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EX-99.1 - EXHIBIT 99.1 - RELEASE - NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORP | njryearendfiscal2017.htm |
8-K - 8-K - EARNINGS FY2017 - NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORP | form8-kxfy2017earnings.htm |
Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2017 Update
November 21, 2017
2
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, Section 21E of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. NJR cautions readers that the assumptions forming the
basis for forward-looking statements include many factors that are beyond NJR’s ability to control or estimate precisely, such as estimates of future market
conditions and the behavior of other market participants. Words such as “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “projects,” “may,” “will,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,”
“should” and similar expressions may identify forward-looking statements and such forward-looking statements are made based upon management’s current
expectations, assumptions and beliefs as of this date concerning future developments and their potential effect upon NJR. There can be no assurance that future
developments will be in accordance with management’s expectations, assumptions and beliefs or that the effect of future developments on NJR will be those
anticipated by management. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, certain statements regarding NJR’s NFE guidance for
fiscal 2018, forecasted contribution of business segments to fiscal 2018 NFE, future NJNG customer growth, future NJR capital expenditures and infrastructure
investments, NJRCEV’s ITC-eligible projects and demand for residential solar, SREC prices and electricity sales future base rate cases, earnings and dividend
growth, the ability to close and successfully implement the Adelphia Gateway acquisition, as well as the SRL and PennEast Pipeline projects.
The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from NJR’s expectations include, but are not limited to, risks associated with our investments in
clean energy projects, including the availability of regulatory and tax incentives, the availability of viable projects, our eligibility for ITCs and PTCs, the future
market for SRECs and electricity prices, and operational risks related to projects in service; the ability to obtain governmental and regulatory approvals, land-use
rights, electric grid connection (in the case of clean energy projects) and/or financing for the construction, development and operation of our unregulated energy
investments and NJNG’s infrastructure projects in a timely manner; risks associated with acquisitions and the related integration of acquired assets with our
current operations; volatility of natural gas and other commodity prices and their impact on NJNG customer usage, NJNG’s BGSS incentive programs, our Energy
Services segment operations and on our risk management efforts; the level and rate at which NJNG’s costs and expenses are incurred and the extent to which
they are approved for recovery from customers through the regulatory process, including through future base rate case filings; the impact of a disallowance of
recovery of environmental-related expenditures and other regulatory changes; the performance of our subsidiaries; operating risks incidental to handling, storing,
transporting and providing customers with natural gas; access to adequate supplies of natural gas and dependence on third-party storage and transportation
facilities for natural gas supply; the regulatory and pricing policies of federal and state regulatory agencies; timing of qualifying for ITCs and PTCs due to delays or
failures to complete planned solar and wind energy projects and the resulting effect on our effective tax rate and earnings; the results of legal or administrative
proceedings with respect to claims, rates, environmental issues, gas cost prudence reviews and other matters; risks related to cyberattack or failure of information
technology systems; changes in rating agency requirements and/or credit ratings and their effect on availability and cost of capital to our company; the ability to
comply with current and future regulatory requirements; the impact of volatility in the equity and credit markets on our access to capital; the impact to the asset
values and resulting higher costs and funding obligations of our pension and postemployment benefit plans as a result of potential downturns in the financial
markets, lower discount rates, revised actuarial assumptions or impacts associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; commercial and
wholesale credit risks, including the availability of creditworthy customers and counterparties, and liquidity in the wholesale energy trading market; accounting
effects and other risks associated with hedging activities and use of derivatives contracts; the ability to optimize our physical assets; any potential need to record
a valuation allowance for our deferred tax assets; changes to tax laws and regulations; weather and economic conditions; the ability to comply with debt
covenants; demographic changes in NJR’s service territory and their effect on NJR’s customer growth; the impact of natural disasters, terrorist activities and other
extreme events on our operations and customers; the costs of compliance with present and future environmental laws, including potential climate change-related
legislation; environmental-related and other uncertainties related to litigation or administrative proceedings; risks related to our employee workforce; and risks
associated with the management of our joint ventures and partnerships, and investment in a master limited partnership. The aforementioned factors are detailed
in the “Risk Factors” sections of our Form 10-K that we filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on November 21, 2017, which is available on
the SEC’s website at sec.gov. Information included in this presentation is representative as of today only, and while NJR periodically reassesses material trends
and uncertainties affecting NJR’s results of operations and financial condition in connection with its preparation of management’s discussion and analysis of
results of operations and financial condition contained in its Quarterly and Annual Reports filed with the SEC, NJR does not, by including this statement, assume
any obligation to review or revise any particular forward-looking statement referenced herein in light of future events.
.
3
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This presentation includes the non-GAAP measure, NFE. As an indicator of the Company’s operating performance, this measure should not be considered an
alternative to, or more meaningful than, GAAP measures, such as cash flow, net income, operating income or earnings per share.
NFE excludes unrealized gains or losses on derivative instruments related to the Company’s unregulated subsidiaries and certain realized gains and losses on
derivative instruments related to natural gas that has been placed into storage at NJRES, net of applicable tax adjustments, as described below. Volatility
associated with the change in value of these financial and physical commodity contracts is reported in the income statement in the current period. In order to
manage its business, NJR views its results without the impacts of the unrealized gains and losses, and certain realized gains and losses, caused by changes in
value of these financial instruments and physical commodity contracts prior to the completion of the planned transaction because it shows changes in value
currently as opposed to when the planned transaction ultimately is settled. An annual estimated effective tax rate is calculated for NFE purposes and any
necessary quarterly tax adjustment is applied to NJRCEV, as such adjustment is related to tax credits generated by NJRCEV.
Management uses NFE as a supplemental measure to other GAAP results to provide a more complete understanding of the Company’s performance.
Management believes this non-GAAP measure is more reflective of the Company’s business model, provides transparency to investors and enables
period-to-period comparability of financial performance. In providing fiscal 2018 earnings guidance, management is aware that there could be
differences between reported GAAP earnings and NFE due to matters such as, but not limited to, the positions of our energy-related derivatives.
Management is not able to reasonably estimate the aggregate impact of these items on reported earnings and therefore is not able to provide a
reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP equivalent for its operating earnings guidance without unreasonable efforts. For a full discussion of our non-
GAAP financial measures, please see NJR’s most recent Form 10-K, Item 7. This information has been provided pursuant to the requirements of SEC
Regulation G.
4
Fiscal 2017 Accomplishments
Financial
Performance
• Fiscal 2017 NFE per share of $1.73* compared with $1.61 last year, an
increase of 7.5 percent; met guidance of $1.65-$1.75 per share
• Segment contributions met expectations
• Strong customer and utility gross margin growth at NJNG
• 16 percent increase in residential solar customers at NJRCEV
• NJRES acquired marketing business from Talen Energy
• Southern Reliability Link moving forward
• PennEast projects received final EIS and submitted N.J. DEP application
• Placed five commercial solar projects in service; 131 MW of total
installed capacity
• Annual dividend rate per share increased 6.9 percent
• 22nd consecutive year of dividend growth
• One-year total return of 31.7 percent** vs. PGA of 15.8 percent**
Infrastructure
Highlights
Customer
Growth
Attractive
Dividend and
Return
* A reconciliation from NFE to net income is set forth in the Appendix on Slide 18.
** Assumes dividends reinvested.
PGA – Peer Group Average.
5
Annual Dividend Growth Goal of 6 to 8 Percent
• 6.9 percent increase to current $1.09 annual rate approved on September 12, 2017
• 24th dividend increase in past last 22 years
• Dividend payout ratio goal of 60 to 65 percent
$.77 $.81
$.86
$.92
$.96 $1.02
$1.09*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Pa
yo
ut
R
at
io
D
iv
id
en
d
s
Dividends and Payout
Ind. Div Rate Payout
* Dividend payout ratio based on midpoint of NFE guidance.
Dividend Strategy Supported By NFE Growth
6
What is Ahead for Fiscal 2018?
• Fiscal 2018 NFE guidance set at $1.75-$1.85 per share
• Long-term NFEPS growth rate of 5 to 9 percent
• A new administration in New Jersey
• Energy infrastructure projects move forward: SRL, PennEast,
Adelphia Gateway
SRL: Remaining road opening permits and approvals
PennEast received final EIS and anticipates receiving its
Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity from FERC
in the near term
Agreement signed to acquire IEC pipeline from Talen Energy
7
55-75 percent of 2018 NFE Expected to be
Generated from Regulated Businesses
Projected Diversified Sources of Fiscal 2018 NFE
New Jersey
Natural Gas
50-60%
NJR
Midstream
5-15%
NJR Energy
Services
5-10%
NJR Home
Services/
Other
1-3%
NJR Clean
Energy
Ventures
20-30%
Regulated
businesses
8
Adelphia Gateway Project is a Strategic Fit for NJR
• Converts an existing oil pipeline to natural gas
• Utilizes existing infrastructure, brownfield
locations and rights-of-way
— No anticipated impacts to wetlands or
farmland
— Minimal impact on the environment
• Creates new gas supply to constrained
markets through increased delivery
connections
— Utility customers
— Natural gas-powered generation
— Industrial and commercial customers
• Offers opportunity to serve new demand
• Supports economic growth and job creation
9
Growth and Value Drivers at New Jersey Natural Gas
• Strategic Value
—Attractive service territory
—Constructive regulation
—Regulatory incentives
—Infrastructure investments
• Disciplined Execution
—Safe, reliable service
—High customer satisfaction
• Growth Opportunities
—Growing customer base
—Annual recovery of infrastructure
expenditures
—Investment in rate base projects
Morris
• Parsippany
NEW YORK
CITY
Monmouth
• Asbury Park
Ocean
• Toms River
Burlington
PHILADELPHIA
10
SREC Hedging Status
Pct. Hedged: 97% 85% 29%
Average Price: $222 $190 $174
Current Price (EY): $203 $201 $193
As of November 16, 2017. Source: InterContinental Exchange (ICE)
213 223
76
-
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
EY18 EY19 EY20
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
of
S
RE
Cs
Energy Year - Operational & Under Construction Facilities
Hedged Forecasted Sales
220
265263
NJRCEV mitigates price risk through a hedging program to
stabilize revenue
11
Fiscal 2017 Fourth Quarter and Year-to-Date NFE Bridge
$4.1
-$12.5
-$2.1
-$2.2
$.1
-$13.5
$1.1
-$25.0
-$20.0
-$15.0
-$10.0
-$5.0
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
September 30, 2016 NJNG NJR Midstream NJRCEV NJRES HS/Other September 30, 2017
M
ill
io
ns
Three Months Ended September 30, 2017
Higher O&M
AFUDC from
PennEast
Additional sales
due to acquisition
of Talen assets
Change in
effective tax rate
due to sale
leaseback
$149.4
-$3.3
$138.1
$10.8
$3.5
-$3.5
$3.8
$100.0
$110.0
$120.0
$130.0
$140.0
$150.0
$160.0
$170.0
September 30, 2016 NJNG NJR Midstream NJRCEV NJRES HS/Other September 30, 2017
M
ill
io
ns
Twelve Months Ended September 30, 2017
Higher base
rates and
customer
growth
AFUDC from
PennEast
Change in
effective tax
rate due to sale
leaseback
Fewer market
opportunities due
to weather
Higher SREC
prices and more
SRECs
Variances are after tax
12
Our Solar Sale-Leaseback Transaction
• In late fiscal 2017, NJRCEV completed a seven-year, sale leaseback
transaction of new solar assets at Pemberton (II) and Princeton
totaling 13 MW for $32.9 million
• Structure and Benefits
– NJR retains all revenue benefits of the solar farm including SRECs and
electricity sales
– Monetize tax benefits of ITC and bonus depreciation through transfer to
Lessor
– Creates NPV cash flow benefits
– Mitigates NOL/ITC/PTC carryforward
13
NJR Capital Plan
($MM)
2017A 2018E
2019E-2021E
Average
2018-2021
Total
New Customer $39.3 $38.5 $41.0 $161.5
Maintenance 41.9 108.1 93.8 389.6
Cost of Removal/Other 44.1 57.1 22.0 123.1
SAFE II 39.8 35.9 39.3 153.8
NJ RISE 8.7 28.2 8.0 52.2
SRL** 3.8 132.0 30.2 162.2
Total NJNG $177.6 $399.8 $234.3 $1,042.4
PennEast** $27.1 $34.8 $153.7 $188.5
Adelphia Gateway** 0.0 10.0 290.0 300.0
Midstream $27.1 $44.8 $443.7 $488.5
Residential Solar $37.9 $41.5 $45.6 $178.3
Commercial Solar 51.3 52.0 67.9 255.7
Subtotal $89.2 $93.5 $113.5 $434.0
Sale leaseback Solar** $31.1 $43.8 $21.4 $65.2
Total NJRCEV * $120.3 $137.3 $134.9 $499.2
NJRES (Talen Marketing) $55.7
GRAND TOTAL $380.7 $581.9 $812.9 $2,030.1
As of September 30, 2017
* Based on projects qualifying for federal tax credits.
** Capital spending beyond Fiscal 2018 occurs in Fiscal 2019 only (no average).
14
NJR Sources and Uses of Capital
$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
$800.0
$900.0
$1,000.0
Sources Uses Sources Uses Sources Uses
M
ill
io
ns
Cash Flows
LT Debt Equity CFFO Capex Dividends
Capital Plan Supports Infrastructure Investments,
While Maintaining Strong Balance Sheet
2017A 2018E 2019E
15
Effects of Hypothetical Corporate Tax Rate Reduction on NJR
Income Statement EPS Impact
NJNG net income* Flat
Non-regulated net income Annual Increase
Revaluation of net deferred tax liabilities, non-regulated One-Time Increase
Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Impact
Equity
(Impact of one-time revaluation of non-regulated deferred tax
liabilities + earnings increase)
Increase
Net deferred tax liabilities Decrease
Other Impact
Tax Appetite Decrease
* Assumes similar treatment as in 1986 corporate tax reduction.
16
Our Path to Future Growth
Fiscal 2017
NJNG
Base rate case completed
Customer growth
CIP
BGSS incentives
SAFE
SAVEGREEN
NJ RISE
SRL Pinelands approval
Clean Energy
Continued solar and
wind investment
More SRECs
Ringer Hill wind farm in
service
Midstream
PennEast received EIS
FERC Quorum
Energy Services
Physical natural gas
services
Fiscal 2018
NJNG
SAFE II commences
NJ RISE expenditures
increase
Base rate case filing
preparation
Clean Energy
Solar investments
continue
More SRECs
Midstream
PennEast FERC final
approval expected
Adelphia Gateway
pipeline
acquisition/conversion
Fiscal 2019
NJNG
SRL in service
SAFE II continues
NJ RISE expenditures
increase
Base rate case filing
Clean Energy
Solar investments
continue
More SRECs
Midstream
PennEast
Adelphia Gateway
Fiscal 2020
NJNG
New Infrastructure
programs
Clean Energy
Solar investments
continue
More SRECs
Midstream
PennEast
Adelphia Gateway
As of November 21, 2017
17
APPENDIX
18
Reconciliation to Non-GAAP Measures
A reconciliation of NFE for the three and twelve months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016 to net income is provided below:
19
NJR Projected Cash Flows
$MM 2017A 2018E 2019E
Cash Flow from Operations $248.1 $337.0 $307.4
Uses of Funds
Capital expenditures - NJNG/other ($178.7) ($399.8) ($236.3)
Capital expenditures - PennEast (27.1) (34.8) (153.7)
Capital expenditures - NJRCEV (149.4) (137.2) (135.2)
Capital expenditures - Adelphia - (10.0) (290.0)
Capital expenditures - Talen Marketing (55.7) - -
Dividends (88.0) (94.1) (102.2)
Total Uses of Funds ($498.9) ($675.9) ($917.4)
Financing Activities
Common stock proceeds, net $11.1 $83.0 $163.0
Debt proceeds/other* 239.6 255.9 447.0
Total Financing Activities $250.7 $338.9 $610.0
As of September 30, 2017
* Includes sale leaseback and PennEast project finance.