Attached files
| file | filename |
|---|---|
| 8-K - 8-K - Aleris Corp | alerisform8-k4q16earningsr.htm |
| EX-99.1 - EXHIBIT 99.1 - Aleris Corp | a4q16earningsrelease.htm |
1
Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2016
Earnings Presentation
March 3, 2017
2
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This information is current only as of its date and may have changed. We undertake no obligation to update this information in light of new information, future events or otherwise. This information contains
certain forecasts and other forward looking information concerning our business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations, and we are not making any representation or warranty that this
information is accurate or complete. See “Forward-Looking Information” below.
BASIS OF PRESENTATION
We are a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Aleris Corporation. Aleris Corporation currently conducts its business and operations through us and our consolidated subsidiaries. As used in this presentation,
unless otherwise specified or the context otherwise requires, “Aleris,” “we,” “our,” “us,” “ and the “Company” refer to Aleris International, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. Notwithstanding the
foregoing, with respect to the historical financial information and other data presented in this presentation, unless otherwise specified or the context requires, “Aleris,” “we,” “our,” “us,” and the “Company’
refer to Aleris Corporation. We completed the sale of our recycling and specification alloys and extrusions businesses in the first quarter of 2015. We have reported these businesses as discontinued
operations for all periods presented, and reclassified the results of operations of these businesses as discontinued operations. Except as otherwise indicated, the discussion of the Company’s business
and financial information throughout this presentation refers to the Company’s continuing operations and the financial position and results of operations of its continuing operations.
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
Certain statements contained in this presentation are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements under headings with “Outlook” in the title and statements
about our beliefs and expectations and statements containing the words “may,” “could,” “would,” “should,” “will,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “estimate,” “target,” “project,” “look forward to,”
“intend” and similar expressions intended to connote future events and circumstances constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements about, among other things,
the pending acquisition of the Company by Zhongwang USA LLC (the “Merger”), future costs and prices of commodities, production volumes, industry trends, anticipated cost savings, anticipated benefits
from new products, facilities, acquisitions or divestitures, projected results of operations, achievement of production efficiencies, capacity expansions, future prices and demand for our products and
estimated cash flows and sufficiency of cash flows to fund capital expenditures. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ
materially from those contained in or implied by any forward-looking statement. Some of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by
forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following: (1) our ability to successfully implement our business strategy; (2) the success of past and future acquisitions and divestitures; (3)
the cyclical nature of the aluminum industry, material adverse changes in the aluminum industry or our end-uses, such as global and regional supply and demand conditions for aluminum and aluminum
products, and changes in our customers’ industries; (4) increases in the cost, or limited availability, of raw materials and energy; (5) our ability to enter into effective metal, energy and other commodity
derivatives or arrangements with customers to manage effectively our exposure to commodity price fluctuations and changes in the pricing of metals, especially London Metal Exchange-based aluminum
prices; (6) our ability to generate sufficient cash flows to fund our capital expenditure requirements and to meet our debt service obligations; (7) competitor pricing activity, competition of aluminum with
alternative materials and the general impact of competition in the industry end-uses we serve; (8) our ability to retain the services of certain members of our management; (9) the loss of order volumes
from any of our largest customers; (10) our ability to fulfill our substantial capital investment requirements; (11) our ability to retain customers, a substantial number of whom do not have long-term
contractual arrangements with us; (12) risks of investing in and conducting operations on a global basis, including political, social, economic, currency and regulatory factors; (13) variability in general
economic conditions on a global or regional basis; (14) current environmental liabilities and the cost of compliance with and liabilities under health and safety laws; (15) labor relations (i.e., disruptions,
strikes or work stoppages) and labor costs; (16) our internal controls over financial reporting and our disclosure controls and procedures may not prevent all possible errors that could occur; (17) our levels
of indebtedness and debt service obligations, including changes in our credit ratings, material increases in our cost of borrowing or the failure of financial institutions to fulfill their commitments to us under
committed credit facilities; (18) our ability to access the credit or capital markets; (19) the possibility that we may incur additional indebtedness in the future; (20) limitations on operating our business as a
result of covenant restrictions under our indebtedness, and our ability to pay amounts due under the Senior Notes; (21) risks related to the Merger (including the possibility that the merger may not be
consummated or, that, if the Merger does close, our stockholders may not realize the anticipated benefits from the Merger) and (22) other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange
Commission, including the sections entitled “Risk Factors” contained therein. Investors, potential investors and other readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking
statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether in
response to new information, futures events or otherwise, except as otherwise required by law.
NON-GAAP INFORMATION
The non-GAAP financial measures contained in this presentation (including, without limitation, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, commercial margin, and variations thereof) are not measures of financial
performance calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP and should not be considered as alternatives to net income and loss attributable to Aleris Corporation or any other performance measure derived in
accordance with GAAP or as alternatives to cash flows from operating activities as a measure of our liquidity. Non-GAAP measures have limitations as analytical tools and should be considered in
addition to, not in isolation or as a substitute for, or as superior to, our measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Management believes that certain non-GAAP financial
measures may provide investors with additional meaningful comparisons between current results and results in prior periods. Management uses non-GAAP financial measures as performance metrics
and believes these measures provide additional information commonly used by the holders of our senior debt securities and parties to the 2015 ABL Facility with respect to the ongoing performance of our
underlying business activities, as well as our ability to meet our future debt service, capital expenditure and working capital needs. We calculate our non-GAAP financial measures by eliminating the
impact of a number of items we do not consider indicative of our ongoing operating performance, and certain other items. You are encouraged to evaluate each adjustment and the reasons we consider it
appropriate for supplemental analysis. See “Appendix.”
INDUSTRY INFORMATION
Information regarding market and industry statistics contained in this presentation is based on information from third party sources as well as estimates prepared by us using certain assumptions and our
knowledge of these industries. Our estimates, in particular as they relate to our general expectations concerning the aluminum industry, involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to changes based
on various factors, including those discussed under “Risk Factors” in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Forward-Looking and Other Information
3
Fourth Quarter & Full Year Overview
4Q & FY Adjusted EBITDA ($M)1
$43
$223 $205
$39
4Q16 4Q15 2015 2016
Adjusted EBITDA per ton ($/t)1
$208 $227
$271 $247
4Q16 4Q15 2015 2016
4Q16 Adjusted EBITDA of $43M; Full Year 2016 Adjusted
EBITDA of $205M
Improved operating performance in 4Q16
Significant progress to strategically reposition Aleris into
higher value products in 2016
– Asia Pacific continuing to benefit from growing
aerospace volumes
– Continued progress on North America ABS Project;
on target for all key customer milestones
– Continued strength in B&C; improving scrap
environment
– Signed multi-year Airbus agreement in 2016
Issued additional $250M of 9.5% Senior Secured Notes
due 2021 in February in 2017
Acquisition by Zhongwang USA LLC targeting 1Q17
close
Underlying fundamentals solid despite $22M of YoY currency and metal headwinds
1Excludes discontinued operations
4
Key Global End Uses
1IHS Global Insights, January 2017, 4Q year-over-year growth
Backlogs remain healthy
Weakness in Europe offset by growth in
Asia Pacific
Aerospace
EU Premium Auto builds up 1%1
Continued benefits from lightweighting
trends, stable global volumes
Automotive
Continued customer destocking across
supply chain
EU Auto builds up 1%1
Heat
Exchanger
Aleris Volume Drivers
4Q YoY
Growth
(3%)
(14%)
8%
2016 YoY
Growth
7%
(6%)
(7%)
5
Key Regional End Uses
Healthy industry demand
Return to growth in single family starts
N.A.
Building &
Construction
19%
Expected declines after record 2015
Demand linked to GDP
N.A.
Truck Trailer
Regional demand returned to growth in
2016
YoY growth decelerated in 4Q
EU Regional
Commercial
Plate & Sheet
Planned operational upgrades at
Lewisport limiting available mill time in
2016
Demand linked to GDP & Auto
N.A.
Distribution (18%)
(10%)
2%
Aleris Volume Drivers
7%
(9%)
4Q YoY
Growth
2016 YoY
Growth
(16%)
11%
6
Project remains on target for 2017 ABS shipments
Deployed approximately $350M as of year-end 2016 for North America ABS Project in Lewisport
On target for all key milestones; CALP I successfully producing qualification coils
New wide cold mill in place, in commissioning and running coils
Ongoing investments to upgrade non-ABS facilities, including widening of hot mill in 2017, to
capture additional opportunities
North America ABS Project Update
2014 2015 2016
$13 $153 $185
ABS PROJECT CAPEX ($M)
First CALP Line Wide Cold Mill
7
Adjusted EBITDA Bridge
$43$39
0
10
20
30
40
50
4Q16 Currency/
Translation/
Other
$3
Productivity
$1
Base
Inflation
($4)
Commodity
Inflation
($1)
Metal
Spreads
$3
Price
$2
Volume/Mix
($1)
4Q15
2016 vs. 2015
($M)
$205$223
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 Currency/
Translation/
Other
($7)
Productivity
$9
Base
Inflation
($15)
Commodity
Inflation
$6
Metal
Spreads
($17)
Price
$9
Volume/Mix
($3)
2015
4Q16 vs. 4Q1
8
North America
Higher B&C volumes partially offset by weaker
distribution and truck trailer volumes
Improvement in metal spread environment from
higher aluminum prices
Lewisport throughput impacted by planned outages
related to the North America ABS Project
Volume (kT) Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
4Q16 Performance 4Q Adjusted EBITDA Bridge ($M)
493 486
108 110
4Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
(1%)
1%
$109
$81
$12 $14
4Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
Adj. EBITDA / ton
$221 $167 $110 $129
$12
$2
$2
$14
$18
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
($1)
Metal
Spreads
$1
Price Volume/Mix 4Q15 4Q16 Productivity
$0
Base
Inflation
($2)
Commodity
Inflation
9
Improving metal spreads and scrap trends
Metal Update
$0.35
$0.30
$0.25
$0.20
$0.15
$1.10
$1.05
$1.00
$0.95
$0.90
$0.85
$0.80
$0.75
$0.70
Dec
2016
Sep
2016
Jun
2016
Mar
2016
Dec
2015
Sep
2015
Jun
2015
Mar
2015
Dec
2014
Feb
2017
1Platts, Aleris Management Analysis, February 2017
Weighted Painted Siding, Mixed Low Copper, Sheet Spread P1020 (left axis)
North America Scrap Spreads1
10
Europe
Volumes lower primarily due to aerospace
destocking and year-end HEX weakness
Lower natural gas costs partially offset inflation
Favorable results from annual physical inventory;
Modest benefits from FX
Volume (kT) Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
4Q16 Performance 4Q Adjusted EBITDA Bridge ($M)
$0
$0
$34
$3
$34
$0
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
4Q16 Currency/
Translation/
Other
Productivity Base
Inflation
($2)
Commodity
Inflation
$1
Metal
Spreads
$2
Price Volume/Mix
($4)
4Q15
314 327
79 76
4%
(4%)
4Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
$149 $151
$34 $34
4Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
Adj. EBITDA / ton
$476 $463 $432 $453
11
Asia Pacific
Growth in aerospace volume offset by decrease in
commercial plate volume
Favorable improvement in mix and production
performance drove YoY Adjusted EBITDA growth
Step-change performance improvement reflected in
Adjusted EBITDA / ton
Favorable results from annual physical inventory;
Modest benefits from FX
Volume (kT) Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
4Q16 Performance 4Q Adjusted EBITDA Bridge ($M)
$1.3
$1.3
$0.4
$4.2
$1.3
$0.1$0.0
$0.5
$1.5
$2.5
$3.5
$4.5
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
$0.0
Metal
Spreads
Price
$0.0
Volume/Mix 4Q15 4Q16 Currency/
Translation/
Other
Productivity Base
Inflation
($0.2)
Commodity
Inflation
22 23
6 5
4%
(9%)
4Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
$10
$4
$1
4Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
$0
Adj. EBITDA / ton
NA $460 $224 $787
12
Cash Flow and LTM Working Capital
Net Cash Flow ($M)
77 77 76
71
19%
21%21%21%
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2016 2015 2014 2013
Total LTM Working Capital Days1,2
1Nichols sales and working capital included in 2013 & 2014; See Appendix for more detail
2Pro forma for divestitures of Global Recycling and Extrusions businesses
4Q15 4Q16 2016
Cash provided (used) by Operating Activities $48 ($35) $12
Capital Expenditures (139) (62) (358)
Other (0) 5 4
Net Cash Before Financing ($90) ($92) ($343)
13
Additional 9.5% Senior Secured Notes support liquidity for growth objectives
Capital & Liquidity Overview
12/31/2016 12/31/2016 PF2
Cash $56 $317
Availability under ABL Facility 121 121
Liquidity $176 $437
Capital Structure ($M)
Liquidity Summary ($M)
$91 $82 $96 $88 $74
$201
$276
$42
$20
$107
$225
2014
$121
$14
2013
$188
2012
$62
4Q16 2016
$358
$1
$8
2015
$298
$315
Other Growth
Maintenance
North America ABS Project & Other Upgrades
Capital Expenditures Summary ($M)1
1Excludes discontinued operations CapEx of $75M, $50M, $43M, $15M in 2012-2015
2Pro Forma for issuance of additional 9.5% Senior Secured Notes in February 2017, net of
estimated fees and expenses
3Amounts exclude applicable discounts
4Other excludes $45M of exchangeable notes
5Excludes Non-Recourse China Loan Facilities
6Secured debt includes outstanding ABL Facility balance and 2021 Secured Notes
12/31/2016 12/31/2016 PF2
Cash $56 $317
ABL 255 255
Notes3 990 1,240
Non-Recourse China Loan Facilities3 187 187
Other3,4 6 6
Net Debt $1,383 $1,372
Adjusted EBITDA $205 $205
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA 6.7x 6.7x
Net Recourse Debt5 / Adj. EBITDA 5.8x 5.8x
Net Secured Debt6 / Adj. EBITDA 3.7x 3.6x
14
FY 2017 performance expected to be higher than 2016
1Q17 performance expected to be in line with or slightly above 1Q16
1Q17 lower overall volumes and a lower value-added mix
– North America distribution volumes unfavorably impacted by ABS Project
– Aerospace destocking; lower automotive volumes due to program timing
– B&C demand trends continue
1Q17 favorable scrap spread trends as aluminum prices increase
Aleris Operating System expected to drive favorable productivity as operating
performance improves
2017 Outlook
15
Appendix
16
4Q & FY Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
($M)
2016 2015 2016 2015
Adjusted EBITDA $42.8 $39.3 $205.1 $222.8
Unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments of continuing operations (4.7) (4.4) 19.0 (30.1)
Restructuring charges 0.3 (1.6) (1.5) (10.3)
Unallocated currency exchange gains (losses) on debt 0.3 (2.1) (0.6) 1.0
Stock-based compensation expense (1.8) (1.0) (7.0) (4.8)
Start-up costs (15.5) (6.5) (46.0) (21.1)
Favorable (unfavorable) metal price lag 3.8 1.2 3.2 (18.6)
Loss on extinguishment of debt — — (12.6) (2.0)
Other (1.5) (0.1) (4.5) (14.1)
EBITDA 23.7 24.8 155.1 122.8
Interest expense, net (24.1) (19.4) (82.5) (94.1)
(Provision for) benefit from income taxes (9.5) 6.8 (40.0) 22.7
Depreciation and amortization (26.0) (30.9) (104.9) (123.8)
Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax 1.3 6.1 (3.3) 121.1
Net (loss) income attributable to Aleris Corporation (34.6) (12.6) (75.6) 48.7
Net income from discontinued operations attributable to noncontrolling interest — — — 0.1
Net (loss) income ($34.6) ($12.6) ($75.6) $48.8
For the three months ended
December 31,
For the year ended
December 31,
17
4Q & FY Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation by
Segment
($M)
1Amounts may not foot as they represent the calculated totals based on actual amounts and not the rounded amounts presented in this table
2016 2015 2016 2015
North America
Segment income $16.3 $14.9 $86.1 $107.9
(Favorable) unfavorable metal price lag (2.2) (3.0) (4.7) 1.1
Segment Adjusted EBITDA1 $14.2 $11.9 $81.4 $109.1
Europe
Segment income $35.6 $32.3 $149.4 $131.8
(Favorable) unfavorable metal price lag (1.2) 1.8 1.9 17.4
Segment Adjusted EBITDA1 $34.4 $34.1 $151.3 $149.3
Asia Pacific
Segment income $4.6 $1.3 $10.8 —
Favorable metal price lag (0.4) — (0.4) —
Segment Adjusted EBITDA $4.2 $1.3 $10.4 —
For the three months ended
December 31,
For the year ended
December 31,
18
4Q & FY Adjusted EBITDA Per Ton
Reconciliation
($M, except per ton measures, volume in thousands of tons)
*Result is not meaningful
1See prior slides for a reconciliation to the applicable GAAP financial measures
2016 2015 2016 2015
Metric tons of finished product shipped:
North America 109.5 108.5 486.3 492.8
Europe 75.9 78.9 326.7 313.6
Asia Pacific 5.3 5.8 22.6 21.8
Intra-entity shipments (1.7) (4.2) (6.1) (5.8)
Total metric tons of finished product shipped 189.0 189.0 829.5 822.4
Segment Adjusted EBITDA:1
North America $14.2 $11.9 $81.4 $109.1
Europe $34.4 $34.1 $151.3 $149.3
Asia Pacific $4.2 $1.3 $10.4 —
Corporate ($10.0) ($8.0) ($38.0) ($35.6)
Total Adjusted EBITDA $42.8 $39.3 $205.1 $222.8
Segment Adjusted EBITDA per metric ton:
North America $128.7 $110.1 $167.2 $221.3
Europe $453.0 $432.3 $463.0 $476.0
Asia Pacific $787.1 $224.1 $459.6 *
Aleris Corporation $226.5 $208.1 $247.2 $270.9
For the three months ended
December 31,
For the year ended
December 31,
19
Robust risk management discipline minimizes commodity price exposure
Metal Hedging Practices
Pass through pricing and tolling
Minimize inventory levels
Sell 100% of open inventory forward
LME and regional premium volatility
(inventory exposure)
Risk Impact Mitigation Strategy
Lowers margin volatility
Minimizes earnings impact
Risk limited to turn of inventory
(“metal lag”)
Match sales with physical purchases or LME
forwards
Attempt to minimize LT fixed price sales
Forward price sales Locks in rolling margin
Reduces multiyear dated
derivatives
Adjusted EBITDA vs. Metal price lag
Adj. EBITDA including metal lag $61 $39 $64 $40 $48 $62 $53 $47
(–) Income / (expense) from metal
price lag
6 (22) (4) 1 4 (3) (1) 4
Adj. EBITDA as reported $55 $60 $68 $39 $45 $65 $53 $43
1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016
Metal price lag impact on gross
profit
($6) ($16) ($24) $0 $11 $6 $8 $8
(+) Realized (losses) / gains on
metal derivatives
12 (6) 20 1 (7) (9) (9) (5)
Favorable / (unfavorable) metal
price lag net of realized
derivative gains / losses
$6 ($22) ($4) $1 $4 ($3) ($1) $4
20
Working Capital Excluding Nichols
84
78
21%
23%
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2013 2014
Total Working Capital Days1
1Excludes management estimates of Nichols working capital and sales prior to acquisition