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8-K - 8-K - United Airlines Holdings, Inc.d802053d8k.htm
EX-99.2 - EX-99.2 - United Airlines Holdings, Inc.d802053dex992.htm

Exhibit 99.1

 

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Investor Update

   Issue Date: October 8, 2014

This investor update provides guidance and certain forward looking statements about United Continental Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “UAL”). The information in this investor update contains preliminary financial and operational results for the Company for third-quarter 2014.

Capacity

The Company’s third-quarter 2014 consolidated system available seat miles (“ASMs”) increased an estimated 0.5% as compared to the same period in the prior year. UAL’s third-quarter 2014 consolidated domestic ASMs decreased approximately 1.2% and consolidated international ASMs increased an estimated 2.7% versus the third quarter of 2013.

Revenue

The Company’s third-quarter 2014 consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile (“PRASM”) increased approximately 3.5% - 4.0% percent versus the third quarter of 2013.

The Company expects its third-quarter 2014 cargo revenue to be between $225 million and $245 million and expects its third-quarter 2014 other revenue to be between $1.00 billion and $1.02 billion.

Non-Fuel Expense

UAL expects its third-quarter consolidated cost per ASM (“CASM”), excluding profit sharing, fuel, third-party business expense and special charges, to increase approximately 1.0% year-over-year.

The Company expects to record approximately $65 million of third-party business expense in the third quarter of 2014. Corresponding third-party business revenue associated with third-party business activities is recorded in other revenue.

Fuel Expense

UAL estimates its consolidated fuel price, including the impact of cash-settled hedges, to be $3.01 per gallon for third-quarter 2014.

Nonoperating Expense

The Company estimates nonoperating expense to be between $150 million and $170 million, excluding non-cash gains/losses on fuel hedges, for third-quarter 2014.

Profit Sharing and Share-Based Compensation

For 2014, the Company will pay approximately 10% of total adjusted earnings as profit sharing to employees for adjusted earnings up to a 6.9% adjusted pre-tax margin and approximately 14% for any adjusted earnings above that amount. Adjusted earnings for the purposes of profit sharing are calculated as GAAP pre-tax earnings, excluding special items, profit sharing expense and share-based compensation program expense. Share-based compensation expense for the purposes of the profit sharing calculation is estimated to be $66 million year to date through the third quarter of 2014.

Capital Expenditures and Scheduled Debt and Capital Lease Payments

The Company expects between $470 million and $490 million of gross capital expenditures in the third quarter of 2014, which is below previous guidance. The difference versus prior guidance is primarily attributable to certain capital expenditures having shifted from the third to the fourth quarter of 2014. There is no impact to full-year 2014 capital expenditure guidance.

The Company expects debt and capital lease payments to total approximately $1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2014. The difference versus prior guidance is primarily attributable to the redemption of the entire $800 million of 6.75% notes due 2015. Within the quarter, the company also issued an additional $500 million tranche of term loan debt.

Liquidity Position

UAL ended the third quarter of 2014 with approximately $6.8 billion in unrestricted liquidity comprised of approximately $5.5 billion of unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments and $1.35 billion in undrawn commitments under its revolving credit facility.


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Company Update

Third-Quarter 2014 Operational Update

 

     Estimated 3Q 2014      Year-Over-Year %
Change

Higher/(Lower)
 

Capacity (Million ASMs)

     

Mainline Capacity

     

Domestic

     27,996         (1.3 %) 

Atlantic

     13,363         1.3

Pacific

     10,287         2.7

Latin America

     5,272         6.8

Total Mainline Capacity

     56,919         0.7

Regional1

     8,460         (0.8 %) 

Consolidated Capacity

     

Domestic System

     36,179         (1.2 %) 

International System

     29,199         2.7

Total Consolidated Capacity

     65,378         0.5

Traffic (Million RPMs)

     

Mainline Traffic

     

Domestic

     24,381         (1.1 %) 

Atlantic

     11,477         (0.5 %) 

Pacific

     8,606         1.1

Latin America

     4,504         10.1

Total Mainline Traffic

     48,968         0.4

Regional Traffic1

     7,097         0.2

Consolidated Traffic

     

Domestic System

     31,260         (0.8 %) 

International System

     24,804         1.8

Total Consolidated Traffic

     56,064         0.4

Load Factor

     

Mainline Load Factor

     

Domestic

     87.1%         0.2   pts. 

Atlantic

     85.9%         (1.5 ) pts. 

Pacific

     83.7%         (1.3 ) pts. 

Latin America

     85.4%         2.5   pts. 

Total Mainline Load Factor

     86.0%         (0.3 ) pts. 

Regional Load Factor1

     83.9%         0.9   pts. 

Consolidated Load Factor

     

Domestic System

     86.4%         0.4   pts. 

International System

     84.9%         (0.7 ) pts. 

Total Consolidated Load Factor

     85.8%         (0.1 ) pts. 

 

1. Regional results reflect flights operated under capacity purchase agreements

(more)


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Company Update

Third-Quarter 2014 Financial Update

 

     Estimated
3Q 2014
  Year-Over-Year %
Change
Higher/(Lower)

Revenue (¢/ASM, except Cargo and Other Revenue)

    

Mainline Passenger Unit Revenue

   12.98 - 13.04   4.4% - 4.9%

Consolidated Passenger Unit Revenue

   14.19 - 14.26   3.5% - 4.0%

Cargo Revenue ($M)

   $225 - $245  

Other Revenue ($B)

   $1.00 - $1.02  

Operating Expense1 (¢/ASM)

    

Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing & Third-Party Business Expenses

   13.11 - 13.19   (0.8%) - (0.2%)

Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing & Third-Party Business Expenses

   13.95 - 14.03   (1.3%) - (0.7%)

Non-Fuel Expense1 (¢/ASM)

    

Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing, Fuel & Third-Party Business Expenses

   8.67 - 8.75   1.5% - 2.5%

Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing, Fuel & Third-Party Business Expenses

   9.15 - 9.24   Approximately 1%

Third-Party Business Expenses ($M)

   $65  

Select Expense Measures ($M)

    

Aircraft Rent

   $230  

Depreciation and Amortization

   $420  

Fuel Expense

    

Mainline Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

   846  

Consolidated Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

   1,037  

Consolidated Fuel Price Excluding Hedges (Price per Gallon)

   $3.01  

Consolidated Fuel Price Including Cash-settled Hedges (Price per Gallon)

   $3.01  

Nonoperating Expense ($M)

    

Nonoperating Expense1,2

   $150 - $170  

Income Taxes

    

Effective Income Tax Rate

   0%  

Capital Expenditures ($M)

    

Gross Capital Expenditures incl. Purchase Deposits

   $470 - $490  

Debt and Capital Lease Payments ($M)

   $1,100  

 

1. Excludes special items
2. Excludes non-cash gains/losses on fuel hedges


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Share Count

These share count charts are based upon several assumptions including market stock price and number of shares outstanding. The number of shares used in the actual earnings per share calculation will likely be different from those set forth below.

 

     3Q 2014  
     (Estimated)  
     Basic Share Count      Diluted Share Count      Interest Add-back  

Net Income

   (in millions)      (in millions)      (in $ millions)  

Less than or equal to $0

     370         370       $ —     

$1 million - $43 million

     370         371         —     

$44 million - $71 million

     370         377         1   

$72 million - $330 million

     370         388         3   

$331 million or greater

     370         392         7   

Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliations

UAL evaluates its financial performance utilizing various accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”) and Non-GAAP financial measures, including net income/loss, net earnings/loss per share and CASM, among others. Non-GAAP financial measures are presented because they provide management and investors the ability to measure and monitor UAL’s performance on a consistent basis. CASM is a common metric used in the airline industry to measure an airline’s cost structure and efficiency. Pursuant to SEC Regulation G, UAL has included the following reconciliation of reported Non-GAAP financial measures to comparable financial measures reported on a GAAP basis. UAL believes that excluding fuel costs from certain measures is useful to investors because it provides an additional measure of management’s performance excluding the effects of a significant cost item over which management has limited influence. UAL believes that adjusting for special charges is useful to investors because they are non-recurring charges not indicative of UAL’s ongoing performance. UAL also believes that excluding third-party business expenses, such as maintenance, ground handling and catering services for third parties, fuel sales and non-air mileage redemptions, provides more meaningful disclosure because these expenses are not directly related to UAL’s core business. In addition, UAL believes that excluding non-cash (gains)/losses on fuel hedges from nonoperating expense is useful because it allows investors to better understand the impact of settled hedges on a given period’s results.

 

     Estimated
3Q 2014
 
     Low      High  

Mainline Unit Cost (¢/ASM)

     

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing

     13.22         13.30   

Special Charges (a)

     —           —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Charges (b)

     13.22         13.30   

Less: Third-Party Business Expenses

     0.11         0.11   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses & Special Charges (b)

     13.11         13.19   

Less: Fuel Expense (c)

     4.45         4.45   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses, Fuel & Special Charges (b)

     8.66         8.74   
     Low      High  

Consolidated Unit Cost (¢/ASM)

     

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing

     14.02         14.11   

Special Charges (a)

     —           —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Charges (b)

     14.02         14.11   

Less: Third-Party Business Expenses

     0.09         0.09   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses & Special Charges (b)

     13.93         14.02   

Less: Fuel Expense (c)

     4.78         4.78   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses, Fuel & Special Charges (b)

     9.15         9.24   
     Low      High  

Nonoperating Expense ($M)

     

Nonoperating expense

   $ 261       $ 281   

Exclude: Non-cash (gains)/losses on fuel hedges

     111         111   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Nonoperating expense, adjusted (b)

   $ 150       $ 170   

 

(a) Operating expense per ASM – CASM excludes special charges, the impact of certain primarily non-cash impairment, severance and other similar accounting charges. While the Company anticipates that it will record such special charges throughout the year and may record profit sharing, at this time the Company is unable to provide an estimate of these charges with reasonable certainty.
(b) These financial measures provide management and investors the ability to measure and monitor the Company’s performance on a consistent basis.
(c) Both the cost and availability of fuel are subject to many economic and political factors and are therefore beyond the Company’s control.


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Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:

Certain statements included in this investor update are forward-looking and thus reflect our current expectations and beliefs with respect to certain current and future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are and will be subject to many risks and uncertainties relating to our operations and business environment that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Words such as “expects,” “will,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “indicates,” “believes,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Additionally, forward-looking statements include statements that do not relate solely to historical facts, such as statements which identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or uncertainties or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this report are based upon information available to us on the date of this report. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; our ability to execute our operational plans, including optimizing our revenue; our ability to control our costs, including realizing benefits from our resource optimization efforts, cost reduction initiatives and fleet replacement programs; our ability to utilize our net operating losses; our ability to attract and retain customers; demand for transportation in the markets in which we operate; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; demand for travel and the impact that global economic conditions have on customer travel patterns; excessive taxation and the inability to offset future taxable income; general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices, costs of aircraft fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); our ability to cost-effectively hedge against increases in the price of aircraft fuel; any potential realized or unrealized gains or losses related to fuel or currency hedging programs; the effects of any hostilities, act of war or terrorist attack; the ability of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; industry consolidation or changes in airline alliances; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; our capacity decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; U.S. or foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including open skies agreements and environmental regulations); labor costs; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of the collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups; any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; weather conditions; the possibility that expected merger synergies will not be realized or will not be realized within the expected time period; and other risks and uncertainties set forth under Item 1A., Risk Factors, of UAL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the SEC.

For further questions, contact Investor Relations at (872) 825-8610 or investorrelations@united.com