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| 8-K - 8-K - PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ | a8-koctober2018earningsrel.htm |
 | NEWS RELEASE | ||
The Progressive Corporation | Company Contact: | ||
6300 Wilson Mills Road | Julia Hornack | ||
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 | (440) 395-2164 | ||
PROGRESSIVE REPORTS OCTOBER RESULTS
MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO -- November 14, 2018 -- The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) today reported the following results for October 2018:
October | October | |||||||||
(millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited) | 2018 | 2017 | Change | |||||||
Net premiums written | $ | 3,251.4 | $ | 2,758.2 | 18 | % | ||||
Net premiums earned | $ | 3,110.4 | $ | 2,587.7 | 20 | % | ||||
Net income (loss) attributable to Progressive | $ | (31.7 | ) | $ | 160.1 | (120) | % | |||
Per share available to common shareholders1 | $ | (0.06 | ) | $ | 0.27 | (121) | % | |||
Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities | $ | (259.9 | ) | $ | 2.2 | NM | ||||
Combined ratio | 95.9 | 92.5 | 3.4 pts. | |||||||
Average equivalent common shares1 | 582.8 | 585.6 | 0 | % | ||||||
NM = Not Meaningful
1Since we reported a net loss, the amounts reported for October 2018 represent basic earnings per share and basic average equivalent shares since the calculated diluted earnings per share was antidilutive. For October 2017, amounts are reported on a diluted basis.
(thousands; unaudited) | October | October | |||
2018 | 2017 | Change | |||
Policies in Force | |||||
Vehicle businesses: | |||||
Agency – auto | 6,309.9 | 5,590.0 | 13 % | ||
Direct – auto | 6,947.2 | 5,974.7 | 16 % | ||
Total personal auto | 13,257.1 | 11,564.7 | 15 % | ||
Total special lines | 4,406.3 | 4,385.7 | 0 % | ||
Total Personal Lines | 17,663.4 | 15,950.4 | 11 % | ||
Total Commercial Lines | 696.2 | 643.5 | 8 % | ||
Property business | 1,893.0 | 1,409.4 | 34 % | ||
Progressive offers personal and commercial insurance throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Our Commercial Lines business writes primary liability, physical damage, and other auto-related insurance for autos and trucks owned and/or operated predominantly by small businesses. Our Property business writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters.
See the “Comprehensive Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and
the "Monthly Commentary" at the end of this release for additional discussion.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENT
October 2018
(millions)
(unaudited)
Current Month | Comments on Monthly Results1 | ||||
Net premiums written | $ | 3,251.4 | |||
Revenues: | |||||
Net premiums earned | $ | 3,110.4 | |||
Investment income | 77.0 | ||||
Net realized gains (losses) on securities: | |||||
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales | (14.5 | ) | |||
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities | (229.6 | ) | |||
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings | (15.8 | ) | Represents write down on an additional investment in a federal renewable energy tax credit fund. | ||
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities | (259.9 | ) | |||
Fees and other revenues | 47.0 | ||||
Service revenues | 13.6 | ||||
Total revenues | 2,988.1 | ||||
Expenses: | |||||
Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 2,371.4 | ||||
Policy acquisition costs | 257.7 | ||||
Other underwriting expenses | 400.6 | ||||
Investment expenses | 2.4 | ||||
Service expenses | 11.1 | ||||
Interest expense | 14.3 | ||||
Total expenses | 3,057.5 | ||||
Income (loss) before income taxes | (69.4 | ) | |||
Provision (benefit) for income taxes | (32.3 | ) | Includes $17.1 million of tax benefits from the ratable portion of tax benefits related to federal renewable energy tax credit fund investments. | ||
Net income (loss) | (37.1 | ) | |||
Net (income) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest (NCI) | 5.4 | ||||
Net income (loss) attributable to Progressive | (31.7 | ) | |||
Other comprehensive income (loss) | |||||
Changes in: | |||||
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities | (49.0 | ) | |||
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions | 0 | ||||
Other comprehensive income (loss) | (49.0 | ) | |||
Other comprehensive (income) loss attributable to NCI | 0.4 | ||||
Total comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Progressive | $ | (80.3 | ) | ||
1 See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release. For a description of our financial reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2017 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2017 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS
October 2018
(millions)
(unaudited)
Year-to-Date | |||||||||
2018 | 2017 | % Change | |||||||
Net premiums written | $ | 27,919.5 | $ | 23,137.7 | 21 | ||||
Revenues: | |||||||||
Net premiums earned | $ | 25,849.1 | $ | 21,471.7 | 20 | ||||
Investment income | 653.5 | 457.8 | 43 | ||||||
Net realized gains (losses) on securities: | |||||||||
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales | 191.3 | 123.7 | 55 | ||||||
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities | (235.5 | ) | 0.3 | NM | |||||
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings | (49.0 | ) | (62.5 | ) | (22) | ||||
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities | (93.2 | ) | 61.5 | (252) | |||||
Fees and other revenues | 389.4 | 310.4 | 25 | ||||||
Service revenues | 133.2 | 104.9 | 27 | ||||||
Other gains (losses) | 0 | 0.2 | (100) | ||||||
Total revenues | 26,932.0 | 22,406.5 | 20 | ||||||
Expenses: | |||||||||
Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 18,140.6 | 15,801.7 | 15 | ||||||
Policy acquisition costs | 2,147.4 | 1,770.3 | 21 | ||||||
Other underwriting expenses | 3,523.6 | 2,915.8 | 21 | ||||||
Investment expenses | 20.4 | 20.1 | 1 | ||||||
Service expenses | 113.2 | 90.5 | 25 | ||||||
Interest expense | 134.8 | 129.5 | 4 | ||||||
Total expenses | 24,080.0 | 20,727.9 | 16 | ||||||
Income before income taxes | 2,852.0 | 1,678.6 | 70 | ||||||
Provision for income taxes | 527.9 | 501.5 | 5 | ||||||
Net income | 2,324.1 | 1,177.1 | 97 | ||||||
Net (income) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest (NCI) | (5.2 | ) | (1.1 | ) | 373 | ||||
Net income attributable to Progressive | 2,318.9 | 1,176.0 | 97 | ||||||
Other comprehensive income (loss) | |||||||||
Changes in: | |||||||||
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities | (292.6 | ) | 330.8 | (188) | |||||
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions | 0.6 | (5.5 | ) | (111) | |||||
Foreign currency translation adjustment | 0 | 0.6 | (100) | ||||||
Other comprehensive income (loss) | (292.0 | ) | 325.9 | (190) | |||||
Other comprehensive (income) loss attributable to NCI | 5.4 | (2.8 | ) | (293) | |||||
Total comprehensive income attributable to Progressive | $ | 2,032.3 | $ | 1,499.1 | 36 | ||||
NM = Not Meaningful | |||||||||
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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPUTATION OF NET INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PER SHARE
&
INVESTMENT RESULTS
October 2018
(millions – except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
The following table sets forth the computation of per share results: | ||||||||||||
Current | Year-to-Date | |||||||||||
Month | 2018 | 2017 | ||||||||||
Net income (loss) attributable to Progressive | $ | (31.7 | ) | $ | 2,318.9 | $ | 1,176.0 | |||||
Less: Preferred share dividends | 2.3 | 16.9 | 0 | |||||||||
Net income (loss) available to common shareholders | $ | (34.0 | ) | $ | 2,302.0 | $ | 1,176.0 | |||||
Per common share: | ||||||||||||
Basic | $ | (0.06 | ) | $ | 3.95 | $ | 2.02 | |||||
Diluted1 | $ | (0.06 | ) | $ | 3.92 | $ | 2.01 | |||||
Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Progressive | $ | (80.3 | ) | $ | 2,032.3 | $ | 1,499.1 | |||||
Less: Preferred share dividends | 2.3 | 16.9 | 0 | |||||||||
Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to common shareholders | $ | (82.6 | ) | $ | 2,015.4 | $ | 1,499.1 | |||||
Per common share: | ||||||||||||
Diluted1 | $ | (0.14 | ) | $ | 3.44 | $ | 2.56 | |||||
Average common shares outstanding - Basic | 582.8 | 582.3 | 580.8 | |||||||||
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 | |||||||||
Total average equivalent common shares - Diluted | 586.7 | 586.7 | 585.7 | |||||||||
1 Since we reported both a net loss and a comprehensive loss attributable to common shareholders for October 2018, the calculated diluted earnings per share was antidilutive; therefore, basic earnings per share is disclosed for the month.
The following table sets forth the investment results for the period: | |||||||
Current | Year-to-Date | ||||||
Month | 2018 | 2017 | |||||
Fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return: | |||||||
Fixed-income securities | (0.1)% | 0.5% | 3.0% | ||||
Common stocks | (6.8)% | 2.9% | 17.1 % | ||||
Total portfolio | (0.7)% | 0.8% | 4.6 % | ||||
Pretax annualized investment income book yield | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3 % | ||||
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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
October 2018
($ in millions)
(unaudited)
Current Month | ||||||||||||||||||
Vehicles | ||||||||||||||||||
Commercial | ||||||||||||||||||
Personal Lines Business | Lines | Property | Companywide | |||||||||||||||
Agency | Direct | Total | Business | Business | Total | |||||||||||||
Net Premiums Written | $ | 1,370.6 | $ | 1,336.8 | $ | 2,707.4 | $ | 417.9 | $ | 126.1 | $ | 3,251.4 | ||||||
% Growth in NPW | 15 | % | 19 | % | 17 | % | 20 | % | 31 | % | 18% | |||||||
Net Premiums Earned | $ | 1,302.0 | $ | 1,316.9 | $ | 2,618.9 | $ | 373.1 | $ | 118.4 | $ | 3,110.4 | ||||||
% Growth in NPE | 16 | % | 21 | % | 19 | % | 29 | % | 33% | 20% | ||||||||
GAAP Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
Loss/LAE ratio | 75.4 | 75.2 | 75.4 | 70.7 | 114.01 | 76.2 | ||||||||||||
Expense ratio | 18.3 | 19.8 | 19.0 | 19.6 | 33.31 | 19.7 | ||||||||||||
Combined ratio | 93.7 | 95.0 | 94.4 | 90.3 | 147.31 | 95.9 | ||||||||||||
Actuarial Adjustments2 | ||||||||||||||||||
Reserve Decrease/(Increase) | ||||||||||||||||||
Prior accident years | $ | (7.3 | ) | |||||||||||||||
Current accident year | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Calendar year actuarial adjustment | $ | (3.5 | ) | $ | (2.7 | ) | $ | (6.2 | ) | $ | 0 | $ | 2.8 | $ | (3.4 | ) | ||
Prior Accident Years Development | ||||||||||||||||||
Favorable/(Unfavorable) | ||||||||||||||||||
Actuarial adjustment | $ | (7.3 | ) | |||||||||||||||
All other development | (10.3 | ) | ||||||||||||||||
Total development | $ | (17.6 | ) | |||||||||||||||
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio | 76.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Accident year loss/LAE ratio | 75.6 | |||||||||||||||||
1 The loss/LAE ratio includes 7.1 points due to the reversal of a portion of the reinsurance recoverables on our aggregate stop-loss agreement, which covers all ARX losses, including catastrophes and other weather-related losses, but excluding losses from named storms and from liability claims, as well as a portion of the LAE associated with those losses. The expense ratio includes 5.1 points of amortization expense predominately associated with the acquisition of a controlling interest in ARX. Excluding these items, the Property business would have reported a loss/LAE ratio of 106.9 (which includes 55.8 points of catastrophe losses from Hurricane Michael and other storms), an expense ratio of 28.2, and a combined ratio of 135.1 for October 2018.
2 Represents adjustments solely based on our actuarial reviews. For our Property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
October 2018
($ in millions)
(unaudited)
Year-to-Date | ||||||||||||||||||
Vehicles | ||||||||||||||||||
Commercial | ||||||||||||||||||
Personal Lines Business | Lines | Property | Companywide | |||||||||||||||
Agency | Direct | Total | Business | Business | Total | |||||||||||||
Net Premiums Written | $ | 11,594.8 | $ | 11,632.8 | $ | 23,227.6 | $ | 3,473.7 | $ | 1,218.2 | $ | 27,919.5 | ||||||
% Growth in NPW | 16 | % | 21 | % | 19 | % | 29 | % | 35 | % | 21% | |||||||
Net Premiums Earned | $ | 10,909.7 | $ | 10,882.2 | $ | 21,791.9 | $ | 3,005.6 | $ | 1,051.6 | $ | 25,849.1 | ||||||
% Growth in NPE | 17 | % | 21 | % | 19 | % | 30 | % | 30% | 20% | ||||||||
GAAP Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
Loss/LAE ratio | 69.6 | 70.9 | 70.2 | 68.3 | 73.8 | 70.2 | ||||||||||||
Expense ratio | 19.2 | 20.4 | 19.8 | 20.3 | 34.51 | 20.4 | ||||||||||||
Combined ratio | 88.8 | 91.3 | 90.0 | 88.6 | 108.31 | 90.6 | ||||||||||||
Actuarial Adjustments2 | ||||||||||||||||||
Reserve Decrease/(Increase) | ||||||||||||||||||
Prior accident years | $ | (6.0 | ) | |||||||||||||||
Current accident year | 19.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Calendar year actuarial adjustment | $ | 6.1 | $ | 25.2 | $ | 31.3 | $ | (7.3 | ) | $ | (10.1 | ) | $ | 13.9 | ||||
Prior Accident Years Development | ||||||||||||||||||
Favorable/(Unfavorable) | ||||||||||||||||||
Actuarial adjustment | $ | (6.0 | ) | |||||||||||||||
All other development | (58.6 | ) | ||||||||||||||||
Total development | $ | (64.6 | ) | |||||||||||||||
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio | 70.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Accident year loss/LAE ratio | 70.0 | |||||||||||||||||
1 Included in both the expense ratio and combined ratio is 5.7 points of amortization expense predominately associated with the acquisition of a controlling interest in ARX. Excluding these additional expenses, the Property business would have reported an expense ratio of 28.8 and a combined ratio of 102.6.
2 Represents adjustments solely based on our actuarial reviews. For our Property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION
(millions - except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
October 2018 | |||
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET: | |||
Investments, at fair value: | |||
Available-for-sale securities: | |||
Fixed maturities1 (amortized cost: $27,947.7) | $ | 27,562.0 | |
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $2,133.9) | 2,133.9 | ||
Total available-for-sale securities | 29,695.9 | ||
Equity securities: | |||
Nonredeemable preferred stocks (cost: $826.6) | 898.0 | ||
Common equities (cost: $1,143.3) | 2,849.5 | ||
Total equity securities | 3,747.5 | ||
Total investments2 | 33,443.4 | ||
Net premiums receivable | 6,835.2 | ||
Deferred acquisition costs | 981.4 | ||
Goodwill and intangible assets | 759.3 | ||
Other assets3 | 4,736.7 | ||
Total assets | $ | 46,756.0 | |
Unearned premiums | $ | 11,148.3 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves3 | 15,019.7 | ||
Other liabilities2 | 4,187.6 | ||
Debt4 | 4,404.6 | ||
Total liabilities | 34,760.2 | ||
Redeemable noncontrolling interest (NCI) | 211.7 | ||
Shareholders' equity | 11,784.1 | ||
Total liabilities, NCI, and shareholders' equity | $ | 46,756.0 | |
Common shares outstanding | 583.1 | ||
Common shares repurchased - October | 0 | ||
Average cost per common share | $ | 0 | |
Book value per common share | $ | 19.36 | |
Trailing 12-month return on average common shareholders' equity | |||
Net income attributable to Progressive | 26.6 | % | |
Comprehensive income attributable to Progressive | 24.0 | % | |
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities | $ | (378.8 | ) |
Increase (decrease) from September 2018 | $ | (62.1 | ) |
Increase (decrease) from December 2017 | $ | (370.4 | ) |
Debt-to-total capital ratio4 | 27.2 | % | |
Fixed-income portfolio duration | 2.7 | ||
Weighted average credit quality | AA- | ||
Year-to-date Gainshare factor | 1.90 | ||
1 As of October 31, 2018, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $6.9 million as a realized loss during the period
we held these securities.
2 At October 31, 2018, we had $215.9 million of net unsettled security transactions classified in "other liabilities."
3 Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $2,425.0 million, which are included in "other assets."
4 Includes $544.5 million of net proceeds from the October 2018 issuance of 4.00% Senior Notes due 2029. Ratio reflects debt as a percent of debt plus shareholders' equity; redeemable noncontrolling interest is not part of this calculation.
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Monthly Commentary
• | During October, on a companywide basis, we incurred about $138 million, or 4.4 loss ratio points, of catastrophe losses, compared to about $16 million, or 0.6 points last year. Approximately $72 million of the current month catastrophe losses were from our vehicle businesses and approximately $66 million were from our Property business (55.8 points on our Property business combined ratio). Hurricane Michael contributed about $60 million to our vehicle businesses and $50 million to our Property business catastrophe losses for the month. Based on our estimates through October, including certain loss adjustment expenses, we did not exceed our retention level under our catastrophe reinsurance program in our Property business as a result of Hurricane Michael. Our year-to-date total catastrophe losses were approximately $521 million, or 2.0 points, compared to $793 million, or 3.7 points, last year. |
Events
We plan to release November results on Wednesday, December 12, 2018, before the market opens.
About Progressive
The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies makes it easy to understand, buy and use auto insurance. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach us whenever, wherever and however it's most convenient - online at progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, on a mobile device or in-person with a local agent.
Progressive provides insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes. Home insurance is underwritten by select carriers, including American Strategic Insurance Corp. and subsidiaries (ASI), our majority owned subsidiaries.
Progressive is the third largest auto insurer in the country; a leading seller of motorcycle and commercial auto insurance; and through ASI, one of the top 20 homeowners insurance carriers.
Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price®, Snapshot®, and HomeQuote Explorer®.
The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE:PGR.
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Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this report not based upon historical fact are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements often use words such as “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” and other words and terms of similar meaning, or are tied to future periods, in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events, and are subject to certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions, and projections generally; inflation and changes in general economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the possible failure of one or more governmental, corporate, or other entities to make scheduled debt payments or satisfy other obligations; our ability to access capital markets and financing arrangements when needed to support growth or other capital needs, and the favorable evaluations by credit and other rating agencies on which this access depends; the potential or actual downgrading by one or more rating agencies of our securities or governmental, corporate, or other securities we hold; the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios and other companies with which we have ongoing business relationships, including reinsurers and other counterparties to certain financial transactions or under certain government programs; the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing, loss reserving, and claims methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to attract and retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for the introduction of products to new jurisdictions, for requested rate changes and the timing thereof and for any proposed acquisitions; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments at the state and federal levels, including, but not limited to, matters relating to vehicle and homeowners insurance, health care reform and tax law changes; the outcome of disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation or governmental investigations that may be pending or filed against us; severe weather conditions and other catastrophe events; the effectiveness of our reinsurance programs; changes in vehicle usage and driving patterns, which may be influenced by oil and gas prices, changes in residential occupancy patterns, and the effects of the emerging “sharing economy”; advancements in vehicle or home technology or safety features, such as accident and loss prevention technologies or the development of autonomous or partially autonomous vehicles; our ability to accurately recognize and appropriately respond in a timely manner to changes in loss frequency and severity trends; technological advances; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems), and business functions, and safeguard personal and sensitive information in our possession, whether from cyber attacks, other technology events or other means; our continued access to and functionality of third-party systems that are critical to our business; our continued ability to access cash accounts and/or convert securities into cash on favorable terms when we desire to do so; restrictions on our subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to The Progressive Corporation; possible impairment of our goodwill or intangible assets if future results do not adequately support either, or both, of these items; court decisions, new theories of insurer liability or interpretations of insurance policy provisions and other trends in litigation; changes in health care and auto and property repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.
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