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8-K - 8-K - PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/a8-kdecember2017earningsre.htm
 
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NEWS RELEASE
 
 
 
 
The Progressive Corporation
 
 
Company Contact:
6300 Wilson Mills Road
 
 
Julia Hornack
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143
 
 
(440) 395-2164
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS DECEMBER RESULTS AND ANNUAL DIVIDEND AMOUNT

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO -- January 24, 2018 -- The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) today reported the following results for December 2017 and the fourth quarter of 2017:

 
December
Quarter
(millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited)
2017
 
2016
 
Change
2017
 
2016
 
Change
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net premiums written
$
1,972.3

 
$
1,609.0

 
23
 %
$
6,752.6

 
$
5,551.5

 
22
 %
Net premiums earned
$
2,144.7

 
$
1,825.5

 
17
 %
$
6,845.9

 
$
5,871.4

 
17
 %
Net income attributable to Progressive
$
261.3

 
$
161.9

 
61
 %
$
576.3

 
$
383.2

 
50
 %
Per share
$
0.45

 
$
0.28

 
61
 %
$
0.98

 
$
0.66

 
50
 %
Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(including net impairment losses)
$
(12.6
)
 
$
(21.8
)
 
(42)
 %
$
(9.7
)
 
$
22.1

 
(144)
 %
Combined ratio
90.7

 
88.9

 
1.8 pts.

91.4

 
92.7

 
(1.3) pts.
Average diluted equivalent shares
585.9

 
582.9

 
1
 %
585.7

 
583.0

 
0
 %


(thousands; unaudited)
December
 
December
 
 
 
2017
 
2016
Change
Policies in Force
 
 
 
 
 
Vehicle businesses:
 
 
 
 
 
  Agency – auto
5,670.7
 
5,045.4
 
12 %
  Direct – auto
6,039.1
 
5,348.3
 
13 %
  Total personal auto
11,709.8
 
10,393.7
 
13 %
  Total special lines
4,365.7
 
4,263.1
 
2 %
  Total Personal Lines
16,075.5
 
14,656.8
 
10 %
  Total Commercial Lines
646.8
 
607.9
 
6 %
Property business
1,461.7
 
1,201.9
 
22 %
 
 
 
 
 
 

Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Our Commercial Lines business writes primary liability, physical damage, and other auto-related insurance for autos and trucks owned and/or operated predominantly by small businesses. Our Property business writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters.

See the “Comprehensive Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and
the "Monthly Commentary" at the end of this release for additional discussion.


- 1 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS
December 2017
(millions)
(unaudited)

 
Current Month
 
Comments on Monthly Results1
Net premiums written
$
1,972.3

 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
Net premiums earned
$
2,144.7

 
 
Investment income
53.4

 
 
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings
(2.0
)
 
 
Net realized gains (losses) on securities
(10.6
)
 
 
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities
(12.6
)
 
 
Fees and other revenues
29.4

 
 
Service revenues
11.6

 
 
Other gains (losses)
0

 
 
Total revenues
2,226.5

 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
1,520.0

 
 
Policy acquisition costs
178.4

 
 
Other underwriting expenses
275.9

 
 
Investment expenses
1.8

 
 
Service expenses
10.0

 
 
Interest expense
11.7

 
 
Total expenses
1,997.8

 
 
Income before income taxes
228.7

 
 
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(33.8
)
 
Includes impact of the rate change under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and other tax benefits recognized; see Monthly Commentary for discussion.

Net income
262.5

 
 
Net (income) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest (NCI)
(1.2
)
 
 
Net income attributable to Progressive
261.3

 
 
 
 
 
 
Other comprehensive income (loss)
 
 
 
Changes in:
 
 
 
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities
19.3

 
 
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions
0.1

 
 
Foreign currency translation adjustment
0

 
 
Other comprehensive income (loss)
19.4

 
 
Other comprehensive (income) loss attributable to NCI
(0.5
)
 
 
Total comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Progressive
$
280.2

 
 
 
 
 
 
1 See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion.

For a description of our financial reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2016 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2016 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.

- 2 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS
December 2017
(millions)
(unaudited)

 
Full Year
 
 
 
2017
 
2016
 
% Change
Net premiums written
$
27,132.1

 
$
23,353.5

 
16
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
Net premiums earned
$
25,729.9

 
$
22,474.0

 
14
Investment income
563.1

 
478.9

 
18
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
 
 
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings
(64.5
)
 
(86.8
)
 
(26)
Net realized gains (losses) on securities
114.1

 
137.9

 
(17)
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities
49.6

 
51.1

 
(3)
Fees and other revenues
370.6

 
332.5

 
11
Service revenues
126.8

 
103.3

 
23
Other gains (losses)
(1.0
)
 
1.6

 
(163)
Total revenues
26,839.0

 
23,441.4

 
14
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
18,808.0

 
16,879.6

 
11
Policy acquisition costs
2,124.9

 
1,863.8

 
14
Other underwriting expenses
3,480.7

 
2,972.0

 
17
Investment expenses
23.9

 
22.4

 
7
Service expenses
109.5

 
92.0

 
19
Interest expense
153.1

 
140.9

 
9
Total expenses
24,700.1

 
21,970.7

 
12
 
 
 
 
 
 
Income before income taxes
2,138.9

 
1,470.7

 
45
Provision for income taxes
540.8

 
413.5

 
31
Net income
1,598.1

 
1,057.2

 
51
Net (income) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest (NCI)
(5.9
)
 
(26.2
)
 
(77)
Net income attributable to Progressive
1,592.2

 
1,031.0

 
54
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other comprehensive income (loss)
 
 
 
 
 
Changes in:
 
 
 
 
 
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities
355.4

 
130.6

 
172
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions
(5.4
)
 
(1.2
)
 
350
Foreign currency translation adjustment
1.1

 
0.4

 
175
Other comprehensive income (loss)
351.1

 
129.8

 
170
Other comprehensive (income) loss attributable to NCI
(2.3
)
 
3.2

 
(172)
Total comprehensive income attributable to Progressive
$
1,941.0

 
$
1,164.0

 
67
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 



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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPUTATION OF NET INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PER SHARE
&
INVESTMENT RESULTS
December 2017
(millions – except per share amounts)
(unaudited)




The following table sets forth the computation of per share results:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current
 
 Full Year
 
 
Month
 
2017
 
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income attributable to Progressive
$
261.3

 
$
1,592.2

 
$
1,031.0

 
Per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
$
0.45

 
$
2.74

 
$
1.77

 
Diluted
$
0.45

 
$
2.72

 
$
1.76

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Progressive
$
280.2

 
$
1,941.0

 
$
1,164.0

 
Per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diluted
$
0.48

 
$
3.31

 
$
1.99

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average shares outstanding - Basic
581.3

 
580.8

 
581.7

 
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation
4.6

 
4.9

 
3.3

 
Total average equivalent shares - Diluted
585.9

 
585.7

 
585.0

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


The following table sets forth the investment results for the period:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current
 
Full Year
 
 
 
Month
 
2017
 
2016
 
 
Fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed-income securities
0.2%
 
3.0%
 
2.9%
 
 
Common stocks
1.1%
 
21.8%
 
12.8 %
 
 
     Total portfolio
0.3%
 
5.2%
 
4.0 %
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pretax annualized investment income book yield
2.5%
 
2.4%
 
2.3 %
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 




- 4 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
December 2017
($ in millions)
(unaudited)



Current Month
 
Vehicles
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commercial
 
 
 
Personal Lines Business
Lines
Property
Companywide
 
Agency
Direct
Total
Business
Business
Total1
Net Premiums Written
$
855.5

$
816.1

$
1,671.6

$
204.6

$
96.1

$
1,972.3

% Growth in NPW
18
%
22
%
20
%
47
%
27
%
23%
Net Premiums Earned
$
920.2

$
893.8

$
1,814.0

$
238.8

$
91.9

$
2,144.7

% Growth in NPE
16
%
18
%
17
%
20
%
20%
17%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Ratios
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss/LAE ratio
69.8

74.1

71.9

67.4

58.22

70.9

Expense ratio
19.3

18.5

18.9

21.9

33.02
19.8

Combined ratio
89.1

92.6

90.8

89.3

91.22

90.7

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actuarial Adjustments3
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior accident years
 
 
 
 
 
$
18.5

Current accident year
 
 
 
 
 
(16.0
)
Calendar year actuarial adjustment
$
(1.9
)
$
(1.7
)
$
(3.6
)
$
2.3

$
3.8

$
2.5

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Accident Years Development
 
 
 
 
 
 
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actuarial adjustment
 
 
 
 
 
$
18.5

All other development
 
 
 
 
 
(7.4
)
Total development
 
 
 
 
 
$
11.1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio
 
 
 
 
 
70.9

Accident year loss/LAE ratio
 
 
 
 
 
71.4

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1 Includes results for all of our run-off businesses. For the month, our run-off businesses generated no underwriting profit or loss.

2 The loss/LAE ratio includes 30.7 points due to the reversal of a portion of the reinsurance recoverable on our aggregate stop-loss agreement, which covers all ARX losses and a portion of the LAE associated with those losses, except those from named storms and liability claims. The expense ratio includes 6.5 points of amortization expense predominately associated with the acquisition of a controlling interest in ARX. Excluding these items, the Property business would have reported a loss/LAE ratio of 27.5, an expense ratio of 26.5, and a combined ratio of 54.0 for December 2017.

3 Represents adjustments solely based on our actuarial reviews. For our Property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.




- 5 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
December 2017
($ in millions)
(unaudited)



Full Year
 
Vehicles
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commercial
 
 
 
Personal Lines Business
Lines
Property
Companywide
 
Agency
Direct
Total
Business
Business
Total1
Net Premiums Written
$
11,685.4

$
11,243.0

$
22,928.4

$
3,112.7

$
1,091.0

$
27,132.1

% Growth in NPW
16
%
16
%
16
%
20
%
17
%
16%
Net Premiums Earned
$
11,177.6

$
10,769.6

$
21,947.2

$
2,793.9

$
988.8

$
25,729.9

% Growth in NPE
14
%
15
%
14
%
15
%
14%
14%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Ratios
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss/LAE ratio
73.0

74.1

73.6

70.3

70.8
73.1

Expense ratio
19.5

19.6

19.5

22.0

34.32
20.3

Combined ratio
92.5

93.7

93.1

92.3

105.12

93.4

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actuarial Adjustments3
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior accident years
 
 
 
 
 
$
138.5

Current accident year
 
 
 
 
 
(19.8
)
Calendar year actuarial adjustment
$
32.3

$
55.3

$
87.6

$
(0.7
)
$
31.8

$
118.7

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Accident Years Development
 
 
 
 
 
 
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actuarial adjustment
 
 
 
 
 
$
138.5

All other development
 
 
 
 
 
(164.4
)
Total development
 
 
 
 
 
$
(25.9
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio
 
 
 
 
 
73.1

Accident year loss/LAE ratio
 
 
 
 
 
73.0

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1 Includes results for all of our run-off businesses. For the year, our run-off businesses generated a $0.2 million underwriting loss.
 
2 Included in both the expense ratio and combined ratio is 6.7 points of amortization expense predominately associated with the acquisition of a controlling interest in ARX. Excluding these additional expenses, the Property business would have reported an expense ratio of 27.6 and a combined ratio of 98.4 for the year.

3 Represents adjustments solely based on our actuarial reviews. For our Property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.








- 6 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION
(millions - except per share amounts)
(unaudited)

 
December
 
2017
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:
 
Investments – Available-for-sale, at fair value:
 
Fixed maturities1 (amortized cost: $20,209.9)
$
20,201.7

Equity securities:
 
Nonredeemable preferred stocks1 (cost: $698.6)
803.8

Common equities (cost: $1,499.0)
3,399.8

Short-term investments (amortized cost: $2,869.4)
2,869.4

Total investments2,3
27,274.7

Net premiums receivable
5,422.5

Deferred acquisition costs
780.5

Goodwill and intangible assets
819.3

Other assets2,4
4,404.2

Total assets
$
38,701.2

 
 
Unearned premiums
$
8,903.5

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves4
13,086.9

Other liabilities
2,960.9

Dividend payable5
655.1

Debt
3,306.3

Total liabilities
28,912.7

Redeemable noncontrolling interest (NCI)
503.7

Shareholders' equity
9,284.8

Total liabilities, NCI, and shareholders' equity
$
38,701.2

 
 
 
 
Common shares outstanding
581.7

Shares repurchased - December
0

Average cost per share
$
0

Book value per share
$
15.96

Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders' equity
 
Net income attributable to Progressive
17.8
%
Comprehensive income attributable to Progressive
21.7
%
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on investments
$
1,997.6

Increase (decrease) from November 2017
$
31.0

Increase (decrease) from December 2016
$
548.5

Debt-to-total capital ratio6
26.3
%
Fixed-income portfolio duration
2.5

Weighted average credit quality
AA-

Final 2017 Gainshare factor
1.79


1 As of December 31, 2017, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $0.2 million as a realized gain during the period we held these securities.
2 At December 31, 2017, we had $5.8 million of net unsettled security transactions classified in "other assets"
3 Includes $1.6 billion, net of unsettled security transactions, of investments in a consolidated, non-insurance subsidiary of the holding company.
4 Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $2,170.1 million, which are included in "other assets." During December, we decreased our total recoverables from the National Flood Insurance Program by about $200 million and the recoverables under our aggregate stop-loss program by $28 million.
5 See Monthly Commentary for further discussion. Amount based on estimated shares outstanding as of the record date of February 2, 2018.
6 Ratio reflects debt as a percent of debt plus shareholders' equity; redeemable noncontrolling interest is not part of this calculation.

- 7 -




Monthly Commentary
On December 8, 2017, the Board of Directors declared an annual variable dividend to be paid on February 9, 2018, to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 2, 2018 (ex-dividend date of February 1, 2018). The amount of the annual variable dividend is $1.1247 per common share, or an estimated $655.1 million in the aggregate, and is reflected in our 2017 financial statements. The amount of the dividend was determined based on the Company’s 2017 financial results and the following formula:
 
 
After-Tax
 
33-1/3%
 
 
Dividend
 
Underwriting
X
Target
X
Gainshare
Amount Per
=
Income
 
Percentage
 
Factor
Share
 
Common Shares Outstanding on 12/31/17
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Applying full year 2017 financial results, the annual variable dividend was calculated as follows:
$1.1247/share
=
$1,096.5 million
X
33 1/3%
X
1.79
581.7 million Common Shares
For December, the benefit for income taxes included the following favorable/(unfavorable) items:
$99.5 million - revaluation of our net deferred tax liability to the new corporate tax rate of 21% under the legislation commonly known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (the "Tax Act"); this amount includes a benefit of $275.7 million related to items originally recorded through other comprehensive income, partially offset by an increase to the provision associated with our other net deferred tax assets, as well as the impact of the rate change to the section 162(m) and ESOP items discussed below;
($9.0) million - additional provision (before revaluation) due to changes under the Tax Act to section 162(m), which governs the deductibility of executive compensation;
$9.7 million - benefit (before revaluation) related to dividends to be paid to our ESOP, which were declared in December; and
$4.0 million - ratable portion related to the benefits from federal renewable energy tax credit fund investments.
Events
We plan to release January results on Wednesday, February 14, 2018, before the market opens.

About Progressive
The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies makes it easy to understand, buy and use auto insurance. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach us whenever, wherever and however it's most convenient - online at progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, on a mobile device or in-person with a local agent.

Progressive provides insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes. Home insurance is underwritten by select carriers, including American Strategic Insurance Corp. and subsidiaries (ASI), our majority owned subsidiaries.
 
Progressive is the fourth largest auto insurer in the country; a leading seller of motorcycle and commercial auto insurance; and through ASI, one of the top 20 homeowners insurance carriers. 

Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price®, Snapshot®, and HomeQuote Explorer®.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE:PGR.

- 8 -




Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this report not based upon historical fact are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements often use words such as “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” and other words and terms of similar meaning, or are tied to future periods, in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events, and are subject to certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions, and projections generally; inflation and changes in general economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the possible failure of one or more governmental, corporate, or other entities to make scheduled debt payments or satisfy other obligations; the potential or actual downgrading by one or more rating agencies of our securities or governmental, corporate, or other securities we hold; the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios and other companies with which we have ongoing business relationships, including reinsurers and other counterparties to certain financial transactions; the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing, loss reserving, and claims methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to attract and retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for the introduction of products to new jurisdictions, for requested rate changes and the timing thereof and for any proposed acquisitions; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments at the state and federal levels, including, but not limited to, matters relating to vehicle and homeowners insurance, health care reform and tax law changes; the outcome of disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation or governmental investigations that may be pending or filed against us; severe weather conditions and other catastrophe events; the effectiveness of our reinsurance programs; changes in vehicle usage and driving patterns, which may be influenced by oil and gas prices; changes in residential occupancy patterns and the effects of the emerging "sharing economy"; advancements in vehicle or home technology or safety features, such as accident and loss prevention technologies or the development of autonomous or partially autonomous vehicles; our ability to accurately recognize and appropriately respond in a timely manner to changes in loss frequency and severity trends; technological advances; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems), and business functions, and safeguard personal and sensitive information in our possession; our continued access to and functionality of third-party systems that are critical to our business; restrictions on our subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to The Progressive Corporation; possible impairment of our goodwill or intangible assets if future results do not adequately support either, or both, of these items; court decisions, new theories of insurer liability or interpretations of insurance policy provisions and other trends in litigation; changes in health care and auto and property repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.







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