Attached files
| file | filename |
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| EX-99.1 - PRESS RELEASE - EXPRESS, INC. | pressreleaseicr2018.htm |
| 8-K - 8-K - EXPRESS, INC. | a8-kcoverforicr2018.htm |
January 2018
Cautionary Statement Regarding
Forward-Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements:
Certain statements are “forward-looking statements” made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include any statement that does not directly relate to any historical or current fact and
include, but are not limited to: (1) guidance and expectations for the fourth quarter and full year 2017, including statements regarding
expected comparable sales, net sales, adjusted operating margin, interest expense, effective tax rates, net income, adjusted net income,
earnings per diluted share, adjusted earnings per diluted share, capital expenditures, cash, operating cash flow, debt levels, and free cash
flow; (2) statements regarding expected store openings, store closures, and store conversions; (3) expectations regarding e-commerce
sales; (4) plans for future investments; (5) expectations regarding the retail sector; and (6) statements regarding the Company's strategic
objectives, plans, and initiatives, including, but not limited to, results expected from such strategic objectives, plans, and initiatives.
Forward looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, which may not prove to be accurate. These
statements are not guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict, and
significant contingencies, many of which are beyond the Company's control. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially
and adversely from these forward-looking statements. Among these factors are (1) changes in consumer spending and general economic
conditions; (2) our ability to identify and respond to new and changing fashion trends, customer preferences, and other related factors; (3)
fluctuations in our sales, results of operations, and cash levels on a seasonal basis and due to a variety of other factors, including our
product offerings relative to customer demand, the mix of merchandise we sell, promotions, and inventory levels; (4) competition from
other retailers; (5) customer traffic at malls, shopping centers, and at our stores and online; (6) our dependence on a strong brand image;
(7) our ability to develop and maintain a relevant and reliable omni-channel experience for our customers; (8) the failure or breach of
information systems upon which we rely; (9) our ability to protect customer data from fraud and theft; (10) our dependence upon third
parties to manufacture all of our merchandise; (11) changes in the cost of raw materials, labor, and freight; (12) supply chain or other
business disruption; (13) our dependence upon key executive management; (14) our ability to achieve our strategic objectives, including
improving profitability through a balanced approach to growth, increasing brand awareness and elevating our customer experience,
transforming and leveraging information technology systems, and investing in the growth and development of our people; (15) our
substantial lease obligations; (16) our reliance on third parties to provide us with certain key services for our business; (17) claims made
against us resulting in litigation or changes in laws and regulations applicable to our business; (18) our inability to protect our trademarks
or other intellectual property rights which may preclude the use of our trademarks or other intellectual property around the world; (19)
restrictions imposed on us under the terms of our asset-based loan facility, including restrictions on the ability to effect share repurchases;
(20) impairment charges on long-lived assets; and (21) changes in tax requirements, results of tax audits, and other factors that may
cause fluctuations in our effective tax rate. Additional information concerning these and other factors can be found in Express, Inc.'s filings
with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement as
a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law.
2
♦ One of the largest specialty retail apparel brands
with ~$2.1 billion in annual sales
♦ Strong and enduring dual-gender brand appealing to
20-30 year olds
♦ Address fashion needs across multiple wearing
occasions
♦ Strong, tenured leadership team
3
Express Is A Large Fashion Apparel Brand
Men’s
37%
63%
Women’s
Work
Casual
Jeanswear
Going out
Sales Profile1,2 Wearing Occasions
1. For the fiscal year ended January 28, 2017. 2. Excludes “other revenue” of $41 million.
4
Express Is A Large And Relevant Brand
Select U.S. Retail
Apparel Brands1
$ in millions
1. Based on fiscal 2016 sales data available in public filings.
5
Transforming Business Model
$2.1B
LTM Net
Sales1
STORES
640 company-
operated stores in the
U.S. and Puerto Rico
Full price and outlet
stores
Vital to the overall
customer and brand
experience
Effective marketing
and customer
acquisition vehicle
Foundation to omni-
channel strategy
E-COMMERCE
Express.com and the
Express mobile app
Extends brand reach
More choices with
expanded sizing and
assortments (Petites,
Men’s Tall)
More targeted customer
outreach and
segmentation using
analytics
Growing as a percentage
of total net sales
1. For the last twelve months ended October 28, 2017. 2. Excludes “other revenue” of $41 million.
6
Express Is An E-Commerce Destination
E-Commerce
Penetration1
1. Based on e-commerce and total sales data available in public filings and company statements for the most recent period.
7
Retail Industry Transformation
♦ Retail industry will continue to transform
♦ Future demand will be more balanced across
channels
♦ Expect e-commerce sales will further increase
as a percentage of our total sales in the future
♦ Strategic initiatives are aligned to support this
ongoing transformation of the brand
♦ Will continue to invest in:
Growing our brand
Growing our e-commerce business
Expanding our omni-channel capabilities
Optimizing our store footprint
8
Fourth Quarter And 2017 Business Update
♦ Positive start to Q4 in November and early December,
however the key weeks leading up to Christmas were
disappointing
♦ December performance was most challenging in our retail
stores, where traffic was worse than expected
♦ E-commerce sales quarter to date continue to trend
positively, up double-digits versus last year
♦ Dresses and sweaters were primary drivers of the sales
miss relative to our expectations
♦ On a positive note, January to date sales have stabilized,
improving relative to the December trend
♦ Based on our holiday performance, we lowered our fourth
quarter and full year 2017 outlook for comps and EPS
♦ Made changes to the merchant leadership organization and
commenced a search for a new chief merchandising officer
♦ Improve profitability through a balanced approach
to growth
♦ Increase brand awareness and elevate our
customer experience
♦ Transform and leverage information technology
systems
♦ Invest in the growth and development of our
people
9
Our Four Key Strategic Objectives
10
♦ Improved Clarity and Fashion Message
♦ New Brand Architecture
♦ E-Commerce Growth
♦ NEXT Loyalty Program
♦ Omni-Channel Capabilities
♦ Store Footprint Optimization and Outlet Strategy
♦ Cost Savings Initiatives
Key Initiatives To Drive Improved Performance
Karlie Kloss
EXPRESS Brand
Ambassador
♦ Reduced choices and
increased depth per choice
♦ Focused on telling more
defined fashion stories
♦ Greater emphasis on building
key items
♦ Improved signage and
navigation in stores
11
Improved Clarity And Fashion Message
♦ New brand architecture focusing on our fashion authority and
the individual style, creativity, and ambition of our customers
♦ Digital, video, and social engagement momentum
♦ Content creation, ambassadors, and fashion influencers
♦ New experiences across key markets – pop-ups and in-mall
and partner activations
♦ NBA league-wide marketing partnership
12
New Brand Architecture
E-Commerce Sales1
♦ Strong LTM e-commerce sales growth of 19% driven by increased traffic and conversion
♦ Expect e-commerce penetration of total sales to continue increasing in the future
$ in millions
13
Strong E-Commerce Growth
2
E-Commerce Penetration
3 3
1. Excludes “other revenue” for each of the years presented.
2. FY12 and FY17 represent 53-week years.
3. For the last twelve months ended October 28, 2017.
2
14
Strong E-Commerce Growth
15
Successful Relaunch of NEXT Loyalty Program
♦ Highly successful relaunch of NEXT loyalty program
♦ Improved sign-up process and enhanced member value
proposition
♦ Social engagement incorporated into program
♦ Achieved enrollment goal ahead of plan
♦ Historically NEXT members shop more frequently, spend
more, and stay longer than non-loyalty customers
16
Expanded Omni-Channel Capabilities
♦ Omni-channel strategy hinges on having the right
store locations and brand exposure
♦ Successful launch of “ship from store” in Q3 2017 and
will expand to the majority of retail stores in 2018
♦ Launched pilot of “buy online, pick up in store” in Q3
2017 and will look to expand capability in 2018
• Incremental sales
• Inventory productivity
• Reduced markdowns
Ship From Store
• Customer benefit
• Drives store traffic
• Additional opportunity to engage
Buy Online, Pick
Up In Store
17
♦ Focused on improving stores’ productivity and
profitability
♦ Constructed a flexible real estate portfolio and seeking
improved lease economics and greater flexibility in terms
♦ Closing stores where future economics no longer make
sense
♦ Converting select lower volume mall stores to outlet
format
Store Footprint Optimization
Store Portfolio
1
1. Projection for the period ending February 3, 2018.
Retail Stores
18
Optimize Retail Footprint
1 February 3, 2018 projection.
♦ Significantly reduced the number of Express
retail store locations in the past four years
♦ Exited Canada in 2017, closing all 17 stores
♦ Converting 24 retail stores to outlets in 2017
1
% of Total
Stores
1. Projection for the period ending February 3, 2018.
♦ Successfully expanded outlet business since 2014 launch
♦ Solid return on investment characteristics
♦ Merchandise focused on the prior year’s best sellers in Express
retail stores
♦ Retail-to-outlet conversions have proven effective in driving
productivity and profitability improvement
19
Expand Outlet Store Base
% of Total Stores
1
Outlet Stores
1. Projection for the period ending February 3, 2018.
20
Significant Cost Savings Initiatives
Savings By Category Expected Savings Timeline
$ in millions
♦ On track to deliver $44 to $54 million in cost savings opportunities over 2016-2019 period
Merchandise margin savings through expansion of factory sourcing base
Buying & occupancy cost savings through sustainability efforts within stores
SG&A expense savings through enhanced focus on overall productivity
♦ Also manage to a zero-based budgeting approach
Financial Overview
Net Sales and
Comparable Sales % Change
22
Financial Performance
Sales in $ millions, unless otherwise noted
♦ Sales in 2016 and 2017 have been pressured by declining mall traffic and a promotional
retail environment
1 1,2
1. FY12 and FY17 represent 53-week years.
2. Based on our 2017 guidance as of January 9, 2018. See page 24.
Diluted EPSOperating Margin
23
Financial Performance
♦ Operating margin and earnings have been negatively impacted by net sales declines
441,2,3 2,5
1. Adjusted Operating Margin. Adjusted Operating Margin is calculated based on Adjusted Operating Income which excludes the impact of non-core items and also excludes the impact of any
changes in tax legislation. Adjusted Operating Income is a non-GAAP financial measure. Refer to pages 30-34 for information about non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of
GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures.
2. FY17 represents a 53-week year.
3. Based on the mid-point of our 2017 guidance as of January 9, 2018. See page 24.
4. Adjusted Diluted EPS. Adjusted Diluted EPS is calculated based on Adjusted Net Income which excludes the impact of non-core items. Adjusted Diluted EPS is a non-GAAP financial
measure. Refer to pages 30-34 for information about non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures.
5. Based on our 2017 guidance as of January 9, 2018. Adjusted Diluted EPS is calculated based on Adjusted Net Income which excludes the impact of non-core items and also excludes the
impact of any changes in tax legislation. Adjusted Diluted EPS is a non-GAAP financial measure. Refer to pages 30-34 for information about non-GAAP financial measures and
reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures. See page 24.
24
2017 Financial Guidance
Guidance as of January 9, 20181
Q4 2017 FY 2017
Comparable Sales Negative 1% to 2% Negative 4%
Interest Expense, Net $0.2 million $2.3 million
Effective Tax Rate Approximately 39% Approximately 40%
Adjusted Tax Rate Approximately 46%(2)
Net Income $24.5 to $26.0 million $14.3 to $15.8 million (3)
Adjusted Net Income $26.0 to $27.5 million (4)
Diluted EPS $0.31 to $0.33 $0.18 to $0.20 (3)
Adjusted Diluted EPS $0.33 to $0.35 (4)
79.2 million 78.9 million
Capital Expenditures ~$60 million
Weighted Average Diluted Shares
♦ Based on our holiday results, we updated our EPS guidance for Q4 and full year 2017
1. This guidance does not take into account any additional non-core items that may occur and also excludes the impact of any changes in tax legislation.
2. Adjusted tax rate excludes the impact of the $12.5 million tax benefit related to the exit of Canada.
3. Includes $24.2 million of expense, or $11.7 million net of tax and $0.15 per share, related to the exit of Canada.
4. Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Diluted EPS are non-GAAP financial measures. Refer to pages 30-34 for information about non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of
GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures.
Operating Cash FlowCash and Debt
25
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
$ in millions$ in millions
♦ Sound balance sheet with $198 million in cash at the end of Q3 2017
♦ We expect approximately $240 million in cash and no debt at the end of 2017 1
♦ Fiscal 2017 operating cash flow estimated to be approximately $110 million 1
1,2 1,2
1. Based on the mid-point of our 2017 guidance as of January 9, 2018. See page 24.
2. FY17 represents a 53-week year.
Free Cash Flow1Capital Expenditures
26
Capital Spend and Free Cash Flow
$ in millions
$ in millions
Elevated due
to significant IT
investments
♦ Priorities of cash use include:
Reinvesting back into the business (e.g. new outlet stores, retail remodels, and
technology)
$145 million remaining under current share repurchase program
♦ Fiscal 2017 free cash flow estimated to be approximately $50 million 1
2 2,3
1. Free cash flow is a non-GAAP financial measure. Free cash flow represents cash flow from operations less capital expenditures. Refer to pages 30-34 for information about non-GAAP
financial measures and reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures.
2. FY17 represents a 53-week year.
3. Based on the mid-point of our 2017 guidance as of January 9, 2018. See page 24.
Summary
♦ Strong and Enduring Brand, Uniquely Positioned Within Industry
Established lifestyle brand with over 35 years of heritage
Attractive customer demographic profile – targeting both women and men between 20 and 30 years old
Products that serve the lifestyle needs of our core demographic
♦ Key Strategic Objectives
Improve profitability through a balanced approach to growth
Increase brand awareness and elevate our customer experience
Transform and leverage information technology systems
Invest in the growth and development of our people
♦ Solid Financial Characteristics
Net sales of $2.1 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $144 million for the 52-weeks ended October 28, 2017 1
Sound balance sheet with $198 million in cash and no debt 2
History of strong operating and free cash flow generation
$145 million remaining under existing share repurchase program
28
Investment Thesis
1. EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Adjusted EBITDA is calculated based on adjusted
earnings, which excludes the impact of non-core items, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Refer to pages 30-34 for information about non-GAAP
financial measures and reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures.
2. As of the quarterly period ended October 28, 2017.
Appendix
Cautionary Statement Regarding
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This presentation contains references to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA), Adjusted
EBITDA, Adjusted Operating Margin, Adjusted Operating Income, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Diluted EPS (EPS), and
Free Cash Flow which are non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should be considered supplemental to and not a
substitute for financial information prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) included in
Express, Inc.’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and may differ from similarly titled measures used by
others. Please refer to slides 31-34 in this presentation for additional information and reconciliations of these measures to the
most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. Management believes that Adjusted
EBITDA, Adjusted Operating Margin, Adjusted Operating Income, Adjusted Net Income, and Adjusted Diluted EPS provide
useful information because they exclude items that may not be indicative of or are unrelated to our underlying business
results, and provide a better baseline for analyzing trends in our underlying business. In addition, Adjusted Diluted EPS is
used as a performance measure in our executive compensation program for purposes of determining the number of equity
awards that are ultimately earned and Adjusted Operating Income is used as a performance measure in our cash incentive
compensation program. Management believes that Free Cash Flow provides useful information regarding liquidity as it shows
our operating cash flow generation less cash reinvested back into the business (capital expenditures).
30
31
LTM Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
* Does not foot due to rounding.
52-weeks
($ in millions) Ended
October 28,
2017
GAAP Net Income $13
Impact of Canadian Exit $24
Income Tax Benefit-Canadian Exit ($12)
Adjusted Net Income* $24
Depreciation and amortization $95
Interest expense $3
Provision for income taxes $22
Adjusted EBITDA $144
32
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
1. Based on the mid-point of our 2017 guidance as of January 9, 2018 and estimated 2017 net sales of approximately $2.1 billion. See pages 22 and 24.
Projected FY 2017 Adjusted Operating Income, Adjusted Net
Income and Adjusted Diluted EPS1
This guidance does not take into account any additional non-core items that may occur and the impact of any changes in tax
legislation. See page 24.
Fifty-Three Weeks Ended February 3, 2018
(in thousan s, except per share
am nts)
Projected
Operating
Income
Projected
Net Income
Projected
Diluted
Earnings per
Share
Projected
Weighted
Average
Diluted
Shares
Outstanding
Projected GAAP Measure $ 27,400 $ 15,050 $ 0.19 78,942
Projected Impact of Canadian Exit 24,200 24,200 0.31
Projected Income Tax Benefit -
Canadian Exit
(12,500 ) (0.16 )
Projected Adjusted Non-GAAP
Measure $ 51,600
$ 26,750
$ 0.34
33
2015 and 2016 Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Diluted EPS
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
34
2014 – 2017 Free Cash Flow
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
1
1. Based on the mid-point of our 2017 guidance as of January 9, 2018. See page 24.
52-weeks 52-weeks 52-weeks 53-weeks
($ in millions) Ended Ended Ended Ended
January 31, January 30, January 28, February 3,
2015 2016 2017 2018
Cash flow from operations $157 $230 $187 ~$110
Less:
Capital expenditures $115 $115 $99 ~$60
Free Cash Flow $41 $114 $88 ~$50
