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Exhibit 99.2

 

LOGO

Investor Relations Update

January 27, 2017

General Overview

 

    TRASM and Pre-tax MarginThe Company expects its first quarter total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) to be up approximately 2.5 to 4.5 percent. In addition, the Company expects its first quarter pre-tax margin excluding special items to be approximately 3 to 5 percent.1

 

    CASM—Consolidated CASM excluding fuel and special items1 is expected to be up approximately 4 percent in 2017, which is consistent with previous guidance. First quarter consolidated CASM excluding fuel and special items1 is expected to be up approximately 9 percent year-over-year. Unit cost increases are greatest in the first quarter as capacity is down by 2% and the salary increases given to our Maintenance and Fleet Service team members are not lapped until the middle of the third quarter.

 

    Capacity2017 total system capacity is expected to be up approximately 1 percent vs. 2016. Full year domestic capacity is expected to be approximately flat year-over-year, while international capacity is expected to be up approximately 4 percent vs. 2016.

 

    Liquidity—As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately $8.8 billion in total available liquidity, comprised of unrestricted cash and investments of $6.4 billion and $2.4 billion in undrawn revolver capacity. The Company also had a restricted cash position of $638 million.

 

    Fuel—Based on the January 24, 2017 forward curve, the Company expects to pay an average of between $1.66 and $1.71 per gallon of mainline jet fuel (including taxes) in the first quarter. Forecasted volume and fuel prices are provided in the following pages.

 

    Cargo / Other RevenueIncludes cargo revenue, loyalty program revenue, ticket change fees, excess/overweight baggage fees, first and second bag fees, contract services, airport clubs and inflight service revenues.

 

    Taxes—As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately $10.5 billion of federal net operating losses (NOLs) and $3.7 billion of state NOLs, substantially all of which are expected to be available in 2017 to reduce future federal and state taxable income. The Company expects to recognize a provision for income taxes in 2017 at an effective rate of approximately 38 percent, which will be substantially non-cash.

Notes:

 

1. The Company is unable to reconcile certain forward-looking projections to GAAP as the nature or amount of special items cannot be determined at this time.

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


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Mainline Update

January 27, 2017

Mainline Comments

 

    All operating expenses are for mainline operated flights only. Please refer to the following page for information pertaining to regional data.

 

    The year-over-year increase in mainline CASM excluding fuel and special items for the first quarter is primarily driven by investments in new labor agreements, investments in the operation, the purchase of new aircraft and a 2.4 percent year-over-year reduction in mainline ASMs.

 

     1Q17E     2Q17E     3Q17E     4Q17E     FY17E2  

Mainline Guidance1

          

Available Seat Miles (ASMs) (bil)

     ~56.2        ~63.7        ~65.5        ~59.3        ~244.7   

CASM ex fuel and special items (YOY % change)3

     +10% to +12     +5% to +7     +1% to +3     +0% to +2     +4% to +6

Cargo Revenues ($ mil)

     ~170        ~180        ~175        ~195        ~720   

Other Revenues ($ mil)

     ~1,335        ~1,330        ~1,325        ~1,330        ~5,320   

Average Fuel Price (incl. taxes) ($/gal) (as of 1/24/2017)

     1.66 to 1.71        1.71 to 1.76        1.74 to 1.79        1.75 to 1.80        1.72 to 1.77   

Fuel Gallons Consumed (mil)

     ~834        ~931        ~956        ~862        ~3,583   

Interest Income ($ mil)

     ~(14     ~(14     ~(16     ~(17     ~(61

Interest Expense ($ mil)

     ~259        ~266        ~274        ~281        ~1,080   

Other Non-Operating (Income)/Expense ($ mil)4,5

     ~(0     ~(0     ~(0     ~(0     ~(1

CAPEX Guidance ($ mil) Inflow/(Outflow)

          

Non-Aircraft CAPEX

     ~(388     ~(366     ~(398     ~(348     ~(1,500

Gross Aircraft CAPEX & net PDPs

     ~(1,256     ~(1,041     ~(970     ~(800     ~(4,067

Assumed Aircraft Financing

     ~959        ~816        ~771        ~595        ~3,140   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net Aircraft CAPEX & PDPs2

     ~(297     ~(225     ~(200     ~(206     ~(927

Notes:

 

1. Includes guidance on certain non-GAAP measures. The Company is unable to reconcile certain forward-looking projections to GAAP as the nature or amount of special items cannot be determined at this time.
2. Numbers may not recalculate due to rounding.
3. CASM ex fuel and special items is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document.
4. Excludes special items; please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document.
5. Other Non-Operating (Income)/Expense primarily includes gains and losses from foreign currency.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


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Regional Update

January 27, 2017

Regional Comments

 

    The Company receives feed from 10 regional airlines, including wholly owned subsidiaries Envoy, PSA Airlines and Piedmont Airlines.

 

     1Q17E     2Q17E     3Q17E     4Q17E     FY17E2  

Regional Guidance1

          

Available Seat Miles (ASMs) (bil)

     ~7.63        ~7.95        ~8.07        ~7.91        ~31.56   

CASM ex fuel and special items (YOY % change)3

     -1% to 1     1% to 3     2% to 4     -1% to 1     0% to 2

Average Fuel Price (incl. taxes) ($/gal) (as of 1/24/2017)

     1.74 to 1.79        1.80 to 1.85        1.83 to 1.88        1.84 to 1.89        1.80 to 1.85   

Fuel Gallons Consumed (mil)

     ~180        ~187        ~193        ~189        ~749   

 

    Regional Airlines     
  Envoy4    Mesa Airlines, Inc.   
  SkyWest Airlines, Inc.5    Piedmont Airlines, Inc.4   
  ExpressJet Airlines, Inc.5    PSA Airlines, Inc.4   
  Republic Airline Inc.    Trans States Airlines, Inc.   
  Air Wisconsin Airlines Corporation    Compass Airlines, LLC   

Notes:

 

1. Includes guidance on certain non-GAAP measures. The Company is unable to reconcile certain forward-looking projections to GAAP as the nature or amount of special items cannot be determined at this time.
2. Numbers may not recalculate due to rounding.
3. CASM ex fuel and special items is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document.
4. Wholly owned subsidiary of American Airlines Group Inc.
5. Pro-rate agreement and capacity purchase agreement.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

Fleet Update

January 27, 2017

Fleet Comments

 

    In 2017, the Company expects to take delivery of 57 mainline aircraft comprised of 20 A321 aircraft, 20 B738 aircraft, 4 B738 Max aircraft, 3 B788 aircraft, and 10 B789 aircraft. The Company also expects to retire 56 mainline aircraft, including 5 A320 aircraft, 17 B757 aircraft, 9 B763 aircraft and 25 MD80 aircraft.

 

    In 2017, the Company expects to add 31 regional aircraft to the fleet comprised of 19 CRJ700 aircraft and 12 E175 aircraft. The Company also expects to reduce the fleet by 23 CRJ200 aircraft and 19 Dash 8-100 aircraft, and temporarily store 13 ERJ140 aircraft.

 

            Active Mainline Ending Fleet Count  
     2016A      1Q17E      2Q17E      3Q17E      4Q17E  

A319

     125         125         125         125         125   

A320

     51         50         48         47         46   

A321

     199         207         214         219         219   

A332

     15         15         15         15         15   

A333

     9         9         9         9         9   

B738

     284         289         294         299         304   

B738 Max

     —           —           —           1         4   

B757

     51         51         51         39         34   

B763

     31         31         30         26         22   

B772

     47         47         47         47         47   

B773

     20         20         20         20         20   

B788

     17         19         20         20         20   

B789

     4         6         8         11         14   

E190

     20         20         20         20         20   

MD80

     57         52         52         32         32   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 
     930         941         953         930         931   
            Active Regional Ending Fleet Count 1  
     2016A      1Q17E      2Q17E      3Q17E      4Q17E  

CRJ200

     120         100         98         97         97   

CRJ700

     79         88         95         98         98   

CRJ900

     118         118         118         118         118   

DASH 8-100

     23         15         12         8         4   

DASH 8-300

     11         11         11         11         11   

E175

     124         127         133         136         136   

ERJ140

     13         —           —           —           —     

ERJ145

     118         118         118         118         118   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 
     606         577         585         586         582   

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

 

1. At the end of the fourth quarter 2016, the Company had 46 ERJ140 regional aircraft in temporary storage not included in the active regional ending fleet count.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

Shares Outstanding

January 27, 2017

Shares Outstanding Comments

 

    The estimated weighted average shares outstanding for 2017 are listed below.

 

    On January 25, 2017, the Company’s Board authorized a new $2.0 billion share repurchase program to expire by the end of 2018. This brings the total amount authorized for share repurchase programs to $11.0 billion since the merger. All prior repurchase programs had been fully expended as of December 31, 2016.

 

    In the fourth quarter of 2016, the Company repurchased 12.2 million shares at a cost of $554 million. Including share repurchases, shares withheld to cover taxes associated with employee equity awards and share distributions, and the cash extinguishment of convertible debt, the Company’s share count has dropped 33 percent from 756.1 million at merger close to 507.3 million shares on December 31, 2016.

2017 Shares Outstanding (shares mil)1

 

     Shares  

For Q1

   Basic      Diluted  

Earnings

     507         512   

Net loss

     507         507   
     Shares  

For Q2-Q4 Average

   Basic      Diluted  

Earnings

     509         512   

Net loss

     509         509   
     Shares  

For FY 2017 Average

   Basic      Diluted  

Earnings

     509         512   

Net loss

     509         509   

Notes:

 

1. Shares outstanding are based upon several estimates and assumptions, including average per share stock price and stock award activity and do not take into consideration any share repurchase activity after the end of the fourth quarter 2016. The number of shares in actual calculations of earnings per share will likely be different from those set forth above.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation

January 27, 2017

The Company is providing disclosure of the reconciliation of reported non-GAAP financial measures to their comparable financial measures on a GAAP basis. The Company believes that the non-GAAP financial measures provide investors the ability to measure financial performance excluding special items, which is more indicative of the Company’s ongoing performance and is more comparable to measures reported by other major airlines. The Company believes that the presentation of mainline CASM excluding fuel and special items and regional CASM excluding fuel and special items is useful to investors because both the cost and availability of fuel are subject to many economic and political factors beyond the Company’s control.

 

 

     American Airlines Group Inc GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation  
     ($ mil except ASM and CASM data)  
     1Q17 Range      2Q17 Range      3Q17 Range      4Q17 Range      FY17 Range  
     Low      High      Low      High      Low      High      Low      High      Low     High  

Mainline1

                            

Mainline operating expenses

   $ 7,332       $ 7,481       $ 7,692       $ 7,855       $ 7,829       $ 7,999       $ 7,527       $ 7,691       $ 30,427      $ 31,073   

Less mainline fuel expense

     1,384         1,426         1,592         1,639         1,663         1,711         1,509         1,552         6,148        6,328   

Less special items

     —           —           —           —           —           —           —           —           —          —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Mainline operating expense excluding fuel and special items

     5,947         6,055         6,100         6,216         6,166         6,288         6,019         6,139         24,278        24,745   

Mainline CASM (cts)

     13.05         13.31         12.08         12.33         11.95         12.21         12.69         12.97         12.43        12.70   

Mainline CASM excluding fuel and special items (Non-GAAP) (cts)

     10.58         10.77         9.58         9.76         9.41         9.60         10.15         10.35         9.92        10.11   

Mainline ASMs (bil)

     56.2         56.2         63.7         63.7         65.5         65.5         59.3         59.3         244.7        244.7   

Regional1

                            

Regional operating expenses

   $ 1,530       $ 1,564       $ 1,564       $ 1,598       $ 1,594       $ 1,628       $ 1,577       $ 1,611       $ 6,252      $ 6,387   

Less regional fuel expense

     313         322         337         346         353         363         348         357         1,351        1,388   

Less special items

     —           —           —           —           —           —           —           —           —          —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Regional operating expenses excluding fuel and special items

     1,217         1,241         1,228         1,252         1,241         1,266         1,229         1,254         4,901        4,999   

Regional CASM (cts)

     20.05         20.49         19.68         20.10         19.76         20.18         19.94         20.37         19.81        20.24   

Regional CASM excluding fuel and special items (Non-GAAP) (cts)

     15.95         16.27         15.44         15.75         15.38         15.68         15.54         15.86         15.53        15.84   

Regional ASMs (bil)

     7.63         7.63         7.95         7.95         8.07         8.07         7.91         7.91         31.56        31.56   

Other non-operating (income)/expense1

                            

Other non-operating (income)/expense

   $ —         $ —         $ —         $ —         $ —         $ —         $ —         $ —         $ (1   $ (1

Less special items

     —           —           —           —           —           —           —           —           —          —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Other non-operating (income)/expense excluding special items

     —           —           —           —           —           —           —           —           (1     (1

 

Notes: Amounts may not recalculate due to rounding.

 

(1) Certain of the guidance provided excludes special items. The Company is unable to fully reconcile such forward-looking guidance to the corresponding GAAP measure because the full nature and amount of the special items cannot be determined at this time. Special items for this period may include items relating to fleet restructuring expenses and merger integration expenses relating to information technology, re-branding of aircraft and airport facilities, alignment of labor union contracts, professional fees and training.

 

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


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Forward Looking Statements

January 27, 2017

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This document includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “plan,” “project,” “could,” “should,” “would,” “continue,” “seek,” “target,” “guidance,” “outlook,” “if current trends continue,” “optimistic,” “forecast” and other similar words. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results, the Company’s plans, objectives, estimates, expectations and intentions, and other statements that are not historical facts such as, without limitation, statements that discuss the possible future effects of known trends or uncertainties, or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assumed. These forward-looking statements are based on the Company’s current objectives, beliefs and expectations, and they are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and financial position and timing of certain events to differ materially from the information in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to the following: significant operating losses in the future; downturns in economic conditions that adversely affect the Company’s business; the impact of continued periods of high volatility in fuel costs, increased fuel prices and significant disruptions in the supply of aircraft fuel; competitive practices in the industry, including the impact of low cost carriers, airline alliances and industry consolidation; the challenges and costs of integrating operations and realizing anticipated synergies and other benefits of the merger transaction with US Airways Group, Inc.; costs of ongoing data security compliance requirements and the impact of any significant data security breach; the Company’s substantial indebtedness and other obligations and the effect they could have on the Company’s business and liquidity; an inability to obtain sufficient financing or other capital to operate successfully and in accordance with the Company’s current business plan; increased costs of financing, a reduction in the availability of financing and fluctuations in interest rates; the effect the Company’s high level of fixed obligations may have on its ability to fund general corporate requirements, obtain additional financing and respond to competitive developments and adverse economic and industry conditions; the Company’s significant pension and other postretirement benefit funding obligations; the impact of any failure to comply with the covenants contained in financing arrangements; provisions in credit card processing and other commercial agreements that may materially reduce the Company’s liquidity; the impact of union disputes, employee strikes and other labor-related disruptions; any inability to maintain labor costs at competitive levels; interruptions or disruptions in service at one or more of the Company’s hub airports; any inability to obtain and maintain adequate facilities, infrastructure and slots to operate the Company’s flight schedule and expand or change its route network; the Company’s reliance on third-party regional operators or third-party service providers that have the ability to affect the Company’s revenue and the public’s perception about its services; any inability to effectively manage the costs, rights and functionality of third-party distribution channels on which the Company relies; extensive government regulation, which may result in increases in the Company’s costs, disruptions to the Company’s operations, limits on the Company’s operating flexibility, reductions in the demand for air travel, and competitive disadvantages; the impact of the heavy taxation on the airline industry; changes to the Company’s business model that may not successfully increase revenues and may cause operational difficulties or decreased demand; the loss of key personnel or inability to attract and retain additional qualified personnel; the impact of conflicts overseas, terrorist attacks and ongoing security concerns; the global scope of the Company’s business and any associated economic and political instability or adverse effects of events, circumstances or government actions beyond its control, including the impact of foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and limitations on the repatriation of cash held in foreign countries; the impact of environmental and noise regulation; the impact associated with climate change, including increased regulation to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases; the Company’s reliance on technology and automated systems and the impact of any failure of these technologies or systems; challenges in integrating the Company’s computer, communications and other technology systems; losses and adverse publicity stemming from any accident involving any of the Company’s aircraft or the aircraft of its regional or codeshare operators; delays in scheduled aircraft deliveries, or other loss of anticipated fleet capacity, and failure of new aircraft to perform as expected; the Company’s dependence on a limited number of suppliers for aircraft, aircraft engines and parts; the impact of changing economic and other conditions beyond the Company’s control, including global events that affect travel behavior such as an outbreak of a contagious disease, and volatility and fluctuations in the Company’s results of operations due to seasonality; the effect of a higher than normal number of pilot retirements, more stringent duty-time regulations, increased flight hour requirements for commercial airline pilots and other factors that have caused a shortage of pilots; the impact of possible future increases in insurance costs or reductions in available insurance coverage; the effect on the Company’s financial position and liquidity of being party to or involved in litigation; an inability to use net operating losses carried forward from prior taxable years (NOL Carryforwards); any impairment in the amount of the Company’s goodwill and an inability to realize the full value of the Company’s intangible or long-lived assets and any material impairment charges that would be recorded as a result; price volatility of the Company’s common stock; the effects of the Company’s capital deployment program and the limitation, suspension or discontinuation of the Company’s share repurchase programs or dividend payments thereunder; delay or prevention of stockholders’ ability to change the composition of the Company’s board of directors and the effect this may have on takeover attempts that some of the Company’s stockholders might consider beneficial; the effect of provisions of the Company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation and Amended and Restated Bylaws that limit ownership and voting of its equity interests, including its common stock; the effect of limitations in the Company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation on acquisitions and dispositions of its common stock designed to protect its NOL Carryforwards and certain other tax attributes, which may limit the liquidity of its common stock; and other economic, business, competitive, and/or regulatory factors affecting the Company’s business, including those set forth in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 (especially in Part I, Item 2, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and Part II, Item 1A, Risk Factors) and other risks and uncertainties listed from time to time in the Company’s other filings with the SEC. There may be other factors of which the Company is not currently aware that may affect matters discussed in the forward-looking statements and may also cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof or as of the dates indicated in the statements. The Company does not assume any obligation to publicly update or supplement any forward-looking statement to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting these forward-looking statements other than as required by law.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information