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EX-99.1 - EX-99.1 - American Airlines Group Inc.d276967dex991.htm
8-K - FORM 8-K - American Airlines Group Inc.d276967d8k.htm

Exhibi 99.2

 

LOGO

Investor Relations Update

January 11, 2017

General Overview

 

    Pre-tax Margin The Company expects its fourth quarter pre-tax margin excluding special items to be approximately 7 to 9 percent1.

 

    Special Items The Company expects the value of its net special items (before the impact of taxes) in the fourth quarter to be approximately $275 million, principally consisting of merger integration expenses relating to fleet restructuring, information technology, professional fees, alignment of labor union contracts, and re-branding of aircraft, airport facilities and uniforms.

 

    Profit Sharing – On March 23, 2016, the Company announced that it would institute a profit sharing program, retrospective to January 1, 2016. As a result, the Company will now accrue 5 percent of its pre-tax profits excluding special items1 for this program, with an anticipated distribution to employees in early 2017.

 

    CASM – Mainline CASM excluding fuel and special items1 is expected to be up approximately 5 to 7 percent in 2016. This forecast incorporates the impact of the joint contracts with the Company’s customer service and reservation agents, dispatchers, flight crew training instructors and flight simulator engineers, as well as the interim agreement with the Company’s fleet service clerks and mechanics and the amended agreement with the Company’s regional pilots. This guidance and the CASM guidance in the following pages includes the impact of profit sharing.

 

    Capacity 2016 total system capacity was up 1.7 percent vs. 2015. Full year domestic capacity was up 1.8 percent year-over-year, while international capacity was up 1.4 percent vs. 2015.

 

    Liquidity – As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately $8.8 billion in total available liquidity, comprised of unrestricted cash and investments of $6.4 billion and $2.4 billion in undrawn revolver capacity. The Company also had a restricted cash position of $638 million.

 

    Fuel – The Company expects to pay an average of between $1.54 and $1.59 per gallon of mainline jet fuel (including taxes) in the fourth quarter. Forecasted volume and fuel prices are provided in the following pages.

 

    Cargo / Other Revenue Includes cargo revenue, loyalty program revenue, ticket change fees, excess/overweight baggage fees, first and second bag fees, contract services, airport clubs and inflight service revenues.

 

    Taxes – Following the filing of its annual tax return, the Company had approximately $10.5 billion of federal net operating losses (NOLs) and $4.0 billion of state NOLs, substantially all of which are expected to be available in 2016 to reduce future federal and state taxable income. The Company expects to recognize a provision for income taxes in 2016 at an effective rate of approximately 38 percent, which will be substantially non-cash.

Notes:

 

1. For a reconciliation of special items (including the Company’s estimates for the fourth quarter and full-year), please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document.

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

Mainline Update

January 11, 2017

Mainline Comments

 

    All operating expenses are for mainline operated flights only. Please refer to the following page for information pertaining to regional data.

 

    The year-over-year increase in mainline CASM excluding fuel and special items for the fourth quarter is primarily driven by investments in new labor agreements, maintenance timing, and increased depreciation and amortization resulting from increased capex.

 

    Other non-operating expense has increased from previous guidance due to the strengthening US dollar.

 

     1Q16A     2Q16A     3Q16A     4Q16E     FY16E2  

Mainline Guidance1

          

Available Seat Miles (ASMs) (bil)

     57.6        62.7        63.8        ~57.7        ~241.7   

CASM ex fuel and special items (YOY % change)3

     9.62        9.12        9.32        +9% to +11     +5% to +7

Cargo Revenues ($ mil)

     162        174        171        ~195        ~700   

Other Revenues ($ mil)

     1,186        1,194        1,273        ~1,245        ~4,900   

Average Fuel Price (incl. taxes) ($/gal) (as of 12/29/2016)

     1.20        1.41        1.46        1.54 to 1.59       1.39 to 1.44   

Fuel Gallons Consumed (mil)

     855        931        953        ~857        ~3,596   

Interest Income ($ mil)

     (13     (16     (16     ~(16     ~(61

Interest Expense ($ mil)

     239        249        250        ~255        ~993   

Other Non-Operating (Income)/Expense ($ mil)4,5

     (8     (11     8        ~20        ~9   

CAPEX Guidance ($ mil) Inflow/(Outflow)

          

Non-Aircraft CAPEX

     (258     (304     (338     ~(380     ~(1,280

Gross Aircraft CAPEX & net PDPs

     (1,295     (1,161     (834     ~(1,084     ~(4,373

Assumed Aircraft Financing6

     1,501        1,178        870        ~1,059        ~4,608   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net Aircraft CAPEX & PDPs2

     206        17        37        ~(25     ~236   

Notes:

 

1. Includes guidance on certain non-GAAP measures. Please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document.
2. Numbers may not recalculate due to rounding.
3. CASM ex fuel and special items is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document. All CASM guidance includes the impact of profit sharing.
4. Excludes special items; please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document.
5. Other Non-Operating (Income)/Expense primarily includes gains and losses from foreign currency.
6. Includes financing for 2016 aircraft deliveries, as well as the $1.1 billion of EETC financing completed in Q1 2016 for aircraft delivered in prior years.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

Regional Update

January 11, 2017

Regional Comments

 

    The Company receives feed from 10 regional airlines, including wholly owned subsidiaries Envoy, PSA Airlines and Piedmont Airlines.

 

    Republic Airways Holdings Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on February 25, 2016 and the court-supervised restructuring of that company is underway. As part of the restructuring process, Republic capacity provided to the Company has been significantly reduced commencing in the second quarter of 2016.

 

     1Q16A      2Q16A      3Q16A      4Q16E      FY16E2  

Regional Guidance1

              

Available Seat Miles (ASMs) (bil)

     7.50         8.08         8.16         ~7.93         ~31.68   

CASM ex fuel and special items (YOY % change)3

     16.11         15.29         15.08         -2% to -4%         -2% to -4%   

Average Fuel Price (incl. taxes) ($/gal) (as of 12/29/2016)

     1.24         1.46         1.55         1.63 to 1.68         1.46 to 1.51   

Fuel Gallons Consumed (mil)

     178         191         196         ~187         ~751   

 

    Regional Airlines     
 

Envoy4

  

Mesa Airlines, Inc.

  
 

SkyWest Airlines, Inc.5

  

Piedmont Airlines, Inc.4

  
 

ExpressJet Airlines, Inc.5

  

PSA Airlines, Inc.4

  
 

Republic Airline Inc.

  

Trans States Airlines, Inc.

  
 

Air Wisconsin Airlines Corporation

  

Compass Airlines, LLC

  

Notes:

1. Includes guidance on certain non-GAAP measures. Please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document.
2. Numbers may not recalculate due to rounding.
3. CASM ex fuel and special items is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please see the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the end of this document. All CASM guidance includes the impact of profit sharing.
4. Wholly owned subsidiary of American Airlines Group Inc.
5. Pro-rate agreement and capacity purchase agreement.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

Fleet Update

January 11, 2017

Fleet Comments

 

    In 2016, the Company took delivery of 55 mainline aircraft including 25 A321 aircraft, 20 B738 aircraft, 2 B773 aircraft, 4 B788 aircraft and 4 B789 aircraft. Also in 2016, the Company retired 71 mainline aircraft, including 4 A320 aircraft, 13 B757 aircraft, 14 B763 aircraft and 40 MD80 aircraft.

 

    In 2016, the Company increased the regional fleet count by 19 aircraft, with the addition of 18 CRJ700 aircraft, 18 CRJ900 aircraft and 15 E175 aircraft and the reduction of 8 CRJ200 aircraft, 3 Dash 8-100 aircraft, 20 E170 aircraft and the temporary storage of 1 ERJ140 aircraft.

 

            Active Mainline Ending Fleet Count  
     2015A      1Q16A      2Q16A      3Q16A      4Q16A  

A319

     125         125         125         125         125   

A320

     55         51         51         51         51   

A321

     174         180         187         193         199   

A332

     15         15         15         15         15   

A333

     9         9         9         9         9   

B738

     264         269         274         279         284   

B757

     64         57         55         52         51   

B763

     45         40         40         35         31   

B772

     47         47         47         47         47   

B773

     18         20         20         20         20   

B788

     13         15         17         17         17   

B789

     —           —           —           1         4   

E190

     20         20         20         20         20   

MD80

     97         94         87         58         57   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 
     946         942         947         922         930   
            Active Regional Ending Fleet Count 1  
     2015A      1Q16A      2Q16A      3Q16A      4Q16A  

CRJ200

     128         125         124         123         120   

CRJ700

     61         61         67         69         79   

CRJ900

     100         107         115         118         118   

DASH 8-100

     26         26         26         26         23   

DASH 8-300

     11         11         11         11         11   

E170

     20         20         2         —           —     

E175

     109         115         118         118         124   

ERJ140

     14         14         19         16         13   

ERJ145

     118         118         118         118         118   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 
     587         597         600         599         606   
 

Notes:

 

1. At the end of the fourth quarter, the Company had 46 ERJ140 regional aircraft in temporary storage not included in the active regional ending fleet count.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

Shares Outstanding

January 11, 2017

Shares Outstanding Comments

 

    The estimated weighted average shares outstanding for 2016 are listed below.

 

    On April 21, 2016, the Company’s Board authorized a new $2.0 billion share repurchase program which was completed in December 2016. The total amount of shares authorized and repurchased since the merger is $9.0 billion.

 

    In the fourth quarter, the Company repurchased 12.2 million shares at a cost of $554 million. Including share repurchases, shares withheld to cover taxes associated with employee equity awards and share distributions, and the cash extinguishment of convertible debt, the Company’s share count has dropped 33 percent from 756.1 million at merger close to 507.3 million shares on December 31, 2016.

 

2016 Shares Outstanding (shares mil)1

  

     Shares  

For Q4

   Basic      Diluted  

Earnings

     515         518   

Net loss

     515         515   
     Shares  

For FY 2016 Average

   Basic      Diluted  

Earnings

     552         556   

Net loss

     552         552   

Notes:

 

1. Shares outstanding are based upon several estimates and assumptions, including average per share stock price and stock award activity. The number of shares in actual calculations of earnings per share will likely be different from those set forth above.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation

January 11, 2017

The Company is providing disclosure of the reconciliation of reported non-GAAP financial measures to their comparable financial measures on a GAAP basis. The Company believes that the non-GAAP financial measures provide investors the ability to measure financial performance excluding special items, which is more indicative of the Company’s ongoing performance and is more comparable to measures reported by other major airlines. The Company believes that the presentation of mainline CASM excluding fuel and special items and regional CASM excluding fuel and special items is useful to investors because both the cost and availability of fuel are subject to many economic and political factors beyond the Company’s control.

 

     American Airlines Group Inc GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation  
     ($ mil except ASM and CASM data)  
     1Q16     2Q16     3Q16      4Q16 Range      FY16 Range  
     Actual     Actual     Actual      Low      High      Low      High  

Mainline1

                  

Mainline operating expenses

   $ 6,668      $ 7,094      $ 7,625       $ 7,380       $ 7,529       $ 28,582       $ 29,059   

Less mainline fuel expense

     1,029        1,314        1,393         1,320         1,363         5,056         5,099   

Less special items

     99        62        289         261         261         711         711   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Mainline operating expense excluding fuel and special items

     5,540        5,718        5,943         5,799         5,905         22,815         23,250   

Mainline CASM (cts)

     11.58        11.32        11.96         12.79         13.05         11.83         12.02   

Mainline CASM excluding fuel and special items (Non-GAAP) (cts)

     9.62        9.12        9.32         10.05         10.23         9.44         9.62   

Mainline ASMs (bil)

     57.6        62.7        63.8         57.7         57.7         241.7         241.7   

Regional1

                  

Regional operating expenses

   $ 1,432      $ 1,518      $ 1,538       $ 1,532       $ 1,567       $ 6,014       $ 6,126   

Less regional fuel expense

     219        279        303         305         314         1,106         1,115   

Less special items

     5        3        5         2         2         15         15   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Regional operating expenses excluding fuel and special items

     1,208        1,236        1,230         1,226         1,251         4,893         4,995   

Regional CASM (cts)

     19.10        18.78        18.85         19.32         19.76         18.98         19.34   

Regional CASM excluding fuel and special items (Non-GAAP) (cts)

     16.11        15.29        15.08         15.46         15.78         15.45         15.77   

Regional ASMs (bil)

     7.50        8.08        8.16         7.93         7.93         31.68         31.68   

Other non-operating (income)/expense1

                  

Other non-operating (income)/expense

   $ (8   $ 25      $ 8       $ 32       $ 32       $ 57       $ 57   

Less special items

     —          36        —           12         12         48         48   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Other non-operating (income)/expense excluding special items

     (8     (11     8         20         20         9         9   

Notes: Amounts may not recalculate due to rounding.

 

(1) Includes the Company’s estimate for special items for the fourth quarter and full-year. Special items for this period may include items related to merger/transition costs (including aircraft fleet restructuring costs and labor-related costs), bankruptcy-related costs and certain other costs.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information


LOGO

 

Forward Looking Statements

January 11, 2017

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This document includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “plan,” “project,” “could,” “should,” “would,” “continue,” “seek,” “target,” “guidance,” “outlook,” “if current trends continue,” “optimistic,” “forecast” and other similar words. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results, the Company’s plans, objectives, estimates, expectations and intentions, and other statements that are not historical facts such as, without limitation, statements that discuss the possible future effects of known trends or uncertainties, or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assumed. These forward-looking statements are based on the Company’s current objectives, beliefs and expectations, and they are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and financial position and timing of certain events to differ materially from the information in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to the following: significant operating losses in the future; downturns in economic conditions that adversely affect the Company’s business; the impact of continued periods of high volatility in fuel costs, increased fuel prices and significant disruptions in the supply of aircraft fuel; competitive practices in the industry, including the impact of low cost carriers, airline alliances and industry consolidation; the challenges and costs of integrating operations and realizing anticipated synergies and other benefits of the merger transaction with US Airways Group, Inc.; costs of ongoing data security compliance requirements and the impact of any significant data security breach; the Company’s substantial indebtedness and other obligations and the effect they could have on the Company’s business and liquidity; an inability to obtain sufficient financing or other capital to operate successfully and in accordance with the Company’s current business plan; increased costs of financing, a reduction in the availability of financing and fluctuations in interest rates; the effect the Company’s high level of fixed obligations may have on its ability to fund general corporate requirements, obtain additional financing and respond to competitive developments and adverse economic and industry conditions; the Company’s significant pension and other postretirement benefit funding obligations; the impact of any failure to comply with the covenants contained in financing arrangements; provisions in credit card processing and other commercial agreements that may materially reduce the Company’s liquidity; the impact of union disputes, employee strikes and other labor-related disruptions; any inability to maintain labor costs at competitive levels; interruptions or disruptions in service at one or more of the Company’s hub airports; any inability to obtain and maintain adequate facilities, infrastructure and slots to operate the Company’s flight schedule and expand or change its route network; the Company’s reliance on third-party regional operators or third-party service providers that have the ability to affect the Company’s revenue and the public’s perception about its services; any inability to effectively manage the costs, rights and functionality of third-party distribution channels on which the Company relies; extensive government regulation, which may result in increases in the Company’s costs, disruptions to the Company’s operations, limits on the Company’s operating flexibility, reductions in the demand for air travel, and competitive disadvantages; the impact of the heavy taxation on the airline industry; changes to the Company’s business model that may not successfully increase revenues and may cause operational difficulties or decreased demand; the loss of key personnel or inability to attract and retain additional qualified personnel; the impact of conflicts overseas, terrorist attacks and ongoing security concerns; the global scope of the Company’s business and any associated economic and political instability or adverse effects of events, circumstances or government actions beyond its control, including the impact of foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and limitations on the repatriation of cash held in foreign countries; the impact of environmental and noise regulation; the impact associated with climate change, including increased regulation to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases; the Company’s reliance on technology and automated systems and the impact of any failure of these technologies or systems; challenges in integrating the Company’s computer, communications and other technology systems; losses and adverse publicity stemming from any accident involving any of the Company’s aircraft or the aircraft of its regional or codeshare operators; delays in scheduled aircraft deliveries, or other loss of anticipated fleet capacity, and failure of new aircraft to perform as expected; the Company’s dependence on a limited number of suppliers for aircraft, aircraft engines and parts; the impact of changing economic and other conditions beyond the Company’s control, including global events that affect travel behavior such as an outbreak of a contagious disease, and volatility and fluctuations in the Company’s results of operations due to seasonality; the effect of a higher than normal number of pilot retirements, more stringent duty-time regulations, increased flight hour requirements for commercial airline pilots and other factors that have caused a shortage of pilots; the impact of possible future increases in insurance costs or reductions in available insurance coverage; the effect on the Company’s financial position and liquidity of being party to or involved in litigation; an inability to use net operating losses carried forward from prior taxable years (NOL Carryforwards); any impairment in the amount of the Company’s goodwill and an inability to realize the full value of the Company’s intangible or long-lived assets and any material impairment charges that would be recorded as a result; price volatility of the Company’s common stock; the effects of the Company’s capital deployment program and the limitation, suspension or discontinuation of the Company’s share repurchase programs or dividend payments thereunder; delay or prevention of stockholders’ ability to change the composition of the Company’s board of directors and the effect this may have on takeover attempts that some of the Company’s stockholders might consider beneficial; the effect of provisions of the Company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation and Amended and Restated Bylaws that limit ownership and voting of its equity interests, including its common stock; the effect of limitations in the Company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation on acquisitions and dispositions of its common stock designed to protect its NOL Carryforwards and certain other tax attributes, which may limit the liquidity of its common stock; and other economic, business, competitive, and/or regulatory factors affecting the Company’s business, including those set forth in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 (especially in Part I, Item 2, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and Part II, Item 1A, Risk Factors) and other risks and uncertainties listed from time to time in the Company’s other filings with the SEC. There may be other factors of which the Company is not currently aware that may affect matters discussed in the forward-looking statements and may also cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof or as of the dates indicated in the statements. The Company does not assume any obligation to publicly update or supplement any forward-looking statement to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting these forward-looking statements other than as required by law.

 

Please refer to the footnotes and the forward looking statements page of this document for additional information