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8-K - FORM 8-K - OLIN Corp | form8kq22016earningsslides.htm |
Second Quarter 2016 Earnings
Presentation
August 2, 2016
TM
Exhibit 99.1
Forward-Looking Statements
2
This communication includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to analyses and other information that are
based on management’s beliefs, certain assumptions made by management, forecasts of future results, and current expectations,
estimates and projections about the markets and economy in which we and our various segments operate. These statements may
include statements regarding our recent acquisition of the U.S. chlor alkali and downstream derivatives businesses (the “Acquired
Business”), the expected benefits and synergies of the transaction, and future opportunities for the combined company following
the transaction. The statements contained in this communication that are not statements of historical fact may include forward-
looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties.
We have used the words “anticipate,” “intend,” “may,” “expect,” “believe,” “should,” “plan,” “project,” “estimate,” “forecast,”
“optimistic,” and variations of such words and similar expressions in this communication to identify such forward-looking
statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions,
which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control.
Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from those matters expressed or implied in such forward-looking
statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to: factors relating to the
possibility that Olin may be unable to achieve expected synergies and operating efficiencies in connection with the transaction
within the expected time-frames or at all; the integration of the acquired chlorine products businesses being more difficult, time-
consuming or costly than expected; the effect of any changes resulting from the transaction in customer, supplier and other
business relationships; general market perception of the transaction; exposure to lawsuits and contingencies associated with the
acquired chlorine products business; the ability to attract and retain key personnel; prevailing market conditions; changes in
economic and financial conditions of our chlorine products business; uncertainties and matters beyond the control of
management; and the other risks detailed in Olin’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015 and Olin’s Form 10-Q
for the quarter ended March 31, 2016. The forward-looking statements should be considered in light of these factors. In addition,
other risks and uncertainties not presently known to Olin or that Olin considers immaterial could affect the accuracy of our
forward-looking statements. The reader is cautioned not to rely unduly on these forward-looking statements. Olin undertakes no
obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of future events, new information or otherwise.
In addition to U.S. GAAP financial measures, this presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures including Adjusted
EBITDA. These non-GAAP measures are in addition to, not a substitute for or superior to, measures for financial performance
prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Definitions of these measures and reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures are
provided in the appendix to this presentation.
Performance Highlights
3
3
Achieved Adjusted EBITDA of $180 million in the second quarter1
Full year 2016 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $840 million to $900 million
Forecasting third quarter 2016 Adjusted EBITDA range of $220 million to $250 million2
Expect full-year cost synergy realization of approximately $60 million
1: Second quarter net loss is $1 million
2: Olin anticipates third quarter net income in the range of $15 million to $35 million, or $0.10 to $0.20 per diluted share
Projected Third Quarter 2016 Adjusted EBITDA1
($ in millions)
4
1: Olin’s definition of “Adjusted EBITDA” (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is net (loss) income plus an add-back for depreciation and
amortization, interest expense (income), income tax expense (benefit), other expense (income), restructuring charges, acquisition-related costs, fair-value inventory
purchase accounting adjustment and other certain non-recurring items
2: Olin anticipates third quarter net income in the range of $15 million to $35 million, or $0.10 to $0.20 per diluted share
Second Quarter
$180M
+ Caustic pricing
+ Epoxy earnings
+ Winchester earnings
+ Lower turnaround costs
+ Higher synergy realization
- Higher natural gas costs
- Higher ethylene costs
Third Quarter Estimate
$220M to $250M2
Olin Caustic Soda Price Realization
• A $10 per ton change in Olin’s caustic soda selling price changes annual Adjusted EBITDA by
approximately $30 million
Fundamental Principle
Domestic Sales
• A significant portion of domestic sales are linked to index prices
• Index price changes typically occur 30 to 90 days post our price nomination
• Depending on market conditions 30% to 70% of index price changes are realized
• Overall price realization lags index price changes by 30 to 120 days
Export Sales
• Sold on a combination of negotiated sales and export index price
• Changes in export index prices are typically realized on a 30 to 90 day lag
• Realization of index price changes are typically 80% to 100%
5
Multi-Year View on Caustic Soda
North American chlor alkali capacity reductions
No major North American chlor alkali capacity additions announced
Increasing North American caustic exports
European mercury cell chlor alkali production sunset by the end of 2017
Growing caustic soda consumption coupled with lower vinyls demand within China is limiting
export caustic soda from China
6
2Q16 1Q16 ∆ Q/Q
Sales $733.0 $704.3 4.1%
Adjusted EBITDA $134.1 $170.0 (21.1)%
2Q16 Performance
Lower caustic pricing and unfavorable sales mix
Increased raw material costs associated with ethylene and natural gas pricing
Lower chlorinated organic volumes and pricing
3Q16 outlook – expected sequential improvement from 2Q16
Expected improvement in caustic soda pricing and volumes
Expected increase in raw materials costs associated with natural gas and ethylene
Expected improvement in bleach volumes
Expected decrease in maintenance turnaround costs
($ in millions)
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls
Segment Performance
7
2Q16 1Q16 ∆ Q/Q
Sales $450.0 $460.2 (2.2)%
Adjusted EBITDA $23.0 $29.9 (23.1)%
2Q16 Performance
Sales and Adjusted EBITDA lower primarily due to planned maintenance outages
3Q16 and 2H16 outlook – expect sequentially higher than 2Q16 and 1H16
Expect continued improvement in volumes
Absence of significant planned maintenance outages
Expected improvement in productivity
($ in millions)
Epoxy
Segment Performance
8
2Q16 Performance
Adjusted EBITDA improvement reflects lower commodity, other material and
manufacturing costs partially offset by lower commercial shipments
3Q16 outlook – expect sequential improvement from 2Q16 driven by stronger seasonal
demand
Full year 2016 earnings are expected to exceed full year 2015 results
Operating efficiency initiatives are expected to continue to materialize throughout 2016
Expect favorable trends in NICS background checks
Winchester
Segment Performance
9
2Q16 1Q16 ∆ Q/Q
Sales $181.0 $183.7 (1.5)%
Adjusted EBITDA $35.7 $33.3 7.2%
($ in millions)
2Q
$180
$395
$445 - $505
10
Full Year 2016 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook
1H16 2H16 FY16
$840 - $900
2H
$445 – $505
1Q
$215
($ in millions)
+ Caustic pricing
+ Epoxy earnings
+ Winchester earnings
+ Lower turnaround costs
+ Higher synergy realization
- Higher natural gas costs
- Higher ethylene costs
0 25 50 75 100
0
5
10
15
20
25
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
EDC Pricing History 2000 – June 2016
EDC Spot Export Prices
Ce
n
ts
P
er
P
o
u
n
d
Source: IHS
EDC Pricing Distribution
Percent of Time in Price Range
• A $0.01 change in Olin’s EDC sales price changes annual Adjusted EBITDA by $20 million
• Current index EDC prices are in the bottom 19% of actual prices over the past 15.5 years
11
Average
4%
15%
26%
10%
32%
14%
Chlorinated Organics Provides a Diverse Set of
Chlorine Outlets
12
Feedstocks Products End Uses
Value Drivers
Low-Cost ECU
Chlorinated By-
Products (HCI, RCI)
Hydrocarbons
(Methanol etc.)
Chlorinated
Organics
Low-cost energy
and feedstocks
Superior
manufacturing
technology and
processes
Breadth of channels, geographic reach, diversity of
end uses
Customer relationships and strong contract position
Packaging
Infrastructure
Agriculture
Nonstick
Coatings
Refrigeration
Inhaler
Propellant
Surface
Prep
Dry
Cleaning
Upside Potential through Significant
Realizable Synergies
$250
Logistics & Procurement
Operational Efficiencies
Asset Optimization
Accessing New
Segments &
Customers
Capital
Investment
Synergies
Breakdown
($M)
2016 2017 2018 2019
Projected
Annual
Impact
60 100-110 180-200 250
Projected
Year-End
Run Rate
80 135-165 230-250 250
Projected
Annual
Impact
0-5 15-25 40-50 100
Projected
Year-End
Run Rate
5 35-50 50 100
Projected
CAPEX and
Investments
205 30 20 0
Projected Cash
Integration &
Restructuring
Costs
70 35 35 20
13
Working
Capital4
Adjusted
EBITDA1
Free Cash
Flow
After
Dividend
Cash
Tax
Refund2
Capital
Spending
and
Investments3
Free
Cash Flow
$870
$25
($475)
($19) ($185)
$391 ($132)
$259
1: Mid-point of Olin’s estimated Adjusted EBITDA range of $840 to $900 million for full year 2016
2: Estimated using the mid-point of the cash tax rate of 25% to 30% and the benefits from the 2015 NOL carryforward and tax refunds
3: Represents the mid-point of management’s annual capital spending estimate range of $280 to $320 million which includes $30 million of synergy capital and $175 million of investments for additional
low cost electricity. The investments improve the manufacturing flexibility at the Freeport, TX and Plaquemine, LA facilities, reduce overall electricity costs and accelerate the realization of cost synergies
available from the Acquired Business
4: Net working capital reduction includes a program to accelerate the collection of receivables
5: One-time items include integration expenses and cash restructuring charges of $70 million, partially offset by insurance recovery ($11 million) and asset sales ($40 million)
6: Calculated based on Olin’s capital structure, mandatory debt repayments and assuming current interest rates
7: Calculated based on 165 million shares outstanding and an annual dividend rate of $0.80 per share
2016 Cash Flow Waterfall Forecast
One-time
Items 5
Dividend 7
Interest 6
($ in millions)
$175
14
Appendix
15
Non-GAAP Financial Measures – Adjusted EBITDA (a)
(a) Unaudited.
(b) Restructuring charges for the three months ended June 30, 2016 and March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016 were primarily associated with the closure of
433,000 tons of chlor alkali capacity across three separate Olin locations, of which $76.6 million was non-cash impairment charges for equipment and facilities for the three
months ended March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016.
(c) Acquisition-related costs for the three months ended June 30, 2016 and March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016 were associated with our acquisition of the
Acquired Business.
(d) Certain non-recurring items for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016 included an $11.0 million insurance recovery for property
damage and business interruption related to a 2008 Henderson, NV chlor alkali facility incident.
16
Six Months
Ended
June 30, March 31, June 30,
(In millions) 2016 2016 2016
Reconciliation of Net Loss to Adjusted EBITDA:
Net Loss (1.0)$ (37.9)$ (38.9)$
Add Back:
Interest Expense 47.6 48.5 96.1
Interest Income (0.5) (0.3) (0.8)
Income Tax Benefit (22.6) (17.5) (40.1)
Depreciation and Amortization 132.4 129.7 262.1
EBITDA 155.9 122.5 278.4
Add Back:
Restructuring Charges (b) 8.2 92.8 101.0
Acquisition-related Costs (c) 16.3 10.2 26.5
Certain Non-recurring Items (d) - (11.0) (11.0)
Adjusted EBITDA 180.4$ 214.5$ 394.9$
Three Months Ended
Olin's definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net (loss) income plus an add-back for depreciation and amortization,
interest expense (income), income tax expense (benefit), other expense (income), restructuring charges, acquisition-related costs, fair value inventory purchase accounting
adjustments and other certain non-recurring items. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors as a
supplemental financial measure to assess the financial performance of our assets without regard to financing methods, capital structures, taxes, or historical cost basis. The use of
non-GAAP financial measures is not intended to replace any measures of performance determined in accordance with GAAP and Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be
comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. Reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial
measures are omitted from this presentation because Olin is unable to provide such reconciliations without the use of unreasonable efforts. This inability results from the
inherent difficulty in forecasting generally and quantifying certain projected amounts that are necessary for such reconciliations. In particular, sufficient information is not
available to calculate certain adjustments required for such reconciliations, including interest expense (income), income tax expense (benefit), other expense (income),
restructuring charges, and acquisition-related costs. Because of our inability to calculate such adjustments, forward-looking net income guidance is also omitted from this
presentation. We expect these adjustments to have a potentially significant impact on our future GAAP financial results.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures – Net Income
(loss) from Operations per share (a)
(a) Unaudited.
(b) Restructuring charges for the three months ended June 30, 2016 and March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016 were primarily associated with the closure of
433,000 tons of chlor alkali capacity across three separate Olin locations, of which $76.6 million was non-cash impairment charges for equipment and facilities for the three
months ended March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016.
(c) Acquisition-related costs for the three months ended June 30, 2016 and March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016 were associated with our acquisition of the
Acquired Business.
(d) Certain non-recurring items for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016 included an $11.0 million insurance recovery for property
damage and business interruption related to a 2008 Henderson, NV chlor alkali facility incident.
(e) Step-up depreciation and amortization for the three months ended June 30, 2016 and March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016 was associated with the
increase to fair value of property, plant and equipment, acquired intangible assets and long-term supply contracts at the acquisition date related to the purchase accounting of the
Acquired Business.
(f) The effective tax rate on the pretax adjustments from net loss per share to adjusted net income from operations per share is approximately 37% for the three months ended
June 30, 2016 and March 31, 2016 and for the six months ended June 30, 2016.
Six Months
Ended
June 30, March 31, June 30,
2016 2016 2016
Reconciliation of Net Loss Per Share to Adjusted Net Income from Operations Per Share:
Net Loss Per Share (0.01)$ (0.23)$ (0.24)$
Add Back:
Restructuring Charges (b) 0.05 0.56 0.61
Acquisition-related Costs (c) 0.10 0.06 0.16
Certain Non-recurring Items (d) - (0.07) (0.07)
Step-Up Depreciation and Amortization (e) 0.26 0.23 0.49
Income Tax Impact (f) (0.16) (0.29) (0.45)
Adjusted Net Income from Operations Per Share 0.24$ 0.26$ 0.50$
Three Months Ended
17
Olin's definition of adjusted net income (loss) from operations per share is net income (loss) per share plus a per dilutive share add-back for step-up depreciation and amortization
recorded in conjunction with the Acquired Business, restructuring charges, acquisition-related costs, other certain non-recurring items and the tax impact of the aforementioned
adjustments. Adjusted net income (loss) from operations per share is a non-GAAP financial measure excluding certain items that we do not consider part of ongoing operations.
Management believes that this supplemental financial measure is meaningful to investors as a financial performance metric which is useful to investors for comparative purposes.
The use of non-GAAP financial measures is not intended to replace any measures of performance determined in accordance with GAAP and adjusted net income (loss) from
operations per share presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies
Non-GAAP Financial Measures by Segment
18
(In millions)
Income (loss)
before Taxes
Depreciation and
Amortization
Adjusted
EBITDA
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls 30.7$ 103.4$ 134.1$
Epoxy - 23.0 23.0
Winchester 31.2 4.5 35.7
(In millions)
Income (loss)
before Taxes
Depreciation and
Amortization
Adjusted
EBITDA
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls 68.1$ 101.9$ 170.0$
Epoxy 8.2 21.7 29.9
Winchester 28.7 4.6 33.3
Three Months Ended June 30, 2016
Three Months Ended March 31, 2016
2Q16 versus
2Q15 1Q16
Chlorine
Caustic Soda
EDC N/A
Bleach
HCI
Chlorinated
Organics
N/A
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls
Pricing and Volume Comparisons
2Q16 versus
2Q15 1Q16
Chlorine
Caustic Soda N/A
EDC N/A
Bleach
HCI
Chlorinated
Organics
N/A
Volume Comparison Pricing Comparison
19
Corporate & Other
20
2Q16 1Q16
Pension Income $12.6 $12.2
Environmental Expense $(2.4) $(2.7)
Other Corporate and
Unallocated Costs
$(23.9) $(29.6)
Restructuring Charges $(8.2) $(92.8)
Acquisition-related Costs $(16.3) $(10.2)
($ in millions)
Corporate and other unallocated costs are consistent with our full year 2016 expectations that levels will
be higher than the full year 2015 due to the build out of our corporate capabilities since the acquisition
Corporate and other unallocated costs are lower in 2Q16 due to decreased legal and litigation costs and
lower management incentive compensation, partially offset by mark-to-market stock-based compensation
Restructuring costs in 1H16 related to the closure of 433,000 tons of chlor alkali capacity, 1Q16 includes
$76.6 million of non-cash impairment charges
Acquisition-related costs were associated with our integration of the Acquired Business
Guidance Assumptions
21
Full Year 2016
Forecast
Key Elements
Capital Spending $250 to $290
Maintenance level of capital spending of $225M to $275M
annually
Synergy Capital &
Investments
$205
Synergy projects include chlorine loading, bleach capacity and
low cost power investments
Total $455 to $495
Depreciation &
Amortization
$355 to $375
Fair Value Step up of D&A $160
Property, plant and equipment and intangible assets fair value
step up of approximately $2.5B – final valuation not yet
complete
Total $515 to $535
Book Effective Tax Rate
Not
Meaningful
Expect significant variations in the customary relationship
between tax expense and pretax income due to lower levels of
pretax income and favorable book/tax permanent differences
Cash Tax Rate
$25 Refund
(Normalized
25% to 30%)
2016 cash tax refund utilizes the benefits of NOL carry
forwards from 2015 and income tax refunds
($ in millions)
End slide
TM
22