Attached files
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| 8-K - 8-K - FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORP | a2015q2earningsrelease8-k.htm |
| EX-99.1 - EXHIBIT 99.1 - FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORP | a2015q2pressrelease.htm |
2015 Equity Investor Presentation Second Quarter
FARMER MAC Forward-Looking Statements In addition to historical information, this presentation includes forward- looking statements that reflect management’s current expectations for Farmer Mac’s future financial results, business prospects, and business developments. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate, or imply future results, performance, or achievements. Management’s expectations for Farmer Mac’s future necessarily involve a number of assumptions and estimates and the evaluation of risks and uncertainties. Various factors or events could cause Farmer Mac’s actual results to differ materially from the expectations as expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Some of these factors are identified and discussed in Farmer Mac’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on March 16, 2015, Quarterly Report on Form 10- Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2015, filed with the SEC on May 11, 2015, and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for quarter ended June 30, 2015, filed with the SEC on August 10, 2015, which are also available on Farmer Mac’s website (www.farmermac.com). In light of these potential risks and uncertainties, no undue reliance should be placed on any forward-looking statements expressed in this presentation. Any forward-looking statements made in this presentation are current only as of June 30, 2015 except as otherwise indicated. Farmer Mac undertakes no obligation to release publicly the results of revisions to any such forward-looking statements to reflect new information or any future events or circumstances, except as otherwise mandated by the SEC. The information contained in this presentation is not necessarily indicative of future results. NO OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF SECURITIES This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any Farmer Mac security. Farmer Mac securities are offered only in jurisdictions where permissible by offering documents available through qualified securities dealers. Any investor who is considering purchasing a Farmer Mac security should consult the applicable offering documents for the security and their own financial and legal advisors for information about and analysis of the security, the risks associated with the security, and the suitability of the investment for the investor’s particular circumstances. Copyright © 2015 by Farmer Mac. No part of this document may be duplicated, reproduced, distributed, or displayed in public in any manner or by any means without the written permission of Farmer Mac. EQUITY INVESTOR PRESENTATION 2015 02
FARMER MAC Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation is for general informational purposes only, is current only as of June 30, 2015, and should be read in conjunction with Farmer Mac’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on August 10, 2015. Farmer Mac uses core earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, to measure corporate economic performance and develop financial plans because, in management's view, core earnings is a useful alternative measure in understanding Farmer Mac's economic performance, transaction economics, and business trends. Core earnings principally differs from net income attributable to common stockholders by excluding the effects of fair value fluctuations, which are not expected to have a cumulative net impact on financial condition or results of operations reported in accordance with GAAP if the related financial instruments are held to maturity, as is generally expected. Core earnings also differs from net income attributable to common stockholders by excluding specified infrequent or unusual transactions that Farmer Mac believes are not indicative of future operating results and that may not reflect the trends and economic financial performance of Farmer Mac's core business. This non-GAAP financial measure may not be comparable to similarly labeled non-GAAP financial measures disclosed by other companies. Farmer Mac's disclosure of this non-GAAP measure is intended to be supplemental in nature, and is not meant to be considered in isolation from, as a substitute for, or as more important than, the related financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. EQUITY INVESTOR PRESENTATION 2015 03
FARMER MAC Table of Contents 05 Executive Summary 13 Agricultural Industry Highlights 22 Farmer Mac Overview 34 Farmer Mac Financial Performance 41 Appendix EQUITY INVESTOR PRESENTATION 2015 04
Executive Summary
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac Overview Created in the 1980s to help prevent future agricultural credit crises • Provide wholesale financing, secondary market and credit enhancements for agricultural and rural utilities lenders (rural credit) • Increase access to rural credit and drive more efficient credit pricing • Reduce rural credit market volatility by increasing liquidity and lending capacity for rural lenders Lines of business – focused on customers • Farm & Ranch • USDA Guarantees • Rural Utilities • Institutional Credit Diverse product suite provided to customers • Loan purchases • Wholesale financing • Credit protection EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 06 1987 1996 1998 1999 2008 Farmer Mac initially chartered by Congress as an instrumentality of the United States First major charter revision and expansion of authority (direct loan purchases) Outstanding business volume reaches $1 billion First listed on NYSE (AGM & AGM.A) Second major charter revision and expansion of authority (Rural Utilities) Outstanding business volume reaches $10 billion
FARMER MAC $11.9 Billion {6.5% Market Share} Agricultural Real Estate Mortgage Market Structure EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 07 FINANCIAL INVESTORS (Developing Market) | various institutional investors investing in agricultural assets (and seeking leverage) FARM CREDIT SYSTEM (GSE) Retail & Agribusiness NON-FCS AG LENDERS Secondary Market CREDIT PROTECTION CREDIT PROTECTION W HOLESALE FINANCING LOAN SALES Primary Agriculture Mortgage Market {Farmers & Ranchers} Mortgage Financing Mortgage Financing $183 Billion $ 8 9 B il li o n $ 9 4 B illio n F C S F U N D IN G C O R P O R A T IO N A G F IR S T S o u th e a s t $ 1 0 B A G R IB A N K M id w e s t $ 4 6 B F C B O F T X S o u th w e s t $ 1 0 B C O B A N K N a ti o n w id e $ 2 3 B IN S U R A N C E C O M P A N IE S $ 1 3 B A G B A N K S $ 6 2 B N O N -B A N K L E N D E R S $ 1 9 B 7 6 R E T A IL A C A s (1) Ag real estate mortgage market structure shown here includes only the outstanding unpaid principal balance of first lien ag mortgage assets as of December 31, 2014. (2) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, nominal dollars for year-end 2014; data is preliminary as of February 2015. (3) Source: Farm Credit Administration, Call Report Data for year-end 2014 (as of December 2014). (4) Sum of FCS, non-FCS, and Farmer Mac first lien ag real estate mortgage assets does not add up to the total due to the nature of Farmer Mac’s secondary market business model. (1) (2) (3) (2) (4) (4) AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2014 (1)
FARMER MAC Rural Utilities (RU) Cooperative Mortgage Market EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 08 FARM CREDIT SYSTEM (GSE) NON-GSE RU LENDERS $ 1 2 Bi ll io n $2 0 B illio n C O B A N K (2) (3) $2.7 Billion {8.2% Market Share} Secondary Market CREDIT PROTECTION W HOLESALE FINANCING LOAN SALES Rural Utilities Cooperative Mortgage Market {900+ Cooperatives in Util it ies Distribution, Generation and Transmission.} Mortgage Financing Mortgage Financing (3) $32 Billion (4) N A T IO N A L R U R A L U T IL IT IE S C O O P E R A T IV E F IN A N C E C O R P O R A T IO N Market Opportunity Kilowatt-hour sales growing nearly 3% annually (2013 and 2014), the first growth in several years • Generally leads to increased demand for credit Other industry dynamics leading to Farmer Mac growth opportunities • Push toward higher Tier 1 capital and more duration-matched funding • Trend toward retiring debt away from the RUS (USDA) funding source • Capital expenditures for greater use of natural gas-fired electricity production (1) RU cooperative mortgage market structure shown here includes only the outstanding unpaid principal balance of first lien RU cooperative real estate mortgage assets as of December 31, 2014. (2) Source: CoBank 2014 Financial Information, Energy Loan Portfolio nominal dollars as of December 31, 2014. (3) Source: NRUCFC 10-Q, nominal dollars as of November 30, 2014, Long-term Loans Table 6. (4) Nominal dollars for 2014; Sum of FCS, non-GSE and Farmer Mac first lien RU cooperative real estate mortgage assets does not add up to the total due to the nature of Farmer Mac’s secondary market business model. AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2014 (1) (1)
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac Business Volume $ IN BILLIONS Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15 Agricultural Outstanding Business Volume $2.4 $3.1 $4.2 $5.5 $5.8 $5.5 $5.3 $7.2 $8.5 $9.0 $8.6 $9.6 $9.6 $10.7 $11.4 $11.9 $12.1 Total Outstanding Volume $2.4 $3.1 $4.2 $5.5 $5.8 $5.5 $5.3 $7.2 $8.5 $10.1 $10.7 $12.2 $11.9 $13.0 $14.0 $14.6 $15.1 Ag Real Estate Mortgage Market and Farmer Mac $87 $85 $89 $98 $97 $104 $114 $113 $132 $148 $146 $154 $167 $173 $178 $183 $186 2.7% 3.7% 4.7% 5.6% 6.0% 5.2% 4.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.1% 5.9% 6.2% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015F $ I N B IL L IO N S Agricultural Real Estate Mortgage Market Ag Real Estate Mortgage Market AGM – Ag Real Estate Mortgage Market Share (1) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, nominal dollars; 2014 data is preliminary (as of February 2015). (2) Farmer Mac business volume includes total outstanding balance of Farm & Ranch loan purchases, guarantees, Long-Term Standby Purchase Commitments (LTSPCs), USDA Guarantees, and AgVantage securities secured by collateral eligible for the Farm & Ranch line of business; excludes all Rural Utilities assets and AgVantage securities secured by collateral eligible for Rural Utilities line of business. (1) (2) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 09 (2)
FARMER MAC $2,300 $2,520 $2,730 $2,950 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 2011 2012 2013 2014P $ P E R A C R E Land Value (2)(4) Agricultural Industry Dashboard $114 $103 $129 $108 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 2011 2012 2013 2014P $ I N B IL L IO N S Farm Income (1) 286 317 291 197 182 189 195 238 0 100 200 300 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 IN D E X Commodity Index Feed Grains Prices Received Index Livestock Prices Received Index (2)(3) 2.10% 1.67% 1.23% 0.96% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2011 2012 2013 2014 90-Day Delinquencies (5) (1) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, nominal dollars; 2014 data is preliminary (as of February 2015). (2) Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; 2014 data is preliminary (as of February 2015). (3) Commodity prices indexed according to 1999 base year as 100. (4) Land values per acre include all farm and pasture land, irrigated and non-irrigated. (5) Source: Kansas City Federal Reserve, Ag Finance Databook & Farm Credit Funding Corp Annual Information Statements – Non-accrual real estate loans and accruing loans that are 90 days or more past due, include commercial and farm credit system banks; 2Q15 data not yet available. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 10-year Average $85 billion 10-year Average 1.53% 10-year Average $2,236
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac Dashboard $42.9 $49.6 $54.9 $53.0 $20.7 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15 YTD $ I N M IL L IO N S Core Earnings EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 106 104 96 91 87 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15 YTD B A S IS P O IN T S Net Effective Spread $11.9 $13.0 $14.0 $14.6 $15.1 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 2Q15 $ I N B IL L IO N S Outstanding Business Volume 93 70 55 35 58 0 20 40 60 80 100 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 2Q15 B A S IS P O IN T S 90-Day Delinquencies (Farm & Ranch Line of Business Only) (1) Delinquencies include loans held and loans underlying off-balance sheet Farm & Ranch Guaranteed Securities and LTSPCs that are 90 days or more past due, in foreclosure, or in bankruptcy, excluding loans performing under either their original loan terms or a court-approved bankruptcy plan. (1)
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac’s Investment Highlights • Rigorous underwriting standards • Low delinquencies • Low cumulative historical credit losses Quality Assets • Finance assets through issuance of low-cost public debt • Issue at narrow, GSE spreads to U.S. Treasuries Funding Advantage • Robust worldwide demand for agricultural products • Increase market share through business development efforts • Significant wholesale financing opportunities Growth Prospects • Overhead / outstanding business volume ~ 25 bps • Outstanding business volume ~$200 million per employee Operational Efficiency • Core earnings growth • Annual core earnings return on equity ~ 15% to 25% • Steady growth in common dividends in recent years Consistent Returns EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12
Agricultural Industry Highlights
FARMER MAC State of Agriculture Grain prices fell in 2014 due to record plantings/yields; livestock prices remain generally high • U.S. agricultural product use increased 6% in 2014; however, ending stocks also increased due to record grain production • Exports increased 8.2%, driven by strong overseas demand for U.S. grains and oilseeds Farm income declined 16% in 2014 as grain prices declined 10% • At $100 billion, 2014 farm income still significantly above the 10-year average of $85 billion • Livestock profitability generally supported by high prices and stable/modestly decreasing costs (excluding Dairy) • Dairy prices are under pressure as a result of increased production and lower overseas demand Average inflation-adjusted U.S. agricultural real estate values increased 1% in 2014 • Corn belt farmland values down between 3% and 7% as falling grain prices reduced regional income • Rest of U.S. land values remain stable to modestly increasing, led by demand for pasture ground • Continued softening of land values in grain-heavy states in 2015 Land sales transactions have slowed with lower income and declining land values • However, demographic trend (average age of U.S. farmer >60 years) to support primary transaction volume California drought persists; however, it has not had a material impact on Farmer Mac’s credit quality • California farmers with access to water are earning record profits and quality land continues to increase in value AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS 14 (1) Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (as of February 2015). (2) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Nominal (current dollars) (as of February 2015). (3) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Seventh District, Ag Credit Conditions Survey AgLetter (as of May 2015). (1) (2) (3)
FARMER MAC Global Outlook Demand • Significant projected increase in demand for agricultural commodities and products due to greater incomes (higher protein diet) and a larger population • 43% increase in global population projected between 2005 and 2050 • As incomes in developing countries increase, food consumption shifts to diets richer in animal protein, which increases the demand for feed crops Supply • In order to meet minimum demand projections, productivity would need to nearly double in key commodity groups by 2050 • USDA’s Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM) projects a 75% increase in total production and consumption of major field crops between 2005 and 2050 due to higher protein diets AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS 15 (1) (1) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply, September 2014.
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac’s Unique Market Position Farmer Mac enjoys a unique position, sharing in upside opportunity in strong markets and benefiting from downside protection and increased relative demand in weak markets Strong Market – Farmer Mac can participate in the upside • Situation: Credit is healthy, transaction volumes are high, and capital is plentiful • Impacts on Farmer Mac: – Farmer Mac can benefit from the higher industry volumes and healthy credit – However, when farm income is high and capital is plentiful, the relative value of access to GSE capital can be marginally lower – Earnings can benefit from lower credit costs, but spreads may be tighter Weak Market – Farmer Mac can benefit from loss protection and increased demand due to tighter credit conditions • Situation: Declining farm income, land values and credit quality; less access to capital • Impacts on Farmer Mac: – Farmer Mac can benefit from loss protection given its diversified geographic/commodity portfolio and conservative underwriting standards – Farmer Mac can also benefit from the greater relative value of GSE capital in tighter credit market conditions – However, in bear markets, no entity will be immune to declining credit quality, although spreads may be more favorable AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS 16
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac’s Downside Protection Conservative underwriting with significant focus on repayment strength and low LTVs • Total Debt Coverage (TDC) ratio of at least 1.25x • Generally maximum LTVs of 60% to 70%, but in practice average 40% to 45% on mortgages purchased • Require minimum borrower net equity of 50% across all agricultural assets • Significant scrutiny given to property access and access to water, among other items Farmer Mac credits less likely to default as compared to the broader industry • Farmer Mac is generally recognized as having the tightest credit requirements for ag mortgage loans • Primary focus on repayment capacity through stressed input assumptions during underwriting process • Farmer Mac is not a “lender of last resort”; Farm Credit Administration is a strong safety and soundness regulator Farmer Mac credits less likely to incur losses even when a default occurs • “Expected losses” of farm asset values range from 0% to 30% for various commodity types in base case scenario • “Stress scenario losses” of farm asset values range from 17% to 50% for various commodity types • Given Farmer Mac’s portfolio average LTV of 46% as of June 30, average farm asset value losses would need to be in excess of 53% to begin to generate the first dollar of loss to Farmer Mac – The 1980s agricultural credit crisis saw land values decline approximately 23% from peak to trough AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS 17
FARMER MAC $48 $51 $55 $39 $61 $87 $79 $57 $70 $79 $57 $75 $114 $103 $129 $108 197 238 311 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P IN D E X $ I N B IL L IO N S Nominal Farm Income Grain Index Livestock Index Export Change Index (1) (2) (2) (1) Farm Income and Related Trends (1) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, nominal dollars; 2014 Farm Income data is preliminary (as of February 2015). (2) Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Indexed to 1999 as 100. AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS 18
FARMER MAC Ag Land Value and Leverage Trends $1.0 $1.1 $1.2 $1.2 $1.3 $1.3 $1.6 $1.8 $2.0 $2.2 $2.1 $2.2 $2.3 $2.5 $2.7 $3.0 $48 $51 $55 $39 $61 $87 $79 $57 $70 $79 $57 $75 $114 $103 $129 $108 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P $ IN B IL L IO N S A V E R A GE L A N D V A L U E $ I N T H O U S A N D S /A C R E Ag Land Values Land Value Nominal Farm Income 10.6% Average 12.4% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P D E B T TO A S S E T R A T IO ( % ) Leverage Debt to Asset Ratio Average (1) Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (as of February 2015); land values per acre includes all farm and pasture land, irrigated and non-irrigated. (2) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, nominal dollars; 2014 data is preliminary (as of February 2015). (1) (2) (2) AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS 19
FARMER MAC Agricultural Risk Management Tools Farmers today use a broad array of risk management tools, many of which were not available or not accepted during the ag credit crisis of the 1980s • Many view costs of hedging simply as a cost of doing business • Have learned from their parents’ experiences in the 1980s • Risk management includes revenue and cost protection and more sophisticated asset liability management Revenue Hedging • Crop insurance – approximately 91% of planted acres carry some form of crop insurance • Crop insurance premiums still federally subsidized and losses shared by the federal government • Futures/forward sales – many producers use hedging instruments to sell grain crops forward at planting stage Cost Hedging • Feed costs hedged with futures/forwards • Fertilizer and fuel costs can be similarly hedged • Water availability can be provided via “water banks” and secondary sources of water, e.g. wells • Water costs can also be hedged with forward purchase agreements Debt service is better managed with lower absolute leverage levels and better ALM AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS 20 (1) Source: USDA, 2013 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) Farm Financial and Crop Production Practices Summary Report. (1)
FARMER MAC USDA – Key 2015 Forecasts Demand for U.S. agricultural products to increase 2.0% • Demographic trends and a stabilizing economy contributing to growth • Certain trends in key commodities, such as pork and poultry consumption, also contributing • Total U.S. exports to decrease 7.3% to $141.5 billion, driven by higher global ending stocks and a stronger U.S. dollar marginally reducing growth U.S. farm income to decline approximately 30% to $74 billion • Grain prices remain range-bound at lower levels and livestock prices gradually ease as production grows • Input costs are stable to modestly declining – Labor, seed, and water costs are largely static, while fertilizer, fuel, and feed costs are declining modestly Average U.S. ag land values expected to stay relatively flat at 2014 levels • Midwest most impacted with estimates ranging from 5% to 15% declines as compared to 2014 levels • Rest of U.S. remains stable to modestly increasing – high non-grain commodity prices and high demand for pasture ground contributing to appreciation Total U.S. agricultural mortgage market to grow 2% to $186 billion AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS 21 (1) Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (as of February 2015). (2) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, nominal dollars (as of February 2015). (3) Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (as of April 2015). (1) (2) (3)
Farmer Mac Overview
FARMER MAC Lines of Business and Products Product Type Customers Lines of Business $ IN BILLIONS AND PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL VOLUME LOAN PURCHASES • Ag Banks • Insurance Companies • Rural Utilities Cooperatives F & R USDA RU IC Total $2.7 18% $1.9 13% $0.9 6% -- $5.5 37% WHOLESALE FINANCING • AgVantage • Farm Equity AgVantage • Ag Banks • Insurance Companies • Ag Investment Funds • Production and Agribusiness Companies • Rural Utilities Cooperatives -- -- -- $6.8 45% $6.8 45% CREDIT PROTECTION • Long-term Standby Purchase Commitments (LTSPCs)/ AMBS Guarantees • FCS Institutions • Ag Banks • Insurance Companies • Ag Investment Funds • Rural Utilities Cooperatives $2.8 18% -- -- -- $2.8 18% Total $5.5 $1.9 $0.9 $6.8 $15.1 = Allowances and provisions recorded on these assets FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 23 AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
FARMER MAC Business Development Product Type Marketing Channel Target Customers AGRICULTURAL LOAN PURCHASES AND CREDIT PROTECTION; USDA GUARANTEES PURCHASES • Marketing department with 5 relationship managers • Geographically dispersed nationwide • Cover ag banks and non-bank originators • Seek to add new ag lenders as eligible loan sellers for Farmer Mac • Seek to add LTSPCs • Over 3,200 commercial banks with agricultural loans on-balance sheet (approximately 700 are currently sellers) • Special focus on large-cap ag banks • Farm Credit System (FCS) WHOLESALE FINANCING FOR RURAL LENDERS • Director of Institutional Business Development • C-suite outreach to target firms • Attend industry conferences • Insurance company ag lenders not currently using Farmer Mac • Larger banks with ag mortgage portfolios • Rural utilities cooperative lenders WHOLESALE FINANCING FOR INVESTORS IN AG ASSETS • Same as Wholesale Financing for Rural Lenders • Paid deal sourcing relationships with industry contacts • Leverage capital markets relationships to identify ag funds and ag companies seeking low-cost wholesale financing • Public or private ag investment funds (all structures) • Agricultural companies – production ag and agribusiness (for profit and cooperative) RURAL UTILITIES LOAN PURCHASES • C-suite relationships • Credit department contacts • Capital markets relationship contacts • National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (non-GSE) • CoBank (FCS GSE) FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 24 (1) (1) Source: FDIC Statistics on Depository Institutions datasets (https://www2.fdic.gov/sdi/index.asp).
FARMER MAC Outstanding Volume - Portfolio Summary Farm & Ranch 36% USDA Guarantees 13% Rural Utilities 6% Institutiona l Credit 45% By Line of Business AgVantage 45% On-Balance Sheet Loans 24% LTSPCs 14% AMBS 4% USDA 13% By Product Type FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 25 AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
FARMER MAC Northwest 11% Southwest 31% Mid-North 35% Mid-South 12% Northeast 4% Southeast 7% By Geographic Region Crops 56% Permanent Plantings 17% Livestock 22% Part-time Farm 3% Ag. Storage and Processing 2% By Commodity Type Farm & Ranch Loans Portfolio Diversification FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 26 (1) Farm & Ranch Loans include on-balance sheet loans and LTSPCs. AS OF JUNE 30, 2015 (1)
FARMER MAC Core earnings are primarily a direct function of three key factors: Core Earnings Value Drivers FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 27 Value Drivers Things to Consider BUSINESS VOLUME •Macro supply/demand for ag credit •Farmer Mac business development success • Impact of potential credit quality shocks • Impact of potential rate shocks NET EFFECTIVE SPREAD •Macro supply/demand for ag credit •Absolute level of interest rates •Business mix •Delinquencies CREDIT QUALITY • Idiosyncratic borrower impacts: death in family, divorce, & disease •Commodity price volatility •Acts of Nature – droughts, disease, etc.
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac Outstanding Business Volumes $15.1 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15 $ I N B IL L IO N S FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 28 12% CAGR (1999 to 2014)
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac Net Effective Spread FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 29 69 78 106 97 106 106 104 96 91 87 0.9% 0.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15 YTD M OO D Y ’S C OR P OR A TE S P R E A D IN D E X N E T E FF E C T IV E S P R E A D B A S IS P O IN T S Farmer Mac Net Effective Spread Moody's Corporate Spread Index(2) (1) Beginning Jan. 1, 2015, Farmer Mac classified all of the income from Farmer Mac Guaranteed Securities that it holds in its portfolio as interest income. Periods prior to 2011 have not been restated. (2) Source: St. Louis Fed, Economic Database: Average Moody’s Baa – Average Moody’s Aaa band spreads. (1)
FARMER MAC (1) Source: Kansas City Federal Reserve, Ag Finance Databook & Farm Credit Funding Corp Annual Information Statements – Non-accrual real estate loans and accruing loans that are 90 days or more past due, include commercial and farm credit system banks; 2Q15 data not yet available. (2) Delinquencies include loans held and loans underlying off-balance sheet Farm & Ranch Guaranteed Securities and LTSPCs that are 90 days or more past due, in foreclosure, or in bankruptcy, excluding loans performing under either their original loan terms or a court-approved bankruptcy plan. Farmer Mac Credit vs. Industry 1.30% 1.20% 1.17% 0.75% 0.60% 0.52% 0.54% 0.95% 2.00% 2.40% 2.10% 1.67% 1.23% 0.96% 1.59% 1.21% 0.60% 0.55% 0.58% 0.41% 0.21% 1.35% 1.13% 1.63% 0.93% 0.70% 0.55% 0.35% 0.58% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 2Q15 90-Day Delinquencies Industry 90-Day Delinquencies Farmer Mac 90-Day Delinquencies (Farm & Ranch Portfolio Only)(1) FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 30 (2)
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac – Historical Credit Losses Farmer Mac’s Rural Utilities, USDA Guarantees and Institutional Credit lines of business have not had any credit losses to date Farm & Ranch line of business has historical cumulative losses of 0.16%, or less than 1bp per year • Cumulative losses of $31 million on $20 billion of cumulative historical business volume FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 31 -$2 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 1995 & Prior 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 N E T L OS S / ( GA IN ) $ I N M IL L IO N S BY YEAR OF ORIGINATION Ag Storage & Processing Crops Permanent Plantings Livestock Part-Time Farm / Rural Housing
FARMER MAC Funding Finance asset purchases with proceeds of debt issuances • 20+ dealers • Match-funding provides for stable net effective spread and immaterial interest rate risk Farmer Mac’s debt securities carry privileges for certain holders • 20% capital risk weighting • Eligible collateral for Fed advances • Legal investments for federally supervised financial institutions (banks, etc.) FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 32 Debt Securities Trade at Narrow Spreads to Comparable Maturity Treasuries MATURITY (YEARS) 1 3 5 10 SPREAD TO TREASURY (AS OF JUNE 30, 2015) 14 bps 21 bps 26 bps 62 bps
FARMER MAC Interest Rate Risk Match fund asset purchases with liabilities that have similar interest rate characteristics • Duration and convexity matching • Coupon type • Reset frequency Manage pre-payment risk on mortgages • Issue a portfolio of callable and bullet debt across spectrum of maturities to obtain the appropriate match • Can adjust effective asset and debt coupon and duration characteristics through the use of interest rate swaps or other derivatives Perform regular stress testing and disclose a variety of sensitivity measures • Duration Gap • Market Value of Equity (MVE) Sensitivity • Net Interest Income (NII) Sensitivity • Measure these sensitivities’ impact on various capital metrics FARMER MAC OVERVIEW 33
Farmer Mac Financial Performance
FARMER MAC Second Quarter 2015 Performance Net effective spread of 88 bps, compared to 86 bps last quarter • Increase mostly attributable to overall growth in Farmer Mac’s program business, especially growth in higher margin products Core earnings of $11.6 million ($1.02 per diluted common share), compared to $9.1 million ($0.80 per diluted common share) in first quarter 2015 • Elimination of preferred dividend payments due to redemption of outstanding Farmer Mac II Preferred Stock • Increase in after-tax net effective spread Total business volume of $15.1 billion, an increase of $470 million from March 31, 2015 • Purchased $307 million of AgVantage securities • Purchased $197 million of Farm & Ranch loans • Purchased $124 million of USDA Securities and Farmer Mac Guaranteed USDA Securities • Purchased $103 million of Farm & Ranch loans under LTSPCs Credit quality reflects the strength of the agricultural and rural utilities economies • 90-day delinquencies of $31.9 million (0.58% of Farm & Ranch loans), modestly down from $32.1 million (0.60% of Farm & Ranch loans) in first quarter 2015 • Farmer Mac’s total allowance for losses was 0.19% of the $5.5 billion dollar Farm & Ranch portfolio, as of June 30, 2015, compared to 0.18% as of March 31, 2015 • Average 90-day delinquency rate for the Farm & Ranch line of business over the last 15 years is approximately 1% 35 FARMER MAC FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
FARMER MAC $9.1 $11.7 $11.3 $11.0 $9.1 $10.0 $12.9 $16.5 $23.2 $11.6 $11.2 $13.4 $11.8 $9.3 $12.6 $11.6 $15.3 $9.5 $0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $ I N M IL L IO N S 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q $42.9 $49.6 $54.9 $53.0 $20.7 Core Earnings (Non-GAAP Measure) FARMER MAC FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 36 (1) For a reconciliation of GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders to core earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, please refer to page 45 of Appendix. (2) Core earnings for 2014 include the effects of the cash management and liquidity initiative implemented in the second quarter 2014, and the capital structure initiative under which Farmer Mac issued $150 million of preferred stock in advance of the planned March 30, 2015 redemption of all outstanding Farmer Mac II Preferred Stock and related Farm Asset-Linked Capital Securities (FALConS). Each of these initiatives have been described in Farmer Mac’s prior SEC filings, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, filed with the SEC on March 16, 2015. (2) (1)
FARMER MAC Business Volume FARMER MAC FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 37 $4.8 $5.2 $5.4 $5.3 $5.5 $5.6 $6.0 $6.4 $6.0 $6.8 $1.6 $1.7 $1.8 $1.7 $1.9 $1.0 $1.1 $1.0 $1.0 $0.9 $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 $14.0 $16.0 2012 2013 2014 2Q14 2Q15 $ I N B IL L IO N S Farm & Ranch Institutional Credit USDA Guarantees Rural Utilities $14.6 AS OF YEAR-END AS OF QUARTER-END (1) Includes on- and off-balance sheet outstanding business volume. $13.0 $14.0 $14.1 $15.1 (1)
FARMER MAC Net Effective Spread $98.8 $117.2 $116.6 $113.7 $59.0 1.06% 1.04% 0.96% 0.91% 0.87% 0.80% 0.85% 0.90% 0.95% 1.00% 1.05% 1.10% $0.0 $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 $80.0 $100.0 $120.0 $140.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15 YTD $ I N M IL L IO N S Net Effective Spread (dollars) Net Effective Spread (percent) FARMER MAC FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 38 AS OF YEAR-END
FARMER MAC Credit Quality – 90-Day Delinquencies FARMER MAC FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 39 $47.0 $33.9 $25.9 $31.9 1.07% 0.69% 0.49% 0.58% 0.38% 0.25% 0.18% 0.21% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% $0.0 $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 $ I N M IL L IO N S 90-Day Delinquencies (dollars) % of Farm & Ranch Portfolio Only % of Total Portfolio
FARMER MAC $519 $591 $766 $750 $553 $145 $192 $345 $318 $110 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 2012 2013 2014 2Q14 2Q15 E X C E S S S T A T U TO R Y C A P IT A L $ IN M IL L IO N S C O R E C A P IT A L $ I N M IL L IO N S Core Capital Excess Statutory Capital AS OF YEAR-END AS OF QUARTER-END Capital FARMER MAC FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 40 (1) Core capital defined as total stockholders’ equity less accumulated other comprehensive income. (2) Excess statutory capital defined as core capital less statutory minimum capital. (1) (2) $250m Redemption of Farmer Mac II Preferred Stock and related FALConS
Appendix
FARMER MAC Key Company Metrics APPENDIX 42 ($ in thousands, except per share amounts) 2Q15 YTD 2014 2013 2012 Core Earnings $20,720 $53,047 $54,892 $49,642 Core Earnings per Diluted Share $1.82 $4.67 $4.90 $4.51 Net Effective Spread ($) $59,044 $113,693 $116,582 $117,190 Net Effective Spread (%) 0.87% 0.91% 0.96% 1.04% Guarantee & Commitment Fees $8,097 $16,780 $16,591 $15,989 Excess Regulatory Capital $109,600 $345,000 $192,200 $145,000 Common Stock Dividends per Share $0.32 $0.56 $0.48 $0.40 Outstanding Business Volume $15,130,127 $14,597,758 $13,950,312 $13,015,188 90-Day Delinquencies – Farm & Ranch 0.58% 0.35% 0.55% 0.70% Charge-Offs $111 $86 $4,004 $2,501 Book Value per Share $31.58 $29.76 $26.68 $20.52 Core Earnings Return on Equity 12.3% 17% 22% 25% (1) Core earnings for 2014 include the effects of the cash management and liquidity initiative implemented in second quarter 2014 and the capital structure initiative under which Farmer Mac issued $150 million of preferred stock in advance of the planned March 30, 2015 redemption of all outstanding Farmer Mac II Preferred Stock and related FALConS. Each of these initiatives have been described in Farmer Mac’s prior SEC filings, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, filed with the SEC on March 16, 2015. (2) Book Value per Share excludes accumulated other comprehensive income. (1) (2)
FARMER MAC ($ in thousands) Jun-15 Mar-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Revenues: Net effective spread 29,787$ 29,257$ 28,443$ 29,765$ 29,049$ 26,436$ 30,022$ 28,693$ 28,891$ Guarantee and commitment fees 4,085 4,012 4,096 4,153 4,216 4,315 4,252 4,134 4,126 Other (24) (405) (1,285) (2,001) (520) (410) 427 (466) 3,274 Total revenues 33,848 32,864 31,254 31,917 32,745 30,341 34,701 32,361 36,291 Credit related expense/(income): Provision for/(release of) losses 1,256 (696) (479) (804) (2,557) 674 12 (36) (704) REO operating expenses - (1) 48 1 59 2 3 35 259 Losses/(gains) on sale of REO - 1 28 - (168) 3 (26) (39) (1,124) Total credit related expense/(income) 1,256 (696) (403) (803) (2,666) 679 (11) (40) (1,569) Operating expenses: Compensation and employee benefits 5,733 5,693 4,971 4,693 4,889 4,456 4,025 4,523 4,571 General and administrative 3,374 2,823 2,992 3,123 3,288 2,794 3,104 2,827 2,715 Regulatory fees 600 600 600 593 594 594 594 593 594 Total operating expenses 9,707 9,116 8,563 8,409 8,771 7,844 7,723 7,943 7,880 Net earnings 22,885 24,444 23,094 24,311 26,640 21,818 26,989 24,458 29,980 Income tax expense/(benefit) 8,091 6,692 4,858 6,327 (4,734) 4,334 5,279 6,263 7,007 Non-controlling interest (119) 5,354 5,414 5,412 5,819 5,547 5,546 5,547 5,547 Preferred stock dividends 3,296 3,295 3,296 3,283 2,308 952 882 881 881 Core earnings 11,617$ 9,103$ 9,526$ 9,289$ 23,247$ 10,985$ 15,282$ 11,767$ 16,545$ Core Earnings by Quarter Ended Farmer Mac’s Core Earnings History APPENDIX 43 (1) Core earnings is a non-GAAP measure. See page 44 of Appendix for reconciliation of GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders to core earnings. (1)
FARMER MAC Reconciliation of Net Income to Core Earnings APPENDIX 44 ($ in thousands) Jun-15 Mar-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Net income attributable to common stockholders 22,162$ 1,818$ 5,647$ 11,586$ 20,205$ 813$ 12,485$ 15,413$ 27,745$ Reconciling items (after-tax effects): Unrealized gains/(losses) on f inancial derivatives and hedging activities 10,388 (582) (3,717) 2,685 (3,053) (2,395) 8,003 4,632 11,021 Unrealized gains/(losses) on trading assets 110 236 679 (21) (46) 426 (50) (407) (212) Amortization of premiums/discounts and deferred gains on assets consolidated at fair value (81) (529) (811) (440) (179) (8,027) (10,864) (421) (564) Net effects of settlements on agency forw ards 128 (164) 30 73 236 (176) 114 (158) 955 Loss on retirement of Farmer Mac II LLC Preferred Stock - (6,246) - - - - - - - Core earnings 11,617$ 9,103$ 9,526$ 9,289$ 23,247$ 10,985$ 15,282$ 11,767$ 16,545$ Core Earnings by Quarter Ended (1) (1) The loss from retirement of the Farmer Mac II LLC Preferred Stock in first quarter 2015 has been excluded from core earnings because it is not a frequently occurring transaction and not indicative of future operating results. This is also consistent with Farmer Mac’s previous treatment of these types of origination costs associated with securities underwriting that are capitalized and deferred during the life of the security.
FARMER MAC Reconciliation of Net Income to Core Earnings APPENDIX 45 (in thousands) 2Q15 YTD 2014 2013 2012 2011 Net income attributable to common stockholders 23,980$ 38,251$ 71,833$ 43,894$ 13,784$ Less the after-tax effects of: Unrealized gains/(losses) on financial derivatives and hedging activities 9,806 (6,480) 29,368 4,325 (30,930) Unrealized gains/(losses) on trading assets 346 1,038 (533) 200 2,246 Amortization of premiums/discounts and deferred gains on assets consolidated at fair value (610) (9,457) (12,467) (7,266) (3,692) Net effects of settlements on agency forwards (36) 103 573 856 (2,523) Lower of cost or fair value adjustments on loans held for sale - - - (3,863) 5,776 Loss on retirement of Farmer Mac II LLC Preferred Stock (6,246) Core earnings 20,720$ 53,047$ 54,892$ 49,642$ 42,907$ Core Earnings by Period-Ended (1) (1) The loss from retirement of the Farmer Mac II LLC Preferred Stock in first quarter 2015 has been excluded from core earnings because it is not a frequently occurring transaction and not indicative of future operating results. This is also consistent with Farmer Mac’s previous treatment of these types of origination costs associated with securities underwriting that are capitalized and deferred during the life of the security.
FARMER MAC Farmer Mac’s Net Effective Spread History APPENDIX 46 ($ in thousands) Dollars Yield Dollars Yield Dollars Yield Dollars Yield Dollars Yield Dollars Yield For the quarter ended: June 30, 2015 9,681$ 1.82% 4,466$ 0.98% 2,838$ 1.18% 10,860$ 0.78% 1,942$ 0.25% 29,787$ 0.88% March 31, 2015 (2) 10,114 1.97% 4,225 0.95% 2,804 1.15% 10,425 0.77% 1,689 0.20% 29,257 0.86% December 31,2014 (3) 8,682 1.71% 5,250 1.19% 2,908 1.18% 9,871 0.78% 1,732 0.26% 28,443 0.91% September 30, 2014 8,207 1.68% 5,073 1.18% 2,890 1.16% 9,822 0.78% 3,773 0.59% 29,765 0.97% June 30, 2014 7,820 1.64% 4,159 0.99% 2,953 1.16% 9,957 0.78% 4,160 0.57% 29,049 0.92% March 31, 2014 (4) 7,114 1.53% 3,784 0.91% 1,990 0.73% 9,406 0.74% 4,142 0.56% 26,436 0.84% December 31, 2013 (4) 10,113 2.20% 4,022 0.97% 2,379 0.89% 9,088 0.72% 4,420 0.58% 30,022 0.94% September 30, 2013 7,980 1.86% 4,505 1.09% 2,974 1.12% 9,117 0.72% 4,117 0.57% 28,693 0.93% June 30, 2013 8,228 2.08% 4,508 1.12% 3,056 1.14% 8,805 0.71% 4,294 0.63% 28,891 0.97% (1) See Note 1(d) to the consolidated f inancial statements in Farmer Mac's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed w ith the SEC on August 10, 2015 for more information about the reclassif ication of certain amounts in prior periods from guarantee and commitment fees to interest income related to on-balance sheet Farmer Mac Guaranteed Securities. (2) Beginning in f irst quarter 2015, Farmer Mac revised it's methodology for interest expense allocation among Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, and Rural Utilities lines of business. As a result of this revision, a greater percentage of interest expense has been allocated to the longer term assets included w ithin the USDA Guarantees and Rural Utilities lines of business. Net effective spread for periods prior to the quarter ended March 31, 2015 does not reflect this revision. (3) On October 1, 2014, $78.5 million of preferred stock issued by CoBank w as called, resulting in a loss of net effective spread of $2.1 million or 30 basis points in the corporate segment. The impact on consolidated net effective spread on a quarterly basis is 7 basis points. (4) First quarter 2014 includes the impact of spread compression in Rural Utilities line of business from the early refinancing of loans (41 basis points). Fourth quarter 2013 includes the impact in net effective spread in the Farm & Ranch line of business of one-time adjustments for recovered buyout interest and yield maintenance (40 basis points in aggregate) and the impact of spread compression in the Rural Utilities line of business from the early refinancing of loans (26 basis points). Net Effective SpreadInstitutional Credit (1) Farm & Ranch USDA Guarantees Rural Utilities Corporate
FARMER MAC Liquidity – Investment Portfolio Farmer Mac maintains an investment portfolio to provide back-up source of liquidity in excess of regulatory requirements • Minimum of 90 days of liquidity required by regulation $3.5 billion investment portfolio at June 30 • Cash and highly-rated investment securities • Conservative portfolio goals − Minimize exposure to market volatility − Preservation of capital − Ready access to cash • Provided 187 days of liquidity as of June 30, 2015 Farmer Mac also has $1.5 billion line of credit with U.S. Treasury • Supports Farmer Mac’s guarantee obligations • Farmer Mac has never used this line of credit Cash & Equiv. 48% Guar. by GSEs and U.S. Gov't Agencies 49% Corporate Debt Securities 1% Asset- Backed Securities 2% Liquidity Portfolio APPENDIX 47
FARMER MAC Three Classes of Common Stock Number of Shares CLASS A VOTING COMMON STOCK • NYSE: AGM.A • Ownership restricted to non-Farm Credit System financial institutions 1.0 million CLASS B VOTING COMMON STOCK • Not publicly traded • Ownership restricted to Farm Credit System institutions 0.5 million CLASS C NON-VOTING COMMON STOCK • NYSE: AGM • No ownership restrictions 9.5 million APPENDIX 48
FARMER MAC Three Classes of Preferred Stock Number of Shares SERIES A NON-CUMULATIVE PREFERRED STOCK • NYSE: AGM.PR.A • Dividend Yield: 5.875%** • Option to redeem at any time on or after January 17, 2018 • Redemption Value: $25 per share 2.4 million SERIES B NON-CUMULATIVE PREFERRED STOCK • NYSE: AGM.PR.B • Dividend Yield: 6.875%** • Option to redeem at any time on or after April 17, 2019 • Redemption Value: $25 per share 3.0 million SERIES C FIXED-TO-FLOATING NON-CUMULATIVE PREFERRED STOCK • NYSE: AGM.PR.C • Dividend Yield: 6.000%** • Option to redeem at any time on or after July 18, 2024 • Redemption Value: $25 per share 3.0 million APPENDIX 49 **Par value annual dividend yield