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8-K - 8-K - RLI CORP | a13-22527_18k.htm |
Exhibit 99.1
Conference Call Transcript
RLI Corp. Earnings Conference Call 3rd Quarter 2013
October 17, 2013 // 10:00 am (CT)
PARTICIPANTS
Corporate Participants
Jonathan E. Michael Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Michael J. Stone President and Chief Operating Officer (RLI Insurance Company)
Aaron H. Jacoby Vice President, Corporate Development
Thomas L. Brown Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Other Participants
Name |
|
Affiliation |
|
|
|
Randy Binner |
|
FBR Capital Markets |
Adam Klauber |
|
William Blair & Company, L.L.C. |
Meyer Shields |
|
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods |
Ken Billingsley |
|
Compass Point Research & Trading LLC |
RLI CORP.
Moderator: Aaron Jacoby
October 17, 2013
10:00 a.m. (CT)
Operator: Good morning, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the RLI Corp. Third Quarter Earnings Conference. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded and that all participants are in a listen-only mode. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers after the presentation. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, RLI management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the companys various SEC filings, including in the Annual Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has filed a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing third quarter results.
RLI management may make reference during the call to operating earnings and earnings per share from operations, which are non-GAAP measures of financial results. RLIs operating earnings and earnings per share from operations consist of net earnings after the elimination of after-tax realized investment gains or losses. RLIs management believes that this measure is useful in gauging core operating performance across reporting periods, but may not be comparable to other companies definitions of operating earnings. The Form 8-K contains reconciliation between operating earnings and net earnings. The Form 8-K and press release are available at the companys website at www.rlicorp.com.
I will now turn the conference over to RLIs Vice President, Corporate Development, Mr. Aaron Jacoby. Please go ahead, sir.
Aaron H. Jacoby: Thank you. Good morning to everyone. Welcome to the RLI earnings call for the third quarter of 2013. Joining me on todays call are Jon Michael, Chairman and CEO; Mike Stone, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Tom Brown, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Im going to turn the call over to Tom first to get some brief opening comments on the quarters financial results. Then, Mike will talk about our operations and market conditions. Next well open the call to questions, and Jon will finish up with some closing comments. Tom?
Tom Brown: Thanks, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to announce that the trend of solid quarterly results continued through the current quarter. Starting with profitability, the combined ratio for the quarter was a very strong 80.5. Included in this result is $20 million of favorable development positively impacting the combined ratio by 12 points. Our casualty segment was the biggest driver with the benefit coming from more recent accident years, 2007 through 2012. So three quarters of the way through the year the combined ratio stands at a very attractive 83.3. Focusing our attention on premium growth, gross premium was up 3% over last year. Growth in net written premiums, which was up 7% in the quarter, continues to benefit from
our decision at the beginning of the year to buy less reinsurance as we keep more of our attractively priced casualty business.
Turning our attention to our three segments, first Casualty continues to lead the way with top line growth of 16%, driven by new product initiatives as well as certain products achieving both rate and exposure growth. The impact of both increased prices, as well as improved loss experience, led to a decrease in our Casualty booking ratio. Combined with the impact of favorable reserve development, Casualty recorded a very nice 75 combined ratio.
Overall, our Property segment reflected declining premium of 15% consistent with our history of underwriting discipline we pulled back in certain lines such as marine and assumed reinsurance. We posted an 88 combined ratio as a result of a lack of catastrophes and favorable reserve development on previous years.
Meanwhile, the Surety segment continued its steady contribution to underwriting profit, turning in an 83 combined ratio. Premium was down slightly at 3%, which is relatively in line compared to recent quarters of being up or down a few points. Competitive forces in particular hamper growth in this generally high-margin space.
Turning to investments, there were a few positive trends during the quarter. While investment income was down 4% compared to the third quarter of 2012, it was modest by comparison to some of the double-digit declines that weve been experiencing as the investment portfolio turned over in the previously falling interest rate environment. From a total return standpoint, the fixed income portfolio posted a positive 0.9% return in the quarter as interest rates generally stabilized and our equity portfolio had a good quarter, up 3%.
Lastly, our equity investment in Maui Jim continued to add favorably to earnings, contributing 38% earnings growth over last year and 20% on a year-to-date basis.
To sum it up, the combination of underwriting and investment results drove operating earnings per share of $1.40 per share, up 40% from $1.02 per share last year. In summary, a positive quarter and first three quarters of 2013. I will now turn over to the discussion over to Mike Stone.
Mike Stone: Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everybody. An excellent underwriting quarter, 80 combined ratio by any standard, and we have rigorous standards here at RLI. First to talk a little bit about the segments.
Casualty fairly salubrious environment, gross written premium up some 15% for the quarter and 19% for the year, a combined ratio of 75 for the quarter. Rates continued modest improvement from flat to up plus 15% with professional liability, EPG, which is our D&O, basically flat with commercial umbrella up some 15% and GL and transportation in the middle, 5% to 10%. Weve taken some underwriting action on some of our GL book over the past 24 months and were starting to see a positive impact from that. New products continue to provide a nice uplift with medical malpractice providing some $12 million worth of premium year-to-date and $3.5 million in the quarter and security guards at roughly $2 million year-to-date and some $700,000 for the quarter.
Transportation was up some 60% in the quarter with rates up from 7% to 10%. As we continue to benefit from the disarray in this space and our continued, over the past 10-plus years, of underwriting discipline. Professional liability, thats basically our non-medical malpractice, continues to grow both in the professional space and in the package space. Its our professional and package business with professional contributing some $14 million worth of premium in the quarter and $39 million year-to-date, up some 42% for the year and 32% for the quarter as we continue to grow out that business. Package is providing some $28 million for the year and $9 million for the quarter as we continue to build out both our professional and package business and expect to continue to grow out these businesses, which should provide more steady, less volatile balance to our surplus lines of business, so a very positive casualty environment.
Property environment less salutary than casualty, with some impending developments that could have a more pernicious impact on 1/1. So we have much alternative capital coming into the space. Reinsurance rates are projected to be down, which is both good and bad as that will put pressure on our direct property rates. RMS 11, lack of CAT events, and as we continued to re-underwrite several of our products, our gross written premium in the quarter was down 15% and down 2% year-to-date.
We continue to work on our habitational property, our reinsurance business, our assumed reinsurance business and our marine business. We have worked very hard on marine, but we think were starting to get it right. But were not showing the improvement quite yet. Also the Crop space, less premium than expected due to fewer re-plants. I wont go into any more detail on that as I have in past quarters, but we would expect Crop to produce a small profit this year after a very difficult 2013. We did introduce a recreational vehicle product late last year that has produced some $8 million worth of gross written premium, somewhat offsetting the underwriting actions that I referred to earlier.
Surety difficult competitive environment. It seems like we see a new competitor every month, every other month. By the way, we welcome the competition. And Ill reiterate that it aint as easy as you might think. We have skilled professional, experienced underwriters at the helm of each one of our segments in surety, at each functional area, and we will do what is necessary to continue to outperform in this space over time. Well still be working away as some of these new entrants fall by the wayside.
Our gross written premium was down some 3% in the quarter, flat year-to-date. Oil and gas in commercial were off some 10% with contract and miscellaneous up a little bit less than 5%. Combined ratio of 83, very, very well underwritten book of business, and 83 combined ratio, a little off from last year but still excellent results in a very competitive environment.
Overall, a very good quarter, as we continue to develop new product initiatives and manage our existing products to produce industry-leading results. Thank you. With that I will turn it back to Aaron.
Aaron Jacoby: Great, thanks Mike. We can now open the call up for any questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Randy Binner with FBR. Please go ahead.
Randy Binner: Hey, thank you. Just a couple quick ones. I guess, first, on the booking ratio or kind of the current quarter loss picture, Casualty, I appreciate all the comments from Mike on how well Casualty seems to be going. But hoping to get a little more granularity on kind of whats going on there because its that would be a low level of booking ratio to model going forward and so just trying to understand kind of what led to that being so favorable this quarter?
Mike Stone: This is Mike Stone. Ill give you a little bit of color there. So our part of our GL book thats been a high loss ratio performer, we have reduced from some 50% of our book to some 30% of our book. And some it was from some 25% of our overall Casualty premium down to 17%. And our lower loss ratio businesses, the packages, the professional liability and the medical professional liability, was increased as an overall portion of our book of business from 20% up to 25% year-over-year. So I think when you look at the increase in the lower loss ratio business and the decrease in the higher loss ratio business within that segment, thats how we get to a lower overall booking ratio.
Randy Binner: Okay. So business mix, its kind of better business, and thats I guess Ive got two follow-ups. One, that habitational risk would be in the poor loss ratio category, is that right?
Mike Stone: Correct. And youre right, the answer usually is mix.
Randy Binner: Can you hold the line on kind of keeping that mix going forward?
Mike Stone: Well, its like anything else. Were going to see where we think the opportunities are. But certainly were very committed to managing very carefully the habitational side of that GL book. Were going to continue to grow our package and professional liability business. So I would suspect, unless rates really improve on the surplus lines of business that will continue to be a little bit bigger part of our overall casualty book of business as time goes forward.
So I think, yes, well be able to hold the line on the bad performing GL business as we I think weve demonstrated were willing to shrink, if necessary. And we think weve taken pretty aggressive action on that over the past 24 months. Were starting to see some improvement there, but thats never going to be easy business. So we have to get more rate if were going to write more of that.
Randy Binner: Thank you. Just another quick one on Property. Was there, I mean, obviously, there is that was a big move, and again I get the comments on the underwriting discipline there. But was there, in that move down in the premiums this quarter, was that one big case? Was there anything kind of unusual or one-time-ish that you would characterize in this quarter versus what we might expect going forward?
Tom Brown: Randy, its Tom Brown. Are you talking about the decline in the gross premium or are you talking about the loss ratio?
Randy Binner: Sorry if I wasnt clear. I mean the decrease in the top-line, the gross and net written premium in property was significant. Just wondering if like a large case or something kind of lumpy, what you passed on to see that big a decrease?
Mike Stone: Randy, a couple things. First, Crop is flat this year. It was up last year. Assumed reinsurance is down. Marine is down a bit. So, when you look at those three things, that takes into account most of that decrease.
Randy Binner: Okay. Got it.
Mike Stone: Were also starting to see rates, while theyve held up reasonably well up to now, but I can assure you they are starting to trend downward.
Randy Binner: Okay, thats perfect. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Well take our next question from Adam Klauber with William Blair. Please go ahead.
Adam Klauber: Good morning, everyone. Couple different questions. On the Casualty business, for sort of the core E&S general liability, umbrella-type business, I know the first six months the flow from just the flow of submissions has been pretty good overall in the E&S market. Is that continuing in the third quarter or did you see it sort of plateau a bit?
Mike Stone: No, its continuing Adam. We are still seeing increased submissions, probably not as significant as we saw earlier in the year, but its still north of where it was last year.
Adam Klauber: Okay, okay. You know, on the transportation market, that market seems like its still, I guess evolving is a good way to put it. Are you seeing a lot of opportunities or does that market just need a lot more rate before you can grow a lot more there?
Mike Stone: Well, I think the answer to your question to both of your questions is yes. We are seeing more opportunities. And yes, a lot of the opportunities we see need significantly more rate. I mean, for example, just like this is anecdotal but its interesting. So we get a piece of business that has been with the market thats under a bit of pressure submitted to us. And the broker says, well, we could accept a 50% rate increase. And our guy says we cant do it for anything less than 300% rate increase. Weve got to be careful about people saying they are getting rate increases. You know, 25% rate increase sounds like a lot, but if you need 300% its certainly not enough. We have experienced that in some of our habitational business.
We are a very disciplined transportation market, so when you see other companies in disarray and the ones that are talking about getting 25% and 30% rate increase, were not likely to see that kind of improvement but youre also not going to see us decreasing rates. Youll see us lose business. And as the market comes back to us, which it is, were not getting great rate increases, but were getting much more opportunities and were going to be able to get enough rate to make a reasonable return in that space.
Adam Klauber: Okay. So hearing that is ultimately the issue that were seeing in the market, and again, we see it from the outside. Is it really more a matter of pure rate or are loss trends loss trends being relatively negative also?
Mike Stone: Loss trends are fairly benign. Its not the loss trend, its rate...
Adam Klauber: Its the rate.
Mike Stone: The transportation particularly in transportation space, rates were driven down over the last three or four years. You know the markets better than I do, and you cant hide forever. As our guy likes to say, how can they do it? He says they cant. So its just a matter of time.
Adam Klauber: Right, right. So I assume the habitational market is somewhat similar? Thats a market that could probably just use a lot more rate, if you see that rate theres probably more potential for you. Is that a fair statement?
Mike Stone: Thats fair, I think, Adam. What you see is big premium items attract a lot of attention and a lot of markets that seem like they and again, we seem to trade these habitational accounts around and we think sometimes when were getting a 25% rate increase thats great, but really its probably not. So weve raised we try to get a 100% rate increase. Somebody comes in and takes it away from us for 30% or 40% and they think theyre doing great. Well, guess what? They will be back looking for more and wishing they hadnt underwritten it. So thats just tough business, so we need more rate overall.
Adam Klauber: Okay. Just a couple technical numbers questions. The reserve release that I think you said, they really came from 07 through 12 years. Particularly on the Casualty, could you give us a hint were they more 07, 08, 09 or more 2010 through 2012 or pretty even across those years?
Tom Brown: Adam, its Tom Brown. Its fairly even, you might say theres a little bit of a bump in what was it, I think 09.
Adam Klauber: Okay. Okay. And then also on the accident year and Casualty, which Randy was talking about, was some of that the low accident year, a reflection of whats happened over the first nine months, or is it more of a reflection purely for this quarter?
Tom Brown: Randy Adam, its Tom. It really is mix, coupled with we do a pretty extensive reserve analysis with six months of data for the first half. And then obviously you see you pick up some of that trend that you see in the first six months that gets reflective of the full nine-month results.
Adam Klauber: Okay. Then finally on capital deployment, the market looks like it could be a tale of two cities right now with casualty, a lot of opportunities. Property look like its going to be a tough market. Are you going to keep your, I guess, the same view weve seen in the last couple of years that, if you have a fair amount of excess coming into the year, you look at the opportunities, a lot of that excess could go toward the special dividend?
Jon Michael: Yeah. Its Jon. We will continue to deploy capital the way that we have in the past. We are aggressively looking for opportunities in the marketplace and our first choice is to deploy the capital in our own business. If we have excess capital, well give it back to the shareholders.
Adam Klauber: Great, thank you very much.
Operator: [Operator Instructions]. Well move next to Meyer Shields with KBW. Please go ahead.
Meyer Shields: Thanks, good morning. If I can go back to the Casualty segment very briefly, is there a change in the tail of the lines of business that are now representing a higher percentage of what youre writing?
Tom Brown: Meyer, its Tom Brown. I dont know if we see a distinct use of the tail. I dont think we are seeing a real change in the tail. We talked a little bit about the habitational, that there was some mix. But I dont think its discernible in the numbers.
Mike Stone: So the only thing this is Mike Stone again. The only thing I would add to that is transportation has become a bigger part and thats a fairly shorter tail. But relatively, its not a its a little bit more. Habitational can be short.
Meyer Shields: Okay. On transportation, I guess in the second quarter there was some caution that maybe things were going to start softening up after two quarters. Is it fair to infer that that actually didnt happen?
Mike Stone: Meyer, Im sorry, I dont think we heard the first part of your question.
Meyer Shields: Im sorry. In the second quarter I think you quoted the transportation VP who said that maybe after two quarters the transportation market was probably going to start softening again. But with the growth in the third quarter Im assuming that thats actually not the case?
Mike Stone: Yeah, Meyer, its Mike Stone. You know, Im not always right. And thats one of the times Im glad I got it wrong. Again, our transportation leader is a fairly conservative guy; some might say a bit pessimistic, which is probably why hes pretty successful in that space. He sees competition coming from every angle. And its the market has held up from our perspective better than we anticipated. Some of that, I think, was some of the disarrays I described from a in a number of competitors over the past few quarters that I dont think we anticipated all that.
So its a tougher business than people sometime thinks it is. So hopefully it will continue, but he was just in here this week. We were talking about the business, and he is continues to be not the most optimistic guy in the world. But he still is his submission if you look at his submission activity, its up considerably. And in public, which is buses, truck, long-haul trucking and its commercial auto. Its up in all three areas. So that bodes well.
Meyer Shields: Okay. Thats good to hear. And two quick questions on the $150 million of senior notes. One, are you waiting till January to pay down $100 million? Thats just a short term
modeling question. And can you sort of share your expectations of what youre going to do with that extra $50 million?
Tom Brown: Meyer, its Tom Brown. I think, right youve raised a good question with respect to the pay down of $100 million. We are we just finished the capital raise of $150 million early October here and were evaluating, what we just run it out to maturity in January of 2014 or pay it off earlier. But it really doesnt make a big too much of a difference when you get that close to the maturity date.
With respect to the other $50 million, Ill start you may have or Jon may want to add a comment or two. We took an it was an attractive rate. We took advantage of it, raised a little more, gets us back to really historic norms in debt to capital ratio in the mid-teens. We felt good about that. It locks it in for an extended period. And with the environment were in and constantly looking at opportunities, we wanted to maintain some capital.
Meyer Shields: Thanks so much.
Operator: Thank you. Well take our next question from Ken Billingsley with Compass Point. Please go ahead.
Ken Billingsley: Hi, good morning. Just wanted to follow-up on just kind of when youre talking about rates in the competition. With the competition, how much is it a change between rates involving the policy forms themselves? Are you seeing people loosening up terms and conditions to get business?
Mike Stone: Ken, this is Mike. Not by and large Ken. I think at this stage were not seeing too much degradation in terms and conditions, which is a good thing. We see some of it in the Surety side, where the companies are not requiring personal indemnity or not requiring some form of collateral that they were requiring before. So were seeing that in Surety. And like, Ill just repeat what I said. Surety is not as easy as somebody might think it is. And if you start lessening your terms and conditions in that space, and remember, the loss ratio margins are pretty small, if you because the expense ratio is quite high. And so Id say in that space were certainly seeing it. And the rest of them, I think that Property, the deductible, the terms and conditions are staying fairly firm. And youre going to see a little on the edges, but nothing really bad yet. And Casualty is pretty good.
Ken Billingsley: The other question I have, just on rates is this is very recent inflection point where the brokers comments on where rates are going are differing from maybe whats coming from the underwriters? And you are one of the first ones to be able to comment on that. Do you see that theres still going to be a difference between what the brokers are saying they are seeing and what you guys are reporting from a...
Mike Stone: Yes.
Ken Billingsley: And can you talk about maybe whats likely driving that difference?
Mike Stone: Well, I mean I think they obviously, they have a different audience that they are speaking to. They have got in some instances much broader markets, people that are willing to do certain things. But Ive heard those remarks as well. Ive been on panels with those people as well. And all I can tell you is what we are seeing. And certainly, if you want to we can all talk about a one-off deal. I mean, we wouldnt write any business if we were always the highest, right? So theres going to be a different I hate to call it spin but theres going to be a different view on direction. And you know they are out fighting for business too, so we just have different views of things.
Ken Billingsley: So would you say that, at least at this point, even the competition you are seeing from other underwriters doesnt necessarily reflect the commentary coming from brokers regarding pricing?
Mike Stone: Ken, Im not going to interpret what other carriers are doing.
Ken Billingsley: Okay, thats fair.
Mike Stone: Good try, though.
Ken Billingsley: Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator: Thank you. And it appears we have no further questions. I will now turn the conference back to Mr. Jonathan Michael for closing remarks.
Jon Michael: Thanks again for joining us. Another good quarter, operating earnings per share of $1.40. Were up 40% over last years third quarter on a combined ratio of 80; our year-to-date combined is about 83. And thanks to those of you who participated in our debt offering this past month. We think it was very successful and well look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Thanks. Bye.
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