PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ - FORM 8-K - EX-99

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8-K - 8-K - PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/	d395937d8k.htm

Exhibit 99

NEWS

RELEASE


The Progressive Corporation		Company Contact:
6300 Wilson Mills Road		Matt Downing
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143		(440) 395-4222
http://www.progressive.com

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS JULY RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO — August 15, 2012 — The Progressive Corporation today reported the following results for July 2012:


	July		July			Change
(millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited)	2012		2011
Net premiums written	$	1,648.0	$	1,496.1			10	%
Net premiums earned	$	1,554.4	$	1,437.8			8	%
Net income	$	59.0	$	51.1			15	%
Per share	$	.10	$	.08			21	%
Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities (including net impairment losses)	$	16.9	$	(16.5	)		NM
Combined ratio		96.9		95.4			1.5 pts.
Average diluted equivalent shares		608.2		638.5			(5	)%

NM = Not Meaningful


	July		July		Change
(thousands; unaudited)	2012		2011
Policies in Force:
Agency – auto		4,872.4		4,607.7		6	%
Direct – auto		4,029.8		3,784.8		6	%

Total personal auto		8,902.2		8,392.5		6	%
Total special lines		3,996.6		3,831.9		4	%

Total Personal Lines		12,898.8		12,224.4		6	%

Total Commercial Auto		526.4		513.0		3	%

Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Auto business writes primary liability, physical damage, and other auto-related insurance for autos and trucks owned by small businesses.

See the “Comprehensive Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and the “Monthly Commentary” at the end of this release for additional discussion.

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENT

July 2012

(millions)

(unaudited)


	Current Month	Comments on Monthly Results¹
Net premiums written	$1,648.0

Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$1,554.4
Investment income	34.1
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) losses:
Total OTTI losses	0
Non-credit losses, net of credit losses recognized on previously recorded non-credit OTTI losses	0

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings	0
Net realized gains (losses) on securities	16.9

Total net realized gains (losses) on securities	16.9
Service revenues	3.8

Total revenues	1,609.2

Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses	1,196.4
Policy acquisition costs	137.9
Other underwriting expenses	172.6
Investment expenses	1.1
Service expenses	3.4
Interest expense	10.2

Total expenses	1,521.6

Income before income taxes	87.6
Provision for income taxes	28.6

Net income	59.0

Other comprehensive income, net of tax:
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:
Net non-credit related OTTI losses, adjusted for valuation changes	.7
Other net unrealized gains (losses) on securities	60.2

Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities	60.9
Net unrealized gains on forecasted transactions	(.1)
Foreign currency translation adjustment	.3

Other comprehensive income	61.1

Total comprehensive income	$ 120.1

See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion. For a description of our reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2011 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2011 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS

July 2012 Year-to-Date

(millions)

(unaudited)


	Year-to-Date
	2012			2011			% Change
Net premiums written	$	9,939.6		$	9,233.1			8

Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$	9,412.0		$	8,823.0			7
Investment income		261.3			281.9			(7	)
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) losses:
Total OTTI losses		(5.6	)		(4.5	)		24
Non-credit losses, net of credit losses recognized on previously recorded non-credit OTTI losses¹		(.7	)		.9			NM

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings		(6.3	)		(3.6	)		75
Net realized gains (losses) on securities		96.0			112.8			(15	)

Total net realized gains (losses) on securities		89.7			109.2			(18	)
Service revenues		22.2			13.5			64
Gains (losses) on extinguishment of debt		(1.7	)		0			NM

Total revenues		9,783.5			9,227.6			6

Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		7,002.5			6,234.1			12
Policy acquisition costs		862.0			829.1			4
Other underwriting expenses		1,176.2			1,093.8			8
Investment expenses		9.1			7.7			18
Service expenses		21.5			10.7			101
Interest expense		72.8			73.5			(1	)

Total expenses		9,144.1			8,248.9			11

Income before income taxes		639.4			978.7			(35	)
Provision for income taxes		204.2			319.5			(36	)

Net income		435.2			659.2			(34	)

Other comprehensive income, net of tax:
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:
Net non-credit related OTTI losses, adjusted for valuation changes		3.8			(3.8	)		NM
Other net unrealized gains (losses) on securities		208.6			90.7			130

Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities		212.4			86.9			144
Net unrealized gains on forecasted transactions		(1.3	)		(1.9	)		(32	)
Foreign currency translation adjustment		.2			.7			(71	)

Other comprehensive income		211.3			85.7			147

Total comprehensive income	$	646.5		$	744.9			(13	)

NM = Not Meaningful

¹	A negative amount for the period reflects credit losses reclassified from other comprehensive income that exceeded the amount of non-credit OTTI losses recognized in other comprehensive income during the period.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPUTATION OF NET INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PER SHARE

INVESTMENT RESULTS

July 2012

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)

The following table sets forth the computation of net income per share and comprehensive income per share:


	Current		Year-to-Date
	Month		2012		2011
Net income	$	59.0	$	435.2	$	659.2

Per share:
Basic	$	.10	$	.72	$	1.02
Diluted	$	.10	$	.71	$	1.01
Comprehensive income	$	120.1	$	646.5	$	744.9

Per share:
Diluted	$	.20	$	1.06	$	1.15
Average shares outstanding - Basic		603.6		605.2		645.5
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		4.6		4.2		4.3

Total equivalent shares - Diluted		608.2		609.4		649.8

The following table sets forth the investment results for the period:


	Current			Year-to-Date
	Month			2012			2011
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
Fixed-income securities		.8	%		3.6	%		3.5	%
Common stocks		1.4	%		10.6	%		4.6	%
Total portfolio		.9	%		4.5	%		3.5	%
Pretax annualized investment income book yield		2.7	%		3.0	%		3.3	%

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

July 2012

($ in millions)

(unaudited)


	Current Month
	Personal Lines Business									Commercial Auto			Other		Companywide
	Personal Lines Business									Commercial Auto			Other		Companywide
	Agency			Direct			Total			Business			Businesses¹		Total
Net Premiums Written	$	822.5		$	650.8		$	1,473.3		$	174.7		$	0	$	1,648.0
% Growth in NPW		8	%		10	%		9	%		21	%		NM		10	%
Net Premiums Earned	$	785.5		$	607.1		$	1,392.6		$	161.7		$	0.1	$	1,554.4
% Growth in NPE		7	%		8	%		7	%		14	%		NM		8	%

GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		79.3			73.5			76.8			78.3			NM		77.0
Expense ratio		19.9			19.7			19.8			21.2			NM		19.9

Combined ratio		99.2			93.2			96.6			99.5			NM		96.9

Actuarial Adjustments²
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years															$	1.4
Current accident year																(5.2	)

Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	(8.1	)	$	6.1		$	(2.0	)	$	(1.8	)	$	0	$	(3.8	)

Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment															$	1.4
All other development																6.9

Total development															$	8.3

Calendar year loss/LAE ratio																77.0

Accident year loss/LAE ratio																77.5

Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio																77.0
Expense ratio																19.3

Combined ratio																96.3

¹	The other businesses generated an underwriting loss of $0.3 million for the month. Combined ratios and % growth are not meaningful (NM) due to the low level of premiums earned by, and the variability of loss costs in, such businesses.

²	Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

July 2012 Year-to-Date

($ in millions)

(unaudited)


Year-to-Date
										Commercial
	Personal Lines Business									Auto			Other			Companywide
	Agency			Direct			Total			Business			Businesses¹			Total
Net Premiums Written	$	4,996.4		$	3,868.5		$	8,864.9		$	1,074.7		$	0		$	9,939.6
% Growth in NPW		6	%		8	%		7	%		15	%		NM			8	%
Net Premiums Earned	$	4,770.1		$	3,684.5		$	8,454.6		$	956.6		$	0.8		$	9,412.0
% Growth in NPE		5	%		7	%		6	%		11	%		NM			7	%

GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		75.3			73.8			74.6			71.8			NM			74.4
Expense ratio		20.7			22.7			21.6			22.5			NM			21.7

Combined ratio		96.0			96.5			96.2			94.3			NM			96.1

Actuarial Adjustments²
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years																$	36.2
Current accident year																	(8.4	)

Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	1.6		$	19.1		$	20.7		$	7.3		$	(.2	)	$	27.8

Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment																$	36.2
All other development																	(95.0	)

Total development																$	(58.8	)

Calendar year loss/LAE ratio																	74.4

Accident year loss/LAE ratio																	73.8

Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio																	74.4
Expense ratio																	21.0

Combined ratio																	95.4

Statutory Surplus																$	5,884.6

NM = Not Meaningful

¹	Year to date, the other businesses generated an underwriting loss of $2.9 million.

²	Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)


	July 2012
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:
Investments – Available-for-sale, at fair value:
Fixed maturities¹(amortized cost: $11,662.6)	$	12,066.0
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks¹(cost: $412.3)		808.4
Common equities (cost: $1,491.1)		2,074.7
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $2,019.0)		2,019.0

Total investments^{2, 3}		16,968.1
Net premiums receivable		3,257.7
Deferred acquisition costs		458.6
Other assets⁴		2,392.2

Total assets	$	23,076.6


Unearned premiums	$	5,109.8
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves⁴		7,664.8
Other liabilities³		1,870.9
Debt		2,062.9
Shareholders’ equity		6,368.2

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$	23,076.6


Common shares outstanding		606.9
Shares repurchased – July		2.3
Average cost per share	$	19.85
Book value per share	$	10.49
Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders’ equity
Net income		13.0	%
Comprehensive income		13.5	%
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on investments	$	1,377.2
Increase (decrease) from June 2012	$	93.7
Increase (decrease) from December 2011	$	326.7
Debt-to-total capital ratio		24.5	%
Fixed-income portfolio duration		1.9 years
Weighted average credit quality		AA-
Year-to-date Gainshare factor		1.29

¹	As of July 31, 2012, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $5.9 million as a realized gain during the period we held these securities.

²	Includes $5.2 billion of short-term investments and U.S. Treasury securities prior to settling $48.2 million of net security transactions outstanding as of month-end.

³	Includes $48.2 million of net unsettled security transactions (as discussed in note 2 above).

⁴	Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $829.2 million, which are included in “other assets.”

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Monthly Commentary

•

During July, the company incurred approximately $28 million, or 1.8 loss ratio points, of catastrophe losses, which is slightly higher than the $23 million (1.6 points) incurred in July 2011. Ohio accounted for about 40% of the incurred catastrophe losses for the month with Virginia, Minnesota, Texas, Colorado, and Pennsylvania comprising an additional 25%. On a year-to-date basis, we have incurred about $151 million, or 1.6 points, of catastrophe losses, compared to $158 million, or 1.8 points, last year.

Events

We are currently scheduled to release August results on Thursday, September 13, 2012, before the market opens.

About Progressive

Celebrating its 75^th anniversary in 2012, The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies makes it easy to understand, buy, and use auto insurance. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach it whenever, wherever, and however it’s most convenient—online at http://www.progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, or in-person with a local agent.

Progressive offers insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes. It’s the fourth largest auto insurer in the country, the largest seller of motorcycle insurance, and a leader in commercial auto insurance. Progressive also offers car insurance online in Australia at http://www.progressiveonline.com.au.

Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price^®, the Snapshot Discount^®, and a concierge level of claims service.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE:PGR.

Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this release that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions, and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the possible failure of one or more governmental entities to make scheduled debt payments or satisfy other obligations; the potential or actual downgrading of governmental, corporate, or other securities by a rating agency; the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios and other companies with which we have ongoing business relationships, including counterparties to certain financial transactions; the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments, including, but not limited to, health care reform and tax law changes; disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against us; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail, and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems), and business functions; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.

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PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ - FORM 8-K - EX-99 - August 15, 2012

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