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8-K - XL GROUP LTD | c69992_8-k.htm |
Exhibit 99.1
XL GROUP PLC
MORGAN STANLEY US FINANCIALS CONFERENCE
Peter Porrino
Chief Financial Officer
June 13, 2012
1
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking
Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about XLs beliefs, plans or expectations, are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and expectations, all of which involve risk and uncertainty. Statements that include the words expect, intend, plan, believe, project, anticipate, will, may or similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those included in such forward-looking statements and therefore you should not place undue reliance on them. A non-exclusive list of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements includes (a) changes in the size of XLs claims relating to natural or man-made catastrophe losses due to the preliminary nature of some reports and estimates of loss and damage to date; (b) trends in rates for property and casualty insurance and reinsurance; (c) the timely and full recoverability of reinsurance placed by XL with third parties, or other amounts due to XL; (d) changes in ratings, rating agency policies or practices; (e) changes in the projected amount of ceded reinsurance recoverables; (f) XLs ability to successfully implement its business strategy especially during a soft market cycle; (g) greater frequency or severity of claims and loss activity than XLs underwriting, reserving or investment practices anticipate based on historical experience or industry data; (h) changes in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation and changes in interest rates, credit spreads, foreign currency exchange rates and future volatility in the worlds credit, financial and capital markets that adversely affect the performance and valuation of XLs investments or access to such markets; (i) developments, including uncertainties related to the ability of Euro-zone countries to service existing debt obligations and the strength of the Euro as a currency and to the financial condition of counterparties, reinsurers and other companies that are at risk of bankruptcy; (j) the impact of downgrades of U.S. securities by credit rating agencies or the European sovereign debt crisis, and the resulting effect on the value of securities (x) in our investment portfolio and (y) posted as collateral by and to us; (k) the potential for changes to methodologies, estimations and assumptions that underlie the valuation of XLs financial instruments that could result in changes to investment valuations; (l) changes to XLs assessment as to whether it is more likely than not that it will be required to sell, or has the intent to sell, available-for-sale debt securities before their anticipated recovery; (m) the ability of XLs subsidiaries to pay dividends to XL Group plc and XLIT Ltd.; (n) the potential effect of regulatory developments in the jurisdictions in which XL operates, including those that could impact the financial markets or increase XLs business costs and required capital levels; (o) changes in applicable tax laws, tax treaties or tax regulations or the interpretation or enforcement thereof; and (p) the other factors set forth in XLs reports on Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other documents on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. XL undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
2
Financial highlights
Commitment to margin expansion
Global Loss Triangles and prudent reserving
Mitigation of European uncertainty
Q&A
Todays Topics
3
Financial Highlights
For the three months
ended March 31, 2012
$MM, except per share data
Unaudited
Basic book value per share(7) increased by 4% in Q1 2012
Bought back 4.7 million ordinary shares for $100MM during Q1 2012
See slide 13 for applicable footnotes
4
Q1 2012
Q1 2011
(5)
Change
(6)
P&C Operations:
Gross Premiums Written
$2,317
$2,099
10.4%
Net Premiums Written
$1,963
$1,714
14.5%
Net Premiums Earned
$1,358
$1,272
6.8%
Loss Ratio
62.9%
95.1%
(32.2) pts
Combined Ratio
95.3%
125.8%
(30.5) pts
Underwriting Profit (Loss)
$63
($328)
N/M
Net Investment Income (P&C)
$190
$203
(6.4%)
Operating Net Income (loss)
(1)
$165
($163)
N/M
Net Income (loss) to Ordinary Shareholders
$177
($227)
N/M
Operating EPS
- Fully Diluted
(2)
$0.52
($0.52)
N/M
EPS - Fully Diluted
(2)
$0.56
($0.73)
N/M
Annualized Operating ROE
(3) (4)
6.9%
(6.9%)
13.8 pts
Annualized ROE
(4)
7.4%
(9.6%)
17.0 pts
Margin Expansion
5
Loss ratio = left scale
Net premiums Earned (US$ MM) = right scale
Insurance loss ratio
trend (ex CAT and
PYD) has shown
improvement over
past 5 quarters
810
830
850
870
890
910
930
950
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
Loss ratio
NPE
Prudent Reserving Policy Remains an XL Cornerstone
Redundancy estimates by industry analysts
Bubble size = midpoint of analysts
estimated US$ redundancy
Arrow = year over year trend in redundancy
Green = GLT published for 2011 data
Red = GLT published for 2010 data
Redundancy as % of net premiums earned
Source: Industry analyst reports
Analyst comparison versus
peers that have published
global loss triangles for
2010 or 2011
Positive year-over-year
trend for XL
Flat or up slightly for most
others
Down for one
6
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Mitigating Eurozone Exposures
A review of the likely currency of settlement in the event of a full Euro break-up shows that XL is overweight a number of core countries (i.e. Netherlands and Germany), underweight a number of peripheral countries (i.e. Ireland, Spain and Italy) and broadly flat the others
XLs policy is to match assets and liabilities by currency so that if Euro assets lose value in US$ terms, we would see an offsetting reduction in liability values
In addition, we hedge out the majority of the FX risk arising from holding capital in Euro
As of March 31, 2012 we were long $17 million equivalent of Euro on a net basis
The main underweight position is in Ireland, which is driven by the Life reinsurance book
We have liabilities to Irish cedents where the assets have been invested in non-Irish assets
Other underweight positions (i.e. Spain and Italy) are driven by local P&C insurance reserves that are backed by assets issued by Eurozone core countries
7
Notes:
(1)
Country of Risk is defined as the country of the issuers main operations
(2)
Eurozone Core includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and Netherlands
(3)
Non-Eurozone Europe includes Supranational, Swiss and other Europe issuers
(4)
GIIPS includes Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain
(5)
Structured Credit includes Covered bonds and Pfandbriefe holdings
(6)
Note that $2,784MM of the $5,373MM total exposure is Euro currency denominated
Exposure by Continental European Country of Risk
(US Dollar equivalent, $MM)
(As of May 31, 2012)
8
Country
Net Unrealized
Net Unrealized
Net Unrealized
Net Unrealized
Net Unrealized
of Risk
(1)
Gain/(Loss)
Gain/(Loss)
Gain/(Loss)
Gain/(Loss)
Gain/(Loss)
Eurozone Core
(2)
$ 2,029
$36
$ 1,160
$15
$ 348
($2)
$ 213
$7
$ 3,750
$56
Non-Eurozone Europe (3)
731
16
268
11
302
(6)
86
1
1,387
22
GIIPS
(4)
18
(1)
202
(4)
4
(2)
12
-
236
(7)
Total
$ 2,778
$51
$ 1,630
$22
$ 654
($10)
$ 311
$8
$ 5,373
$71
Governments
Corp Non-Financials
Corp Financials
Aggregate Europe
(6)
Structured Credit
(5)
XL Policies to Manage Investment Risk in Continental
Europe
Investment portfolio positioned defensively vis-à-vis Continental Europe
Underweight corporate exposure, particularly banks
Most bank exposure is to national champions in northern Europe
Exposure to peripheral corporates is modest
$4MM financial and $202MM non-financial at May 31, 2012
Majority of non-financial exposure is essential services or issuers with significant geographic business
diversification
Nearly 80% of exposure is from Germany, France, Switzerland and the Netherlands
We have taken further action since May 31, 2012 to reduce tail risk exposure in
the event
conditions worsen in the financial markets in Europe
Reduced Continental European financials by approximately $100MM, or 8%
9
Continue margin expansion
Grow premium in disciplined manner
Continue prudent reserving policies
Maintain matched European asset and liability profiles
Conclusions
10
Q&A
11
Reconciliation
For the three Months ended March 31, 2012
$MM, except per share data
Unaudited
The following is a reconciliation of the Companys net income (loss) attributable to ordinary shareholders to operating net income (loss) (Note 1) and also includes the calculation of annualized return on ordinary shareholders equity based on operating net income (loss) for the three months ended March 31, 2012 and 2011:
Please see slide 13 for applicable footnotes
12
2012
2011
(5) (6)
Net income (loss) attributable to ordinary shareholders
176,628
$
(227,284)
$
Net realized (gains) losses on investments, net of tax
(20,462)
63,315
Net realized and unrealized (gains) losses on derivatives, net of tax
(697)
(5,209)
Net realized and unrealized (gains) losses on investments and derivatives related to the
Company's insurance company affiliates
(40)
(874)
Foreign exchange (gains) losses, net of tax
9,802
7,197
Gain on repurchase of non-controlling interest preference ordinary shares
-
(134)
Operating net income (loss)
(1)
165,231
$
(162,989)
$
Per ordinary share results:
(2)
Net income (loss) attributable to ordinary shareholders
0.56
$
(0.73)
$
Operating net income (loss)
(1)
0.52
$
(0.52)
$
Weighted average ordinary shares outstanding:
Basic
315,120,210
311,478,402
Diluted - Net income
317,639,325
311,478,402
Diluted - Operating net income
317,639,325
311,478,402
Return on ordinary shareholders' equity
:
Closing ordinary shareholders' equity
(4) (8)
9,710,022
$
9,253,918
$
Average ordinary shareholders' equity
(4) (8)
9,560,840
$
9,425,695
$
Operating net income (loss)
(1)
165,231
$
(162,989)
$
Annualized operating net income (loss)
(1) (3)
660,924
N/M
Annualized return on ordinary shareholders' equity
(3) (4) (8)
- operating net income (loss)
(1)
6.9%
(6.9%)
Three months ended
March 31
Footnotes
1
Defined as net income (loss) attributable to ordinary shareholders excluding (1) net realized gains and losses on investments, net of tax for XL, (2) net realized and unrealized gains and losses on derivatives, net of tax, for XL, (3) its share of items (1) and (2) for the Companys insurance company affiliates for the periods presented, (4) goodwill impairment charges, net of tax, (5) the gains recognized on the repurchase of XLIT Ltd.s preference ordinary shares and (6) foreign exchange gains or losses, net of tax. Operating net income and return on ordinary shareholders equity based on operating net income are non-GAAP financial measures. See the schedule entitled Reconciliation on slide 12 for a reconciliation of operating net income to net income (loss) attributable to ordinary shareholders and the calculation of return on ordinary shareholders equity based on operating net income to average ordinary shareholders equity.
2
Diluted weighted average number of ordinary shares outstanding is used to calculate per share data except where it is anti-dilutive to earnings per share or where there is a net loss. When it is anti-dilutive or when a net loss occurs, basic weighted average ordinary shares outstanding is utilized in the calculation of fully diluted net loss per share and fully diluted net operating loss per share.
3 Calculated based on operating net income. See Note 1 above.
4
On January 1, 2012, for all fiscal years and interim periods presented, the Company adopted a FASB accounting standards update to address disparities in practice regarding the interpretation of which costs relating to the acquisition of new and renewal insurance contracts qualify for deferral. This guidance was adopted on a retrospective basis. The impact of adoption of this guidance was a reduction in deferred acquisition costs of approximately $21 million, a reduction in deferred tax liabilities of approximately $7 million, and a corresponding reduction in opening retained earnings of approximately $14 million from the amounts presented in the Companys December 31, 2011 balance sheet. The adoption of this guidance did not have an impact on the Companys consolidated statements of income or comprehensive income.
5 Certain amounts have been reclassified to conform with the current period presentation.
6 N/M = not meaningful.
7 Book value per ordinary share is a non-GAAP financial measure. See Comment on Regulation G on slide 14.
8 Ordinary shareholders equity is defined as total shareholders equity less non-controlling interest in equity of consolidated subsidiaries.
13
Comment on Regulation G
XL presents its operations in the way it believes will be most meaningful and useful to investors, analysts, rating agencies and others who use XLs financial information
in evaluating XLs performance. This
presentation contains the presentation of (i) operating net income (loss) (Operating Net Income), which is defined as net income (loss) attributable to ordinary shareholders excluding: (1)
net realized gains and
losses on investments net of tax, for XL, (2) net realized and unrealized gains and losses on derivatives, net of tax, for XL, (3) its share of items (1) and (2) for the Companys insurance company affiliates for the
periods
presented, (4) goodwill impairment charges, net of tax, (5) the gains recognized on the repurchase of XLIT Ltd.s preference ordinary shares and (6) foreign exchange gains or losses, net of tax, (ii) annualized
return on ordinary shareholders
equity (ROE) based on operating net income (loss) (Operating ROE) and (iii) book value per ordinary share, (ordinary shareholders equity divided by the number of shares
outstanding at any period end).
These items are non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. The reconciliation of such measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in
accordance with Regulation G is included herein.
Although the investment of premiums to generate income (or loss) and realized capital gains (or losses) is an integral part of XLs operations, the determination to realize
capital gains (or losses) is independent of the
underwriting process. In addition, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, losses can be created as the result of other than temporary declines in value and from goodwill impairment charges
without actual
realization. In this regard, certain users of XLs financial information, including certain rating agencies, evaluate earnings before tax and capital gains to understand the profitability of the recurring sources of income
without the effects of these two variables. Furthermore, these users believe that, for many companies, the timing of the realization of capital gains and the recognition of goodwill impairment charges are largely a
function of economic and interest
rate conditions.
Net realized and unrealized (gains) losses on derivatives, net of tax include all derivatives entered into by XL other than certain credit derivatives. With respect to
credit derivatives, because XL and its insurance
company operating affiliates generally hold financial guaranty contracts written in credit default derivative form to maturity, the net effects of the changes in fair value of these credit derivatives are
excluded (similar
with other companies treatment of such contracts) as the changes in fair value each quarter are not indicative of underlying business performance.
The gains recognized on the repurchase of XLIT Ltd.s preference ordinary shares are excluded as these transactions were capital in nature and outside the scope of the Companys underlying business.
Foreign exchange gains and losses in the income statement are only one element of the overall impact of foreign exchange fluctuations on the Companys financial position
and are not representative of any economic
gain or loss made by the Company. Accordingly, it is not a relevant indicator of financial performance and it is excluded.
In summary, XL evaluates the performance of and manages its business to produce an underwriting profit. In addition to presenting net income (loss), XL believes that showing
operating net income (loss) enables
investors and other users of XLs financial information to analyze XLs performance in a manner similar to how management of XL analyzes performance. In
this regard, XL believes that providing only a GAAP
presentation of net income (loss) makes it much more difficult for users of XLs financial information to evaluate XLs underlying business. Also, as stated above, XL believes that the equity
analysts and certain rating
agencies that follow XL (and the insurance industry as a whole) exclude these items from their analyses for the same reasons and they request that XL provide this non-GAAP financial information on a regular basis.
Operating ROE is a widely used measure of any companys profitability that is calculated by dividing annualized Operating Net Income for any period by the average of the
opening and closing ordinary shareholders
equity. The Company establishes target Operating ROEs for its total operations, segments and lines of business. If the Companys Operating ROE targets are not met with respect to any line of business
over time,
the Company seeks to re-evaluate these lines.
The Company believes that book value per ordinary share is a financial measure important to investors and other interested parties who benefit from having a consistent basis
for comparison with other companies
within the industry. However, this measure may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by companies either outside or inside of the insurance industry.
14