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8-K - 8-K - ASSURED GUARANTY LTDa12-3828_18k.htm
EX-99.1 - EX-99.1 - ASSURED GUARANTY LTDa12-3828_1ex99d1.htm

Exhibit 99.2

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd. March 31, 2012 Financial Supplement Table of Contents Page Selected Financial Highlights 1 Consolidated Statements of Operations 2 Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income 3 Consolidated Balance Sheets 4 Adjusted Book Value 5 Claims Paying Resources 6 New Business Production 7 Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written 8 New Business Production by Quarter 9 Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash 10 Estimated Net Exposure Amortization and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues 11 Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding 12 Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed 13 Financial Guaranty Profile 14 Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile 18 Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile 19 Direct U.S. RMBS Profile 20 Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile 22 Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile 23 Below Investment Grade Exposures 24 Largest Exposures by Sector 29 Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid 33 Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivative U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties Benefit Development 34 Losses Incurred 35 Effect of Adoption of New Accounting Guidance on Acquisition Costs 36 Summary Financial and Statistical Data 37 Glossary 38 Non-GAAP Financial Measures 40 This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“AGL” and, together with its subsidiaries, “Assured Guaranty” or the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011 and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2012. Some amounts in this financial supplement may not add due to rounding. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward Looking Statements: Any forward looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of Assured Guaranty or any of its subsidiaries and/or of transactions that Assured Guaranty’s subsidiaries have insured, all of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers’ payment rates, Assured Guaranty’s loss experience, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) the impact of ratings agency action with respect to sovereign debt and the resulting effect on the value of securities in the Company's investment portfolio and collateral posted by and to the Company; (5) more severe or frequent losses implicating the adequacy of Assured Guaranty’s expected loss estimates; (6) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s contracts written in credit default swap form; (7) reduction in the amount of insurance opportunities available to Assured Guaranty; (8) deterioration in the financial condition of Assured Guaranty's reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements; (9) the possibility that Assured Guaranty will not realize insurance loss recoveries or damages expected from originators, sellers, sponsors, underwriters or servicers of residential mortgage-backed securities transactions; (10) the possibility that budget shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state and local governments that the Company insures or reinsures; (11) increased competition; (12) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (13) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance and tax laws; (14) other governmental actions; (15) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; (16) contract cancellations; (17) Assured Guaranty’s dependence on customers; (18) loss of key personnel; (19) adverse technological developments; (20) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (21) natural or man-made catastrophes; (22) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (23) management’s response to these factors; and (24) other risk factors identified in Assured Guaranty’s filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. AG_FoCo_logo

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 2011 (1) Operating income reconciliation: Operating income 71.2$ 247.4$ Plus after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments (0.7) 1.9 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives (517.0) (217.7) Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (9.1) 0.3 Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable and loss and loss adjustment expense ("LAE") reserves 6.5 9.2 Effect of consolidating financial guaranty variable interest entities ("FG VIEs") (33.9) 98.2 Net income (loss) (483.0)$ 139.3$ Earnings per diluted share: Operating income 0.38$ 1.32$ Plus after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments - 0.01 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives (2.83) (1.16) Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (0.05) - Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves 0.04 0.05 Effect of consolidating FG VIEs (0.19) 0.52 Net income (loss) (2.65)$ 0.74$ Effective tax rate on operating income 17.9% 28.0% Effective tax rate on net income 30.6% 34.7% Return on equity ("ROE") calculations 1, 2: ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio (47.3)% 15.3% Operating ROE 5.4% 20.6% New Business: Gross par written 4,881$ 2,319$ Present value of new business production ("PVP") 3 56.3$ 52.5$ As of Other information: March 31, 2012 December 31, 2011 Net debt service outstanding 858,527$ 845,665$ Net par outstanding 567,098 558,048 Claims paying resources 4 13,035 12,839 1. Effective January 1, 2012, the Company adopted a new guidance on acquisition costs with retroactive application. See page 36 for the effect of that adoption on prior periods' results. 2. Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns. 3. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement. 4. See page 6 for additional detail on claims paying resources. Page 1

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Statements of Operations (dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts) Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 2011 (1) Revenues: Net earned premiums 193.7$ 254.0$ Net investment income 97.8 97.4 Net realized investment gains (losses) 1.3 2.8 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: Realized gains (losses) and other settlements (56.9) 35.4 Net unrealized gains (losses) (633.8) (271.6) Net change in fair value of credit derivatives (690.7) (236.2) Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (13.9) 0.5 Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs (36.6) 119.6 Other income 91.0 40.9 Total revenues (357.4) 279.0 Expenses: Loss and loss adjustment expenses 246.8 (25.5) Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 5.4 3.7 Interest expense 24.7 24.8 Other operating expenses 61.3 62.8 Total expenses 338.2 65.8 Income (loss) before income taxes (695.6) 213.2 Provision (benefit) for income taxes (212.6) 73.9 Net income (loss) (483.0)$ 139.3$ Less after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments (0.7) 1.9 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives (517.0) (217.7) Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (9.1) 0.3 Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves 6.5 9.2 Effect of consolidating FG VIEs (33.9) 98.2 Operating income 71.2$ 247.4$ Weighted average shares outstanding Basic shares outstanding 182.4 183.9 Diluted shares outstanding 2 182.4 187.1 Shares outstanding at the end of period3 182.5 184.0 Effect of refundings and accelerations, net Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations 36.6$ 29.6$ Operating income effect 24.0 19.8 Operating income per diluted share effect 0.13 0.11 1. Effective January 1, 2012, the Company adopted a new guidance on acquisition costs with retroactive application. See page 36 for the effect of that adoption on prior periods' results. 2. Non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding were 186.2 million and 187.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2012 and 2011, respectively. 3. On June 1, 2012, AGL is required to issue between 13.4 million and 15.8 million common shares in connection with its issuance in June 2009 of 3,450,000 equity units. Each of the equity units includes a forward purchase contract under which the holders are required to purchase such common shares. Note: Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement. Page 2

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (in millions) Three Months Ended Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 March 31, 2011 GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results GAAP Income Statement As Reported (1) Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results (1) Revenues: Net earned premiums 193.7$ (17.0)$ (2) 210.7$ 254.0$ (19.1)$ (2) 273.1$ Net investment income 97.8 1.9 (2) 95.9 97.4 (0.3) (2) 97.7 Net realized investment gains (losses) 1.3 (0.5) (3) 1.8 2.8 2.8 (3) - Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: Realized gains (losses) and other settlements (56.9) (56.9) - 35.4 35.4 - Net unrealized gains (losses) (633.8) (633.8) - (271.6) (271.6) - Credit derivative revenues - (28.8) 28.8 - (61.0) 61.0 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives (690.7) (719.5) (4) 28.8 (236.2) (297.2) (4) 61.0 Fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities (13.9) (13.9) (5) - 0.5 0.5 (5) - Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs (36.6) (36.6) (2) - 119.6 119.6 (2) - Other income 91.0 2.7 (6) 88.3 40.9 12.9 (6) 28.0 Total revenues (357.4) (782.9) 425.5 279.0 (180.8) 459.8 Expenses: Loss expense: Financial guaranty insurance 246.8 (2.3) (2) 249.1 (25.5) (50.7) (2) 25.2 Credit derivatives - 1.7 (4) (1.7) (0.1) (4) 0.1 Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 5.4 - 5.4 3.7 - 3.7 Interest expense 24.7 - 24.7 24.8 - 24.8 Other operating expenses 61.3 - 61.3 62.8 - 62.8 Total expenses 338.2 (0.6) 338.8 65.8 (50.8) 116.6 Income (loss) before income taxes (695.6) (782.3) 86.7 213.2 (130.0) 343.2 Provision (benefit) for income taxes (212.6) (228.1) (7) 15.5 73.9 (21.9) (7) 95.8 Net income (loss) (483.0)$ (554.2)$ 71.2$ 139.3$ (108.1)$ 247.4$ 1. Effective January 1, 2012, the Company adopted a new guidance on acquisition costs with retroactive application. See page 36 for the effect of that adoption on prior periods' results. 2. Adjustments primarily related to elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs. 3. Adjustments to eliminate realized gains (losses) on available-for-sale investments. 4. Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense. 5. Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities. 6. Adjustments primarily related to elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premiums receivable. 7. Tax effect of the above adjustments. Note: Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement. Page 3

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Balance Sheets (in millions) As of : March 31, December 31, 2012 2011 (1) Assets: Investment portfolio: Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value 10,204.9$ 10,141.9$ Short-term investments, at fair value 903.4 734.0 Other invested assets 203.9 222.9 Total investment portfolio 11,312.2 11,098.8 Cash 182.0 214.5 Premiums receivable, net of ceding commissions payable 1,018.7 1,002.9 Ceded unearned premium reserve 631.4 708.9 Deferred acquisition costs 129.0 132.4 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 152.9 69.3 Salvage and subrogation recoverable 367.3 367.7 Credit derivative assets 463.6 468.9 Deferred tax asset, net 1,031.8 803.5 Current income tax receivable 50.3 76.4 FG VIE assets, at fair value 2,827.7 2,819.1 Other assets 337.9 262.3 Total assets 18,504.8$ 18,024.7$ Liabilities and shareholders' equity: Liabilities: Unearned premium reserve 5,839.2$ 5,962.8$ Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve 954.5 679.0 Reinsurance balances payable, net 204.2 171.0 Long-term debt 1,034.7 1,038.3 Credit derivative liabilities 2,416.3 1,772.8 FG VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value 2,365.2 2,396.9 FG VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value 1,085.6 1,061.5 Other liabilities 422.6 290.8 Total liabilities 14,322.3 13,373.1 Shareholders' equity: Common stock 1.8 1.8 Additional paid-in capital 2,569.5 2,569.9 Retained earnings 1,208.4 1,708.0 Accumulated other comprehensive income 398.4 367.5 Deferred equity compensation 4.4 4.4 Total shareholders' equity 4,182.5 4,651.6 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 18,504.8$ 18,024.7$ 1. Effective January 1, 2012, the Company adopted a new guidance on acquisition costs with retroactive application. See page 36 for the effect of that adoption on prior periods' results. Page 4

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Adjusted Book Value (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) As of : March 31, 2012 December 31, 2011 (1) Total Per share Total Per share Reconciliation of shareholders' equity to adjusted book value: Shareholders' equity 4,182.5$ 22.91$ 4,651.6$ 25.52$ Less after-tax adjustments: Effect of consolidating FG VIEs (438.7) (2.40) (405.2) (2.22) Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives (1,021.1) (5.59) (498.0) (2.74) Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 26.0 0.14 35.0 0.19 Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect 353.9 1.93 318.4 1.75 Operating shareholders' equity 5,262.4$ 28.83$ 5,201.4$ 28.54$ After-tax adjustments: Less: Deferred acquisition costs 173.0 0.95 174.1 0.95 Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue 274.8 1.51 302.3 1.66 Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed 3,646.1 19.98 3,658.0 20.07 Adjusted book value 9,010.3$ 49.37$ 8,987.6$ 49.32$ 1. Effective January 1, 2012, the Company adopted a new guidance on acquisition costs with retroactive application. See page 36 for the effect of that adoption on prior periods' results. Note: Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement. Page 5

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Claims Paying Resources (dollars in millions) As of March 31, 2012 Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Assured Guaranty Corp. Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.1 Eliminations 2 Consolidated Claims paying resources Policyholders' surplus 1,058$ 992$ 1,116$ (300)$ 2,866$ Contingency reserve 2,066 734 - - 2,800 Qualified statutory capital 3,124 1,726 1,116 (300) 5,666 Unearned premium reserve 2,276 820 1,028 - 4,124 Loss and LAE reserves 3, 4 431 326 304 - 1,061 Total policyholders' surplus and reserves 5,831 2,872 2,448 (300) 10,851 Present value of installment premium 4 517 391 241 - 1,149 Standby line of credit/stop loss 200 200 200 - 600 Excess of loss reinsurance facility 435 435 - (435) 435 Total claims paying resources 6,983$ 3,898$ 2,889$ (735)$ 13,035$ Net par outstanding 5 318,247$ 103,632$ 129,868$ (1,581)$ 550,166$ Net debt service outstanding 5 481,836$ 152,173$ 209,918$ (3,745)$ 840,182$ Ratios: Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital 102:1 60:1 116:1 97:1 Capital ratio 6 154:1 88:1 188:1 148:1 Financial resources ratio 7 69:1 39:1 73:1 64:1 1. Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. ("AG Re") numbers represent the Company's estimate of U.S. statutory accounting practices prescribed or permitted by insurance regulatory authorities. 2. In 2009, Assured Guaranty Corp. ("AGC") issued a $300.0 million note payable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. ("AGM"). Net par and net debt service outstanding eliminations represent second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary. 3. Reserves are reduced by approximately $1.5 billion for benefit related to representation and warranty recoverables. 4. Includes financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives. 5. Net par outstanding and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis. Under statutory accounting, such amounts would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., an issuer has legally discharged its obligations with respect to a municipal security by satisfying conditions set forth in defeasance provisions contained in transaction documents and is no longer responsible for the payment of debt service with respect to such obligations) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., transaction documents for a municipal security do not contain defeasance provisions but the issuer establishes an escrow account with U.S. government securities in amounts sufficient to pay the refunded bonds when due; the refunded bonds are not considered paid and continue to be outstanding under the transaction documents and the issuer remains responsible to pay debt service when due to the extent monies on deposit in the escrow account are insufficient for such purpose). 6. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital. 7. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources. Page 6

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. New Business Production (in millions) Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 2011 Consolidated new business production analysis: PVP Public finance - U.S.: Assumed from Radian 21.9$ -$ Primary markets 27.2 26.7 Secondary markets 3.3 7.3 Public finance - non-U.S.: Primary markets - - Secondary markets - - Structured finance - U.S. 3.9 11.3 Structured finance - non-U.S. - 7.2 Total PVP 56.3$ 52.5$ Total PVP 56.3$ 52.5$ Less: PVP of credit derivatives - - PVP of financial guaranty insurance 56.3 52.5 Less: financial guaranty installment premium PVP 4.0 18.7 Total: financial guaranty upfront gross written premiums ("GWP") 52.3 33.8 Plus: financial guaranty installment GWP 1 36.1 (45.3) Total GWP 88.4$ (11.5)$ Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written: Public finance - U.S.: Assumed from Radian 1,797$ -$ Primary markets 2,902 1,886 Secondary markets 144 333 Public finance - non-U.S.: Primary markets - - Secondary markets - - Structured finance - U.S. 38 100 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - Total 4,881$ 2,319$ 1. Represents present value of new business on installment policies plus GWP adjustment on existing installment deals due to changes in assumptions and any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts. Note: Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement. Page 7

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written (in millions) Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written by Asset Type Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 Sector: Gross Par Written Avg. Internal Rating U.S. public finance: General obligation 3,457$ A- Municipal utilities 354 A- Tax backed 333 A Higher education 286 A Healthcare 232 A- Transportation 145 A- Other public finance 36 A- Total U.S. public finance 4,843 A- Non-U.S. public finance: Total non-U.S. public finance - - Total public finance 4,843$ A- U.S. structured finance: Other structure finance 38$ A- Total U.S. structured finance 38 A- Non-U.S. structured finance: Total non-U.S. structured finance - - Total structured finance 38$ A- Total gross par written 4,881$ A- Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of internal ratings and sectors. Page 8

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. New Business Production by Quarter (in millions) 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 4Q-11 1Q-12 PVP: Public finance - U.S.: Assumed from Radian -$ -$ -$ -$ 21.9$ Primary markets 26.7 36.0 33.7 51.6 27.2 Secondary markets 7.3 8.8 5.9 3.0 3.3 Public finance - non-U.S.: Primary markets - - - 2.7 - Secondary markets - - - - - Structured finance - U.S. 11.3 7.1 11.2 30.2 3.9 Structured finance - non-U.S. 7.2 - - - - Total PVP 52.5$ 51.9$ 50.8$ 87.5$ 56.3$ Total PVP 52.5$ 51.9$ 50.8$ 87.5$ 56.3$ Less: PVP of credit derivatives - - - - PVP of financial guaranty insurance 52.5 51.9 50.8 87.5 56.3 Less: financial guaranty installment premium PVP 18.7 5.9 11.3 32.9 4.0 Total: financial guaranty upfront GWP 33.8 46.0 39.5 54.6 52.3 Plus: financial guaranty installment GWP 1 (45.3) (29.0) (17.9) 45.1 36.1 Total GWP (11.5)$ 17.0$ 21.6$ 99.7$ 88.4$ Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written2: Public finance - U.S.: Assumed from Radian -$ -$ -$ -$ 1,797$ Primary markets 1,886 3,292 4,078 4,759 2,902 Secondary markets 333 356 264 124 144 Public finance - non-U.S.: Primary markets - - - 127 - Secondary markets - - - - - Structured finance - U.S. 100 725 266 582 38 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - - - - Total 2,319$ 4,373$ 4,608$ 5,592$ 4,881$ 1. Represents present value of new business on installment policies plus GWP adjustment on existing installment deals due to changes in assumptions and any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts. 2. Includes committed amount including undrawn revolvers. Note: Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement. Page 9

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Pre-Tax After-Tax Annualized Amortized Book Book Fair Investment Cost Yield Yield Value Income1 Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: Fixed maturity securities: U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies 428.4$ 2.63% 1.89% 452.8$ 11.3$ Agency obligations 374.8 3.64% 3.06% 414.0 13.7 Foreign government securities 349.7 2.84% 1.85% 360.9 9.9 Obligations of states and political subdivisions 3,590.2 4.01% 3.78% 3,846.3 143.8 Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions 2 1,554.1 4.79% 4.53% 1,679.8 74.4 Corporate securities 986.8 3.59% 2.97% 1,042.8 35.5 Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") 3: Residential MBS ("RMBS") 4 1,584.7 5.01% 4.01% 1,508.2 79.3 Commercial MBS ("CMBS") 472.1 4.05% 3.40% 501.5 19.1 Asset-backed securities 5 463.6 9.33% 6.47% 482.9 43.3 Total fixed maturity securities 9,804.4 4.39% 3.79% 10,289.2 430.3 Short-term investments 873.1 0.06% 0.04% 873.5 0.5 Cash6 176.4 - - 176.4 - Total 10,853.9$ 4.03% 3.48% 11,339.1$ 430.8$ Less: FG VIEs 109.6 8.48% 5.51% 48.8 9.3 Total 10,744.3$ 3.96% 3.44% 11,290.3$ 421.5$ Fair Ratings 7: Value % of Portfolio U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies 452.8$ 4.4% Agency obligations 414.0 4.0% AAA/Aaa 1,893.3 18.4% AA/Aa 5,512.3 53.6% A/A 1,490.1 14.5% BBB 4.7 0.0% Below investment grade ("BIG") 8 504.0 4.9% Not rated 8 18.0 0.2% Total fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale 10,289.2$ 100.0% Less: FG VIEs 84.3 Total fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale 10,204.9$ Duration of available-for-sale investment portfolio (in years): 4.7 Average ratings of available-for-sale investment portfolio AA 1. Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields. 2. Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services ("S&P") or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. ("Moody's") average AA-. Includes $307.6 million insured by AGC and AGM. 3. Includes $38.3 million in U.S. subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of BIG. 4. Includes investments purchased for loss mitigation purposes. 5. Contains no collateralized debt obligations ("CDOs") of asset-backed securities ("ABS"). 6. Represents operating cash and is not included in yield calculations. 7. Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation or risk management strategies which use internal ratings classifications. 8. Included in the investment portfolio are securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $1,864.0 million in par with carrying value of $550.6 million. Page 10

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Estimated Net Exposure Amortization 1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues (in millions) Financial Guaranty Insurance 2 Estimated Future Estimated Net Ending Net Expected PV Future Net Credit Debt Service Debt Service Net Earned Accretion of Premiums Derivative Amortization Outstanding Premiums 3 Discount Earned Revenues 4 Total 2012 (as of March 31) 858,527$ 2012 Q2 17,655$ 840,872 144.3$ 6.7$ 151.0$ 31.7$ 182.7$ 2012 Q3 18,725 822,147 138.2 6.7 144.9 29.7 174.6 2012 Q4 16,457 805,690 131.6 6.5 138.1 26.8 164.9 2013 64,855 740,835 474.1 24.7 498.8 93.1 591.9 2014 65,165 675,670 436.6 22.9 459.5 67.1 526.6 2015 55,215 620,455 387.1 21.2 408.3 45.9 454.2 2016 44,503 575,952 351.9 19.7 371.6 36.0 407.6 2012-2016 282,575 575,952 2,063.8 108.4 2,172.2 330.3 2,502.5 2017-2021 188,995 386,957 1,334.4 78.6 1,413.0 97.8 1,510.8 2022-2026 151,678 235,279 838.9 52.1 891.0 53.3 944.3 2027-2031 103,616 131,663 508.2 32.6 540.8 40.6 581.4 After 2031 131,663 - 525.7 27.1 552.8 45.6 598.4 Total 858,527$ 5,271.0$ 298.8$ 5,569.8$ 567.6$ 6,137.4$ 1. Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of March 31, 2012. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization. 2. See page 14 for “Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed” 3. Excludes $396.2 million in expected present value of net earned premiums related to FG VIEs. 4. Excludes contracts with credit impairment. Page 11

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding (in millions) Structured Finance Estimated Net Par Amortization U.S. and Other Estimated Non-U.S. Pooled U.S. Financial Structured Ending Net Par Corporate RMBS Products 1 Finance Total Outstanding 2012 (as of March 31) 110,686$ 2012 (April 1 - December 31) 8,932$ 3,693$ 625$ 2,481$ 15,731$ 94,955 2013 13,446 3,474 656 1,990 19,566 75,389 2014 18,470 2,368 503 1,708 23,049 52,340 2015 9,923 1,976 273 2,961 15,133 37,207 2016 3,788 1,744 159 1,259 6,950 30,257 2012-2016 54,559 13,255 2,216 10,399 80,429 30,257 2017-2021 8,885 4,327 310 2,768 16,290 13,967 2022-2026 570 1,829 456 1,769 4,624 9,343 2027-2031 433 678 652 774 2,537 6,806 After 2031 2,805 784 734 2,483 6,806 - Total structured finance 67,252$ 20,873$ 4,368$ 18,193$ 110,686$ Public Finance Estimated Estimated Net Par Ending Net Par Amortization Outstanding 2012 (as of March 31) 456,412$ 2012 (April 1 - December 31) 19,439$ 436,973 2013 23,130 413,843 2014 21,412 392,431 2015 20,673 371,758 2016 19,282 352,476 2012-2016 103,936 352,476 2017-2021 96,393 256,083 2022-2026 94,060 162,023 2027-2031 68,532 93,491 After 2031 93,491 - Total public finance 456,412$ Net par outstanding (end of period): 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 4Q-11 1Q-12 Public finance - U.S. 417,367$ 413,274$ 408,065$ 403,073$ 416,499$ Public finance - non-U.S. 41,828 41,226 39,267 39,046 39,913 Structured finance - U.S. 113,108 103,978 97,969 92,234 87,784 Structured finance - non-U.S. 29,984 28,718 26,424 23,695 22,902 Total 602,287$ 587,196$ 571,725$ 558,048$ 567,098$ 1. See Glossary for description of financial products. Page 12

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Present Value ("PV") of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed As of March 31, 2012 (in millions) Net Expected Loss to be Expensed 1 Operating 2 GAAP 2 2012 Q2 19.2$ 17.8$ 2012 Q3 19.5 17.0 2012 Q4 19.2 15.5 2013 76.9 58.4 2014 66.1 46.8 2015 57.9 41.2 2016 48.1 33.2 2012-2016 306.9 229.9 2017-2021 185.7 136.9 2022-2026 98.8 74.0 2027-2031 64.4 35.8 After 2031 59.0 27.2 Total expected PV of net expected loss to be expensed 714.8 503.8 Discount 360.7 292.6 Total future value 1,075.5$ 796.4$ 1. The expected present value of net loss to be expensed is discounted by weighted-average risk free rates ranging from 0.0% to 3.94% for U.S. dollar denominated obligations and 0.0% to 2.84% for Euro denominated obligations. 2. Operating income includes net expected loss to be expensed on consolidated FG VIEs. Losses on consolidated FG VIEs are eliminated for GAAP. Page 13

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 4) (in millions) Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type December 31, 2011 March 31, 2012 Net Par Outstanding Avg. Internal Rating Net Par Outstanding Avg. Internal Rating U.S. public finance: General obligation 179,653$ A+ 173,061$ A+ Tax backed 79,977 A+ 78,006 A+ Municipal utilities 66,100 A 65,204 A Transportation 37,864 A 35,396 A Healthcare 20,482 A 19,495 A Higher education 16,040 A+ 15,677 A+ Housing 5,875 AA- 5,696 AA- Infrastructure finance 4,105 BBB 4,110 BBB Investor-owned utilities 1,119 A- 1,124 A- Other public finance 5,284 A- 5,304 A- Total U.S. public finance 416,499 A+ 403,073 A+ Non-U.S. public finance: Infrastructure finance 15,683 BBB 15,405 BBB Regulated utilities 13,595 BBB+ 13,260 BBB+ Pooled infrastructure 3,217 AA- 3,130 AA- Other public finance 7,418 A+ 7,251 A+ Total non-U.S. public finance 39,913 BBB+ 39,046 BBB+ Total public finance 456,412$ A 442,119$ A U.S. structured finance: Pooled corporate obligations 49,833$ AAA 51,520$ AAA RMBS 20,873 BB+ 21,567 BB+ CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures 4,621 AAA 4,774 AAA Financial products 4,368 AA- 5,217 AA- Consumer receivables 3,524 A+ 4,326 AA- Insurance securitizations 1,824 A+ 1,893 A+ Commercial receivables 1,109 BBB 1,214 BBB Structured credit 380 B 424 B- Other structured finance 1,252 BBB+ 1,299 A- Total U.S. structured finance 87,784 AA- 92,234 AA- Non-U.S. structured finance: Pooled corporate obligations 17,419 AAA 17,731 AAA Commercial receivables 1,639 A- 1,865 A- RMBS 1,539 AA- 1,598 AA Insurance securitizations 923 CCC- 964 CCC- Structured credit 887 BBB 979 BBB CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures 118 AAA 180 AAA Other structured finance 377 Super Senior 378 Super Senior Total non-U.S. structured finance 22,902 AA 23,695 AA Total structured finance 110,686$ AA- 115,929$ AA- Total net par outstanding 567,098$ A+ 558,048$ A+ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 14

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 4) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio Structured Finance - Non-U.S. Consolidated Structured Finance - U.S. Public Finance - U.S. Public Finance - Non-U.S. Ratings: Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding1 % Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Super senior -$ 0.0% 1,165$ 2.9% 15,756$ 18.0% 5,219$ 22.8% 22,140$ 3.9% AAA 4,931 1.2% 1,384 3.5% 34,974 39.8% 10,286 44.9% 51,575 9.1% AA 144,987 34.8% 973 2.4% 10,537 12.0% 936 4.1% 157,433 27.7% A 219,095 52.6% 11,126 27.9% 4,759 5.4% 1,389 6.1% 236,369 41.7% BBB 42,916 10.3% 22,913 57.4% 4,726 5.4% 3,027 13.2% 73,582 13.0% BIG 4,570 1.1% 2,352 5.9% 17,032 19.4% 2,045 8.9% 25,999 4.6% Total net par outstanding 416,499$ 100.0% 39,913 $ 100.0% 87,784$ 100.0% 22,902$ 100.0% 567,098$ 100.0% 1. As of March 31, 2012, the Company has reclassified as AA 80% of the net par outstanding of those first lien transactions that are covered by the Bank of America Agreement and that the Company otherwise would have internally rated below AA. The Company reclassified those amounts as AA exposure due to the eligible assets that Bank of America has placed in trust in order to collateralize its rimbursement obligation relating to 21 first lien transactions. Without this change, Structured Finance – U.S. net outstanding par rated BIG as of March 31, 2012 would have been $1,382 million higher. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 15

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 4) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio U.S.: Net Par Public finance: Outstanding % of Total California 59,806$ 10.5% New York 35,065 6.2% Pennsylvania 31,772 5.6% Texas 31,635 5.6% Illinois 26,737 4.7% Florida 26,428 4.7% New Jersey 17,493 3.1% Michigan 16,462 2.9% Massachusetts 11,937 2.1% Ohio 10,632 1.9% Other states 148,532 26.2% Total public finance 416,499 73.5% Structured finance (multiple states) 87,784 15.5% Total U.S. 504,283 89.0% Non-U.S.: United Kingdom 24,614 4.3% Australia 8,371 1.5% Canada 4,433 0.8% France 4,057 0.7% Italy 2,407 0.4% Other 18,933 3.3% Total non-U.S. 62,815 11.0% Total net par outstanding 567,098$ 100.0% Page 16

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 4) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Net Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Total Sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure: Public finance 291$ -$ -$ 1,040$ 113$ 270$ 1,714$ Infrastructure finance - 453 25 341 104 174 1,097 Total sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure 291 453 25 1,381 217 444 2,811 Non-sovereign exposure: Regulated utilities - - - 226 - 17 243 RMBS - 249 140 522 - - 911 Commercial receivables - 1 20 27 15 18 81 Pooled corporate obligations 33 - 244 251 14 544 1,086 Total non-sovereign exposure 33 250 404 1,026 29 579 2,321 Total 324$ 703$ 429$ 2,407$ 246$ 1,023$ 5,132$ Total BIG 291$ 540$ 15$ 252$ 130$ 145$ 1,373$ Note: While the Company’s exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, including U.S. dollars, Euros and British pounds sterling. Included in both tables above is $140.1 million of reinsurance assumed on a 2004 - 2006 pool of Irish residential mortgages that is part of the Company’s remaining $176.7 million legacy mortgage reinsurance business. The legacy mortgage reinsurance business is not included in the Company’s exposure tables elsewhere in this document due to materiality. One of the residential mortgage-backed securities included in the table above includes residential mortgages in both Italy and Germany, and only the portion of the transaction equal to the portion of the original mortgage pool in Italian mortgages is shown in the table. Page 17

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings Ratings: Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement Super Senior 16,443$ 25.0% 32.3% 31.6% AAA 40,333 61.3% 30.2% 28.7% AA 2,177 3.3% 41.2% 38.2% A 478 0.7% 45.8% 43.7% BBB 2,470 3.7% 35.3% 27.0% BIG 3,938 6.0% 38.1% 19.7% Total exposures 65,839$ 100.0% 31.9% 29.2% Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class Asset class: Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement Avg. Rating CBOs/CLOs 38,648$ 58.7% 31.9% 31.4% AAA Synthetic investment grade pooled corporates 11,520 17.5% 20.8% 19.0% AAA Market value CDOs of corporates 4,367 6.6% 35.1% 29.7% AAA Synthetic high yield pooled corporates 4,141 6.3% 43.8% 36.5% AAA Trust preferred Banks and insurance 3,193 4.8% 46.6% 33.1% BBB- U.S. mortgage and real estate investment trusts 2,186 3.3% 50.0% 33.2% BB European mortgage and real estate investment trusts 893 1.4% 36.7% 33.4% BBB- Other pooled corporates 891 1.4% 25.5% 17.0% BBB- Total exposures 65,839$ 100.0% 31.9% 29.2% AAA Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of internal ratings, performance indicators and sectors. Page 18

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure Ratings: Prime First Lien1 Closed End Seconds HELOC Alt-A First Lien1 Option ARMs1 Subprime First Lien1 Net Interest Margin Total Net Par Outstanding AAA 6$ 0$ 97$ 288$ -$ 2,473$ -$ 2,865$ AA 53 22 185 433 572 1,614 - 2,878 A 2 1 265 11 37 883 - 1,198 BBB 128 - 37 304 185 554 - 1,208 BIG 525 997 3,117 4,172 1,463 2,433 18 12,725 Total exposures 713$ 1,019$ 3,700$ 5,208$ 2,256$ 7,958$ 18$ 20,873$ Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured 2 and Type of Exposure Year insured: Prime First Lien Closed End Seconds HELOC Alt-A First Lien Option ARMs Subprime First Lien Net Interest Margin Total Net Par Outstanding 2004 and prior 40$ 1$ 277$ 114$ 42$ 1,478$ 0$ 1,952$ 2005 174 - 833 619 106 233 0 1,966 2006 118 445 1,097 412 499 3,381 0 5,952 2007 382 573 1,493 2,642 1,520 2,769 18 9,398 2008 - - - 1,421 89 96 - 1,606 Total exposures 713$ 1,019$ 3,700$ 5,208$ 2,256$ 7,958$ 18$ 20,873$ Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Year Insured AAA AA A BBB BIG Year insured: Rated Rated Rated Rated Rated Total 2004 and prior 1,277$ 66$ 62$ 218$ 329$ 1,952$ 2005 171 240 - 76 1,479 1,966 2006 1,269 1,376 837 278 2,192 5,952 2007 6 1,195 298 547 7,350 9,398 2008 143 - - 89 1,374 1,606 Total exposures 2,865$ 2,878$ 1,198$ 1,208$ 12,725$ 20,873$ % of total 13.7% 13.8% 5.7% 5.8% 61.0% 100.0% 1. As of March 31, 2012, the Company has reclassified as AA 80% of the net par outstanding of those first lien transactions that are covered by the Bank of America Agreement and that the Company otherwise would have internally rated below AA. The Company reclassified those amounts as AA exposure due to the eligible assets that Bank of America has placed in trust in order to collateralize its reimbursement obligation relating to 21 first lien transactions. 2. Assured Guaranty has not insured any U.S. RMBS transactions since 2008. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of performance indicators and sectors. Page 19

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 2) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies U.S. Prime First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 171$ 38.0% 5.0% 1.6% 11.5% 6 2006 118 56.7% 8.6% 0.1% 18.2% 1 2007 382 49.9% 7.9% 4.3% 18.8% 1 2008 - - - - - - 670$ 48.1% 7.3% 2.9% 16.8% 8 U.S. Closed End Seconds Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 -$ - - - - - 2006 434 14.4% - 61.3% 10.0% 2 2007 573 17.3% - 67.3% 9.8% 10 2008 - - - - - - 1,008$ 16.1% - 64.7% 9.9% 12 U.S. HELOC Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 783$ 16.8% 2.8% 15.6% 11.3% 6 2006 1,076 26.8% 2.6% 34.4% 9.2% 7 2007 1,493 41.8% 3.2% 30.1% 6.9% 9 2008 - - - - - - 3,351$ 31.2% 2.9% 28.1% 8.6% 22 U.S. Alt-A First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 617$ 33.1% 9.5% 6.2% 19.4% 21 2006 412 38.8% 0.0% 17.9% 38.6% 7 2007 2,642 49.6% 4.1% 13.4% 33.9% 12 2008 1,421 46.5% 21.1% 13.2% 29.7% 5 5,092$ 45.9% 9.2% 12.8% 31.4% 45 Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of performance indicators and sectors. Page 20

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 2) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies U.S. Option ARMs Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 97$ 23.5% 6.0% 10.2% 35.9% 3 2006 493 46.1% 1.0% 15.9% 53.2% 7 2007 1,520 49.3% 2.7% 17.1% 40.6% 11 2008 89 52.2% 48.9% 12.0% 36.3% 1 2,199$ 47.6% 4.4% 16.3% 43.1% 22 U.S. Subprime First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 222$ 39.4% 28.2% 5.9% 35.5% 4 2006 3,375 21.8% 61.9% 16.8% 37.5% 4 2007 2,769 50.7% 20.7% 19.6% 46.5% 13 2008 79 63.1% 26.6% 13.8% 31.7% 1 6,446$ 35.3% 42.6% 17.6% 41.2% 22 Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of performance indicators and sectors. Page 21

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. CMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Internal Rating, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies U.S. CMBS Rating: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions Super senior 3,216$ 77.7% 37.6% 1.7% 8.6% 148 AAA 202 73.4% 27.2% 2.0% 10.9% 11 AA - - - - - - A 140 42.0% 17.4% 2.0% 8.6% 1 BBB - - - - - - BIG - - - - - - Total exposures 3,558$ 76.1% 36.3% 1.7% 8.7% 160 CDOs of U.S. Commercial Real Estate and CMBS1 Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement CDOs of commercial real estate 655$ 83.4% 49.8% 52.4% CDOs of CMBS2 130 16.6% 31.2% 63.0% Total exposures 785$ 100.0% 46.7% 54.2% 1. Represents other U.S. Commercial Real Estate not included in the table above. 2. Relates to vintages 2003 and prior. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of performance indicators and sectors. Page 22

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables by Rating Rating: Credit Cards Student Loans Manufactured Housing Auto Total Net Par Outstanding Super senior 0$ -$ -$ 700$ 700$ AAA - 392 - 440 832 AA - - 63 58 121 A - - - 30 30 BBB - 869 40 - 909 BIG - - 141 - 141 Total exposures 0$ 1,261$ 244$ 1,228$ 2,733$ Average rating Super Senior A BB AAA AA Avg. initial credit enhancement 69.2% 7.2% 27.5% 40.6% 24.0% Avg. current credit enhancement 69.2% 9.8% 25.4% 49.9% 29.2% Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 23

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 5) (in millions) BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type BIG Net Par Outstanding 1 March 31, 2012 December 31, 2011 2 U.S. public finance: Infrastructure finance 1,335$ 1,335$ General obligation 1,079 966 Municipal utilities 662 672 Tax backed 498 459 Transportation 239 246 Healthcare 68 134 Higher education 18 20 Housing 0 0 Other public finance 671 675 Total U.S. public finance 4,570 4,507 Non-U.S. public finance: Infrastructure finance 1,945 1,924 Regulated utilities 4 9 Other public finance 403 395 Total non-U.S. public finance 2,352 2,328 Total public finance 6,922$ 6,835$ U.S. structured finance: RMBS 12,725$ 13,203$ Pooled corporate obligations 3,256 3,628 Consumer receivables 392 466 Structured credit 317 361 Commercial receivables 195 202 Other structured finance 147 148 Total U.S. structured finance 17,032 18,008 Non-U.S. structured finance: Pooled corporate obligations 980 980 Insurance securitizations 923 923 126 - RMBS Commercial receivables 16 16 Total non-U.S. structured finance 2,045 1,919 Total structured finance 19,077$ 19,927$ Total BIG net par outstanding 25,999$ 26,762$ 1. Securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,384.5 million and $1,293.0 million of gross par outstanding as of March 31, 2012 and December 31, 2011, respectively. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $434.6 million and $222.4 million in gross par outstanding as of March 31, 2012 and December 31, 2011, respectively.2. As of March 31, 2012, the Company has reclassified as AA 80% of the net par outstanding of those first lien transactions that are covered by the Bank of America Agreement and that the Company otherwise would have internally rated below AA. The Company reclassified those amounts as AA exposure due to the eligible assets that Bank of America has placed in trust in order to collateralize its reimbursement obligation relating to 21 first lien transactions. This reclassification resulted in a decrease of its RMBS net outstanding par rated BIG as of December 31, 2011 by $1,452 million from that previously reported and, without this change, RMBS net outstanding par rated BIG as of March 31, 2012 would have been $1,382 million higher. Prior periods have been revised to conform to this presentation. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 24

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 5) (in millions) Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category 1 Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories 2 March 31, 2012 December 31, 2011 3 Category 1 U.S. public finance $ 3,480 $ 3,395 Non-U.S. public finance 2,061 2,046 U.S. structured finance 4,146 5,882 Non-U.S. structured finance 1,053 927 Total Category 1 10,740 12,250 Category 2 U.S. public finance 270 274 Non-U.S. public finance 291 282 U.S. structured finance 5,513 4,383 Non-U.S. structured finance 42 42 Total Category 2 6,116 4,981 Category 3 U.S. public finance 820 838 Non-U.S. public finance - - U.S. structured finance 7,373 7,743 Non-U.S. structured finance 950 950 Total Category 3 9,143 9,531 BIG Total $ 25,999 $ 26,762 1. Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of BIG credits. BIG Category 1: Below investment grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make lifetime losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. Transactions on which claims have been paid but are expected to be fully reimbursed (other than investment grade transactions on which only liquidity claims have been paid) are in this category. BIG Category 2: Below investment grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below investment grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains. 2. Securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,384.5 million and $1,293.0 million of gross par outstanding as of March 31, 2012 and December 31, 2011, respectively. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $434.6 million and $222.4 million in gross par outstanding as of March 31, 2012 and December 31, 2011, respectively. 3. As of March 31, 2012, the Company has reclassified as AA 80% of the net par outstanding of those first lien transactions that are covered by the Bank of America Agreement and that the Company otherwise would have internally rated below AA. The Company reclassified those amounts as AA exposure due to the eligible assets that Bank of America has placed in trust in order to collateralize its reimbursement obligation relating to 21 first lien transactions. This reclassification resulted in a decrease of its RMBS net outstanding par rated BIG as of December 31, 2011 by $1,452 million from that previously reported and, without this change, RMBS net outstanding par rated BIG as of March 31, 2012 would have been $1,382 million higher. Prior periods have been revised to conform to this presentation.Page 25

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 5) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Public Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million Net Par Internal Name or description Outstanding Rating U.S. public finance: Skyway Concession Company LLC 1,086$ BB Jefferson County Alabama Sewer 479 D Detroit (City of) Michigan 385 BB San Joaquin Hills California Transportation 239 BB- GMAC Military Housing Trust XVIII (Hickam Air Force Base) 216 BB Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania 183 BB- Jefferson County Alabama School Sales Tax 174 BB Stockton City, California 162 BB- Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 158 B Detroit (City of) School District Michigan 152 BB Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 136 CCC Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 131 B Orlando Tourist Development Tax - Florida 118 BB+ Harrisburg (City of) Pennsylvania General Obligation 95 B- Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation - Commonwealth Appropriation 87 BB+ Xenia Rural Water District, Iowa 81 B Mashantucket Pequot Tribe, Connecticut 60 B Bessemer City, Alabama - Water Revenue 59 BB+ Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 57 B Total 4,058$ Non-U.S. public finance: Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited 692$ BB M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag 414 BB Cross City Tunnel Motorway Finance Limited 313 BB Hellenic Republic 291 B Aeroporti Di Roma (ADR) Romulus Finance S.R.L. (Rome Airport) 251 BB Autovia de la Mancha, S.A. 145 BB+ Alte Liebe I Limited (Wind Farm) 91 BB Metropolitano de Porto Lease and Sublease of Railroad Equipment 57 B+ Total 2,254$ Total 6,312$ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 26

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 5) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million Net Par Internal Current Credit 60+ Day Name or description Outstanding Rating Enhancement Delinquencies U.S. structured finance: U.S. RMBS: Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 752$ CCC 0.0% 32.4% MABS 2007-NCW 539 BB 27.3% 62.9% Countrywide HELOC 2006-I 407 CCC 0.0% 6.6% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 396 BB 14.4% 29.0% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 392 BB 17.4% 29.7% MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 381 B 7.9% 18.8% Option One 2007-FXD2 366 CCC 13.6% 29.5% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 358 B 3.1% 22.8% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 354 CCC 14.8% 30.9% Countrywide HELOC 2006-F (includes $102.9 million purchased, 37% owned)1 338 CCC 0.0% 17.0% MASTR 2007-3 (NEGAM) 334 CCC 0.0% 53.4% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 321 BB 6.1% 34.8% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 320 BB 16.7% 28.0% Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1 (includes $0.7 million purchased, 1% owned)1 313 CCC 0.0% 41.5% AAA Trust 2007-2 (includes $103.1 million purchased, 100% owned)1 292 CCC 22.2% 44.1% Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D 258 CCC 0.0% 7.9% Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J 257 CCC 0.0% 15.8% Countrywide HELOC 2005-D 249 CCC 0.0% 11.8% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-12SL (includes $253.9 million purchased, 100% owned)1 245 B 0.0% 10.8% Countrywide HELOC 2007-A (includes $19.9 million purchased, 8% owned)1 216 CCC 0.0% 7.4% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-1SL (includes $209.9 million purchased, 100% owned)1 202 B 0.0% 9.2% GMACM 2004-HE3 196 B 0.0% 0.0% Countrywide HELOC 2007-B 195 CCC 0.0% 5.4% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-10SL (includes $142.8 million purchased, 73% owned)1 189 CCC 0.0% 8.9% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 188 BB 25.2% 34.8% Soundview 2007-WMC1 184 CCC 0.4% 68.2% FHABS 2007-HE1 HELOC 164 BB 0.0% 1.5% MARM 2007-1 (FKA MASTR 2007-OA1) (includes $1.1 million purchased, 1% owned)1 156 CCC 0.0% 36.9% New Century 2005-A 156 CCC 19.4% 33.2% IndyMac 2007-H1 HELOC 155 CCC 0.0% 8.5% Renaissance (DELTA) 2007-3 (includes $62.5 million purchased, 94% owned)1 146 CCC 13.7% 32.0% FHABS 2006-HE2 HELOC 143 BB 0.0% 4.1% CSAB 2006-3 125 CCC 0.0% 46.0% Legacy Re (DB Captive) 120 CCC 18.6% 37.5% Countrywide HELOC 2005-C 119 CCC 0.0% 10.5% Lehman Excess Trust 2007-16N 110 CCC 0.8% 44.7% Taylor Bean & Whitaker 2007-2 (includes $25.5 million purchased, 53% owned)1 91 CCC 0.0% 23.3% FlagStar HELOC 2005-1 86 BB 22.9% 3.8% FlagStar HELOC 2006-2 84 CCC 25.1% 3.3% CSAB 2006-2 (includes $10.7 million purchased, 33% owned)1 81 CCC 0.0% 40.8% MASTR Asset-Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2 80 CCC 1.1% 31.3% Deutsche Alt-B 2006-AB1 80 B 0.0% 27.7% Soundview Home Loan Trust 2008-1 79 B 26.6% 31.7% American Home Mortgage Assets Trust 2007-4 79 CCC 0.0% 37.4% NAAC 2007-S2 (includes $2.1 million purchased, 3% owned)1 68 CCC 0.0% 11.4% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-16HE 63 CCC 2.2% 24.6% CSMC 2007-3 63 CCC 0.0% 33.3% CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 62 B 3.4% 47.5% ACE 2007-SL1 60 CCC 0.0% 9.9% Countrywide HELOC 2006-H (includes $21.3 million purchased, 24% owned)1 58 CCC 0.0% 17.4% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-6ALT (includes $50.2 million purchased, 60% owned)1 57 CCC 0.0% 50.2% Harborview 2006-12 (NEGAM) 56 CCC 2.0% 58.4% IndyMac IMSC Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-HOA1 55 CCC 0.0% 44.3% CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1 (includes $10.7 million purchased, 32% owned)1 54 CCC 0.0% 34.4% Harborview 2006-10 (NEGAM) 50 CCC 0.0% 27.4% Total U.S. RMBS 10,942$ 1. Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 27

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (5 of 5) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million (continued) Net Par Internal Current Credit Name or description Outstanding Rating Enhancement U.S. structured finance: Other: Taberna Preferred Funding IV, LTD. 292$ CCC 24.0% Taberna Preferred Funding III, LTD. 287 CCC 15.9% Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, LTD. 256 B 5.5% Taberna Preferred Funding II, LTD. 220 CCC 22.6% Attentus CDO I Limited 218 BB 32.1% Alesco Preferred Funding XVII, LTD. 202 B 15.2% Trapeza CDO XI 194 BB- 31.0% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 160 CCC 3.9% Taberna Preferred Funding VI, LTD. 152 CCC 18.3% Trapeza CDO X, LTD. 147 BB- 34.2% Preferred Term Securities XIX, LTD. 145 BB+ 30.5% Alesco Preferred Funding VI 144 BB+ 30.0% US Capital Funding IV, LTD. 144 B- 13.5% Weinstein Film Securitization 143 CCC N/A Alesco Preferred Funding VII 131 BB+ 31.6% NRG Peaker (includes $209.8 million of bonds, 100% owned)1 2 130 CCC N/A Taberna Preferred Funding VIII, LTD. 118 BB 45.3% Preferred Term Securities XVI, LTD. 117 B 23.5% Taberna Preferred Funding VIII, LTD. 113 BB 45.3% Private Other Non-Municipal Transaction (includes $123.7 million purchased, 100% owned)1 110 CCC N/A America West Airlines Series 2000-1 G-1 83 BB N/A National Collegiate Trust Series 2007-4 82 CCC 0.0% Conseco Finance Manufactured Housing Series 2001-2 79 B 15.6% National Collegiate Trust Series 2007-3 69 CCC 0.0% CAPCO - Excess SIPC Excess of Loss Reinsurance 63 BB N/A GreenPoint 2000-4 62 CCC 8.9% Preferred Term Securities XVIII, LTD. 59 BB 32.5% Preferred Term Securities XX, LTD. 52 BB 27.1% Total other 3,972$ Total 14,914$ Non-U.S. structured finance: Ballantyne Re Plc (includes $106.4 million purchased, 21% owned)1 500$ CC N/A Orkney Re II, Plc 423 CCC N/A Gleneagles Funding LTD. (1st Issue) 374 BB N/A FHB 8.95% 2016 126 BB+ N/A Augusta Funding Limited 07 Perpetual Note Issue 81 BB N/A Augusta Funding Limited 05 Perpetual Note Issue 81 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 80 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 64 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 56 BB N/A Total 1,785$ Total 16,699$ 1. Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. 2. Net par shown is net of $80.2 million of ceded par. The Company owns 100% of the collateral in the insured transaction. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 28

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4) As of March 31, 2012 (in millions) 50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating New Jersey (State of) 4,348$ A+ California (State of) 3,416 BBB+ New York (City of) New York 3,400 AA Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) 2,985 AA Chicago (City of) Illinois 2,769 AA- New York (State of) 2,668 AA- Port Authority of New York and New Jersey 2,489 AA- Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport 2,444 A New York MTA Transportation Authority 2,443 A Los Angeles California Unified School District 2,370 AA- Wisconsin (State of) 2,338 AA- Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation - Commonwealth Appropriation 2,258 BBB- Illinois (State of) 2,210 BBB Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) State Sales Tax 2,173 AA Houston Texas Water and Sewer Authority 2,129 AA+ Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of) 2,089 AA University of California Board of Regents 1,965 AA- Washington (State of) 1,948 AA- Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania 1,864 BBB- Los Angeles California Department of Water & Power - Electric Revenue Bonds 1,817 AA- Long Island Power Authority 1,729 A- New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority 1,726 AA+ Michigan (State of) 1,687 A+ New Jersey Turnpike Authority 1,680 A- Chicago-O'Hare International Airport 1,626 A Illinois Toll Highway Authority 1,571 AA Miami-Dade County Florida School Board 1,549 A- Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources 1,535 AA Arizona (State of) 1,530 A+ Chicago Illinois Public Schools 1,431 A+ Atlanta Georgia Water & Sewer System 1,422 BBB+ Metro Washington Airport Authority 1,405 A+ Philadelphia Pennsylvania School District 1,319 A New York State Thruway - Highway Trust Fund 1,317 AA- Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority 1,288 BBB Kentucky (Commonwealth of) 1,227 A+ Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority, Florida 1,188 A+ Broward County Florida School Board 1,173 A+ District of Columbia 1,163 A+ California State University System Trustee 1,152 A+ Connecticut (State of) 1,150 AA+ Georgia Board of Regents Revenue Stream 1,150 A Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority 1,142 A- Detroit Michigan Sewer 1,117 BBB+ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission 1,104 A+ Skyway Concession Company LLC 1,086 BB North Texas Tollway Authority 1,072 A Hawaii (State of) Department of Hawaiian Home Lands 1,043 AA San Francisco Airports Commission 1,028 A+ New York State Thruway Authority 1,021 A+ Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures 89,754$ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 29

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4) As of March 31, 2012 (dollars in millions) 50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures Net Par Internal Credit Credit name: Outstanding Rating Enhancement Fortress Credit Opportunities I, LP. 1,328$ AA 31.1% Stone Tower Credit Funding 1,254 AAA 33.1% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 1,189 AAA 13.3% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 978 AAA 40.9% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 768 Super Senior 14.8% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 763 Super Senior 29.0% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 752 CCC 0.0% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 745 Super Senior 28.6% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 734 Super Senior 22.5% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 734 AAA 38.3% Mizuho II Synthetic CDO 718 A 0.0% Private Consumer Receivable Transaction 700 Super Senior 53.4% 280 Funding I 660 AAA 38.2% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 655 AAA 16.5% ARES Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund 559 AAA 32.1% MABS 2007-NCW 539 BB 27.3% Eastland CLO, LTD. 532 Super Senior 39.6% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 516 Super Senior 14.3% Denali CLO VII, LTD. 497 AAA 19.7% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 496 AAA 46.7% Shenandoah Trust Capital I Term Securities 484 A+ N/A Churchill Financial Cayman 467 AAA 35.4% Phoenix CLO II 452 AAA 21.5% SLM Private Credit Student Trust 2007-A 450 BBB 13.0% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 432 AAA 28.9% LIICA Holdings, LLC 427 AA N/A KKR Financial CLO 2007-1 409 AAA 51.2% Countrywide HELOC 2006-I 407 CCC 0.0% Grayson CLO 399 Super Senior 30.1% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 396 BB 14.4% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 394 Super Senior 34.6% SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2007-6 392 AAA 3.9% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 392 BB 17.4% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 384 AAA 29.3% MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 382 B 7.9% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 380 Super Senior 29.2% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 374 Super Senior 14.2% ARES Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund 369 AAA 32.1% Option One 2007-FXD2 366 CCC 13.6% Symphony Credit Opportunities Fund 364 AAA 28.6% Stone Tower CLO V 362 Super Senior 28.8% Southfork CLO LTD. Series 2005-A1 359 AAA 31.1% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 358 B 3.1% SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006-C 356 BBB 11.7% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 354 CCC 14.8% MUIR GROVE CLO 345 AAA 21.7% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 343 AAA 17.0% CENTURION CDO 9 340 AAA 23.1% Countrywide HELOC 2006-F (includes $102.9 million purchased, 37% owned)1 338 CCC 0.0% Private Other Structured Finance Transaction 335 A- N/A Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures 26,727$ 1. Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 30

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4) As of March 31, 2012 (in millions) 25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating Quebec Province 2,429$ A+ Thames Water Utility Finance PLC 1,597 A- Sydney Airport Finance Company 1,573 BBB Fortress Credit Investments I 1,013 AAA Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC 936 BBB Southern Gas Networks PLC 848 BBB International AAA Sovereign Debt Synthetic CDO 821 AAA Campania Region - Healthcare receivable 762 BBB+ Societe des Autoroutes du Nord et de l'est de France S.A. 756 BBB+ Capital Hospitals (Issuer) PLC 739 BBB- Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II 731 Super Senior United Utilities Water PLC 724 BBB+ Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited 692 BB Southern Water Services Limited 688 A- International Infrastructure Pool 684 A- International Infrastructure Pool 684 A- International Infrastructure Pool 684 A- Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency 669 AA ETSA Utility Finance Pty. Limited 583 A- DBNGP Finance Co Pty. Ltd Note Issue 1 & 2 572 BBB- Envestra Limited 554 BBB- Central Nottinghamshire Hospitals PLC 549 BBB Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 548 Super Senior Powercor Australia LLC 536 A- NewHospitals (St Helens & Knowsley) Finance PLC 501 AA- Total top 25 non-U.S. exposures 20,873$ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 31

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4) As of March 31, 2012 (in millions) 10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures Net Par Servicer: Outstanding Bank of America, N.A.¹ 6,160$ Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. 2,374 American Home Mortgage Servicing, Inc. 2,271 Ally Financial, Inc.² 1,831 Specialized Loan Servicing LLC 1,573 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC 1,270 JPMorgan Chase Bank 1,245 Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc. 1,039 OneWest Bank Group LLC 589 First Horizon National Corporation 327 Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicers exposures 18,679$ 10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating State CHRISTUS Health 467$ A+ TX MultiCare Health System 446 A+ WA Methodist Healthcare, TN 375 A TN Hospital Sisters Health Services Inc Obligated Group 345 AA- IL Catholic Health System 341 A+ OH Iowa Health System 321 A+ IA Carolina HealthCare System 319 AA- NC Lehigh Valley Health Network 318 A+ PA Bon Secours Health System Obligated Group 318 A- MD Virtua Health - New Jersey 315 A NJ Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures 3,565$ 1. Includes Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP. 2. Includes GMAC Mortgage LLC, Residential Funding Corp and Homecomings Financial Network, Inc. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 32

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid (in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 Net Expected Loss to be Paid as of Economic Loss Development (Paid) Recovered Losses Net Expected Loss to be Paid as of Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives December 31, 2011 During 1Q-12 1 During 1Q-12 March 31, 2012 U.S. RMBS First lien: Prime first lien 1.8$ 0.4$ -$ 2.2$ Alt-A first lien 294.5 (1.3) (25.0) 268.2 Option ARMs 210.4 (2.2) (89.3) 118.9 Subprime first lien 241.3 15.6 (9.1) 247.8 Total first lien 748.0 12.5 (123.4) 637.1 Second lien: Closed end seconds (86.1) (2.9) (12.2) (101.2) HELOC (31.1) 7.6 (19.0) (42.5) Total second lien (117.2) 4.7 (31.2) (143.7) Total U.S. RMBS 630.8 17.2 (154.6) 493.4 TruPS 64.2 (4.4) (1.6) 58.2 Other structured finance 342.1 (22.4) (24.4) 295.3 Public finance 66.9 221.4 47.8 336.1 1,104.0$ 211.8$ (132.8)$ 1,183.0$ Total 1 Includes the effect of changes in the Company's estimate of future recovery on representations and warranties ("R&W"). Page 33

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development (dollars in millions) Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 R&W R&W Future Net R&W Economic Recovered Future Net R&W Benefit at Loss Development During Benefit at December 31, 2011 During 1Q-12 During 1Q-12 March 31, 2012 Financial guaranty insurance: Prime first lien 3.0$ 0.6$ -$ 3.6$ Alt-A first lien 202.7 9.4 (1.0) 211.1 Option ARMs 713.9 27.5 (17.6) 723.8 Subprime first lien 1 101.5 (5.1) - 96.4 Closed end seconds 223.8 (2.2) - 221.6 HELOC 189.9 2.2 (51.0) 141.1 Total 1,434.8$ 32.4$ (69.6)$ 1,397.6$ Credit derivatives 215.0$ 18.4$ -$ 233.4$ Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Policies With R&W Benefit Number of Risks as of Debt Service as of March 31, 2012 December 31, 2011 March 31, 2012 December 31, 2011 Financial guaranty insurance: Prime first lien 1 1 40.5$ 41.9$ Alt-A first lien 21 22 1,670.0 1,732.6 Option ARMs 11 12 1,337.6 1,459.7 Subprime first lien 1 5 5 825.7 905.8 Closed end seconds 4 4 262.8 361.4 HELOC 7 15 731.2 2,978.5 Total 49 59 4,867.8$ 7,479.9$ Credit derivatives 8 8 3,434.5$ 3,322.0$ 1. Includes net interest margin. Page 34

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Losses Incurred As of March 31, 2012 (in millions) Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions 1 1Q-12 Losses Incurred Net Reserve and Credit Impairment Net Salvage and Subrogation Assets Net Expected Loss to be Expensed Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS First lien: Prime first lien 525.4$ 0.4$ 1.6$ -$ 0.6$ Alt-A first lien 4,171.5 (2.4) 177.0 57.1 135.5 Option ARMs 1,463.1 51.6 181.3 147.6 142.4 Subprime first lien 2 2,451.3 13.4 154.3 0.2 86.9 Total first lien 8,611.3 63.0 514.2 204.9 365.4 Second lien: Closed end seconds 996.7 (2.7) (2.4) 139.8 98.2 HELOC 3,116.9 15.1 53.7 186.5 158.1 Total second lien 4,113.6 12.4 51.3 326.3 256.3 Total U.S. RMBS 12,724.9 75.4 565.5 531.2 621.7 TruPS 3,091.6 (31.9) 44.8 - 1.9 Other structured finance 3,260.6 (4.9) 265.8 9.8 45.1 Public finance 6,921.4 208.8 362.9 75.6 46.1 25,998.5 247.4 1,239.0 616.6 714.8 Subtotal Effect of consolidating FG VIEs - (2.3) (63.1) (292.2) (211.0) Total 25,998.5 245.1 1,175.9 324.4 503.8 Other - - 1.9 - - Total 25,998.5$ 245.1$ 1,177.8$ 324.4$ 503.8$ Insurance Reserves Credit Impairment on Credit Derivative Contracts 3 Reserve and Credit Impairment Salvage and Subrogation Recoverable Net Gross 954.5$ 392.6$ 1,347.1$ 367.3$ 979.8$ Ceded 152.9 16.4 169.3 42.9 4 126.4 Net 801.6$ 376.2$ 1,177.8$ 324.4$ 853.4$ 1. As of March 31, 2012, securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,384.5 million of gross par outstanding. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $434.6 million in gross par outstanding. 2. Includes net interest margin. 3. Credit derivative assets and liabilities recorded on the balance sheet considers estimates of expected losses. 4. Recorded in "reinsurance balances payable, net" on the consolidated balance sheets. Page 35

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Effect of Adoption of New Accounting Guidance on Acquisition Costs (in millions, except per share amounts) Year Ended December 31, As of and for Three Months Ended March 31, 2011 2011 2010 2009 2008 GAAP Income Statement Data Amortization of deferred acquisition costs (3.7)$ (13.7)$ (11.8)$ (9.7)$ (7.5)$ Other operating expenses 6.0 18.7 26.5 17.2 21.8 Total expenses 2.3 5.0 14.7 7.5 14.3 Income (loss) before income taxes (2.3) (5.0) (14.7) (7.5) (14.3) Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. (1.3) (2.9) (9.2) (4.5) (9.2) Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per diluted share (0.01) (0.02) (0.05) (0.03) (0.10) GAAP Balance Sheet Data Deferred acquisition costs (96.7) (99.5) (94.4) (79.7) (72.2) Shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. (65.4) (66.8) (64.0) (54.8) (50.3) Book value attributable to Assured per share (0.36) (0.37) (0.35) (0.30) (0.56) Non-GAAP Financial Measures 1 Operating income (1.3) (2.9) (9.2) (4.5) (9.2) Operating income per diluted share (0.01) (0.02) (0.05) (0.03) (0.11) Operating shareholders' equity (65.4) (66.8) (64.0) (54.8) (50.3) Operating shareholders' equity per share (0.36) (0.37) (0.35) (0.30) (0.56) 1. The adoption of new accounting guidance on acquisition costs had no effect on adjusted book value and adjusted book value per share. Page 36

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Summary Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Year Ended December 31, As of and for Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 GAAP Summary Income Statement Data Net earned premiums 193.7$ 920.1$ 1,186.7$ 930.4$ 261.4$ Net investment income 97.8 396.1 361.4 262.4 162.6 Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (56.9) 6.0 153.5 163.6 117.6 Total expenses 338.2 789.9 778.9 807.7 455.2 Income (loss) before income taxes (695.6) 1,029.4 534.6 109.4 98.0 Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. (483.0) 772.7 484.5 81.5 59.7 Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per diluted share (2.65) 4.16 2.56 0.63 0.67 GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data Total investments and cash 11,494.2 11,313.3 10,849.3 11,012.5 3,643.6 Total assets 18,504.8 18,024.7 19,777.9 16,724.6 4,505.4 Unearned premium reserve 5,839.2 5,962.8 6,972.9 8,381.0 1,233.7 Loss and LAE reserve 954.5 679.0 574.4 299.7 196.8 Long-term debt 1,034.7 1,038.3 1,052.9 1,066.5 347.2 Shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. 4,182.5 4,651.6 3,669.5 3,454.5 1,875.9 Book value attributable to Assured per share 22.91 25.52 19.97 18.76 20.62 Non-GAAP Financial Measures Operating income 71.2$ 601.5$ 654.9$ 277.7$ 65.3$ Operating income per diluted share 0.38 3.24 3.46 2.15 0.73 Adjusted book value 9,010.3 8,987.6 8,988.9 8,886.9 3,817.8 PVP 56.3 242.7 362.7 640.2 823.0 Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis) Net debt service outstanding (end of period) 858,527$ 845,665$ 927,143$ 958,265$ 348,816$ Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) 917,175 936,132 1,029,982 1,095,037 354,858 Net par outstanding (end of period) 567,098 558,048 617,131 640,422 222,722 Gross par outstanding (end of period) 602,533 614,342 681,248 726,929 227,164 Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis)1 Net debt service outstanding (end of period) 840,182$ 829,545$ 905,131$ 942,193$ 348,816$ Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) 897,596 917,719 1,004,096 1,076,039 354,858 Net par outstanding (end of period) 550,166 543,100 598,843 626,274 222,722 Gross par outstanding (end of period) 584,492 597,290 659,765 709,786 227,164 Consolidated qualified statutory capital 5,666 5,688 4,915 4,841 2,310 Consolidated policyholders' surplus and reserves 10,851 10,626 10,247 10,409 3,652 Ratios: Par insured to statutory capital 97:1 95:1 122:1 129:1 96:1 Capital ratio 2 148:1 146:1 184:1 195:1 151:1 Financial resources ratio 3 64:1 65:1 72:1 72:1 70:1 Gross debt service written: Public finance - U.S. 7,288$ 26,630$ 48,990$ 87,940$ 68,265$ Public finance - non-U.S. - 208 51 894 3,350 Structured finance - U.S. 38 1,731 2,962 2,501 13,972 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - - - 5,490 Total gross debt service written 7,326$ 28,569$ 52,003$ 91,335$ 91,077$ Net debt service written 7,326$ 28,569$ 52,003$ 91,335$ 89,871$ Net par written 4,881 16,892 30,759 49,759 55,418 Gross par written 4,881 16,892 30,759 49,921 56,140 1. Statutory amounts prepared on a consolidated basis. The NAIC Annual Statements for U.S. Domiciled Insurance Subsidiaries are prepared on a stand-alone basis. 2. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital. 3. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources. Note: Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement. Page 37

 


Glossary Net Par Outstanding and Internal Ratings Internal Rating for the Company’s ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized statistical rating organizations; however, the ratings in the tables may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure on its internal rating scale has additional credit enhancement due to either (a) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (b) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point. Net par outstanding is insured par exposure net of reinsurance cessions. Performance Indicators The performance information described below is obtained from sources such as Intex, Bloomberg and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction: 60+ Day Delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned divided by current collateral balance. Average Credit Enhancement is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Cumulative Losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original collateral balance. Pool Factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception. Subordination represents the sum of subordinate tranches and overcollateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size, and does not include any benefit from excess spread collections that may be used to absorb losses. Many of the closed-end second lien RMBS transactions insured by the Company have unique structures whereby the collateral may be written down for losses without a corresponding write-down of the obligations insured by the Company. Many of these transactions are currently undercollateralized, with the principal amount of collateral being less than the principal amount of the obligation insured by the Company. The Company is not required to pay principal shortfalls until legal maturity (rather than making timely principal payments), and takes the undercollateralization into account when estimating expected losses for these transactions. Sectors Below are brief descriptions of selected types of public and structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltds Annual Report on Form 10-K for December 31, 2011. Public Finance: General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds. Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities. Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies. Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges. Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community-based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities. Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution’s revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue. Page 38

 


Glossary (continued) Sectors (continued) Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity. Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities. Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration. Regulated Utilities Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company’s international regulated utility business is conducted in the United Kingdom. Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of CDS obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations. Other Public Finance primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal transactions, which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits. Structured Finance: Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities. These securities are often issued in “tranches,” with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company’s financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (“RMBS”) and Home Equity Securities are obligations backed by closed-end first mortgage loans and closed- and open-end second mortgage loans or home equity loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate (“ARM”) and option adjustable-rate (“Option ARM”) mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including “prime”, “subprime” and “Alt-A”. A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income. Additional insured obligations within RMBS include Home Equity Lines of Credit (“HELOCs”), which refers to a type of residential mortgage-backed transaction backed by second-lien loan collateral consisting of home equity lines of credit. U.S. Prime First Lien is a type of residential mortgage-backed securities transaction backed primarily by prime first-lien loan collateral plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous RMBS transactions. CBOs/CLOs (collateralized bond obligations and collateralized loan obligations) are asset-backed securities largely backed by non-investment grade/high yield collateral. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (“CMBS”) are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multifamily, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties. Financial Products is the guaranteed investment contracts ("GICs") portion of the former Financial Products Business of AGMH. AGM has issued financial guaranty insurance policies on the GICs and in respect of the GICs business that cannot be revoked or cancelled. Assured Guaranty is indemnified against exposure to the former financial products business by Dexia SA and certain of its affiliates. In addition, the French and Belgian governments have issued guaranties in respect of the GICs portion of the financial products business. The financial products business is currently being run off. Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as automobile loans and leases, credit card receivables and other consumer receivables. Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable. Insurance Securitization Securities are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets. Structured Credit Securities include program-wide credit enhancement for commercial paper conduits in the U.S., and securities issued in whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Program-wide credit enhancement generally involves insuring against the default of ABS in a bank-sponsored commercial paper conduit. Securities issued in whole business and intellectual property securitizations are backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property. Other Structured Finance Securities are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories. One such type of asset is a tax benefit to be realized by an investor in one of the Federal or state programs that permit such investor to receive a credit against taxes (such as Federal corporate income tax or state insurance premium tax) for making qualified investments in specified enterprises, typically located in designated low-income areas. Page 39

 


Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company references financial measures that are not in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”). Assured Guaranty’s management and board of directors utilize non-GAAP measures in evaluating the Company’s financial performance and as a basis for determining senior management incentive compensation. By providing these non-GAAP financial measures, investors, analysts and financial news reporters have access to the same information that management reviews internally. In addition, Assured Guaranty’s presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results. The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure and describe why it is useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, if available, is presented within this financial supplement. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be viewed as substitutes for their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Operating Income: Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company’s financial guaranty insurance business, and also includes financing costs and net investment income, and enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results as compared with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile. Trends in the underlying profitability of the Company’s business can be more clearly identified without the fluctuating effects of these transactions. 2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, such adjustments present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules. 3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 4) Elimination of the after-tax foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves. Long-dated receivables constitute a significant portion of the net premium receivable balance and represent the present value of future contractual or expected collections. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange revaluation gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize. 5) Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs. Operating Shareholders’ Equity: Management believes that operating shareholders. equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd. with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a more consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic loss. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders. equity as the principal financial measure for valuing Assured Guaranty Ltds current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell Assured Guaranty Ltds common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use operating shareholders. equity to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy. Operating shareholders. equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders. equity is defined as shareholders. equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. , as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs. 2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 4) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income ("AOCI") (excluding foreign exchange revaluation). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss. Operating return on equity (‘‘Operating ROE’’): Operating ROE represents operating income for a specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders. equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company’s return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use operating ROE to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltds share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis. Page 40

 


Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued) Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues in addition to operating shareholders. equity. The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted book value to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders. equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods. 2) Addition of the after-tax net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below. 3) Addition of the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed. Net expected losses to be expensed are not reflected in GAAP equity. Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. PVP or present value of new business production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives (“Credit Derivative Revenues”) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of insurance and credit derivative contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6%. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. Page 41

 


Contacts: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Equity and Fixed Income Investors: 30 Woodbourne Avenue Robert Tucker Hamilton HM 08 Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Bermuda (212) 339-0861 (441) 279-5705 rtucker@assuredguaranty.com www.assuredguaranty.com Michael Walker Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 261-5575 mwalker@assuredguaranty.com Ross Aron Vice President, Equity Investor Relations (212) 261-5509 raron@assuredguaranty.com Media: Ashweeta Durani Vice President, Corporate Communications (212) 408-6042 adurani@assuredguaranty.com AG_FoCo_logo