FIFTH THIRD BANCORP - FORM 8-K - EX-99.1

Attached files

file	filename
8-K - 8-K - FIFTH THIRD BANCORP	d256644d8k.htm

Exhibit 99.1

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Banking & Financials Conference

Daniel T. Poston

Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

November 16, 2011

Please refer to earnings release dated October 20, 2011 and

10-Q dated November 9, 2011 for further information

Well-positioned for success and leadership in new banking landscape

Key themes

A foundation of continued robust results

Capital

–

exceeds required and targeted levels

—

Tier

common*

capital

~500bps

$4.6bn

from

4Q08

—

Capital base transformed through series of capital actions

–

~9.8% pro forma

Tier 1 common ratio* on a fully-phased in

Basel III-adjusted basis

—

Capital levels supplemented by strong reserve levels

–

Loan loss reserves 3.08% of loans and 158% of NPLs

Credit

–

ongoing steady improvement

—

Broad-based improvements in problem loans

–

72% reduction in 90+ day delinquent loans since 3Q09

–

NCO ratio of 1.32%, lowest level since 1Q08

–

235% PPNR / NCOs*

—

Balance sheet risk lowered through asset sales, resolutions

–

$1.4bn (48%) decline in NPLs since 4Q09

Profitability

–

strong relative and absolute results

—

PPNR* remained stable throughout cycle

—

6 consecutive profitable quarters

—

Return on assets 1.3%

—

Return

average

tangible

common

equity

15%

* Non-GAAP measure; see Reg. G reconciliation on pages 25-27.

Current estimate (non-GAAP), subject to final rule-making and clarification by U.S. banking

regulators; currently assumes unrealized securities gains are included in common equity for

purposes of this calculation

Nonperforming

loans

and

leases

percent

portfolio

loans,

leases

and

other

assets,

including other real estate owned (does not include nonaccrual loans held-for-sale)

Excluding $510mm net charge-offs attributable to credit actions

Environment characterized by low growth

expectations and low interest rates

Potential lower growth and prolonged low-

rate environment

Lower securities reinvestment yields on

portfolio cash flows

Strong deposit flows

Competitive dynamics

Elevated mortgage refinance activity

Firms facing significant litigation related to:

—

Mortgage securitizations

—

GSE repurchases

—

Private label mortgage repurchases

Concerns about European banks and

sovereign debt

Higher capital standards and limitations on

distributions

Continued strong loan production

—

Rates on loan originations have remained

relatively stable

Careful management of liability costs

—

Disciplined pricing on deposits

—

Continued evaluation of term liabilities

including CDs and TruPS

Strong mortgage banking results

Mortgage risks manageable

—

Quarterly mortgage repurchase costs

~$20-25mm and claims inventory declining

—

Total mortgage securitizations outstanding

$28mm

(2003 HELOC) and performing well

No direct European sovereign exposure

—

Total exposure to European peripheral*

borrowers less than $0.2 billion

—

Gross exposure to European banks less than

$0.3 billion

Strong profitability and capital in excess of fully

phased-in Basel III standards today

* Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain

Fifth Third is well-positioned to deal with current environmental challenges

Characteristics of current environment

Fifth Third’s response / position

Diverse revenue stream

•

Business

mix

provides

higher

than

average

diversity

among

spread

and

fee

revenues

—

Current NII lower than normalized levels due to impact of low rate environment (e.g. low cost

deposits including DDAs providing little NII benefit)

•

Added clarity regarding effect of reform on deposit and interchange fees

—

Service charge impact from Reg E in run-rates

—

Initial $30 million per quarter impact of Durbin amendment expected to be mitigated over time (~2/3

by mid-2012); will implement carefully and deliberately

Revenue results remain solid, profitability strong despite sluggish economy

Net interest income

•

Sequential net interest income trends reflect:

–

Growth in C&I, residential mortgage, auto, and bankcard loan balances

–

Higher securities balances

–

Partially offset by lower yields on loans and securities

•

NII up $33mm from 2Q11, down $14mm from 3Q10; NIM +3 bps from 2Q11, -5 bps from 3Q10

•

Yield on interest-earning assets declined 9 bps sequentially and 29 bps year-over-year

–

Effect offset by lower liability costs, down 14 bps from 2Q11 and down 27 bps from 3Q10

–

Expect less asset yield compression and less liability rate improvement over next year

* Represents purchase accounting adjustments included in net interest income.

Selected Yield Analysis

3Q10

2Q11

3Q11

Seq.

(bps)

YoY

(bps)

Commercial and industrial loans

4.81%

4.35%

4.29%

(6)

(52)

Commercial mortgage loans

3.97%

4.00%

3.94%

(6)

(3)

Commercial construction loans

3.06%

3.01%

3.02%

(4)

Residential mortgage loans

4.81%

4.54%

4.47%

(7)

(34)

Home equity

3.99%

3.91%

3.89%

(2)

(10)

Automobile loans

5.71%

4.81%

4.52%

(29)

(119)

Credit card

10.70%

9.91%

9.49%

(42)

(121)

Total loans and leases

4.85%

4.54%

4.48%

(6)

(37)

Taxable securities

4.06%

3.97%

3.88%

(9)

(18)

Tax exempt securities

4.05%

6.41%

5.84%

(57)

179

Other short-term investments

0.36%

0.25%

(11)

Total interest-earning assets

4.57%

4.37%

4.28%

(9)

(29)

Total interest-bearing liabilities

1.13%

1.00%

0.86%

(14)

(27)

Net interest rate spread (FTE)

3.44%

3.37%

3.42%

(2)

Core funded balance sheet and pricing discipline

•

Strong, deposit-rich core funding mix supports

relatively low cost of funds

–

Low reliance on wholesale funding

•

Run-off of high cost CDs (particularly from 2H08)

will benefit NII in 4Q11

–

Incremental $15mm in 4Q11 versus 3Q11

•

Pricing discipline on commercial loans

–

Spreads have narrowed from post-crisis levels

but remain attractive

–

Loan origination rates have stabilized the past

several months

SOURCE: SNL Financial and company reports. Data as of 3Q11

End of period transaction deposits defined as DDA, NOW and Savings/MMDA accounts; Cost of Funds defined as interest incurred on interest-bearing liabilities as a percentage of average noninterest-bearing deposits

and interest-bearing liabilities

Expense discipline

Efficient business model:

•

Efficiency ratio better than most peers through

weak economic environment

–

Reflects below-capacity balance sheet and

lower revenue than we expect and can

support longer term

–

Current impact of credit costs on revenue

and expenses

•

Expenses being managed carefully in response

to revenue environment

–

No net growth over past few years

–

Continuous process of expense evaluation

at Fifth Third

Investment for the future:

•

Sales to support ratio has increased through

careful management of back office and front

office staff

Managing expenses for current revenue environment and long-term franchise value

* Source: Company reports. Data as of 3Q11. Efficiency ratio calculated as reported noninterest expense / (net interest income (fully taxable equivalent)+ noninterest income)

** Sales / support ratio calculated as Sales Headcount (full-time equivalent) / Support Headcount (full-time equivalent)

Disciplined expense management

Strong pre-provision net revenue*

Source: SNL Financial and company reports. Data as of 3Q11.

* Non-GAAP measure. See Reg. G reconciliation on pages 25-27.

** There

are

limitations

the

usefulness

credit-adjusted

PPNR,

including

the

significant

degree

which

changes

credit

and

fair

value

are

integral,

recurring

components

the

Bancorp’s

core

operations

financial institution. This measure has been included herein to facilitate a greater understanding of the Bancorp’s financial condition.

•

PPNR* of $617mm flat from 2Q11 reflecting strong mortgage banking results

•

PPNR* down 19% from 3Q10 driven by lower mortgage banking revenue, the 3Q10 net benefit from

the settlement of BOLI-related litigation, and improved credit costs

•

Adjusted PPNR* of $633mm, including positive adjustments totaling $16mm, up 9% sequentially and

flat year-over-year

Robust pre-provision profitability = strong capacity to absorb losses and

generate capital

Expect ROAA upside longer-term

Third quarter ROA of 1.34% included

—

Provision expense / average loans

of 44 bps

—

$70mm of credit-related costs in

revenue and expense

Elevated credit costs should decline as

conditions normalize

—

Credit-related costs historically of

~$25mm (pre-credit crisis)

—

1997-2006 Average Provision /

Loans of ~50 bps (45 bps average

net charge-off ratio)

—

3Q11 results and historical average

credit results would produce an

ROAA of approximately 1.4%

Long-term target of 1.3 –

1.5% return on assets

Earning asset growth

Mid-50% efficiency ratio long-term

NIM of 3.5-4.0%

Provision of 40-60 bps

Fees / Revenue ~40%

Mitigation of financial reform

Upper end of ROA target range assumes balance sheet growth and normalized rate environment

3Q11

Actual

3Q11

Illustrative*

PPNR ex-credit costs**^

$687

Credit costs

(70)

(25)

PPNR**

617

662

Provision***

(87)

(99)

Pre-tax income

530

563

Taxes***

(149)

(169)

Net Income

381

394

ROAA

1.34%

1.38%

Illustrative ROA calculation using

historical NCO and credit-related costs*

Strong relative credit trends

FITB credit metrics are in line with or better than peers

Strong credit coverage levels

Source: SNL Financial and company reports. Data as of 3Q11. HFI NPAs and NPLs exclude loans held-for-sale and also exclude covered assets for BBT, USB, and ZION

* Non-GAAP measure. See Reg. G reconciliation on pages 25-27.

Reserves and capital levels significant in relation to problem assets

Strong capital position, Basel I and Basel III

Source: SNL Financial, company filings, and third-party estimates. Regulatory financial data as of 3Q11.

* Peers include BAC, BBT, C, CMA, COF, HBAN, JPM, KEY, MTB, PNC,

RF, STI, USB, WFC, ZION

** Non-GAAP measure. See Reg. G reconciliation on pages 25-27.

Fifth Third’s capital position already well in excess of established standards, likely standards, and most peers

Capital management philosophy

* Subject to Board of Directors and regulatory approval

** Comprehensive Capital Adequacy Review by Federal Reserve; proposed future capital actions confidentially submitted

Strong internal capital generation; current long-term Tier 1 common equity target of ~8%

Organic growth opportunities

•

Support growth of core banking franchise

•

Continued loan growth despite sluggish

economy

Return to more normal dividend policy

•

Strong levels of profitability would support

significantly higher dividend than current level

•

Incorporated higher dividends in 1Q11 CCAR**

submission

Strategic opportunities

•

Prudently expand franchise via disciplined

acquisitions or de novos, increasing density in

core markets

•

Expect future acquisition activity although less

likely in near-term

•

Attain top 3 market position in 65% of markets

or more longer term

Repurchases / Redemptions

•

Common shares:

—

Manage excess capital in light of regulatory

environment, other deployment alternatives,

maintenance of buffers over targeted / required

capital levels, and stock price

—

Not included in 1Q11 CCAR** submission

•

Trust preferred shares (TruPS):

—

Potential redemption of certain TruPS included in

1Q11 CCAR

submission

—

Have called $517mm due to regulatory capital

treatment event or on normal call dates

—

Will evaluate remaining TruPS in context of

regulatory developments and desired capital

structure given continued changes in regulations

2012 Annual capital plan

Strong returns drive capital generation

# Non-GAAP measure. See Reg. G reconciliation on pages 25-27.

* 3Q11 annualized

Price as of 11/11/11

Well above average profitability and capital generation, well below average valuation

Well-positioned for the future

•

Holding company cash currently sufficient for more than 2 years of obligations; minimal holding company or Bank

debt maturities until 2013

•

Fifth Third has completely exited all crisis-era government support programs

Superior capital and liquidity position

•

NCOs of 1.3%; 2.4x reserves / annualized NCOs

•

$1.2B problem assets addressed through loan sales and transfer to HFS in 3Q10

•

Substantial reduction in exposure to CRE since 1Q09; relatively low CRE exposure versus peers

Proactive approach to risk management

•

Traditional commercial banking franchise built on customer-oriented localized operating model

•

Strong market share in key markets with focus on further improving density

•

Fee income ~40% of total revenues

Diversified traditional banking platform

•

PPNR^ has remained strong throughout the credit cycle

•

PPNR^ substantially exceeds annual net charge-offs (235% PPNR / NCOs^ in 3Q11)

•

1.3% ROAA; 15% return on average tangible common equity^

Industry leader in earnings power

^ Non-GAAP measure. See Reg. G reconciliation on pages 25-27.

–

Fifth Third is one of the few large banks that have no TLGP-guaranteed debt to refinance in 2012

Cautionary statement

This

report

contains

statements

that

believe

are

“forward-looking

statements”

within

the

meaning

Section

27A

the

Securities

Act

1933, as amended, and Rule 175 promulgated thereunder, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and

Rule 3b-6 promulgated thereunder. These statements relate to our financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future

performance

business.

They

usually

can

identified

the

use

forward-looking

language

such

“will

likely

result,”

“may,”

“are

expected

to,”

“is

anticipated,”

“estimate,”

“forecast,”

“projected,”

“intends

to,”

may

include

other

similar

words

phrases

such

“believes,”

“plans,”

“trend,”

“objective,”

“continue,”

“remain,”

similar

expressions,

future

conditional

verbs

such

“will,”

“would,”

“should,”

“could,”

“might,”

“can,”

or similar verbs. You should not place undue reliance on these statements, as they are subject to risks and

uncertainties,

including

but

not

limited

the

risk

factors

set

forth

our

most

recent

Annual

Report

Form

10-K.

When

considering

these

forward-looking statements, you should keep in mind these risks and uncertainties, as well as any cautionary statements we may make.

Moreover, you should treat these statements as speaking only as of the date they are made and based only on information then actually

known to us.

There are a number of important factors that could cause future results to differ materially from historical performance and these forward-

looking statements. Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to: (1) general economic conditions and

weakening in the economy, specifically the real estate market, either nationally or in the states in which Fifth Third, one or more acquired

entities and/or the combined company do business, are less favorable than expected; (2) deteriorating credit quality; (3) political

developments, wars or other hostilities may disrupt or increase volatility in securities markets or other economic conditions; (4) changes in

the interest rate environment reduce interest margins; (5) prepayment speeds, loan origination and sale volumes, charge-offs and loan

loss provisions; (6) Fifth Third’s ability to maintain required capital levels and adequate sources of funding and liquidity; (7) maintaining

capital requirements may limit Fifth Third’s operations and potential growth; (8) changes and trends in capital markets; (9) problems

encountered

larger

similar

financial

institutions

may

adversely

affect

the

banking

industry

and/or

Fifth

Third;

(10)

competitive

pressures

among

depository

institutions

increase

significantly;

(11)

effects

critical

accounting

policies

and

judgments;

(12)

changes

accounting policies or procedures as may be required by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) or other regulatory agencies;

(13)

legislative

regulatory

changes

actions,

significant

litigation,

adversely

affect

Fifth

Third,

one

acquired

entities

and/or

the

combined

company

the

businesses

which

Fifth

Third,

one

acquired

entities

and/or

the

combined

company

are

engaged,

including the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act; (14) ability to maintain favorable ratings from rating agencies;

(15)

fluctuation

Fifth

Third’s

stock

price;

(16)

ability

attract

and

retain

key

personnel;

(17)

ability

receive

dividends

from

its

subsidiaries;

(18)

potentially

dilutive

effect

future

acquisitions

current

shareholders’

ownership

Fifth

Third;

(19)

effects

accounting or financial results of one or more acquired entities; (20) difficulties in separating Vantiv, LLC, formerly Fifth Third Processing

Solutions

from

Fifth

Third;

(21)

loss

income

from

any

sale

potential

sale

businesses

that

could

have

adverse

effect

Fifth

Third’s earnings and future growth; (22) ability to secure confidential information through the use of computer systems and

telecommunications

networks;

and

(23)

the

impact

reputational

risk

created

these

developments

such

matters

business

generation and retention, funding and liquidity.

You

should

refer

our

periodic

and

current

reports

filed

with

the

Securities

and

Exchange

Commission,

“SEC,”

for

further

information

on other factors, which could cause actual results to be significantly different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking

statements.

Customer-centric traditional banking model:

well-positioned for changed financial landscape

Fifth Third’s business model is driven by traditional banking activities, consistent with

direction of financial reform

—

Dodd-Frank / Basel III do not require substantial changes to Fifth Third’s business

model or asset mix with attendant execution risk

—

Low level of financial system “interconnectedness”

–

International activity primarily related to trade finance and lending to U.S.

subsidiaries of foreign companies

–

(e.g.) Fifth Third loss in Lehman bankruptcy expected to be less

than $2mm

—

Little to no impact from Volcker rule (de minimis market maker in derivatives,

proprietary trading)

–

Daily VaR ~$1mm or less

–

Small private equity portfolio ~$100mm

—

No originations of CDOs, securitizations on behalf of others

—

Didn’t originate or sell subprime mortgages or Option ARMs

—

No mortgage securitizations outstanding (except ~$28mm HELOC from 2003)

Business profile positions Fifth Third well –

today and in the future

No significant

business at Fifth Third impaired during crisis

Liquidity levels elevated in 3Q11

As of 3Q11, readily available borrowing capacity at FHLB:

$6.3B; contingent borrowing capacity at the Fed: $21.2B

—

Executed $2.5B in three-month FHLB borrowings in July

as a precaution to supplement liquidity through the

discussion and resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling limit

Holding Company cash at 9/30/11: $2.1B

Cash currently sufficient to satisfy all fixed obligations

for more than 2 years (debt maturities, common and

preferred dividends, interest and other expenses)

without accessing capital markets; relying on dividends

from subsidiaries; proceeds from asset sales

Expected cash obligations over the next 12 months

—

$25mm debt maturities

—

~$300mm common dividends

—

~$35mm Series G preferred dividends

—

~$459mm interest and other expenses

Bank unsecured debt maturities ($mm –

excl. Brokered CDs)

Heavily core funded

Strong liquidity profile

Mortgage repurchase overview

33% drop in 3Q11 outstanding claims balance driven by

high number of resolutions in quarter

Virtually all sold loans and the majority of new claims

relate to agencies

—

98% of outstanding balance of loans sold

—

Three-quarters

of current quarter outstanding claims

Majority of outstanding balances of the serviced for

others portfolio relates to origination activity in 2009

and later

Private claims and exposure relate to whole loan sales

(no outstanding first mortgage securitizations)

—

Preponderance of private sales prior to 2006

Repurchase Reserves* ($ in millions)

Outstanding Counterparty Claims ($ in millions)

Outstanding Balance of Sold Loans ($ in millions)

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

Beginning balance

103

101

Net reserve additions

Repurchase losses

(29)

(23)

(22)

(31)

Ending balance

103

101

2005 and prior

GSE

GNMA

Private

Total

$7,838

$301

$578

$8,717

2006

1,791

277

2,132

2007

2,911

239

3,244

2008

2,975

729

0.3

3,704

2009 and later

29,971

8,718

38,690

Total

$45,485

$9,907

$1,096

$56,488

Includes reps and warranty reserve ($52mm) and reserve for loans sold with recourse ($17mm)

Troubled debt restructurings overview

Successive improvement in vintage performance during

2008 and 2009 as volume of modification increased

Fifth Third’s mortgage portfolio TDRs have redefaulted

at a lower rate than GSE composites

Of $1.8B in consumer TDRs, $1.6B were on accrual

status and $215mm were nonaccruals

—

$1.1B of TDRs are current and have been on the

books 6 or more months; within that, nearly

$940mm of TDRs are current and have been on

the books for more than a year

As current TDRs season, their default propensity

declines significantly

—

We see much lower defaults on current loans after

a vintage approaches 12 months since

modification

* Fifth Third data includes changes made to align with OCC/OTS methodology (i.e. excludes government loans, closed loans and OREO from calculations)

Commercial

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

Beginning NPL Amount

1,980

1,261

1,214

1,211

1,253

Transfers to nonperforming

522

269

329

340

217

Transfers to performing

(21)

(2)

(10)

Transfers to performing (restructured)

(10)

Transfers to held for sale

(342)

(16)

(15)

Loans sold from portfolio

(5)

(9)

(12)

(7)

Loan paydowns/payoffs

(153)

(111)

(108)

(91)

Transfer to other real estate owned

(92)

(48)

(37)

(39)

Charge-offs

(627)

(170)

(164)

(141)

Draws/other extensions of credit

Ending Commercial NPL

1,261

1,214

1,211

1,253

1,155

Consumer

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

Beginning NPL Amount

549

NPL rollforward

Significant improvement in NPL inflows over past year

Prior period NPL inflows restated to reflect additional detail and with transfers to nonaccrual status presented to reflect gross inflows and charge-offs.

NPL HFI Rollforward

(11)

(1)

(58)

(17)

(77)

(20)

(136)

418

323

466

434

386

Transfers to nonperforming

256

365

232

214

201

Transfers to performing

(45)

(36)

(35)

(34)

(33)

Transfers to performing (restructured)

(29)

(25)

(50)

(41)

(39)

Transfers to held for sale

(205)

Loans sold from portfolio

(1)

(21)

Loan paydowns/payoffs

(37)

(17)

(18)

(27)

Transfer to other real estate owned

(50)

(20)

(18)

(15)

(16)

Charge-offs

(118)

(130)

(144)

(126)

(91)

Draws/other extensions of credit

Ending Consumer NPL

323

466

434

386

383

Total NPL

1,584

1,680

1,645

1,639

1,538

Total new nonaccrual loans -

HFI

778

634

561

554

Non-performing loans

* 3Q10 inflows into NPLs HFS were $217mm, reflecting performing loans moved to held-for-sale in 3Q10 that were deemed impaired as a result of the decision to sell these loans.

Prior period NPL inflows restated to reflect additional detail and with transfers to nonaccrual status presented to reflect gross inflows and charge-offs.

See slide 13 for more information.

Regulation G Non-GAAP reconciliation

$ in millions

(unaudited)

For the Three Months Ended

September

June

March

December

September

June

March

December

2011

2010

2009

Pre-tax Pre-provision Net Revenue:

Income before income taxes (a)

$ 530

$ 506

$ 377

$ 417

$ 303

$ 242

$ (22)

$ (214)

Provision expense (b)

113

168

166

457

325

590

776

Pre-tax, pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) (a) + (b)

617

619

545

583

760

567

568

562

Annualized PPNR (c)

2,448

2,483

2,210

2,313

3,015

2,274

2,304

2,230

Adjustments remove (benefit) / detriment

Securities (gains) / losses

(26)

(6)

(8)

(21)

(4)

(8)

(14)

(2)

Gain on BOLI settlement

(127)

Valuation of 2009 Visa total return swap

Vantiv, LLC warrants & puts

(3)

(29)

(3)

(10)

(20)

Termination of certain borrowings & hedging

transactions

Other litigation reserve expense

Extinguishment (gains) / losses

(6)

(3)

Adjusted PPNR (k)

633

582

545

581

634

552

569

562

Annualized Adjusted PPNR (d)

2,511

2,334

2,210

2,305

2,515

2,214

2,308

2,230

Credit-related items in noninterest income

Gain / (loss) on sale of loans

(1)

Commercial loans HFS FV adjustment

(6)

(9)

(16)

(35)

(9)

(17)

(30)

Gain / (loss) on sale of OREO properties

(21)

(26)

(2)

(19)

(29)

(16)

(21)

(22)

Mortgage repurchase costs

(2)

(0)

(2)

(1)

(4)

(2)

Total credit-related revenue impact (i)

Credit-related items in noninterest expense

Mortgage repurchase expense

Provision for unfunded commitments

(10)

(14)

(16)

(4)

(23)

Derivative valuation adjustments

(0)

(1)

(2)

OREO expense

Attached files

Stock widget

Investing forum