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8-K - FORM 8-K - UNITED AIRLINES, INC.d8k.htm
EX-99.1 - PRESS RELEASE ISSUED BY UNITED CONTINENTAL HOLDINGS, INC. DATED JULY 21, 2011 - UNITED AIRLINES, INC.dex991.htm

Exhibit 99.2

LOGO

Issue Date: Jul. 21, 2011

Investor Update

This investor update provides forward-looking information about United Continental Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “UAL”) for the third quarter and full year 2011. All year-over-year comparisons are based on the pro forma combined company financial statements published in our April 2011 Investor Update which can be found on our website at http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings.com under Investor Updates in the Investor Resources section of the website.

Capacity

The Company estimates third quarter consolidated domestic available seat miles (“ASM”) to be down between 1.0% and 2.0%, consolidated international ASM to be up between 0.5% and 1.5% and consolidated system ASM to be flat to down 1.0% year-over-year. The Company continues to refine its capacity plans in light of the current environment, and has reduced its expectation for full year capacity modestly. The Company now estimates full year consolidated domestic ASM to be down between 2.0% and 3.0%, consolidated international capacity to be up between 2.0% and 3.0% and consolidated system ASMs to be down 0.8% to up 0.2%.

Non-Fuel Expense Guidance

Third quarter consolidated cost per ASM (CASM), excluding fuel, profit sharing, certain accounting charges and merger-related expenses for the Company, is expected to be up 1.0% to 2.0%. For the full year, the Company estimates consolidated CASM, excluding fuel, profit sharing, certain accounting charges and merger-related expenses, will be up 1.0% to 2.0%.

Fuel Expense

The Company estimates its consolidated fuel price, including the impact of settled cash hedges, to be $3.18 per gallon for the third quarter and $3.10 per gallon for the full year based on the forward curve as of Jul. 18, 2011.

Non-Operating Income/(Expense)

Non-operating expense for the Company is estimated to be between $210 million and $220 million for the third quarter and between $920 million and $960 million for the full year. Non-operating income/(expense) includes interest expense, capitalized interest, interest income and other non-operating income/(expense).

Capital Expenditures and Scheduled Debt and Capital Lease Payments

In the third quarter, the Company expects approximately $290 million of gross capital expenditures and $250 million of net capital expenditures, both excluding purchase deposits of $54 million. For the full year, excluding approximately $200 million of purchase deposits, the Company expects gross capital expenditures to be approximately $1.0 billion and net capital expenditures to be approximately $900 million.

Scheduled debt and capital lease payments for the third quarter are estimated to be $0.3 billion. Full year scheduled debt and capital lease payments are estimated to be $2.2 billion. Including all debt pre-payments year-to-date, we expect debt and capital leases payments to be $2.5 billion for 2011.

Pension Expense and Contributions

The Company estimates that its non-cash pension expense for the combined company will be approximately $100 million for 2011. This amount excludes non-cash settlement charges related to lump-sum distributions. In July, the Company made $33 million of cash contributions to its tax-qualified defined benefit pension plans for a total of $104 million in year-to-date contributions. The Company has a remaining minimum funding requirement of approximately $42 million for calendar year 2011.

Taxes

The Company currently expects to record minimal cash taxes in 2011.

Advance Booked Seat Factor (Percentage of Available Seats that are Sold)

Compared to the same period last year, for the next six weeks, mainline domestic advance booked seat factor is up 2.7 points, mainline international advance booked seat factor is down 1.4 points, mainline Atlantic advance booked seat factor is down 5.4 points, mainline Pacific advance booked seat factor is down 1.2 points and mainline Latin America advance booked seat factor is up 1.5 points. Regional advance booked seat factor is up 0.7 points.


LOGO

 

Company Outlook

Third Quarter 2011 Operational Outlook

 

         Estimated
3Q 2011
     Year-Over-Year  %
Change

Higher/(Lower)1
    Estimated
Full Year 2011
     Year-Over-Year  %
Change

Higher/(Lower)1
 

Capacity (Million ASM)

            

Mainline Capacity

            

Domestic

       29,404 - 29,706         (2.8%) - (1.8 %)      110,956 - 112,105         (3.4%) - (2.4 %) 

Atlantic

       13,473 - 13,610         (1.4%) - (0.4 %)      49,109 - 49,590           2.2% - 3.2

Pacific

       10,087 - 10,186         1.5% - 2.5     38,096 - 38,475           0.7% - 1.7

Latin America

       4,822 - 4,868           4.5% - 5.5     20,108 - 20,301           4.2% - 5.2

Total Mainline Capacity

       57,786 - 58,370         (1.2%) - (0.2 %)      218,269 - 220,471         (0.8%) - 0.2

Regional2

       8,725 - 8,812           0.3% - 1.3     32,680 - 33,009           (1.1%) - (0.1 %) 

Consolidated Capacity

            

Domestic

       37,724 - 38,109         (2.0%) - (1.0 %)      142,090 - 143,554         (3.0%) - (2.0 %) 

International

       28,787 - 29,073         0.5% - 1.5     108,859 - 109,926         2.0% - 3.0

Total Consolidated Capacity

       66,511 - 67,182         (1.0%) - 0.0     250,949 - 253,480         (0.8%) - 0.2

Traffic (Million RPM)

            

Mainline Traffic

    

 

Traffic guidance to be provided at future date

  

Domestic

    

Atlantic

    

Pacific

    

Latin America

    

Total Mainline System Traffic

    

Regional System Traffic2

    

Consolidated System Traffic

    

Domestic System

    

International System

    

Total Consolidated System Traffic

    
       

Load Factor

            

Mainline Load Factor

    

 

Load factor guidance to be provided at future date

  

Domestic

    

Atlantic

    

Pacific

    

Latin America

    

Total Mainline Load Factor

    

Regional Load Factor2

    

Consolidated Load Factor

    

Domestic

    

International

    

Total Consolidated Load Factor

                                    

 

1. Year-over-year comparisons to 2010 pro forma operating statistics for United Airlines and Continental Airlines
2. Regional results reflect flights operated under capacity purchase agreements and flights operated as part of our joint venture with Aer Lingus.

 

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LOGO

 

Company Outlook

Third Quarter 2011 Financial Outlook

 

         Estimated
3Q 2011
    Year-Over-Year %
Change
Higher/(Lower)1
    Estimated
FY 2011
    Year-Over-Year %
Change
Higher/(Lower)1
 

Revenue (¢/ASM, except Cargo and Other Revenue)

          

Mainline Passenger Unit Revenue

       Revenue guidance to be provided at future date   

Regional Passenger Unit Revenue

    

Consolidated Passenger Unit Revenue

    

Cargo and Other Revenue ($M)

    

Operating Expense2 (¢/ASM)

          

Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing

       12.61 - 12.69        12.1% - 12.8     12.77 - 12.85        10.5% - 11.2

Regional Unit Cost

       18.76 - 18.84        10.0% - 10.5     19.41 - 19.49        10.8% - 11.2

Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing

       13.42 - 13.50        11.8% - 12.4     13.63 - 13.71        10.5% - 11.1

Non-Fuel Expense2 (¢/ASM)

          

Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Fuel and Profit Sharing

       7.82 - 7.90        1.3% - 2.3     8.17 - 8.25        1.5% - 2.5

Regional Unit Cost Excluding Fuel

       11.63 - 11.71        (1.0%) - (0.3 %)      11.93 - 12.01        (1.3%) - (0.6 %) 

Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Fuel and Profit Sharing

       8.32 - 8.40        1.0% - 2.0     8.66 - 8.74        1.0% - 2.0

Select Expense Measures ($M)

          

Aircraft Rent

       $255          $1,010     

Depreciation and Amortization

       $400          $1,560     

Fuel Expense

          

Mainline Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

       880          3,300     

Regional Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

       190          740     

Consolidated Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

       1,070          4,040     

Consolidated Fuel Price Excluding Hedges

     $ 3.26 / Gallon        $ 3.22 / Gallon     

Consolidated Fuel Price Including Cash Settled Hedges

     $ 3.18 / Gallon        $ 3.10 / Gallon     

Non-Operating Income/(Expense) ($M)

     ($ 210) - ($220     ($ 920) - ($960  

Income Taxes ($M)

          

Income Tax Rate

       0       0  

Capital Expenditures ($M)

          

Gross Capital Expenditures ex Purchase Deposits

       $290          $1,000     

Net Capital Expenditures ex Purchase Deposits

       $250          $900     

Purchase Deposits

       $54          $200     

Debt and Capital Lease Obligations ($B)

          

Scheduled Debt and Capital Lease Obligations 3

       $0.3          $2.2     

 

 

1. Year-over-year comparisons to 2010 pro forma financials for UAL
2. Excludes special items

 

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Company Outlook

Fuel Hedge Positions by Quarter

As of Jul. 18, 2011, the Company had hedged approximately 51% of its remaining 2011 expected consolidated fuel consumption; further details are as follows:

 

          3Q 2011      4Q 2011      1Q 2012      Remaining 2011  
          % of
Expected

Consumption
    Weighted
Average
Strike Price
     % of
Expected

Consumption
    Weighted
Average
Strike Price
     % of
Expected

Consumption
    Weighted
Average

Strike  Price
     % of
Expected

Consumption
    Weighted
Average

Strike  Price
 

WTI Crude Oil Swaps

   ($/bbl)      12   $ 90.43         10   $ 92.03         2   $ 94.43         11   $ 91.14   

Heating Oil Swaps

   ($/gal)      6     2.24         —             —             3     2.24   

Jet Fuel Swaps

   ($/gal)      1     3.14         1     3.14         —             1     3.14   

WTI Crude Oil Call Options

   ($/bbl)      14     96.00         12     98.79         2     99.40         13     97.33   

Heating Oil Call Options

   ($/gal)      6     2.24         1     3.18         8     3.20         4     2.41   

Jet Fuel Call Options

   ($/gal)      5     3.13         2     3.21         —             4     3.15   

Heating Oil Collars

   ($/gal)      15    
 
3.30
-2.63
  
  
     14    
 
3.33
-2.68
  
  
     9    
 
3.27
-2.74
  
  
     15    
 
3.32
-2.65
  
  
                                                                      

Total

        59        40        21        51  
                                                                      

Fuel Price Sensitivity

The table below outlines the company’s estimated settled hedge impacts at various crude oil prices, based on the hedge portfolio as of Jul. 18, 2010:

 

Crude Oil Price*    Cash Settled Hedge Impact ($/gal)    1Q11      2Q11      3Q11     4Q11     FY11  

$120 per Barrel

   Fuel Price Excluding Hedge**    $ 2.94       $ 3.37       $ 3.83      $ 3.87      $ 3.51   
   Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense    $ 0.00       $ 0.00       ($ 0.38   ($ 0.33   ($ 0.29

$110 per Barrel

   Fuel Price Excluding Hedge**    $ 2.94       $ 3.37       $ 3.59      $ 3.63      $ 3.39   
   Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense    $ 0.00       $ 0.00       ($ 0.22   ($ 0.13   ($ 0.20

$100 per Barrel

   Fuel Price Excluding Hedge**    $ 2.94       $ 3.37       $ 3.36      $ 3.40      $ 3.27   
   Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense    $ 0.00       $ 0.00       ($ 0.09   $ 0.03      ($ 0.12

$95.93 per Barrel

   Fuel Price Excluding Hedge**    $ 2.94       $ 3.37       $ 3.26      $ 3.30      $ 3.22   
   Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense    $ 0.00       $ 0.00       $ 0.00      $ 0.00      $ 0.00   

$90 per Barrel

   Fuel Price Excluding Hedge**    $ 2.94       $ 3.37       $ 3.12      $ 3.16      $ 3.15   
   Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense    $ 0.00       $ 0.00       ($ 0.02   $ 0.07      ($ 0.09

$80 per Barrel

   Fuel Price Excluding Hedge**    $ 2.94       $ 3.37       $ 2.88      $ 2.92      $ 3.03   
   Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense    $ 0.00       $ 0.00       $ 0.04      $ 0.14      ($ 0.06

$70 per Barrel

   Fuel Price Excluding Hedge**    $ 2.94       $ 3.37       $ 2.64      $ 2.68      $ 2.91   
   Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense    $ 0.00       $ 0.00       $ 0.12      $ 0.23      ($ 0.02

 

* Projected impacts assume a common, parallel jet fuel refining crack spread consistent with Jul. 18, 2011 forward prices and a parallel crude forward price curve consistent with Jul. 18, 2011 forward prices. Row headings refer to illustrative spot closing prices on Jul. 18, 2011.
** Fuel price per gallon excluding hedge impacts, but including taxes and transportation costs.

 

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LOGO

 

Company Outlook

Share Count

These share count charts are based upon several assumptions including market stock price and number of shares outstanding. The number of shares used in the actual earnings per share calculation will likely be different from those set forth below.

 

     3Q 2011
(Estimated)
 

Net Income

   Basic Share Count
(in millions)
     Diluted Share  Count
(in millions)
     Interest Add-back
(in $ millions)
 

Less than or equal to $0

     330         330       $ —     

$1 million - $36 million

     330         331         —     

$37 million - $61 million

     330         371         4   

$62 million - $111 million

     330         383         7   

$112 million - $371 million

     330         388         8   

$372 million or greater

     330         392         12   
     Full Year 2011
(Estimated)
 

Net Income

   Basic Share Count
(in millions)
     Diluted Share Count
(in millions)
     Interest Add-back
(in $ millions)
 

Less than or equal to $0

     329         329       $ —     

$1 million - $144 million

     329         331         —     

$145 million - $247 million

     329         371         17   

$248 million - $1,096 million

     329         383         26   

$1,097 million - $1,485 million

     329         394         59   

$1,486 million or greater

     329         399         76   

Fleet Plan

As of Jul. 21, 2011, the Company’s fleet plan, including aircraft operated by the Company or on the Company’s behalf under a capacity purchase agreement, is as follows:

 

     Mainline Aircraft  
     YE 2010      1Q 2011 D     2Q 2011 D     3Q 2011D     4Q 2011D     YE 2011      FY YOY D  

B747-400

     25         (1     —          —          (1     23         (2

B777-200

     74         —          —          —          —          74         —     

B767-200/300/400

     61         —          (1     (1     —          59         (2

B757-200/300

     158         —          —          (1     —          157         (1

B737-500/700/800/900

     240         1        (1     (2     —          238         (2

A319/A320

     152         —          —          —          —          152         —     
                                                          

Total Mainline Aircraft

     710         —          (2     (4     (1     703         (7
     Regional Aircraft  
     YE 2010      1Q 2011 D     2Q 2011 D     3Q 2011D     4Q 2011D     YE 2011      FY YOY D  

Q400

     20         6        3        1        —          30         10   

Q300

     —           —          4        1        —          5         5   

Q200

     16         —          —          —          —          16         —     

ERJ-145

     273         3        (9     (1     —          266         (7

CRJ200

     81         (2     —          —          —          79         (2

CRJ700

     115         —          —          —          —          115         —     

EMB 120

     9         —          —          —          —          9         —     

EMB 170

     38         —          —          —          —          38         —     
                                                          

Total Regional Aircraft

     552         7        (2     1        —          558         6   

Total Aircraft

     1,262         7        (4     (3     (1     1,261         (1

 

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Company Outlook

Non-GAAP To GAAP Reconciliations

Pursuant to SEC Regulation G, the Company has included the following reconciliation of reported non-GAAP financial measures to comparable financial measures reported on a GAAP basis. The Company believes that excluding fuel costs and certain other items from some measures is useful to investors because it provides an additional measure of management’s performance excluding the effects of a significant cost item over which management has limited influence, and the effects of certain other items that would otherwise make analysis of the Company’s operating performance more difficult.

 

     3Q 2011 Estimate     FY 2011 Estimate  
Mainline operating expense per ASM – CASM (cents)    Low     High     Low     High  

Mainline operating expense excluding profit sharing

     12.61        12.69        12.77        12.85   

Special items and other exclusions (a)

     —          —          —          —     
                                

Mainline operating expense excluding profit sharing and special items (b)

     12.61        12.69        12.77        12.85   

Less: fuel expense (c)

     (4.79     (4.79     (4.60     (4.60
                                

Mainline operating expense excluding fuel, profit sharing and special
items (c)

     7.82        7.90        8.17        8.25   
Regional expense per ASM – CASM (cents)    Low     High     Low     High  

Regional operating expense

     18.76        18.84        19.41        19.49   

Less: Regional fuel expense

     (7.13     (7.13     (7.48     (7.48
                                

Regional CASM excluding fuel

     11.63        11.71        11.93        12.01   
Consolidated operating expense per ASM – CASM (cents)    Low     High     Low     High  

Consolidated operating expense excluding profit sharing

     13.42        13.50        13.63        13.71   

Special items and other exclusions (a)

     —          —          —          —     
                                

Consolidated operating expense excluding profit sharing and special
items (b)

     13.42        13.50        13.63        13.71   

Less: fuel expense (c)

     (5.10     (5.10     (4.97     (4.97
                                

Consolidated expense excluding fuel, profit sharing and special items (c)

     8.32        8.40        8.66        8.74   

 

(a) Operating expense per ASM – CASM excludes special items, the impact of certain primarily non-cash impairment, severance and other similar accounting charges. While the Company anticipates that it will record such special items and charges throughout the year and may record profit sharing, at this time the Company is unable to provide an estimate of these items with reasonable certainty.
(b) These financial measures provide management and investors the ability to measure and monitor the Company’s performance on a consistent basis.
(c) Both the cost and availability of fuel are subject to many economic and political factors and are therefore beyond the Company’s control.

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:

Certain statements included in this investor update are forward-looking and thus reflect our current expectations and beliefs with respect to certain current and future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are and will be subject to many risks and uncertainties relating to our operations and business environment that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Words such as “expects,” “will,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “indicates,” “believes,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Additionally, forward-looking statements include statements which do not relate solely to historical facts, such as statements which identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or uncertainties, or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this investor update are based upon information available to us on the date of this investor update. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; our ability to execute our operational plans; our ability to control our costs, including realizing benefits from our resource optimization efforts, cost reduction initiatives and fleet replacement programs; our ability to utilize our net operating losses; our ability to attract and retain customers; demand for transportation in the markets in which we operate; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; demand for travel and the impact that global economic conditions have on customer travel patterns; excessive taxation and the inability to offset future taxable income; general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices, costs of aviation fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); our ability to cost-effectively hedge against increases in the price of aviation fuel; any potential realized or unrealized gains or losses related to fuel or currency hedging programs; the effects of any hostilities, act of war or terrorist attack; the ability of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; the costs associated with security measures and practices; industry consolidation or changes in airline alliances; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; our capacity decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; U.S. or foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including open skies agreements); labor costs; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of the collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups; any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; weather conditions; the possibility that expected merger synergies will not be realized or will not be realized within the expected time period; and other risks and uncertainties set forth under Item 1A., Risk Factors of our Annual Report on Form 10-K, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the SEC. Consequently, forward-looking statements should not be regarded as representations or warranties by us that such matters will be realized.

 

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For further questions, contact Investor Relations at (312) 997-8610 or investorrelations@united.com

 

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