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8-K - FORM 8-K - JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP | y04469e8vk.htm |
Exhibit 99.1
Investor Update |
Investor Update: January 27, 2011
This investor update provides JetBlues investor guidance for the first quarter ending March
31, 2011 and full year 2011.
Recent Announcements
JetBlue has recently announced service between the following new city pairs:
City Pair | Frequency | Start Date | ||||||
New York, NY (JFK) Marthas Vineyard, MA |
1x Daily | May 26, 2011 | ||||||
Long Beach, CA (LGB) Anchorage, AK |
1x Daily | May 23, 2011 |
Specific details regarding frequency and start dates can be found on JetBlues web site,
www.jetblue.com.
In January 2011, JetBlue revised its accounting treatment of revenue associated with expired
TrueBlue points resulting from the migration to a new customer loyalty program. $6 million of
passenger revenue related to the loyalty program was recorded in 2009. Passenger unit revenues
including the effects of this change, were 8.91 cents, 8.78 cents, 9.12 cents and 9.23 cents for
the first, second, third and fourth quarters of 2009 respectively.
Capacity
First quarter 2011 available seat miles (ASMs) are estimated to increase 1% to 3%
year-over-year. Full year 2011 ASMs are estimated to increase 7% to 9% year-over-year.
JetBlue estimates the following distribution as a percentage of total ASMs by aircraft type:
First Quarter 2011 | Full Year 2011 | |||||
A320
|
E190 | A320 | E190 | |||
85% | 15% | 85% | 15% |
Average stage length is projected to be approximately 1,066 miles during the first quarter of 2011
versus 1,102 miles during the same prior year period and approximately 1,090 miles for the full
year 2011 versus 1,100 miles for the full year 2010.
Operational Outlook
First Quarter | Full Year | |||||||
2011 | 2011 | |||||||
Operating Expense Year-Over-Year Percentage Change |
||||||||
Unit Operating Expense (CASM) |
11% - 13% | 8% - 10% | ||||||
Unit Operating Expense Excluding Fuel (Ex-Fuel CASM) |
3% - 5% | (1%) - 2% | ||||||
Fuel Expense |
||||||||
Estimated Consumption (gallons) |
119 million | 528 million | ||||||
Estimated Fuel Price per Gallon, Net of Hedges * |
$2.84 | $2.89 |
* | Includes fuel taxes |
JetBlue Airways Investor Relations (718) 709-2202 ir@jetblue.com
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Investor Update |
Fuel Hedges
As of January 21, 2011 JetBlues advanced fuel derivative contracts for the next 12 months are
as follows:
Estimated Percentage | ||||||||
Gallons | of Consumption | Price | ||||||
1Q11
|
44 million | 37 | % | 18% in crude call options with the average cap at $92/bbl 11% in crude collars with the average cap at $99/bbl and the average put at $82/bbl 5% in heat collars with the average cap at $2.61/gal and the average put at $2.21/gal 3% in USGC jet fuel swaps at an average of $2.29/gal |
||||
2Q11
|
50 million | 38 | % | 21% in crude call options with the average cap at $93/bbl 10% in crude collars with the average cap at $100/bbl and the average put at $80/bbl 5% in crude 3-way collars with the average purchased call at $100/bbl, the average sold call at $110/bbl and the average put at $85/bbl 2% in USGC jet fuel swaps at an average of $2.32/gal |
||||
3Q11
|
45 million | 31 | % | 18% in crude call options with the average cap at $94/bbl 9% in crude collars with the average cap at $100/bbl and the average put at $80/bbl 4% in crude 3-way collars with the average purchased call at $100/bbl, the average sold call at $110/bbl and the average put at $83/bbl |
||||
4Q11
|
28 million | 21 | % | 7% in crude call options with the average cap at $92/bbl 9% in crude collars with the average cap at $100/bbl and the average put at $81/bbl 5% in crude 3-way collars with the average purchased call at $100/bbl, the average sold call at $110/bbl and the average put at $80/bbl |
Capital Expenditures
(In millions)
(In millions)
First Quarter 2011 | Full Year 2011 | |||||
Aircraft | Non-aircraft | Aircraft | Non-aircraft | |||
$150 | $30 | $390 | $125 |
JetBlue estimates total Other Income (Expense) to be between ($40) and ($45) million in the first
quarter and between ($160) and ($170) million for the full year. JetBlue expects an annual
effective tax rate of approximately 42%. However, the actual tax rate in both first quarter and
full year 2011 could differ due to the non-deductibility of certain items for tax purposes.
JetBlue Airways Investor Relations (718) 709-2202 ir@jetblue.com
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Investor Update |
Aircraft Delivery Schedule
As of December 31, 2010 JetBlues fleet was comprised of 116 Airbus A320 aircraft and 45
EMBRAER 190 aircraft. 109 aircraft were on order from Airbus and Embraer, scheduled for delivery
through 2018, with options to acquire 73 additional aircraft.
Airbus A320 | EMBRAER 190 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Aircraft | Mortgage | Lease | Aircraft | Mortgage | Lease | |||||||||||||||||||
1Q11 |
3 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | | ||||||||||||||||||
2Q11 |
| | | 2 | 2 | | ||||||||||||||||||
3Q11 |
| | | 1 | 1 | | ||||||||||||||||||
4Q11 |
1 | 1 | | 1 | 1 | | ||||||||||||||||||
Total at Year End* |
120 | 90 | 30 | 49 | 19 | 30 |
* | JetBlue leased two of its owned EMBRAER 190 aircraft to a third party in 2008, which are not included in the table above. JetBlue expects to return one EMBRAER 190 leased aircraft in the second quarter of 2011, which is reflected in the table above. |
Share Count
Share count estimates for calculating basic and diluted earnings per share are as follows:
First Quarter 2011 | ||||||||||||
Basic Share Count | Diluted Share Count | Interest Add-back | ||||||||||
Net Income Range | (in millions) | (in millions) | (in millions)** | |||||||||
Zero $11 million |
277.4 | 279.8 | | |||||||||
$11 million $15 million |
277.4 | 307.3 | $ | 1 | ||||||||
$15 million or greater |
277.4 | 348.4 | $ | 3 |
Full Year 2011 | ||||||||||||
Basic Share Count | Diluted Share Count | Interest Add-back | ||||||||||
Net Income Range | (in millions) | (in millions) | (in millions)** | |||||||||
Zero $42 million |
278.6 | 281.5 | | |||||||||
$42 million $58 million |
278.6 | 309.0 | $ | 4 | ||||||||
$58 million or greater |
278.6 | 350.2 | $ | 12 |
** | Net of taxes |
These share count estimates assume 20% annual stock price appreciation and are based on several
other assumptions. The number of shares used in JetBlues actual earnings per share will likely be
different than those stated above.
JetBlue Airways Investor Relations (718) 709-2202 ir@jetblue.com
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Investor Update |
This investor update contains statements of a forward-looking nature which represent our
managements beliefs and assumptions concerning future events. When used in this document and in
documents incorporated herein by reference, the words expects, plans, anticipates,
indicates, believes, forecast, guidance, outlook, may, will, should, seeks,
targets and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on
information currently available to us. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in
the forward-looking statements due to many factors, including, without limitation, our extremely
competitive industry; volatility in financial and credit markets which could affect our ability to
obtain debt and/or lease financing or to raise funds through debt or equity issuances; increases in
fuel prices, maintenance costs and interest rates; our ability to implement our growth strategy,
including the ability to operate reliably the EMBRAER 190 aircraft and our new terminal at JFK; our
significant fixed obligations; our ability to attract and retain qualified personnel and maintain
our culture as we grow; our reliance on high daily aircraft utilization; our dependence on the New
York metropolitan market and the effect of increased congestion in
this market; our reliance on automated systems and technology; our being subject to potential
unionization; our reliance on a limited number of suppliers; changes in or additional government
regulation; changes in our industry due to other airlines financial condition; a continuance of
the economic recessionary conditions in the U.S. or a further economic downturn leading to a
continuing or accelerated decrease in demand for domestic and business air travel; and external
geopolitical events and conditions. Further information concerning these and other factors is
contained in the Companys Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited
to, the Companys 2009 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters
ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2010 and Current Report on Form 8-K filed on January 18,
2011. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or
circumstances that may arise after the date of this update.
JetBlue Airways Investor Relations (718) 709-2202 ir@jetblue.com
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