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8-K - ANR 8-K 06-28-2010 - Alpha Natural Resources, Inc.anr8k06282010.htm
EX-99.2 - EXHIBIT 99.2 ALPHA NATURAL RESOURCES, INC. CONFERENCE PRESENTATION - Alpha Natural Resources, Inc.exhibit992.htm
1
Jefferies 2nd Annual
Boston Energy Day
June 28-29, 2010
Exhibit 99.1
 
 

 
2
Forward Looking Statements
Statements in this presentation which are not statements of historical fact are “forward-looking
statements” within the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. Many factors could cause our actual
results, performance or achievements, or industry results, to be materially different from any future
results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward looking-statements.
These factors are discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on
Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the SEC. We make forward-looking statements based on
currently available information, and we assume no obligation to update the statements made today
or contained in our Annual Report or other filings due to changes in underlying factors, new
information, future developments, or otherwise, except as required by law.
 
 

 
3
ANR: Uniquely Positioned Industry Leader
v Leading U.S. supplier and exporter of metallurgical coal with expertise in
 blending and optimization
v Low-cost, high margin Pittsburgh #8 longwall mines can supply U.S. or
 international markets, including recent ~100K ton met shipment to China
v High volume Powder River Basin surface mines provide relatively stable
 cash flow and reduced operating risk
v Arguably the most regionally diversified producer in the U.S.
v More export terminal capacity than any other U.S. producer
v Positioned for future growth with excellent liquidity, low leverage and a
 portfolio of internal development opportunities
v Board recently approved $125 million share repurchase authorization
v Manageable exposure to Eastern U.S. surface mining and associated
 permit risks
v Focus on consistent execution and positive free cash flow generation
 
 

 
4
Coal Industry Themes - 2010
v Strong met coal pricing continues to be driven
 by growing Asian demand, global recovery,
 and supply disruptions
v Met coal tightness intensified in the United
 States by recent and unexpected loss of high-
 vol production
v Utility inventory levels anticipated to approach
 normal levels in 2H10 - U.S. thermal market
 positioned to strengthen
v Future worldwide demand for thermal coal
 anticipated to strain seaborne supply
 
 

 
5
5
Strong Market Outlook
 
 

 
6
U.S. Thermal Coal Market Improving
 Utility inventories decreased by approximately 40MTs from the 11/09 peak
 Eastern thermal coal production unlikely to expand in 2010 and may decline further
 Economic recovery driving increased industrial electricity demand
 Global recovery and shifting seaborne trading patterns should increase U.S. exports
 Crossover met coal should further constrain available supply in the U.S.
 New coal-fired generation will increase demand
 Current natural gas prices suggest less fuel switching compared with 2009
SOURCE: DOE NETL, Internal Analysis, Genscape
Current inventories of
approximately 170MTs suggest
normal inventories are likely
exiting the summer cooling season
 
 

 
7
China & India Rely on Coal-fired Electricity
2010E: 78% coal-fired
2030E: 75% coal-fired
2010E: 65% coal-fired
2030E: 56% coal-fired
(Indian thermal coal imports have grown at 13% CAGR from 1990 - 2008)
Source:  EIA IEO 2009; Booz & Company analysis
+4%
 
 

 
8
Source: Wood Mackenzie; Booz & Company analysis
China = 14.8% CAGR
ROW = 1.5% CAGR
Scarcity of Metallurgical Coal
Global Steel Production
Metallurgical Coal Pricing (US$)
 As global steel production has grown, metallurgical coal has come to be viewed as a scarce
 and differentiated product
 When worldwide production of steel exceeds 1.3 billion tons, the supply of met coal becomes
 strained and incremental pricing can rise sharply as was seen in 2008
 While new projects are planned in places like Mozambique, Mongolia and Siberia, and
 additional projects are planned in Australia, all must overcome various infrastructure
 limitations or political challenges
 Supply constraints are likely to persist for several years
?
 
 

 
9
China Driving Worldwide Met Demand
Chinese Growth is Permanently Changing Global Seaborne Met Coal Trading Dynamics
 Worldwide steel production is estimated to be on an annual pace of greater than 1.3B tonnes,
 with over 600M tonnes expected from China alone in 2010, despite recent concerns of slowing
 growth near-term
 Met imports reached 34M tonnes in 2009 and YTD 2010 imports through May were 17M tonnes
 Chinese demand will be satisfied primarily by Australia, which is near its current export capacity
 Availability of seaborne coking coal, which totaled an estimated 240M tonnes in 2008, will be
 constrained by the growth of Chinese imports
SOURCE: China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Chinese Customs, Macquarie, Internal Analysis
 
 

 
10
Robust Met Demand in Atlantic Basin
Met Coal Demand in the Atlantic Basin Has Increased As Developed
Economies Have Recovered and Steel Production Ramped Up
* ANR is a leading U.S. supplier & exporter of metallurgical coal with 13-14MTPA export capacity*
 Domestic producers’ rapid response to the recession in 2009 drove U.S. service center inventories to 26-
 yr. lows, despite anemic demand for steel—restocking is now evident
 U.S. steel capacity utilization has increased steadily to the low-70% range, up from ‘09 lows in the 30s
 The rapid increase in capacity utilization and the unexpected loss of high quality high-vol production in the
 U.S. has constrained supply near-term in the domestic market
 Strong Asian demand and increasing steel production in the rest of the world should drive robust met coal
 demand in the Atlantic basin for several years
SOURCE: Metals Service Center Institute, American Iron and Steel Institute, Macquarie, Internal Analysis
 
 

 
 
 

 
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Investment Highlights
 
 

 
13
Diversification/Scale=Consistent Execution
Following our merger on July 31, 2009, Alpha has delivered consistent execution
demonstrating the benefit of the company’s enhanced scale and diversification.
*ANR is arguably the most regionally diversified producer in the U.S. today*
 
 

 
14
Consistent History of Positive Cash Flow
Note: Pro forma capex for 2008 and 2009 includes Lease-By-Application (LBA) bonus bid payments of $36.1 million each year.
FCF = Operating cash flow less capex
 
 

 
15
Excellent Liquidity and Low Leverage
Note: LTM data as of 3/31/10
(1) Revolver was amended and extended by $300mm to $950mm on 4/15/2010, of which $96mm was terminated with a $39.6mm Term Loan A prepayment on 6/4/2010
(2) LTM combined pro forma Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter ended March 31, 2010
 
Leverage of approximately 1.1x debt/Adjusted EBITDA and liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion
($ millions)
Maturity
 
As of 6/18/10
 
 
 
 
 
$854mm Revolving Credit Facility1
July, 2014
 
$0
Term Loan A
July, 2014
 
236
2.375% Convertible Notes
April, 2015
 
288
7.25% Senior Unsecured Bonds
August, 2014
 
298
 
Total Long-term Debt
 
 
$822
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Liquidity and Credit Statistics
 
 
 
Cash & Equivalents and marketable
securities
 
 
$669
Revolver1
 
 
854
Accounts Receivable Securitization Facility
 
 
150
Less: Letters of Credit Outstanding
 
 
(184)
 
Total Potential Liquidity
 
 
$1,489
 
 
 
 
 
Total Debt / LTM EBITDA
 
 
1.1x
 
 
 
 
 
LTM Adjusted EBITDA2
 
 
$773
 
 

 
16
 Maintaining safe and well-capitalized mines is priority #1
 Organic development—moving forward with development of organic met projects, DM #41
 and Freeport; continuing the permitting of the Foundation Pitt #8 longwall mine; evaluating
 other organic development opportunities as market conditions warrant
 Growth through acquisition—systematically evaluating domestic and international
 opportunities to increase shareholder return through disciplined strategic transactions
  Seeking long-term access to growing international met and thermal markets—initial step in
 2010 likely to include establishment of one or more modest sales and development offices
 strategically located to participate in key Asian markets
  Focusing on opportunities to improve Alpha’s met and thermal assets within the U.S., with
 emphasis on low-cost, long-lived production, sustainable end markets and export potential
Strategic Intent & Uses of Cash
Alpha’s strong cash position, excellent liquidity, low leverage and consistent cash flow generation
provides significant flexibility and a unique set of opportunities
Pursuing a balanced strategy of growth through organic development and acquisition with a
disciplined focus on value and return on investment
 
 

 
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 Returning cash to shareholders while retaining the financial flexibility to pursue strategic
 growth opportunities
  $125 million share repurchase authorization recently approved by Alpha’s board
  Approximately $25 million purchased to date at an average price of $36.33 per share
  Repurchases made pursuant to 10b5-1 plan
 Repaying debt and maintaining strong liquidity position—prepaid $40 million of Term Loan A; 
    amended, extended and increased secured credit facility, resulting in total available liquidity of
    approximately $1.5 billion
 Continuing to cultivate Alpha’s valuable Marcellus acreage through Rice Energy JV, potentially
    augmenting and consolidating our footprint in order to optimize development
Strategic Intent & Uses of Cash (cont’d)
Pursuing a balanced strategy of growth through organic development and acquisition with a
disciplined focus on value and return on investment
Alpha’s strong cash position, excellent liquidity, low leverage and consistent cash flow generation
provides significant flexibility and a unique set of opportunities
 
 

 
18
A Leader in the Domestic Coal Industry
Eastern Coal Operations
Illinois Basin
Western Coal Operations
 Production capacity
55.0
 2009 Shipments
50.1
 Reserves
709
 Reserves
26
 Production Capacity
42.0
 2009 Shipments
36.0
 Reserves
1579
Note: Figures pro forma as of 12/31/09
Strength, Scale, Diversification
 
 

 
19
 Alpha’s total export capacity from all US terminals is 13-14 MTPA, providing unique
 blending, storage and transportation advantages
 Alpha holds a 41% interest in Dominion Terminal Associates (DTA): Alpha’s
 estimated proportional export capacity is ~5.5 MTPA
 Alpha controls ~5.0 MT of capacity at Norfolk Southern’s Lamberts Point terminal
 located in Norfolk, VA
 Additional capacity at Chesapeake Bay piers, Gulf of Mexico/New Orleans, and the
 Great Lakes
U.S. Leader in Export Capacity
 
 

 
20
Powder River Basin
Wyoming Operations
Expansion (MM tons/yr)
Capacity
Truck/shovel expansion
10
65 MTPY
Belle Ayr LBA
200 Million Tons
Late 2010
Central Appalachia
Mine
Resource Description
Production
Deep Mine #41
~ 70 MM Ton Reserve
1.0 - 1.2 MTPY (metallurgical)
Harts Creek/Atenville
~ 120 MM Ton Reserve
2 - 3 MTPY (metallurgical potential)
Northern Appalachia
Mine
Resource Description
Production
Freeport - CM
~ 68 MM Ton Reserve
3 MTPY (metallurgical)
Foundation - longwall
~ 420 MM Ton Reserve
7 - 14 MTPY Pitt #8 (+ Sewickley)
Unconventional Gas
Project
Resource Description
Production
CBM
~ 100-200 Bcf Resource
~ 5,000 Salable Mcf/Day (current)
Marcellus acreage
~ 18,000 Acres
Entered into JV with Rice Energy 2010
Organic Growth Opportunities
 
 

 
21
 50/50 Joint Venture with Rice Energy, LP
 Alpha controls ~18,000 acres of Marcellus in
 Greene and Washington Counties of Pennsylvania
 Initial phase underway, recently drilled the first of
 four wells planned for 2010
 Each partner committing acreage and cash
 Total phase 1 capital anticipated to be less than
 $20 million
 JV potential to develop ~100 wells in the Marcellus
 Separately, Alpha’s CBM gas processing plant
 expanding from capacity of 5,000 MCF/day to
 10,000 MCF/day
Unconventional Gas Development
 
 

 
22
Market Capitalization1 ($ in billions)
LTM 3/31/10 Tons Sold (in millions)
Peer Group Comparisons
 
 

 
23
Recent Valuation Comparison 6/21/10
Notes: Market data and First Call consensus 2011 EBITDA estimates as of 6/21/10, pro forma for the MEE acquisition of Cumberland Resources and
the CNX acquisition of the Dominion gas assets and the remaining 17% of CXG.
< 50 MM TPY, regional
> 50 MM TPY, diversified
> 50 MM TPY, regional
Compelling Relative Valuation
ANR
 
 

 
24
Coal Industry Themes
ü ANR is a leading U.S. supplier and exporter of
 met coal with 13-14MTs of export terminal
 capacity and worldwide customer base
ü ANR is positioned to benefit from the near-
 term shortage of domestic high-vol stemming
 from recent mine closures
ü ANR’s operations in NAPP, CAPP and PRB
 can respond quickly to increasing demand for
 thermal coal in the U.S.
ü Low-cost production and export capacity
 enable ANR to participate in global thermal
 demand growth
v Strong met coal pricing continues to be
 driven by growing Asian demand, global
 recovery, and supply disruptions
v Met coal tightness intensified in the United
 States by recent and unexpected loss of
 high-vol production
v Utility inventory levels anticipated to
 approach normal levels in 2H10 - U.S.
 thermal market positioned to strengthen
v Future worldwide demand for thermal coal
 anticipated to strain seaborne supply
 
 

 
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Appendices
 
 

 
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4Q09 Reconciliation of Adjusted EBIDTA
 
 

 
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4Q09 Reconciliation of Adjusted Income
 
 

 
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1Q10 Reconciliation of Adjusted EBIDTA
 
 

 
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1Q10 Reconciliation of Adjusted Income
 
 

 
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