Attached files
file | filename |
---|---|
S-1 - FORM S-1 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957sv1.htm |
EX-4 - EX-4 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv4.htm |
EX-5 - EX-5 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv5.htm |
EX-2 - EX-2 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv2.htm |
EX-3.1 - EX-3.1 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv3w1.htm |
EX-8.2 - EX-8.2 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv8w2.htm |
EX-1.1 - EX-1.1 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv1w1.htm |
EX-3.2 - EX-3.2 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv3w2.htm |
EX-8.1 - EX-8.1 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv8w1.htm |
EX-99.4 - EX-99.4 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv99w4.htm |
EX-99.1 - EX-99.1 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv99w1.htm |
EX-23.2 - EX-23.2 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv23w2.htm |
EX-23.3 - EX-23.3 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv23w3.htm |
EX-99.5 - EX-99.5 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv99w5.htm |
EX-99.6 - EX-99.6 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv99w6.htm |
EX-99.2 - EX-99.2 - Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | y84957exv99w2.htm |
Exhibit 99.3
PRO FORMA VALUATION REPORT
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC.
Staten Island, New York
Staten Island, New York
PROPOSED HOLDING COMPANY FOR:
NORTHFIELD BANK
Staten Island, New York
NORTHFIELD BANK
Staten Island, New York
Dated As Of:
May 14, 2010
May 14, 2010
Prepared By:
RP® Financial, LC.
1100 North Glebe Road
Suite 1100
Arlington, Virginia 22201
1100 North Glebe Road
Suite 1100
Arlington, Virginia 22201
RP® FINANCIAL, LC.
|
May 14, 2010
Boards of Directors
Northfield Bancorp, MHC
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
Northfield Bank
581 Main Street, Suite 810
Woodbridge, New Jersey 07095
Northfield Bancorp, MHC
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
Northfield Bank
581 Main Street, Suite 810
Woodbridge, New Jersey 07095
Members of the Boards of Directors:
At your request, we have completed and hereby provide an independent appraisal (Appraisal) of the
estimated pro forma market value of the common stock to be issued by newly formed Northfield
Bancorp, Inc., Staten Island, New York (Northfield or the Company) in connection with the
mutual-to-stock conversion of Northfield Bancorp, MHC (the MHC). The MHC currently has a
majority ownership interest in, and its principal asset consists of, approximately 56.4% of the
common stock (the MHC Shares) of the mid-tier holding company for Northfield Bank, Staten Island,
New York (the Bank). The remaining 43.6% of the mid-tier holding companys common stock is owned
by public stockholders. The existing mid-tier holding company, which completed its initial public
stock offering in November 2007, owns 100% of the common stock of the Bank. It is our
understanding that Northfield will offer its stock, representing the majority ownership interest
held by the MHC, in a subscription offering to Eligible Account Holders, Employee Plans,
Supplemental Eligible Account Holders and Other Depositors. To the extent that shares remain
available for purchase after satisfaction of all subscriptions received in the subscription
offering, the shares may be offered for sale in a community offering, to Northfields public
stockholders, and a syndicated offering to the public at large. Upon completing the
mutual-to-stock conversion and stock offering (the second-step conversion), the Company will be
100% owned by public shareholders, the publicly-held shares of the mid-tier holding company will be
exchanged for shares in the Company at a ratio that retains their ownership interest at the time
the conversion is completed and the MHC assets will be consolidated with the Company.
This Appraisal is furnished pursuant to the requirements of the Code of Federal Regulations
563b.7 and has been prepared in accordance with the Guidelines for Appraisal Reports for the
Valuation of Savings and Loan Associations Converting from Mutual to Stock Form of Organization of
the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), which have been adopted in practice by the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Department of Banking of the Commissioner of Banks
and Real Estate (the Commissioner) of the State of Illinois in the absence of separate written
valuation guidelines.
Washington Headquarters | ||
Three Ballston Plaza | Telephone: (703) 528-1700 | |
1100 North Glebe Road, Suite 1100 | Fax No.: (703) 528-1788 | |
Arlington, VA 22201 | Toll-Free No.: (866) 723-0594 | |
www.rpfinancial.com | E-Mail: mail@rpfinancial.com |
Boards of Directors
May 14, 2010
Page 2
May 14, 2010
Page 2
Plan of Conversion
On June 4, 2010, the respective Boards of Directors of the MHC, the mid-tier holding company
and the Bank adopted a Plan of Conversion and Reorganization of the Mutual Holding Company (the
Plan of Conversion), pursuant to which the MHC will convert to the stock form of organization.
Pursuant to the Plan of Conversion, (i) newly formed Northfield will be organized as a stock
subsidiary of the mid-tier holding company, (ii) the MHC will merge with and into the mid-tier
holding company (the MHC Merger) with the mid-tier holding company being the survivor, and the
MHC Shares will be cancelled; (iii) the mid-tier holding company will merge with the newly formed
Northfield (the Mid-Tier Merger) with Northfield as the resulting entity and Bank becoming a
wholly-owned subsidiary of Northfield; and (iv) immediately after the Mid-Tier Merger, newly formed
Northfield will offer and sell shares of its common stock to certain depositors of the Bank,
residents of Banks community and shareholders of the mid-tier holding company and others in the
manner and subject to the priorities set forth in the Plan of Conversion. The Company will also
issue shares of its common stock to the public stockholders of the mid-tier holding company
pursuant to an exchange ratio that will result in the public shareholders owning the same aggregate
percentage of the newly issued Northfield common stock as owned immediately prior to the
conversion.
RP® Financial, LC.
RP® Financial, LC. (RP Financial) is a financial consulting firm serving the
financial
services industry nationwide that, among other things, specializes in financial valuations and
analyses of business enterprises and securities, including the pro forma valuation for savings
institutions converting from mutual-to-stock form. The background and experience of RP Financial
is detailed in Exhibit V-1. We believe that, except for the fee we will receive for our appraisal,
we are independent of the Company, the Bank, the mid-tier holding company, the MHC and the other
parties engaged by the Bank or the Company to assist in the stock conversion process.
Valuation Methodology
In preparing our Appraisal, we have reviewed the regulatory applications of Northfield, the Bank
and the MHC, including the prospectus as filed with the OTS and the Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC). We have conducted a financial analysis of Northfield, the Bank and the MHC
that has included a review of audited financial information for fiscal years ended December 31,
2005 through 2009, a review of unaudited interim results through March 31, 2010 and due diligence
related discussions with Northfields management; KPMG, the Companys independent auditor; Luse
Gorman Pomerenk & Schick, P.C., Northfields conversion counsel; and Sandler ONeill Partners, the
Companys financial and marketing advisor in connection with the stock offering. All assumptions
and conclusions set forth in the Appraisal were reached independently from such discussions. In
addition, where appropriate, we have considered information based on other available published
sources that we believe are reliable. While we believe the information and data gathered from all
these sources are reliable, we cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of such information.
We have investigated the competitive environment within which Northfield operates and have assessed
Northfields relative strengths and weaknesses. We have kept abreast of the
Boards of Directors
May 14, 2010
Page 3
May 14, 2010
Page 3
changing regulatory
and legislative environment for financial institutions and analyzed the potential impact on
Northfield and the industry as a whole. We have analyzed the potential effects of the stock
conversion on Northfields operating characteristics and financial
performance as they relate to the pro forma market value of Northfield. We have analyzed the
assets held by the MHC, which will be consolidated with Northfields assets and equity pursuant to
the completion of conversion. We have reviewed the economic and demographic characteristics of the
Companys primary market area. We have compared Northfields financial performance and condition
with selected publicly-traded thrifts in accordance with the Valuation Guidelines, as well as all
publicly-traded thrifts and thrift holding companies. We have reviewed the current conditions in
the securities markets in general and the market for thrift stocks in particular, including the
market for existing thrift issues, initial public offerings by thrifts and thrift holding
companies, and second-step conversion offerings. We have excluded from such analyses thrifts
subject to announced or rumored acquisition, and/or institutions that exhibit other unusual
characteristics.
The Appraisal is based on Northfields representation that the information contained in the
regulatory applications and additional information furnished to us by Northfield and its
independent auditor, legal counsel and other authorized agents are truthful, accurate and complete.
We did not independently verify the financial statements and other information provided by
Northfield, or its independent auditor, legal counsel and other authorized agents nor did we
independently value the assets or liabilities of Northfield. The valuation considers Northfield
only as a going concern and should not be considered as an indication of Northfields liquidation
value.
Our appraised value is predicated on a continuation of the current operating environment for
Northfield and for all thrifts and their holding companies. Changes in the local, state and
national economy, the legislative and regulatory environment for financial institutions and mutual
holding companies, the stock market, interest rates, and other external forces (such as natural
disasters or significant world events) may occur from time to time, often with great
unpredictability and may materially impact the value of thrift stocks as a whole or the value of
Northfields stock alone. It is our understanding that there are no current plans for selling
control of Northfield following completion of the second-step stock offering. To the extent that
such factors can be foreseen, they have been factored into our analysis.
The estimated pro forma market value is defined as the price at which Northfields common stock,
immediately upon completion of the second-step stock offering, would change hands between a willing
buyer and a willing seller, neither being under any compulsion to buy or sell and both having
reasonable knowledge of relevant facts.
Valuation Conclusion
It is our opinion that, as of May 14, 2010, the estimated aggregate pro forma valuation of the
shares to be issued in the conversion of the MHC, including: (1) newly-issued shares representing
the MHCs ownership interest in the mid-tier holding company, and (2) exchange shares issued to
existing public shareholders of the mid-tier holding company, was equal to $621,016,110 at the
midpoint, equal to 62,101,611 shares at $10.00 per share. By regulation, the midpoint valuation
defines a range of value including 52,786,369 shares at the minimum and 82,129,380 shares at the
adjusted maximum.
Boards of Directors
May 14, 2010
Page 4
May 14, 2010
Page 4
Establishment of the Exchange Ratio
OTS regulations provide that in a conversion of a mutual holding company, the minority
stockholders are entitled to exchange the public shares for newly issued shares of Northfield stock
as a fully converted company. The Board of Directors of the MHC has independently determined the
exchange ratio. The determined exchange ratio has been designed to preserve the current aggregate
percentage ownership in Northfield equal to 43.64% as of March 31, 2010. The exchange ratio to be
received by the existing minority shareholders of the mid-tier holding company will be determined
at the end of the offering, based on the total number of shares sold in the subscription and
community offerings. Based upon this calculation, and the valuation conclusion and offering range
concluded above, the exchange ratio would be 1.2073 shares, 1.4204 shares, 1.6334 shares and 1.8784
shares of newly issued shares of Northfield stock for each share of stock held by the public
shareholders at the minimum, midpoint, maximum and adjusted maximum of the offering range,
respectively. RP Financial expresses no opinion on the proposed exchange of newly issued Company
shares for the shares held by the public stockholders or on the proposed exchange ratio. The
resulting range of value pursuant to regulatory guidelines, the corresponding number of shares
based on the Board approved $10.00 per share offering price, and the resulting exchange ratios are
shown below.
Exchange Shares | ||||||||||||||||
Offering | Issued to Public | Exchange | ||||||||||||||
Total Shares | Shares | Shareholders | Ratio | |||||||||||||
Shares |
||||||||||||||||
Maximum, as Adjusted |
82,129,380 | 46,287,500 | 35,841,880 | 1.8784 | ||||||||||||
Maximum |
71,416,852 | 40,250,000 | 31,166,852 | 1.6334 | ||||||||||||
Midpoint |
62,101,611 | 35,000,000 | 27,101,611 | 1.4204 | ||||||||||||
Minimum |
52,786,369 | 29,750,000 | 23,036,369 | 1.2073 | ||||||||||||
Distribution of Shares |
||||||||||||||||
Maximum, as Adjusted |
100.00 | % | 56.36 | % | 43.64 | % | ||||||||||
Maximum |
100.00 | % | 56.36 | % | 43.64 | % | ||||||||||
Midpoint |
100.00 | % | 56.36 | % | 43.64 | % | ||||||||||
Minimum |
100.00 | % | 56.36 | % | 43.64 | % | ||||||||||
Aggregate Market Value
at $10 per share |
||||||||||||||||
Maximum, as Adjusted |
$ | 821,293,800 | $ | 462,875,000 | $ | 358,418,800 | ||||||||||
Maximum |
$ | 714,168,520 | $ | 402,500,000 | $ | 311,668,520 | ||||||||||
Midpoint |
$ | 621,016,110 | $ | 350,000,000 | $ | 271,016,110 | ||||||||||
Minimum |
$ | 527,863,690 | $ | 297,500,000 | $ | 230,363,690 |
Limiting Factors and Considerations
Our valuation is not intended, and must not be construed, as a recommendation of any kind as to the
advisability of purchasing shares of the common stock. Moreover, because such valuation is
necessarily based upon estimates and projections of a number of matters, all of
Boards of Directors
May 14, 2010
Page 5
May 14, 2010
Page 5
which are subject
to change from time to time, no assurance can be given that persons who purchase shares of common
stock in the conversion will thereafter be able to buy or sell such
shares at prices related to the foregoing valuation of the estimated pro forma market value
thereof. The appraisal reflects only a valuation range as of this date for the pro forma market
value of Northfield immediately upon issuance of the stock and does not take into account any
trading activity with respect to the purchase and sale of common stock in the secondary market
following the completion of the second-step offering.
RP Financials valuation was based on the financial condition, operations and shares outstanding of
the mid-tier holding company as of March 31, 2010, the date of the financial data included in the
prospectus. The proposed exchange ratio to be received by the current public stockholders of the
mid-tier holding company and the exchange of the public shares for newly issued shares of
Northfield common stock as a full public company was determined independently by the Boards of
Directors of the MHC, Northfield, the mid-tier holding company and the Bank. RP Financial
expresses no opinion on the proposed exchange ratio to public stockholders or the exchange of
public shares for newly issued shares.
RP Financial is not a seller of securities within the meaning of any federal and state securities
laws and any report prepared by RP Financial shall not be used as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. RP Financial maintains a policy which prohibits
RP Financial, its principals or employees from purchasing stock of its client institutions.
This valuation will be updated as provided for in the conversion regulations and guidelines. These
updates will consider, among other things, any developments or changes in the financial performance
and condition of Northfield, management policies, and current conditions in the equity markets for
thrift shares, both existing issues and new issues. These updates may also consider changes in
other external factors which impact value including, but not limited to: various changes in the
legislative and regulatory environment for financial institutions, the stock market and the market
for thrift stocks, and interest rates. Should any such new developments or changes be material, in
our opinion, to the valuation of the shares, appropriate adjustments to the estimated pro forma
market value will be made. The reasons for any such adjustments will be explained in the update at
the date of the release of the update. The valuation will also be updated at the completion of
Northfields stock offering.
Respectfully submitted,
RP® FINANCIAL, LC.
RP® FINANCIAL, LC.
/s/ William E. Pommerening
William E. Pommerening
Chief Executive Officer and
Managing Director
William E. Pommerening
Chief Executive Officer and
Managing Director
RP® Financial, LC. | TABLE OF CONTENTS | |
i |
TABLE OF CONTENTS
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC.
NORTHFIELD BANK
Staten Island, New York
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC.
NORTHFIELD BANK
Staten Island, New York
PAGE | ||||
DESCRIPTION | NUMBER | |||
CHAPTER ONE OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
||||
Introduction |
I.1 | |||
Plan of Conversion and Reorganization |
I.1 | |||
Strategic Overview |
I.2 | |||
Balance Sheet Trends |
I.5 | |||
Income and Expense Trends |
I.8 | |||
Interest Rate Risk Management |
I.12 | |||
Lending Activities and Strategy |
I.13 | |||
Asset Quality |
I.17 | |||
Funding Composition and Strategy |
I.18 | |||
Subsidiary and Other Activities |
I.19 | |||
Legal Proceedings |
I.19 | |||
CHAPTER TWO MARKET AREA |
||||
Introduction |
II.1 | |||
National Economic Factors |
II.1 | |||
Market Area Demographics |
II.5 | |||
Local Economy |
II.8 | |||
Unemployment Trends |
II.9 | |||
Market Area Deposit Characteristics and Competition |
II.10 | |||
Summary |
II.12 | |||
CHAPTER THREE PEER GROUP ANALYSIS |
||||
Peer Group Selection |
III.1 | |||
Financial Condition |
III.8 | |||
Income and Expense Components |
III.11 | |||
Loan Composition |
III.14 | |||
Interest Rate Risk |
III.14 | |||
Credit Risk |
III.17 | |||
Summary |
III.17 |
RP® Financial, LC. | TABLE OF CONTENTS | |
ii |
TABLE OF CONTENTS
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC.
NORTHFIELD BANK
Staten Island, New York
(continued)
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC.
NORTHFIELD BANK
Staten Island, New York
(continued)
PAGE | ||||
DESCRIPTION | NUMBER | |||
CHAPTER FOUR VALUATION ANALYSIS |
||||
Introduction |
IV.1 | |||
Appraisal Guidelines |
IV.1 | |||
RP Financial Approach to the Valuation |
IV.1 | |||
Valuation Analysis |
IV.2 | |||
1. Financial Condition |
IV.2 | |||
2. Profitability, Growth and Viability of Earnings |
IV.4 | |||
3. Asset Growth |
IV.6 | |||
4. Primary Market Area |
IV.6 | |||
5. Dividends |
IV.8 | |||
6. Liquidity of the Shares |
IV.8 | |||
7. Marketing of the Issue |
IV.9 | |||
A. The Public Market |
IV.9 | |||
B. The New Issue Market |
IV.14 | |||
C. The Acquisition Market |
IV.16 | |||
D. Trading in Northfields Stock |
IV.16 | |||
8. Management |
IV.18 | |||
9. Effect of Government Regulation and Regulatory Reform |
IV.18 | |||
Summary of Adjustments |
IV.19 | |||
Valuation Approaches: |
IV.19 | |||
1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) |
IV.21 | |||
2. Price-to-Book (P/B) |
IV.22 | |||
3. Price-to-Assets (P/A) |
IV.22 | |||
Comparison to Recent Offerings |
IV.23 | |||
Valuation Conclusion |
IV.23 | |||
Establishment of the Exchange Ratio |
IV.25 |
RP® Financial, LC. | LIST OF TABLES | |
iii |
LIST OF TABLES
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC.
NORTHFIELD BANK
Staten Island, New York
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC.
NORTHFIELD BANK
Staten Island, New York
TABLE | ||||||||
NUMBER | DESCRIPTION | PAGE | ||||||
1.1 | Historical Balance Sheet Data |
I.6 | ||||||
1.2 | Historical Income Statements |
I.9 | ||||||
2.1 | Summary Demographic Data |
II.6 | ||||||
2.2 | Primary Market Area Employment Sectors |
II.8 | ||||||
2.3 | Unemployment Trends |
II.10 | ||||||
2.4 | Deposit Summary |
II.11 | ||||||
2.5 | Market Area Deposit Competitors |
II.13 | ||||||
3.1 | Peer Group of Publicly-Traded Thrifts |
III.3 | ||||||
3.2 | Balance Sheet Composition and Growth Rates |
III.9 | ||||||
3.3 | Income as a Pct. of Avg. Assets and Yields, Costs, Spreads |
III.12 | ||||||
3.4 | Loan Portfolio Composition and Related Information |
III.15 | ||||||
3.5 | Interest Rate Risk Measures and Net Interest Income Volatility |
III.16 | ||||||
3.6 | Credit Risk Measures and Related Information |
III.18 | ||||||
4.1 | Market Area Unemployment Rates |
IV.7 | ||||||
4.2 | Pricing Characteristics and After-Market Trends |
IV.15 | ||||||
4.3 | Market Pricing Comparatives |
IV.17 | ||||||
4.4 | Public Market Pricing |
IV.24 |
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.1 |
I. OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Introduction
Northfield Bank (the Bank), founded in 1887, is a federally-chartered stock savings bank
headquartered in Staten Island, New York. The Bank serves metropolitan communities located in
Staten Island and Brooklyn in New York and northern New Jersey. The Bank operates through its
headquarters, 17 additional branch offices in New York and New Jersey, an operations center in New
Jersey and a lending office in Atlanta, Georgia. The Bank is subject to regulation and oversight
by the Office of Thrift Supervision (the OTS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (the
FDIC). The Bank is a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, and its deposits are
insured up to the regulatory maximums by the FDIC. Exhibit I-1 is a map of the Banks office
locations.
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (NFBK) is the federally-chartered mid-tier holding company of the
Bank. NFBK owns 100% of the outstanding common stock of the Bank. Since being formed in 2007,
NFBK has been engaged primarily in the business of holding the common stock of the Bank. NFBK
completed its initial public offering on November 7, 2007, pursuant to which it sold 19,265,316
shares or 43.0% of its outstanding common stock to the public and issued 24,641,684 share or 57.0%
of its common stock outstanding to Northfield Bancorp, MHC (the MHC), the mutual holding company
parent of NFBK. Additionally, the Bank contributed $3.0 million in cash and NFBK issued 896,061
shares of common stock or 2.0% of its common stock outstanding to the Northfield Bank Charitable
Foundation (the Foundation). The MHC and NFBK are savings and loan holding companies subject to
regulation by the OTS. At March 31, 2010, NFBK had total consolidated assets of $2.1 billion,
deposits of $1.4 billion and equity of $396.3 million, or 18.89% of total assets. NFBKs audited
financial statements for the most recent period are included by reference as Exhibit I-2.
Plan of Conversion and Reorganization
On June 4, 2010, the respective Boards of Directors of the MHC and NFBK adopted a Plan of
Conversion and Reorganization (the Plan of Conversion) whereby the MHC will convert to stock
form. As a result of the conversion, NFBK, which currently owns all of the
issued and outstanding common stock of the Bank, will be succeed by a Delaware corporation
with the name of Northfield Bancorp, Inc. Following the conversion, the MHC will no longer
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.2 |
exist.
For purposes of this document, the existing consolidated entity and the new Delaware corporations
will hereinafter be referred to as Northfield or the Company. As of March 31, 2010, the MHCs
ownership interest in Northfield approximated 56.4% and the public stockholders ownership interest
in Northfield approximated 43.6%.
It is our understanding that Northfield will offer its stock, representing the majority
ownership interest held by the MHC, in a subscription offering to Eligible Account Holders,
Tax-Qualified Employee Stock Benefit Plans including the Banks employee stock ownership plan (the
ESOP), Supplemental Eligible Account Holders and Other Depositors, as such terms are defined for
purposes of applicable federal regulatory requirements governing mutual-to-stock conversions. To
the extent that shares remain available for purchase after satisfaction of all subscriptions
received in the subscription offering, the shares may be offered for sale to the general public in
a community offering and a syndicated community offering. Upon completing the mutual-to-stock
conversion and stock offering (the second-step conversion), the Company will be 100% owned by
public shareholders, the publicly-held shares of the Bank will be exchanged for shares in the
Company at a ratio that retains their ownership interest at the time the conversion is completed
and the MHC assets will be consolidated with the Company.
Strategic Overview
Historically, the Company has pursued a balance sheet strategy concentrated on maintaining a
significant portfolio of investment securities, primarily mortgage-backed securities (MBS),
funded largely by retail deposits generated through the branch network. The Companys lending
activities, comprising a smaller portion of the balance sheet, have emphasized the origination and
purchase of commercial real estate and multi-family loans, with secondary emphasis on 1-4 family,
construction and land loans, and non-mortgage commercial and industrial (C&I) and consumer loans.
Additionally, the Company recently purchased a specialty lender in Georgia that focuses on
insurance premium finance, including insurance premium loans as a supplement area of
diversification. Although the Company is making efforts to increase its lending activities, as of
March 31, 2010, net loans receivable continued to comprise just 34.3% of total assets. Of total
loans, 70.6% consisted of commercial real estate and multi-family loans. In addition to retail
deposits, the Company utilizes borrowings as an alternative funding source for purposes of managing
funding costs and interest rate risk. From
time-to-time, the Company also utilizes a limited amount of brokered deposits as an
alternative funding source. The Companys streamlined operations have facilitated operating
expense
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.3 |
levels that are below industry norms. At the same time, the concentration of investment
securities has reduced overall asset yields and has limited revenues derived from non-interest
sources.
The combination of the downturn in the national and regional economies and the Companys
emphasis on non-residential mortgage lending has resulted in recent deterioration in credit quality
measures. The upward trend in non-performing loans (NPLs) experienced in the last 15 months has
been mostly related to the portfolio of commercial real estate loans. In response, the Company has
established provisions for loan losses consistent with internal policies and has tightened several
underwriting policies related to commercial real estate and multi-family lending.
Investment securities have historically served as the Companys balance sheet concentration,
with MBS accounting for the largest concentration of the Companys investments. The MBS portfolios
include both agency securities issued by one of the Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) and
private issue (Non-GSE) securities. Northfields other investment holdings include GSE bonds,
corporate bonds and a limited amount of mutual fund investments classified as equity investments.
Although cash and investment have declined as a percent of total assets in recent years, as of
March 31, 2010, cash and investment securities continued to comprise 60.9% of total assets.
Deposits generated from residents within the Companys primary market area have consistently
served as the primary funding source for the Companys lending and investment activities.
Certificate of deposits (CDs) comprise the largest portion of the Companys deposit base, with
the balance consisting of lower costing transaction and saving accounts. Northfield utilizes
borrowings as a supplemental funding source to facilitate management of funding costs and interest
rate risk, with repurchase agreements and FHLB advances accounting for the largest portion of the
Companys borrowings, with lesser levels of overnight borrowings and capitalized leases. The
Company currently has plans to open new branches in Brooklyn (3 branches), Staten Island (2
branches) and New Jersey (1 branch) with subsequent preliminary plans to open two new branches
annually thereafter.
Northfields earnings base is largely dependent upon net interest income and operating expense
levels. Although the Companys investment securities put downward pressure on overall interest
income, net interest income has been maintained at healthy levels due to
favorably low funding costs derived from a high concentration of core deposits and limited use
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.4 |
of borrowings. Operating expenses have been maintained at relatively low levels, reflecting
efficiency in operations and relatively low personnel requirements for implementation of the
Companys operating strategy. In particular, the Company maintains a high ratio of assets per
employee, which is supported by the relatively lower staffing needs required to support the large
portfolio of investment securities and high average balance commercial real estate and multi-family
loans. While the Companys implementation of a fairly streamlined operating strategy has supported
containment of operating expenses, it has also limited development of revenues from non-interest
income sources. Accordingly, income generated from such sources as fees and service charges has
been a relatively modest contributor to the Companys earnings.
A key component of the Companys business plan is to complete a second-step conversion
offering. The Companys strengthened capital position will support continued expansion of the
branch network in desired growth markets. Also, as a fully-converted institution, the Companys
greater capacity to offer stock as consideration may facilitate increased opportunities to grow
through acquisition. At this time, the Company has no specific plans for expansion through
acquisition.
The post-offering business plan of the Company is expected to focus on operating and growing a
profitable institution serving retail customers in local markets, as well as increasing the loan
portfolio through origination and purchase of loans in the greater New York City metropolitan area.
Specifically, Northfield will continue to be an independent community-oriented financial
institution with a commitment to local real estate financing with operations funded by retail
deposits, borrowings, equity capital and internal cash flows. The additional capital realized from
stock proceeds will increase liquidity to support funding of future loan growth and other
interest-earning assets. In the prevailing economic and credit environment, the Companys higher
post-conversion capital position represents a source of strength to absorb potential losses
resulting from credit quality deterioration. Northfields higher capital position resulting from
the infusion of stock proceeds will also serve to reduce interest rate risk, particularly through
enhancing the Companys interest-earning assets/interest-bearing liabilities (IEA/IBL) ratio.
The additional funds realized from the stock offering will serve to raise the level of
interest-earning assets funded with equity and, thereby, reduce the ratio of interest-earning
assets funded with interest-bearing liabilities as the balance of interest-bearing liabilities will
initially remain relatively unchanged following the conversion, which may facilitate a reduction in
Northfields funding costs. The projected uses of proceeds are highlighted below.
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.5 |
| Northfield Bancorp, Inc. The Company is expected to retain up to 50% of the net offering proceeds. At present, funds maintained by the Company, net of the loan to the ESOP, are expected to be invested into short-term investment grade securities and liquid funds. Over time, the funds may be utilized for various corporate purposes, possibly including acquisitions, infusing additional equity into the Bank, repurchases of common stock, and the payment of cash dividends. | ||
| Northfield Bank. Approximately 50% of the net stock proceeds will be infused into the Bank in exchange for all of the Banks stock. Cash proceeds (i.e., net proceeds less deposits withdrawn to fund stock purchases) infused into the Bank are anticipated to become part of general operating funds, and are expected to be primarily utilized to fund loan growth over time. |
Overall, it is the Companys objective to pursue growth that will serve to increase returns,
while, at the same time, growth will not be pursued that could potentially compromise the overall
risk associated with Northfields operations.
Balance Sheet Trends
Table 1.1 shows the Companys historical balance sheet data for the past five and one-quarter
fiscal years. The Company reported balance sheet shrinkage in the fiscal year ended December 31,
2006 followed by three and one-quarter years of consistent growth. Over the time period shown, the
Company recorded asset growth at a 9.8% annual rate. Since fiscal year end 2005, the most notable
change in the Companys interest-earning asset composition has been an increase in net loans
receivable. On the liability side of the balance sheet, the level of deposits funding assets
increased since fiscal year end 2005, attributable to deposit growth through the branch network. A
summary of Northfields key operating ratios for the past five and one-quarter fiscal years is
presented in Exhibit I-3.
Loan growth trends generally exceeded assets growth trends, with loans increasing at a 16.0%
annual rate from fiscal year end 2005 through March 31, 2010. Loans receivable equaled $720.1
million or 34.3% of assets at March 31, 2010, versus comparable measures of $382.7 million or 27.2%
of assets at fiscal year end 2005. Northfields non-residential lending strategy is highlighted by
a loan portfolio composition that exhibits an increasing concentration of commercial real estate
and multi-family loans that have increased from 46.3% of total loans as of December 31, 2005 to
70.6% of total loans at March 31, 2010. Secondary lending emphasis has been placed on 1-4 family
residential loans. Trends in the loan portfolio reflect the secondary emphasis on residential
lending, as 1-4 family loans have declined as a
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.6 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.7 |
percent of total loans from 32.9% as of December 31, 2005 to 12.2% as of March 31, 2010. The
remainder of the portfolio reflects limited diversification into construction and land loans (5.4%
of total loans), the newly acquired portfolio of insurance premium loans (5.4% of total loans) and
home equity and lines of credit, C&I loans and other loans comprising, respectively, 3.8%, 2.4% and
0.2% of total loans.
The intent of the Companys investment policy is to provide adequate liquidity and to generate
a favorable return within the context of supporting overall credit and interest rate risk
objectives. Over the past five and one-quarter fiscal years, the Companys level of investment
securities has trended lower as a percent of the balance sheet, declining from 63.7% of assets at
fiscal year-end 2005 to 58.3% of total assets as of March 31, 2010. As of March 31, 2010, the
total size of the investment portfolio was $1.2 billion, consisting of MBS of $949.7 million,
corporate bonds of $136.7 million, GSE bonds of $130.3 million, and equity investments of $5.6
million. Included in MBS are $161.6 million of private issue (non-GSE) securities. As of March
31, 2010, the Company maintained $1.2 billion of investment securities as available-for-sale
(AFS) and $6.2 million of investment securities as held-to-maturity. The AFS portfolio had a net
unrealized gain of $26.7 million at that date. Exhibit I-4 provides historical detail of the
Companys investment portfolio. Other investments held by Company at March 31, 2010 consisted of
$5.1 million of FHLB stock and trading securities of $3.7 million. The Company also held cash and
cash equivalents amounting to $50.8 million or 2.4% of assets at March 31, 2010.
The Company also maintains an investment in bank-owned life insurance (BOLI) policies, which
cover the lives of most of the Companys management employees starting at the vice president level.
The purpose of the investment is to provide funding for the benefit plans of the covered
individuals. The life insurance policies earn tax-exempt income through cash value accumulation
and death proceeds. As of March 31, 2010, the cash surrender value of the Companys BOLI equaled
$44.2 million.
Over the past five and one-quarter fiscal years, Northfields funding needs have been
addressed through a combination of deposits, borrowings and internal cash flows. From fiscal year
end 2005 through March 31, 2010, the Companys deposits increased at a 7.9% annual rate. Most of
the Companys deposit growth occurred since fiscal 2007, as the balance of deposits declined
between December 31, 2005 and December 31, 2007. Overall, deposits increased from $1.0 billion or
71.7% of assets at fiscal year-end 2005 to $1.4 billion or 66.4% of
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.8 |
assets at March 31, 2010. CDs
have consistently accounted for the largest concentration of the
Companys deposit composition; although, deposit growth since fiscal year end 2007 has been
largely driven by the Companys money market deposit account product.
Borrowings serve as an alternative funding source for the Company to address funding needs for
growth and to support management of deposit costs and interest rate risk. From fiscal year end
2005 through March 31, 2010, borrowings increased at an annual rate of 5.5%. Overall, borrowings
increased from $233.6 million at fiscal year end 2005 to $293.1 million at March 31, 2010. As a
percent of the balance sheet, total borrowings have declined slightly to 14.0% of total assets as
of March 31, 2010. Repurchase agreements and FHLB advances constitute the primary source of
borrowings utilized by the Company. The Company also maintained a small balance of capitalized
leases at March 31, 2010.
The Companys equity increased at a 25.3% annual rate from fiscal year end 2005 through March
31, 2010, as retention of earnings combined with the net proceeds from the 2007 minority stock
offering significantly increased the Companys capitalization. Capital growth exceeded asset
growth, which provided for an increase in the Companys equity-to-assets ratio from 10.77% at
fiscal year end 2005 to 18.89% at March 31, 2010. The Company maintained a small balance of
goodwill and core deposit intangible from a 2002 acquisition, and tangible capital was 18.11% of
assets at March 31, 2010. The Bank maintained capital surpluses relative to all of its regulatory
capital requirements at March 31, 2010. The addition of stock proceeds will serve to strengthen
the Companys capital position, as well as support growth opportunities. At the same time, the
significant increase in Northfields pro forma capital position will initially depress its ROE.
Income and Expense Trends
Table 1.2 shows the Companys historical income statements for the past five fiscal years and
for the twelve months ended March 31, 2010. The Companys reported earnings over the past five
fiscal years, ranged from $10.5 million or 0.78% of average assets in fiscal 2007 to $15.8 million
or 1.01% of average assets in fiscal 2008. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, the Company
reported net income of $12.7 million or 0.65% of average assets. Net interest income and operating
expenses represent the primary components of the Companys earnings. Non-interest operating income
has been somewhat of a limited but stable
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.9 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.10 |
source of earnings for the Company. Loan loss provisions have become a more significant factor in
the Companys earnings over the past two and one-quarter fiscal years while, with the exception of
fiscal 2007 and the completion of the minority stock offering and contribution to the Foundation,
non-operating items typically have had a limited impact on the Companys earnings over the past
five and one-quarter fiscal years.
Over the past five and one-quarter fiscal years, the Company maintained a relatively
consistent net interest income to average assets ratio ranging from a low of 2.69% during fiscal
2006 to a high of 2.99% during 2008 and 2009. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, net
interest income was 2.98% of average assets. The positive trend in the Companys net interest
income ratio since fiscal 2006 period reflects the favorable impact that the decline in short-term
interest rates and resulting steeper yield curve has had on the Companys interest rate spread.
Growth of comparatively lower costing transaction account deposits contributed to the improvement
in the Companys net interest rate spread as well, which was partially negated by declining yields
on investment securities. The Companys interest rate spread increased from 2.34% during fiscal
2007 to 2.68% during the three months ended March 31, 2010, which was the result of a more
significant decline in funding costs relative to yields earned on interest-earning assets. The
Companys net interest rate spreads and yields and costs for the past three and one-quarter fiscal
years are set forth in Exhibit I-5.
Non-interest operating income has been a fairly stable, but somewhat limited, contributor to
the Companys earnings over the past five and one-quarter fiscal years, reflecting the Companys
limited diversification into products and services that generate non-interest operating income.
Throughout the period shown in Table 1.2, sources of non-interest operating income have ranged from
a high of 0.48% of average assets during fiscal 2008 to a low of 0.24% of average assets for the
twelve months ended March 31, 2010. The 2008 figures include receipt of proceeds from an insurance
policy. Retail fees and charges constitute the major portion of the Companys non-operating
revenues, with other non-operating sources of income consisting largely of insurance commissions,
loan fees and income from BOLI.
Operating expenses represent the other major component of the Companys earnings, ranging from
a low of 1.42% of average assets during fiscal 2005 to a high of 1.82% of average assets during
fiscal 2009 and for the twelve months ended March 31, 2010. Notwithstanding the upward trend in
the Companys operating expense ratio, the Company has effectively maintained a low operating
expense ratio throughout the period shown in Table 1.2. As
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.11 |
previously noted, the Companys
relatively low operating expense ratio is supported by a current
operating strategy including a concentration of investment securities and higher balance
commercial real estate and multi-family loans that limit staffing needs relative to total asset
size. As of March 31, 2010, the Companys ratio of assets per full time equivalent employee
equaled $9.4 million, versus $6.1 million for all publicly-traded thrifts. The higher operating
expenses recorded during fiscal 2009 and for the most recent twelve month period were mostly
related to an increase in FDIC insurance premiums due to a special assessment and initiation of
employee benefit expense accruals.
Overall, the general trends in the Companys net interest margin and operating expense ratio
since fiscal 2005 reflect a slight decrease in core earnings, as indicated by the Companys expense
coverage ratio (net interest income divided by operating expenses). Northfields expense coverage
ratio equaled 1.98 times during fiscal 2005, versus a ratio of 1.64 times during the twelve months
ended March 31, 2010. The decrease in the expense coverage ratio resulted from a more significant
increase in the operating expense ratio compared to the increase in the net interest income ratio.
Similarly, Northfields efficiency ratio (operating expenses, net of amortization of intangibles,
as a percent of the sum of net interest income and other operating income) of 45.8% during fiscal
2005 was slightly more favorable than its efficiency ratio of 56.6% for the twelve months ended
March 31, 2010.
Over the past five and one-quarter fiscal years, loan loss provisions established by the
Company ranged from a nominal amount during fiscal years 2005 through 2007 to a high of 0.48% of
average assets in fiscal 2009 and 0.47% of average assets during the twelve months ended March 31,
2010. The higher loan provisions established during recent periods reflect an increase in
non-performing loans and the impact of the recession on the Companys lending markets. As of March
31, 2010, the Company maintained valuation allowances of $17.1 million, equal to 2.33% of net loans
held-for investment and 34.26% of non-performing loans. Exhibit I-6 sets forth the Companys loan
loss allowance activity during the past five and one-quarter fiscal years.
Non-operating income over the past five and one-quarter fiscal years has typically been
somewhat of limited factor in the Companys earnings, consisting substantially of gains and losses
on the sale of investment securities and, during fiscal 2007, a gain on the sale of branches and
the expense of funding the Foundation. Net non-operating income over the past five and one-quarter
fiscal years ranged from a loss during fiscal 2007 of 0.56% of average
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.12 |
assets to net gains of $1.5
million equal to 0.08% of average assets during the twelve months ended March 31, 2010. The net
gain recorded during the most recent twelve month period was
mostly attributable to a $1.7 million securities gain. Overall, the various items that
comprise the Companys non-operating income are not viewed to be part of the Companys core or
recurring earnings base.
The Companys effective tax rate ranged from 44.1% for fiscal 2005 to negative 17.4% for
fiscal 2007. The effective tax rate was 35.1% during the twelve months ended March 31, 2010. As
set forth in the prospectus, the Companys marginal effective tax rate is 40.0%.
Interest Rate Risk Management
The Companys balance sheet is liability-sensitive in the short-term (less than one year) and,
thus, the net interest margin will typically be adversely affected during periods of rising and
higher interest rates, as well as in the interest rate environment that generally prevailed during
2006 and 2007, in which the yield curve was flat or inverted. Comparatively, the Companys net
interest margin has benefited from recent interest rate trends, which has provided for a steeper
yield curve as the result of a decline in short-term interest rates. Notwithstanding this balance
sheet composition, the Companys interest rate risk is relatively low. As of March 31, 2010, an
analysis of the Companys net portfolio value (NPV), defined as the net of the present value of
the cash flows of an institutions existing assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet instruments,
indicated that a 2.0% instantaneous increase, permanent and parallel change in interest rates at
all maturities would result in just a 9.65% decline in Northfields NPV and a 7.26% decline in net
interest income (see Exhibit I-7).
The Company pursues a number of strategies to manage interest rate risk, particularly with
respect to seeking to limit the repricing mismatch between interest rate sensitive assets and
liabilities. The Company manages interest rate risk from the asset side of the balance sheet
through investing in securities with relatively short-terms to maturity, maintaining the majority
of investments as available for sale and originating and purchasing shorter-term and adjustable
rate loans. On the liability side of the balance sheet, management of interest rate risk has been
pursued through utilizing repurchase agreements and FHLB advances with laddered terms extending
beyond 2014 and emphasizing growth of lower costing and less interest rate sensitive transaction
and savings account deposits. Transaction and savings account deposits comprised 54.1% of the
Companys deposits at March 31, 2010.
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.13 |
The infusion of stock proceeds will serve to further limit the Companys interest rate risk
exposure, as most of the net proceeds will be redeployed into interest-earning assets and the
increase in the Companys capital position will lessen the proportion of interest rate
sensitive liabilities funding assets.
Lending Activities and Strategy
Northfields lending activities have traditionally emphasized commercial real estate and
multi-family lending, and such loans comprise the substantial portion of the Companys loan
portfolio. Beyond commercial real estate and multi-family loans, lending diversification by the
Company includes 1-4 family residential loans, construction and land loans, insurance premiums
loans, home equity loans and non-mortgage C&I and consumer loans. Going forward, the Companys
lending strategy will continue to emphasize the origination and purchase of commercial real estate
and multi-family. Exhibit I-8 provides historical detail of Northfield Bancorp, Inc.s loan
portfolio composition over the past five years and one-quarter fiscal years and Exhibit I-9
provides the contractual maturity of the Companys loan portfolio by loan type as of December 31,
2009.
Commercial Real Estate and Multi-Family Loans. As of March 31, 2010, commercial real
estate loans totaled $332.4 million, or 45.13% of total loans, and multi-family loans totaled
$187.3 million or 25.44% of total loans. While both portfolios have increased in recent years, the
growth in the portfolio of multi-family loans has been significant, increasing from a balance of
$14.1 million at December 31, 2005 to the current level. The primary source for commercial real
estate and multi-family loans are referrals from local brokers. All loans are, however,
underwritten in accordance with the Companys underwriting standards. The majority of commercial
real estate loans are owner-occupied businesses, with lesser amounts of office buildings,
manufacturing buildings and other commercial properties. Multi-family loans include apartment
buildings, properties with five or more dwelling units, and mixed-use properties that have more
than four residential family units and a business or businesses. Substantially all of the
Companys commercial real estate and multi-family loans are secured by properties located in the
primary market areas. Commercial real estate loans typically amortize over 20- to 25-years with
interest rates that adjust after an initial five- or 10-year period, and every five years
thereafter. Multi-family real estate loans typically amortize over 20 to 30 years with interest
rates that adjust after an initial five- or 10-year period, and every five years thereafter.
Margins for commercial real estate and multi-family loans generally range from 275 basis points to
350
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.14 |
basis points above the average yield on U.S. Treasury securities, adjusted to a constant
maturity of similar term, as published by the Federal Reserve Board. Recent adjustable rate
loans have generally been indexed to the five year London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR)
swaps rate as published in the Federal Reserve Statistical Release adjusted for a negotiated
margin. The Company also originates, to a lesser extent, 10- to 15-year fixed-rate, fully
amortizing loans. In general, commercial real estate and multi-family loans have interest rate
floors equal to the interest rate on the date the loan is originated, and have prepayment penalties
should the loan be repaid in the first three to five years. Commercial real estate loans have a
maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio equal to the lesser of 75% of the propertys appraised value or
purchase price and generally require a minimum projected net cash flow to the loans debt service
requirement of 120%. Multi-family real estate loans generally are originated in amounts up to 75%
of the appraised value of the property securing the loan and generally require a minimum projected
net cash flow to the loans debt service requirement of 115%. While personal guarantees are
usually obtained from commercial real estate borrowers, due to competitor considerations, personal
guarantees are generally not obtained from multi-family real estate borrowers. Loans secured by
commercial real estate and multi-family real estate properties generally have greater credit risk
than 1-4 family residential real estate loans. This increased credit risk is a result of several
factors, including the concentration of principal in a limited number of loans and borrowers, the
effects of general economic conditions on income producing properties, and the increased difficulty
of evaluating and monitoring these types of loans. Furthermore, the repayment of loans secured by
commercial real estate and multi-family real estate properties typically depends on the successful
operation of the property. If the cash flow from the project is reduced, the borrowers ability to
repay the loan may be impaired.
1-4 Family Residential Loans. At March 31, 2010, the Company reported 1-4 family
residential real estate loans outstanding with an aggregate balance of $90.0 million, or 12.22% of
total loans. As of March 31, 2010, the average balance of 1-4 family loans was $162,000 and the
largest loan of this type had a principal balance of $2.4 million. The current portfolio of 1-4
family residential mortgage real estate loans: (a) generally have been underwritten according to
Freddie Mac guidelines; (b) include both conforming fixed- and adjustable-rate loans; and (c)
include a limited number of fixed- and adjustable- rate loans above the lending limit for
conforming loans (jumbo loans) with terms for fixed rate jumbo loans generally up to 15 years and
adjustable-rate jumbo loans with an initial fixed-rate period of 10 years. The Company has
significantly deemphasized 1-4 family lending activities and the portfolio has declined from a
level of $127.5 million as of December 31, 2005 to its current level. Moreover, effective April
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.15 |
2010, the Company has outsourced its entire 1-4 family lending activities to PHH Mortgage, a
private label 1-4 family lender that will provide origination, underwriting and processing
services. Company customers seeking 1-4 family residential real estate loan products will be
referred to
PHH Mortgage for service. The Company will receive a fixed fee for each loan originated, but
will not retain 1-4 family residential real estate loans and expects to benefit from reduced
compliance and processing costs.
Construction and Loan Loans. At March 31, 2010, construction and land loans totaled
$39.5 million, or 5.36% of total loans. At March 31, 2010, the additional un-advanced portion of
these construction loans totaled $9.8 million. The balance of construction and land loans has
declined over the past several years as construction and development has slowed in response to
economic conditions. Substantially all construction and land loans are secured by real estate
located in the Companys primary market areas. Construction and land loans typically are interest
only loans with interest rates that are tied to a prime rate index as published by the Wall
Street Journal. Margins generally range from zero basis points to 200 basis points above the
prime rate index. The Company also originates, to a lesser extent, 10- to 15-year fixed-rate,
fully amortizing land loans. In general, construction and land loans have interest rate floors
equal to the interest rate on the date the loan is originated, and the Company does not typically
charge prepayment penalties. Construction and land loans are generally made to experienced
developers for the construction of single-family residences, including condominiums and commercial
properties, and to individuals for the construction of personal residences. Land loans also help
finance the purchase of land intended for future development, including single-family housing,
multifamily housing, and commercial property. In general, the maximum LTV ratio for a land
acquisition loan is 50% of the appraised value of the property, and the maximum term of these loans
is two years. Construction and land loans generally carry higher interest rates and have shorter
terms than one- to four- family residential real estate loans. Construction and land loans have
greater credit risk than long-term financing on improved, owner-occupied real estate.
Insurance Premium Loans. At March 31, 2010, insurance premium loans totaled $40.0
million, or 5.43% of the total loan portfolio. As of March 31, 2010, the average loan balance of
$9,000 and the largest insurance premium loan had a principal balance of $961 thousand. The
insurance premium portfolio was acquired in October 2009 with the acquisition of a specialty lender
in the State of Georgia. The Company has increased the size of the acquired portfolio slightly,
but it is not expected that significant additional growth will be realized over the next several
years. Insurance premium loans typically amortize over nine to 12 months at fixed rates
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.16 |
and
typically require a down payment of 15% to 20%. These loans are structured (down payment and
repayment term) such that the unpaid loan balance is generally fully secured by the unearned
premiums refundable by insurance carriers. Insurance premium loan credit
decisions generally are based on a credit assessment of the insurance carrier, and in some
instances, the credit assessment of the borrower.
Home Equity Loans and Lines of Credit. At March 31, 2010, the Company reported home
equity loans and lines of credit with an aggregate outstanding balance of $28.1 million, or 3.82%
of total loans. Of this total, there were outstanding home equity lines of credit of $12.8
million. At March 31, 2010, the average home equity loans and lines of credit balance was $49
thousand, the largest home equity line of credit was $1.5 million, and the largest home equity loan
was $331 thousand. The aggregate balance of home equity loans and lines of credit has increased
over the past several years. The Company offers home equity loans and home equity lines of credit
that are secured by the borrowers primary residence or second home. Home equity lines of credit
are variable rate loans tied to a prime rate index as published in the Wall Street Journal
adjusted for a margin, and have a maximum term of 20 years during which time the borrower is
required to make principal payments based on a 20-year amortization. Home equity lines generally
have interest rate floors and ceilings. Home equity loans typically are fully amortizing with
fixed terms to 20 years. Home equity loans and lines of credit generally are underwritten with the
same criteria used to underwrite fixed-rate, 1-4 family residential real estate loans. Home equity
loans and lines of credit may be underwritten with a LTV ratio of 80% when combined with the
principal balance of the existing mortgage loan.
Commercial and Industrial Loans. At March 31, 2010, C&I loans totaled $17.8 million,
or 2.42% of the total loan portfolio. As of March 31, 2010, the average C&I loan balance was $288
thousand and the largest loan had a principal balance of $3.0 million and was performing in
accordance with its original contractual terms. C&I loans typically amortize over 10 years with
interest rates that are tied to a prime rate index as published in the Wall Street Journal.
Margins generally range from zero basis points to 300 basis points above the prime rate index. We
also originate, to a lesser extent, 10 year fixed-rate, fully amortizing loans. In general, C&I
loans have interest rate floors equal to the interest rate on the date the loan is originated and
have prepayment penalties. The Company makes various types of secured and unsecured C&I loans to
customers in the primary market area for the purpose of working capital and other general business
purposes. The terms of these loans generally range from less than one year to a maximum of 15
years. The loans are either negotiated on a fixed-rate basis or carry adjustable interest rates
indexed to a market rate index. C&I loans generally carry higher interest rates
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.17 |
than 1-4 family
residential real estate loans of like maturity because they have a higher risk of default.
Loan Originations, Purchases, and Sales. Lending activities are conducted in all
branch locations. All loans originated for portfolio are underwritten pursuant to the Companys
policies and procedures. A significant portion of commercial real estate loans and multifamily
real estate loans are generated by referrals from loan brokers, accountants, and other professional
contacts. Effective April 2010, 1-4 family residential lending has been outsourced to a third
party service provider. And home equity loans and lines of credit typically are generated through
direct mail advertisements, newspaper advertisements, and referrals from branch personnel.
Historically, loan purchases, the origination of loans held for sale, and related servicing
activity has not been material to the Companys operations. However, during the fourth quarter of
2009, the Company purchased approximately $35.4 million in insurance premium loans. Overall, net
loans receivable increased from $387.8 million at fiscal year-end 2005 to $736.6 million at March
31, 2010.
Asset Quality
The Companys historical balance sheet concentration of MBS and the correspondingly relatively
small loan portfolio have generally supported the maintenance of relatively favorable credit
quality measures. With the onset of the national recession and rapid growth in commercial real
estate and multi-family lending, the Company has experienced some credit quality deterioration in
its loan portfolio during the past two and one-quarter fiscal years. Over the past five and
one-quarter fiscal years, Northfield Bancorp, Inc.s balance of non-performing assets ranged from a
low of 0.15% of assets at fiscal year end 2005 to a high of 2.46% of assets at March 31, 2010.
Non-performing loans ranged from 0.53% of loans held-for-investment at fiscal year end 2005 to a
high of 6.79% at March 31, 2010. As shown in Exhibit I-10, non-performing assets at March 31, 2010
consisted of $50.0 million of non-performing loans and $1.5 million of real estate owned.
Non-performing loans are non-accrual loans that are 90 days or more delinquent or are in the
process of foreclosure. The majority of non-performing loans held by the Company at March 31, 2010
were commercial real estate loans ($36.7 million or 73% of total non-performing loans).
To track the Companys asset quality and the adequacy of valuation allowances, the Company has
established detailed asset classification policies and procedures which are consistent with
regulatory guidelines. Classified assets are reviewed monthly by senior
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.18 |
management and the Board.
Pursuant to these procedures, when needed, the Company establishes additional valuation allowances
to cover anticipated losses in classified or non-classified assets. As of March 31, 2010, the Company maintained loan loss allowances of $17.1
million, equal to 2.33% of net loans held-to-maturity and 34.26% of non-performing loans.
Funding Composition and Strategy
Deposits have consistently served as the Companys primary funding source and at March 31,
2010 deposits accounted for 66.4% of Northfields total balance sheet. Exhibit I-11 sets forth the
Companys deposit composition for the past three and one-quarter fiscal years. CDs constitute the
largest component of the Companys deposit composition, although the concentration of CDs
comprising total deposits has declined slightly since fiscal year end 2007. As of March 31, 2010,
the CD portfolio totaled $626.2 million or 45.0% of total deposits, versus comparable measures of
$402.6 million and 45.9% of total deposits at fiscal year end 2007. The current CD composition
reflects a higher concentration of short-term CDs (maturities of one year or less), with $525.5
million or 83.9% scheduled to mature in 2010. As of March 31, 2010, jumbo CDs (CD accounts with
balances of $100,000 or more) amounted to $339.8 million or 54.3% of total CDs. From time-to-time
the Company has supplemented retail CDs with a limited amount of brokered CDs, although the Company
did not maintain any brokered CDs at March 31, 2010.
The Company maintained $766.7 million of savings and transaction account deposits at March 31,
2010, which equaled 55.0% of total deposits. Comparatively, savings and transaction account
deposits equaled $474.6 million or 54.1% of total deposits at fiscal year end 2007. Growth of
savings and transaction account deposits since fiscal year end 2007 has been primarily sustained by
growth of money market account deposits. Money market deposits increased from $6.0 million or 0.7%
of total deposits at fiscal year-end 2007 to $226.1 million or 16.2% of total deposits at March 31,
2010. Over the same time period, savings account deposits increased from $311.8 million or 35.6%
of total deposits to $365.7 million or 26.2% of total deposits.
Borrowings serve as an alternative funding source for the Company to facilitate management of
funding costs and interest rate risk. Borrowings utilized by the Company have predominantly
consisted of repurchase agreements and FHLB advances. As of March 31, 2010, the Company maintained
$244.7 million of repurchase agreements and $46.3 million of
RP® Financial, LC. | OVERVIEW AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | |
I.19 |
FHLB advances. Repurchase agreements
and FHLB advances held by the Company at March 31, 2010 had laddered maturities extending beyond
2014. The other borrowings held by the Company at March 31, 2010 consisted of $2.1 million of
capitalized leases. Exhibit I-12
provides further detail of the Companys borrowings activities during the past three and
one-quarter fiscal years.
Subsidiary and Other Activities
The Company owns 100% of Northfield Investment, Inc., an inactive New Jersey investment company,
and 100% of Northfield Bank. Northfield Bank owns 100% of NSB Services Corp., a Delaware
corporation, which in turn owns 100% of the voting common stock of NSB Realty Trust. NSB Realty
Trust is a Maryland real estate investment trust that holds mortgage loans, mortgage-backed
securities and other investments. These entities enable the Company to segregate certain assets
for management purposes, and promote the ability to raise regulatory capital in the future through
the sale of preferred stock or other capital-enhancing securities or borrow against assets or stock
of these entities for liquidity purposes. At March 31, 2010, the Banks investment in NSB Services
Corp. was $580.6 million, and NSB Services Corp. had assets of $580.8 million and liabilities of
$134 thousand at that date. At March 31, 2010, NSB Services Corp.s investment in NSB Realty Trust
was $584.9 million, and NSB Realty Trust had $584.9 million in assets, and liabilities of $24,000
at that date. NSB Insurance Agency, Inc. is a New York corporation that receives nominal
commissions from the sale of life insurance by employees of Northfield Bank. At March 31, 2010,
Northfield Banks investment in NSB Insurance Agency was $1,000.
Legal Proceedings
The Company is not currently party to any pending legal proceedings that the Companys
management believes would have a material adverse effect on the Companys financial condition,
results of operations or cash flows.
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.1 |
II. MARKET AREA
Introduction
Headquartered in Staten Island, New York, Northfield serves northeastern New Jersey and
southern New York through the main office and 17 full service branch offices. The Companys branch
network covers a four-county market area including Middlesex County and Union County in New Jersey
(6 branches), Kings County (1 branch) and Richmond County (11 branches) in New York. Northfield
also maintains an operations center in New Jersey and a lending office in Atlanta, Georgia.
The primary market areas served by the Company are the urban markets of Staten Island and
Brooklyn in New York and the urban/suburban markets in northern New Jersey. With operations in
densely populated metropolitan areas, the Companys competitive environment includes a significant
number of commercial banks, thrifts and other financial services companies, some of which have a
regional or national presence. The regional economy is highly diversified and tends to parallel
trends in the broader national economy. As counties both surrounding and in the New York
metropolitan area, the regional market area includes a large population with jobs in New York City.
Accordingly, the local economy has felt impact of national recession as well as the credit crisis
on Wall Street, as evidenced by rising unemployment and declining real estate values throughout the
markets served by the Company.
Future growth opportunities for Northfield depend on the future growth and stability of the
local and regional economy, demographic growth trends, and the nature and intensity of the
competitive environment. These factors have been briefly examined to help determine the growth
potential that exists for the Company, the relative economic health of the Companys market area,
and the resultant impact on value.
National Economic Factors
The future success of the Companys operations is partially dependent upon national economic
factors and trends. In assessing economic trends over past few quarters, signs that the U.S.
economy was pulling out of the recession became more evident at the start of the third
quarter of 2009. However, overall economic conditions remained weak. The July 2009
employment report showed the fewest job losses in a year and the unemployment rate dipped
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.2 |
to 9.4%,
its first decline in nine months. Retail sales were down slightly in July, raising concerns over
the durability of the recovery. However, sales of existing homes jumped 7.2% in July, the fastest
pace in nearly two years. July new home sales were up sharply as well, which supported a 4.9%
increase in July durable-goods orders. August economic data generally indicated that the recession
was nearing an end, as manufacturing output grew for the first time since January 2008 and the
cash for clunkers program fueled a rebound in August retail sales. August employment data showed
fewer than expected job losses, while the unemployment rate rose to a 26 year high of 9.7%. The
index of leading indicators rose for the fifth straight month in August, providing another sign of
recovery. Second quarter GDP declined at a 0.7% annualized rate, which was better than the 1%
decline previously estimated. Other economic data suggested an uneven recovery, as existing home
sales slid in August and consumer confidence fell in September. Manufacturing and service sector
activity both grew in September, while the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.8% in September as
employers cut more jobs than expected. As job losses continued to mount, vacancy rates for
commercial office space continued to increase during the third quarter. Retail sales fell in
September from August as the cash for clunkers program ended, however, excluding autos, retail
sales increased slightly in September. New home sales fell in September, while orders for durable
goods increased in September. Third quarter GDP increased at a 3.5% annual rate (subsequently
revised to 2.2%), marking an apparent end to the recession. Notably, a large portion of GDP growth
in the third quarter was generated through federal stimulus programs, bringing into question the
sustainability of the recovery without government support.
October 2009 showed further signs of an economic recovery, even as the labor market continued
to struggle. U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the third month in a row in October, while a
net loss of 190,000 jobs in October pushed the October unemployment rate up to 10.2%. Retail sales
and the index of leading economic indicators both rose in October, while housing data was mixed
raising doubts about the strength of the sectors recovery. New home starts tumbled in October,
while sales of existing home showed a strong increase in October. Signs of a slow and uneven
economic recovery continued to be reflected in the November data. Manufacturing activity continued
to grow in November, while the service sector contracted in November after growing in October.
Employment data for November reflected the fewest number of job losses since December 2007, which
reduced the unemployment rate to 10.0%. The Federal Reserves beige book released in
early-December showed the economy improving moderately, with consumer spending up but commercial
real estate weakening.
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.3 |
Additional evidence that strength was returning to the economy included a healthy rise in
November durable goods orders and manufacturing activity in December expanding at its fastest pace
in more than three years. Sales of existing homes were up solidly in November, although
construction spending in November was down slightly. Manufacturing activity expanded in December
at its fastest pace in more than three years, while the service sector recorded only modest growth
in December. Job losses were significantly higher than expected in December, dashing hopes of a
near term turnaround in employment. Employers cut 85,000 jobs in December, while the December
unemployment rate held steady at 10.0%. The index of leading economic indicators rose 1.1% from
November to December for its ninth straight month of gains, while housing data for December was
less favorable with both new and existing home sales declining in December. The decline in home
sales in December was in part related to a surge in home sales during the fall, as first-time home
buyers raced to take advantage of a tax credit before it expired. Fourth quarter GDP increased at
an annual rate of 5.7% (subsequently revised to 5.6%), although much of the growth was tied to
companies replenishing low inventories that typically only provides a temporary bump in growth.
Manufacturing activity rose for a sixth straight month in January 2010, with the rate of
expansion at its highest point since August 2004. Comparatively, service sector activity remained
stable in January. Payrolls unexpectedly fell in January with the loss of 20,000 jobs, but the
January unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to a five month low of 9.7%. Retail sales were up
in January, although consumer confidence fell in February. Sales of existing homes fell in January
and orders for durable goods showed weakness in January, underscoring the uneven progress of the
U.S. recovery. The manufacturing and service sectors both showed expansion in February, while the
February unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.7%. The February unemployment report showed a
loss of 36,000 jobs, which was fewer than expected. New and existing home sales were lower in
February compared to January, but retail sales continued to show an increase for February. U.S.
manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activity continued to grow in March, while the March
unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%. Employers added 162,000 jobs in March, but almost one-third
of the jobs came from the governments hiring for the census. A surge in March retail sales and
home construction increasing for a third straight month in March provided evidence that the
economic recovery was gaining traction. However, a separate report showed that consumer confidence
fell in April.
In terms of interest rate trends during the past few quarters, interest rates eased lower at
the start of the third quarter of 2009 as investors shunned risk ahead of second quarter earnings
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.4 |
reports. Some economic data showing an improving economy and growing belief that the recession was
nearing an end pushed long-term Treasury yields up slightly heading into late-July. The upward trend in interest rates continued into the first week of August, as interest
rates edged higher following the better-than-expected employment report for July. Long-term
Treasury yields eased lower going into the second half of August, as the Federal Reserve concluded
its mid-August meeting leaving its key short-term rate near zero and indicated it would stay there
for the foreseeable future. Weaker than expected retail sales for July and a decline in July
wholesale prices further contributed to the pull back in interest rates. Long-term Treasury yields
reversed course after mid-August on the stronger than expected report for July existing home sales.
Interest rates stabilized in late-August and remained relatively stable through most of September,
as inflation worries remained low amid high unemployment and slack in the economy. News that
consumer confidence fell in September pushed Treasury yields lower at the end of the third quarter.
Mixed economic data and no apparent threat of inflationary pressures supported a stable
interest rate environment at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2009, providing for the
continuation of a relatively steep yield curve. Interest rates remained stable through the balance
of October, reflecting uncertainty over the sustainability of the economic recovery with consumer
confidence declining for the second month in a row. The Federal Reserve concluded its
early-November meeting by keeping its target interest rate near zero, which along with the weaker
than expected employment report for October sustained a stable interest rate environment into
mid-November. Long-term Treasury yields eased lower heading into the second half of November,
following comments by the Federal Reserve Chairman that unemployment and troubles in commercial
real estate would weigh on the recovery. Long-term Treasury yields dipped in late-November
following news of the credit crisis in Dubai. A better than expected jobs report for November
moved interest rates higher in early-December. Following the Federal Reserves mid-December
meeting and decision to hold its target interest rate steady, the spread between short-term and
long-term Treasury yields widened further in the final weeks of 2009 as long-term Treasury yields
edged higher amid signs that the U.S. economy was improving.
Interest rates stabilized at the start of 2010 and then edged lower heading into the second
half of January, reflecting uncertainty on the strength of the recovery. The Federal Reserves two
day meeting in late-January concluded with no change in its key rate target, but offered a slightly
rosier economic outlook in its statement. A rise in January consumer confidence, along with the
Federal Reserves more upbeat assessment of the economy,
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.5 |
provided for a slight upward trend in
long-term Treasury yields in late-January. Worries that Greeces debt woes were spreading across
Europe and job losses reflected in the January
employment report pushed Treasury yields lower in late-January and into early-February. Some
positive economic data regarding home prices and industrial output pushed interest rates higher
heading in mid-February. Treasury yields rose in mid-February on the Federal Reserves decision to
raise the discount rate, spurring thoughts of tighter credit for borrowers in general. Weak
economic data and indications from the Federal Reserve that short-term interest rates would remain
near zero for at least several months pushed long-term Treasury yields lower at the close of
February. Comparatively, long-term Treasury yields eased higher during the first half of March,
based on better-than-expected reports for February employment data and retail sales. Interest
rates stabilized in mid-March following the Federal Reserves mid-March meeting, as the Federal
Reserve held its target rate steady and signaled that it would be at least several months before
they raise short-term interest rates. Weak demand for an auction of five year Treasury notes and
signs of the economic recovery gaining traction pushed Treasury yields higher in late-March and
early-April, with the 10-year Treasury note yield increasing to 4.0% in early-April. Treasury
yields eased lower in mid-April, as the consumer price index for March indicated that inflation
remained muted. As of May 14, 2010, the bond equivalent yields for U.S. Treasury bonds with terms
of one and ten years equaled 0.34% and 3.44%, respectively, versus comparable year ago yields of
0.50% and 3.10%. Exhibit II-1 provides historical interest rate trends.
Based on the consensus outlook of 55 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in
February 2010, the economy is expected to expand around 3% for 2010. GDP growth is not expected to
make a significant dent in the unemployment rate, as the surveyed economists on average expected
the unemployment rate to only fall to 9.4% by the end of 2010. Most of the respondents said the
Federal Reserve would not raise rates until the third quarter of 2010 at the earliest.
Market Area Demographics
Demographic and economic growth trends, measured by changes in population, number of
households, age distribution and median household income, provide key insight into the health of
the market area served by Northfield (see Table 2.1). The primary market area counties are densely
populated markets, ranking among the largest populations in New Jersey
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.6 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.7 |
and New York. Kings County (Brooklyn) has the largest population among the four primary
market area counties and is the largest county in New York with Richmond County (Staten Island)
coming in as 10th largest. In New Jersey, Middlesex County and Union County are the
second and seventh largest, respectively, of the 21 counties in New Jersey. Three of the primary
market area counties served by Northfield experienced relatively slow demographic growth during the
2000 to 2009 period, a characteristic typical of mature densely populated urban markets located
throughout the Northeast Corridor. Population and household growth rates for the primary market
area counties have been and are projected to remain well below the comparable U.S. measures, while
approximating or exceeding slightly the comparable New Jersey and New York growth rates. Among the
primary market area counties, population and household growth rates were the strongest in Richmond
County matching the comparable United States growth rates. Comparatively, the population and
household growth rate for Union County fell below the comparable New Jersey growth rate, with a
slight decline in overall population and households over the next five years. Middlesex Countys
growth rate is slightly higher than the comparable New Jersey growth rate. Population and
household growth rates are projected to decline for all four counties of operation over the next
five years, which is consistent with the statewide forecast.
Income measures show Richmond County, Middlesex County and Union County are relatively
affluent markets, characterized by a relatively high concentration of white collar professionals.
Comparatively, income for Kings County, which has a relatively broad socioeconomic spectrum, was
well below the state averages as well as the Counties of Middlesex, Union and Richmond. The
primary market area counties generally experienced income growth rates that were in line with the
state and national growth rates for the 2000 through 2009 period. Consistent with the projected
income growth rates for New Jersey, New York and the U.S., income growth rates for the primary
market area counties are projected to decrease over the next five years. The affluence of the
Richmond County, the Companys primary market in Staten Island, is further evidenced by a
comparison of household income distribution measures, as Richmond County maintains a lower
percentage of households with incomes of less than $25,000 and a much higher percentage of
households with incomes over $100,000 relative to Kings County as well as the U.S. and New York.
The affluence of Middlesex County is evidenced by a comparison of household income distribution
measures, as Middlesex County maintains a lower percentage of households with incomes of less that
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.8 |
$25,000 and a much higher percentage of households with incomes of $100,000 relative to Union
County, as well as the U.S. and New Jersey.
Local Economy
The markets served by the Company have large and diverse economies. Comparative employment
data in Table 2.2 shows that employment in services constitutes the primary source of employment in
all four of the counties. Wholesale/retail jobs generally were the second largest source of
employment, and government employment provided the third largest source of jobs in the counties of
Middlesex and Union, while finance, insurance and real estate jobs constitute the third largest
employment sector in the counties of Richmond and Kings.
[table omitted]
All four counties are part of the New York MSA which is also known as New York-Northern New
Jersey-Long Island, New York-New Jersey-Pennsylvania Metropolitan Statistical
Area (MSA). Within the New York MSA there are ample opportunities for employment, which
influences the commuter patterns found in the market area. The largest employer in Middlesex County
is Robert Wood Johnson Hospital with over 5,000 employees, while Middlesex County is
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.9 |
home to a
total of 20 different establishments that contained over 1,000 employees. One of the largest
employers in Union County is Trinitas Hospital Inc. The largest employer in Richmond County is
Staten Island University Hospital, followed by the United States Coast Guard. Kings Countys
largest employers are the New York City Transit Authority and Maimonides Medical Center Inc.
The Companys lending markets have been adversely affected by the recession, although not as
severely as some bubble markets in the southeast and west regions of the U.S. where rapidly
escalating real estate values fueled speculative overbuilding and ultimately significant
inventories of unsold homes and vacant commercial buildings causing a serve drop in real estate
values. Among the four county primary market area, home prices in Middlesex County took the
biggest hit, with declines between 25% and 30% from peak to trough. Home prices in Union County
were down 20% to 25% peak to trough, while in Kings and Richmond County home prices were down 5% to
10% from peak to trough. Recent trends in the northern New Jersey housing market show that prices
and resales have picked up modestly, though remain at fairly depressed levels. Recent trends in
the New York metropolitan housing markets shows that market values have fluctuated in recent years
and are currently at fairly depressed levels. The concentration of commercial real estate and
multi-family loans in the Companys portfolio have been negatively impacted by the regional
downturn in real estate markets.
Unemployment Trends
Comparative unemployment rates for the primary market area counties, as well as for the U.S,
New Jersey, and New York, are shown in Table 2.3. Unemployment rates for the primary market area
counties have suffered from increases in a manner similar to U.S. and state averages. Middlesex
County in New Jersey and Richmond County in New York have the lowest levels of unemployment.
Evidence of the recession impacting the regional economy however, is reflected in the notably
higher unemployment rates shown for March 2010 compared to a year ago, which were consistent with
the national trend and only slightly elevated from the state trend.
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.10 |
Table 2.3
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
Unemployment Trends (1)
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
Unemployment Trends (1)
[table omitted
Market Area Deposit Characteristics and Competition
The Companys retail deposit base is closely tied to the northern New Jersey and New York City
market areas and, in particular, the markets that are nearby to the Companys branch locations.
Table 2.4 displays deposit market trends from June 30, 2005 through June 30, 2009 for the primary
market counties. Additional data is also presented for the states of New Jersey and New York. The
data indicates that total deposits maintained by commercial banks increased and savings
institutions decreased in Union County, Richmond County and Kings County during the four year
period. Similar to the states of New Jersey and New York, commercial banks maintained a larger
market share of deposits than savings institutions in three of the Companys primary market area
counties. However, Richmond Countys savings institutions held a slightly larger market share of
deposits than the commercial banks. During the period covered in Table 2.4, savings institutions
experienced a decrease in deposit market share in the counties of Union, Kings and Richmond, and an
increase in deposit market share in Middlesex County.
Northfields largest holding and highest market share of deposits is in Richmond County, where
the Company maintains its largest branch presence. The Companys $831.6 million of deposits at the
Richmond County branches represented an 8.9% market share of bank and thrift
deposits at June 30, 2009. Middlesex County, where the Company maintains its second largest
branch presence and main office, accounted for $166.0 million of the Companys deposits and a 0.8%
market share of total Middlesex County bank and thrift deposits at June 30, 2009. Union County,
where the Company maintains its third largest branch presence, accounted for $93.6
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.11 |
[table omitted]
million of the Companys deposits and a 0.6% market share of total Union County bank and
thrift deposits at June 30, 2009. The Companys Kings County branch held $31.5 million of
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.12 |
deposits
at June 30, 2009, which provided for a 0.1% market share of Kings County bank and thrift deposits
at June 30, 2009.
As implied by the Companys low market shares of deposits, the Company faces significant
competition. Among the Companys competitors are much larger and more diversified institutions,
which have greater resources than maintained by Northfield. Financial institution competitors in
the Companys primary market area include other locally based thrifts and banks, as well as
regional, super regional and money center banks. From a competitive standpoint, Northfield has
sought to emphasize its community orientation in the markets served by its branches. Table 2.5
lists the Companys largest competitors in the four counties currently served by its branches,
based on deposit market share as noted parenthetically. The Companys deposit market share and
market rank have also been provided in Table 2.5.
Summary
The Companys primary market area is a large metropolitan market that provides significant
opportunities for growth in deposits and lending. Demographic trends are generally positive,
characterized with above average growth potential and an affluent population. At the same time,
similar to nationwide trends, real estate values have declined in the primary market and the
Company faces intense competition from larger and more diversified financial institutions
providing challenges to the Companys growth strategy. The Company currently has six new offices
under consideration in the local market, with long term plans for opening up to two branches
annually. These plans, coupled with the opportunities in the primary market area, appear to
support future balance sheet growth.
RP® Financial, LC. | MARKET AREA | |
II.13 |
Table 2.5
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
Market Area Deposit Competitors
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
Market Area Deposit Competitors
Location | Name | |
Kings County
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (26.7%) | |
Citigroup Inc. (12.8%) | ||
HSBC Holdings plc (9.9%) | ||
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (0.1%) - Rank of 37 | ||
Middlesex County
|
Wells Fargo & Co. (15.2%) | |
PNC Financial Services Group. (15.1%) | ||
Bank of America Corp. (11.5%) | ||
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (0.8%) Rank of 21 | ||
Richmond County
|
Banco Santander S.A.. (24.3%) | |
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (17.1%) | ||
New York Community Bancorp (15.6%) | ||
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (8.8%) Rank of 5 | ||
Union County
|
Wells Fargo & Co. (26.9%) | |
Bank of America Corp. (10.6%) | ||
Toronto-Dominion Bank. (7.8%) | ||
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (0.6%) Rank of 25 |
Source: FDIC & SNL Financial, LC.
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.1 |
III. PEER GROUP ANALYSIS
This chapter presents an analysis of Northfield Bancorps operations versus a group of
comparable savings institutions (the Peer Group) selected from the universe of all
publicly-traded savings institutions in a manner consistent with the regulatory valuation
guidelines. The basis of the pro forma market valuation of Northfield Bancorp is derived from the
pricing ratios of the Peer Group institutions, incorporating valuation adjustments for key
differences in relation to the Peer Group. Since no Peer Group can be exactly comparable to
Northfield Bancorp, key areas examined for differences are: financial condition; profitability,
growth and viability of earnings; asset growth; primary market area; dividends; liquidity of the
shares; marketing of the issue; management; and effect of government regulations and regulatory
reform.
Peer Group Selection
The Peer Group selection process is governed by the general parameters set forth in the
regulatory valuation guidelines. Accordingly, the Peer Group is comprised of only those
publicly-traded savings institutions whose common stock is either listed on a national exchange
(NYSE or AMEX), or is NASDAQ listed, since their stock trading activity is regularly reported and
generally more frequent than non-publicly traded and closely-held institutions. Institutions that
are not listed on a national exchange or NASDAQ are inappropriate, since the trading activity for
thinly-traded or closely-held stocks is typically highly irregular in terms of frequency and price
and thus may not be a reliable indicator of market value. We have also excluded from the Peer
Group those companies under acquisition or subject to rumored acquisition, mutual holding companies
and recent conversions, since their pricing ratios are subject to unusual distortion and/or have
limited trading history. A recent listing of the universe of all publicly-traded savings
institutions is included as Exhibit III-1.
Ideally, the Peer Group, which must have at least 10 members to comply with the regulatory
valuation guidelines, should be comprised of locally- or regionally-based institutions with
comparable resources, strategies and financial characteristics. There are approximately 149
publicly-traded institutions nationally and, thus, it is typically the case that the Peer Group
will be comprised of institutions with relatively comparable characteristics. To the extent that
differences exist between the converting institution and the Peer Group, valuation adjustments will
be applied to account for the differences. Since Northfield Bancorp will be a full public
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.2 |
company upon completion of the offering, we considered only full public companies to be viable
candidates for inclusion in the Peer Group. From the universe of publicly-traded thrifts, we
selected ten institutions with characteristics similar to those of Northfield Bancorp. In the
selection process, we applied two screens to the universe of all public companies that were
eligible for consideration:
| Screen #1 Mid-Atlantic institutions with assets $1-$10 billion; market value greater than $100 million; and core return on equity 0-10%. Six companies met the criteria for Screen #1. We excluded Northwest Bancshares, Inc of PA because it completed a 2nd step conversion in the previous twelve months and has not yet reported twelve months of operating earnings as a fully converted company. The remaining five companies were included in the Peer Group: ESB Financial Corp of Pennsylvania; ESSA Bancorp, Inc. of Pennsylvania; Flushing Financial Corp. of New York; OceanFirst Financial Corp of New Jersey; and Provident New York Bancorp, Inc. of New York. Exhibit III-2 provides financial and public market pricing characteristics of all publicly-traded Mid-Atlantic thrifts. | ||
| Screen #2 New England institutions with assets $1-$10 billion; market value greater than $100 million; and core return on equity 0-10% Five companies met the criteria for Screen #2 and all five were included in the Peer Group: Brookline Bancorp of Massachusetts, Danvers Bancorp of Massachusetts, NewAlliance Bancshares of Connecticut, United Financial Bancorp of Massachusetts; and Westfield Financial of Massachusetts. Exhibit III-3 provides financial and public market pricing characteristics of all publicly-traded New England thrifts. |
Table 3.1 shows the general characteristics of each of the 10 Peer Group companies and Exhibit
III-4 provides summary demographic and deposit market share data for the primary market areas
served by each of the Peer Group companies. While there are expectedly some differences between
the Peer Group companies and Northfield Bancorp, we believe that the Peer Group companies, on
average, provide a good basis for valuation subject to valuation adjustments. The following
sections present a comparison of Northfield Bancorps financial condition, income and expense
trends, loan composition, interest rate risk and credit risk versus the Peer Group as of the most
recent publicly available date.
In addition to the selection criteria used to identify the Peer Group companies, a summary
description of the key comparable characteristics of each of the Peer Group companies relative to
Northfield Bancorps characteristics is detailed below.
| NewAlliance Bancshares of CT. NewAlliance Bancshares is the largest company in the Peer Group and operates through a total of 88 offices in Connecticut and Massachusetts. NewAlliance Bancshares maintains a broadly diversified asset base funded primarily by deposits and borrowed funds. A large |
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.3 |
Table 3.1
Peer Group of Publicly-Traded Thrifts
May 14, 2010
Peer Group of Publicly-Traded Thrifts
May 14, 2010
Operating | Total | Fiscal | Conv. | Stock | Market | |||||||||||||||
Ticker | Financial Institution | Exchange | Primary Market | Strategy(1) | Assets(2) | Offices | Year | Date | Price | Value | ||||||||||
($) | ($Mil) | |||||||||||||||||||
NAL |
NewAlliance Bancshares of CT | NYSE | New Haven, CT | Thrift | $8,501 | 88 | 12-31 | 04/04 | $12.38 | $1,312 | ||||||||||
FFIC |
Flushing Financial Corp of NY | NASDAQ | Lake Success, NY | Thrift | $4,183 | 19 | 12-31 | 11/95 | $14.26 | $ 444 | ||||||||||
PBNY |
Provident NY Bancorp, Inc. of NY | NASDAQ | Montebello, NY | Thrift | $2,936 | 35 | 09-30 | 01/04 | $10.14 | $ 394 | ||||||||||
BRKL |
Brookline Bancorp, Inc. of MA | NASDAQ | Brookline, MA | Thrift | $2,639 | 18 | 12-31 | 07/02 | $10.81 | $ 638 | ||||||||||
DNBK |
Danvers Bancorp, Inc. of MA | NASDAQ | Danvers, MA | Thrift | $2,455 | 26 | 12-31 | 01/08 | $16.36 | $ 355 | ||||||||||
OCFC |
OceanFirst Financial Corp. of NJ | NASDAQ | Toms River, NJ | Thrift | $2,199 | 23 | 12-31 | 07/96 | $13.24 | $ 249 | ||||||||||
ESBF |
ESB Financial Corp. of PA | NASDAQ | Ellwood City, PA | Thrift | $1,955 | 24 | 12-31 | 06/90 | $14.17 | $ 171 | ||||||||||
UBNK |
United Financial Bancorp of MA | NASDAQ | W. Springfield, MA | Thrift | $1,513 | 24 | 12-31 | 12/07 | $13.83 | $ 232 | ||||||||||
WFD |
Westfield Financial Inc. of MA | NASDAQ | Westfield, MA | Thrift | $1,200 | 11 | 12-31 | 01/07 | $ 8.69 | $ 257 | ||||||||||
ESSA |
ESSA Bancorp, Inc. of PA | NASDAQ | Stroudsburg, PA | Thrift | $1,059 | 14 | 09-30 | 04/07 | $12.99 | $ 179 |
NOTES: | (1) | Operating strategies are: Thrift=Traditional Thrift, M.B.=Mortgage Banker, R.E.=Real Estate Developer, Div.=Diversified and Ret.=Retail Banking. |
(2) | Most recent quarter end available (E=Estimated and P=Pro Forma). |
Source: SNL Financial, LC.
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.4 |
securities portfolio comprised primarily of MBS has limited asset quality problems and supports the comparability to Northfields balance sheet. NewAlliance Bancshares ROA approximates the Peer Group average as the benefit of low operating expenses offset its lower net interest income (the significant investment in securities may be a factor in this regard). At March 31, 2010, NewAlliance Bancshares reported total assets of $8.5 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 10.4%. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, NewAlliance Bancshares reported earnings equal to 0.60% of average assets. NewAlliance Bancshares had a market capitalization of $1.3 billion at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, NewAlliance Bancshares was selected for the Peer Group due to large market capitalization, concentration of cash and investments and comparability of ROA. | |||
| Flushing Financial Corp of NY. Flushing Financial operates through a total of 19 offices in the greater New York metropolitan area. Flushing Federal completed its conversion to stock form in 1995 and is therefore a well seasoned public company. Flushing Financial maintains a diversified asset base funded primarily by deposits and borrowed funds. Like Northfield, Flushing Financial maintains a concentration of multi-family and commercial real estate mortgage loans on its balance sheet. As a result, Flushing Financial maintains a slightly elevated level of NPAs than the Peer Group average. Flushing Financials ROA slightly exceeds the Peer Group average primarily due to its low operating expenses, which offset a lower level of non-interest income. At March 31, 2010, Flushing Financial reported total assets of $4.2 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 8.4%. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, Flushing Financial reported earnings equal to 0.66% of average assets. Flushing Financial had a market capitalization of $444 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, Flushing Financial was selected for the Peer Group based on its shared market and comparability of lending strategy. | ||
| Provident NY Bancorp of NY. Provident NY Bancorp operates through a total of 35 offices in the greater New York metropolitan area. Provident NY Bancorp completed its conversion to stock form in 2004. Provident NY Bancorp maintains a diversified asset base funded primarily by deposits and borrowed funds. Like Northfield, Provident NY Bancorp maintains a large securities portfolio comprised primarily of MBS, a factor that has limited asset yields to some extent but has also supported favorable credit quality measures. Provident NY Bancorps ROA exceeds the Peer Group average primarily because of a low cost of funds and strong levels of non-interest income. At March 31, 2010, Provident NY Bancorp reported total assets of $2.9 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 8.8%. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, Provident NY Bancorp reported earnings equal to 0.83% of average assets. Provident NY Bancorp had a market capitalization of $394 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, Provident NY Bancorp was selected for the Peer Group based on its shared market and high level of investment securities on its balance sheet. | ||
| Brookline Bancorp of MA. Brookline Bancorp operates through a total of 18 offices in the Boston metropolitan area. Previously a mutual holding company institution, Brookline Bancorp completed its second-set conversion to full stock |
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.5 |
form in 2002. Brookline Bancorps balance sheet is concentrated in loans receivable, with a diversified mix of commercial real estate and multi-family, consumer and 1-4 family loans, funded with deposits and borrowed funds. Like Northfield, Brookline Bancorp has a concentration in commercial real estate and multi-family loans and operates with excess capital. Brookline Bancorps asset quality is very strong, with credit quality measures more attractive than the Peer Group average. Brookline Bancorps ROA exceeds the Peer Group average primarily because of a higher levels of net interest income and low levels of operating expense. At March 31, 2010, Brookline Bancorp reported total assets of $2.6 billion and a high tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 16.9%. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, Brookline Bancorp reported earnings equal to 0.87% of average assets. Brookline Bancorp had a market capitalization of $638 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, Brookline Bancorp was selected for the Peer Group based on its concentration of commercial real estate and multi-family loans and its above market capital ratios. | |||
| Danvers Bancorp, Inc. of MA. Danvers Bancorp operates through a total of 26 offices in the northern Boston metropolitan area. Danvers Bancorp completed its second-set conversion to full stock form in 2008, and is the newest public company in the Peer Group. Danvers Bancorps balance sheet is diversified with a concentration of commercial real estate and multi-family loans funded with deposits and, to a much lesser extent, borrowed funds. Like Northfield, Danvers Bancorp has a concentration in commercial real estate and multi-family loans and has a large portfolio of investment securities. Danvers Bancorps ROA is lower than the Peer Group average primarily because of higher levels of operating expense, which offset an advantage in net interest income. At March 31, 2010, Danvers Bancorp reported total assets of $2.5 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 10.4%. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, Danvers Bancorp reported earnings equal to 0.39% of average assets. Danvers Bancorp had a market capitalization of $355 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, Danvers Bancorp was selected for the Peer Group based on its concentration of commercial real estate and multi-family loans. | ||
| OceanFirst Financial Corp of NJ. OceanFirst Financial operates through a total of 23 offices in eastern New Jersey. OceanFirst Financial completed its conversion to stock form in 1996 and is a well seasoned public company. OceanFirst Financials balance sheet is diversified with a concentration of commercial real estate and multi-family loans funded with deposits and, to a much lesser extent, borrowed funds. Although OceanFirst Financial has achieved moderate balance sheet diversification, total assets have a concentration of 1-4 family loans and funding includes deposits and an above average reliance on borrowed funds. OceanFirst Financials ROA exceeds the Peer Group average primarily because of lower funding costs (contributing to a higher level of net interest income) and higher levels of non-interest income which combine to overcome operating expenses. At March 31, 2010, OceanFirst Financial reported total assets of $2.2 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 8.5%. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, OceanFirst Financial reported earnings equal to 0.81% of average assets. OceanFirst Financial had a market capitalization of $249 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general |
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.6 |
selection criteria discussed above, OceanFirst Financial was selected for the Peer Group based on its shared market area. | |||
| ESB Financial Corp. of PA. ESB Financial operates through a total of 24 offices in western Pennsylvania. ESB Financial completed its conversion to stock form in 1990 and is a longest seasoned public company. ESB Financials balance sheet exhibits a concentration of investment securities funded with deposits and a concentration of borrowings. The high percentage of investments (including MBS) in the balance sheet increases ESB Financials attractiveness as a Peer Group member and supports ESB Financials strong credit quality measures. ESB Financials ROA approximates the Peer Group average primarily because lower net interest income (attributable to lower yields on investments and higher funding costs) is offset by lower operating expenses. At March 31, 2010, ESB Financial reported total assets of $2.0 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 6.4%. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, ESB Financial reported earnings equal to 0.60% of average assets. ESB Financial had a market capitalization of $171 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, ESB Financial was selected for the Peer Group based on the concentration of investment securities on its balance sheet and the resulting lower levels of net interest income and operating expense. | ||
| United Financial Bancorp of MA. United Financial operates through 24 offices in western Massachusetts. Previously a mutual holding company institution, United Financial completed its second-set conversion to full stock form in 2007. United Financial maintains a broadly diversified asset base funded primarily by deposits and, to a lesser extent, borrowed funds. Like Northfield, United Financials balance sheet includes a large concentration of commercial real estate and multi-family loans and a higher than average tangible equity-to-assets ratio, both factors which increase its attractiveness as a Peer Group member. United Financials ROA is lower than the Peer Group average as the benefit of its higher net interest income and non-interest income are more than offset by higher operating expenses and non-operating losses. At March 31, 2010, United Financial reported total assets of $1.5 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 14.3% which reflects the impact of United Financials recent second step conversion. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, United Financial reported a return on average assets of 0.40%. United Financial had a market capitalization of $232 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, United Financial was selected for the Peer Group based on its concentration of commercial real estate and multi-family loans and its above market capital ratios. | ||
| Westfield Financial Inc of MA. Westfield Financial operates through 11 offices in western Massachusetts. Previously a mutual holding company institution, Westfield Financial completed its second-set conversion to full stock form in 2007. Westfield Financials balance sheet exhibits a concentration of investment securities and commercial real estate and multi-family loans, funded with a mixture of deposits and borrowings, and supported by a significantly above average tangible equity-to-assets ratio. The high percentage of investments (including MBS) and the above market capital ratios increase Westfield Financials attractiveness as a Peer Group member and supports Westfield |
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.7 |
Financials strong credit quality measures. Westfield Financials ROA is lower than the Peer Group average as the concentration of investment securities results in lower levels of net interest income. At March 31, 2010, Westfield Financial reported total assets of $1.2 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 20.5% which reflects the impact of Westfield Financials recent second step conversion. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, Westfield Financial reported a return on average assets of 0.47%. Westfield Financial had a market capitalization of $257 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, Westfield Financial was selected for the Peer Group based on its concentration of investment securities, its secondary concentration of commercial real estate and multi-family loans, and its above market capital ratios. | |||
| ESSA Bancorp of PA. Reporting the smallest balance sheet in the Peer Group, Westfield Financial operates through 14 offices in north-eastern Pennsylvania. ESSA Bancorp completed its conversion to stock form in 2007. Although ESSA Bancorp has achieved moderate balance sheet diversification, total assets have a concentration of 1-4 family loans and funding includes deposits and an above average reliance on borrowed funds. Because of the recent conversion to stock form, ESSA Bancorp operates with above market tangible equity-to-assets ratios. ESSA Bancorps ROA is slightly lower than the Peer Group average as an above average level of non-interest income is most than offset by a higher cost of funds (attributable to the reliance on borrowings) and higher operating expenses. At March 31, 2010, ESSA Bancorp reported total assets of $1.1 billion and a tangible equity-to-assets ratio of 16.9% which reflects the impact of ESSA Bancorps recent conversion. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2010, ESSA Bancorp reported a return on average assets of 0.53%. ESSA Bancorp had a market capitalization of $179 million at May 14, 2010. In addition to the general selection criteria discussed above, ESSA Bancorp was selected for the Peer Group based on its above market capital ratios. |
In aggregate, the Peer Group companies maintained a higher level of tangible equity as the
industry average (12.3% of assets versus 10.0% for all public companies), generated higher core
earnings as a percent of average assets (0.59% core ROAA versus a net loss of 0.25% for all public
companies), and earned a higher core ROE (4.67% core ROE versus negative 1.33% for all public
companies). Overall, the Peer Groups average P/TB ratio and average core P/E multiple were above
the respective averages for all publicly-traded thrifts.
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.8 |
[table omitted]
Ideally, the Peer Group companies would be comparable to Northfield Bancorp in terms of all of
the selection criteria, but the universe of publicly-traded thrifts does not provide for an
appropriate number of such companies. However, in general, the companies selected for the Peer
Group were fairly comparable to Northfield Bancorp, as will be highlighted in the following
comparative analysis.
Financial Condition
Table 3.2 shows comparative balance sheet measures for Northfield Bancorp and the Peer Group,
reflecting the expected similarities and some differences given the selection procedures outlined
above. The Companys and the Peer Groups ratios reflect balances as of March 31, 2010.
Northfield Bancorps equity-to-assets ratio of 18.9% exceeded the Peer Groups average net worth
ratio of 14.0%. With the infusion of the net conversion proceeds, the Companys pro forma
equity-to-assets ratio should further exceed the Peer Groups equity-to-assets ratio. Tangible
equity-to-assets ratios for the Company and the Peer Group equaled 18.1% and 12.1%, respectively.
The increase in Northfield Bancorps pro forma capital position will be favorable from a risk
perspective and in terms of future earnings potential that could be realized through leverage and
lower funding costs. At the same time, the Companys higher pro forma capitalization will
initially depress return on equity. Both Northfield Bancorps and the Peer Groups banking
subsidiaries capital ratios reflected capital surpluses with respect to the regulatory capital
requirements, with the Northfield Bank ratios currently approximating the Peer Groups ratios. On
a pro forma basis, Northfield Banks regulatory surpluses will become more significant than
maintained by the Peer Group banking subsidiaries on average.
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.9 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.10 |
The interest-earning asset compositions for the Company and the Peer Group varied
significantly, with Northfield Bancorp maintaining significantly greater levels of investment
securities and MBS and significantly lower levels of loans. The Companys combined cash and
investment securities ratio of 60.9% exceeded the comparable Peer Group ratio of 31.2%.
Comparatively, the Companys loans-to-assets ratio of 34.3% was lower than the comparable ratio for
the Peer Group of 62.5%. Overall, Northfield Bancorps interest-earning assets amounted to 95.2%
of assets, which was slightly above the comparable Peer Group ratio of 93.7%. The Peer Groups
non-interest earning assets included bank-owned life insurance (BOLI) equal to 1.6% of assets and
goodwill/intangibles equal to 1.8% of assets, while the Company maintained BOLI equal to 2.1% of
assets and a goodwill/intangibles equal to 0.8% of assets.
Northfield Bancorps funding liabilities reflected a funding strategy that was generally
comparable to that of the Peer Groups funding composition. The Companys deposits equaled 66.4%
of assets, which was slightly above the Peer Groups ratio of 61.8%. Comparatively, the Company
maintained a slightly lower level of borrowings than the Peer Group, as indicated by
borrowings-to-assets ratios of 14.0% and 22.7% for Northfield Bancorp and the Peer Group,
respectively. Total interest-bearing liabilities maintained by the Company and the Peer Group, as
a percent of assets, were 80.4% and 84.5% respectively.
A key measure of balance sheet strength for a thrift institution is its IEA/IBL ratio.
Presently, the Companys IEA/IBL ratio is slightly higher than the Peer Groups ratio, based on
IEA/IBL ratios of 118.4% and 110.9%, respectively. The additional capital realized from stock
proceeds should serve to provide Northfield Bancorp with an IEA/IBL ratio that further exceeds the
Peer Groups ratio, as the increase in capital provided by the infusion of stock proceeds will
serve to lower the level of interest-bearing liabilities funding assets and will be primarily
deployed into interest-earning assets.
The growth rate section of Table 3.2 shows annual growth rates for key balance sheet items.
Northfield Bancorps and the Peer Groups growth rates are based on annual growth for the twelve
months ended March 31, 2010. Northfield Bancorp recorded asset growth of 15.5%, which was well
above the Peer Groups asset growth rate of 8.7%. Asset growth for Northfield Bancorp was
sustained through a 14.9% increase in cash and investments and a 17.0% increase in loans. Asset
growth for the Peer Group was sustained by a 3.7% increase in cash and investments and a 6.7%
increase in loans.
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.11 |
Asset growth for Northfield Bancorp was funded largely through a 25.0% increase in deposits,
which was supplemented by a 4.3% increase in borrowings. Asset growth for the Peer Group was
funded through deposit growth of 16.4%, which also funded a 3.6% reduction in the Peer Groups
borrowings. The Companys tangible capital increased by 1.5% during the twelve months ended March
31, 2010, primarily the result of earnings retention. The Peer Groups tangible capital ratio
increased by 6.5% as a result of profitable operations and a limited number of corporate
transactions completed by Peer Group companies. The Companys post-conversion capital growth rate
will initially be constrained by maintenance of a higher pro forma capital position. Dividend
payments and stock repurchases, pursuant to regulatory limitations and guidelines, could also
potentially continue to slow the Companys capital growth rate in the longer term following the
stock offering.
Income and Expense Components
Table 3.3 displays statements of operations for the Company and the Peer Group. The Companys
and the Peer Groups ratios are based on earnings for the twelve months ended March 31, 2010.
Northfield Bancorp and the Peer Group reported net income to average assets ratios of 0.65% and
0.62%, respectively. Higher levels of non-interest operating income and lower loan loss provisions
represented earnings advantages for the Peer Group, while lower operating expenses and slightly
higher net interest income represented earnings advantages for the Company. Non-operating gains
had slight positive impacts on the respective earnings of the Company and the Peer Group.
The Companys stronger net interest income was realized through maintenance of a lower
interest expense ratio, which was largely offset by the Companys lower interest income ratio. The
Companys lower interest income ratio resulted from a lower overall yield earned on
interest-earning assets (4.38 versus 5.07% for the Peer Group), the result of the concentration of
lower yielding cash and investments in the Companys balance sheet. Likewise, the Companys lower
interest expense ratio was supported by a lower cost of funds (1.70% versus 2.15% for the Company).
Overall, Northfield Bancorp and the Peer Group reported net interest income to average assets
ratios of 2.98% and 2.94%, respectively.
In another key area of core earnings strength, the Company maintained a lower level of
operating expenses than the Peer Group. For the period covered in Table 3.3, the Company
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.12 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.13 |
and the Peer Group reported operating expense to average assets ratios of 1.82% and 2.21%,
respectively. The Companys lower operating expense ratio reflects the Companys the concentration
of cash and investments and commercial real estate lending emphasis which generally are relatively
high balance loans and, thus, tend to be less costly to service compared to a similarly sized
portfolio of smaller balance 1-4 family loans. Accordingly, consistent with the lower staffing
needs of the Companys operations, assets per full time equivalent employee equaled $9.4 million
for Northfield Bancorp versus $7.6 million for the Peer Group.
When viewed together, net interest income and operating expenses provide considerable insight
into a thrifts earnings strength, since those sources of income and expenses are typically the
most prominent components of earnings and are generally more predictable than losses and gains
realized from the sale of assets or other non-recurring activities. In this regard, as measured by
their expense coverage ratios (net interest income divided by operating expenses), the Companys
earnings were more favorable than the Peer Groups. Expense coverage ratios posted by Northfield
Bancorp and the Peer Group equaled 1.64x and 1.33x, respectively.
Sources of non-interest operating income provided a smaller contribution to the Companys
earnings, with such income amounting to 0.24% and 0.52% of Northfield Bancorps and the Peer
Groups average assets, respectively. The Companys relatively low earnings contribution realized
from non-interest operating income is indicative of its limited diversification into areas that
generate revenues from non-interest sources. Taking non-interest operating income into account in
comparing the Companys and the Peer Groups earnings, Northfield Bancorps efficiency ratio
(operating expenses, net of amortization of intangibles, as a percent of the sum of non-interest
operating income and net interest income) of 56.6% was more favorable than the Peer Groups
efficiency ratio of 63.9%.
Loan loss provisions had a larger impact on the Companys earnings, with loan loss provisions
established by the Company and the Peer Group equaling 0.47% and 0.28% of average assets,
respectively. The higher level of loan provisions established by the Company was consistent with
its less favorable credit quality measures for non-performing loans and non-performing assets.
Net gains and losses realized from the sale of assets and other non-operating items, including
write downs and losses on the sale of investment securities, equaled a net gain of 0.08% of average
assets for the Company and a net gain equal to 0.01% of average assets for
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.14 |
the Peer Group. The net gain recorded by the Company was the result of a gains realized on
securities transactions. Accordingly, the non-operating net gain recorded by the Company was not
considered to be part of its core earnings. Extraordinary items were not a factor in either the
Companys or the Peer Groups earnings.
Taxes had a more significant impact on the Companys earnings, as Northfield Bancorp and the
Peer Group posted effective tax rates of 35.13% and 26.48%, respectively. As indicated in the
prospectus, the Companys effective marginal tax rate is equal to 40.0%.
Loan Composition
Table 3.4 presents data related to the Companys and the Peer Groups loan portfolio
compositions (including the investment in mortgage-backed securities). The Companys loan
portfolio composition reflected a significantly lower concentration of 1-4 family permanent
mortgage loans compared to the Peer Group (5.63% of assets versus 29.52% for the Peer Group).
Comparatively, the Companys portfolio exhibited concentrations in the level of MBS (44.15% of
assets versus 20.26% for the Peer Group) and commercial real estate and multi-family loans (24.78%
of assets versus 20.88% for the Peer Group). The differences in these items defines the primary
difference between the Company and the Peer Group, with the concentration of MBS reducing the
overall credit risk in the balance sheet but also placing downward pressure on yields and interest
income. Overall diversification into higher risk and higher yielding types of lending was
comparable between the Company and the Peer Group, as the combined percentage of construction,
commercial real estate, multi-family, commercial business and consumer loans for Northfield Bancorp
and the Peer Group was 29.48% and 33.10%, respectively. The primary area of diversification for
both Northfield Bancorp and the Peer Group was commercial real estate and multi-family loans.
Overall, the composition of the Companys assets provides for a lower risk weighted
assets-to-assets ratio compared to the Peer Groups ratio (49.90% versus 63.04% for the Peer
Group).
Interest Rate Risk
Table 3.5 reflects various key ratios highlighting the relative interest rate risk exposure of
the Company versus the Peer Group. In terms of balance sheet composition, Northfield Bancorps
interest rate risk characteristics were considered to be slightly more attractive than
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.15 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.16 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.17 |
the Peer Groups measures. Most notably, the Companys tangible equity-to-assets ratio and
IEA/IBL ratio exceeded the Peer Group ratios, while the Companys lower level of non-interest
earning assets represented an advantage with respect to having to depend less on the yield-cost
spread to sustain the net interest margin. On a pro forma basis, the infusion of stock proceeds
should serve to provide the Company with further comparative advantages over the Peer Groups
balance sheet interest rate risk characteristics, based on the expected increases that will be
realized in Companys equity-to-assets and IEA/IBL ratios.
To analyze interest rate risk associated with the net interest margin, we reviewed quarterly
changes in net interest income as a percent of average assets for Northfield Bancorp and the Peer
Group. In general, the more significant fluctuations in the Companys ratios implied that the
interest rate risk associated with the Companys net interest income was greater compared to the
Peer Groups, based on the interest rate environment that prevailed during the period covered in
Table 3.5. The stability of the Companys net interest margin should be enhanced by the infusion
of stock proceeds, as interest rate sensitive liabilities will be funding a lower portion of
Northfield Bancorps assets and the proceeds will be substantially deployed into interest-earning
assets.
Credit Risk
Overall, based on a comparison of credit quality measures, the Companys credit risk exposure
was considered to be more significant than Peer Groups. As shown in Table 3.6, the Companys NPA
and NPL ratios equaled 2.46% and 6.79%, respectively, versus comparable measures of 1.02% and 1.41%
for the Peer Group. The Companys and Peer Groups loss reserves as a percent of NPLs equaled
34.26% and 105.80%, respectively. Loss reserves maintained as percent of net loans receivable
equaled 2.33% for the Company, versus 1.13% for the Peer Group. Net loan charge-offs were more
comparable for the Company, as net loan charge-offs for the Company equaled 0.27% of loans versus
0.26% of loans for the Peer Group.
Summary
Based on the above analysis, RP Financial concluded that the Peer Group forms a reasonable
basis for determining the pro forma market value of the Company. Such general characteristics as
asset size, capital position, interest-earning asset composition, funding
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.18 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | PEER GROUP ANALYSIS | |
III.19 |
composition, core earnings measures, loan composition, credit quality and exposure to interest rate
risk all tend to support the reasonability of the Peer Group from a financial standpoint. Those
areas where differences exist will be addressed in the form of valuation adjustments to the extent
necessary.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.1 |
IV. VALUATION ANALYSIS
Introduction
This chapter presents the valuation analysis and methodology, prepared pursuant to the
regulatory valuation guidelines, and valuation adjustments and assumptions used to determine the
estimated pro forma market value of the common stock to be issued in conjunction with the Companys
conversion transaction.
Appraisal Guidelines
The OTS written appraisal guidelines specify the market value methodology for estimating the
pro forma market value of an institution pursuant to a mutual-to-stock conversion. Pursuant to
this methodology: (1) a peer group of comparable publicly-traded institutions is selected; (2) a
financial and operational comparison of the subject company to the peer group is conducted to
discern key differences; and (3) a valuation analysis in which the pro forma market value of the
subject company is determined based on the market pricing of the peer group as of the date of
valuation, incorporating valuation adjustments for key differences. In addition, the pricing
characteristics of recent conversions, both at conversion and in the aftermarket, must be
considered.
RP Financial Approach to the Valuation
The valuation analysis herein complies with such regulatory approval guidelines. Accordingly,
the valuation incorporates a detailed analysis based on the Peer Group, discussed in Chapter III,
which constitutes fundamental analysis techniques. Additionally, the valuation incorporates a
technical analysis of recently completed stock conversions, particularly second-step conversions,
including closing pricing and aftermarket trading of such offerings. It should be noted that these
valuation analyses cannot possibly fully account for all the market forces which impact trading
activity and pricing characteristics of a particular stock on a given day.
The pro forma market value determined herein is a preliminary value for the Companys
to-be-issued stock. Throughout the conversion process, RP Financial will: (1) review changes in
Northfields operations and financial condition; (2) monitor Northfields operations and financial
condition relative to the Peer Group to identify any fundamental changes; (3) monitor
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.2 |
the external factors affecting value including, but not limited to, local and national
economic conditions, interest rates, and the stock market environment, including the market for
thrift stocks and Northfields stock specifically; and (4) monitor pending conversion offerings,
particularly second-step conversions, (including those in the offering phase), both regionally and
nationally. If, during the conversion process, material changes occur, RP Financial will determine
if updated valuation reports should be prepared to reflect such changes and their related impact on
value, if any. RP Financial will also prepare a final valuation update at the closing of the
offering to determine if the prepared valuation analysis and resulting range of value continues to
be appropriate.
The appraised value determined herein is based on the current market and operating environment
for the Company and for all thrifts. Subsequent changes in the local and national economy, the
legislative and regulatory environment, the stock market, interest rates, and other external forces
(such as natural disasters or major world events), which may occur from time to time (often with
great unpredictability) may materially impact the market value of all thrift stocks, including
Northfields value, or Northfields value alone. To the extent a change in factors impacting the
Companys value can be reasonably anticipated and/or quantified, RP Financial has incorporated the
estimated impact into the analysis.
Valuation Analysis
A fundamental analysis discussing similarities and differences relative to the Peer Group was
presented in Chapter III. The following sections summarize the key differences between the Company
and the Peer Group and how those differences affect the pro forma valuation. Emphasis is placed on
the specific strengths and weaknesses of the Company relative to the Peer Group in such key areas
as financial condition, profitability, growth and viability of earnings, asset growth, primary
market area, dividends, liquidity of the shares, marketing of the issue, management, and the effect
of government regulations and/or regulatory reform. We have also considered the market for thrift
stocks, in particular new issues, to assess the impact on value of the Company coming to market at
this time.
1. Financial Condition
The financial condition of an institution is an important determinant in pro forma market
value because investors typically look to such factors as liquidity, capital, asset composition and
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.3 |
quality, and funding sources in assessing investment attractiveness. The similarities and
differences in the Companys and the Peer Groups financial strengths are noted as follows:
§ | Overall A/L Composition. In comparison to the Peer Group, the Companys interest-earning asset composition showed a higher concentration of investments and a lower concentration of loans. The Companys lending emphasis on commercial real estate/multi-family translated into greater diversification into higher risk and higher yielding types of loans. Overall, in comparison to the Peer Group, the Companys interest-earning asset composition provided for a lower yield earned on interest-earning assets and a lower risk weighted assets-to-assets ratio. Northfields funding composition reflected a greater level of deposits and a lower level of borrowings than the comparable Peer Group ratios which translated into a lower cost of funds for the Company. Overall, as a percent of assets, the Company maintained a slightly higher level of interest-earning assets and a lower level of interest-bearing liabilities compared to the Peer Groups ratios, which resulted in a higher IEA/IBL ratio for the Company. After factoring in the impact of the net stock proceeds, the Companys IEA/IBL ratio should further exceed the Peer Groups ratio. On balance, RP Financial concluded that asset/liability composition was a slight positive factor in our adjustment for financial condition. | ||
§ | Credit Quality. The Companys ratios for non-performing assets and non-performing loans were less favorable than the comparable Peer Group ratios. Loss reserves as a percent of non-performing loans were lower for the Company, while the Company maintained higher loss reserves as a percent of loans. Net loan charge-offs were a lower factor for the Company versus the Peer Group. The Companys risk weighted assets-to-assets ratio was lower than the Peer Groups ratio. Overall, taking into consideration the recent growth in loans and the significantly higher level of NPLs, RP Financial concluded that credit quality was a moderate negative factor in our adjustment for financial condition. | ||
§ | Balance Sheet Liquidity. The Company operated with a higher level of cash and investment securities relative to the Peer Group (60.9% of assets versus 31.2% for the Peer Group). Following the infusion of stock proceeds, the Companys cash and investments ratio is expected to increase as the proceeds retained at the holding company level will be initially deployed into investments. The Companys future borrowing capacity was considered to be higher than the Peer Group, given the slightly lower level of borrowings currently funding the Companys assets. Overall, RP Financial concluded that balance sheet liquidity was a positive factor in our adjustment for financial condition. | ||
§ | Funding Liabilities. The Companys interest-bearing funding composition reflected a slightly higher concentration of deposits and a slightly lower concentration of borrowings relative to the comparable Peer Group ratios, which translated into a lower cost of funds for the Company. Total interest-bearing liabilities as a percent of assets were lower for the Company. Following the stock offering, the increase in the Companys capital position will further reduce the level of interest-bearing liabilities funding the Companys assets. Overall, RP Financial concluded that funding liabilities were a slightly positive factor in our adjustment for financial condition. | ||
§ | Capital. The Company currently operates with a higher equity-to-assets ratio than the Peer Group. Following the stock offering, Northfields pro forma capital position will strongly exceed the Peer Groups equity-to-assets ratio. The Companys higher |
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.4 |
pro forma capital position implies greater leverage capacity, lower dependence on interest-bearing liabilities to fund assets and a greater capacity to absorb unanticipated losses. At the same time, the Companys more significant capital surplus will make it difficult to achieve a competitive ROE. On balance, RP Financial concluded that capital strength was a slightly positive factor in our adjustment for financial condition. |
Although Northfield exhibited several factors that were more favorable than the Peer Group in
terms of financial condition, the negative adjustments related to credit quality versus the Peer
Group were offsetting. On balance, Northfields balance sheet strength was considered to be
comparable to the Peer Group and, thus, no valuation adjustment was applied for the Companys
financial condition.
2. Profitability, Growth and Viability of Earnings
Earnings are a key factor in determining pro forma market value, as the level and risk
characteristics of an institutions earnings stream and the prospects and ability to generate
future earnings heavily influence the multiple that the investment community will pay for earnings.
The major factors considered in the valuation are described below.
§ | Reported Earnings. The Companys reported earnings were slightly higher than the Peer Groups on a ROAA basis (0.65% of average assets versus 0.62% for the Peer Group). The Companys slightly higher return was attributable to a lower level of operating expenses, which were somewhat offset by the Companys higher level of provisions for loan losses and lower level of non-interest income. Net interest income before loss provisions was substantially comparably. Reinvestment of stock proceeds into interest-earning assets will serve to increase the Companys earnings, with the benefit of reinvesting proceeds expected to be somewhat offset by implementation of additional stock benefit plans in connection with the second-step offering. Overall, the Companys pro forma reported earnings were considered to be slightly stronger than the Peer Group and, thus, RP Financial concluded that this was a slightly positive in our adjustment for profitability, growth and viability of earnings. | ||
§ | Core Earnings. Net interest income, operating expenses, non-interest operating income and loan loss provisions were reviewed in assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Companys and the Peer Groups core earnings. The Company operated with a comparable net interest margin, a lower operating expense ratio and a lower level of non-interest operating income. The Companys lower ratio for operating expenses translated into a higher expense coverage ratio in comparison to the Peer Groups ratio (equal to 1.64x versus 1.33x for the Peer Group). Similarly, the Companys efficiency ratio of 56.6% was more favorable than the Peer Groups efficiency ratio of 63.9%. Loan loss provisions had a more significant impact on the Companys earnings. Overall, these measures, as well as the expected earnings benefits the Company should realize from the redeployment of stock proceeds into interest-earning assets and leveraging of post-conversion |
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.5 |
capital, which will be somewhat negated by expenses associated with the stock benefit plans and operating as a publicly-traded company, indicate that the Companys pro forma core earnings will be more favorable than the Peer Group. Therefore, RP Financial concluded that this was a slightly positive factor in our adjustment for profitability, growth and viability of earnings. | |||
§ | Interest Rate Risk. Quarterly changes in the Companys and the Peer Groups net interest income to average assets ratios indicated a higher degree of volatility was associated with the Companys net interest margin. Other measures of interest rate risk, such as capital and IEA/IBL ratios as well as level of non-interest earning assets was more attractive for the Company. On a pro forma basis, the infusion of stock proceeds can be expected to provide the Company with equity-to-assets and IEA/ILB ratios that will be further above the Peer Group ratios, as well as enhance the stability of the Companys net interest margin through the reinvestment of stock proceeds into interest-earning assets. On balance, RP Financial concluded that interest rate risk was a positive factor in our adjustment for profitability, growth and viability of earnings. | ||
§ | Credit Risk. Loan loss provisions were a larger factor in the Companys earnings (0.47% of average assets versus 0.28% of average assets for the Peer Group). In terms of future exposure to credit quality related losses, lending diversification into higher risk types of loans was more significant for the Company. Credit quality measures for non-performing assets and loss reserves as a percent of non-performing loans were less favorable for the Company, while the Company maintained higher loss reserves as a percent of loans. Overall, RP Financial concluded that credit risk was a negative factor in our adjustment for profitability, growth and viability of earnings. | ||
§ | Earnings Growth Potential. Several factors were considered in assessing earnings growth potential. First, the Company maintained a comparable ratio of net interest income to average assets versus the Peer Group. Second, the infusion of stock proceeds will provide the Company with more significant growth potential through leverage than currently maintained by the Peer Group. Third, the Peer Groups higher ratio of non-interest operating income and the Companys lower operating expense ratio were viewed as respective advantages to sustain earnings growth during periods when net interest margins come under pressure as the result of adverse changes in interest rates. Overall, earnings growth potential was considered to be a slightly positive factor in our adjustment for profitability, growth and viability of earnings. | ||
§ | Return on Equity. Currently, the Companys core ROE is above the Peer Groups ROE. As the result of the significant increase in capital that will be realized from the infusion of net stock proceeds into the Companys equity, the Companys pro forma return equity on a core earnings basis will initially be lower than the Peer Groups core ROE. Accordingly, this was a negative factor in the adjustment for profitability, growth and viability of earnings. |
On balance, Northfields pro forma earnings strength was considered to be more favorable than
the Peer Groups and, thus, a slight upward adjustment was applied for profitability, growth and
viability of earnings.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.6 |
3. Asset Growth
The Companys asset growth rate was well above the Peer Groups growth rate during the period
covered in our comparative analysis, based on growth rates of 15.5% and 8.7%, respectively. Asset
growth for the Company and the Peer Group consisted of a combination of loans and cash and
investments, with the Companys growth rates for both loans and cash and investments exceeding the
comparable Peer Group growth rates. Deposit growth has similarly exceeded the Peer Group and,
pursuant to the Companys business plans, the opening of several branches in the next few years
suggest that deposit growth trends may continue. On a pro forma basis, the Companys tangible
equity-to-assets ratio will exceed the Peer Groups tangible equity-to-assets ratio, indicating
greater leverage capacity for the Company. On balance, a moderate upward adjustment was applied
for asset growth.
4. Primary Market Area
The general condition of an institutions market area has an impact on value, as future
success is in part dependent upon opportunities for profitable activities in the local market
served. Northfield serves Staten Island, Brooklyn and northeastern New Jersey through the main
office and 17 branch locations. Operating in a relatively slow growing densely populated market
area provides the Company with growth opportunities, but such growth must be achieved in a highly
competitive market environment. The Company competes against significantly larger institutions
that provide a larger array of services and have significantly larger branch networks than
maintained by Northfield. The competitiveness of the market area is highlighted by the Companys
relatively low market share of deposits in the counties where its branches are maintained.
The Peer Group companies generally operate in less densely populated markets compared to the
New York and northeastern New Jersey market served by the Company. Population growth for the
primary market area counties served by the Peer Group companies reflect a wide range of growth
rates, but on average was comparable to Northfields primary market area population growth rate.
Richmond County, where the Company maintains its main office and the majority of its branches, has
a relatively high per capita income compared to the Peer Groups average and median per capita
income measures, while the Peer Group companies also generally operate in markets with a lower cost
of living than Richmond County. The average and median deposit market shares maintained by the
Peer Group companies were significantly above the Companys market share of deposits in Richmond
County. Overall, the
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.7 |
degree of competition faced by the Peer Group companies was viewed as significantly less than
faced by the Company, while the growth potential in the markets served by the Peer Group companies
was for the most part viewed to be similar as provided by the Companys primary market area.
Summary demographic and deposit market share data for the Company and the Peer Group companies is
provided in Exhibit III-4. As shown in Table 4.1, March 2010 unemployment rates for the markets
served by the Peer Group companies were, on average, fairly consistent with unemployment rates for
the Companys primary market area in Richmond County. On balance, we concluded that no adjustment
was appropriate for the Companys market area.
Table 4.1
Market Area Unemployment Rates
Northfield and the Peer Group Companies(1)
Market Area Unemployment Rates
Northfield and the Peer Group Companies(1)
March 2010 | |||||
County | Unemployment | ||||
Northfield NJ |
Richmond | 9.0 | % | ||
Peer Group Average |
10.0 | % | |||
Brookline Bancorp MA |
Norfolk | 8.0 | |||
Danvers Bancorp MA |
Essex | 9.9 | |||
ESB Financial Corp. PA |
Lawrence | 11.0 | |||
ESSA Bancorp PA |
Monroe | 10.2 | |||
Flushing
Financial Corp NY |
Nassau | 6.9 | |||
NewAlliance
Bancshares, Inc. CT |
New Haven | 10.0 | |||
OceanFirst Financial Corp. NJ |
Ocean | 11.4 | |||
Provident NY Bancorp, Inc. NY |
Rockland | 6.9 | |||
United Financial Bancorp MA |
Hampden | 11.4 | |||
Westfield Financial MA |
Hampden | 11.4 |
(1) | Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.8 |
5. Dividends
Northfield has indicated its intention to pay a cash dividend that will preserve the current
$0.20 per share annual cash dividend paid to its public stockholders, with such amount adjusted by
the final exchange ratio determined at the end of the offerings. This proposed dividend policy
will provide a yield of between 1.7% and 1.1% based on the $10.00 per share initial offering price
depending upon the final exchange ratio. However, future declarations of dividends by the Board of
Directors will depend upon a number of factors, including investment opportunities, growth
objectives, financial condition, profitability, tax considerations, minimum capital requirements,
regulatory limitations, stock market characteristics and general economic conditions.
All ten of the Peer Group companies pay regular cash dividends, with implied dividend yields
ranging from 0.49% to 3.65%. The average dividend yield on the stocks of the Peer Group
institutions was 2.42% as of May 14, 2010, representing an average payout ratio of 49.02% of core
earnings. As of May 14, 2010, approximately 63% of all fully-converted publicly-traded thrifts had
adopted cash dividend policies (see Exhibit IV-1), exhibiting an average yield of 1.94%. The
dividend paying thrifts generally maintain higher than average profitability ratios, facilitating
their ability to pay cash dividends. The Companys indicated dividend policy provides for a
slightly lower yield compared to the Peer Groups average dividend yield, while the Companys
implied payout ratio of 70.6% of pro forma earnings at the midpoint value is above the Peer Groups
payout ratio. At the same time, the Companys tangible equity-assets ratio, which will be at
levels exceeding the Peer Groups ratio across the conversion offering range, will support
Northfields dividend paying capacity from a capital perspective. Accordingly, on balance, we
concluded that no adjustment was warranted for purposes of the Companys dividend policy.
6. Liquidity of the Shares
The Peer Group is by definition composed of companies that are traded in the public markets.
Nine of the Peer Group members trade on the NASDAQ Global Select Market and one trades on the NYSE.
Typically, the number of shares outstanding and market capitalization provides an indication of
how much liquidity there will be in a particular stock. The market capitalization of the Peer
Group companies ranged from $171 million to $1.3 billion as of May 14, 2010, with average and
median market values of $423 million and $306 million, respectively. The Companys second-step
stock offering is expected to provide for a pro forma market value
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.9 |
that will be in the upper end of the range of market values outstanding indicated for Peer
Group companies. Like the large majority of the Peer Group companies, the Companys stock will
continue to be quoted on the NASDAQ Global Market following the stock offering. Overall, we
anticipate that the Companys stock will have a comparable trading market as the Peer Group
companies on average and, therefore, concluded no adjustment was necessary for this factor.
7. Marketing of the Issue
We believe that four separate markets exist for thrift stocks, including those coming to
market such as Northfields: (A) the after-market for public companies, in which trading activity
is regular and investment decisions are made based upon financial condition, earnings, capital,
ROE, dividends and future prospects; (B) the new issue market in which converting thrifts are
evaluated on the basis of the same factors, but on a pro forma basis without the benefit of prior
operations as a fully-converted publicly-held company and stock trading history; (C) the
acquisition market for thrift franchises in New York and New Jersey; and (D) the market for the
public stock of Northfield. All of these markets were considered in the valuation of the Companys
to-be-issued stock.
A. | The Public Market |
The value of publicly-traded thrift stocks is easily measurable, and is tracked by most
investment houses and related organizations. Exhibit IV-1 provides pricing and financial data on
all publicly-traded thrifts. In general, thrift stock values react to market stimuli such as
interest rates, inflation, perceived industry health, projected rates of economic growth,
regulatory issues and stock market conditions in general. Exhibit IV-2 displays historical stock
market trends for various indices and includes historical stock price index values for thrifts and
commercial banks. Exhibit IV-3 displays historical stock price indices for thrifts only.
In terms of assessing general stock market conditions, the performance of the overall stock
market has been mixed in recent quarters. Stocks started the fourth quarter of 2009 with a
sell-off, as investors reacted negatively to economic data showing a slowdown in manufacturing
activity from August to September and more job losses than expected for September. Energy and
material stocks led a stock market rally heading into mid-October, as stock markets rallied around
the world. Good earnings reports from J.P. Morgan Chase and Intel pushed the Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA) above a 10000 close in mid-October. Mixed economic data and concerns of the
sustainability of the recovery following the removal of
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.10 |
the federal stimulus programs provided for volatile trading at the close of October. Stocks
moved higher in early-November, with the DJIA topping 10000 again on renewed optimism about the
economy aided by a report that manufacturing activity rose around the world in October.
Expectations that interest rates and inflation would remain low, following a weaker than expected
employment report for October, sustained the rally heading into mid-November. The DJIA hit new
highs for the year in mid-November, as investors focused on upbeat earnings from major retailers,
signs of economic growth in Asia and the Federal Reserves commitment to low interest rates.
Stocks traded unevenly through the second half of November, reflecting investor uncertainty over
the strength of the economic recovery and Dubai debt worries. Easing fears about the Dubai debt
crisis, along with a favorable employment report for November, served to bolster stocks at the end
of November and into early-December. Mixed economic data, including a better-than-expected
increase in November retail sales and November wholesale inflation rising more than expected,
sustained a narrow trading range for the broader stock market heading into mid-December. Worries
about the state of European economies and the dollars surge upended stocks in mid-December.
Helped by some positive economic data and acquisition deals in mining and health care, the DJIA
posted gains for six consecutive sessions in late-December. Overall, the DJIA closed up 18.8% for
2009, which was 26.4% below its all time high.
Stocks started 2010 in positive territory on mounting evidence of a global manufacturing
rebound, while mixed earnings reports provided for an up and down market in mid-January. The DJIA
moved into negative territory for the year heading in into late-January, with financial stocks
leading the market lower as the White House proposed new limits on the size and activities of big
banks. Technology stocks led the broader market lower at the close of January, as disappointing
economic reports dampened growth prospects for 2010. Concerns about the global economy and
European default worries pressured stocks lower in early-February, as the DJIA closed below 10000
for the first time in three months. Upbeat corporate earnings and some favorable economic news out
of Europe and China help stocks to rebound in mid-February. The positive trend in the broader
stock market continued into the second half of February, as investors seized on mild inflation data
and more signs that the U.S. economy was recovering. Weak economic data pulled stocks lower at the
end of February, although the 2.6% increase in the DJIA for the month of February was its strongest
showing since November.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.11 |
The DJIA moved back into positive territory for 2010 in early-March, as the broader market
rallied on a better-than-expected employment report for February. Stocks trended higher through
mid-March, with the DJIA closing up for eight consecutive trading sessions. Factors contributing
to the eight day winning streak in the DJIA included bullish comments by Citigroup, expectations of
continued low borrowing costs following the Federal Reserves mid-March meeting that concluded with
keeping its target rate near zero and a brightening manufacturing outlook. Following a one day
pull back, the positive trend in the broader market continued heading into late-March. Gains in
the health-care sector following the passage of health-care legislation, better-than-expected
existing home sales in February, first time jobless claims falling more than expected and solid
earnings posted by Best Buy all contributed to the positive trend in stocks. The DJIA moved to a
19-month high approaching the end of the first quarter, as oil stocks led the market higher in
response to new evidence of global economic strength. Overall, the DJIA completed its best first
quarter since 1999, with a 4.1% increase for the quarter.
More signs of the economy gaining strength sustained the positive trend in the broader stock
market at the start of the second quarter of 2010. The DJIA closed above 11000 heading into
mid-April, based on growing optimism about corporate earnings and a recovering economy. Fraud
charges against Goldman Sachs halted a six day rally in the market in mid-April, as financial
stocks led a one day sell-off in the broader market. The broader stock market generally sustained
a positive trend during the second half of April, with encouraging first quarter earnings reports
and favorable economic data supporting the gains. Financial stocks lead the broader stock market
lower at the end of April on news of a criminal investigation of Goldman Sachs. The sell-off in
the stock market sharpened during the first week of May, largely on the basis of heightened
concerns about possible ripple effects from Greeces credit crisis. Stocks surged after European
Union leaders agreed to a massive bailout to prevent Greeces financial troubles from spreading
throughout the region, but then reversed course heading into the second half of May on continued
worries about the fallout from Europes credit crisis and an unexpected increase in U.S. jobless
claims. On May 14, 2010, the DJIA closed at 10620.16, an increase of 27.5% from one year ago and
an increase of 1.8% year-to-date, and the NASDAQ closed at 2346.85, an increase of 38.9% from one
year ago and an increase of 3.4% year-to-date. The Standard & Poors 500 Index closed at 1135.68
on May 14, 2010, an increase of 27.2% from one year ago and an increase of 1.8% year-to-date.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.12 |
The market for thrift stocks has been somewhat uneven in recent quarters, but in general has
underperformed the broader stock market. Some disappointing economic data pushed thrift stocks
along with the broader market lower at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2009. Thrift stocks
rebounded modestly through mid-October, aided by a rally in the broader stock market and a strong
earnings report from J.P. Morgan Chase. Concerns of more loan losses and a disappointing report on
September new home sales provided for a modest retreat in thrift prices in late-October. After
bouncing higher on a better-than-expected report for third quarter GDP growth, financial stocks led
the broader market lower at the end of October in the face of a negative report on consumer
spending. In contrast to the broader market, thrift stocks edged lower following the Federal
Reserves early-November statement that it would leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Thrift
stocks rebounded along with the broader market going into mid-November, following some positive
reports on the economy and comments from the Federal Reserve that interest rates would remain low
amid concerns that unemployment and troubles in commercial real estate would weigh on the economic
recovery. Fresh economic data that underscored expectations for a slow economic recovery and Dubai
debt worries pushed thrift stocks lower during the second half of November. Financial stocks led a
broader market rebound at the close of November and into early-December, which was supported by a
favorable report for home sales in October and expectations that the Dubai debt crisis would have a
limited impact on U.S. banks. The favorable employment report for November added to gains in the
thrift sector in early-December. Financial stocks edged higher in mid-December on news that
Citigroup was repaying TARP funds, which was followed by a pullback following a report that
wholesale inflation rose more than expected in November and mid-December unemployment claims were
higher than expected. More attractive valuations supported a snap-back rally in thrift stocks
heading into late-December, which was followed by a narrow trading range for the thrift sector
through year end. Overall, the SNL Index for all publicly-traded thrifts was down 10.2% in 2009,
which reflects significant declines in the trading prices of several large publicly-traded thrifts
during 2009 pursuant to reporting significant losses due to credit quality related deterioration.
Thrift stocks traded in a narrow range during the first few weeks of 2010, as investors
awaited fourth quarter earnings reports that would provide further insight on credit quality
trends. An unexpected jump in jobless claims and proposed restrictions by the White House on large
banks depressed financial stocks in general heading into late-January. Amid mixed earnings
reports, thrift stocks traded in a narrow range for the balance of January.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.13 |
Financial stocks led the broader market lower in early-February and then rebounded along with
the broader market in mid-February on some positive economic data including signs that home prices
were rising in some large metropolitan areas. Mild inflation readings for wholesale and consumer
prices in January sustained the upward trend in thrift stocks heading into the second half of
February. Comments by the Federal Reserve Chairman that short-term interest rates were likely to
remain low for at least several months helped thrift stocks to ease higher in late-February.
The thrift sector moved higher along with the broader stock market in-early March 2010, aided
by the better-than-expected employment report for February. Financial stocks lead the market
higher heading into mid-March on optimism that Citigroup would be able to repay the U.S. Government
after a successful offering of trust preferred securities. The Federal Reserves recommitment to
leaving its target rate unchanged for an extended period sustained the positive trend in thrift
stocks through mid-March. Thrift stocks bounced higher along with the broader stock market heading
into late-March, which was followed by a slight pullback as debt worries sent the yields on
Treasury notes higher.
An improving outlook for financial stocks in general, along with positive reports for housing,
employment and retail sales, boosted thrift stocks at the start of the second quarter of 2010. A
nominal increase in March consumer prices and a strong first quarter earnings report from JP Morgan
Chase & Co. supported a broad rally in bank and thrift stocks heading into mid-April, which was
followed by a pullback on news that the SEC charged Goldman Sachs with fraud. Thrift stocks
generally underperformed the broader stock market during the second half of April, as financial
stocks in general were hurt by uncertainty about the progress of financial reform legislation,
Greeces debt crisis and news of a criminal investigation of Goldman Sachs. Thrift stocks
retreated along the broader stock market in the first week of May, based on fears that the growing
debt crisis in Europe could hurt the economic recovery. Likewise, thrift stocks surged higher
along with the broader stock market after European Union officials announced a massive bailout plan
to avert a public-debt crisis and then fell heading into the second half of May on lingering
concerns about the euro. News of rising mortgage delinquencies in the first quarter of 2010, an
expected slowdown in new home construction and uncertainty over financial reform legislation
further contributed to lower trading prices for thrift stocks. On May 14, 2010, the SNL Index for
all publicly-traded thrifts closed at 621.80, an increase of 12.1% from one year ago and an
increase of 5.9% year-to-date.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.14 |
B. | The New Issue Market |
In addition to thrift stock market conditions in general, the new issue market for converting
thrifts is also an important consideration in determining the Companys pro forma market value.
The new issue market is separate and distinct from the market for seasoned thrift stocks in that
the pricing ratios for converting issues are computed on a pro forma basis, specifically: (1) the
numerator and denominator are both impacted by the conversion offering amount, unlike existing
stock issues in which price change affects only the numerator; and (2) the pro forma pricing ratio
incorporates assumptions regarding source and use of proceeds, effective tax rates, stock plan
purchases, etc. which impact pro forma financials, whereas pricing for existing issues are based on
reported financials. The distinction between pricing of converting and existing issues is perhaps
no clearer than in the case of the price/book (P/B) ratio in that the P/B ratio of a converting
thrift will typically result in a discount to book value whereas in the current market for existing
thrifts the P/B ratio may reflect a premium to book value. Therefore, it is appropriate to also
consider the market for new issues, both at the time of the conversion and in the aftermarket.
The marketing for converting thrift issues turned more positive in late 2009 and early 2010,
as indicated by an increase in conversion activity and the relative success of those offerings.
For the most part, the recent conversion offerings experienced healthy subscription takedowns and
have traded above their IPO prices in initial trading activity. Consistent with the broader thrift
market, conversion pricing reflects continued investor uncertainty over quality credit trends and
the prospects that a strengthening economy will translate into improved real estate market
conditions for residential and commercial properties. As shown in Table 4.2, one standard
conversion and one second-step conversion were completed during the past three months. The
second-step conversion offering is considered to be more relevant for our analysis. In general,
second-step conversions tend to be priced (and trade in the aftermarket) at higher P/B ratios than
standard conversions. We believe investors take into consideration the generally more leveraged
pro forma balance sheets of second-step companies, their track records as public companies prior to
conversion, and their generally higher pro forma ROE measures relative to standard conversions in
pricing their common stocks. Eagle Bancorps second-step offering was completed between the
midpoint and maximum of the offering range, with a 60% offering raising gross proceeds of $24.6
million. Eagle Bancorps pro forma price/tangible book ratio at the closing value equaled 81.4%
and pro forma core price/earnings
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.15 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.16 |
ratio at the closing value equaled 12.7 times. Eagle Bancorps common stock closed up 5.0% after
one week of trading remained at that level through May 14, 2010. Shown in Table 4.3 are the
current pricing ratios for Eagle Bancorp, which is the only fully-converted offering during the
past three months that is traded on NASDAQ.
C. | The Acquisition Market |
Also considered in the valuation was the potential impact on Northfields stock price of
recently completed and pending acquisitions of thrift institutions operating in New York and New
Jersey. As shown in Exhibit IV-4, there were 12 acquisitions of thrifts headquartered in New York
and New Jersey completed from the beginning of 2006 through May 14, 2010, and there is currently
one acquisition pending of a New Jersey institution. The recent acquisition activity involving
regional savings institutions may imply a certain degree of acquisition speculation for the
Companys stock. To the extent that acquisition speculation may impact the Companys offering, we
have largely taken this into account in selecting companies for the Peer Group which operate in
markets that have experienced a comparable level of acquisition activity as the Companys market
and, thus, are subject to the same type of acquisition speculation that may influence Northfields
stock. However, since converting thrifts are subject to a three-year regulatory moratorium from
being acquired, acquisition speculation in Northfields stock would tend to be less compared to the
stocks of the Peer Group companies.
D. | Trading in Northfields Stock |
Since Northfields minority stock currently trades under the symbol NFBK on the NASDAQ, RP
Financial also considered the recent trading activity in the valuation analysis. Northfield had a
total of 43,722,522 shares issued and outstanding at March 31, 2010, of which 19,080,838 shares
were held by public shareholders and traded as public securities. The Companys stock has had a 52
week trading range of $10.41 to $15.30 per share and its closing price on May 14, 2010 was $14.73
per share. There are significant differences between the Companys minority stock (currently being
traded) and the conversion stock that will be issued by the Company. Such differences include
different liquidity characteristics, a different return on equity for the conversion stock, the
stock is currently traded based on speculation of a range of exchange ratios and dividend payments
will be made on all shares outstanding; thereby, requiring a higher payout ratio to sustain the
current level of dividends paid to non-MHC
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.17 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.18 |
shareholders. Since the pro forma impact has not been publicly disseminated to date, it is
appropriate to discount the current trading level. As the pro forma impact is made known publicly,
the trading level will become more informative.
* * * * * * * * * * *
In determining our valuation adjustment for marketing of the issue, we considered trends in
both the overall thrift market, the new issue market including the new issue market for second-step
conversions, the acquisition market and recent trading activity in the Companys minority stock.
Taking these factors and trends into account, RP Financial concluded that a slight downward
adjustment was appropriate in the valuation analysis for purposes of marketing of the issue.
8. Management
The Companys management team appears to have experience and expertise in all of the key areas
of the Companys operations. Exhibit IV-5 provides summary resumes of the Companys Board of
Directors and senior management. The financial characteristics of the Company suggest that the
Board and senior management have been effective in implementing an operating strategy that can be
well managed by the Companys present organizational structure. The Company currently does not
have any senior management positions that are vacant. Similarly, the returns, equity positions and
other operating measures of the Peer Group companies are indicative of well-managed financial
institutions, which have Boards and management teams that have been effective in implementing
competitive operating strategies. Therefore, on balance, we concluded no valuation adjustment
relative to the Peer Group was appropriate for this factor.
9. Effect of Government Regulation and Regulatory Reform
As a fully-converted regulated institution, Northfield will operate in substantially the same
regulatory environment as the Peer Group members all of whom are adequately capitalized
institutions and are operating with no apparent restrictions. Exhibit IV-6 reflects Northfield
Banks pro forma regulatory capital ratios. On balance, no adjustment has been applied for the
effect of government regulation and regulatory reform.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.19 |
Summary of Adjustments
Overall, based on the factors discussed above, we concluded that the Companys pro forma
market value should reflect the following valuation adjustments relative to the Peer Group:
Key Valuation Parameters: | Valuation Adjustment | |
Financial Condition
|
No Adjustment | |
Profitability, Growth and Viability of Earnings
|
Slight Upward | |
Asset Growth
|
Moderate Upward | |
Primary Market Area
|
No Adjustment | |
Dividends
|
No Adjustment | |
Liquidity of the Shares
|
No Adjustment | |
Marketing of the Issue
|
Slight Downward | |
Management
|
No Adjustment | |
Effect of Govt. Regulations and Regulatory Reform
|
No Adjustment |
Valuation Approaches
In applying the accepted valuation methodology promulgated by the OTS and adopted by the FDIC,
i.e., the pro forma market value approach, we considered the three key pricing ratios in valuing
the Companys to-be-issued stock price/earnings (P/E), price/book (P/B), and price/assets
(P/A) approaches all performed on a pro forma basis including the effects of the stock
proceeds. In computing the pro forma impact of the conversion and the related pricing ratios, we
have incorporated the valuation parameters disclosed in the Companys prospectus for reinvestment
rate, effective tax rate, stock benefit plan assumptions and expenses (summarized in Exhibits IV-7
and IV-8). In our estimate of value, we assessed the relationship of the pro forma pricing ratios
relative to the Peer Group and recent conversion offerings.
RP Financials valuation placed an emphasis on the following:
§ | P/E Approach. The P/E approach is generally the best indicator of long-term value for a stock and we have given it the significant weight among the valuation approaches. Given certain similarities between the Companys and the Peer Groups earnings composition and overall financial condition, the P/E approach was carefully considered in this valuation. At the same time, recognizing that (1) the earnings multiples will be evaluated on a pro forma basis for the Company; and (2) the Peer Group on average has had the opportunity to realize the benefit of reinvesting and leveraging the offering proceeds, we also gave weight to the other valuation approaches. |
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.20 |
§ | P/B Approach. P/B ratios have generally served as a useful benchmark in the valuation of thrift stocks, particularly in the context of an initial public offering, as the earnings approach involves assumptions regarding the use of proceeds. RP Financial considered the P/B approach to be a valuable indicator of pro forma value, taking into account the pricing ratios under the P/E and P/A approaches. We have also modified the P/B approach to exclude the impact of intangible assets (i.e., price/tangible book value or P/TB), in that the investment community frequently makes this adjustment in its evaluation of this pricing approach. | ||
§ | P/A Approach. P/A ratios are generally a less reliable indicator of market value, as investors typically assign less weight to assets and attribute greater weight to book value and earnings. Furthermore, this approach as set forth in the regulatory valuation guidelines does not take into account the amount of stock purchases funded by deposit withdrawals, thus understating the pro forma P/A ratio. At the same time, the P/A ratio is an indicator of franchise value, and, in the case of highly capitalized institutions, high P/A ratios may limit the investment communitys willingness to pay market multiples for earnings or book value when ROE is expected to be low. | ||
§ | Trading of NFBK stock. Converting institutions generally do not have stock outstanding. Northfield, however, has public shares outstanding due to the mutual holding company form of ownership. Since Northfield is currently traded on the NASDAQ, it is an indicator of investor interest in the Companys conversion stock and therefore received some weight in our valuation. Based on the May 14, 2010, stock price of $14.73 per share and the 43,722,587 shares of Northfield stock outstanding, the Companys implied market value of $644.0 million was considered in the valuation process. However, since the conversion stock will have different characteristics than the minority shares, and since pro forma information has not been publicly disseminated to date, the current trading price of Northfields stock was somewhat discounted herein but will become more important towards the closing of the offering. |
The Company has adopted Statement of Position (SOP) 93-6, which causes earnings per share
computations to be based on shares issued and outstanding excluding unreleased ESOP shares. For
purposes of preparing the pro forma pricing analyses, we have reflected all shares issued in the
offering, including all ESOP shares, to capture the full dilutive impact, particularly since the
ESOP shares are economically dilutive, receive dividends and can be voted. However, we did
consider the impact of SOP 93-6 in the valuation.
In preparing the pro forma pricing analysis we have taken into account the pro forma impact of
the MHC net assets that will be consolidated with the Company and thus will increase equity and
earnings. At March 31, 2010, the MHC had unconsolidated net assets of $362 thousand consisting
primarily of cash held in the Bank and other assets, net of other liabilities.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.21 |
These entries have been added to the Companys March 31, 2010 reported financial information
to reflect the consolidation of the MHC into the Companys operations.
Based on the application of the three valuation approaches, taking into consideration the
valuation adjustments discussed above, RP Financial concluded that as of May 14, 2010, the
aggregate pro forma market value of Northfields conversion stock equaled $621,016,110 at the
midpoint, equal to 62,101,611 shares at $10.00 per share. The $10.00 per share price was
determined by the Northfield Board. The midpoint and resulting valuation range is based on the
sale of a 56.36% ownership interest to the public, which provides for a $350,000,000 public
offering at the midpoint value.
1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E). The application of the P/E valuation method requires
calculating the Companys pro forma market value by applying a valuation P/E multiple
(fully-converted basis) to the pro forma earnings base. In applying this technique, we considered
both reported earnings and a recurring earnings base, that is, earnings adjusted to exclude any
one-time non-operating items, plus the estimated after-tax earnings benefit of the reinvestment of
the net proceeds. The Companys reported earnings equaled $12.7 million for the twelve months
ended March 31, 2010. In deriving Northfields core earnings, the adjustments made to reported
earnings were to eliminate the net gains on securities transactions and the OTTI charges on a tax
effected basis. As shown below, assuming an effective marginal tax rate of 40.0% for the earnings
adjustments, the Companys core earnings were estimated to equal $11.8 million for the twelve
months ended March 31, 2010. (Note: see Exhibit IV-9 for the adjustments applied to the Peer
Groups earnings in the calculation of core earnings).
Amount | ||||
($000) | ||||
Net income |
$ | 12,720 | ||
Deduct: securities transactions net of OTTI charges |
(1,484 | ) | ||
Tax effect at 40% |
594 | |||
Core earnings estimate |
$ | 11,830 | ||
Based on the Companys reported and estimated core earnings, and incorporating the impact of
the pro forma assumptions discussed previously, the Companys pro forma reported and core P/E
multiples at the $621.0 million midpoint value equaled 47.72x and 51.23x, respectively, indicating
premiums of 118.1% and 110.0% relative to the Peer Groups average reported and core earnings
multiples of 21.88x and 24.40x, respectively (see Table 4.4). In
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.22 |
comparison to the Peer Groups median reported and core earnings multiples of 18.76x and
26.88x, respectively, the Companys pro forma reported and core P/E multiples at the midpoint value
indicated premiums of 154.4% and 90.6%, respectively. The Companys pro forma P/E ratios based on
reported earnings at the minimum and the super maximum equaled 40.71x and 62.62x, respectively, and
based on core earnings at the minimum and the super maximum equaled 43.72x and 67.18x,
respectively.
2. Price-to-Book (P/B). The application of the P/B valuation method requires
calculating the Companys pro forma market value by applying a valuation P/B ratio, as derived from
the Peer Groups P/B ratio, to the Companys pro forma book value. Based on the $621.0 million
midpoint valuation, the Companys pro forma P/B and P/TB ratios equaled 87.87% and 89.93%,
respectively. In comparison to the average P/B and P/TB ratios for the Peer Group of 109.94% and
129.19%, the Companys ratios reflected discounts of 20.1% on a P/B basis and 30.4% on a P/TB
basis. In comparison to the Peer Groups median P/B and P/TB ratios of 104.0% and 134.53%,
respectively, the Companys pro forma P/B and P/TB ratios at the midpoint value reflected discounts
of 15.5% and 33.2%, respectively. At the top of the super range, the Companys P/B and P/TB ratios
equaled 101.73% and 103.84%, respectively. In comparison to the Peer Groups average P/B and P/TB
ratios, the Companys P/B and P/TB ratios at the top of the super range reflected discounts of 7.5%
and 19.6%, respectively. RP Financial considered the discounts under the P/B approach to be
reasonable given the Companys pro forma P/E multiples were at a premium to the Peer Groups P/E
multiples.
3. Price-to-Assets (P/A). The P/A valuation methodology determines market value by
applying a valuation P/A ratio to the Companys pro forma asset base, conservatively assuming no
deposit withdrawals are made to fund stock purchases. In all likelihood there will be deposit
withdrawals, which results in understating the pro forma P/A ratio which is computed herein. At
the $621.0 million midpoint of the valuation range, the Companys value equaled 25.79% of pro forma
assets. Comparatively, the Peer Group companies exhibited an average P/A ratio of 15.18%, which
implies a premium of 69.9% has been applied to the Companys pro forma P/A ratio. In comparison to
the Peer Groups median P/A ratio of 14.88%, the Companys pro forma P/A ratio at the midpoint
value reflects a premium of 73.3%.
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.23 |
Comparison to Recent Offerings
As indicated at the beginning of this chapter, RP Financials analysis of recent conversion
offering pricing characteristics at closing and in the aftermarket has been limited to a
technical analysis and, thus, the pricing characteristics of recent conversion offerings can not
be a primary determinate of value. Particular focus was placed on the P/TB approach in this
analysis, since the P/E multiples do not reflect the actual impact of reinvestment and the source
of the stock proceeds (i.e., external funds vs. deposit withdrawals). As discussed previously,
just one second-step conversion has been completed within the past three months and closed at a pro
forma price/tangible book ratio of 81.4% (see Table 4.2) and appreciated 5.0% during the first week
of trading. In comparison, the Companys pro forma P/TB ratio at the appraised midpoint value
reflects a premium of 10.5%. The current P/TB ratio of the second-step conversion transaction,
based on closing stock prices as of May 14, 2010, equaled 83.97%. In comparison, the Companys
P/TB ratio at the midpoint value reflects an implied premium of 7.1% and at the top of the
superrange reflects an implied premium of 23.7%.
Valuation Conclusion
Based on the foregoing, it is our opinion that, as of May 14, 2010, the estimated aggregate
pro forma valuation of the shares of the Company to be issued and outstanding at the end of the
conversion offering including (1) newly-issued shares representing the MHCs current ownership
interest in the Company and (2) exchange shares issued to existing public shareholders of the
Company was $621,016,110 at the midpoint, equal to 62,101,611 shares at a per share value of
$10.00. The resulting range of value and pro forma shares, all based on $10.00 per share, are as
follows:
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.24 |
[table omitted]
RP® Financial, LC. | VALUATION ANALYSIS | |
IV.25 |
Exchange Shares | ||||||||||||||||
Offering | Issued to Public | Exchange | ||||||||||||||
Total Shares | Shares | Shareholders | Ratio | |||||||||||||
Shares | ||||||||||||||||
Maximum, as Adjusted |
82,129,380 | 46,287,500 | 35,841,880 | 1.8784 | ||||||||||||
Maximum |
71,416,852 | 40,250,000 | 31,166,852 | 1.6334 | ||||||||||||
Midpoint |
62,101,611 | 35,000,000 | 27,101,611 | 1.4204 | ||||||||||||
Minimum |
52,786,369 | 29,750,000 | 23,036,369 | 1.2073 | ||||||||||||
Distribution of Shares | ||||||||||||||||
Maximum, as Adjusted |
100.00 | % | 56.36 | % | 43.64 | % | ||||||||||
Maximum |
100.00 | % | 56.36 | % | 43.64 | % | ||||||||||
Midpoint |
100.00 | % | 56.36 | % | 43.64 | % | ||||||||||
Minimum |
100.00 | % | 56.36 | % | 43.64 | % | ||||||||||
Aggregate Market Value at $10 per share | ||||||||||||||||
Maximum, as Adjusted |
$ | 821,293,800 | $ | 462,875,000 | $ | 358,418,800 | ||||||||||
Maximum |
$ | 714,168,520 | $ | 402,500,000 | $ | 311,668,520 | ||||||||||
Midpoint |
$ | 621,016,110 | $ | 350,000,000 | $ | 271,016,110 | ||||||||||
Minimum |
$ | 527,863,690 | $ | 297,500,000 | $ | 230,363,690 |
The pro forma valuation calculations relative to the Peer Group are shown in Table 4.4
and are detailed in Exhibit IV-7 and Exhibit IV-8.
Establishment of the Exchange Ratio
OTS regulations provide that in a conversion of a mutual holding company, the minority
stockholders are entitled to exchange the public shares for newly issued shares in the fully
converted company. The Board of Directors of Northfield has independently determined the exchange
ratio, which has been designed to preserve the current aggregate percentage ownership in the
Company held by the public shareholders. The exchange ratio to be received by the existing
minority shareholders of the Company will be determined at the end of the offering, based on the
total number of shares sold in the subscription and syndicated offerings and the final appraisal.
Based on the valuation conclusion herein, the resulting offering value and the $10.00 per share
offering price, the indicated exchange ratio at the midpoint is 1.4204 shares of the Company for
every one public share held by public shareholders. Furthermore, based on the offering range of
value, the indicated exchange ratio is 1.2073 at the minimum, 1.6334 at the maximum and 1.8784 at
the superrange. RP Financial expresses no opinion on the proposed exchange of newly issued Company
shares for the shares held by the public stockholders or on the proposed exchange ratio.