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Exhibit 99.1
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Final Transcript
Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Mark Sutherland
Lubrizol Director, IR
Lubrizol Director, IR
Charlie Cooley
Lubrizol SVP & CFO
Lubrizol SVP & CFO
James Hambrick
Lubrizol Chairman, President & CEO
Lubrizol Chairman, President & CEO
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS
David Begleiter
Deutsche Bank Analyst
Deutsche Bank Analyst
P.J. Juvekar
Citi Analyst
Citi Analyst
Amanda Sigouin
Jefferies & Co. Analyst
Jefferies & Co. Analyst
Rosemarie Morbelli
Ingalls & Snyder Analyst
Ingalls & Snyder Analyst
Jeff Zekauskas
JPMorgan Analyst
JPMorgan Analyst
Mike Sison
KeyBanc Analyst
KeyBanc Analyst
Saul Ludwig
Northcoast Research Analyst
Northcoast Research Analyst
Dmitry Silversteyn
Longbow Research Analyst
Longbow Research Analyst
PRESENTATION
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, wed like to thank you for standing by and welcome to the first-quarter
earnings call teleconference. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we
will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator
Instructions). As a reminder, todays call will be recorded.
I would now like to turn the call over to your facilitator and host, Director of Investor
Relations, Mr. Mark Sutherland.
Mark Sutherland - Lubrizol - Director, IR
Thank you, Steve, and thank you all on the line for joining us today, April 29, 2010 for a
discussion of our first-quarter 2010 results which were released this morning. This call is being
webcast by CCBN.com and will be available for replay beginning about 1 p.m. Eastern Time today, and
continuing for the next 30 days. Our Internet site, www.lubrizol.com, has several supporting
documents for this call.
Listeners can access a presentation entitled first-quarter 2010 earnings teleconference by clicking
on the financial report tab on the investors page and scrolling to the quarterly earnings-webcast
site. At this site you can also access the replay, a written transcript of this call, and
reconciliations to GAAP financials.
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Final Transcript
Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
Our prepared remarks today include references to non-GAAP financials in our discussions of
earning, EBIT and outlook. We want to remind everyone that this webcast contains time sensitive
information that is accurate only as of today. Any redistribution, retransmission or reproduction
of this call without written Company consent is prohibited.
Participating in the call with me today are James L. Hambrick, Chairman, President and Chief
Executive Officer; Charlie Cooley, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Greg Taylor,
Vice President for Planning, Development and Communications; and Scott Emerick, our Controller.
Charlie will start todays call with a review of our first-quarter results and provide our new
outlook and assumptions for the current year. James will then provide his comments, and we will
then open the line for questions and discussion.
I need to remind you that some of the information to be furnished in todays session will
constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. Please refer to the risk factors and cautionary statements sections in our
periodic SEC filings for additional information that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those in the forward-looking statements and this teleconference.
I will now turn the conference over to Charlie.
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. The year is off to a very strong start, and here
are the highlights. Revenues in the first quarter increased 30% on 28% higher volume, as all
product lines experienced double-digit volume growth. Both Additives and Advanced Materials
maintained their strong unit material margins, enabling the corporation to deliver a consolidated
gross margin of 34%.
Lubrizol Additives successfully implemented its pricing actions announced in the fourth quarter of
last year and the first quarter of this year. Lubrizol Advanced Materials established a new
quarterly record for operating income. We repurchased 800,000 shares at an average price of
approximately $75 per share. And this past Tuesday, our Board of Directors approved a 16% increase
in our regular dividend.
In my remarks this morning, I will be referring regularly to the PowerPoint presentation that is
posted on our websites quarterly earnings webcast page. I am now on slide 4 where you can see the
consolidated earnings for the first quarter of 2010 compared with the year-ago. As a reminder, all
references to earnings-per-share will be on a diluted basis.
This morning we announced consolidated earnings of $2.32 per share for the first quarter of 2010,
including restructuring charges of $0.01 per share. These charges primarily were related to
restructuring initiatives in the Advanced Materials segment.
For comparison, in the first quarter of 2009, we reported consolidated earnings of $0.95 per share
which included $0.11 per share of restructuring charges, primarily related to the companywide cost
reduction actions implemented in early 2009. When we exclude the special charges in both years,
adjusted earnings of $2.33 per share for the quarter were 120% higher than the $1.06 earned in the
first quarter of 2009.
The primary drivers for the increase in adjusted earnings were higher shipment volumes and unit
material margins and improved utilization at production facilities, partially offset by increased
performance-based compensation expense and a higher effective tax rate.
Slide 5 of the presentation provides a schedule of our consolidated quarterly results, and I would
like to call out a few of the more significant items. As I already noted, consolidated revenues
increased 30% from the first quarter of 2009. Volume increased 28% compared with the year-ago
period and improved 9% sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2009. Currency was 2% favorable to
revenues in the quarter, while the combination of price and product mix was unchanged.
Gross profit increased 65% over last year and 16% sequentially. With the improved volumes and
increased production this year, unabsorbed manufacturing expense associated with lower than normal
production levels was only $7 million compared with $38 million in the same period last year.
Lubrizol Additives higher plant utilization drove the majority of the year-over-year improvement in
unabsorbed expense.
STAR expenses increased approximately 23% to $176 million. The increase primarily was due to $19
million of higher performance-based compensation expense, $7 million of higher salary and benefits
expense, and unfavorable currency of approximately $3 million. When we exclude these factors, the
STAR expenses essentially were unchanged.
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
Net interest expense decreased 12%, primarily due to the absence of the negative carry and
other costs associated with our first-quarter 2009 financing activities.
Turning to taxes, income was taxed at an effective rate of 33.8% for the quarter. The higher
effective tax rate primarily was the result of a $3.7 million nontax charge related to the change
in tax treatment of the Medicare subsidy under the new healthcare legislation, the expiration of
the US Research tax credit, and finally foreign tax law changes.
Overall, we estimate that currency was $0.06 favorable to results for the quarter according to our
pro forma calculation that compares actual results to pro forma results, translated at the
prior-period exchange rates. Given the dollars recent strengthening, we project that currency will
present a headwind in subsequent quarters. And I will come back to currency impact when I discuss
our updated guidance.
Now Ill turn to segment results, beginning with Lubrizol Additives on slide 6. To summarize the
highlights, Additives volume rebounded 28% from the recession-impacted first quarter of 2009. The
strong volume together with higher unit material margins and much better plant utilization enabled
Additives to deliver another strong quarter.
Sequentially volume increased 11%, and improvements in price mix were sufficient to offset higher
raw material costs. Compared with the first quarter of 2009, revenues increased 30% primarily due
to the higher volume, as well as a favorable impact from currency of 2%. Price mix was neutral for
the quarter.
The segment experienced higher volume in all geographic regions and product lines. Most of the
improved volume was due to market recovery. Increased demand in our OEM and industrial markets
helped drive volume growth in the driveline and industrial additives product line. We attribute the
remainder of the higher volume to inventory restocking and favorable customer order patterns. The
Asia-Pacific region experienced particularly strong volume growth of 47%.
To recap our recent pricing actions, in response to rising raw material costs in the second half of
2009, we announced a price increase late in the third quarter of 2009 that was implemented during
the fourth quarter. As a result of continued increases in raw material costs, we announced a
subsequent price increase in the first quarter of 2010, with a phased implementation during the
first and second quarters.
Segment gross profit rose 72% to approximately $325 million, due to the higher volume and unit
material margins. Segment operating income increased 108%, primarily due to the higher gross
profit. Operating income as a percentage of revenues in the quarter improved significantly to 26%
compared with 16.3% in the year-ago quarter and 22.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009.
I will now turn to the Advanced Materials segment on slide 7. Segment volume was up 26% from the
prior-year quarter, driven by large increases in all regions and product lines. The Advanced
Materials segment maintained unit material margins at the levels it achieved in the fourth quarter
of last year, and as a result delivered record quarterly operating income of $61 million, which was
more than double the prior-year quarter.
Revenues for the quarter were up 29% from last year. In addition to the volume impact on revenues,
the combination of price and product mix improved revenues by 2%, and currency was 1% favorable to
revenues. The recovery in demand that we saw in the second half of 2009 continued in the first
quarter of 2010, as all product lines contributed to the segments 5% sequential volume growth.
By regions, volumes in Asia-Pacific were up 84% with excellent increases across all the businesses,
especially in our TempRite and Estane Engineered Polymers businesses. Segment volume in each of the
other three regions was up between 14% and 39%, as we have seen general increases in customer
demand in all of our product lines.
I will now go into the Advanced Materials product lines in a little more detail. Revenues in the
Noveon consumer specialties product line increased 18% from the first quarter of 2009. Volume was
up 20% over last year due to significant increases in our Carbopol and North American surfactant
businesses. Revenues in the Performance Coatings product line increased 23% from the first quarter
of 2009.
Volume increased 13% as we saw increases in all regions and businesses compared to last year.
Engineered Polymers product line revenues increased 45% from the prior year on 53% higher volume.
Volume in our Estane business increased 66% and experienced significant increases in all regions
and product areas compared to last year, especially in Asia-Pacific where demand in electronics
applications has picked up significantly.
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
TempRite CBVC volume increased 42%, largely due to the strong demand in Asia-Pacific as I noted
earlier. North American construction and housing markets appear to be showing signs of stabilizing
as our volumes were up 2% over last year. Segment gross profit increased 47% to approximately $126
million due to the higher volume.
The higher segment gross profit resulted in record operating income of $61 million, an increase of
138% over the first quarter of 2009, thanks to significant improvements in all product lines. As a
result, Advanced Materials operating margin was a very strong 16.5% in the quarter.
I will now comment on several other financial items noted on slide 8. Corporate expenses increased
approximately $20 million in the first quarter of 2010, primarily due to higher performance-based
compensation expense, which was driven by the increase in our stock price as well as our excellent
financial performance. Despite the large increase in earnings, cash flow from operating activities
of $99 million for the quarter was down from the prior year, due to increased investment in
receivables as our sales were higher.
Capital expenditures for the first three months were $30 million, off the pace we had projected
initially. Some of this lower spending is the consequence of our increased manufacturing activity
and the allocation of project management resources. As a result, we are reducing our 2010
projection for capital expenditures to $250 million from the $280 million.
Share repurchases totaled $60 million in the quarter as we repurchased 800,000 shares at an average
price of approximately $75 per share.
Lubrizols balance sheet remains strong. Our cash balance at March 31, 2010 was $942 million, down
slightly from the $991 million at December 31, 2009.
Now I will turn to our outlook on slide 9. Our new 2010 guidance is $8.32 to $8.72 per share,
including restructuring charges of $0.08 per share, largely associated with our
previously-announced decision to close a Canadian additives facility. Excluding these charges, our
guidance for adjusted earnings is in the range of $8.40 to $8.80 per share, which represents an 11%
to 17% increase in adjusted earnings compared with 2009.
Slide 10 shows our key assumptions for the year, some of which I will highlight. We are increasing
our projection of consolidated volume growth to 9% to 10%, with Additives volume growth of
approximately 9% and Advanced Materials volume growth of approximately 11%.
With ongoing attention to managing unit material margins and manufacturing costs by both segments,
we continue to project a consolidated gross margin of approximately 32%, in line with 2009 results.
We project consolidated STAR to be approximately 13% of revenues.
We are modeling a slightly higher effective tax rate for the year of 32.6%. We project currency to
represent a headwind of approximately $0.20 per share compared with our prior guidance. Our model
now assumes that the euro will average $1.35 for the balance of the year, and this compares with
our prior assumption of $1.45/euro.
We project that working capital changes will involve a modest use of cash of approximately $35
million, mainly the result of higher accounts receivable driven by the higher projected sales. As
noted earlier, we are lowering our projection for capital spending to approximately $250 million.
We expect to make additional share repurchases of at least $40 million and possibly more, as we
continue to evaluate our alternative uses of our excess cash.
And with the recently-announced 16% increase in our quarterly dividend, we now project full-year
2010 dividend payments of approximately $97 million. My final comment is that our updated guidance
reflects the fact that we still have three quarters to go, which always makes projecting the full
year a challenge. Volume could be an upside as indicated by the fact that second-quarter volume in
both segments is shaping up to be very strong. Other factors that will be important to our results
will be currency, as well as our ongoing margin management efforts.
That completes my review of the quarter, and I will now turn it over to James Hambrick.
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
Thank you, Charlie. Good morning, everyone. As we noted in the earnings release issued this
morning, I am very pleased by the performance of both segments. They continue to execute our
strategies extremely well. Of course, Additives performance draws the most attention, but for me
Advanced Materials performance this quarter and its momentum are just very impressive.
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
We believe the fundamentals of our business have improved over the last several years, and as a
result we recently communicated our upgraded three-year financial performance targets, and those
are summarized on slide 11.
For consolidated sales volumes, we are projecting organic growth of about 4% to 5% per year through
2012. That is mostly driven by geographic expansion, new product introductions and general
improvements in markets served. And over the same time frame, we are targeting earnings-per-share
growth of about 7% to 10% per year.
Having returned our gross profit margins to level of the mid-1990s and to levels that are
consistent with high-quality specialty chemical and material businesses, our goal is to maintain
consolidated gross profit margin at about 33% and consolidated EBIT margin at about 20%.
We will achieve this by continuing to effectively manage the key variables of our business, namely
unit material margins, product mix, manufacturing, operating expenses, as well as our STAR
expenses. We believe by continuing to focus on the success of our customers, by working with them
to deliver new and valuable products and services, and by continuing to execute to our overall
business plans, we will achieve our 2012 goal of $10 in earnings per share.
Our basic path to this midterm goal is shown on the next slide, slide 12. Building on last years
results and as already noted, we are off to a very good start here in the beginning of 2010. We
anticipate about $1.65 in EPS growth coming from our base business growth, about $0.40 in EPS
growth from mix improvement, and at least $0.40 in EPS growth from acquisitions.
The acquisition earnings assume revenues of about $250 million to $300 million and EBIT margins of
about 13% to 15%. It could be higher or lower and is entirely dependent upon our M&A success.
I do need to acknowledge the recent media speculation about Lubrizols acquisition activities that
we had difficulty addressing when they first came out. As I am sure you understand, our corporate
policy is just simply not to comment on rumors and speculation. And further, we always purpose to
disclose all material information by public release in a timely manner.
Now having said that, I do think considering all the attention that these rumors generated, it just
seems to me it would be helpful to take this opportunity to again summarize our overall acquisition
strategy and the criteria that we use to make good sound judgments about such projects. So Im
going to try in a fairly concise manner to kind of take you through a broad outline.
So, first of all, we are targeting complementary value-adding acquisitions with the objective of
building our existing positions in consumer specialties, in performance coatings, in engineered
polymers, and industrial additives. We have identified several specific submarkets in these sectors
where we can be very successful in building market-leading positions as solution providers for our
global and regional customers.
We have no practical acquisition opportunities in transportation additives, and we dont seek to
add another segment to our portfolio because we already have ample growth space within our existing
portfolio. Plus, we dont believe in conglomerates. We dont think they add maximum value to
customers or to shareholders. So thats really kind of the basic domain description.
Now, with respect to range, I think its important to note that the unit material margins for
Advanced Materials product lines are on par with our Additives segment. But these businesses do not
have the necessary size and technological scale to deliver similar operating income profitability.
They must grow organically and through acquisition in order to fully build and leverage their
capabilities for our customers.
To describe what success looks like in brought quantitative terms, Ive often said that at $400
million to $500 million in annual revenue, each of these businesses needs to be about $1 billion in
size to achieve critical mass. Acquisitions in each of these areas are important growth enablers.
Our desire is to make several high-quality bolt-on acquisitions in the $100 million to $500 million
range. Our work in pursuit of these acquisitions is an ongoing effort. We are typically working on
several projects that are in different stages. We will evaluate opportunities outside of this size
range, depending upon the candidate.
In the last three years, for example, we have completed four acquisitions, two in the industrial
additives area and two in the engineered polymers area. While all four are performing very well,
they were all below the low end of our desired size range.
We take acquisition candidates through a rigorous evaluation process to assess strategic fit and
financial attractiveness. Frankly, we investigate far more than we consummate simply because of
that rigor. Many get passed over based on quality or fit and our threshold financial benchmarks
take care of most of the rest.
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
We really do need to be confident in DCF returns that exceed our weighted average cost of capital
and yield attractive net present values. And first year EPS accretion is also an important
requirement.
There are size limits to what we will and can do. On the bottom end as we have grown, so has our de
minimis size limit. And on the larger end, should the need for debt financing ever be a factor, we
are absolutely committed to maintaining our solid investment grade credit rating.
So my hope with this brief summary of the strategy and the criteria is to provide some help to you.
With respect to the here and now in practical terms, I really think its germane to repeat what I
said last quarter. I believe we have some good 2010 acquisition opportunities, but if they dont
materialize for sound financial reasons, then we clearly have the alternative of increasing the
rate of our share repurchases.
I want to thank you for appreciating that we really will and always purpose to remain disciplined
in this area. I also want to thank you for understanding that theres really not a lot more than I
can add. In fact, theres nothing more I can add in terms of specifics to the summary that Ive
just provided as we open it up to Q&A.
So as I close out my comments here, Id like to go back to where I started. I offer my overall
assessment that our organization is executing very well. We have achieved the proper earnings
trajectory to reach our midterm goals and are dedicated to continue delivering consistently good
results.
We know what must be done to maintain our momentum. We recognize we have a lot of work ahead of us
in 2010, and we also recognize that we must focus earnestly, even now, on our 2011 plans and
initiatives.
And as a final comment, in case you havent noticed, I have a great team, and they can execute with
the very best in this industry. After the call, please take a look at the last two slides in the
presentation. They compare this teams performance to our Fortune 500 chemical industry peers and
illustrate my point very well.
Now well open the call for your questions.
QUESTION AND ANSWER
Operator
(Operator Instructions) David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank - Analyst
Thank you, good morning. James, the Advanced Materials margin this quarter, are those for the
full-year sustainable?
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, sir. We have been making steady progress. I think you can see that. There is going to be
theres always going to be some quarter-to-quarter fluctuation. Theres going to be mixed
fluctuation. So thats certainly we purpose to try to do that, but theres no guarantees.
Theres a lot of headwinds, David.
Im sure one of the questions you are going to ask is about pricing because, of course, we are
trying to manage unit margins. Charlie has already talked about currency as a bit of a headwind.
Really if you look at secondary and tertiary petrochemicals, I know you all are watching crude, but
there really is a supply/demand factor that influences those raw materials. And we are projecting
raw materials to move upward during the remainder of the year, and that will be a challenge for us.
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
David, this is Charlie. Just to put a finer point on the margin question. Our revised outlook
certainly contemplates better operating margins than we had previously anticipated for Advanced
Materials. But as you know, quarter-to-quarter fluctuations will always take place. And also as you
know, we really manage our business whether its in terms of our margin initiatives or our cost
management initiatives. Its all really about longer-term levels of profitability. So specific
performance in an individual quarter isnt necessarily an indication of how things will progress in
subsequent quarters.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank - Analyst
And on that same issue, in Lube Additives, in Q2 will you see pricing still exceed raw
materials?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes, Ill try that one, David. I think I recapped in my comments in the script that we have
now had two price increases over the last several months. And as you know, there continues to be
base oil pressure, and this gets to just our ongoing assessment of margins, and we will be paying
attention to that in coming quarters.
An important headwind also, as I noted, is currency. If you were to hold our prior currency
assumption even, then actually wed be seeing $0.20 better in earnings in 2010. So that is also
going to be a factor that we obviously dont have much control over, but thats something that we
are facing right now.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank - Analyst
And just getting this weeks base oil price increase, Charlie, is there a period of digestion
required before you have another selling price increase in lube additives?
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
David, I know how interesting this is for everyone. As I just kind of go back and reference
over time my comments, first of all, we are very interested in working with our customers.
Maintaining their profitability over time is as important to us as maintaining our own. This is
something weve got to do together.
There is a natural period here. And lastly, its really not appropriate for me to comment about
forward-looking pricing actions. We can talk about what we have done, but it just really is not
appropriate for us in a public forum to talk about forward-looking pricing actions.
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes, I would add on top of James comment, David, that the second price, the subsequent price
increase that weve talked about, really for all practical purposes had no impact in the first
quarter. So we should be seeing the impact of that price increase in the second quarter.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank - Analyst
Thank you very much.
Operator
P.J. Juvekar, Citi.
P.J. Juvekar - Citi - Analyst
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
Yes, hi. Good morning. Charlie, can you talk about your volume growth of 28% in lube
additives, and sort of break down that for us between industrial versus consumer versus OEM?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Sure, I can give you a good sense of that, I hope anyway, P.J. Because this is actually a good
part of the story for lube additives, is that we are seeing some nice recovery in that part of the
business. In fact, the volume growth in the driveline and industrial additives in the quarter well
exceeded the volume growth of engine additives in the quarter.
Engine additives, just to give a longer-term perspective, engine additives volumes are pretty much
back to their 2008 kind of run rate. But even with the really good volume growth in driveline and
industrial in the quarter, we are still well behind, about 10% behind the 2008 run rate. And my
point of making that comment is that that should indicate some opportunity for further recovery in
that part of the business.
P.J. Juvekar - Citi - Analyst
Do you believe that there has been any pre-buying ahead of the price increases that you
announced?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
There are so many different factors, its always sort of hard to tell. There might be some
pre-buy. Theres customer order pattern, there might be some restocking. Its always very difficult
to tell. In my prepared comments, we do attribute the majority of it to market recovery, and
factors such as pre-buy are always a very difficult thing to really detect.
P.J. Juvekar - Citi - Analyst
Just one last question if I may about final engine oil prices. So this is what your customers
sell to their customers. Can you talk about what kind of pricing are they getting? Thank you.
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
Mark, youre the one who has been tracking this better than I have. All I can refer you to,
P.J., refer you to a couple of industry trade journals. Id looked at LubesnGreases would be an
example, finished Lube Report. Mark has I think last quarter had .
Mark Sutherland - Lubrizol - Director, IR
We talked about finished lube increases being implemented in February of this year. So to the
best of our knowledge, P.J., the finished lube markets are still strong and our customers have good
pricing action underway.
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
P.J., the quality that is required in todays modern engines really does give finished
lubricant marketers a really high value-added product. Its a relatively small expense of owning
and operating any kind of piece of equipment from a small engine to a very, very large one, and
they provide tremendous value. And as a result of that, our customers are delivering technology to
end users that are very valuable. And as a result to that, their profits have dramatically improved
here over the last several years, as have ours.
P.J. Juvekar - Citi - Analyst
Thank you.
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
Operator
Laurence Alexander, Jefferies & Co.
Amanda Sigouin - Jefferies & Co. - Analyst
Good morning. This is Amanda Sigouin for Laurence. I have a question on the raw materials
pressure for the Advanced Materials business. Which of these businesses do you think might have the
most difficulty passing through raw material volatility?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Ill try that one; this is Charlie. To your specific question, I wouldnt say that theres any
of the businesses that I would call out anything particularly challenging. What I would say is that
a couple points on raws. One is that the Advanced Materials segment is seeing less overall less
raw material pressure than Additives.
The product lines within Advanced Materials that are seeing the greater degree relative to the
others in Advanced Materials would be Coatings and Consumer Specialties. And in fact, both those
product lines have price increases out in the market right now.
And one final point, clearly the one part of our portfolio that has yet to really show any material
improvement clearly is our TempRite business, particularly as it relates to North American housing.
So with the depressed demand in that part of the business, clearly our pricing opportunities are
just not as great.
Amanda Sigouin - Jefferies & Co. - Analyst
Thank you. And just one more on the additives business. I know its difficult, but just trying
to get a better sense of where you think your customers inventory levels are right now. Thanks.
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
I would say our customer inventory levels are at normal levels based on the level of business
they have. Frankly, they could actually be a bit low, particularly with respect to Asia, Latin
America, just simply because the usage rates are increasing at a fairly fast rate. But if I would
just kind of characterize it overall globally, I would say they are at normal levels.
I mean, I dont actually know. Im just trying to give you a sense of what my perspective is.
Amanda Sigouin - Jefferies & Co. - Analyst
Great, thank you.
Operator
Rosemarie Morbelli, Ingalls & Snyder.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst
Good morning all, and congratulations. Were there any particular areas which were stronger
than you expected in the first quarter? Obviously, you are raising your outlook so things are going
better than behind your beyond rather your wildest dreams. Could you help us see which areas did
much better?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
Yes, Rosemarie. Id go back to comments I made earlier about the industrial part of the Lube
Additives segment. For example, our Metalworking Additives business had a very, very strong March.
So recovery in those markets exceeded our expectations.
And actually I would say that in the Advanced Materials segment, we are generally pleased with
those businesses, in particular Estane. Coatings is performing quite nicely and is exceeding our
expectations so far this year.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst
And you are seeing that particular trend those trends continuing into April?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes, thats correct. My comments about strong volumes coming into the second quarter really
extends to virtually the entirety of the corporation.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst
And you are expecting the gross margin for the full year to decline versus the first quarter.
Is that mostly due to raw material cost increases and the price increases lagging as a general
rule, or are there other factors?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
No, it is primarily a raw material issue and because as I noted earlier, we are seeing a
little bit of pressure right now. As also I noted earlier, we still have three quarters to go, so
its always difficult to look too far ahead.
Other factors in addition to raws, though, would be currency. And as I said, weve been looking at
about $0.20 of additional headwind relative to our assumptions back at our February teleconference.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst
Okay, so you are expecting stronger volume growth, but then the profitability will be hit by
those two factors?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Expecting stronger volume growth so far anyway, based on where the euro/dollar relationship is
right now. Thats a pressure. And its too early to tell really what the raw material consequence
will be. That will ultimately play out during the course of the year as we look at factors and
determine what actions we might need to take.
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
And Id just like to add that weve said this several times in the past, and I know that its
not easy because you cant see the variable, but we really do manage unit margins. And as raws move
upward, there is a natural inflation at the top-line level that tends to put downward pressure on
percentages.
And we just dont manage to percentages. We really are managing at the fundamental cash flow level,
meaning unit margins. We are managing volume and mix and operating expenses, and the percentages
just kind of fall where they may. We provide those as a basic guideline because we know thats what
you look at, but thats not what we are actually managing.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
Okay, I appreciate that. And if I may ask one last question. The situation with PIGS countries
in Europe, are those issues baked into your assumptions or could we get some additional headwind
from that quarter?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
I guess, Rosemarie, I would say that we remain relatively cautious about Europe. And so the
sovereign debt issues that we are watching right now clearly are going to raise questions about the
broader European economy. It also raises questions about the strength of the euro. The weaker the
euro, the more currency headwinds we will likely see. So whether weve got a consensus view or not,
I dont know, but we do remain cautious about Europe.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Ingalls & Snyder - Analyst
Okay, thanks a lot.
Operator
Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan - Analyst
Hi, good morning. If I take your first-quarter revenue total in Lube Additives of call it $950
million and I multiply it by 4, I get $3.8 billion. And your total year was call it $3.3 billion.
So if the other three quarters grew by about if the other three quarters were similar, you would
grow by about 15%.
So I take it that from a revenue standpoint or a volume standpoint, the next three quarters should
be smaller than the first quarter, or is that not right?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
You are almost right. We typically see a first-half/second-half volume relationship with
additives of 5149, something along those lines, and thats what our model currently shows for 2010.
So second-half volumes will be slightly lower than first-half based on how we are looking at it
right now, Jeff.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan - Analyst
So if you have some positive price benefit, then presumably your revenues in Lube Additives
for the year should grow faster than 15%?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Our model would show your statement to be accurate, not a whole lot over 15%, but yes.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan - Analyst
In terms of your raw materials, when I look at your cost of goods sold in Lube Additives and I
think about your sequential volume change, it looked to me like there really wasnt very much raw
material cost pressure in the first quarter.
Is that right and is the pressure really something that we will see in the second, or will it take
till the third quarter till we see it?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
You are right. The pricing actions that we put through back in the fourth quarter of last year
were sufficient to address the continued upward pressure on raws in the first quarter. Raws have
continued to rise. That prompted the subsequent price increase, and so we are anticipating a higher
raw material cost in additives in the second quarter.
Jeff, if I could Im going to tell you something you already know, but for others listening on
the line that may not know, theres always a lag between the rise in raws relative to the
responding price increase. So its not a surprise to us that we might be seeing a little bit of
sequential margin pressure in Q2 versus Q1 as these price increases become implemented.
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
Okay, Jeff, I have one more on top of this. I havent teased the numbers apart. I havent
gotten that far yet. But when you specifically focus on cost of goods sold, you are also
specifically focusing on mix. So there is a mix effect in there as well that needs to be accounted
for before you can make kind of an absolute generalization.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan - Analyst
All right, if I can just continue with just a few short ones. Youre operating expenses
sequentially in Lube Additives went from $80 million to $79 million. They went down $1 million, but
your revenues went up $110 million sequentially. How did you do that?
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
Well, I would say that generally speaking and really Ive talked about this in the past
we have a pretty high fixed-cost operating structure. I mean, I can take you into the details, but
at a very high level that really is kind of the fundamental answer, is a very high operating fixed
cost structure both in terms of labor, utilities, so forth and so on. And it doesnt and so
thats really the answer.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan - Analyst
And then I guess lastly for Charlie. So there are these various countries in Europe that seem
to be having issues with their budgets. So does it make sense to hedge currencies or hedge the
euro, or does it not make sense from the standpoint of Lubrizol?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes, its a question that we are often asked and always ask ourselves, because we have a
greater proportion of our expenses being US dollar-based than our revenues, which are largely
derived the majority of which are derived offshore. We have mainly two long-term means by which
we can effectively manage currency exposure. One is, to where we have financing opportunities
offshore, to incur euro-denominated debt, and we take that opportunity whenever we can.
But the other way that we address currency really has to be through pricing, and expect or hope
that the dynamics of our business enable us to effectively address those currency pressures, among
other things, through our pricing action.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan - Analyst
So that could be a challenge for you in the second half?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes. So in my guidance, we are assuming $1.35, and right now the euro is lower than that; its
about $1.32 right now. So if we actually hold at $1.32 for the rest of the year, thats probably a
nickel of earnings headwind relative to the guidance I had given you.
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
If I could, Jeff, go back to a question that you had asked about manufacturing and operating
expense looking like it had gone up in Q1. We had had manufacturing variances which would explain
that, and thats just as we best match our manufacturing costs to our volumes.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan - Analyst
Okay, thank you very much. Thank you for your patience.
Operator
Mike Sison, KeyBanc.
Mike Sison - KeyBanc - Analyst
Hey, guys. Congrats to a strong start to the year. In Advanced Materials when you take a look
at the progression of volumes in the quarter, were any of the particular months stronger? Was there
significant momentum that was had in March versus lets say January and February?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Mike, the year started off January started off well with all the businesses, but I think
pretty much across the board March was the strongest month.
Mike Sison - KeyBanc - Analyst
Okay. So when you think about heading into the second quarter, given that March was the
strongest month, April is doing better, and it tends to be sequentially stronger, is that sort of
the trend we should see on a volume basis heading into the second for Advanced Materials?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes. So April and actually our looks at even May activity look like they might be better than
initially expected. But clearly April, we are outperforming our earlier expectations for the month.
Mike Sison - KeyBanc - Analyst
Okay, great. And when you think about the outlook for base oil or raw materials, do you have a
forecast embedded in your guidance?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
We really dont. There is upward pressure on base oil right now for a variety of reasons, sort
of specific to supply/demand in the refining sector. But our guidance is usually is just
premised on the basis that we are going to manage our margins efficiently as we have in the past.
Mike Sison - KeyBanc - Analyst
Okay, and one last one. Charlie, in your opening comments you suggested that volume could be a
little bit better if you had to look at one of the variables heading into 2010. Any particular
area, region? Asia was really good for you in both segments there. Could you give us a little bit
of color on what could be better in terms of volume for 2010?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
Well, I would say both segments actually could outperform. Within Additives, the drive on
industrial would be an area, and regionally Asia, strong Advanced Materials. I would say that its
pretty much across the board as well. I think the one thing thats holding back Advanced Materials
right now, as I noted earlier, is TempRite. Were just waiting for North American housing to
recover.
TempRite is one extension exception, though, as India which has had something short of not much
short of spectacular volume growth in India. And our expectations continue to be exceeded this year
for TempRite in India.
Mike Sison - KeyBanc - Analyst
All right, thank you.
Operator
Saul Ludwig, Northcoast Research.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
Good morning, guys. Charlie, of the $19 million increase in incentive comp in the quarter, how
much was due to stock price appreciation and how much was due to a good performance?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Sure. Saul, $9 million was just marking to market based on the share price increase. So the
remainder is a combination of our variable pay accruals for the entire organization, our sales
incentive plan for our salesforce across the organization, as well as our annual incentive and
long-term incentive for the more highly compensated employees in the Company.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
So even though a portion of this incentive compensation is due to the general workforce,
thats still booked in the corporate category versus being charged in the segments.
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Actually, there are amounts that are charged to the segments as well, so the corporate
expenses is the majority of where you see the impact. But our variable pay plan, for example, those
additional accruals are showing up in manufacturing and theyre showing up in research where the
employees are located.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
Okay. In the Lube Additive sector and in Advanced Materials, what was the unit change in raw
material cost first quarter versus first quarter?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
In Additives, unit raw material costs year-over-year were down about 5%, and in Advanced
Materials for the quarter was flat.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
Then in terms of the if you look at your as part of gross margin, you have your raw
material component, then you have all your other operating expenses. And in those other operating
expenses, you, of course, had that unabsorbed overhead. Were the other operating expenses actually
down in dollars because of the major change in the reduction in unabsorbed overhead?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Im not so sure I understood the question.
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
I did. Saul, there was some modest improvement, but it was not significant. It was probably
timing based more than anything else.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
I mean the dollars of operating expense .
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. The dollars of operating expense relative to our operating budgets, were performing a
bit better. But again when we budget, we really budget for the year, and then trying to parse it
down by month and by quarter, we dont always get it exactly right. So it is down a little bit, but
I wouldnt over-interpret that. We are managing very well, but basically we are on track.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
Okay. And then other than the influence of future stock price action on corporate expense
which is hard to predict, how should we be thinking about the corporate expense number in the
second, third and fourth quarters, and that will be plus or minus the stock price influence?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Hold on a sec. So corporate should run, those types of accruals aside, should run in the $17
million to $19 million a quarter.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
And does that also include additional non-stock-based incentive comp as part of achieving the
profit plan that youve laid out for us?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes, because as we continue to earn our way through the expected outcome, that should be in
those numbers.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
Great. Okay, and then one final thing. James, with the guidance that you gave for the
three-year plan of getting $0.40 a share from the acquisitions, how much do you think youll have
to spend in cash lets assume they were all cash deals to get that type of return?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Saul, let me try that because Im if you look at chemical industry, particularly for
transactions in that size range, its usually around one-time sales. So our modeling of $0.40, $250
million to $300 million of revenues we would for the purposes of this guidance, wed assume that
itd be about a one-time sale.
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
James Hambrick - Lubrizol - Chairman, President & CEO
Saul, youre lucky that Charlie answered that question, because I wasnt going to.
Saul Ludwig - Northcoast Research - Analyst
Well, I appreciate that. Hey, thank you guys. Great results.
Operator
Dmitry Silversteyn, Longbow Research.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research - Analyst
Good morning, gentlemen. Congratulations to a good start of the year. Im glad I got on the
call before it was over. A couple of questions that Id like to follow up on the Advanced Materials
portion of the business. Youve have, both I think in the Coatings as well as in the Engineered
Polymers, stronger revenue growth than volume growth.
So I guess my question is, are we talking about Im assuming currency was also positive, so was
price mix down in those businesses year-over-year? And was that a function of price concessions
given in 2009 that are just feeding through, or is there some pricing pressure as volumes pick up
and people get more competitive in these markets?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Well, theres a lot Dmitry, Im just looking at my model here. Theres a lot of mix that
goes on here as well, so its really hard to say. Both particularly in Performance Coatings
sells a broad range of products into a broad range of regions and end uses. And actually as Im
looking at my model here, for the full year our outlook for coatings for the full year, revenue
growth will very comfortably exceed volume growth. So theres some nice margin growth, therefore,
that comes with it.
Estane, that was the other one you asked about, right?
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research - Analyst
Yes, particularly Noveon and Engineered Polymers. Im talking about the consumer portion of
Noveon. You like had an 18% revenue growth and a 20% volume growth in Noveon, and a 45% revenue
growth and 53% revenue growth in your polymers.
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes, surfactants is a lower margin component of the consumer specialties product line is
sort of a barbell of products within it. Surfactants are fairly well below average in terms of
profitability in that product line, where as our various suite of Carbopol acrylic thickeners are
much higher volume, and so that can swing very large mix effects to that product line.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research - Analyst
Okay, so my question is that there is no immediate pricing pressures that youre starting to
see as the volumes are starting to come back and theres actually volume to be chased now.
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
No, not at all.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research - Analyst
Okay, good. Second question also on Advanced Materials. Clearly your Additives business
benefited from OEM build rates that we saw in the first quarter, and it sounds like its continuing
into the second quarter as well. Is your exposure to automotive and other OEM manufacturers in the
Advanced Materials sufficient for that to have been a driver in your first-half results? Or is it
just easy comps and some of the construction and some of the other markets coming back that are
driving the results?
I guess what Im trying to understand is as we get into the second half of the year where
automotive build rates in particular are probably going to be nowhere near as robust as they are in
the first half of the year, are we looking for a slowdown in the volume growth that you are
posting?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Advanced Materials has some but not a material exposure to that sector. So where you will see
the biggest influence as the automotive comes back will be in Additives.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research - Analyst
So the Advanced Material recovery that youre seeing with the construction markets stabilizing
but still weak is really driven by the recovery in other early cycle markets?
Charlie Cooley - Lubrizol - SVP & CFO
Yes, thats correct.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research - Analyst
Okay. Thats all the questions I have. Thank you very much.
Operator
Panelists, there are no other further questions in queue at this time.
Mark Sutherland - Lubrizol - Director, IR
Okay, good. Thank you, Steve. Since there are no other questions, Id like to thank everybody
for joining us on the call today and provide some numbers for follow-up. My direct line is
440-347-1206. Steve, can you advise what the replay number is?
Operator
I certainly can. For all those that would like to enjoy the replay, please dial 1-800-475-6701
and enter the access code 151678. If you happen to be dialing from an international location,
please dial 1-320-365-3844, and that dial-in or that access code again is 151678. On behalf of
todays panelists, I would like to thank you for your participation and thank you for using AT&T.
You have a wonderful day. You may now disconnect.
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Apr 29, 2010 / 03:00PM GMT, LZ Q1 2010 Lubrizol Earnings Conference Call
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