Attached files
file | filename |
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10-K - FORM 10-K - PostRock Energy Corp | h69920e10vk.htm |
EX-32.2 - EX-32.2 - PostRock Energy Corp | h69920exv32w2.htm |
EX-31.2 - EX-31.2 - PostRock Energy Corp | h69920exv31w2.htm |
EX-23.2 - EX-23.2 - PostRock Energy Corp | h69920exv23w2.htm |
EX-23.1 - EX-23.1 - PostRock Energy Corp | h69920exv23w1.htm |
EX-21.1 - EX-21.1 - PostRock Energy Corp | h69920exv21w1.htm |
EX-32.1 - EX-32.1 - PostRock Energy Corp | h69920exv32w1.htm |
EX-31.1 - EX-31.1 - PostRock Energy Corp | h69920exv31w1.htm |
Exhibit 99.1
302 FORT WORTH CLUB BUILDING
306 WEST SEVENTH STREET
FORT WORTH, TEXAS 76102-4987
(817) 336-2461
March 11, 2010
Ms. Nancy Richardson
PostRock Energy Corporation.
210 Park Avenue, Suite 2750
Oklahoma City, OK 73102
PostRock Energy Corporation.
210 Park Avenue, Suite 2750
Oklahoma City, OK 73102
Re: | Evaluation Summary | |||
PostRock Energy Corporation Interests | ||||
Proved, Probable and Possible Reserves | ||||
As of December 31, 2009 |
Dear Ms. Richardson:
As requested, we are submitting our estimates of reserves and our forecasts of the
resulting economics attributable to the above captioned interests as of December 31, 2009. The
composite reserve estimates and economic forecasts for the reserves are summarized in the attached
appendix. It is our understanding that the reserve estimates shown in this report constitute 100
percent of reserves owned by PostRock Energy Corporation. This report includes results for an SEC
pricing scenario, as well as our estimates of the sensitivity of such reserves under alternate
price and cost assumptions. This report, completed on March 11, 2010, has been prepared for use in
filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by PostRock Energy Corporation
(PostRock). The discounted value shown in the economic forecasts should not be construed to
represent an estimate of the fair market value by Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, Inc.
As directed, hydrocarbon pricing for the SEC scenario of $3.866 per MMBtu and $61.18 per
barrel was applied as of December 31, 2009 with no escalation. Gas basis differentials of +$0.26
per MMBtu and -$0.60 per MMBtu were applied to the Appalachia and Cherokee Basin properties,
respectively. The gas price was also adjusted for heating values by area. Oil basis differentials
were forecast as -$6.11 per barrel for the Appalachia properties, +$0.50 per barrel for the Kansas
properties, -$2.03 per barrel for the Searight / Hotulke properties in Oklahoma, and +$1.10 per
barrel for the remaining Oklahoma properties.
Operating costs were based on an analysis by PostRock and were accepted as furnished. Direct
lease operating expenses were forecast as $684 per well per month for the Cherokee Basin
properties, $2,494 to $3,934 per well per month for the Searight / Hotulke properties, and $407 per
well per month for the Appalachia properties. Cherokee Basin gas gathering expenses were applied
as $1.70 per Mcf per contractual arrangements. Gathering expenses of $0.70 per Mcf for the Ritchie
County, West Virginia properties and $0.10 per Mcf for the remaining Appalachia properties were
forecast. Gathering expenses appear in the Other Deductions column in the attached economics.
No shrinkage was applied to the
Cherokee Basin net gas volumes since the forecasts are based on historical sales volumes. State
severance tax rates were forecast as 3.64% for Kansas, 4.56% for Oklahoma, 5.44% for West Virginia
and 7.2% for New York. An ad valorem tax rate of 3.5% was applied for the Kansas properties.
Drilling, completion and infrastructure costs were based on an analysis by PostRock and were
accepted as furnished. Capital costs of $125,000 were applied for future locations. The PDSI
reserves are associated with shut-in wells that require no capital to be returned to production.
The PDNP reserves are associated with wells in various stages of completion, behind-pipe zones in
existing producing wells, and shut-in wells requiring capital for production commencement. Neither
expenses nor investments were escalated. The cost of plugging and the salvage value of equipment
have not been considered.
We are also submitting our estimates of reserves and our forecasts of the resulting economics
under two alternate price and cost assumptions: (i) Recombined Methodology and (ii) Recombined
NYMEX Methodology.
Recombined Methodology. This scenario assumes that the midstream services and gas dedication
agreement between Bluestem Pipeline, LLC and Quest Energy Partners, L.P., which are both
wholly-owned subsidiaries of PostRock, is no longer in effect. Under this scenario, Cherokee Basin
gas gathering expenses are applied at $0.80 per Mcf as provided by PostRock to reflect its internal
cost of transportation in the Cherokee Basin. Additional capital costs of approximately $45,000
were applied for future locations for the required infrastructure to connect these locations to
PostRocks gas gathering pipeline network. All other prices and costs used in this scenario are the
same as the SEC scenario.
Recombined NYMEX Methodology. The prices in this scenario were determined based on the
publicly traded NYMEX 2010 to 2015 natural gas and oil forward curve as of February 1, 2010
adjusted for basis differentials and heating values as discussed above. A gas basis differential
of -$0.04 per MMBtu was applied to the Cherokee Basin properties. The NYMEX 5-year average forward
price for natural gas was $6.38 per MMbtu and the NYMEX 5-year average forward price for crude oil
was $82.75 per barrel. This scenario assumes that the midstream services and gas dedication
agreement is no longer in effect. Under this scenario, Cherokee Basin gas gathering expenses are
applied at $0.80 per Mcf as provided by PostRock to reflect its internal cost of transportation in
the Cherokee Basin. Additional capital costs of approximately $45,000 were applied for future
locations for the required infrastructure to connect these locations to PostRocks gas gathering
pipeline network. All other costs used in this scenario are the same as the SEC scenario.
The reserve classifications used conform to the criteria of the SEC. The estimates of
reserves in this report have been prepared in accordance with the definitions and disclosure
guidelines set forth in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Title 17, Code of Federal
Regulations, Modernization of Oil and Gas Reporting, Final Rule released January 14, 2009 in the
Federal Register. The reserves and economics are predicated on the regulatory agency
classifications, rules, policies, laws, taxes and royalties in effect on the date of this report as
noted herein. In evaluating the information at our disposal concerning this report, we have
excluded from our consideration all matters as to which the controlling interpretation may be legal
or accounting, rather than engineering and geoscience. Therefore, the possible effects of changes
in legislation or other Federal or State restrictive actions have not been considered. An on-site
field inspection of the properties has not been performed. The mechanical
operation or conditions of the wells and their related facilities have not been examined nor have
the wells been tested by Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, Inc. Possible environmental liability
related to the properties has not been investigated nor considered.
The reserves were estimated using a combination of the production performance, volumetric and
analogy methods, in each case as we considered to be appropriate and necessary to establish the
conclusions set forth herein. All reserve estimates represent our best judgment based on data
available at the time of preparation and assumptions as to future economic and regulatory
conditions. It should be realized that the reserves actually recovered, the revenue derived
therefrom and the actual cost incurred could be more or less than the estimated amounts.
The reserve estimates were based on interpretations of factual data furnished by Quest
Resource Corporation. Ownership interests were supplied by Quest Resource Corporation and were
accepted as furnished. To some extent, information from public records has been used to check
and/or supplement these data. The basic engineering and geological data were utilized subject to
third party reservations and qualifications. Nothing has come to our attention, however, that
would cause us to believe that we are not justified in relying on such data.
This report was prepared for the exclusive use of PostRock Energy Corporation and its
subsidiaries. Third parties should not rely on it without the written consent of the above and
Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, Inc. Our work-papers and related data are available for inspection
and review by authorized parties.
Respectfully submitted,
CAWLEY, GILLESPIE & ASSOCIATES, INC.
JZM:rkf
Appendix
Composite reserve estimates and economic forecasts for the reserves are summarized below:
SEC Scenario
Proved | Proved | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Developed | Developed | Proved | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Producing | Non-Producing | Undeveloped | Proved | Probable | Possible | |||||||||||||||||||||
Net Reserves |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oil/Condensate |
-Mbbl | 759.1 | 26.3 | 38.7 | 824.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gas |
-MMcf | 56,391.4 | 5,743.8 | 7,739.3 | 69,874.6 | 4,439.2 | 9,125.6 | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oil/Condensate |
-M$ | 44,731.1 | 1,610.9 | 2,386.5 | 48,728.5 | 458.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gas |
-M$ | 202,516.8 | 20,819.1 | 39,766.5 | 263,102.5 | 22,895.2 | 47,066.1 | |||||||||||||||||||
Severance and
Ad Valorem Taxes |
-M$ | 15,589.5 | 1,477.9 | 2,292.7 | 19,360.1 | 1,277.7 | 2,559.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating Expenses |
-M$ | 70,283.7 | 5,730.6 | 12,742.4 | 88,756.6 | 8,011.2 | 12,609.3 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gathering Expenses |
-M$ | 85,218.3 | 8,199.1 | 1,110.7 | 94,528.1 | 549.0 | 1,117.3 | |||||||||||||||||||
Investments |
-M$ | 0.0 | 2,067.9 | 15,330.3 | 17,398.2 | 8,738.5 | 18,500.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating Income (BFIT) |
-M$ | 76,156.5 | 4,954.6 | 10,676.9 | 91,788.0 | 4,776.8 | 12,280.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Discounted @ 10% |
-M$ | 47,131.6 | 2,663.6 | 764.0 | 50,559.2 | 435.0 | 139.2 |
Recombined Methodology
Proved | Proved | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Developed | Developed | Proved | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Producing | Non-Producing | Undeveloped | Proved | Probable | Possible | |||||||||||||||||||||
Net Reserves |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oil/Condensate |
-Mbbl | 759.9 | 26.3 | 51.3 | 837.5 | 330.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gas |
-MMcf | 88,859.4 | 7,626.1 | 8,789.2 | 105,274.6 | 31,755.4 | 9,125.8 | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oil/Condensate |
-M$ | 44,779.4 | 1,611.4 | 3,081.4 | 49,472.2 | 18,200.6 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gas |
-M$ | 309,499.6 | 26,975.0 | 45,151.0 | 381,625.5 | 163,029.1 | 47,066.1 | |||||||||||||||||||
Severance and
Ad Valorem Taxes |
-M$ | 23,035.8 | 1,915.0 | 2,624.2 | 27,575.0 | 9,885.1 | 2,559.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating Expenses |
-M$ | 127,289.2 | 8,585.7 | 14,161.7 | 150,036.6 | 25,675.7 | 12,609.3 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gathering Expenses |
-M$ | 64,667.4 | 5,425.7 | 1,168.2 | 71,261.3 | 4,179.1 | 1,117.3 | |||||||||||||||||||
Investments |
-M$ | 0.0 | 4,732.0 | 17,470.3 | 22,202.3 | 67,881.7 | 18,500.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating Income (BFIT) |
-M$ | 139,286.5 | 7,928.0 | 12,808.0 | 160,022.5 | 73,608.1 | 12,280.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Discounted @ 10% |
-M$ | 95,237.5 | 3,835.2 | 828.7 | 99,901.4 | 2,119.6 | 139.2 |
NYMEX Recombined Methodology
Proved | Proved | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Developed | Developed | Proved | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Producing | Non-Producing | Undeveloped | Proved | Probable | Possible | |||||||||||||||||||||
Net Reserves |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oil/Condensate |
-Mbbl | 832.7 | 36.7 | 51.3 | 920.8 | 330.6 | 65.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gas |
-MMcf | 130,183.7 | 28,688.7 | 58,433.8 | 217,306.4 | 57,419.2 | 94,850.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oil/Condensate |
-M$ | 69,227.3 | 3,089.3 | 4,322.1 | 76,638.7 | 26,592.6 | 5,283.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gas |
-M$ | 866,408.9 | 200,296.0 | 410,533.1 | 1,477,237.9 | 454,833.6 | 671,815.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
Severance and
Ad Valorem Taxes |
-M$ | 62,412.4 | 13,641.8 | 27,671.5 | 103,725.7 | 28,909.8 | 44,034.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating Expenses |
-M$ | 275,648.4 | 41,142.7 | 80,756.4 | 397,547.7 | 63,360.9 | 105,056.6 | |||||||||||||||||||
Gathering Expenses |
-M$ | 97,189.0 | 19,930.7 | 40,265.5 | 157,385.2 | 23,521.9 | 65,474.1 | |||||||||||||||||||
Investments |
-M$ | 40.0 | 27,603.0 | 110,697.5 | 138,340.5 | 113,464.2 | 159,260.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating Income (BFIT) |
-M$ | 500,346.3 | 101,067.1 | 155,464.2 | 756,877.7 | 252,169.3 | 303,273.7 | |||||||||||||||||||
Discounted @ 10% |
-M$ | 325,833.8 | 49,538.8 | 56,527.9 | 431,900.8 | 63,437.2 | 75,996.3 |