Attached files
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| 8-K - FORM 8K - MOSAIC CO | d8k.htm |
| EX-99.1 - TRANSCRIPT OF CONFERENCE CALL - MOSAIC CO | dex991.htm |
 Mosaic’s 2 Quarter Fiscal 2010 Earnings and Conference Call Wednesday, January 6, 2010 Jim Prokopanko, President and CEO Dr. Mike Rahm, VP Market Analysis & Strategic Planning Christine Battist, Director - Investor Relations Exhibit 99.2 nd |
 Slide 2 Safe Harbor Statement This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to,
statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon
the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to
significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not
limited to the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture,
fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and
other pressures and the effects of the current economic and financial turmoil; changes in the
level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign
currency and exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy; changes
in environmental and other governmental regulation, including greenhouse gas regulation;
difficulties or delays in receiving, or increased costs of, necessary governmental permits or
approvals; the effectiveness of our processes for managing our strategic priorities; adverse
weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or the Gulf Coast of the United
States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual costs of asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation differing from management’s current estimates; accidents and other disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations,
including brine inflows at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine and other potential mine
fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as
well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s
reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from
those set forth in the forward- looking statements. |
 Slide 3 Mosaic Sustainability Report www.mosaicco.com/sustainability Six principles that define Mosaic’s commitment to sustainability 1. Investing in people 2. Ensuring environmental stewardship for responsible land and natural resource use. 3. Applying effective agronomic principles to help meet increasing food demands. 4. Improving economic opportunity. 5. Managing our business operations and supply chain with integrity. 6. Leading with excellence. |
 Mosaic’s 2 Quarter Fiscal 2010 nd |
 Slide 5 Financial Results 1 Includes $1.03 per share as a result of the sale of Mosaic’s interest in
Saskferco 2 On December 3, 2009, a special cash dividend of $578.5 million or $1.30 per share was
paid 11/30/09 11/30/08 11/30/09 11/30/08 (In millions, except per share amounts) Net Sales $1,709.7 $3,006.5 $3,166.9 $7,329.0 Gross Margin $307.0 $773.7 $529.2 $2,422.3 (% of net sales) 18% 26% 17% 33% Net Earnings $107.8 $959.8 $208.4 $2,144.5 (% of net sales) 6% 32% 7% 29% Diluted EPS $0.24 $2.15 1 $0.47 $4.81 Effective Tax Rate 29% 33% 27% 32% Cash Flow from Operations $174.8 $386.5 $347.2 $948.0 $2,648.1 2 $2,811.6 Six Months Ended Three Months Ended Cash and Cash Equivalents as of November 30, 2009 & 2008
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 Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010 |
 Slide 7 Financial Results by Segment (in millions) 11/30/09 11/30/08 11/30/09 11/30/08 Net Sales $414.3 $973.2 $747.6 $1,949.6 Operating Earnings $150.6 $547.5 $249.9 $1,025.3 Net Sales $1,328.0 $2,022.6 $2,522.5 $5,351.0 Operating Earnings $29.0 $135.9 $75.5 $1,193.1 Net Sales (Eliminations) ($32.6) $10.7 ($103.2) $28.4 Operating Earnings (Loss) $20.5 ($1.4) $8.9 $12.5 Net Sales $1,709.7 $3,006.5 $3,166.9 $7,329.0 Operating Earnings $200.1 $682.0 $334.3 $2,230.9 Three Months Ended Six Months Ended Potash Phosphates Corporate/Other Total |
 Slide 8 Financial Guidance 3rd Qtr FY 2010 FY 2010 Phosphate Sales Volume 2.2 - 2.6 million tonnes (total segment) DAP Selling Price $310 - $350 per tonne Capital Spending $1.0 billion - $1.2 billion SG&A $350 - $370 million Effective Tax Rate High 20% range Note: Mosaic is not providing financial guidance on potash sales volumes or MOP
selling price until market conditions gather momentum
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 Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010 |
 Slide 10 Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally |
 Slide 11 Another Harvest Rally 2010 New Crop Prices Daily Close of New Crop Options August 1, 2009 to January 5, 2010 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Corn $ BU 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 Soybeans $ Bu Dec 10 Corn Nov 10 Soybeans Source: CME |
 Slide 12 Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally Ideal November weather salvages a fall application season in North America |
 Slide 13 Domestic P&K Shipments Rebound in November U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Mil Tons MIN MAX Range (2004/05-2008/09) 2009/10 3-Yr Average Source: TFI North America MOP Domestic Disapperance 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Mil Tons MIN MAX Range (2004/05-2008/09) 2009/10 3-Yr Average Source: IPNI and TFI 2 K O |
 Slide 14 Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally Ideal November weather salvages a fall application season in North America Recovery in P&K application rates |
 Slide 15 Crop Nutrient Costs Have Declined Crop Nutrient Costs on Corn in Iowa Bushels of Corn Per Acre 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: Iowa State University, USDA and Mosaic Bu Corn |
 Slide 16 Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally Ideal November weather salvages a fall application season in North America Recovery in P&K application rates China imports ~600,000 tonnes of DAP |
 Slide 17 Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally Ideal November weather salvages a fall application season in North America Recovery in P&K application rates China imports ~600,000 tonnes of DAP Customers begin to position phosphate for deferred application |
 Slide 18 Market Impact Phosphate prices surge (expectations of a seasonal drop change quickly) 2009 Weekly DAP Prices fob Tampa Vessel 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 1/1/09 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09 1/1/10 $ MT Source: Fertecon |
 Slide 19 Market Impact Phosphate prices surge (expectations of a seasonal drop change quickly) Potash buyers remain cautious (expectations of a price decline) • Hand-to-mouth shipments to meet end user demand • Minimal channel inventories |
 Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010 |
 Slide 21 Factors To Watch Agricultural commodity prices • Weather • Dollar, oil and commodity fund strategies |
 Slide 22 Global Stocks Still Not Secure World Grain and Oilseed Stocks 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 L 10/11 M 10/11 H Mil Tonnes 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 28% 31% 34% Percent Stocks Percent of Use Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios) 2010/11 Scenario Assumptions Low Medium High Harvested Area Change -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% Yield Deviation from 11-Year Trend Largest Negative 0 Largest Positve Demand Growth 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% |
 Slide 23 Factors To Watch Agricultural commodity prices • Weather • Dollar, oil and commodity fund strategies Potash demand response to lower prices |
 Slide 24 Factors To Watch Agricultural commodity prices • Weather • Dollar, oil and commodity fund strategies Potash demand response to lower prices Government policies • China phosphate export tax |
 Slide 25 Factors To Watch Agricultural commodity prices • Weather • Dollar, oil and commodity fund strategies Potash demand response to lower prices Government policies • China phosphate export tax Potential N America supply chain pinch points |
 Slide 26 2010 Outlook Strong recovery in P&K demand and shipments • High agricultural commodity prices and solid farm economics • Need to re-stock a bare distribution pipeline • Potential North American supply chain bottlenecks this spring
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 Slide 27 2010 Outlook Strong recovery in P&K demand and shipments • High agricultural commodity prices and solid farm economics • Need to re-stock a bare distribution pipeline • Potential North American supply chain bottlenecks this spring Phosphate market remains tight • Strong domestic and offshore demand prospects • Low producer stocks and strong sales books today • Peak Northern Hemisphere demand still ahead • Limited exports from China during the first half of 2010 |
 Slide 28 2010 Outlook Strong recovery in P&K demand and shipments • High agricultural commodity prices and solid farm economics • Need to re-stock a bare distribution pipeline • Potential North American supply chain bottlenecks this spring Phosphate market remains tight • Strong domestic and offshore demand prospects • Low producer stocks and strong sales books today • Peak Northern Hemisphere demand still ahead • Limited exports from China during the first half of 2010 Potash market comes into balance • Recent price discovery expected to unleash large pent-up demand • Broad-based demand recovery from all corners of the globe • Steady decline in producer stocks to average levels by mid-year
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 Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010 |
 Slide 30 Mosaic Positioned for Demand Recovery Confident in outlook for agriculture • Farmer economics are strong • Continued strong grain and oilseed demand growth Positive trends • Phosphates – uptick in pricing; demand at normal levels • Potash – demand will emerge soon Commitment to value creation • Grow Potash business through expansions • Grow value in Phosphates business • Unique advantage with phosphates and potash |
 Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010 Thank you |