FORM 10-Q
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
þ
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QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 | |
For the quarterly period ended MARCH 31, 2005 | ||
o
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TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 | |
For the transition period from to | ||
Commission file number 1-10816 |
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION
WISCONSIN | 39-1486475 | |
(State or other jurisdiction of | (I.R.S. Employer | |
incorporation or organization) | Identification No.) | |
250 E. KILBOURN AVENUE | 53202 | |
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN | (Zip Code) | |
(Address of principal executive offices) |
(414) 347-6480
(Registrants telephone number, including area code)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.
YES þ | NO o |
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an accelerated filer (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Act).
YES þ | NO o |
Indicate the number of shares outstanding of each of the issuers classes of common stock, as of the latest practicable date.
CLASS OF STOCK | PAR VALUE | DATE | NUMBER OF SHARES | |||||||
Common stock
|
$ | 1.00 | 4/30/05 | 94,374,078 |
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No. | ||||||||
3 | ||||||||
4 | ||||||||
5 | ||||||||
6-11 | ||||||||
12-36 | ||||||||
36 | ||||||||
36 | ||||||||
37 | ||||||||
39 | ||||||||
40 | ||||||||
41 | ||||||||
Bridge Credit Agreement | ||||||||
Five-Year Credit Agreeent | ||||||||
Computation of Net Income | ||||||||
Certification of CEO under Section 302 | ||||||||
Certification of CFO under Section 302 | ||||||||
Certification of CEO and CFO under Section 906 |
Page 2
PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
March 31, | December 31, | |||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
(In thousands of dollars) | ||||||||
ASSETS |
||||||||
Investment portfolio: |
||||||||
Securities, available-for-sale, at market value: |
||||||||
Fixed maturities |
$ | 5,476,635 | $ | 5,413,662 | ||||
Equity securities |
5,326 | 5,326 | ||||||
Short-term investments |
185,065 | 163,639 | ||||||
Total investment portfolio |
5,667,026 | 5,582,627 | ||||||
Cash |
2,031 | 2,829 | ||||||
Accrued investment income |
63,960 | 67,255 | ||||||
Reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves |
16,233 | 17,302 | ||||||
Prepaid reinsurance premiums |
6,344 | 6,836 | ||||||
Premiums receivable |
87,485 | 95,396 | ||||||
Home office and equipment, net |
33,954 | 36,382 | ||||||
Deferred insurance policy acquisition costs |
26,663 | 27,714 | ||||||
Investments in joint ventures |
406,719 | 414,309 | ||||||
Other assets |
134,063 | 130,041 | ||||||
Total assets |
$ | 6,444,478 | $ | 6,380,691 | ||||
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY |
||||||||
Liabilities: |
||||||||
Loss reserves |
$ | 1,134,100 | $ | 1,185,594 | ||||
Unearned premiums |
139,101 | 143,433 | ||||||
Short- and long-term debt (note 2) |
655,215 | 639,303 | ||||||
Income taxes payable |
154,575 | 109,741 | ||||||
Other liabilities |
163,806 | 158,981 | ||||||
Total liabilities |
2,246,797 | 2,237,052 | ||||||
Contingencies (note 3) |
||||||||
Shareholders equity: |
||||||||
Common stock, $1 par value, shares authorized
300,000,000; shares issued, 3/31/05 - 122,366,592
12/31/04 - 122,324,295;
shares outstanding, 3/31/05 - 95,573,151
12/31/04 - 96,260,864 |
122,367 | 122,324 | ||||||
Paid-in capital |
257,298 | 270,450 | ||||||
Treasury stock (shares at cost, 3/31/05 - 26,793,441
12/31/04 - 26,063,431) |
(1,364,438 | ) | (1,313,473 | ) | ||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax |
66,691 | 123,383 | ||||||
Retained earnings |
5,115,763 | 4,940,955 | ||||||
Total shareholders equity |
4,197,681 | 4,143,639 | ||||||
Total liabilities and shareholders equity |
$ | 6,444,478 | $ | 6,380,691 | ||||
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
Page 3
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
(In thousands of dollars, except per share data) | ||||||||
Revenues: |
||||||||
Premiums written: |
||||||||
Direct |
$ | 342,287 | $ | 358,170 | ||||
Assumed |
202 | 17 | ||||||
Ceded |
(30,250 | ) | (29,125 | ) | ||||
Net premiums written |
312,239 | 329,062 | ||||||
Decrease in unearned premiums, net |
3,840 | 12,454 | ||||||
Net premiums earned |
316,079 | 341,516 | ||||||
Investment income, net of expenses |
57,003 | 53,141 | ||||||
Realized investment gains, net |
1,565 | 9,321 | ||||||
Other revenue |
10,261 | 11,461 | ||||||
Total revenues |
384,908 | 415,439 | ||||||
Losses and expenses: |
||||||||
Losses incurred, net |
98,866 | 190,677 | ||||||
Underwriting and other expenses, net |
67,895 | 67,314 | ||||||
Interest expense |
10,722 | 10,248 | ||||||
Total losses and expenses |
177,483 | 268,239 | ||||||
Income before tax and joint ventures |
207,425 | 147,200 | ||||||
Provision
for income tax |
59,660 | 40,131 | ||||||
Income from joint ventures, net of tax |
34,248 | 23,004 | ||||||
Net income |
$ | 182,013 | $ | 130,073 | ||||
Earnings per share (note 4): |
||||||||
Basic |
$ | 1.91 | $ | 1.32 | ||||
Diluted |
$ | 1.90 | $ | 1.31 | ||||
Weighted average common shares
outstanding - diluted (shares in
thousands, note 4) |
95,784 | 99,174 | ||||||
Dividends per share |
$ | 0.0750 | $ | 0.0375 | ||||
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
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MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
(In thousands of dollars) | ||||||||
Cash flows from operating activities: |
||||||||
Net income |
$ | 182,013 | $ | 130,073 | ||||
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash
provided by operating activities: |
||||||||
Amortization of deferred insurance policy
acquisition costs |
5,632 | 5,454 | ||||||
Increase in deferred insurance policy
acquisition costs |
(4,581 | ) | (5,152 | ) | ||||
Depreciation and amortization |
4,519 | 4,627 | ||||||
Decrease in accrued investment income |
3,295 | 1,823 | ||||||
Decrease in reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves |
1,069 | 893 | ||||||
Decrease in prepaid reinsurance premiums |
492 | 239 | ||||||
Decrease in premium receivable |
7,911 | 17,632 | ||||||
(Decrease) increase in loss reserves |
(51,494 | ) | 48,137 | |||||
Decrease in unearned premiums |
(4,332 | ) | (12,694 | ) | ||||
Increase in income taxes payable |
44,834 | 65,652 | ||||||
Equity earnings in joint ventures |
(49,872 | ) | (33,027 | ) | ||||
Distributions from joint ventures |
60,375 | 41,550 | ||||||
Other |
36,503 | (20,812 | ) | |||||
Net cash provided by operating activities |
236,364 | 244,395 | ||||||
Cash flows from investing activities: |
||||||||
Purchase of fixed maturities |
(289,505 | ) | (942,035 | ) | ||||
Additional investment in joint ventures |
(1,760 | ) | (4,085 | ) | ||||
Sale of equity securities |
616 | 1,604 | ||||||
Proceeds from sale of fixed maturities |
85,089 | 669,429 | ||||||
Proceeds from maturity of fixed maturities |
49,372 | 63,771 | ||||||
Net cash used in investing activities |
(156,188 | ) | (211,316 | ) | ||||
Cash flows from financing activities: |
||||||||
Dividends paid to shareholders |
(7,201 | ) | (3,696 | ) | ||||
Net proceeds from short-term debt |
14,947 | 208 | ||||||
Reissuance (return) of treasury stock |
570 | (365 | ) | |||||
Repurchase of common stock |
(68,567 | ) | (26,654 | ) | ||||
Common stock issued |
703 | 17,776 | ||||||
Net cash used in financing activities |
(59,548 | ) | (12,731 | ) | ||||
Net increase in cash and short-term investments |
20,628 | 20,348 | ||||||
Cash and short-term investments at beginning of period |
166,468 | 161,346 | ||||||
Cash and short-term investments at end of period |
$ | 187,096 | $ | 181,694 | ||||
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
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MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
Note 1 Basis of presentation and summary of certain significant accounting policies
The accompanying unaudited consolidated financial statements of MGIC Investment Corporation (the Company) and its wholly-owned subsidiaries have been prepared in accordance with the instructions to Form 10-Q and do not include all of the other information and disclosures required by accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America. These statements should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes thereto for the year ended December 31, 2004 included in the Companys Annual Report on Form 10-K for that year.
The accompanying consolidated financial statements have not been audited by independent auditors in accordance with the standards of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (United States), but in the opinion of management such financial statements include all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring accruals, necessary to summarize fairly the Companys financial position and results of operations. The results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2005 may not be indicative of the results that may be expected for the year ending December 31, 2005.
Stock-based compensation
The Company has certain stock-based compensation plans. Effective January 1, 2003, the Company adopted the fair value recognition provisions of SFAS No. 123, Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation, prospectively to all employee awards granted or modified on or after January 1, 2003. The adoption of SFAS No. 123 did not have a material effect on the Companys results of operations or its financial position. Under the fair value method, compensation cost is measured at the grant date based on the fair value of the award and is recognized over the service period which generally corresponds to the vesting period. Awards under the Companys plans generally vest over periods ranging from one to five years. The cost related to stock-based employee compensation included in the determination of net income for 2005 and 2004 is less than that which would have been recognized if the fair value based method had been applied to all awards since the original effective date of SFAS No. 123. The following table illustrates the effect on net income and earnings per share if the fair value method had been applied to all outstanding and unvested awards in each period.
Page 6
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
(in thousands of dollars, | ||||||||
except per share data) | ||||||||
Net income, as reported |
$ | 182,013 | $ | 130,073 | ||||
Add stock-based employee compensation
expense included in reported net income,
net of tax |
2,522 | 1,758 | ||||||
Deduct stock-based employee compensation
expense determined under fair value method
for all awards, net of tax |
(3,622 | ) | (2,325 | ) | ||||
Pro forma net income |
$ | 180,913 | $ | 129,506 | ||||
Earnings per share: |
||||||||
Basic, as reported |
$ | 1.91 | $ | 1.32 | ||||
Basic, pro forma |
$ | 1.90 | $ | 1.31 | ||||
Diluted, as reported |
$ | 1.90 | $ | 1.31 | ||||
Diluted, pro-forma |
$ | 1.89 | $ | 1.31 | ||||
New Accounting Standards
The guidance contained in EITF 03-1 has been delayed by FSP EITF 03-1-1, Effective Date of Paragraphs 10-20 of EITF Issue No. 03-1 The meaning of Other-Than-Temporary Impairment and Its Application to Certain Investments. The delay of the effective date will be superseded with the final issuance of proposed FSP EITF Issue 03-1-a, Implementation Guidance for the Application of Paragraph 16 of EITF Issue No. 03-1 which was subject to comments through October 29, 2004. As a result of the comments received, the FASB will reconsider EITF 03-1 in its entirety, therefore the impact of FSP EITF 03-1-a on the Companys financial position or results of operations cannot be determined at this time. Under the proposed guidance, it may be more likely that a decrease in the market value of certain investments in the Companys fixed income portfolio will be required to be recognized as a realized loss in the statement of operations than under existing accounting standards.
In December 2004 the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued FASB Statement No. 123R, Share-Based Payment. This statement is a revision of FASB Statement No. 123, Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation. The fair value recognition provisions of FASB No 123 were voluntarily adopted by the Company in 2003 prospectively to all employee awards granted or modified on or after January 1, 2003 under FASB No. 148, Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation Transition and Disclosure. The adoption did not have a material effect on the Companys results of operations or its financial position. FASB No. 123R requires that the compensation
Page 7
cost relating to share-based payment transactions be measured based on the fair value of the equity or liability instrument issued and be recognized in the financial statements of the company. In April 2005 the effective date of this statement was delayed. FAS 123R is now effective for annual reporting periods that begin after June 15, 2005. The statement will be adopted by the Company beginning January 1, 2006 under the modified prospective method. The adoption will not have a material effect on the Companys results of operations or its financial position.
Note 2 Short- and long-term debt
The Company has a $285 million commercial paper program, which is rated A-1 by Standard and Poors (S&P) and P-1 by Moodys. At March 31, 2005 and 2004, the Company had $155.5 million and $100.5 million in commercial paper outstanding with a weighted average interest rate of 2.85% and 1.10%, respectively.
In March of 2005, the Company obtained a $300 million, five year revolving credit facility, expiring in 2010. The facility replaced the previous $285 million facility that was due to expire in 2006. Under the terms of the credit facility, the Company must maintain shareholders equity of at least $2.25 billion and Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC) must maintain a risk-to-capital ratio of not more than 22:1 and maintain policyholders position (which includes MGICs statutory surplus and its contingency reserve) of not less than the amount required by Wisconsin insurance regulation. At March 31, 2005, the Company met these requirements. The facility will continue to be used as a liquidity back up facility for the outstanding commercial paper. The remaining credit available under the facility after reduction for the amount necessary to support the commercial paper was $144.5 million at March 31, 2005.
The Company had $300 million, 7.5% Senior Notes due in October 2005 and $200 million, 6% Senior Notes due in 2007 outstanding at March 31, 2005 and 2004. The Company intends to refinance the $300 million of Senior Notes due in October through the issuance of senior debt. In March 2005, the Company obtained a bank commitment for a credit facility of $300 million expiring on the earlier of 364 days from the closing date of the facility or the repayment of the 7.5% Senior Notes. The Company intends to draw upon this facility to refinance these Senior Notes if they cannot otherwise be refinanced. At March 31, 2005 and 2004, the market value of the outstanding debt was $667.3 million and $641.7 million, respectively.
Interest payments on all long-term and short-term debt were $8.6 million and $7.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004, respectively.
In March 2005, a swap designated as a cash flow hedge was amended to coincide with the new credit facility. Under the terms of the swap contract, the Company pays a fixed rate of 5.07% and receives an interest rate based on LIBOR. The swap has an expiration date coinciding with the maturity of the credit facility and is designated as a cash flow hedge. The cash flow swap outstanding at March 31, 2005 and 2004 is evaluated quarterly using regression analysis with any ineffectiveness being recorded as an expense. To date this evaluation has not resulted in any hedge ineffectiveness. Swaps are subject to credit risk to the extent the counterparty would be unable to discharge its obligations under the swap agreements.
Page 8
Expense on the interest rate swaps for the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004 of approximately $0.5 million and $0.9 million, respectively, was included in interest expense. Gains or losses arising from the amendment or termination of interest rate swaps are deferred and amortized to interest expense over the life of the hedged items.
Note 3 Litigation and contingencies
The Company is involved in litigation in the ordinary course of business. In the opinion of management, the ultimate resolution of this pending litigation will not have a material adverse effect on the financial position or results of operations of the Company.
Consumers are bringing a growing number of lawsuits against home mortgage lenders and settlement service providers. In recent years, seven mortgage insurers, including the Companys MGIC subsidiary, have been involved in litigation alleging violations of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, which is commonly known as RESPA, and the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which is commonly known as FCRA. MGICs settlement of class action litigation against it under RESPA became final in October 2003. MGIC settled the named plaintiffs claims in litigation against it under FCRA in late December 2004 following denial of class certification in June 2004. There can be no assurance that MGIC will not be subject to future litigation under RESPA or FCRA.
Spokesmen for insurance commissioners in Colorado and North Carolina have been publicly reported as saying that those commissioners are considering investigating or reviewing captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements. Insurance departments or other officials in other states may also conduct such investigations or reviews. The anti-referral fee provisions of RESPA provide that HUD as well as the insurance commissioner or attorney general of any state may bring an action to enjoin violations of these provisions of RESPA. The insurance law provisions of many states prohibit paying for the referral of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to enforce this prohibition. While the Company believes its captive reinsurance arrangements are in conformity with applicable laws and regulations, it is not possible to predict the outcome of any such reviews or investigations nor is it possible to predict their effect on the Company or the mortgage insurance industry.
Under its contract underwriting agreements, the Company may be required to provide certain remedies to its customers if certain standards relating to the quality of the Companys underwriting work are not met. The cost of remedies provided by the Company to customers for failing to meet these standards has not been material to the Companys financial position or results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004.
Note 4 Earnings per share
The Companys basic and diluted earnings per share (EPS) have been calculated in accordance with SFAS No. 128, Earnings Per Share. The Companys net income is the same for both basic and diluted EPS. Basic EPS is based on the weighted average
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number of common shares outstanding. Diluted EPS is based on the weighted average number of common shares outstanding plus common stock equivalents which include stock awards and stock options. The following is a reconciliation of the weighted average number of shares used for basic EPS and diluted EPS.
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
(Shares in thousands) | ||||||||
Weighted
average shares - Basic |
95,265 | 98,674 | ||||||
Common stock equivalents |
519 | 500 | ||||||
Weighted
average shares - Diluted |
95,784 | 99,174 | ||||||
Note 5 Comprehensive income
The Companys total comprehensive income, as calculated per SFAS No. 130, Reporting Comprehensive Income, was as follows:
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
(In thousands of dollars) | ||||||||
Net income |
$ | 182,013 | $ | 130,073 | ||||
Other comprehensive (loss) income |
(56,692 | ) | 8,399 | |||||
Total comprehensive income |
$ | 125,321 | $ | 138,472 | ||||
Other comprehensive income (loss) (net of tax): |
||||||||
Change in unrealized net derivative gains and losses |
$ | 711 | $ | (111 | ) | |||
Amortization of deferred losses on derivatives |
203 | 270 | ||||||
Change in unrealized gains and losses on investments |
(58,356 | ) | 9,263 | |||||
Other |
750 | (1,023 | ) | |||||
Other comprehensive (loss) income |
$ | (56,692 | ) | $ | 8,399 | |||
At March 31, 2005, accumulated other comprehensive income of $66.7 million included $67.7 million of net unrealized gains on investments and ($1.0) million relating to derivative financial instruments. At December 31, 2004, accumulated other comprehensive income of $123.4 million included $126.0 million of net unrealized gains on investments, ($1.9) million relating to derivative financial instruments and ($0.7) million relating to the accumulated other comprehensive loss of the Companys joint venture investment.
Page 10
Note 6 Benefit Plans
The following table provides the components of net periodic benefit cost for the pension and other postretirement benefit plans:
March 31, | ||||||||||||||||
Other Postretirement | ||||||||||||||||
Pension Benefits | Benefits | |||||||||||||||
2005 | 2004 | 2005 | 2004 | |||||||||||||
(In thousands of dollars) | ||||||||||||||||
Service cost |
$ | 2,210 | $ | 2,491 | $ | 919 | $ | 946 | ||||||||
Interest cost |
2,371 | 2,250 | 984 | 954 | ||||||||||||
Expected return on plan assets |
(3,355 | ) | (2,590 | ) | (560 | ) | (430 | ) | ||||||||
Recognized net actuarial loss (gain) |
| 379 | 127 | 187 | ||||||||||||
Amortization of transition obligation |
| | 71 | 133 | ||||||||||||
Amortization of prior service cost |
185 | 183 | | | ||||||||||||
Net periodic benefit cost |
$ | 1,411 | $ | 2,713 | $ | 1,541 | $ | 1,790 | ||||||||
The Company previously disclosed in its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2004 that it expected to contribute approximately $10.9 million and $4.9 million, respectively, to its pension and postretirement plans in 2005. As of March 31, 2005, no contributions have been made.
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ITEM 2. MANAGEMENTS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Overview
Business and General Environment
The Company, through its subsidiary Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC), is the leading provider of private mortgage insurance in the United States to the home mortgage lending industry. The Companys principal products are primary mortgage insurance and pool mortgage insurance. Primary mortgage insurance may be written through the flow market channel, in which loans are insured in individual, loan-by-loan transactions. Primary mortgage insurance may also be written through the bulk market channel, in which portfolios of loans are individually insured in single, bulk transactions.
The Companys results of operations are affected by:
| Premiums written and earned |
Premiums written and earned in a year are influenced by:
| New insurance written, which increases the size of the in force book of insurance. New insurance written is the aggregate principal amount of the mortgages that are insured during a period and is referred to as NIW. NIW is affected by many factors, including the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations and competition to provide credit enhancement on those mortgages, including competition from other mortgage insurers and alternatives to mortgage insurance, such as 80-10-10 loans. | |||
| Cancellations, which reduce the size of the in force book of insurance that generates premiums. Cancellations due to refinancings are affected by the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates throughout the in force book. | |||
| Premium rates, which are affected by the risk characteristics of the loans insured and the percentage of coverage on the loans. | |||
| Premiums ceded to reinsurance subsidiaries of certain mortgage lenders and risk sharing arrangements with the GSEs. |
Premiums are generated by the insurance that is in force during all or a portion of the period. Hence, lower average insurance in force in one period compared to another is a factor that will reduce premiums written and earned, although this effect may be mitigated (or enhanced) by differences in the average premium rate between the two periods as well as by premium that is ceded. Also, NIW and cancellations during a period will generally have a greater effect on premiums written and earned in subsequent periods than in the period in which these events occur.
Page 12
| Investment income |
The investment portfolio is comprised almost entirely of highly rated, fixed income securities. The principal factors that influence investment income are the size of the portfolio and its yield.
| Losses incurred |
Losses incurred are the expense that results from a payment delinquency on an insured loan. As explained under Critical Accounting Policies in Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in the Companys Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004, this expense is recognized only when a loan is delinquent. Losses incurred are generally affected by:
| The state of the economy, which affects the likelihood that loans will become delinquent and whether loans that are delinquent cure their delinquency. | |||
| The product mix of the in force book, with loans having higher risk characteristics generally resulting in higher delinquencies and claims. | |||
| The average claim payment, which is affected by the size of loans insured (higher average loan amounts tend to increase losses incurred), the percentage coverage on insured loans (deeper average coverage tends to increase incurred losses), and housing values, which affect the Companys ability to mitigate its losses through sales of properties with delinquent mortgages. | |||
| The distribution of claims over the life of a book. Historically, the first years after a loan is originated are a period of relatively low claims, with claims increasing substantially for several years after that and then declining, although persistency and the condition of the economy can affect this pattern. | |||
| Underwriting and other expenses. |
The operating expenses of the Company generally vary primarily due to contract underwriting volume, which in turn generally varies with the level of mortgage origination activity. Contract underwriting generates fee income included in Other revenue.
The Companys results of operations are also affected by income from joint ventures. Joint venture income principally consists of the aggregate results of the Companys investment in two less than majority owned joint ventures, Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC (C-BASS) and Sherman Financial Group LLC (Sherman).
C-BASS: C-BASS is primarily an investor in the credit risk of credit-sensitive single-family residential mortgages. It finances these activities through borrowings included on its balance sheet and by securitization activities generally conducted through off-balance sheet entities. C-BASS generally retains the first-loss and other subordinate securities created in the securitization. The loans owned by C-BASS and underlying C-BASSs mortgage securities investments are serviced by Litton Loan Servicing LP, a subsidiary of C-BASS (Litton). Littons servicing operations primarily support
Page 13
C-BASSs investment in credit risk, and investments made by funds managed or co-managed by C-BASS, rather than generating fees for servicing loans owned by third-parties.
C-BASSs consolidated results of operations are affected by:
| Net interest income |
Net interest income is principally a function of the size of C-BASSs portfolio of whole loans and mortgage and other securities, and the spread between the interest income generated by these assets and the interest expense of funding them. Interest income from a particular security is recognized based on the expected yield for the security.
| Gain on sale and liquidation |
Gain on sale and liquidation results from sales of mortgage and other securities, and liquidation of mortgage loans. Securities may be sold in the normal course of business or because of the exercise of call rights by third parties. Mortgage loan liquidations result from loan payoffs, from foreclosure or from sales of real estate acquired through foreclosure.
| Servicing revenue |
Servicing revenue is a function of the unpaid principal balance of mortgage loans serviced and servicing fees and charges. The unpaid principal balance of mortgage loans serviced by Litton is affected by mortgages acquired by C-BASS because servicing on subprime and other mortgages acquired is generally transferred to Litton. Litton also services or provides special servicing on loans in mortgage securities owned by funds managed or co-managed by C-BASS. Litton also may obtain servicing on loans in third party mortgage securities acquired by C-BASS or when the loans become delinquent by a specified number of payments (known as special servicing).
| Gain on securitization |
Gain on securitization is a function of the face amount of the collateral in the securitization and the margin realized in the securitization. This margin depends on the difference between the proceeds realized in the securitization and the purchase price paid by C-BASS for the collateral. The proceeds realized in a securitization include the value of securities created in the securitization that are retained by C-BASS.
| Revenues from money management activities |
These revenues include management fees from C-BASS issued collateralized bond obligations (CBOs), equity in earnings from C-BASS investments in investment funds managed or co-managed by C-BASS and management fees and incentive income from investment funds managed or co-managed by C-BASS.
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| Hedging gains and losses, net of mark-to-market and whole loan reserve changes |
Hedging gains and losses primarily consist of changes in the value of derivative instruments (including interest rate swaps, interest rate caps and futures) and short positions, as well as realized gains and losses from the closing of hedging positions. C-BASS uses derivative instruments and short sales in a strategy to reduce the impact of changes in interest rates on the value of its mortgage loans and securities. Changes in value of derivative instruments are subject to current recognition because C-BASS does not account for the derivatives as hedges under FAS 133.
Mortgage and other securities are classified by C-BASS as trading securities and are carried at fair value, as estimated by C-BASS. Changes in fair value between period ends (a mark-to-market) are reflected in C-BASSs statement of operations as unrealized gains or losses. Changes in fair value of mortgage and other securities may relate to changes in credit spreads or to changes in the level of interest rates or the slope of the yield curve. Mortgage loans are not marked-to-market and are carried at the lower of cost or fair value on a portfolio basis, as estimated by C-BASS.
During a period in which short-term interest rates decline, in general, C-BASSs hedging positions will decline in value and the change in value, to the extent that the hedges related to whole loans, will be reflected in C-BASSs earnings for the period as an unrealized loss. The related increase, if any, in the value of mortgage loans will not be reflected in earnings but, absent any countervailing factors, when mortgage loans owned during the period are securitized, the proceeds realized in the securitization should increase to reflect the increased value of the collateral.
Sherman: Sherman is principally engaged in the business of purchasing and collecting for its own account delinquent consumer assets which are primarily unsecured. The borrowings used to finance these activities are included in Shermans balance sheet.
Shermans consolidated results of operations are affected by:
| Revenues from receivable portfolios |
These revenues are the cash collections on such portfolios, and depend on the aggregate amount of receivables owned by Sherman, the type of receivable and the length of time that the receivable has been owned by Sherman.
| Amortization of receivables portfolios |
Amortization is the recovery of the cost to purchase the receivable portfolios. Amortization expense is a function of estimated collections from the portfolios over their estimated lives. If estimated collections cannot be reasonably predicted, cost is fully recovered before any net revenue (the difference between
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revenues from a receivable portfolio and that portfolios amortization) is recognized.
| Costs of collection, which include servicing fees paid to third parties to collect receivables. |
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2005 First Quarter Results
The Companys results of operations in the first three months of 2005 were principally affected by:
| Losses incurred |
Losses incurred for the first quarter of 2005 decreased compared to the same period in 2004 primarily due to a larger decrease in the delinquency inventory, as well as smaller increases in the estimates regarding how many delinquencies will eventually result in a claim and how much will be paid on claims when compared to the prior period.
| Premiums written and earned |
During the first quarter of 2005, the Companys written and earned premiums were lower than in the first quarter of 2004 due to a decline in the average insurance in force.
| Investment income |
During the first quarter of 2005, investment income was higher than in the first quarter of 2004 due to an increase in the portfolio, as well as a slight increase in the pre-tax yield.
| Underwriting and other expenses |
Underwriting and other expenses in the first quarter of 2005 were comparable to the same period in 2004.
| Income from joint ventures |
Income from joint ventures increased in the first quarter of 2005 compared to the same period in 2004 due to higher income from each of Sherman and C-BASS.
The discussion below should be read in conjunction with Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in the Companys Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004.
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RESULTS OF CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS
As discussed under Risk Factors below, actual results may differ materially from the results contemplated by forward looking statements. The Company is not undertaking any obligation to update any forward looking statements it may make in the following discussion or elsewhere in this document.
NIW
The amount of MGICs NIW (this term is defined in the Overview-Business and General Environment section) during the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004 was as follows:
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
($ billions) | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
Flow NIW |
$ | 8.9 | $ | 10.8 | ||||
Bulk NIW |
2.5 | 2.1 | ||||||
Total NIW |
$ | 11.4 | $ | 12.9 | ||||
Refinance volume as a % of primary
flow NIW |
33 | % | 36 | % |
The decrease in NIW on a flow basis was primarily the result of continued market growth for structured transactions that offer alternatives to mortgage insurance, as well as a decrease in refinance volume. Refinance volume in turn is driven by changes in interest rates as discussed with respect to cancellations below. For a discussion of NIW written through the bulk channel, see Bulk transactions below. The Company expects new insurance written for the last three quarters of 2005 to be lower than for the comparable period in 2004.
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Cancellations and insurance in force
NIW and cancellations of primary insurance in force during the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004 were as follows:
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
($ billions) | ||||||||
NIW |
$ | 11.4 | $ | 12.9 | ||||
Cancellations |
(16.4 | ) | (17.2 | ) | ||||
Change in primary insurance in force |
$ | (5.0 | ) | $ | (4.3 | ) | ||
Direct primary insurance in force was $172.1 billion at March 31, 2005 compared to $177.1 billion at December 31, 2004 and $185.3 billion at March 31, 2004.
Cancellation activity has historically been affected by the level of mortgage interest rates and the level of home price appreciation. Cancellations generally move inversely to the change in the direction of interest rates, although they generally lag a change in direction. MGICs persistency rate (percentage of insurance remaining in force from one year prior) of 59.7% at March 31, 2005 decreased slightly from 60.2% at December 31, 2004 and increased from 51.0% at March 31, 2004. The Company expects modest improvement in the persistency rate for the remainder of 2005, although this expectation assumes the absence of significant declines in the level of mortgage interest rates from their level in late April 2005.
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Bulk transactions
The Companys writings of bulk insurance are in part sensitive to the volume of securitization transactions involving non-conforming loans. The Companys writings of bulk insurance are also sensitive to competition from other methods of providing credit enhancement in a securitization, including an execution in which the subordinate tranches in the securitization rather than mortgage insurance bear the first loss from mortgage defaults. Competition from such an execution in turn depends on, among other factors, the yield at which investors are willing to purchase tranches of the securitization that involve a higher degree of credit risk compared to the yield for tranches involving the lowest credit risk (the difference in such yields is referred to as the spread) and the amount of credit for losses that a rating agency will give to mortgage insurance, which may be affected by the agencys view of the outlook for the insurers claims-paying ability. As the spread narrows, competition from an execution in which the subordinate tranches bear the first loss increases. The competitiveness of the mortgage insurance execution in the bulk channel may also be impacted by changes in the Companys view of the risk of the business, which is affected by the historical performance of previously insured pools and the Companys expectations for regional and local real estate values. As a result of the sensitivities discussed above, bulk volume can vary materially from period to period.
The Company continued to face competition from other mortgage insurers which adversely affected the competitiveness of the mortgage insurance execution during the first quarter of 2005. As it has in past quarters, the Company priced the bulk business written in the first quarter of 2005 to generate acceptable returns; there can be no assurance, however, that the assumptions underlying the premium rates will achieve this objective.
NIW for bulk transactions increased from $2.1 billion during the first quarter of 2004 to $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2005, although NIW written through the bulk channel in the first quarter of 2005 was below the level of the second through fourth quarters of 2004 ($2.9 billion, $6.0 billion and $4.8 billion, respectively).
Pool insurance
In addition to providing primary insurance coverage, the Company also insures pools of mortgage loans. New pool risk written during the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004 was $48 million and $47 million, respectively. The Companys direct pool risk in force was $3.1 billion, $3.0 billion and $2.9 billion at March 31, 2005, December 31, 2004 and March 31, 2004, respectively. These risk amounts are contractual aggregate loss limits and for contracts without such limits, risk is calculated at the estimated amount that would credit enhance the loans in the pool to a AA level based on a rating agency model. At March 31, 2005 and 2004, there was $5.1 billion and $5.0 billion, respectively, of risk without such limits for which risk in force was calculated on this basis at $438 million and $367 million, respectively. During the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004, new risk written calculated on this basis was $20 million and $14 million, respectively.
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Net premiums written and earned
Net premiums written and earned during the first quarter of 2005 decreased due to a decline in the average insurance in force, when compared to the same period in 2004. The Company expects the average insurance in force during the remainder of 2005 will be lower than during the comparable period in 2004. As a result, the Company anticipates that net premiums written and earned in the remaining quarters of 2005 will be lower than the comparable periods in 2004.
Risk sharing arrangements
For the quarter ended December 31, 2004, approximately 48.5% of the Companys new insurance written on a flow basis was subject to captive reinsurance arrangements with subsidiaries of certain mortgage lenders or risk sharing arrangements with the GSEs compared to 51.2% for the quarter ended March 31, 2004. (New insurance written through the bulk channel is not subject to risk sharing arrangements.) The percentage of new insurance written during a period covered by such arrangements normally increases after the end of the period because, among other reasons, the transfer of a loan in the secondary market can result in a mortgage insured during a period becoming part of such an arrangement in a subsequent period. Therefore, the percentage of new insurance written covered by such arrangements is not shown for the current quarter. Premiums ceded in such arrangements are reported in the period in which they are ceded regardless of when the mortgage was insured. See also the second paragraph of The mortgage insurance industry is subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings under Risk Factors below.
Investment income
Investment income for the first quarter of 2005 increased due to an increase in the amortized cost of average invested assets to $5.5 billion for the first quarter of 2005 from $5.1 billion for the first quarter of 2004, as well as a slight increase in the average investment yield. The portfolios average pre-tax investment yield was 4.3% at March 31, 2005 and 4.2% at March 31, 2004. The portfolios average after-tax investment yield was 3.8% at March 31, 2005 and 3.7% at March 31, 2004. The Companys net realized gains in the first quarter of 2005 and 2004 resulted primarily from the sale of fixed maturities. As discussed in Note 1 New Accounting Standards, the impact of the final issuance of proposed FSP EITF 03-1-a cannot be determined at this time. Under the proposed guidance, it may be more likely that a decrease in the market value of certain investments in the Companys fixed income portfolio will be required to be recognized as a realized loss in the statement of operations than under the existing accounting standard.
Other revenue
The slight decrease in other revenue is primarily the result of decreased revenue from non-insurance operations.
Losses
As discussed in Critical Accounting Policies in Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in the Companys Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004, consistent with industry
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practices, loss reserves for future claims are established only for loans that are currently delinquent. (The terms delinquent and default are used interchangeably by the Company and are defined as an insured loan with a mortgage payment that is 45 days or more past due.) Loss reserves are established by managements estimating the number of loans in the Companys inventory of delinquent loans that will not cure their delinquency (historically, a substantial majority of delinquent loans have cured), which is referred to as the claim rate, and further estimating the amount that the Company will pay in claims on the loans that do not cure, which is referred to as claim severity. Estimation of losses that the Company will pay in the future is inherently judgmental. The conditions that affect the claim rate and claim severity include the current and future state of the domestic economy and the current and future strength of local housing markets.
Net losses incurred decreased in the first quarter of 2005 compared to the same period of 2004 due to a larger decrease in the delinquency inventory, as well as smaller increases in the estimates regarding how many delinquencies will eventually result in a claim and how much will be paid on claims. The average primary claim paid for the three months ended March 31, 2005 was $26,094 compared to $23,972 for the same period in 2004.
The Company believes that the level of losses incurred in the first quarter of 2005 was in part related to a normal seasonal reduction in delinquencies. The Company expects that incurred losses in the second quarter of 2005 will be above the level of the first quarter.
Information about the composition of the primary insurance default inventory at March 31, 2005, December 31, 2004 and March 31, 2004 appears in the table below.
March 31, | December 31, | March 31, | ||||||||||
2005 | 2004 | 2004 | ||||||||||
Total loans delinquent |
78,234 | 85,487 | 80,869 | |||||||||
Percentage of loans delinquent (default rate) |
5.71 | % | 6.05 | % | 5.34 | % | ||||||
Flow loans delinquent |
41,469 | 44,925 | 41,636 | |||||||||
Percentage of flow loans delinquent (default rate) |
3.77 | % | 3.99 | % | 3.52 | % | ||||||
Bulk loans delinquent |
36,765 | 40,562 | 39,233 | |||||||||
Percentage of bulk loans delinquent (default rate) |
13.59 | % | 14.06 | % | 11.85 | % | ||||||
A-minus and subprime credit loans delinquent* |
32,545 | 35,824 | 32,694 | |||||||||
Percentage of A-minus and subprime
credit loans delinquent (default rate) |
15.66 | % | 16.49 | % | 13.88 | % |
* | A portion of A-minus and subprime credit loans is included in flow loans delinquent and the remainder is included in bulk loans delinquent. Most A-minus and subprime credit loans are written through the bulk channel. A-minus loans have FICO credit scores of 575-619, as reported to MGIC at the time a commitment to insure is issued, and subprime loans have FICO credit scores of less than 575. |
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The pool notice inventory decreased from 25,500 at December 31, 2004 to 23,568 at March 31, 2005; the pool notice inventory was 26,427 at March 31, 2004.
Information about net losses paid in 2005 and 2004 appears in the table below.
Three months ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
Net paid claims ($ millions) | 2005 | 2004 | ||||||
Flow |
$ | 71 | $ | 68 | ||||
Bulk |
58 | 54 | ||||||
Pool and other |
20 | 20 | ||||||
$ | 149 | $ | 142 | |||||
As of March 31, 2005, 83% of the Companys primary insurance in force was written subsequent to December 31, 2001. On the Companys flow business, the highest claim frequency years have typically been the third through fifth year after the year of loan origination. However, the pattern of claims frequency can be affected by many factors, including low persistency (which can have the effect of accelerating the period in the life of a book during which the highest claim frequency occurs) and deteriorating economic conditions (which can result in increasing claims following a period of declining claims). The Company expects the period of highest claims frequency on bulk loans will occur earlier than in the historical pattern on the Companys flow business.
Underwriting and other expenses
Underwriting and other expenses in the first quarter of 2005 were comparable to the same period in 2004.
Consolidated ratios
The table below presents the Companys consolidated loss, expense and combined ratios for the periods indicated.
Three months ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
Consolidated Insurance Operations: | 2005 | 2004 | ||||||
Loss ratio |
31.3 | % | 55.8 | % | ||||
Expense ratio |
15.9 | % | 13.7 | % | ||||
Combined ratio |
47.2 | % | 69.5 | % | ||||
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The loss ratio (expressed as a percentage) is the ratio of the sum of incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses to net premiums earned. The expense ratio (expressed as a percentage) is the ratio of underwriting expenses to net premiums written. The combined ratio is the sum of the loss ratio and the expense ratio.
Income taxes
The effective tax rate was 28.8% in the first quarter of 2005, compared to 27.3% in the first quarter of 2004. During those periods, the effective tax rate was below the statutory rate of 35%, reflecting the benefits recognized from tax preferenced investments. Tax preferenced investments of the Company include tax-exempt municipal bonds, interests in mortgage related securities with flow through characteristics and investments in real estate ventures which generate low income housing credits. The higher effective tax rate in 2005 resulted from a lower percentage of total income before tax being generated from tax preferenced investments, which resulted from higher levels of underwriting income.
Joint ventures
The Companys equity in the earnings from the C-BASS and Sherman joint ventures with Radian Group Inc. and certain other joint ventures and investments, accounted for in accordance with the equity method of accounting, is shown separately, net of tax, on the Companys consolidated statement of operations. The increase in income from joint ventures from the first quarter of 2004 to the first quarter of 2005 is primarily the result of increased equity earnings from each of Sherman and C-BASS.
C-BASS
Summary C-BASS balance sheets and income statements at the dates and for the periods indicated appear below.
Summary Balance Sheet:
March 31, | December 31, | |||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
($ millions) | ||||||||
Total Assets |
$ | 3,618 | $ | 4,009 | ||||
Total Liabilities |
2,976 | 3,409 | ||||||
Debt* |
2,011 | 2,648 | ||||||
Owners Equity |
642 | 600 |
* | Most of which is scheduled to mature within one year or less. |
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Included in total assets and total liabilities at March 31, 2005 and December 31, 2004 are approximately $457 million of assets and the same amount of liabilities from securitizations that did not qualify for off-balance sheet treatment. The liabilities from these securitizations are not included in Debt in the table above.
Summary Income Statement:
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
($ millions) | ||||||||
Revenues |
$ | 147.3 | $ | 104.7 | ||||
Expenses |
86.7 | 59.2 | ||||||
Income before tax |
$ | 60.6 | $ | 45.5 | ||||
Companys share of pretax income |
$ | 28.0 | $ | 21.4 | ||||
The increased contribution from C-BASS in the first quarter of 2005 compared to the first quarter of 2004 was primarily due to an increase in gains from liquidation of mortgage loans, net hedging gains and higher net interest income. Gains on liquidation of whole loans reflects payoff of loans and mortgage insurance payments. C-BASS had net hedging gains on whole loans in the first quarter of 2005, compared to net hedging losses in the first quarter of 2004. Higher net interest income was the result of a higher average portfolio of mortgage loans and higher earnings rate on trust deposits for securities serviced by Litton.
The Companys investment in C-BASS on an equity basis at March 31, 2005 was $304.8 million. The Company received $8.5 million in distributions from C-BASS during the first quarter of 2005.
Sherman
Summary Sherman balance sheets and income statements at the dates and for the periods indicated appear below.
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Summary Balance Sheet:
March 31, | December 31, | |||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
($ millions) | ||||||||
Total Assets |
$ | 741 | $ | 484 | ||||
Total Liabilities |
568 | 245 | ||||||
Debt |
409 | 143 | ||||||
Members Equity |
173 | 239 |
In March 2005, Sherman acquired the holding company for First National Bank of Marin (Bank of Marin) for a payment of cash and subordinated notes. This acquisition materially increased Shermans consolidated assets as well as its debt and financial leverage. In 2004, the Bank of Marin was the 43rd largest credit card issuer in the United States, as measured by the amount of receivables generated. The Bank of Marins operations following the acquisition will consist of originating subprime credit cards the receivables from which will be sold to an affiliate of Sherman. The primary regulator of Bank of Marin is the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Under the Change in Bank Control Act and the regulations of the OCC, any person who acquires 25% or more of the Companys voting securities would be deemed to control the Bank of Marin (and, under certain circumstances, any person who acquires 10% or more of the Companys voting securities might be deemed to control the Bank of Marin) and would be required to seek the approval of the OCC prior to achieving such ownership threshold.
Summary Income Statement:
Three Months Ended | ||||||||
March 31, | ||||||||
2005 | 2004 | |||||||
($ millions) | ||||||||
Revenues from receivable portfolios |
$ | 218.1 | $ | 212.4 | ||||
Portfolio amortizaton |
69.5 | 113.4 | ||||||
Revenues, net of amortization |
148.6 | 99.0 | ||||||
Other revenue |
7.3 | 8.9 | ||||||
Expenses |
100.0 | 77.7 | ||||||
Income before tax |
$ | 55.9 | $ | 30.2 | ||||
Companys share of pretax income |
$ | 23.2 | $ | 12.6 | ||||
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The increased contribution from Sherman was primarily due to increased net revenue from portfolios owned during the 2004 and 2005 periods attributable to continuing collections and lower amortization on those portfolios. The Companys investment in Sherman on an equity basis at March 31, 2005 was $69.4 million, down from $97.0 million at December 31, 2004 due to a $51.9 million distribution received from Sherman in the first quarter of 2005.
Other Matters
Under the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversights (OFHEO) risk-based capital stress test for the GSEs, claim payments made by a private mortgage insurer on GSE loans are reduced below the amount provided by the mortgage insurance policy to reflect the risk that the insurer will fail to pay. Claim payments from an insurer whose claims-paying ability rating is AAA are subject to a 3.5% reduction over the 10-year period of the stress test, while claim payments from a AA rated insurer, such as MGIC, are subject to an 8.75% reduction. The effect of the differentiation among insurers is to require the GSEs to have additional capital for coverage on loans provided by a private mortgage insurer whose claims-paying rating is less than AAA. As a result, there is an incentive for the GSEs to use private mortgage insurance provided by a AAA rated insurer.
Financial Condition
The Company had $300 million, 7.5% Senior Notes due in October 2005 and $200 million, 6% Senior Notes due in 2007 outstanding at March 31, 2005 and December 31, 2004. The Company intends to refinance the $300 million of Senior Notes due in October through the issuance of senior debt. In March 2005, the Company obtained a bank commitment for a credit facility of $300 million expiring on the earlier of 364 days from the closing date of the facility or the repayment of the 7.5% Senior Notes. The Company intends to draw upon this facility to refinance these Senior Notes if they cannot otherwise be refinanced. At March 31, 2005 and 2004, the market value of the Companys outstanding debt was $667.3 million and $641.7 million, respectively.
See Results of OperationsJoint ventures above for information about the financial condition of C-BASS and Sherman.
As of March 31, 2005, 80% of the investment portfolio was invested in tax-preferenced securities. In addition, at March 31, 2005, based on book value, the Companys fixed income securities were approximately 99% invested in A rated and above, readily marketable securities, concentrated in maturities of less than 15 years.
At March 31, 2005, the Companys derivative financial instruments in its investment portfolio were immaterial. The Company places its investments in instruments that meet high credit quality standards, as specified in the Companys investment policy guidelines; the policy also limits the amount of credit exposure to any one issue, issuer and type of instrument. At March 31, 2005, the effective duration of the Companys fixed income investment portfolio was 5.6 years. This means that for an instantaneous
Page 27
parallel shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points there would be an approximate 5.6% change in the market value of the Companys fixed income portfolio.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
The Companys consolidated sources of funds consist primarily of premiums written and investment income. Positive cash flows are invested pending future payments of claims and other expenses. Management believes that future cash inflows from premiums will be sufficient to meet future claim payments. Cash flow shortfalls, if any, could be funded through sales of short-term investments and other investment portfolio securities subject to insurance regulatory requirements regarding the payment of dividends to the extent funds were required by other than the seller. Substantially all of the investment portfolio securities are held by the Companys insurance subsidiaries.
The Company has a $285 million commercial paper program, which is rated A-1 by Standard and Poors (S&P) and P-1 by Moodys. At March 31, 2005 and 2004, the Company had $155.5 million and $100.5 million in commercial paper outstanding with a weighted average interest rate of 2.85% and 1.10%, respectively.
In March of 2005, the Company obtained a $300 million, five year revolving credit facility, expiring in 2010. The facility replaced the previous $285 million facility that was set to expire in 2006. Under the terms of the credit facility, the Company must maintain shareholders equity of at least $2.25 billion and Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC) must maintain a risk-to-capital ratio of not more than 22:1 and maintain policyholders position (which includes MGICs statutory surplus and its contingency reserve) of not less than the amount required by Wisconsin insurance regulation. At March 31, 2005, the Company met these requirements. The facility will continue to be used as a liquidity back up facility for the outstanding commercial paper. The remaining credit available under the facility after reduction for the amount necessary to support the commercial paper was $144.5 million at March 31, 2005.
In March 2005, a swap designated as a cash flow hedge was amended to coincide with the new credit facility. Under the terms of the swap contract, the Company pays a fixed rate of 5.07% and receives an interest rate based on LIBOR. The swap has an expiration date coinciding with the maturity of the credit facility and is designated as a cash flow hedge. The cash flow swap outstanding at March 31, 2005 and 2004 is evaluated quarterly using regression analysis with any ineffectiveness being recorded as an expense. To date this evaluation has not resulted in any hedge ineffectiveness. Swaps are subject to credit risk to the extent the counterparty would be unable to discharge its obligations under the swap agreements.
Expense on the interest rate swaps for the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004 of approximately $0.5 million and $0.9 million, respectively, was included in interest expense. Gains or losses arising from the amendment or termination of interest rate swaps are deferred and amortized to interest expense over the life of the hedged items.
The commercial paper, back-up credit facility and the Senior Notes are obligations of the Company and not of its subsidiaries. The Company is a holding company and the
Page 28
payment of dividends from its insurance subsidiaries is restricted by insurance regulation. MGIC is the principal source of dividend-paying capacity. For the remainder of 2005 MGIC can pay up to $133 million in dividends at a quarterly rate of approximately $44 million without the approval of the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin.
During the first quarter of 2005, the Company repurchased 1.1 million shares of Common Stock under publicly announced programs at a cost of $68.6 million. At March 31, 2005, the Company had authority covering the purchase of an additional 3.5 million shares under these programs. In April 2005 the Company purchased an additional 1.8 million shares at a cost of $105.7 million, a portion of which is subject to adjustment. For additional information regarding stock repurchases during the first quarter of 2005, see Item 2(c) of Part II of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. From mid-1997 through March 31, 2005, the Company has repurchased 27.9 million shares under publicly announced programs at a cost of $1.5 billion. Funds for the shares repurchased by the Company since mid-1997 have been provided through a combination of debt, including the Senior Notes and the commercial paper, and internally generated funds.
The Companys principal exposure to loss is its obligation to pay claims under MGICs mortgage guaranty insurance policies. At March 31, 2005, MGICs direct (before any reinsurance) primary and pool risk in force (which is the unpaid principal balance of insured loans as reflected in the Companys records multiplied by the coverage percentage, and taking account of any loss limit) was approximately $52.4 billion. In addition, as part of its contract underwriting activities, the Company is responsible for the quality of its underwriting decisions in accordance with the terms of the contract underwriting agreements with customers. Through March 31, 2005, the cost of remedies provided by the Company to customers for failing to meet the standards of the contracts has not been material. However, the decreasing trend of home mortgage interest rates over the last several years may have mitigated the effect of some of these costs since the general effect of lower interest rates can be to increase the value of certain loans on which remedies are provided. There can be no assurance that contract underwriting remedies will not be material in the future.
The Companys consolidated risk-to-capital ratio was 7.5:1 at March 31, 2005 compared to 7.9:1 at December 31, 2004. The decrease was due to an increase in capital and a decrease in risk in force during the first three months of 2005.
The risk-to-capital ratios set forth above have been computed on a statutory basis. However, the methodology used by the rating agencies to assign claims-paying ability ratings permits less leverage than under statutory requirements. As a result, the amount of capital required under statutory regulations may be lower than the capital required for rating agency purposes. In addition to capital adequacy, the rating agencies consider other factors in determining a mortgage insurers claims-paying rating, including its historical and projected operating performance, business outlook, competitive position, management and corporate strategy.
Page 29
For certain material risks of the Companys business, see Risk Factors below.
Risk Factors
Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors:
The Companys revenues and losses could be affected by the risk factors discussed below that are applicable to the Company, and the Companys income from joint ventures could be affected by the risk factors discussed below that are applicable to C-BASS and Sherman. These risk factors are an integral part of Managements Discussion and Analysis.
These risk factors may also cause actual results to differ materially from the results contemplated by forward looking statements that the Company may make. Forward looking statements consist of statements which relate to matters other than historical fact. Among others, statements that include words such as the Company believes, anticipates or expects, or words of similar import, are forward looking statements. The Company is not undertaking any obligation to update any forward looking statements it may make.
The amount of insurance the Company writes could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance.
These alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:
| lenders structuring mortgage originations to avoid private mortgage insurance, such as a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a second mortgage with a 10%, 15% or 20% loan-to-value ratio (referred to as 80-10-10, 80-15-5 or 80-20 loans, respectively) rather than a first mortgage with a 90%, 95% or 100% loan-to-value ratio, | |||
| investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring, | |||
| investors using credit enhancements other than private mortgage insurance or using other credit enhancements in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance coverage, and | |||
| lenders using government mortgage insurance programs, including those of the Federal Housing Administration and the Veterans Administration. |
While no data is publicly available, the Company believes that 80-10-10 loans and related products are a significant percentage of mortgage originations in which borrowers make down payments of less than 20% and that their use, which the Company believes is primarily by borrowers with higher credit scores, continues to increase. During the fourth quarter of 2004, the Company introduced on a national basis a program designed to recapture business lost to these mortgage insurance avoidance products but there can be no assurance that it will be successful.
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Deterioration in the domestic economy or changes in the mix of business may result in more homeowners defaulting and the Companys losses increasing.
Losses result from events that reduce a borrowers ability to continue to make mortgage payments, such as unemployment, and whether the home of a borrower who defaults on his mortgage can be sold for an amount that will cover unpaid principal and interest and the expenses of the sale. Favorable economic conditions generally reduce the likelihood that borrowers will lack sufficient income to pay their mortgages and also favorably affect the value of homes, thereby reducing and in some cases even eliminating a loss from a mortgage default. A deterioration in economic conditions generally increases the likelihood that borrowers will not have sufficient income to pay their mortgages and can also adversely affect housing values.
The mix of business the Company writes also affects the likelihood of losses occurring. In recent years, the percentage of the Companys volume written on a flow basis that includes segments the Company views as having a higher probability of claim has continued to increase. These segments include loans with LTV ratios over 95% (including loans with 100% LTV ratios), FICO credit scores below 620, limited underwriting, including limited borrower documentation, or total debt-to-income ratios of 38% or higher, as well as loans having combinations of higher risk factors.
Approximately 8% of the Companys risk in force written through the flow channel, and more than half of the Companys risk in force written through the bulk channel, consists of ARMs. The Company believes that during a prolonged period of rising interest rates, claims on ARMs would be substantially higher than for fixed rate loans, although the performance of ARMs has not been tested in such an environment. In addition, the Company believes the volume of interest-only loans has recently increased. Because interest-only loans are a relatively recent development, the Company has no data on their historical performance. The Company believes claim rates on certain interest-only loans will be substantially higher than on comparable loans requiring amortization. Interest-only loans may also be ARMs.
Competition or changes in the Companys relationships with its customers could reduce the Companys revenues or increase its losses.
Competition for private mortgage insurance premiums occurs not only among private mortgage insurers but also with mortgage lenders through captive mortgage reinsurance transactions. In these transactions, a lenders affiliate reinsures a portion of the insurance written by a private mortgage insurer on mortgages originated or serviced by the lender. As discussed under The mortgage insurance industry is subject to risk from private litigation and regulatory proceedings below, it has been publicly reported that certain insurance departments may review or investigate captive mortgage insurance arrangements.
The level of competition within the private mortgage insurance industry has also increased as many large mortgage lenders have reduced the number of private mortgage insurers with whom they do business. At the same time, consolidation among mortgage lenders has increased the share of the mortgage lending market held by large lenders.
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The Companys private mortgage insurance competitors include:
| PMI Mortgage Insurance Company | |||
| GE Capital Mortgage Insurance Corporation | |||
| United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company | |||
| Radian Guaranty Inc. | |||
| Republic Mortgage Insurance Company | |||
| Triad Guaranty Insurance Corporation | |||
| CMG Mortgage Insurance Company |
Assured Guaranty Limited f/k/a/ AGC Holdings Limited, a financial guaranty company whose mortgage insurance business is primarily reinsurance, has announced that it intends to write investment grade mortgage guaranty insurance on a direct basis.
If interest rates decline, house prices appreciate or mortgage insurance cancellation requirements change, the length of time that the Companys policies remain in force could decline and result in declines in the Companys revenue.
In each year, most of the Companys premiums are from insurance that has been written in prior years. As a result, the length of time insurance remains in force (which is also generally referred to as persistency) is an important determinant of revenues. The factors affecting the length of time the Companys insurance remains in force include:
| the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates on the insurance in force, which affects the vulnerability of the insurance in force to refinancings, and |
| mortgage insurance cancellation policies of mortgage investors along with the rate of home price appreciation experienced by the homes underlying the mortgages in the insurance in force. |
During the 1990s, the Companys year-end persistency ranged from a high of 87.4% at December 31, 1990 to a low of 68.1% at December 31, 1998. At March 31, 2005 persistency was at 59.7%, compared to the record low of 44.9% at September 30, 2003. Over the past several years, refinancing has become easier to accomplish and less costly for many consumers. Hence, even in an interest rate environment favorable to persistency improvement, the Company does not expect persistency will approach its December 31, 1990 level.
If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that the Company writes could decline which would reduce the Companys revenues.
The factors that affect the volume of low-down-payment mortgage originations include:
| The level of home mortgage interest rates, |
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| the health of the domestic economy as well as conditions in regional and local economies, | |||
| housing affordability, | |||
| population trends, including the rate of household formation, | |||
| the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing can affect whether refinance loans have loan-to-value ratios that require private mortgage insurance, and | |||
| government housing policy encouraging loans to first-time homebuyers. |
In general, the majority of the underwriting profit (premium revenue minus losses) that a book of mortgage insurance generates occurs in the early years of the book, with the largest portion of the underwriting profit realized in the first year. Subsequent years of a book generally result in modest underwriting profit or underwriting losses. This pattern of results occurs because relatively few of the claims that a book will ultimately experience occur in the first few years of the book, when premium revenue is highest, while subsequent years are affected by declining premium revenues, as persistency decreases due to loan prepayments, and higher losses.
If all other things were equal, a decline in new insurance written in a year that followed a number of years of higher volume could result in a lower contribution to the mortgage insurers overall results. This effect may occur because the older books will be experiencing declines in revenue and increases in losses with a lower amount of underwriting profit on the new book available to offset these results.
Whether such a lower contribution would in fact occur depends in part on the extent of the volume decline. Even with a substantial decline in volume, there may be offsetting factors that could increase the contribution in the current year. These offsetting factors include higher persistency and a mix of business with higher average premiums, which could have the effect of increasing revenues, and improvements in the economy, which could have the effect of reducing losses. In addition, the effect on the insurers overall results from such a lower contribution may be offset by decreases in the mortgage insurers expenses that are unrelated to claim or default activity, including those related to lower volume.
Changes in the business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could reduce the Companys revenues or increase its losses.
The business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac affect the entire relationship between them and mortgage insurers and include:
| the level of private mortgage insurance coverage, subject to the limitations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs charters, when private mortgage insurance is used as the required credit enhancement on low down payment mortgages, |
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| whether Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac influence the mortgage lenders selection of the mortgage insurer providing coverage and, if so, any transactions that are related to that selection, | |||
| whether Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will give mortgage lenders an incentive, such as a reduced guaranty fee, to select a mortgage insurer that has a AAA claims-paying ability, | |||
| rating to benefit from the lower capital requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac when a mortgage is insured by a company with that rating, | |||
| the underwriting standards that determine what loans are eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which thereby affect the quality of the risk insured by the mortgage insurer and the availability of mortgage loans, | |||
| the terms on which mortgage insurance coverage can be canceled before reaching the cancellation thresholds established by law, and | |||
| the circumstances in which mortgage servicers must perform activities intended to avoid or mitigate loss on insured mortgages that are delinquent. |
The mortgage insurance industry is subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings.
Consumers are bringing a growing number of lawsuits against home mortgage lenders and settlement service providers. In recent years, seven mortgage insurers, including the Companys MGIC subsidiary, have been involved in litigation alleging violations of the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, which is commonly known as RESPA, and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which is commonly known as FCRA. MGICs settlement of class action litigation against it under RESPA became final in October 2003. MGIC settled the named plaintiffs claims in litigation against it under FCRA in late December 2004 following denial of class certification in June 2004. There can be no assurance that MGIC will not be subject to future litigation under RESPA or FCRA.
Spokesmen for insurance commissioners in Colorado and North Carolina have been publicly reported as saying that those commissioners are considering investigating or reviewing captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements. Insurance departments or other officials in other states may also conduct such investigations or reviews. The anti-referral fee provisions of RESPA provide that HUD as well as the insurance commissioner or attorney general of any state may bring an action to enjoin violations of these provisions of RESPA. The insurance law provisions of many states prohibit paying for the referral of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to enforce this prohibition. While the Company believes its captive reinsurance arrangements are in conformity with applicable laws and regulations, it is not possible to predict the outcome of any such reviews or investigations nor is it possible to predict their effect on the Company or the mortgage insurance industry.
Net premiums written could be adversely affected if the Department of Housing and Urban Development reproposes and adopts a regulation under the Real Estate
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Settlement Procedures Act that is equivalent to a proposed regulation that was withdrawn in 2004.
The regulations of the Department of Housing and Urban Development under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act prohibit paying lenders for the referral of settlement services, including mortgage insurance, and prohibit lenders from receiving such payments. In July 2002, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed a regulation that would exclude from these anti-referral fee provisions settlement services included in a package of settlement services offered to a borrower at a guaranteed price. HUD withdrew this proposed regulation in March 2004. Under the proposed regulation, if mortgage insurance were required on a loan, the package must include any mortgage insurance premium paid at settlement. Although certain state insurance regulations prohibit an insurers payment of referral fees, had this regulation been adopted in this form, the Companys revenues could have been adversely affected to the extent that lenders offered such packages and received value from the Company in excess of what they could have received were the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act to apply and if such state regulations were not applied to prohibit such payments.
The Companys income from joint ventures could be adversely affected by credit losses, insufficient liquidity or competition affecting the business of C-BASS or Sherman.
C-BASS: C-BASS is particularly exposed to credit risk and funding risk. In addition, C-BASSs results are sensitive to its ability to purchase mortgage loans and securities on terms that it projects will meets its return targets.
With respect to credit risk, an increasing proportion of non-conforming mortgage originations (the types of mortgages C-BASS principally purchases), are products, such as interest only loans to subprime borrowers, that are viewed by C-BASS as having greater credit risk. In addition, credit losses are a function of housing prices, which in certain regions have experienced rates of increase greater than historical norms and greater than growth in median incomes.
With respect to liquidity, the substantial majority of C-BASSs on-balance sheet financing for its mortgage and securities portfolio is short-term and dependent on the value of the collateral that secures this debt. While C-BASSs policies governing the management of capital at risk are intended to provide sufficient liquidity to cover an instantaneous and substantial decline in value, such policies cannot guaranty that all liquidity required will in fact be available.
Although there has been growth in the volume of non-conforming mortgage originations in recent years, such growth may not continue if interest rates increase or the economy weakens. There is an increasing amount of competition to purchase non-conforming mortgages, including from newly established real estate investment trusts and from firms that in the past acted as mortgage securities intermediaries but which are now establishing their own captive origination capacity. The continuing decrease in credit spreads has also heightened competition in the purchase of non-conforming mortgages and other securities.
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Sherman: Shermans results are sensitive to its ability to purchase receivable portfolios on terms that it projects will meets its return targets. While the volume of charged-off consumer receivables and the portion of these receivables that have been sold to third parties such as Sherman has grown in recent years, there is an increasing amount of competition to purchase such portfolios, including from new entrants to the industry, which has resulted in increases in the prices at which portfolios can be purchased.
The March 2005 acquisition of Bank of Marin is intended to provide Sherman with the capability to originate subprime credit card receivables. This acquisition has materially increased Shermans assets as well as its debt and its financial leverage. There can be no assurance that the benefits projected from the acquisition by Sherman will be achieved.
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
At March 31, 2005, the Companys derivative financial instruments in its investment portfolio were immaterial. The Company places its investments in instruments that meet investment grade credit quality standards, as specified in the Companys investment policy guidelines; the policy also limits the amount of credit exposure to any one issue, issuer and type of instrument. At March 31, 2005, the effective duration of the Companys fixed income investment portfolio was 5.6 years. This means that for each instantaneous parallel shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points there would be an approximate 5.6% change in the market value of the Companys fixed income investment portfolio.
The Companys borrowings under its commercial paper program are subject to interest rates that are variable. See the fourth and fifth paragraphs under Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Liquidity and Capital Resources for a discussion of the Companys interest rate swaps.
ITEM 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES
The Companys management, with the participation of the Companys principal executive officer and principal financial officer, has evaluated the Companys disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rule 13a-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended), as of the end of the period covered by this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. Based on such evaluation, the Companys principal executive officer and principal financial officer concluded that such controls and procedures were effective as of the end of such period. There was no change in the Companys internal control over financial reporting that occurred during the first quarter of 2005 that materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, the Companys internal control over financial reporting.
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PART II. OTHER INFORMATION
ITEM 2. CHANGES IN SECURITIES, USE OF PROCEEDS AND ISSUER PURCHASES OF EQUITY SECURITIES
(c) Repurchase of common stock:
Information about shares of Common Stock repurchased during the first quarter of 2005 appears in the table below.
(d) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(c) | Maximum | |||||||||||||||||||||
Total Number of | Number of | |||||||||||||||||||||
Shares | Shares that | |||||||||||||||||||||
Purchased as | May Yet Be | |||||||||||||||||||||
(a) | Part of Publicly | Purchased | ||||||||||||||||||||
Total Number of | (b) | Announced | Under the Plans | |||||||||||||||||||
Shares | Average Price | Plans or | or Programs | |||||||||||||||||||
Period | Purchased | Paid per Share | Programs | (A) | ||||||||||||||||||
January 1, 2005
through
January 31, 2005 |
199,531 | (B) | $ | 64.05 | 175,000 | 4,382,700 | ||||||||||||||||
February 1, 2005
through February
28, 2005 |
600,000 | $ | 62.25 | 600,000 | 3,782,700 | |||||||||||||||||
March 1, 2005
through March
31,2005 |
325,100 | $ | 61.55 | 325,100 | 3,457,600 | |||||||||||||||||
Total |
1,124,631 | (B) | $ | 62.37 | 1,100,100 | 3,457,600 | ||||||||||||||||
(A) | On May 8, 2003 the Company announced that its Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to five million shares of the Companys Common Stock in the open market or in private transactions. | |
(B) | 24,531 of the shares purchased in January 2005 were purchased as part of stock option exercises by Company employees. |
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securities might be deemed to control the Bank of Marin) and would be required to seek the approval of the OCC prior to achieving such ownership threshold.
ITEM 6. EXHIBITS
The accompanying Index to Exhibits is incorporated by reference in answer to this portion of this Item, and except as otherwise indicated in the next sentence, the Exhibits listed in such Index are filed as part of this Form 10-Q. Exhibit 32 is not filed as part of this Form 10-Q but accompanies this Form 10-Q.
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SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized, on May 10, 2005.
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION | ||||
/s/ J. Michael Lauer | ||||
J. Michael Lauer | ||||
Executive Vice President and | ||||
Chief Financial Officer | ||||
/s/ Joseph J. Komanecki | ||||
Joseph J. Komanecki | ||||
Senior Vice President, Controller and | ||||
Chief Accounting Officer |
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INDEX TO EXHIBITS
(Part II, Item 6)
Exhibit | ||
Number | Description of Exhibit | |
4.1
|
Bridge Credit Agreement, dated as of March 31, 2005, among MGIC Investment Corporation and the several financial institutions from time to time party to such Agreement. | |
4.2
|
Five-Year Credit Agreement, dated as of March 31, 2005, among MGIC Investment Corporation and the several financial institutions from time to time party to such Agreement. | |
11
|
Statement Re Computation of Net Income Per Share | |
31.1
|
Certification of CEO under Section 302 of Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 | |
31.2
|
Certification of CFO under Section 302 of Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 | |
32
|
Certification of CEO and CFO under Section 906 of Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (as indicated in Item 6 of Part II, this Exhibit is not being filed). |