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UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q

x

QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

 

 

 

For the Quarterly Period Ended September 30, 2002

 

 

o

TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

 

 

 

Commission File Number: 1-10777

 

 

Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)

 

Delaware

 

13-3621676

(State of incorporation)

 

(I.R.S. employer identification no.)

 

 

 

One State Street Plaza
New York, New York

 

10004

(Address of principal executive offices)

 

(Zip code)

 

 

 

(212) 668-0340

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

            Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant: (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the Registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.

Yes

x

No

o

            As of October 31, 2002, 105,977,949 shares of Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share, (net of 233,518 treasury shares) of the Registrant were outstanding.



Table of Contents


Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

INDEX

 

 

PAGE

 

 


PART I

FINANCIAL INFORMATION

 

 

 

 

Item 1.

Financial Statements of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated Balance Sheets – September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001

3

 

 

 

 

Consolidated Statements of Operations – three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001

4

 

 

 

 

Consolidated Statements of Stockholders’ Equity – nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001

5

 

 

 

 

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows – nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001

6

 

 

 

 

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements

7

 

 

 

Item 2.

Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

11

 

 

 

Item 3.

Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

26

 

 

 

Item 4.

Controls and Procedures

27

 

 

 

PART II

OTHER INFORMATION

 

 

 

 

Item 6.

Exhibits and Reports on Form 8-K

28

 

 

SIGNATURES

29

 

 

CERTIFICATIONS

30

 

 

INDEX TO EXHIBITS

32

2


Table of Contents


PART I - FINANCIAL INFORMATION
Item 1 - Financial Statements of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Balance Sheets
September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001
(Dollars in Thousands)

 

 

September 30, 2002

 

December 31, 2001

 

 

 


 


 

 

 

(unaudited)

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investments:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed income securities, at fair value (amortized cost of $10,163,780 in 2002 and $8,355,596 in 2001)

 

$

10,710,694

 

$

8,469,157

 

 

Fixed income  securities pledged as collateral, at fair value (amortized cost of $809,274 in 2002 and $1,393,193 in 2001)

 

 

815,742

 

 

1,401,528

 

 

Short-term investments, at cost (approximates fair value)

 

 

137,369

 

 

415,002

 

 

Other

 

 

2,159

 

 

2,163

 

 

 



 



 

 

Total investments

 

 

11,665,964

 

 

10,287,850

 

Cash

 

 

32,342

 

 

76,580

 

Securities purchased under agreements to resell

 

 

24,504

 

 

11,200

 

Receivable for investment agreements

 

 

21,369

 

 

4,101

 

Receivable for securities sold

 

 

508,156

 

 

8,922

 

Investment income due and accrued

 

 

127,961

 

 

144,463

 

Reinsurance recoverable

 

 

2,195

 

 

2,259

 

Prepaid reinsurance

 

 

273,931

 

 

267,655

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

 

172,718

 

 

163,477

 

Loans

 

 

848,399

 

 

901,194

 

Derivative product assets

 

 

961,250

 

 

383,959

 

Other assets

 

 

49,290

 

 

100,460

 

 

 



 



 

 

Total assets

 

$

14,688,079

 

$

12,352,120

 

 

 



 



 

Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premiums

 

$

1,926,789

 

$

1,780,272

 

 

Losses and loss adjustment expense reserve

 

 

167,045

 

 

152,352

 

 

Ceded reinsurance balances payable

 

 

11,248

 

 

10,146

 

 

Obligations under investment and payment agreements

 

 

5,246,902

 

 

4,089,777

 

 

Obligations under investment repurchase agreements

 

 

1,085,946

 

 

1,422,151

 

 

Securities sold under agreement to repurchase

 

 

460,495

 

 

425,000

 

 

Deferred income taxes

 

 

270,930

 

 

123,077

 

 

Current income taxes

 

 

36,675

 

 

98,145

 

 

Debentures

 

 

612,717

 

 

619,315

 

 

Accrued interest payable

 

 

70,278

 

 

84,225

 

 

Derivative product assets

 

 

799,719

 

 

325,922

 

 

Other liabilities

 

 

138,175

 

 

175,135

 

 

Payable for securities purchased

 

 

241,036

 

 

62,915

 

 

 



 



 

 

Total liabilities

 

 

11,067,955

 

 

9,368,432

 

 

 



 



 

Stockholders’ equity:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Preferred stock

 

 

—  

 

 

—  

 

 

Common stock

 

 

1,062

 

 

1,060

 

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

 

548,823

 

 

538,135

 

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

 

319,793

 

 

62,476

 

 

Retained earnings

 

 

2,772,509

 

 

2,403,473

 

 

Common stock held in treasury at cost

 

 

(22,063

)

 

(21,456

)

 

 



 



 

 

Total stockholders’ equity

 

 

3,620,124

 

 

2,983,688

 

 

 

 



 



 

 

Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity

 

$

14,688,079

 

$

12,352,120

 

 

 



 



 

See accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements

3


Table of Contents

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Operations
(Unaudited)
For the Periods Ended September 30, 2002 and 2001
(Dollars in Thousands Except Share Data)

 

 

Three Months Ended
September 30,

 

Nine Months Ended
September 30,

 

 

 


 


 

 

 

2002

 

2001

 

2002

 

2001

 

 

 


 


 


 


 

Revenues:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guarantee:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

205,110

 

$

152,918

 

$

550,154

 

$

499,253

 

 

Ceded premiums written

 

 

(26,854

)

 

(35,874

)

 

(71,108

)

 

(72,342

)

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Net premiums written

 

$

178,256

 

$

117,044

 

$

479,046

 

$

426,911

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Net premiums earned

 

$

122,396

 

$

98,019

 

$

339,680

 

$

276,547

 

 

Other credit enhancement fees

 

 

7,307

 

 

5,876

 

 

20,171

 

 

15,524

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Net premiums earned and other credit enhancement fees

 

 

129,703

 

 

103,895

 

 

359,851

 

 

292,071

 

 

Net investment income

 

 

75,895

 

 

67,318

 

 

222,035

 

 

196,852

 

 

Net securities (losses) gains

 

 

(1,500

)

 

3,578

 

 

(10,581

)

 

(10

)

 

Other income

 

 

472

 

 

502

 

 

2,586

 

 

3,918

 

 

Financial Services:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

13,582

 

 

10,231

 

 

41,139

 

 

36,457

 

 

Net securities gains (losses)

 

 

1,402

 

 

(3,589

)

 

2,168

 

 

(3,151

)

 

Other:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

974

 

 

786

 

 

2,659

 

 

3,093

 

 

Net securities losses

 

 

(127

)

 

(1,383

)

 

(571

)

 

(1,383

)

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total revenues

 

 

220,401

 

 

181,338

 

 

619,286

 

 

527,847

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guarantee:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

 

6,100

 

 

5,100

 

 

17,700

 

 

14,500

 

 

Underwriting and operating expenses

 

 

18,467

 

 

16,602

 

 

55,631

 

 

50,671

 

 

Financial Services

 

 

5,380

 

 

5,023

 

 

16,215

 

 

16,627

 

 

Interest

 

 

10,774

 

 

9,370

 

 

32,256

 

 

28,338

 

 

Other

 

 

1,884

 

 

921

 

 

5,365

 

 

4,372

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total expenses

 

 

42,605

 

 

37,016

 

 

127,167

 

 

114,508

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Income before income taxes

 

 

177,796

 

 

144,322

 

 

492,119

 

 

413,339

 

Provision for income taxes

 

 

46,105

 

 

33,314

 

 

123,715

 

 

97,179

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Net income

 

$

131,691

 

$

111,008

 

$

368,404

 

$

316,160

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Net income per share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic

 

$

1.24

 

$

1.05

 

$

3.48

 

$

2.99

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Diluted

 

$

1.21

 

$

1.02

 

$

3.38

 

$

2.90

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Weighted average number of common shares outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic

 

 

105,865,884

 

 

105,781,745

 

 

105,940,661

 

 

105,753,654

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Diluted

 

 

108,959,876

 

 

109,077,058

 

 

109,148,469

 

 

108,980,936

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

See accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements

4


Table of Contents

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Stockholders’ Equity
(Unaudited)
For The Nine Months Ended September 30, 2002 and 2001
(Dollars in Thousands)

 

 

2002

 

2001

 

 

 


 


 

Retained Earnings:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance at January 1

 

$

2,403,473

 

 

 

 

$

2,035,209

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

 

368,404

 

$

368,404

 

 

316,160

 

$

316,160

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

Dividends declared - common stock

 

 

(29,654

)

 

 

 

 

(26,439

)

 

 

 

 

Exercise of stock options

 

 

30,286

 

 

 

 

 

(21,617

)

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

Balance at September 30

 

$

2,772,509

 

 

 

 

$

2,303,313

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance at January 1

 

$

62,476

 

 

 

 

$

45,154

 

 

 

 

 

Unrealized gains on securities, $421,900 and $148,148, pre-tax in 2002 and 2001, respectively(1)

 

 

 

 

 

268,014

 

 

 

 

 

93,021

 

 

Cumulative effect of accounting change

 

 

 

 

 

—  

 

 

 

 

 

(880

)

 

Loss on derivative hedges

 

 

 

 

 

(12,330

)

 

 

 

 

(377

)

 

Foreign currency translation gain (loss)

 

 

 

 

 

1,633

 

 

 

 

 

(267

)

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

Other comprehensive income

 

 

257,317

 

 

257,317

 

 

91,497

 

 

91,497

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Comprehensive income

 

 

 

 

$

625,721

 

 

 

 

$

407,657

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

Balance at September 30

 

$

319,793

 

 

 

 

$

136,651

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

Preferred Stock:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance at January 1 and September 30

 

$

—  

 

 

 

 

$

—  

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

Common Stock:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance at January 1

 

$

1,060

 

 

 

 

$

1,060

 

 

 

 

 

Issuance of stock

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

—  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

Balance at September 30

 

$

1,062

 

 

 

 

$

1,060

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

Additional Paid-in Capital:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance at January 1

 

$

538,135

 

 

 

 

$

533,558

 

 

 

 

 

Exercise of stock options

 

 

13,371

 

 

 

 

 

10,961

 

 

 

 

 

Issuance of stock

 

 

4,286

 

 

 

 

 

—  

 

 

 

 

 

Capital issuance costs

 

 

(6,969

)

 

 

 

 

—  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

Balance at September 30

 

$

548,823

 

 

 

 

$

544,519

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

Common Stock Held in Treasury at Cost:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance at January 1

 

$

(21,456

)

 

 

 

$

(18,867

)

 

 

 

 

Cost of shares acquired

 

 

(38,654

)

 

 

 

 

(35,855

)

 

 

 

 

Shares issued under equity plans

 

 

38,047

 

 

 

 

 

33,121

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

Balance at September 30

 

$

(22,063

)

 

 

 

$

(21,601

)

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

Total Stockholders’ Equity at September 30

 

$

3,620,124

 

 

 

 

$

2,963,942

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

(1) Disclosure of reclassification amount:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unrealized holding gains arising during period

 

$

273,288

 

 

 

 

$

94,505

 

 

 

 

Less: reclassification adjustment for net gains included in net income

 

 

5,274

 

 

 

 

 

1,484

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

Net unrealized gains on securities

 

$

268,014

 

 

 

 

$

93,021

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

See accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

5


Table of Contents

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
(Unaudited)
For The Nine Months Ended September 30, 2002 and 2001
(Dollars in Thousands)

 

 

2002

 

2001

 

 

 


 


 

Cash flows from operating activities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

368,404

 

$

316,160

 

 

Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depreciation and amortization

 

 

2,608

 

 

2,630

 

 

Amortization of bond premium and discount

 

 

3,891

 

 

(14,065

)

 

Current income taxes

 

 

(61,470

)

 

34,578

 

 

Deferred income taxes

 

 

2,186

 

 

6,859

 

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

 

(9,241

)

 

(7,341

)

 

Unearned premiums, net

 

 

140,241

 

 

150,393

 

 

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

 

14,757

 

 

13,340

 

 

Ceded reinsurance balances payable

 

 

1,102

 

 

9,267

 

 

Investment income due and accrued

 

 

16,502

 

 

11,236

 

 

Accrued interest payable

 

 

(13,947

)

 

(15,295

)

 

Net securities losses

 

 

8,984

 

 

4,544

 

 

Other, net

 

 

7,979

 

 

(4,814

)

 

 

 



 



 

 

Net cash provided by operating activities

 

 

481,996

 

 

507,492

 

 

 

 



 



 

Cash flows from investing activities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proceeds from sales of bonds

 

 

1,525,160

 

 

985,901

 

 

Proceeds from matured bonds

 

 

1,586,991

 

 

1,874,727

 

 

Purchases of bonds

 

 

(4,599,837

)

 

(3,418,853

)

 

Change in short-term investments

 

 

277,633

 

 

68,710

 

 

Securities purchased under agreements to resell

 

 

(13,304

)

 

(105,314

)

 

Securities sold under agreements to repurchase

 

 

(14,366

)

 

—  

 

 

Loans

 

 

52,795

 

 

(25,076

)

 

Other, net

 

 

(29,110

)

 

(11,264

)

 

 



 



 

 

Net cash used in investing activities

 

 

(1,214,038

)

 

(631,169

)

 

 



 



 

Cash flows from financing activities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dividends paid

 

 

(29,654

)

 

(26,439

)

 

Proceeds from issuance of investment agreements

 

 

2,105,362

 

 

2,045,119

 

 

Payments for investment agreement draws

 

 

(1,378,861

)

 

(1,820,596

)

 

Payment agreements

 

 

(5,755

)

 

1,826

 

 

Payment for buyback of debentures

 

 

—  

 

 

(7,500

)

 

Capital issuance costs

 

 

(6,969

)

 

—  

 

 

Issuance of common stock

 

 

4,288

 

 

—  

 

 

Proceeds from sale of treasury stock

 

 

38,047

 

 

33,121

 

 

Purchases of treasury stock

 

 

(38,654

)

 

(35,855

)

 

 



 



 

 

Net cash provided by financing activities

 

 

687,804

 

 

189,676

 

 

 



 



 

Net cash flow

 

 

(44,238

)

 

65,999

 

Cash and cash pledged as collateral at January 1

 

 

76,580

 

 

45,428

 

 

 



 



 

 

Cash and cash pledged as collateral at September 30

 

$

32,342

 

$

111,427

 

 

 



 



 

Supplemental disclosures of cash flow information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash paid during the period for:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income taxes

 

$

122,500

 

$

45,000

 

 

 

 



 



 

 

Interest expense on debt

 

$

38,407

 

$

30,575

 

 

 

 



 



 

 

Interest expense on investment agreements

 

$

164,261

 

$

170,601

 

 

 



 



 

See accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements

6


Table of Contents

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements
(Dollars in thousands)

(1)       Basis of Presentation

            Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Ambac provides financial guarantees for public finance and structured finance obligations through its principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation. Through its financial services subsidiaries, Ambac provides financial and investment products including investment agreements, interest rate, currency and total return swaps, funding conduits, investment advisory and cash management services, principally to its clients which include municipalities and other public entities, school districts, healthcare organizations and asset-backed issuers.

            Ambac Assurance has earned triple-A ratings, the highest ratings available from Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Fitch, Inc. and Rating and Investment Information, Inc. These ratings are an essential part of Ambac Assurance’s ability to provide financial guarantees.

            Ambac’s consolidated unaudited interim financial statements have been prepared on the basis of accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”) and, in the opinion of management, reflect all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring adjustments, necessary for a fair presentation of Ambac’s financial condition, results of operations and cash flows for the periods presented. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates. The results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 may not be indicative of the results that may be expected for the full year ending December 31, 2002. These consolidated financial statements and notes should be read in conjunction with the financial statements and notes included in the consolidated financial statements of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries contained in (i) Ambac’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2001, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 26, 2002, (ii) Ambac’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2002, which was filed with the SEC on May 13, 2002, and (iii) Ambac’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2002, which was filed with the SEC on August 14, 2002.

            The consolidated financial statements include the accounts of Ambac and each of its subsidiaries. All significant intercompany balances have been eliminated.

            Certain reclassifications have been made to prior period’s amounts to conform to the current period’s presentation.

7


Table of Contents

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued)
(Dollars in thousands)

(2)       Segment Information

            Ambac has two reportable segments, as follows: (1) financial guarantee, which provides financial guarantee products (including structured credit derivatives) for public finance and structured finance obligations; and (2) financial services, which provides investment agreements, interest rate swaps, total return swaps, funding conduits, and investment advisory and cash management services. Ambac’s reportable segments are strategic business units that offer different products and services. They are managed separately because each business requires different marketing strategies, personnel skill sets and technology.

            Pursuant to insurance and indemnity agreements, Ambac Assurance guarantees the swap and investment agreement obligations of those financial services subsidiaries. Intersegment revenues include the premiums earned under those agreements, but which are eliminated in the consolidated financial statements. Such premiums are accounted for as if they were premiums to third parties, that is, at current market prices.

            Information provided below for “Corporate and Other” relates to Ambac Financial Group, Inc. corporate activities. Corporate and other revenue from unaffiliated customers consists primarily of interest income. Intersegment revenues consist of dividends received.

            The following tables summarize the financial information by reportable segment as of and for the three and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2002 and 2001:

Three months ended September 30,

 

Financial
Guarantee

 

Financial
Services

 

Corporate
And Other

 

Intersegment
Eliminations

 

Consolidated

 


 


 


 


 


 


 

2002:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffiliated customers

 

$

204,570

 

$

14,984

 

$

847

 

$

—  

 

$

220,401

 

 

Intersegment

 

 

1,795

 

 

(1,438

)

 

19,500

 

 

(19,857

)

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total revenues

 

$

206,365

 

$

13,546

 

$

20,347

 

$

(19,857

)

$

220,401

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Income before income taxes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffiliated customers

 

$

180,003

 

$

9,604

 

$

(11,811

)

$

—  

 

$

177,796

 

 

Intersegment

 

 

2,029

 

 

(155

)

 

19,173

 

 

(21,047

)

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total income before income taxes

 

$

182,032

 

$

9,449

 

$

7,362

 

$

(21,047

)

$

177,796

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Identifiable assets

 

$

6,788,160

 

$

7,793,700

 

$

106,219

 

$

—  

 

$

14,688,079

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

2001:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffiliated customers

 

$

175,293

 

$

6,642

 

$

(597

)

$

—  

 

$

181,338

 

 

Intersegment

 

 

1,031

 

 

(972

)

 

17,000

 

 

(17,059

)

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total revenues

 

$

176,324

 

$

5,670

 

$

16,403

 

$

(17,059

)

$

181,338

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Income before income taxes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffiliated customers

 

$

153,591

 

$

1,619

 

$

(10,888

)

$

—  

 

$

144,322

 

 

Intersegment

 

 

1,087

 

 

(958

)

 

16,653

 

 

(16,782

)

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total income before income taxes

 

$

154,678

 

$

661

 

$

5,765

 

$

(16,782

)

$

144,322

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Identifiable assets

 

$

5,581,637

 

$

5,775,782

 

$

53,084

 

$

—  

 

$

11,410,503

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

8


Table of Contents

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued)
(Dollars in thousands)

Nine months ended September 30,

 

Financial
Guarantee

 

Financial
Services

 

Corporate
And Other

 

Intersegment
Eliminations

 

Consolidated

 


 


 


 


 


 


 

2002:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffiliated customers

 

$

573,891

 

$

43,307

 

$

2,088

 

$

—  

 

$

619,286

 

 

Intersegment

 

 

7,055

 

 

(3,499

)

 

62,000

 

 

(65,556

)

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total revenues

 

$

580,946

 

$

39,808

 

$

64,088

 

$

(65,556

)

$

619,286

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Income before income taxes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffiliated customers

 

$

500,560

 

$

27,092

 

$

(35,533

)

$

—  

 

$

492,119

 

 

Intersegment

 

 

7,733

 

 

(2,005

)

 

61,019

 

 

(66,747

)

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total income before income taxes

 

$

508,293

 

$

25,087

 

$

25,486

 

$

(66,747

)

$

492,119

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Identifiable assets

 

$

6,788,160

 

$

7,793,700

 

$

106,219

 

$

—  

 

$

14,688,079

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

2001:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffiliated customers

 

$

492,831

 

$

33,306

 

$

1,710

 

$

—  

 

$

527,847

 

 

Intersegment

 

 

3,422

 

 

(2,916

)

 

52,000

 

 

(52,506

)

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total revenues

 

$

496,253

 

$

30,390

 

$

53,710

 

$

(52,506

)

$

527,847

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Income before income taxes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffiliated customers

 

$

427,660

 

$

16,679

 

$

(31,000

)

$

—  

 

$

413,339

 

 

Intersegment

 

 

3,742

 

 

(2,775

)

 

50,959

 

 

(51,926

)

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total income before income taxes

 

$

431,402

 

$

13,904

 

$

19,959

 

$

(51,926

)

$

413,339

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Identifiable assets

 

$

5,581,637

 

$

5,775,782

 

$

53,084

 

$

—  

 

$

11,410,503

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 

            The following table summarizes unaffiliated gross premiums written and net premiums earned included in the financial guarantee segment by location of risk for the three and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2002 and 2001:

 

 

Three Months

 

Nine Months

 

 

 


 


 

 

 

Gross
Premiums
Written

 

Net
Premiums
Earned

 

Gross
Premiums
Written

 

Net
Premiums
Earned

 

 

 


 


 


 


 

2002:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

United States

 

$

168,479

 

$

94,956

 

$

452,140

 

$

271,851

 

 

United Kingdom

 

 

7,605

 

 

5,597

 

 

30,825

 

 

13,812

 

 

Japan

 

 

6,042

 

 

4,950

 

 

15,985

 

 

12,602

 

 

Mexico

 

 

4,083

 

 

1,912

 

 

12,268

 

 

5,764

 

 

Australia

 

 

8,942

 

 

1,713

 

 

9,208

 

 

3,627

 

 

France

 

 

142

 

 

286

 

 

557

 

 

829

 

 

Internationally diversified (1)

 

 

4,562

 

 

7,443

 

 

11,466

 

 

15,120

 

 

Other international

 

 

5,255

 

 

5,539

 

 

17,705

 

 

16,075

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total

 

$

205,110

 

$

122,396

 

$

550,154

 

$

339,680

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

2001:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

United States

 

$

128,544

 

$

82,882

 

$

382,997

 

$

236,436

 

 

United Kingdom

 

 

7,307

 

 

2,922

 

 

34,732

 

 

6,958

 

 

Japan

 

 

3,298

 

 

2,332

 

 

8,808

 

 

6,486

 

 

Mexico

 

 

4,061

 

 

1,885

 

 

12,087

 

 

5,568

 

 

Australia

 

 

2,107

 

 

994

 

 

7,158

 

 

2,787

 

 

France

 

 

95

 

 

274

 

 

531

 

 

822

 

 

Internationally diversified (1)

 

 

4,247

 

 

2,939

 

 

24,993

 

 

7,367

 

 

Other international

 

 

3,259

 

 

3,791

 

 

27,947

 

 

10,123

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total

 

$

152,918

 

$

98,019

 

$

499,253

 

$

276,547

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

1) Internationally diversified includes guarantees with multiple locations of risk and includes components of United States exposure.

9


Table of Contents

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued)
(Dollars in thousands)

            Other credit enhancement fees for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $7.3 million and $20.2 million, respectively. Of the $7.3 million, 14% were domestic and 86% were internationally diversified. Of the $20.2 million, 13% were domestic and 87% were internationally diversified. Other credit enhancement fees for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001 were $5.9 million and $15.5 million, respectively. Of the $5.9 million and $15.5 million, 8% were domestic and 92% were internationally diversified.

(3)       Accounting Standards

            In July 2001, the FASB issued SFAS Statement 142, “Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets”. SFAS 142 addresses the initial recognition and measurement of intangible assets either singly or within a group of assets, as well as the measurement of goodwill and other intangible assets subsequent to their initial acquisition. SFAS 142 changes the accounting for goodwill and intangible assets that have indefinite useful lives from an amortization approach to an impairment-only approach that requires that those assets be tested at least annually for impairment. Intangible assets that have finite useful lives will continue to be amortized over their useful lives, but without an arbitrary ceiling on their useful lives. At September 30, 2002, Ambac had goodwill of $12.5 million. Ambac adopted SFAS 142 effective January 1, 2002. Implementation of SFAS 142 did not have a material impact on the consolidated financial statements.

            In August 2001, the FASB issued SFAS Statement 143, “Accounting for Asset Retirement Obligations”(“SFAS 143”.)  SFAS 143 requires companies to record the fair value of an asset retirement obligation as a liability in the period in which it incurs a legal obligation associated with the retirement of tangible long-lived assets that result from the acquisition, construction, development and/or normal use of the assets.  Companies also record a corresponding asset which is depreciated over the life of the asset.  Subsequent to the initial measurement of the asset retirement obligation, the obligation is adjusted at the end of each period to reflect the passage of time and changes in the estimated future cash flows underlying the obligation.  Ambac is required to adopt SFAS 143 on January 1, 2003. Ambac does not anticipate that SFAS 143 will have a material impact on the consolidated financial statements.

            In October 2001, the FASB issued SFAS Statement 144, “Accounting for the Impairment or Disposal of Long-Lived Assets”(“SFAS 144”.)  SFAS 144 addresses financial accounting and reporting for the impairment or disposal of long-lived assets.  This Statement requires that long-lived assets be reviewed for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that the carrying amount of an asset may not be recoverable. SFAS Statement 144 requires companies to separately report discontinued operations and extends that reporting to a component of an entity that either has been disposed of (by sale, abandonment, or in a distribution to owners) or is classified as held for sale. Assets to be disposed of are reported at the lower of the carrying amount or fair value less cost to sell. Ambac adopted SFAS 144 effective January 1, 2002. This statement did not have an effect on Ambac’s consolidated financial statements.

Ambac has decided to voluntarily adopt the fair value based method of accounting for stock-based compensation plans as prescribed in Statement of Financial Accounting Standards number 123 “Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation” (“SFAS 123”) beginning in the first quarter of 2003.  The fair value based method requires expensing the estimated cost of employee stock options.  Currently, Ambac estimates the net income effect of prospectively adopting FAS 123 will be approximately $0.01 per diluted share on a quarterly basis, for options granted in 2003.

10


Table of Contents

Item 2.      Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

            Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee products and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Management has identified the accounting for loss and loss adjustment expenses and the valuation of financial instruments as critical accounting policies.

            The reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses consists of the active credit reserve and case basis loss and loss adjustment expense reserves. The development of the active credit reserve is based upon estimates of the expected levels of debt service defaults resulting from credit failures on currently guaranteed issues that are not presently or imminently in default. When losses occur (actual monetary defaults or defaults, in the opinion of management, which are imminent on guaranteed obligations), case basis loss reserves are established in an amount that is sufficient to cover the present value of the anticipated defaulted debt service payments over the expected period of default and estimated expenses associated with settling the claims, less estimated recoveries under salvage or subrogation rights. All or parts of case basis loss reserves are allocated from any active credit reserves available. Management believes that the reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses are adequate to cover the ultimate net cost of claims, but the reserves are necessarily based on estimates and there can be no assurance that the ultimate liability will not exceed such estimates.

            The following financial instruments are carried in the accompanying balance sheet at fair value: fixed income investment securities and derivatives used for hedging purposes and derivatives held for trading purposes. The fair values of fixed income investment securities are based primarily on quoted market prices received from a nationally recognized pricing service or dealer quotes.  When quotes are not available, fair values are estimated based upon internal valuation models. The fair values of all derivatives are based on quoted dealer prices, current settlement values, or pricing valuation models. All valuation models include estimates, made by management, which utilize current and historical market information.  The valuation results from these models could differ materially from amounts that would actually be realized in the market.

            Materials in this Form 10-Q may contain information that includes or is based upon forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements give Ambac’s expectations or forecasts of future events. You can identify these statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and relate to future operating or financial performance.

            Any or all of Ambac’s forward-looking statements here or in other publications may turn out to be wrong and are based on current expectations and the current economic environment. Ambac’s actual results may vary materially, and there are no guarantees about the performance of our securities. Among factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are: (1) changes in the economic, credit or interest rate environment in the United States and abroad; (2) the level of activity within the national and worldwide debt markets; (3) competitive conditions and pricing levels; (4) legislative and regulatory developments; (5) changes in tax laws; (6) the policies and actions of the United States and other governments; and (7) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time. Ambac is not obligated to publicly correct or update any forward-looking statement if we later become aware that it is not likely to be achieved, except as required by law. You are advised, however, to consult any further disclosures we make on related subjects in Ambac’s reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

11


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

Results of Operations

            The following paragraphs describe the consolidated results of operations of Ambac and its subsidiaries for the three and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2002 and 2001, and its financial condition as of September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001. These results are presented for Ambac’s two reportable segments: Financial Guarantee and Financial Services.

            Consolidated Net Income

            Ambac’s net income for the three months ended September 30, 2002 was $131.7 million or $1.21 per diluted share. This represents a 19% increase from the three months ended September 30, 2001 net income of $111.0 million, or $1.02 per diluted share for the three months ended September 30, 2001. The increase in net income was primarily attributable to growth in Financial Guarantee operating income. Financial Guarantee revenues increased $29.3 million, or 17%. Excluding realized and unrealized gains and losses from investment securities and structured credit derivatives, Financial Guarantee revenues increased by 20%. Financial Guarantee total expenses increased $2.9 million, or 13% from the three months ended September 30, 2001. Ambac’s net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 was $368.4 million or $3.38 per diluted share. This represents an increase of 17% from the comparable prior period net income of $316.2 million or $2.90 per diluted share in the nine months ended September 30, 2001.

            Financial Guarantee

            Ambac provides financial guarantees for debt obligations through its principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance, as well as credit protection in the form of structured credit derivatives through Ambac Credit Products LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Ambac Assurance.  Ambac provides these services in three principal markets: public finance, structured finance and international finance.

            Public finance obligations are bonds issued by states, municipalities and other governmental or not-for-profit entities located in the United States (“Public Finance”).  Bond proceeds are used to finance or refinance a broad spectrum of public purpose initiatives, including education, utility, transportation, healthcare and other general purpose projects. Although Ambac generally guarantees the full range of Public Finance obligations, more recently Ambac has been concentrating on those deals in the Public Finance area which require more structuring skills. Certain projects which had been financed by the local or U.S. government alone are now being financed through public-private partnerships. In these transactions, debt service on the bonds, rather than being paid solely by tax revenues or other governmental funds, are being paid from a variety of revenue sources, including revenues derived from the project itself. Examples of these deals include stadium financings, student housing and military housing.

            Structured finance obligations include the securitization of a variety of asset types such as mortgages, home equity loans, leases and pooled debt obligations originated in the United States (“Structured Finance”). Currently, the largest component of Ambac’s structured business stems from the securitization of mortgages and home equity loans. Another target area in Structured Finance is the credit enhancement of pooled debt obligations and structured credit derivatives. These transactions involve the securitization of a portfolio of corporate or asset-

12

 


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

backed obligations and, as with all securitizations, Ambac’s participation is generally structured with first loss protection.

            International finance obligations include public purpose infrastructure projects and asset-backed securities originated outside of the United States (“International Finance”). Ambac’s emphasis internationally has been on Western Europe, Japan and Australia. In the United Kingdom, Ambac has participated extensively in the Private Finance Initiative whereby the government has been privatizing certain activities. In Japan, Ambac has an alliance with Sampo Japan Financial Guarantee Co. Ltd. (formerly known as Yasuda Kasai Financial Guarantee Insurance Co. Ltd.).  Ambac also participates in developing markets through certain structures such as pooled debt obligations or future flow transactions. Future flow transactions essentially securitize future revenue streams derived from operating receivables or the sale of commodities.

            Gross Par Written. Ambac Assurance guaranteed $33.7 billion in par value bonds during the three months ended September 30, 2002, more than double the $15.9 billion in par value bonds guaranteed during the comparable prior year period. Par value written for the third quarter of 2002 was comprised of $10.1 billion from Public Finance bond obligations, $14.5 billion from Structured Finance obligations and $9.1 billion from international obligations, compared to $7.7 billion, $5.4 billion and $2.8 billion, respectively, in the third quarter of 2001.

            During the nine months ended September 30, 2002, Ambac Assurance guaranteed $73.2 billion in par value bonds, a 21% increase from $60.5 billion in par during the first nine months of 2001. Par value written for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 was comprised of $28.9 billion from Public Finance bond obligations, $30.2 billion from Structured Finance obligations and $14.1 billion from International Finance obligations, compared to $24.1 billion, $23.3 billion and $13.1 billion, respectively, in the nine months ended September 30, 2001.

            The volume of new issue Public Finance bonds for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 increased by 55% and 30%, respectively.  The increase in total issuance was largely the result of the lower interest rate environment, causing an increase in both the refinancing and new money components of the market.  Additionally, insured penetration increased to 51% in the nine months ended September 30, 2002, as compared to 48% for the comparable period in the prior year. 

            Structured Finance obligations guaranteed during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 increased by 171% and 29% compared to their respective periods in 2001. This was largely the result of brisk activity in the consumer asset-backed market (mortgage, auto and credit card). Additionally, the events of September 2001 delayed the issuance of some transactions until the fourth quarter of 2001.

            International Finance obligations guaranteed during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 increased by 225% and 8% compared to their respective periods in 2001. This was a result of higher writings of structured credit derivatives during the third quarter of 2002.  Structured credit derivatives written for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $6.0 billion and $7.2 billion, respectively, compared to $0.9 billion and $7.3 billion in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001, respectively.

            Gross Premiums Written. Gross premiums written for the three and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2002 were $205.1 million and $550.2 million, an increase of $52.2 million

13


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

or 34% from $152.9 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of $50.9 million or 10% from $499.3 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. The increase for the three months ended September 30, 2002 is a result of higher premiums written in all three markets – Public Finance, Structured Finance, and International Finance. The increase for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 is due to higher Public and Structured Finance gross premiums written, partially offset by lower International Finance gross premiums written.

            Installment premiums written for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $82.4 million and $242.7 million, respectively, an increase of 32% from $62.3 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 38% from $176.4 in the nine months ended September 30, 2001.The growth in installment premiums is due to the growing book of business from all markets. Guaranteed par that collects premiums on an installment basis has grown to approximately $126 billion at September 30, 2002, a 25% increase from September 30, 2001. Up-front premiums written for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $122.7 million and $307.5 million, an increase of 35% from $90.6 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and a decrease of 5% from $322.9 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001.

            The following tables set forth the amounts of gross premiums written and the related gross par written by type:

 

 

Three Months Ended September 30,

 

 

 


 

(Dollars in Millions)

 

2002

 

2001

 


 


 


 

 

 

Gross
Premiums
Written

 

Gross
Par
Written

 

Gross
Premiums
Written

 

Gross
Par
Written

 

 

 


 


 


 


 

Public Finance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New issue

 

$

106.5

 

$

8,863

 

$

73.3

 

$

7,316

 

 

Secondary market

 

 

1.3

 

 

105

 

 

0.7

 

 

112

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Sub-total up-front

 

 

107.8

 

 

8,968

 

 

74.0

 

 

7,428

 

 

Installment

 

 

7.3

 

 

1,141

 

 

5.5

 

 

310

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total Public Finance

 

 

115.1

 

 

10,109

 

 

79.5

 

 

7,738

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Structured Finance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front

 

 

6.3

 

 

305

 

 

9.8

 

 

781

 

 

Installment

 

 

47.1

 

 

14,189

 

 

40.5

 

 

4,567

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total Structured Finance

 

 

53.4

 

 

14,494

 

 

50.3

 

 

5,348

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

International Finance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front

 

 

8.6

 

 

386

 

 

6.8

 

 

898

 

 

Installment

 

 

28.0

 

 

8,682

 

 

16.3

 

 

1,900

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total  International Finance

 

 

36.6

 

 

9,068

 

 

23.1

 

 

2,798

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total

 

$

205.1

 

$

33,671

 

$

152.9

 

$

15,884

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Total up-front

 

$

122.7

 

$

9,659

 

$

90.6

 

$

9,107

 

Total installment

 

 

82.4

 

 

24,012

 

 

62.3

 

 

6,777

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total

 

$

205.1

 

$

33,671

 

$

152.9

 

$

15,884

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

14


Table of Contents


Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30,

 

 

 


 

(Dollars in Millions)

 

2002

 

2001

 


 


 


 

 

 

Gross
Premiums
Written

 

Gross
Par
Written

 

Gross
Premiums
Written

 

Gross
Par
Written

 

 

 


 


 


 


 

Public Finance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New issue

 

$

254.1

 

$

24,575

 

$

217.5

 

$

21,218

 

 

Secondary market

 

 

4.0

 

 

438

 

 

7.2

 

 

936

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Sub-total up-front

 

 

258.1

 

 

25,013

 

 

224.7

 

 

22,154

 

 

Installment

 

 

27.9

 

 

3,866

 

 

16.7

 

 

1,909

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total Public Finance

 

 

286.0

 

 

28,879

 

 

241.4

 

 

24,063

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Structured Finance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front

 

 

26.7

 

 

2,243

 

 

33.7

 

 

2,379

 

 

Installment

 

 

139.5

 

 

27,985

 

 

112.5

 

 

20,976

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total Structured Finance

 

 

166.2

 

 

30,228

 

 

146.2

 

 

23,355

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

International Finance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front

 

 

22.7

 

 

1,008

 

 

64.5

 

 

2,690

 

 

Installment

 

 

75.3

 

 

13,092

 

 

47.2

 

 

10,400

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total  International Finance

 

 

98.0

 

 

14,100

 

 

111.7

 

 

13,090

 

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total

 

$

550.2

 

$

73,207

 

$

499.3

 

$

60,508

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Total up-front

 

$

307.5

 

$

28,264

 

$

322.9

 

$

27,223

 

Total installment

 

 

242.7

 

 

44,943

 

 

176.4

 

 

33,285

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

 

Total

 

$

550.2

 

$

73,207

 

$

499.3

 

$

60,508

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

            Ceded Premiums Written. Ceded premiums written for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $26.9 million and $71.1 million, respectively, a decrease of 25% from $35.9 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and a decrease of 2% from $72.3 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. Ceded premiums written were 13.1% and 12.9% of gross premiums written for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002, respectively, compared with 23.5% and 14.5% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001, respectively. The decrease in ceded premiums written for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 as compared to the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001 stems primarily from lower utilization of the reinsurance program for Public Finance transactions.  Public Finance ceded premiums written were 11.2% and 13.2% of Public Finance gross premiums written for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001, respectively.

            The reinsurance of risk does not relieve Ambac of its original liability to its policyholders.  In the event that any of Ambac’s reinsurers are unable to meet their obligations under reinsurance contracts, Ambac would be liable for such defaulted amounts.  To minimize exposure to significant losses to reinsurers, Ambac (1) evaluates the financial condition of its reinsurers; (2) has collateral provisions in certain reinsurance contracts; and (3) has certain termination triggers that can be exercised by Ambac in the event of a rating downgrade of a reinsurer.  During 2002, both S&P and Moody’s have lowered the financial strength ratings on certain reinsurers.  Subsequent to these reinsurer downgrades, both on an S&P and Moody’s ratings basis, approximately 99% of Ambac’s reinsurers are rated at least AA- and Aa3, respectively.  Additionally, Ambac held letters of credit and collateral amounting to approximately $130.0 million from its reinsurers.

            Net Premiums Written. Net premiums written for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $178.3 million and $479.0 million, respectively, an increase of 52% from $117.0 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 12% from $426.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2001, respectively. The increases

15


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

reflect both the higher amounts of gross premiums written and the lower amounts of cessions to reinsurers in 2002.

            Net Premiums Earned and Other Credit Enhancement Fees. Net premiums earned and other credit enhancement fees during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $129.7 million and $359.9 million, respectively, an increase of 25% from $103.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 23% from $292.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2001. These increases were primarily the result of the larger Financial Guarantee book of business, higher other credit enhancement fees earned from the structured credit derivatives business and higher refundings, calls and other accelerations of previously insured obligations (collectively referred to as “refundings”).

            When an issue insured by Ambac Assurance has been refunded or called, any remaining unearned premium (net of refunding credits, if any) is earned at that time. Earnings on refundings typically relate to insured Public Finance obligations, where the premium is usually paid up front for the life of the policy. Refunding levels vary depending upon a number of conditions, primarily the relationship between current interest rates and interest rates on outstanding debt. Net premiums earned during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 included $15.7 million (which had a net income per diluted share effect of $0.08) and $34.2 million (which had a net income per diluted share effect of $0.18) from refundings of previously insured issues. Included in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 refunding amounts is $4.3 million from International Finance transactions. Net premiums earned during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001 included $10.5 million (which had a net income per diluted share effect of $0.05) and $27.2 million (which had a net income per diluted share effect of $0.14) from refundings of previously insured issues. There were no International Finance refundings in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001.

            Excluding the effect of accelerated earnings related to refundings, normal net premiums earned (which is defined as net premiums earned less refundings) increased 22% from $87.5 million in the third quarter of 2001 to $106.7 million in the third quarter of 2002. Normal net premiums earned for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $305.5 million, an increase of 23% from $249.4 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. The increases in normal net premiums earned resulted primarily from the continued growth in the insured book of business in all markets. Normal net premiums earned during the three months ended September 30, 2002 increased 11%, 20% and 53% for Public, Structured and International Finance, respectively, from the three months ended September 30, 2001. Normal net premiums earned during the nine months ended September 30, 2002 increased 13%, 18% and 58% for Public, Structured and International Finance, respectively, from the nine months ended September 30, 2001.

            Other credit enhancement fees, which is primarily comprised of fees received from the structured credit derivatives product, during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $7.3 million and $20.2 million, respectively, an increase of 24% from $5.9 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 30% from $15.5 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. The increases are due to the continued growth in the structured credit derivatives business.

            The following table provides a breakdown of net premiums earned by market sector and other credit enhancement fees:

16


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

(Dollars in Millions)

 

Three Months Ended
September 30,

 

Nine Months Ended
September 30,

 


 


 


 

 

 

2002

 

2001

 

2002

 

2001

 

 

 


 


 


 


 

Public Finance

 

$

39.0

 

$

35.1

 

$

114.3

 

$

101.5

 

Structured Finance

 

 

44.6

 

 

37.3

 

 

127.7

 

 

107.8

 

International Finance

 

 

23.1

 

 

15.1

 

 

63.5

 

 

40.1

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Total normal premiums earned

 

 

106.7

 

 

87.5

 

 

305.5

 

 

249.4

 

Refundings

 

 

15.7

 

 

10.5

 

 

34.2

 

 

27.2

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Total net premiums earned

 

 

122.4

 

 

98.0

 

 

339.7

 

 

276.6

 

Other credit enhancement fees

 

 

7.3

 

 

5.9

 

 

20.2

 

 

15.5

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

Total net premiums earned and other credit enhancement  fees

 

$

129.7

 

$

103.9

 

$

359.9

 

$

292.1

 

 

 



 



 



 



 

            Net Investment Income. Net investment income for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $75.9 million and $222.0 million, increases of 13% from $67.3 million and $196.9 million in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001, respectively. These increases were primarily attributable to (i) the growth of the investment portfolio resulting from the growth in the Financial Guarantee book of business, partially offset by a lower reinvestment rate due to the current interest rate environment; and (ii) a capital contribution from Ambac Financial Group, Inc. totaling approximately $176 million during the fourth quarter of 2001. The capital contribution is a result of Ambac Financial Group’s issuance of $200.0 million of debentures in October 2001. Ambac Assurance’s investments in tax-exempt securities amounted to 69% of the total fair value of its portfolio as of September 30, 2002, versus 68% at September 30, 2001.

            The average pre-tax yield-to-maturity on the investment portfolio was 5.62% and 5.82% as of September 30, 2002 and 2001, respectively.

            Net Securities (Losses) Gains.  Net securities losses for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $1.5 million and $10.6 million, respectively. This compares to net securities gains of $3.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2001 and net securities losses of $0.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2001. The following table details amounts included in net securities (losses) gains:

(Dollars in Millions)

 

Three Months Ended
September 30,

 

Nine Months Ended
September 30,

 


 


 


 

 

 

2002

 

2001

 

2002

 

2001

 

 

 


 


 


 


 

Net gains on securities sold

 

$

5.8

 

$

4.0

 

$

6.6

 

$

4.5

 

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on investments

 

 

(0.4

)

 

2.6

 

 

1.8

 

 

(1.5

)

Change in fair value of structured credit derivatives

 

 

(6.9

)

 

(3.0

)

 

(19.0

)

 

(3.0

)

 

 



 



 



 



 

Net securities (losses) gains

 

$

(1.5

)

$

3.6

 

$

(10.6

)

$

(0.0

)

 

 



 



 



 



 

            The change in fair value of structured credit derivatives relates to unrealized mark-to-market gains and losses. Additionally, realized losses paid on structured credit derivatives totaled $2.5 million and $4.0 million in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002.

            Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses. Losses and loss adjustment expenses for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $6.1 million and $17.7 million, respectively, compared to $5.1 million and $14.5 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001, respectively. The following table summarizes Ambac’s loss reserves split between case basis loss reserves and active credit reserves at September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001.

17


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)


(Dollars in millions)

 

September 30,
2002

 

December 31,
2001

 


 


 


 

Net loss and loss adjustment expense reserves:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case basis reserves *

 

$

45.0

 

$

27.8

 

 

Active credit reserves

 

 

119.8

 

 

122.3

 

 

 

 



 



 

Total

 

$

164.8

 

$

150.1

 

 

 



 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(*)

After netting reinsurance recoverable amounting to $2.2 million and $2.3 million at September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001, respectively.

            The following table summarizes the changes in the total net loss reserves for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 and the year-ended December 31, 2001:

(Dollars in millions)

 

September 30,
2002

 

December 31,
2001

 


 


 


 

Beginning balance of net loss reserves

 

$

150.1

 

$

131.3

 

Additions to loss reserves

 

 

17.7

 

 

20.0

 

Losses paid

 

 

(3.3

)

 

(2.6

)

Recoveries of previously paid losses

 

 

0.3

 

 

1.4

 

 

 



 



 

Ending balance of net loss reserves

 

$

164.8

 

$

150.1

 

 

 



 



 

            Management continually reviews and monitors the guaranteed book of business for potential problem credits. Case reserves on guaranteed issues presently in monetary default were $10.8 million at September 30, 2002.  These obligations in monetary default require debt service through 2026 totaling $16.6 million.  Debt service payments are $0.0 million, $0.9 million, $0.8 million, $3.1 million and $0.6 million for the remainder of 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively.  Case reserves on guaranteed issues not presently in monetary default were $34.2 million at September 30, 2002.  Net par related to the $34.2 million in case reserves amounted to $512.0 million at September 30, 2002. Additions made to the case reserve totaled $17.2 million and $5.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001, respectively. The following tables provide details of losses paid for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001 and case reserves at September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001 by market sector:

(Dollars in millions)

 

September 30,
2002

 

September 30,
2001

 


 


 


 

Losses paid:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Finance

 

$

3.2

 

$

2.2

 

 

Structured Finance

 

 

0.1

 

 

—  

 

 

International Finance

 

 

—  

 

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 

Total

 

$

3.3

 

$

2.2

 

 

 



 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Dollars in millions)

 

September 30,
2002

 

December 31,
2001

 


 


 


 

Case reserves:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Finance

 

$

39.2

 

$

27.8

 

 

Structured Finance

 

 

2.0

 

 

—  

 

 

International Finance

 

 

3.8

 

 

—  

 

 

 



 



 

Total

 

$

45.0

 

$

27.8

 

 

 



 



 

            Underwriting and Operating Expenses. Underwriting and operating expenses for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $18.5 million and $55.6 million, respectively, an increase of 11% from $16.6 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 10% from $50.7 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001.

18


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

Underwriting and operating expenses consist of gross underwriting and operating expenses, less the deferral to future periods of expenses and reinsurance commissions related to the acquisition of new insurance contracts, plus the amortization of previously deferred expenses and reinsurance commissions. During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002, gross underwriting and operating expenses were $27.8 million and $83.0 million, respectively, an increase of 29% from $21.5 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 14% from $72.8 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. These increases in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 reflects the overall increased business activity and is primarily attributable to higher compensation costs related to the addition of staff and higher premium taxes as a result of higher direct premiums written. Underwriting and operating expenses deferred for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $17.4 million and $51.3 million, respectively, and $12.2 million and $43.5 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001, respectively. The amortization of previously deferred expenses and reinsurance commissions for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $8.2 million and $24.0 million, respectively, and $7.3 million and $21.4 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001, respectively.

            Financial Services

            Through its financial services subsidiaries, Ambac provides financial and investment products including investment agreements, interest rate swaps, total return swaps, funding conduits, investment advisory and cash management services, principally to its financial guarantee clients which include municipalities and their authorities, school districts, health care organizations and asset-backed issuers.

            Revenues.  Revenues, excluding securities gains and losses, for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $13.6 million and $41.1 million, respectively, an increase of 33% from $10.2 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 13% from $36.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2001. The increase in third quarter 2002 amounts is primarily due to higher investment agreement revenues of $7.2 million in the third quarter of 2002, better than double the third quarter 2001 revenues of $3.5 million, stemming from improved net interest spreads and higher volume. Swap revenues and the investment advisory and cash management business revenues were relatively flat, at $3.2 million and $3.1 million, respectively, in the third quarter of 2002 compared to 2001. The increase in revenues in the nine months ended September 30, 2002 is a result of higher investment agreement revenues of $19.3 million, compared to $9.8 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. Partially offsetting this increase were swap revenues of $11.5 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2002, which were $4.9 million lower than the nine months ended September 30, 2001 swap revenues of $16.4 million. This decrease was mainly due to an adjustment of $3.8 million on a transaction executed in early 2000 and terminated in the second quarter of 2002.

            Expenses. Expenses for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $5.4 million and $16.2 million, respectively, up 8% from $5.0 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and a decrease of 2% from $16.6 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001.

            Corporate Items

            Interest Expense.Interest expense for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 was $10.8 million and $32.3 million, respectively, an increase of 15% from $9.4 million in

19


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 14% from $28.3 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. The increase is attributable to Ambac’s issuance of $200 million in 50-year debentures in October 2001.

            Income Taxes. Income taxes for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were at an effective rate of 25.9% and 25.1%, respectively, versus 23.1% and 23.5% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2001. The increase in the effective rate is primarily the result of the growth in underwriting profits and a favorable settlement of certain tax audits during the third quarter of 2001.

            Supplemental Analytical Financial Data

            Management, equity analysts and investors consider adjusted gross premiums written important in analyzing the financial results of Ambac. However, adjusted gross premiums written is not promulgated in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”) and should not be considered a substitute for gross premiums written. The definition of adjusted gross premiums written described below may differ from the definition used by other public holding companies of financial guarantee insurers.

            Adjusted Gross Premiums Written. Ambac defines adjusted gross premiums written as gross (direct and assumed) up-front premiums written plus the present value of estimated installment premiums written on insurance policies and structured credit derivatives issued in the period. Adjusted gross premiums for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $305.6 million and $794.2 million, respectively, an increase of 69% from $180.6 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 23% from $646.1 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. During 2002, adjusted gross premium growth was achieved in all markets.

            Public Finance adjusted gross premiums for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $126.8 million and $335.7 million, respectively, an increase of 59% from $79.5 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 35% from $249.5 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. These increases resulted from higher issuance and higher insured penetration, partially offset by Ambac’s lower par market share. Ambac continues to focus on the more highly structured part of this market that carries higher premiums and risk weighted returns. This is accomplished without compromising Ambac’s historical underwriting standards.

            Structured Finance adjusted gross premiums for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $85.6 million and $266.5 million, respectively, an increase of 67% from $51.4 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 25% from $212.6 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. Increases in this market were driven by strong demand in many areas of the consumer asset-backed market, primarily mortgage-backed, auto and credit card transactions.

            International Finance adjusted gross premiums for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 were $93.2 million and $192.0 million, respectively, an increase of 88% from $49.7 million in the three months ended September 30, 2001 and an increase of 4% from $184.0 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2001. International Finance continues to be dominated by large deals, thus creating some variability in premiums writings. Deal flow was especially strong in the transportation, utilities, mortgage-backed and collateralized debt obligations.

20


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

            The following table sets forth the amounts of adjusted gross premiums by type and percent of total for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001:

 

 

Three Months Ended September 30,

 

Nine Months Ended September 30,

 

 

 


 


 

(Dollars in Millions)

 

2002

 

%

 

2001

 

%

 

2002

 

%

 

2001

 

%

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

Public Finance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New issue

 

$

106.5

 

 

35

%

$

73.3

 

 

41

%

$

254.1

 

 

32

%

$

217.5

 

 

34

%

 

Secondary market

 

 

1.3

 

 

—  

 

 

0.7

 

 

—  

 

 

3.9

 

 

—  

 

 

7.2

 

 

1

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Sub-total up-front

 

 

107.8

 

 

35

 

 

74.0

 

 

41

 

 

258.0

 

 

32

 

 

224.7

 

 

35

 

 

Installment

 

 

19.0

 

 

6

 

 

5.5

 

 

3

 

 

77.7

 

 

10

 

 

24.8

 

 

4

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total Public Finance

 

 

126.8

 

 

41

 

 

79.5

 

 

44

 

 

335.7

 

 

42

 

 

249.5

 

 

39

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

Structured Finance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front

 

 

6.2

 

 

2

 

 

9.8

 

 

5

 

 

26.7

 

 

4

 

 

33.7

 

 

5

 

 

Installment

 

 

79.4

 

 

26

 

 

41.6

 

 

23

 

 

239.8

 

 

30

 

 

178.9

 

 

28

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total Structured Finance

 

 

85.6

 

 

28

 

 

51.4

 

 

28

 

 

266.5

 

 

34

 

 

212.6

 

 

33

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

International Finance (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up-front

 

 

8.7

 

 

3

 

 

6.8

 

 

4

 

 

22.8

 

 

3

 

 

64.5

 

 

10

 

 

Installment

 

 

84.5

 

 

28

 

 

42.9

 

 

24

 

 

169.2

 

 

21

 

 

119.5

 

 

18

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

 

Total International Finance

 

 

93.2

 

 

31

 

 

49.7

 

 

28

 

 

192.0

 

 

24

 

 

184.0

 

 

28

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

Total adjusted gross premiums

 

$

305.6

 

 

100

%

$

180.6

 

 

100

%

$

794.2

 

 

100

%

$

646.1

 

 

100

%

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

Total up-front

 

$

122.7

 

 

40

%

$

90.6

 

 

50

%

$

307.5

 

 

39

%

$

322.9

 

 

50

%

Total installment

 

 

182.9

 

 

60

 

 

90.0

 

 

50

 

 

486.7

 

 

61

 

 

323.2

 

 

50

 

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

Total  adjusted gross premiums

 

$

305.6

 

 

100

%

$

180.6

 

 

100

%

$

794.2

 

 

100

%

$

646.1

 

 

100

%

 

 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



 

(1) Adjusted gross premiums written include reinsurance assumed of $17.6 million and $18.5 million in the third quarter and nine months ended September 2002, respectively, and $7.0 million and $48.6 million in the third quarter and nine months ended September 2001, respectively.

            Liquidity and Capital Resources

            Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Liquidity. Ambac’s liquidity, both on a short-term basis (for the next twelve months) and a long-term basis (beyond the next twelve months), is largely dependent upon (i) Ambac Assurance’s ability to pay dividends or make other payments to Ambac; (ii) external financings; and (iii) investment income from its investment portfolio. Pursuant to Wisconsin insurance laws, Ambac Assurance may declare dividends, provided that, after giving effect to the distribution, it would not violate certain statutory equity, solvency and asset tests. During the nine months ended September 30, 2002, Ambac Assurance paid dividends of $58.5 million on its common stock to Ambac.

            Ambac’s principal uses of liquidity are for the payment of its operating expenses, income taxes, interest on its debt, dividends on its shares of common stock, purchases of its common stock in the open market and capital investments in its subsidiaries. Based on the amount of dividends that it expects to receive from Ambac Assurance and other subsidiaries during the next twelve months and the income it expects to receive from its investment portfolio, management believes that Ambac will have sufficient liquidity to satisfy its liquidity needs over the next twelve months, including the ability to pay dividends on its common stock in accordance with its dividend policy. Beyond the next twelve months, Ambac Assurance’s ability to declare and pay dividends to Ambac may be influenced by a variety of factors, including adverse market changes, insurance regulatory changes and changes in general economic conditions. Consequently, although management believes that Ambac will continue to have sufficient liquidity to meet its debt service and other obligations over the long term, no guarantee can be given that Ambac Assurance will be permitted to dividend amounts sufficient

21


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

to pay all of Ambac’s operating expenses, debt service obligations and dividends on its common stock.

            Ambac Assurance Liquidity.  The principal uses of Ambac Assurance’s liquidity are the payment of operating expenses, claims paid, reinsurance premiums, taxes, dividends to Ambac and capital investments in its subsidiaries. Management believes that Ambac Assurance’s operating liquidity needs can be funded exclusively from its operating cash flow. The principal sources of Ambac Assurance’s liquidity are gross premiums written, scheduled investment maturities, net investment income and receipts from structured credit derivatives.

            Financial Services Liquidity. The principal uses of liquidity by financial services subsidiaries are payment of investment agreement obligations pursuant to defined terms, net obligations under interest rate swaps and related hedges, operating expenses, income taxes and dividends to Ambac. Management believes that its Financial Services liquidity needs can be funded primarily from its operating cash flow and the maturity of its invested assets. The principal sources of this segment’s liquidity are proceeds from issuance of investment agreements, net investment income, maturities of securities from its investment portfolio (which are invested with the objective of matching the maturity schedule of its obligations under the investment agreements), net receipts from interest rate swaps and related hedges, and fees for investment management services. Additionally, from time to time, liquidity needs of the financial services subsidiaries are satisfied by short-term inter-company loans from Ambac Assurance. The investment objectives with respect to investment agreements are to achieve the highest after-tax total return, subject to a minimum average credit quality rating of Aa/AA on invested assets, and to maintain cash flow matching of invested assets to funded liabilities to minimize interest rate and liquidity exposure. Financial Services subsidiaries maintain a portion of their assets in short-term investments and repurchase agreements in order to meet unexpected liquidity needs.

            Credit Facilities.  Ambac and Ambac Assurance have a revolving credit facility with six major international banks for $300 million, which expires in July 2003 and provides a two-year term loan provision. The facility is available for general corporate purposes, including the payment of claims. As of September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001, no amounts were outstanding under this credit facility. This facility’s financial covenants require that Ambac: (i) maintain as of the end of each fiscal quarter a debt to capital ratio of not more than 30% and (ii) maintain at all times total stockholders’ equity equal to or greater than $1.75 billion.

            Capital Support.

            Ambac Assurance has a series of perpetual put options on its own preferred stock. The counterparty to these put options are trusts established by a major investment bank.  The trusts were created as a vehicle for providing capital support to Ambac Assurance by allowing Ambac Assurance to obtain immediate access to new capital at its sole discretion at any time through the exercise of the put option. If the put option were exercised, the preferred stock holdings of Ambac Assurance would give investors the rights of an equity investor in Ambac Assurance. Such rights are subordinate to insurance claims, as well as to the general unsecured creditors of Ambac Assurance. If exercised, Ambac Assurance would receive up to $800 million in return for the issuance of its own perpetual preferred stock, the proceeds of which may be used for any purpose including the payment of claims. Dividend payments on the preferred stock are cumulative only if Ambac Assurance pays dividends on its common stock. Each trust is restricted to holding high quality short-term commercial paper investments to ensure that it can meet its obligations under the put option.  To fund these investments, each trust has issued its

22


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

own auction market perpetual preferred stock.  Ambac Assurance pays a floating put option fee. Each trust is rated AA/Aa2 by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s respectively.

            Stock Repurchase Program. The Board of Directors of Ambac has authorized the establishment of a stock repurchase program that permits the repurchase of up to 12,000,000 shares of Ambac’s Common Stock. During the nine months ended September 30, 2002, Ambac acquired approximately 657,000 shares for an aggregate amount of $38.7million. Since inception of the Stock Repurchase Program, Ambac has acquired approximately 8,929,000 shares for an aggregate amount of $263.5 million.

            Balance Sheet. Total assets as of September 30, 2002 were $14.69 billion, an increase of 19% from $12.35 billion at December 31, 2001. This increase was due primarily to cash generated from business written during the period and higher volume in the guaranteed investment agreement business. As of September 30, 2002, stockholders’ equity was $3.62 billion, a 21% increase from year-end 2001 stockholders’ equity of $2.98 billion. The increase stemmed primarily from net income during the period and an increase in the market value of fixed income investment securities. The increased market value was primarily due to a decrease in interest rates during the nine months ended September 30, 2002.

            Ambac’s investment portfolio consists primarily of investments in fixed income securities that are considered available-for-sale and are carried at fair value. Fair value is based primarily on quotes obtained from independent market sources. When quotes are not available, valuation models are used to estimate fair value. These models include estimates, made by management, which utilize current market information.  The valuation results from these models could differ materially from amounts that would actually be realized in the market.  Short-term investments are carried at cost, which approximates fair value. Unrealized gains and losses, net of deferred income taxes, are included as a component of “Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income” in stockholders’ equity.

            The amortized cost and estimated fair value of investments in fixed income securities and short-term investments at September 30, 2002 were as follows:

(Dollars in thousands)

 

Amortized
Cost

 

Estimated
Fair
Value

 


 


 


 

Fixed income securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Municipal obligations

 

$

4,120,273

 

$

4,479,997

 

Corporate obligations

 

 

1,658,041

 

 

1,702,150

 

Foreign government obligations

 

 

105,925

 

 

115,170

 

U.S. government obligations

 

 

98,501

 

 

108,245

 

Mortgage and asset-backed securities (includes U.S. government agency obligations)

 

 

4,181,040

 

 

4,305,132

 

Short-term

 

 

137,369

 

 

137,369

 

 

 



 



 

 

 

 

10,301,149

 

 

10,848,063

 

 

 



 



 

Fixed income securities pledged as collateral:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage and asset-backed securities (includes U.S. government agency obligations)

 

 

809,274

 

 

815,742

 

 

 



 



 

 

Total

 

$

11,110,423

 

$

11,663,805

 

 

 



 



 

23


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

            The credit rating composition of Ambac’s investment portfolio at September 30, 2002 was as follows: (1)

Rating

 

% of
Investment
Portfolio

 


 


 

AAA (2)

 

 

77

%

AA

 

 

11

 

A

 

 

9

 

BBB

 

 

2

 

BIG (3)

 

 

<1

 

Not Rated

 

 

1

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

100

%

 

 



 


(1)

Ratings are based on  Standard & Poor’s ratings. If unavailable, Moody’s rating are used.

(2)

Includes U.S. Treasury and Agency obligations, which comprised approximately 30% of the total investment portfolio.

(3)

Below investment grade

            Investment securities are regularly reviewed for impairment based on criteria that include the extent to which cost exceeds market value and a financial assessment of the security.  Of those securities whose amortized cost exceeded fair value at September 30, 2002, approximately $11.9 million ($7.7 million after tax) is at risk of being charged to earnings in the next 12 months.  No impairment losses were recognized during the 9 months ended September 30, 2002 or 2001.  Ambac owns investments in National Century Financial Enterprises, Inc. Sponsored Programs note NPF XII ($54.0 million), and note NPF VI ($120.5 million) in its financial services investment portfolio. The notes were downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service from Aaa to below investment grade on November 6, 2002. The downgrades resulted from a technical default in the NPF XII note related to a deficit in the reserve accounts. Ambac, as part of a group of investors, is in the process of investigating the concerns at the issuer. Ambac has no financial guarantee exposure to National Century Financial Enterprises, Inc. Sponsored Programs.

            Special Purpose Entities. Ambac has sponsored two special purpose entities. The business purpose of these entities is to provide certain financial guarantee clients with funding for their debt obligations. Ambac receives financial guarantee premiums and may receive other fees for this service. Ambac accounts for these entities as Qualified Special Purpose Entities (“QSPEs”) in accordance with Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 140.  The QSPEs are non-consolidated. Ambac purchases debt obligations from certain financial guarantee clients and sells these obligations to the QSPEs. The purchase by the QSPE is financed through the issuance of medium-term notes (“MTNs”), which are collateralized by the purchased assets. These MTNs are generally structured to match the cash flow of the assets purchased. Derivative contracts may be used (interest rate and currency swaps) for hedging purposes only. Derivative hedges are established at the time MTNs are issued to purchase financial assets. Ambac Assurance may issue a financial guarantee insurance policy on the assets sold, the MTNs issued or both.  As of September 30, 2002, Ambac Assurance had insurance policies issued for all assets owned by and all MTNs outstanding of the QSPEs. Since these exposures are insured, any losses incurred would be included in Ambac’s Consolidated Statements of Operations. As of September 30, 2002, the outstanding MTN liabilities were $1.2 billion. Under the terms of an Administrative Agency Agreement, Ambac provides certain administrative duties, including asset and liability servicing responsibilities.

            Cash Flows. Net cash provided by operating activities was $482.0 million and $507.5 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001, respectively. These cash flows were primarily provided by financial guarantee operations.

24


Table of Contents

Item 2.     Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (Continued)

            Net cash provided by financing activities was $687.8 million and $189.7 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001, respectively, of which $726.5 million and $224.5 million was provided by investment agreements issued (net of draws paid) for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 and 2001, respectively.

            Net cash used in investing activities was $1,214.0 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2002, of which $4,599.8 million was used to purchase bonds, partially offset by the proceeds from sales and maturities of bonds of $3,112.2 million. For the nine months ended September 30, 2001, $631.2 million was used in investing activities, of which $3,418.9 million was used to purchase bonds, partially offset by the proceeds and maturities of bonds of $2,860.6 million.

            Material Commitments. Ambac has made no commitments for material capital expenditures within the next twelve months.

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Table of Contents

Item 3.      Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

            In the ordinary course of business, Ambac, through its affiliates, manages a variety of risks, principally credit, market, liquidity, operational, and legal. These risks are identified, measured and monitored through a variety of control mechanisms that are in place at different levels throughout the organization.

            Market risk represents the potential for losses that may result from changes in the value of a financial instrument as a result of changes in market conditions. The primary market risks that would impact the value of Ambac’s financial instruments are interest rate risk, basis risk (e.g. taxable interest rates relative to tax-exempt interest rates, discussed below) and credit spread risk. Senior managers in Ambac’s Portfolio Risk Management Group are responsible for monitoring risk limits and applying risk measurement methodologies.  The estimation of potential losses arising from adverse changes in market conditions is a key element in managing market risk. Ambac utilizes various systems, models and stress test scenarios to monitor and manage market risk. This process includes, where applicable, frequent analyses of parallel and non-parallel shifts in the yield curve, “Value-at-Risk”  (“VaR”) and changes in credit spreads. These models include estimates, made by management, which utilize current and historical market information. The valuation results from these models could differ materially from amounts that would actually be realized in the market. 

            Financial instruments that may be adversely affected by changes in interest rates consist primarily of investment securities, investment agreement liabilities, debentures, and certain derivative contracts (primarily interest rate swaps and futures) used for hedging purposes.

            Financial instruments that may be adversely affected by changes in basis include Ambac’s municipal interest rate swap portfolio. Ambac, through its affiliate Ambac Financial Services, L.P., is a provider of interest rate swaps to states, municipalities and their authorities and other entities in connection with their financings. Ambac Financial Services manages its business with the goal of being market neutral to changes in overall interest rates, while seeking to profit from retaining some basis risk. If actual or projected tax-exempt interest rates change in relation to taxable interest rates, Ambac will experience a mark-to-market gain or loss. Most municipal interest rate swaps transacted by Ambac Financial Services contain provisions that are designed to protect Ambac against certain forms of tax reform, thus mitigating its basis risk. The estimation of potential losses arising from adverse changes in market relationships, known as VaR, is a key element in management’s monitoring of basis risk for the municipal interest rate swap portfolio. Ambac has developed a VaR methodology to estimate potential losses over a specified holding period and based on certain probabilistic assessments. Ambac’s methodology estimates VaR using a 300-day historical “look back” period. This means that changes in market values are simulated using market inputs from the past 300 days. Since no single measure can capture all dimensions of market risk, Ambac supplements its VaR methodology by performing analyses of parallel and non-parallel shifts in yield curves and stress test scenarios which measure the potential impact of normal market conditions, which might cause abnormal volatility swings or disruptions of market relationships.

            Financial instruments that may be adversely affected by changes in credit spreads include Ambac’s outstanding structured credit derivative contracts and fixed income investment securities.  Ambac, through its affiliate, Ambac Credit Products, enters into structured credit derivative contracts. These contracts require Ambac Credit Products to make payments upon the occurrence of certain defined credit events relating to underlying obligations (generally a fixed income obligation). If credit spreads of the underlying obligations change, the market value of the related structured credit derivative changes. As such, Ambac Credit Products could experience mark-to-market gains or losses.  Market liquidity could also impact valuations.

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Table of Contents

Item 3.     Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk (Continued)

Changes in credit spreads are generally caused by changes in the market’s perception of the credit quality of the underlying obligations. Substantially all of Ambac Credit Product’s contracts are partially hedged with various financial institutions or structured with first loss protection. Such structuring mitigates Ambac Credit Product’s risk of loss and reduces the price volatility of these financial instruments. Personnel in Ambac’s Financial Control group monitor credit spread risk. Additionally, management models the potential impact of credit spread changes on the value of its credit derivative contracts.

Item 4.       Controls and Procedures

 

(a)

Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures. Ambac’s Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer completed an evaluation of the effectiveness of Ambac’s disclosure controls and procedures (as such term is defined in Rules 13a-14(c) and 15d-14(c) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), within 90 days prior to the filing date of this quarterly report (the “Evaluation Date”). Based on this evaluation, Ambac’s Chief Executive Officer and Ambac’s Chief Financial Officer have concluded that, as of the Evaluation Date, Ambac’s disclosure controls and procedures are effective in alerting them on a timely basis to material information relating to Ambac (including its consolidated subsidiaries) required to be included in Ambac’s reports filed or submitted under the Exchange Act.

 

 

 

 

(b)

Changes in Internal Controls. Since the Evaluation Date, there have not been any significant changes in Ambac’s internal controls or in other factors that could significantly affect such controls. There were no significant deficiencies or material weaknesses identified in the evaluation and therefore, no corrective actions were taken.

27


Table of Contents

PART II – OTHER INFORMATION

            Items 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are omitted either because they are inapplicable or because the answer to such question is negative.

Item 6 - Exhibits and Reports on Form 8-K

(a)

The following are annexed as exhibits:

 

 

 

 

Exhibit
Number

 

Description


 


 

 

 

 

99.11

 

Ambac Assurance Corporation and Subsidiaries Consolidated Unaudited Financial Statements as of September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001 and for the periods ended September 30, 2002 and 2001.

 

 

 

 

 

99.12

 

Certification of CFO Pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

 

 

 

 

 

99.13

 

Certification of CEO Pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

 

 

 

(b)

Reports on Form 8-K:

             On August 14, 2002, Ambac filed a Current Report on Form 8-K with statements under oath of the principal executive officer and the principal financial officer regarding facts and circumstances relating to Exchange Act filings.

             On October 17, 2002, Ambac filed a Current Report on Form 8-K with its October 16, 2002 press release containing unaudited financial information and accompanying discussion for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2002.

28


Table of Contents

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

 

AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

 

(Registrant)

 

 

Dated:  November 14, 2002

By:

/s/ FRANK J. BIVONA

 

 

 


 

 

 

Frank J. Bivona
Vice Chairman and Chief Financial
Officer  (Principal Financial and
Accounting Officer and Duly
Authorized Officer)

 

29


Table of Contents

Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
Certifications

I, Phillip B. Lassiter, certify that:

 

 

1.

I have reviewed this quarterly report on Form 10-Q of Ambac Financial Group, Inc;

 

 

 

 

2.

Based on my knowledge, this quarterly report does not contain any untrue statement of a material fact or omit to state a material fact necessary to make the statements made, in light of the circumstances under which such statements were made, not misleading with respect to the period covered by this quarterly report;

 

 

 

 

3.

Based on my knowledge, the financial statements, and other financial information included in this quarterly report, fairly present in all material respects the financial condition, results of operations and cash flows of the registrant as of, and for, the periods presented in this quarterly report;

 

 

 

 

4.

The registrant’s other certifying officers and I are responsible for establishing and maintaining disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Exchange Act Rules 13a-14 and 15d-14) for the registrant and we have:

 

 

 

 

 

a.

designed such disclosure controls and procedures to ensure that material information relating to the registrant, including its consolidated subsidiaries, is made known to us by others within those entities, particularly during the period in which this quarterly report is being prepared;

 

 

 

 

 

 

b.

evaluated the effectiveness of the registrant’s disclosure controls and procedures as of a date within 90 days prior to the filing date of this quarterly report (the “Evaluation Date”); and

 

 

 

 

 

 

c.

presented in this quarterly report our conclusions about the effectiveness of the disclosure controls and procedures based on our evaluation as of the Evaluation Date;

 

 

 

 

 

5.

The registrant’s other certifying officers and I have disclosed, based on our most recent evaluation, to the registrant’s auditors and the audit committee of registrant’s board of directors (or persons performing the equivalent function):

 

 

 

 

 

a.

all significant deficiencies in the design or operation of internal controls which could adversely affect the registrant’s ability to record, process, summarize and report financial data and have identified for the registrant’s auditors any material weakness in internal controls; and

 

 

 

 

 

 

b.

any fraud, whether or not material, that involves management or other employees who have significant role in the registrant’s internal controls; and

 

 

 

 

 

6.

The registrant’s other certifying officers and I have indicated in this quarterly report whether or not there were significant changes in internal controls or in other factors that could significantly affect internal controls subsequent to the date of our most recent evaluation, including any corrective actions with regard to significant deficiencies and material weaknesses.

 

 

 

 

By:

/s/ PHILLIP B. LASSITER

 

 

 


 

 

 

Phillip B. Lassiter
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

 

 

 

 

 

Date:  November 14, 2002

 

 

 

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Table of Contents

Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
Certifications

I, Frank J. Bivona, certify that

 

 

 

 

1.

I have reviewed this quarterly report on Form 10-Q of Ambac Financial Group, Inc;

 

 

 

 

2.

Based on my knowledge, this quarterly report does not contain any untrue statement of a material fact or omit to state a material fact necessary to make the statements made, in light of the circumstances under which such statements were made, not misleading with respect to the period covered by this quarterly report;

 

 

 

 

3.

Based on my knowledge, the financial statements, and other financial information included in this quarterly report, fairly present in all material respects the financial condition, results of operations and cash flows of the registrant as of, and for, the periods presented in this quarterly report;

 

 

 

 

4.

The registrant’s other certifying officers and I are responsible for establishing and maintaining disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Exchange Act Rules 13a-14 and 15d-14) for the registrant and we have:

 

 

 

 

 

a.

designed such disclosure controls and procedures to ensure that material information relating to the registrant, including its consolidated subsidiaries, is made known to us by others within those entities, particularly during the period in which this quarterly report is being prepared;

 

 

 

 

 

 

b.

evaluated the effectiveness of the registrant’s disclosure controls and procedures as of a date within 90 days prior to the filing date of this quarterly report (the “Evaluation Date”); and

 

 

 

 

 

 

c.

presented in this quarterly report our conclusions about the effectiveness of the disclosure controls and procedures based on our evaluation as of the Evaluation Date;

 

 

 

 

 

5.

The registrant’s other certifying officers and I have disclosed, based on our most recent evaluation, to the registrant’s auditors and the audit committee of registrant’s board of directors (or persons performing the equivalent function):

 

 

 

 

 

a.

all significant deficiencies in the design or operation of internal controls which could adversely affect the registrant’s ability to record, process, summarize and report financial data and have identified for the registrant’s auditors any material weakness in internal controls; and

 

 

 

 

 

 

b.

any fraud, whether or not material, that involves management or other employees who have significant role in the registrant’s internal controls; and

 

 

 

 

 

6.

The registrant’s other certifying officers and I have indicated in this quarterly report whether or not there were significant changes in internal controls or in other factors that could significantly affect internal controls subsequent to the date of our most recent evaluation, including any corrective actions with regard to significant deficiencies and material weaknesses.

 

 

 

 

By:

/s/ FRANK J. BIVONA

 

 

 


 

 

 

Frank J. Bivona
Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

 

 

 

 

 

Date:  November 14, 2002

 

 

 

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Table of Contents

INDEX TO EXHIBITS

Exhibit
Number

 

Description


 


 

 

 

 

99.11

 

Ambac Assurance Corporation and Subsidiaries Consolidated Unaudited Financial Statements as of September 30, 2002 and December 31, 2001 and for the periods ended September 30, 2002 and 2001.

 

 

 

 

 

99.12

 

Certification of CFO Pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

 

 

 

 

 

99.13

 

Certification of CEO Pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

32