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UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 

FORM 10-Q

 

[X] Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 

For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2004

 

or

 

[   ] Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 

Commission File Number 001-13672

 

THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in our charter)

 

Massachusetts

04-2599931

(State or other jurisdiction

(IRS Employer

of Incorporation)

Identification No.)

 

211 Main Street, Webster, Massachusetts

01570

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip Code)

 

Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (508) 943-9000

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.

Yes  X      No     

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an accelerated filer (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).

Yes  X      No     

 

As of July 30, 2004, the number of shares outstanding of the Registrant's common stock (excluding Treasury Shares) was 32,913,020.

<PAGE>  1

The Commerce Group, Inc.

 

Table of Contents

 

Part I - Financial Information

 
   

Page No.

   


     

Item 1. Financial Statements

   
     

Consolidated Balance Sheet at June 30, 2004 (Unaudited) and December 31, 2003

 

3

Consolidated Statement of Earnings and Comprehensive Income for the Three and Six

   

  Months Ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 (Unaudited)

 

4

Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows and Reconciliation of Net Earnings to Cash

   

  From Operating Activities for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 (Unaudited)

 

5

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

 

6

     

Item 2.

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and

   
 

Financial Condition

   
     

Business Overview

 

14

Results of Operations

 

17

Financial Condition

 

22

Forward-Looking Statements

 

24

     

Item 3.

Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk

 

25

     

Item 4.

Controls and Procedures

 

25

     

Part II - Other Information

   
     

Item 2.

Changes in Securities and Use of Proceeds

 

25

     

Item 4.

Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders

 

26

     

Item 6.

Exhibits and Reports on Form 8-K

 

26

     

Signature

 

27

<PAGE>  2

Part I - Financial Information

 

Item 1. Financial Statements

 

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Balance Sheet

June 30, 2004 and December 31, 2003

(Thousands of Dollars)

 
 

2004

 

2003

 


 


ASSETS

(Unaudited)

   

Investments

         

    Fixed maturities, at market (amortized cost: $1,621,137 and $1,478,737)

$

1,594,035 

 

$

1,497,731 

    Preferred stocks, at market (cost: $384,902 and $283,423)

 

380,783 

   

298,721 

    Common stocks, at market (cost: $97,307 and $95,412)

 

94,932 

   

105,523 

    Preferred stock mutual funds, at equity (cost: $51,316 and $50,795)

 

51,687 

   

54,274 

    Mortgage loans on real estate and collateral notes receivable (less

         

      allowance for possible loan losses of $369 and $379)

 

14,788 

   

16,395 

    Cash and cash equivalents

 

73,794 

   

215,541 

    Other investments, at market (cost: $44,503 and $38,826)

 

29,409 

   

22,914 

 


 


        Total investments

 

2,239,428 

   

2,211,099 

Accrued investment income

 

20,100 

   

19,308 

Premiums receivable (less allowance for doubtful receivables of $2,254)

 

446,418 

   

361,839 

Deferred policy acquisition costs

 

174,375 

   

153,605 

Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation

 

51,722 

   

52,997 

Residual market receivable

 

222,392 

   

192,743 

Due from reinsurers

 

124,656 

   

117,786 

Deferred income taxes

 

59,046 

   

33,240 

Current income taxes

 

6,790 

   

-- 

Receivable for investments sold

 

2,282 

   

6,972 

Other assets

 

17,312 

   

14,642 

 


 


        Total assets

$

3,364,521 

 

$

3,164,231 

 


 


           

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY

         

Liabilities:

         

    Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses

$

1,015,264 

 

$

957,353 

    Unearned premiums

 

943,157 

   

810,462 

    Bonds payable ($300,000 face less discount)

 

298,085 

   

297,984 

    Current income taxes

 

-- 

   

15,091 

    Deferred income

 

9,132 

   

7,946 

    Contingent commissions accrued

 

33,790 

   

37,887 

    Payable for securities purchased

 

16 

   

13,610 

    Other liabilities and accrued expenses

 

101,311 

   

107,297 

 


 


        Total liabilities

 

2,400,755 

   

2,247,630 

 


 


Minority interest

 

4,542 

   

4,390 

 


 


Stockholders' equity:

         

    Preferred stock, authorized 5,000,000 shares at $1.00 par value

 

-- 

   

-- 

    Common stock, authorized 100,000,000 shares at $.50 par value;

         

      40,270,010 and 38,629,664 shares issued

 

20,135 

   

19,315 

    Paid-in capital

 

118,125 

   

52,090 

    Net accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), net of income

         

      taxes (benefit) of $(11,703) and $15,664

 

(21,821)

   

29,083 

    Retained earnings

 

1,064,876 

   

997,610 

 


 


        Total stockholders' equity before treasury stock

 

1,181,315 

   

1,098,098 

    Treasury stock, 7,356,990 and 6,568,964 shares, at cost

 

(222,091)

   

(185,887)

 


 


        Total stockholders' equity

 

959,224 

   

912,211 

 


 


    Total liabilities, minority interest and stockholders' equity

$

3,364,521 

 

$

3,164,231 

 


 


           

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

<PAGE>  3

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statement of Earnings and Comprehensive Income

Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2004 and 2003

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Unaudited)

 
 

Three Months

 

Six Months

 


 


 

2004

 

2003

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


 


 


Revenues:

                     

    Direct premiums written

$

467,986 

 

$

415,787 

 

$

966,573 

 

$

864,581 

    Assumed premiums

 

43,492 

   

29,769 

   

77,570 

   

57,752 

    Ceded premiums

 

(65,719)

   

(60,081)

   

(120,710)

   

(109,823)

 


 


 


 


        Net premiums written

 

445,759 

   

385,475 

   

923,433 

   

812,510 

    Increase in unearned premiums

 

(41,248)

   

(35,206)

   

(123,354)

   

(124,254)

 


 


 


 


        Earned premiums

 

404,511 

   

350,269 

   

800,079 

   

688,256 

    Net investment income

 

27,894 

   

23,392 

   

55,709 

   

45,812 

    Premium finance and service fees

 

7,021 

   

6,631 

   

14,065 

   

13,245 

    Net realized investment gains (losses)

 

(8,602)

   

65,864 

   

11,857 

   

60,020 

    Other income

 

113 

   

-- 

   

113 

   

-- 

 


 


 


 


        Total revenues

 

430,937 

   

446,156 

   

881,823 

   

807,333 

 


 


 


 


                       

Expenses:

                     

    Losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

276,506 

   

269,211 

   

558,688 

   

543,605 

    Policy acquisition costs

 

98,200 

   

86,268 

   

190,424 

   

155,770 

    Interest expense & amortization of bond fees

 

4,512 

   

-- 

   

9,095 

   

-- 

 


 


 


 


        Total expenses

 

379,218 

   

355,479 

   

758,207 

   

699,375 

 


 


 


 


                       

Earnings before income taxes and minority interest

 

51,719 

   

90,677 

   

123,616 

   

107,958 

    Income taxes

 

14,152 

   

19,080 

   

34,904 

   

23,485 

 


 


 


 


Earnings before minority interest

 

37,567 

   

71,597 

   

88,712 

   

84,473 

    Minority interest in net earnings of subsidiary

 

(177)

   

(124)

   

(282)

   

(80)

 


 


 


 


NET EARNINGS

$

37,390 

 

$

71,473 

 

$

88,430 

 

$

84,393 

 


 


 


 


                       

Comprehensive income (loss)

$

(20,915)

 

$

75,057 

 

$

37,526 

 

$

91,482 

 


 


 


 


Net earnings per common share :

                     

    Basic

$

1.14 

 

$

2.24 

 

$

2.72 

 

$

2.64 

 


 


 


 


    Diluted

$

1.14 

 

$

2.22 

 

$

2.70 

 

$

2.62 

 


 


 


 


                       

Cash dividends paid per common share

$

0.33 

 

$

0.32 

 

$

0.65 

 

$

0.63 

 


 


 


 


                       

Weighted average number of common

                     

  shares outstanding:

                     

    Basic

32,684,245 

 

31,930,507 

 

32,484,585 

 

31,986,847 

 


 


 


 


    Diluted

32,906,206 

 

32,156,738 

 

32,692,519 

 

32,187,013 

 


 


 


 


               

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

<PAGE>  4

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows and Reconciliation

of Net Earnings to Cash From Operating Activities

Six Months Ended June 30, 2004 and 2003

(Thousands of Dollars)

(Unaudited)

 
 

2004

 

2003

 


 


Operating Activities:

         

        Premiums collected

$

839,171 

 

$

729,696 

        Net investment income received

 

52,878 

   

43,110 

        Premium finance and service fees received

 

14,065 

   

13,245 

        Losses and loss adjustment expenses paid

 

(509,481)

   

(491,304)

        Policy acquisition costs paid

 

(220,950)

   

(182,616)

        Federal income tax payments

 

(55,553)

   

(15,554)

        Interest paid

 

(8,925)

   

-- 

        Other income

 

113 

   

-- 

 


 


            Cash from operating activities

 

111,318 

   

96,577 

 


 


           

Investing Activities:

         

        Investment sales, repayments and maturities

 

1,249,518 

   

518,186 

        Mortgage loans and collateral notes receipts

 

2,418 

   

8,181 

        Investment purchases

 

(1,494,175)

   

(657,640)

        Mortgage loans and collateral notes originated

 

(800)

   

(531)

        Property and equipment purchases

 

(4,211)

   

(3,287)

        Other investing activities

 

4,104 

   

562 

 


 


            Cash for investing activities

 

(243,146)

   

(134,529)

 


 


           

Financing Activities:

         

        Dividends paid to stockholders

 

(21,164)

   

(20,157)

        Treasury stock purchases

 

-- 

   

(8,058)

        Capital stock issued

 

11,699 

   

2,607 

        Bond issue costs

 

(454)

   

-- 

 


 


            Cash for financing activities

 

(9,919)

   

(25,608)

 


 


           

    Decrease in cash and cash equivalents

 

(141,747)

   

(63,560)

    Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period

 

215,541 

   

206,315 

 


 


    Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period

$

73,794 

 

$

142,755 

 


 


           

Reconciliation of net earnings to cash from operating activities:

         

    Net earnings

$

88,430 

 

$

84,393 

    Adjustments to reconcile net earnings to cash from operating activities:

         

        Premiums receivable

 

(84,579)

   

(95,133)

        Deferred policy acquisition costs

 

(20,770)

   

(19,006)

        Residual market receivable

 

(29,649)

   

(15,152)

        Due from reinsurers

 

(6,870)

   

(13,276)

        Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

57,911 

   

77,622 

        Unearned premiums

 

132,695 

   

135,579 

        Current income taxes

 

(21,881)

   

15,932 

        Deferred income taxes

 

1,232 

   

(8,001)

        Deferred income

 

1,186 

   

(691)

        Contingent commissions

 

(4,097)

   

(11,358)

        Net realized investment gains

 

(11,857)

   

(60,020)

        Other - net

 

9,567 

   

5,688 

 


 


            Cash from operating activities

$

111,318 

 

$

96,577 

 


 


           

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

<PAGE>  5

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

 

1.    Organization and Interim Financial Statements

 

      Unless otherwise stated, "we," "our" or "us" means The Commerce Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Our consolidated financial statements include the accounts of The Commerce Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries. The Commerce Group, Inc. is a holding company and our operations are conducted through subsidiaries, the principal ones being The Commerce Insurance Company (Commerce), Citation Insurance Company (Citation), American Commerce Insurance Company (American Commerce), and Commerce West Insurance Company (Commerce West). We have eliminated significant intercompany accounts and transactions in consolidating these financial statements. Also, we have reclassified certain amounts for 2003 to conform with 2004 presentations.

 

      We have prepared these financial statements in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). In preparing these financial statements in conformity with GAAP, we are required to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at reporting dates and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting periods. Actual results will differ from these estimates and assumptions. We employ significant estimates and assumptions in the determination of deferred policy acquisition costs, unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (LAE), and accruals for contingent liabilities. Our significant accounting policies are presented in the notes to our consolidated financial statements in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003.

 

      Our interim financial statements do not include all of the disclosures required by GAAP for annual financial statements. In our opinion, we have included all adjustments, consisting of normal, recurring adjustments, considered necessary for a fair statement of the results for the interim periods. Operating results for the three and six month periods ended June 30, 2004 are not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected for the year ending December 31, 2004. These unaudited consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003.

 

2.    Stock-Based Compensation

 

      Pro forma net earnings and earnings per share as if we had applied the fair value method of accounting for our stock-based compensation plans accounted for under the intrinsic value method for the three and six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

Three Months

 

Six Months

 


 


 

2004

 

2003

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


 


 


                       

Net earnings as reported

$

37,390

 

$

71,473

 

$

88,430

 

$

84,393

Deduct: Stock-based employee compensation expense

                     

  determined under fair value method for awards

                     

  granted without expense recognition

 

--

   

451

   

452

   

903

 


 


 


 


                       

Pro forma net earnings

$

37,390

 

$

71,022

 

$

87,978

 

$

83,490

 


 


 


 


Basic earnings per share:

                     

    As reported

$

1.14

 

$

2.24

 

$

2.72

 

$

2.64

 


 


 


 


    Pro forma

$

1.14

 

$

2.22

 

$

2.71

 

$

2.61

 


 


 


 


Diluted earnings per share:

                     

    As reported

$

1.14

 

$

2.22

 

$

2.70

 

$

2.62

 


 


 


 


    Pro forma

$

1.14

 

$

2.21

 

$

2.69

 

$

2.59

 


 


 


 


               

      All awards accounted for under the intrinsic value method were earned and fully vested as of the end of the first quarter of 2004; therefore, no expense would have been recognized in the second quarter under the fair value method.

<PAGE>  6

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Continued)

 

3.    Comprehensive Income

 

      Our comprehensive income for the three and six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 follows:

 
 

Three Months

 

Six Months

 


 


 

2004

 

2003

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


 


 


                       

Net earnings

$

37,390 

 

$

71,473 

 

$

88,430 

 

$

84,393 

 


 


 


 


                       

Other comprehensive income, net of taxes:

                     

    Change in unrealized gains (losses) (a)

 

(51,706)

   

12,782 

   

(36,664)

   

17,942 

    Reclassification adjustment (b)

 

(6,599)

   

(9,198)

   

(14,240)

   

(10,853)

 


 


 


 


Other comprehensive income (loss)

 

(58,305)

   

3,584 

   

(50,904)

   

7,089 

 


 


 


 


Comprehensive income (loss)

$

(20,915)

 

$

75,057 

 

$

37,526 

 

$

91,482 

 


 


 


 


               

___________________

             

a.

Unrealized gains (losses) are net of income tax expenses (benefits) of $(27,790) and $6,883 for the three months ended 2004 and 2003, respectively, and $(19,699) and $9,661 for the six months ended 2004 and 2003, respectively.

   

b.

Reclassification adjustments are net of income tax benefits of $(3,553) and $(4,953) for the three months ended 2004 and 2003, respectively, and $(7,668) and $(5,844) for the six months ended 2004 and 2003, respectively.

   

4.    Earnings Per Share (EPS)

 

      Basic EPS is based on the weighted average number of common shares outstanding. Diluted EPS is based on the weighted average number of common shares outstanding adjusted by the number of additional common shares that would have been outstanding had the potentially dilutive common shares been issued and reduced by the number of common shares we could have repurchased from the proceeds of the potentially dilutive shares. Our only dilutive instruments are stock options outstanding. We had 3,050,259 and 4,782,894 stock options outstanding at June 30, 2004 and 2003, respectively. Basic and diluted EPS for the three and six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 follow:

       
 

Three Months

 

Six Months

 


 


 

2004

 

2003

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


 


 


                       

Net earnings for basic and diluted EPS

$

37,390

 

$

71,473

 

$

88,430

 

$

84,393

 


 


 


 


Common share information:

                     

    Average shares outstanding for basic EPS

32,684,245

 

31,930,507

 

32,484,585

 

31,986,847

    Dilutive effect of stock options

221,961

 

226,231

 

207,934

 

200,166

 


 


 


 


    Average shares outstanding for dilutive EPS

32,906,206

 

32,156,738

 

32,692,519

 

32,187,013

 


 


 


 


                       

Basic EPS

$

1.14

 

$

2.24

 

$

2.72

 

$

2.64

 


 


 


 


Diluted EPS

$

1.14

 

$

2.22

 

$

2.70

 

$

2.62

 


 


 


 


                       

      Diluted EPS excludes stock options with exercise prices greater than the average market price of our common stock during the periods, because their inclusion would be anti-dilutive. The number of anti-dilutive options was 1,575,000 and 750,000 for the three months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003, respectively, and 1,575,000 and 2,622,380 for the six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003, respectively.

<PAGE>  7

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Continued)

 

5.     Realized and Unrealized Investment Gains and Losses

 

Realized Investment Gains and Losses

 

      Net realized investment gains (losses) for the three and six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

Three Months

 

Six Months

 


 


 

2004

 

2003

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


 


 


Other Than Temporary Impairment losses:

                     

Fixed maturity securities

$

--

 

$

--

 

$

(1,565)

 

$

(8,928)

Equity securities

 

--

   

(493)

   

(203)

   

(7,021)

 


 


 


 


    Total other than temporary impairment losses

 

-- 

   

(493)

   

(1,768)

   

(15,949)

 


 


 


 


Transaction net gains (losses):

                     

Fixed maturity securities

 

(6,387)

   

12,652 

   

3,270 

   

16,025 

Equity securities

 

3,236 

   

20,092 

   

12,182 

   

22,822 

Venture capital fund

 

(184)

   

(463)

   

1,515 

   

(1,051)

Other investments

 

(8)

   

(60)

   

(196)

   

(50)

 


 


 


 


    Transaction net gains (losses)

 

(3,343)

   

32,221 

   

16,771 

   

37,746 

 


 


 


 


Equity in earnings (losses) of closed-end

                     

  preferred stock mutual funds

 

(5,259)

   

34,136 

   

(3,146)

   

38,223 

 


 


 


 


    Net realized investment gains (losses)

$

(8,602)

 

$

65,864 

 

$

11,857 

 

$

60,020 

 


 


 


 


                       

Unrealized Investment Gains and Losses

 

      The change in net unrealized gains (losses) on our fixed maturity and equity securities, excluding the impact of minority interest, from December 31, 2003 to June 30, 2004 follows:

 
 

June 30,

 

Dec. 31,

   
 

2004

 

2003

 

Change

 


 


 


Net unrealized gains (losses):

               

Fixed maturity securities

$

(27,103)

 

$

18,994

 

$

(46,097)

Equity securities

 

(6,493)

   

25,882

   

(32,375)

 


 


 


    Net unrealized gains (losses)

$

(33,596)

 

$

44,876

 

$

(78,472)

 


 


 


<PAGE>  8

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Continued)

 

5.    Realized and Unrealized Investment Gains and Losses (continued)

 

      Gross unrealized losses on our equity and fixed maturity securities at June 30, 2004 by duration of unrealized loss follow:

 

0 - 6

6 - 12

12 - 24

Over 24

Total

Months

Months

Months

Months






Total equity and fixed maturity

  securities:

Number of positions

319 

269 

25 

23 






Total fair value

$

1,439,707 

$

1,266,250 

$

112,979 

$

59,492 

$

986 

Total amortized cost

1,494,349 

1,311,632 

118,170 

63,550 

997 






Unrealized loss

$

(54,642)

$

(45,382)

$

(5,191)

$

(4,058)

$

(11)






Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

3.8% 

3.6% 

4.6% 

6.8% 

1.1% 






Equity securities:

Number of positions

72

61 






Total fair value

$

307,422 

$

283,076 

$

11,076 

$

13,270 

$

Total cost

321,758 

295,834 

11,856 

14,068 






Unrealized loss

$

(14,336)

$

(12,758)

$

(780)

$

(798)

$






Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

4.7% 

4.5% 

7.0% 

6.0% 






Total fixed maturity securities:

Number of positions

247

208 

20 

17 






Total fair value

$

1,132,285 

$

983,174 

$

101,903 

$

46,222 

$

986 

Total amortized cost

1,172,591 

1,015,798 

106,314 

49,482 

997 






Unrealized loss

$

(40,306)

$

(32,624)

$

(4,411)

$

(3,260)

$

(11)






Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

3.6% 

3.3% 

4.3% 

7.1% 

1.1% 






      Approximately $32.5 million of the $40.3 million in total unrealized losses on fixed maturity securities, including all of the fixed maturity securities in an unrealized loss position over 12 months, were from investment grade securities. We do not believe any of these fixed maturities warrant an other-than-temporary write-down as their fair values were below cost primarily due to general market conditions, not due to specific credit concerns of the obligor, and we intend to hold these securities to maturity.

      The remaining approximately $7.8 million of the $40.3 million in total unrealized losses on fixed maturity securities was from below investment grade securities. All of these below investment grade securities have been in an unrealized loss position for less than 12 months. Approximately $7.1 million of the unrealized losses on below investment grade securities were due to general market conditions and increased credit risk within the airline industry. We held various collateralized airline securities with a total amortized cost of $64.5 million at June 30, 2004. We believe these unrealized losses are temporary in nature, that the obligor will continue to meet its obligations and we intend to hold these securities to their maturity. Management will continue to monitor these holdings closely.

      We reviewed all of our security investments for other-than-temporary declines in market value. We determined that the values of these securities were temporarily impaired and no write-down was necessary.

<PAGE>  9

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Continued)

 

6.    Unpaid Losses and LAE

 

      Liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at June 30, 2004 and December 31, 2003 follow:

 
 

June 30,

 

Dec. 31,

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


           

Net voluntary unpaid losses and LAE

$

786,422 

 

$

760,156 

Voluntary salvage and subrogation recoverable

 

(98,001)

   

(100,988)

Assumed unpaid loss and LAE reserves from CAR

 

173,845 

   

155,874 

Assumed salvage and subrogation recoverable from CAR

 

(22,699)

   

(22,699)

 


 


    Total voluntary and assumed unpaid loss and LAE reserves

 

839,567 

   

792,343 

Adjustment for ceded unpaid loss and LAE reserves

 

184,697 

   

174,010 

Adjustment for ceded salvage and subrogation recoverable

 

(9,000)

   

(9,000)

 


 


    Total unpaid losses and LAE

$

1,015,264 

 

$

957,353 

 


 


           

7.    Bonds Payable

 

      On December 9, 2003, we issued $300 million face value of senior unsecured and unsubordinated debt (the Senior Notes) which matures December 9, 2013. The Senior Notes were issued at 99.3% to yield 6.04%, and bear a coupon interest rate of 5.95%, payable semi-annually on June 9 and December 9 beginning 2004. The fair market value of the Senior Notes at June 30, 2004 was $298.0 million.

 

8.    Ceded Reinsurance Recoverable

 

      Ceded reinsurance recoverable amounts are included in unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums. At June 30, 2004 and December 31, 2003, $175,697 and $165,010 were included in unpaid losses and loss adjustment expense amounts, respectively. At June 30, 2004 and December 31, 2003, $122,598 and $113,245 were included in the unearned premium liability amounts, respectively.

 

9.    Contingencies Related to Our Business in Massachusetts

 

      On January 5, 2004, the Massachusetts Attorney General (AG) filed an appeal with the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts arguing that the Massachusetts Division of Insurance (DOI) "wrongly imposed a 2.5% increase" in average personal automobile premiums for 2004. According to the AG, ". . .for the second consecutive year, the DOI has, without justification, ruled in favor of an increase in auto insurance rates that will hurt Massachusetts drivers." We cannot predict whether the court will rule on the issue or if the AG's appeal will be successful in any respect, and if so, whether it will have a material impact on us.

 

      Member companies of Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers (CAR) have joint and several liabilities for the obligations of CAR, the Massachusetts-mandated personal automobile reinsurance mechanism that enables us and other participating insurers to reinsure in CAR any risk. If one member of CAR fails to pay its assessments, the remaining members of CAR will be required to pay the pro-rata share of the member who fails to pay its obligations. As of June 30, 2004, we were not aware of any CAR member company which has failed to meet its obligations.

 

      In April 2004, the Massachusetts Commissioner of Insurance issued a letter instructing CAR to develop and submit to her rules for the reform of the residual market system in order to introduce an assigned risk plan, and on June 30, 2004, CAR submitted to the Commissioner its proposed changes to the CAR Rules of Operations. The proposed changes to the residual market system are discussed in more detail elsewhere in this report. See "Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial Condition."

 

      The DOI held a hearing on July 22, 2004 to afford all interested parties an opportunity to provide testimony regarding the above noted rule amendments proposed by CAR. Numerous parties, including the Massachusetts Attorney General's Office, provided testimony. The Attorney General's testimony suggested numerous changes and additions to the CAR proposal, some of which may require the development of additional or amended CAR rules. We cannot predict

<PAGE>  10

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Continued)

 

9.    Contingencies Related to Our Business in Massachusetts (continued)

 

whether the Commissioner will approve the rules as presented by CAR. We also cannot predict whether or how the Commissioner may respond to the Attorney General's proposed changes or other testimony presented at the hearing.

 

      As proposed by CAR, the first phase of the residual market system reform would be effective for the period from July 1, 2004 through December 31, 2004. If the Commissioner were to adopt all of the rule amendments entirely as proposed by CAR for that phase, we estimate that we would incur additional expense for the final six months of 2004 of approximately $2.4 million before taxes, and an additional expense in 2005 of approximately $1.2 million before taxes. Our estimate is based on the limited information available to us at this time and dependent upon various assumptions, including assumptions regarding the strategy of our competitors. As a result, the actual impact that the first phase of the residual market reform may have on our operating results may differ significantly from our estimate.

 

      We believe it is premature to attempt to estimate the impact that the remaining phases of the proposed residual market reform may have on our operating results for 2005 and subsequent years, primarily because final rules and procedures have not yet been fully developed for the implementation of the proposed residual market system during those years and therefore we cannot reasonably predict the strategies that other companies may pursue in the proposed residual market system. We also believe that it is not appropriate to extrapolate, to 2005 or beyond, our estimate of the impact on our operating results of the 2004 phase of the transition, as the proposed rules for 2005 and subsequent years contain numerous features that differ significantly from those proposed for the 2004 phase of the transition.

 

      We intend to review and, if necessary, revise our business strategies in response to these initiatives as they are implemented. We cannot predict whether our efforts will be successful or whether the initiatives as implemented will affect our competitive position or financial performance other than as described above.

 

10.    Segments

 

      Selected segment information for the three and six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 follows:

 
     

Earnings (Losses)

   
     

Before Income Taxes

 

Identifiable

 

Revenue

 

(Benefits)

 

Assets

 


 


 


Three Months Ended:

               

2004:

               

Property and casualty insurance:

               

    Massachusetts

$

370,814

 

$

66,252 

 

$

2,995,465

    Other than Massachusetts

 

59,910

   

(2,687)

   

310,829

Real estate and commercial lending

 

190

   

190 

   

15,482

Corporate and other

 

23

   

(12,213)

   

42,745

 


 


 


    Consolidated

$

430,937

 

$

51,542 

 

$

3,364,521

 


 


 


2003:

               

Property and casualty insurance:

               

    Massachusetts

$

385,105

 

$

91,246 

 

$

2,402,520

    Other than Massachusetts

 

60,685

   

4,685 

   

322,978

Real estate and commercial lending

 

366

   

366 

   

20,209

Corporate and other

 

--

   

(5,744)

   

15,390

 


 


 


    Consolidated

$

446,156

 

$

90,553 

 

$

2,761,097

 


 


 


<PAGE>  11

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Continued)

 

10.    Segments (continued)

 
     

Earnings (Losses)

   
     

Before Income Taxes

 

Identifiable

 

Revenue

 

(Benefits)

 

Assets

 


 


 


Six Months Ended:

               

2004:

               

Property and casualty insurance:

               

    Massachusetts

$

760,794

 

$

134,809 

 

$

2,995,465

    Other than Massachusetts

 

120,599

   

14,341 

   

310,829

Real estate and commercial lending

 

400

   

400 

   

15,482

Corporate and other

 

30

   

(26,216)

   

42,745

 


 


 


    Consolidated

$

881,823

 

$

123,334 

 

$

3,364,521

 


 


 


2003:

               

Property and casualty insurance:

               

    Massachusetts

$

696,654

 

$

107,767 

 

$

2,402,520

    Other than Massachusetts

 

109,833

   

3,730 

   

322,978

Real estate and commercial lending

 

845

   

845 

   

20,209

Corporate and other

 

1

   

(4,464)

   

15,390

 


 


 


    Consolidated

$

807,333

 

$

107,878 

 

$

2,761,097

 


 


 


                 

11.    Significant Transactions and Changes since December 31, 2003

 

      We record our expenses related to stock options and book value awards (BVAs) in two separate line items on our income statement - losses and loss adjustment expenses and policy acquisition costs. The stock option and BVA expenses recorded in each line item for the three and six months ended 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

Three Months

 

Six Months

 


 


 

2004

 

2003

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


 


 


                       

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

$

4,972

 

$

3,774

 

$

10,932

 

$

2,657

Policy acquisition costs

 

4,237

   

3,229

   

9,255

   

2,268

 


 


 


 


    Total stock option and BVA expenses

$

9,209

 

$

7,003

 

$

20,187

 

$

4,925

 


 


 


 


                       

      The market price for our common stock and our financial results directly affect our expense related to stock options and BVAs. Our stock option expense represents options granted to both agents and employees. An increase in the market value of our stock will increase the expense we recognize for options subject to variable accounting. Similarly, an increase in our net income will increase the value of, and therefore the expense we recognize for, outstanding BVAs.

 

      At December 31, 2003, we had 1,812,672 employee stock options outstanding under our Incentive Compensation Plan. During the six months ended June 30, 2004, 1,390,288 of these options were exercised, leaving an outstanding balance of 422,384 at June 30, 2004 for all employee options. Only 18,442 of these options continue to be accounted for under variable accounting rules under which we recognize expense. Stock option activity accelerated in the second quarter primarily because the options granted in 2001 vested and became exercisable on April 6, 2004. In addition, 1,169,505 options under the American Commerce Agents' Plan were exercised during 2004, leaving an outstanding balance of 2,627,875 options at June 30, 2004. We issued 1,489,111 BVAs under the Incentive Compensation Plan in 2004. Our expenses related to BVAs through June 30, 2004 and 2003 were $11.0 million and $4.7 million, respectively.

 

Premiums Receivable

 

      Premiums receivable increased $84,579, or 23.4%, since December 31, 2003. The increase is primarily due to our premium growth and the timing of the payments received by December 31, 2003 for business with effective dates of 2004.

<PAGE>  12

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Continued)

 

11.    Significant Changes since December 31, 2003 (continued)

 

Unearned Premiums

 

      Unearned premiums increased $132,695, or 16.4%, since December 31, 2003. This was primarily due to an increase in personal automobile written premiums coupled with the seasonality of the policy effective dates. The total amount of a policy's premium is recorded as written premium on the first day the policy is effective; however, the policy premium is earned over the ensuing year.

 

Paid-in Capital and Treasury Stock

 

      Paid-in capital increased $66,035, or 126.8%, and treasury stock increased $36,204, or 19.5%, since December 31, 2003. Both increases were the result of stock option exercises during 2004. Non-cash transactions involving the exercise of stock options by our officers and agents accounted for $54,525 of the increase in paid-in capital and all of the increase in treasury stock.

 

Net Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)

 

      Net accumulated other comprehensive income decreased $50,904, or 175.0%, since December 31, 2003. This change is due to unrealized losses within our investment holdings at June 30, 2004, primarily due to higher long-term interest rates.

 

12.    Subsequent Event

 

      On June 30, 2004, our 65% one-year quota share reinsurance program expired. This program covers all non-automobile property and liability business, except umbrella policies. This program has been extended another year, effective July 1, 2004, with the primary change in terms being an increase in the quota share rate to 70%. The new agreement is filed as Exhibit 10.33 to this Form 10-Q.

<PAGE>  13

Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial Condition

 

Unless otherwise stated, "we," "our" or "us" means The Commerce Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries. "Commerce" refers to The Commerce Insurance Company, "Commerce West" refers to Commerce West Insurance Company, "American Commerce" refers to American Commerce Insurance Company, "Citation" refers to Citation Insurance Company, and "AHC" refers to ACIC Holding Co., Inc. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all references to "quarters ended" are for our fiscal quarter, which ends June 30, and dollar amounts in all tables are in thousands, except per share data.

 

Business Overview

 

      The following discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in this Form 10-Q and with our Management's Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial Condition in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003.

 

      We provide personal and commercial property and casualty insurance in Massachusetts primarily and in other states. Our core product lines are personal automobile, homeowners, and commercial automobile insurance. We market our products exclusively through our network of independent agents. Our primary business strategy is to focus on the personal automobile insurance market in Massachusetts and to grow by increasing the proportion of our business written in other states in which we currently have a significant presence, primarily from Commerce West and American Commerce.

 

      We manage our business in four reportable segments: property and casualty insurance - Massachusetts, property and casualty insurance - other than Massachusetts, real estate and commercial lending, and corporate and other.

 

      Our ability to capitalize on our business strengths and implement our strategies is subject to particular risks. For example, because we are primarily a personal automobile insurance carrier, adverse developments in this industry could negatively affect us more than insurers that are more diversified across multiple business lines. Additionally, the concentration of our business in Massachusetts makes us more susceptible to any adverse development in the prevailing legislative, regulatory, economic, demographic, competitive and other conditions, including weather-related events, and adverse judicial decisions in Massachusetts, and could make it more costly or difficult for us to conduct our business. Our affinity group marketing programs provide members of participating groups and associates with a convenient means of purchasing discounted private passenger automobile insurance. We would lose a significant avenue for offering our existing affinity group discounts and our sales of personal automobile insurance products in Massachusetts would likely decline, if our affinity relationship with the AAA Clubs of Massachusetts was substantially changed or terminated and we are unable to devise and implement effective mitigation measures. The AAA arrangements have rolling three-year terms, and a AAA Club may terminate upon a minimum of two years' written notice. If American Commerce's relationship with one or more large AAA clubs terminates, then American Commerce would lose a substantial portion of its business, which could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.

 

      On January 5, 2004, the Massachusetts Attorney General (AG) filed an appeal with the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts arguing that the Massachusetts Division of Insurance (DOI) "wrongly imposed a 2.5% increase" in average personal automobile premiums for 2004. According to the AG, ". . .for the second consecutive year, the DOI has, without justification, ruled in favor of an increase in auto insurance rates that will hurt Massachusetts drivers." We cannot predict whether the court will rule on the issue or if the AG's appeal will be successful in any respect, and if so, whether it will have a material impact on us.

 

Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers

 

      A significant aspect of our automobile insurance business relates to our interaction with Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers (CAR). CAR is a reinsurance mechanism mandated in Massachusetts, which enables us and the other participating insurers to reinsure any automobile risk that an insurer perceives to be under-priced. Since its inception, CAR has annually generated significant underwriting losses, primarily in the personal automobile pool. All companies writing automobile insurance in Massachusetts share in the underwriting results of CAR business for their respective product line or lines.

 

      An insurer's proportionate share of the CAR deficit is allocated based on a formula called a participation ratio. Under current regulations, an insurer's share of the CAR deficit is first based on its market share for retained automobile risks for the particular pool. An insurer's share is then adjusted by a utilization formula, such that, in general, its participation ratio is adversely affected if its relative use of CAR reinsurance exceeds that of the Massachusetts industry, and its participation ratio is favorably affected if its relative use of CAR reinsurance is less than that of the Massachusetts industry. The current formula also contains a provision whereby certain high risk or under-priced business, if reinsured through CAR, is excluded in determining an insurer's participation ratio. Finally, for the personal automobile CAR pool, an insurer's participation ratio may be affected by credits received for not reinsuring through CAR, automobile ri sks in selected under-priced classes

<PAGE>  14

and territories. An insurer's participation ratio will be favorably affected if its relative use of credits exceeds that of the Massachusetts industry. Credit values are set annually by CAR. For our June 30, 2004 results, our private passenger participation ratio in the estimated CAR deficit for the policy year 2004 CAR deficit was 24.0%. Our Massachusetts market share was 28.6% as of May 2004, based on the most recently available data.

 

      Member companies of CAR have joint and several liabilities for the obligations of CAR. If one member of CAR fails to pay its assessments, the remaining members of CAR will be required to pay the pro-rata share of the member who fails to pay its obligations. As of June 30, 2004, we were not aware of any CAR member company who has failed to meet its obligations.

 

      In April 2004, the Massachusetts Commissioner of Insurance issued a letter instructing CAR to develop and submit to her rules for the reform of the residual market system. Under the current residual market system in Massachusetts, an insurer must write a policy for practically all drivers who seek one, but an insurer can choose to retain that risk in its underwriting results or cede the financial risk to CAR, with the losses suffered by CAR being shared among all insurers based upon the participation ratio as described above. In addition, the system in Massachusetts today involves the random, involuntary assignment to insurers of agents who are unable to obtain voluntary contractual relationships with any insurer. An involuntarily placed agent generally is referred to as exclusive representative producer (ERP). The Commissioner's April 2004 letter directed CAR to develop a so-called assigned risk plan, which is a residual market system that allows insur ers to refuse to write a policy of insurance for a driver. Under the assigned risk plan system, if an insurer declines to write insurance voluntarily for a driver, the driver is randomly and involuntarily assigned to an insurer, which then is required to write a policy for that driver and retain that risk in its underwriting results. We filed a copy of the Commissioner's 2004 letter to CAR as an exhibit to our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2004.

 

      On June 29, 2004, CAR approved proposed changes to the CAR Rules of Operations. The proposed changes, entitled CAR Bulletin # 782 - Proposed Changes to Rules of Operation, dated June 30, 2004, were submitted to the Commissioner and can be found on CAR's website at the following internet address: www.commauto.com/bulletins/bulletins/2004/bulletin_782.pdf. The proposed rule changes would provide for the transition from the current residual market system to the proposed assigned risk plan. The assigned risk plan as proposed by CAR would be implemented for certain risks in 2006, with full implementation occurring in 2008. The first phase of the proposed transition would, for policies effective during the period from July 1, 2004 through December 31, 2004, involve separating a group of so-called high loss ratio ERPs, allowing insurers to cede the business written by that group of ERPs without additional impact to the insurer's participation ratio, and apport ioning the underwriting results of this group based on the participation ratio methodology currently in existence.

 

      Subsequent phases of the proposed transition, to be effective beginning in 2005 and through 2007 would involve, among other changes:

 

(1)

requiring that companies with 2003 market shares of 7% or more, which would include Commerce, service the business written by high loss ratio ERPs in exchange for a fee and an opportunity to earn bonuses for improvements in that ERP's loss ratio;

(2)

apportioning the underwriting results of all ERP business written through CAR based on a company's previous year's voluntary market share;

(3)

allowing insurers and ERPs to enter into voluntary contracts for a portion of the risks written by that agency, with the remainder placed with the ERP's previously assigned servicing carrier; and,

(4)

a gradual movement of business into the assigned risk plan.

      The Massachusetts Division of Insurance (DOI) held a hearing on July 22, 2004 to afford all interested parties an opportunity to provide testimony regarding the above noted rule amendments proposed by CAR. We and numerous other parties, including other insurers, agents, consumer advocates and the Massachusetts Attorney General's Office, provided testimony. In our testimony, we advocated that the Commissioner reject the proposed rules, arguing that the rules were not consistent with Massachusetts law and raised various public policy concerns. The Attorney General's testimony suggested numerous changes and additions to the CAR proposal, some of which may require the development of additional or amended CAR rules. A copy of the Attorney General's testimony is attached as Exhibit 99 to this report. We cannot predict whether the Commissioner will approve the rules as presented by CAR. We also cannot predict whether or how the Commissioner may respond to the Attorney General's proposed changes or other testimony presented at the hearing.

      As proposed by CAR, the first phase of the residual market system reform - dealing with the ceding and allocation of so-called high loss ratio ERP business - would be effective for the period from July 1, 2004 through December 31, 2004. If the Commissioner were to adopt all of the rule amendments entirely as proposed by CAR for that phase, we estimate that

<PAGE>  15

we would incur additional expense for the final six months of 2004 of approximately $2.4 million before taxes, and an additional expense in 2005 of approximately $1.2 million before taxes. Our estimate is based on the limited information available to us at this time and dependent upon various assumptions, including assumptions regarding the strategy of our competitors. As a result, the actual impact that the first phase of the residual market reform may have on our operating results may differ significantly from our estimate.

 

      We believe it is premature to attempt to estimate the impact that the remaining phases of the proposed residual market reform may have on our operating results for 2005 and subsequent years, primarily because final rules and procedures have not yet been fully developed for the implementation of the proposed residual market system during those years and therefore we cannot reasonably predict the strategies that other companies may pursue in the proposed residual market system. We also believe that it is not appropriate to extrapolate, to 2005 or beyond, our estimate of the impact on our operating results of the 2004 phase of the transition, as the proposed rules for 2005 and subsequent years contain numerous features that differ significantly from those proposed for the 2004 phase of the transition.

 

      We intend to review and, if necessary, revise our business strategies in response to these initiatives as they are implemented. We cannot predict whether our efforts will be successful or whether the initiatives as implemented will affect our competitive position or financial performance other than as described above.

 

Our Revenues and Expenses

 

      Our revenue principally reflects:

 

*

earned premiums, consisting of:

-

premiums that we receive from sales by our agents of property and casualty insurance policies, primarily personal automobile, homeowners and commercial automobile, which we refer to as direct premiums written, plus

-

premiums we receive from insurance policies that we assume, primarily from Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers, or CAR, which we refer to as assumed premiums, less

-

the portion of our premiums that is ceded to CAR and other reinsurers, which we refer to as ceded premiums, less

-

the change in the portion of premiums that will not be recognized as income for accounting purposes until a future period, which we refer to as unearned premiums;

*

investment income that we earn on our invested assets;

*

premium finance charges and service fee income that we earn in connection with the billing and deferral of premium payments; and,

*

realized investment gains and losses.

      Our expenses principally reflect:

*

incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses (which we sometimes refer to as LAE), including estimates for losses incurred during the period but not yet reported to us and changes in estimates from prior periods related to direct and assumed business, less the portion of those incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses that are ceded to other insurers; and

*

policy acquisition costs, including agent compensation and general and administrative costs, such as salaries and benefits, and advertising that are not deferred for accounting purposes to a future period.

Measurement of Results

      We evaluate our operations by monitoring key measures of growth and profitability. We measure our growth by examining our direct premiums written as well as increases in exposures and policies. We generally measure our operating results in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) by examining our net earnings, return on equity (ROE), and our loss and LAE, underwriting expense and combined ratios on a consolidated basis. Our key measures include:

<PAGE>  16

*

Return on Equity. Return on equity is net earnings divided by stockholders' equity at the beginning of the period.

*

Direct Premiums Written. Direct premiums written is the sum of the total policy premiums, net of cancellations, associated with policies underwritten and issued by our insurance subsidiaries. We use direct premiums written, which includes premiums that we cede to CAR and other reinsurers, as a measure of the underlying growth of our insurance business from period to period.

*

Direct Earned Premiums. Direct earned premiums are the portion of direct premiums written over the preceding twelve-month period equal to the expired portion of policies and recognized as income during an accounting period.

*

Investment Income. Investment income represents earnings on our investment portfolio. We rely on after-tax investment income as a significant source of net earnings since we generally achieve a combined ratio (see below) of slightly less than 100%.

*

Loss and LAE Ratio. The loss and LAE ratio is the percentage of losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred to earned premiums. We calculate this ratio net of our reinsurance recoveries. We use this ratio as a measure of the overall underwriting profitability of the insurance business we write and to assess the adequacy of our pricing.

*

Underwriting Expense Ratio. The underwriting expense ratio is the percentage of underwriting expenses to net premiums written. Underwriting expenses are the aggregate of policy acquisition costs, including commissions, and the portion of administrative, general and other expenses attributable to underwriting operations. In addition, underwriting expenses are grossed-up for any change in deferred acquisition costs.

*

Combined Ratio. The combined ratio is the sum of the loss and LAE ratio and the underwriting expense ratio and measures a company's overall underwriting profit. If the combined ratio is at or above 100%, an insurance company cannot be profitable without investment income, and may not be profitable if investment income is insufficient. We use the combined ratio in evaluating our overall underwriting profitability and for comparing our profitability to our competitors' profitability.

Periods Ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 Results of Operations

Consolidated Results

      Our consolidated quarterly net earnings and ROE decreased significantly compared to the quarter ended 2003. Our decrease in quarterly net earnings of $34.1 million resulted in a decrease in ROE from 9.1% for the 2003 quarter to 3.8% in the current quarter. The decrease in net earnings is primarily due to a $74.5 million negative change in net realized investment gains from the 2003 quarter, partially offset by a $54.2 million increase in earned premiums and an improvement in our loss and LAE ratio.

      Our consolidated year-to-date net earnings increase of $4.0 million over 2003 resulted in a year-to-date decrease in ROE from 10.7% in 2003 to 9.7% in 2004, a much smaller decline in ROE than on a quarterly basis. The year-to-date increase in net earnings over 2003 was largely driven by an increase in earned premiums of $111.8 million and an improvement in our loss and LAE ratio.

      Our second quarter GAAP consolidated combined ratio was 91.7%, compared to 100.5% for 2003. This decrease was the result of decreases in the loss and LAE ratio and the underwriting expense ratio. Our loss and LAE ratio for the second quarter decreased to 68.4% from 76.9% in 2003. This improvement was primarily the result of a current year increase in average earned premium revenue per automobile and a decline in claim frequency for personal automobile physical damage. Our underwriting expense ratio decreased to 23.3% in the current period, as compared to 23.6% for 2003. This improvement was primarily the net result of lower commission rates mandated for 2004 policy year Massachusetts personal automobile policies, partially offset by higher accrued contingent commissions. The quarterly underwriting expense ratios represent policy acquisition costs grossed-up for the increase in deferred acquisition costs of $5.8 million for 2004 and $4.7 million for 2003, the result of which is divided by net premiums written.

      Our GAAP consolidated combined ratio for the six month period was 92.7%, compared to 100.5% for 2003. This decrease was the result of a decrease in our loss and LAE ratio, partially offset by an increase in our underwriting expense

<PAGE>  17

ratio. Our loss and LAE ratio for the first six months of 2004 decreased to 69.8% from 79.0% during the same period in 2003. The improvement was the result of several factors, including:

*

an increase in average earned premium revenue per automobile;

*

a decline in the current year personal automobile physical damage claim frequency due to more favorable weather conditions; and

*

a decrease in the overall CAR deficit.

Our underwriting expense ratio for the first six months of 2004 increased to 22.9% from 21.5% during the same period in 2003. This increase was primarily a net result of higher accrued contingent commissions offset by lower commission rates mandated for 2004 policy year Massachusetts personal automobile policies. The year-to-date underwriting expense ratios represent policy acquisition costs grossed-up for the increase in deferred acquisition costs of $20.8 million for 2004 and $19.0 million for 2003, the result of which is divided by net premiums written.

      The market price for our common stock and our financial results directly affect our expense related to stock options and book value awards (BVAs). Our stock option expense represents options granted to both agents and employees. An increase in the market value of our stock will increase the expense we recognize for options subject to variable accounting. Similarly, an increase in our net income will increase the value of, and therefore the expense we recognize for, outstanding BVAs. We record these expenses in two separate line items on our income statement - losses and loss adjustment expenses and policy acquisition costs. The stock option and BVA expenses recorded in each line item for the three and six months ended 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

Three Months

 

Six Months

 


 


 

2004

 

2003

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


 


 


                       

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

$

4,972

 

$

3,774

 

$

10,932

 

$

2,657

Policy acquisition costs

 

4,237

   

3,229

   

9,255

   

2,268

 


 


 


 


    Total stock option and BVA expenses

$

9,209

 

$

7,003

 

$

20,187

 

$

4,925

 


 


 


 


               

Net Investment Income

 

      Our investment portfolio and yields on those investments affect net investment income. The composition of our investment portfolio, at cost, at June 30, 2004 and 2003 follows:

 
     

% of

     

% of

 

2004

 

Total

 

2003

 

Total

 


 


 


 


                       

Fixed maturities(a)

$

1,621,137

 

70.8

%

 

$

898,972

 

51.8

%

Preferred stocks

 

384,902

 

16.8

     

329,748

 

19.0

 

Common stocks

 

97,307

 

4.3

     

58,762

 

3.4

 

Preferred stock mutual funds

 

51,316

 

2.2

     

244,799

 

14.1

 

Mortgages and collateral notes

 

15,157

 

0.7

     

19,522

 

1.1

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

73,794

 

3.2

     

142,755

 

8.3

 

Other investments

 

44,503

 

2.0

     

40,093

 

2.3

 
 


 


 


 


    Total investments

$

2,288,116

 

100.0

%

 

$

1,734,651

 

100.0

%

 


 


 


 


___________________

                     

(a)

Fixed maturities include GNMA & FNMA mortgage-backed bonds, corporate bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds and notes and tax-exempt state and municipal bonds.

   

      Key measures of net investment income for the quarters ended 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

2004

 

2003

 

Change

 


 


 


                 

Average month-end investments (at cost)

$

2,263,706

 

$

1,665,040

 

$

598,666

Net investment income, before tax

 

27,894

   

23,392

   

4,502

Net investment income, after tax

 

21,991

   

18,403

   

3,588

Annualized net investment income as a percentage

               

  of average net investments (at cost), before tax

 

4.9%

   

5.6%

   

(12.5)%

Annualized net investment income as a percentage of average

               

  net investments (at cost), after tax

 

3.9%

   

4.4%

   

(11.4)%

<PAGE>  18

      Key measures of net investment income for the six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

2004

 

2003

 

Change

 


 


 


                 

Average month-end investments (at cost)

$

2,236,460

 

$

1,653,489

 

$

582,971

Net investment income, before tax

 

55,709

   

45,812

   

9,897

Net investment income, after tax

 

44,002

   

36,706

   

7,296

Annualized net investment income as a percentage of average

               

  net investments (at cost), before tax

 

5.0%

   

5.5%

   

(9.1)%

Annualized net investment income as a percentage of average

               

  net investments (at cost), after tax

 

3.9%

   

4.4%

   

(11.4)%

                 

      The increases in our net investment income were primarily due to increased invested assets partially offset by lower yields in all investment types, particularly corporate bonds and preferred stock. The increase in invested assets is primarily attributable to proceeds from the issuance of our senior notes and operating cash flows. The decrease in yields is primarily due to the sale of higher yielding investment securities. Pre-tax and after-tax yields remain consistent with the yields in the first quarter.

 

Realized Investment Gains and Losses

 

      Net realized investment gains (losses) for the quarters ended 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

2004

 

2003

 

Change

 


 


 


Other Than Temporary Impairment losses:

               

Equity securities

$

-- 

 

$

(493)

 

$

493 

 


 


 


Transaction net gains (losses):

               

Fixed maturity securities

 

(6,387)

   

12,652 

   

(19,039)

Equity securities

 

3,236 

   

20,092 

   

(16,856)

Venture capital fund

 

(184)

   

(463)

   

279 

Other investments

 

(8)

   

(60)

   

52 

 


 


 


    Transaction net gains (losses)

 

(3,343)

   

32,221 

   

(35,564)

 


 


 


Equity in earnings (losses) of closed-end preferred stock

               

  mutual funds

 

(5,259)

   

34,136 

   

(39,395)

 


 


 


    Net realized investment gains (losses) included in net earnings

$

(8,602)

 

$

65,864 

 

$

(74,466)

 


 


 


                 

      Approximately half of our quarterly change and most of our year-to-date change in realized gains (losses) is from a reduction in equity in earnings of closed-end preferred stock mutual funds. At June 30, 2003, we had seven funds subject to the equity method of accounting with a total cost basis of $244,799. Due to sales of these funds since then, at June 30, 2004, we had one fund subject to the equity method of accounting with a cost basis of $51,316, or 79% less than the balance at June 30, 2003. This fund has significant holdings in preferred stocks with long durations, the values of which closely follow bond interest rates. The quarterly and year-to-date equity in losses are primarily due to higher long-term interest rates. Equity in gains in these funds in 2003 were much higher due to lower interest rates and more invested assets.

 

      The decrease in transaction net realized gains from fixed maturity and equity securities in the quarter and six months ended 2004 is primarily due to the significant rise in interest rates during 2004 which caused a decline in the market value of most of our fixed income investments. We realized losses as we sold these securities for strategic asset allocation reasons, primarily during the second quarter. The realized losses were generally not due to specific security events within our portfolio.

<PAGE>  19

      Net realized investment gains (losses) for the six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

2004

 

2003

 

Change

 


 


 


Other Than Temporary Impairment losses:

               

Fixed maturity securities

$

(1,565)

 

$

(8,928)

 

$

7,363 

Equity securities

 

(203)

   

(7,021)

   

6,818 

 


 


 


    Total other than temporary impairment losses

 

(1,768)

   

(15,949)

   

14,181 

 


 


 


Transaction net gains (losses):

               

Fixed maturity securities

 

3,271 

   

16,025 

   

(12,754)

Equity securities

 

12,182 

   

21,298 

   

(9,116)

Venture capital fund

 

1,515 

   

(1,051)

   

2,566 

Other investments

 

(197)

   

(50)

   

(147)

 


 


 


    Transaction net gains

 

16,771 

   

36,222 

   

(19,451)

 


 


 


Equity in earnings (losses) of closed-end preferred stock

               

  mutual funds

 

(3,146)

   

39,747 

   

(42,893)

 


 


 


    Net realized investment gains included in net earnings

$

11,857 

 

$

60,020 

 

$

(48,163)

 


 


 


                 

      Partially offsetting the year-to-date decrease in equity in earnings of closed-end preferred stock mutual funds was the decrease in other-than-temporary impairment losses in 2004. We attribute this to an improved credit environment. In addition, we realized a significant amount of gains from investment transactions primarily in the first quarter of 2004. During the first quarter, we sold securities at a gain primarily because we believed that interest rates had once again fallen to levels that were not sustainable over the long term. Most of the sales occurred in long-duration municipal bonds and preferred stocks. We will continue to reduce or increase the duration of our investment portfolio when we believe market conditions are appropriate for such action within our overall investment philosophy.

 

      We reviewed all of our security investments for other-than-temporary declines in market value. In particular, we scrutinized, in accordance with our related accounting policy, our temporarily impaired securities - those securities with market values at June 30, 2004 that were less than the amount we paid. We determined that the values of these securities were temporarily impaired and no write-down was necessary.

 

Policy Acquisition Costs

 

      Our consolidated policy acquisition costs increased 13.8% for the quarter and 22.2% for the comparable six month periods. These increases are primarily related to our premium growth. In addition, increases in stock option and BVA expenses in the 2004 periods have similarly affected policy acquisition costs.

 

Interest Expense & Amortization of Bond Fees

 

      Interest expense and amortization of bond fees are from our senior notes which we issued in 2003 after the second quarter.

 

Income Taxes

 

      Our overall effective tax rate for the quarter ended 2004 was 27.4% and 21.0% for the quarter ended 2003. For the six month periods, the effective rate was 28.2% for 2004 and 21.8% for 2003. Our effective tax rate increased in 2004 due to improved underwriting results (as evidenced by our combined ratio), the impact of the reversal of our tax valuation allowance in 2003, and our realized investment gains and losses. In all periods, our effective rate was lower than the statutory rate of 35.0% primarily due to tax-exempt interest and the corporate dividends received deduction. The federal income tax expense (benefit) for the three and six months ended 2004 and 2003 follows:

 
 

Three Months

 

Six Months

 


 


 

2004

 

2003

 

2004

 

2003

 


 


 


 


                       

Current

$

19,927 

 

$

27,078 

 

$

33,162

 

$

31,631 

Deferred

 

(5,775)

   

(7,998)

   

1,742

   

(8,146)

 


 


 


 


 

$

14,152 

 

$

19,080 

 

$

34,904

 

$

23,485 

 


 


 


 


                       

Segment Premium Results

 

      We evaluate our performance and allocate resources based primarily on our property and casualty insurance segments, which represent nearly all of our total revenues. Direct premiums written and earned for the quarters ended 2004 and 2003 follow:

<PAGE>  20

%

2004

2003

$ Change

Change

 


 


 


 


Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

                   

Personal automobile

$

337,177

 

$

298,489

 

$

38,688

 

13.0%

Commercial automobile

 

25,255

   

22,203

   

3,052

 

13.7%

Homeowners

 

30,985

   

26,441

   

4,544

 

17.2%

Other lines

 

10,989

   

9,616

   

1,373

 

14.3%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written

 

404,406

   

356,749

   

47,657

 

13.4%

 


 


 


   

Other Than Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

                   

Personal automobile

 

48,905

   

46,942

   

1,963

 

4.2%

Commercial automobile

 

2,545

   

2,164

   

381

 

17.6%

Homeowners

 

11,816

   

9,684

   

2,132

 

22.0%

Other lines

 

314

   

248

   

66

 

26.6%

 


 


 


   

    Other Than Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written

 

63,580

   

59,038

   

4,542

 

7.7%

 


 


 


   

    Total Direct Premiums Written

$

467,986

 

$

415,787

 

$

52,199

 

12.6%

 


 


 


   

Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

                   

Personal automobile

$

308,054

 

$

269,950

 

$

38,104

 

14.1%

Commercial automobile

 

23,123

   

20,022

   

3,101

 

15.5%

Homeowners

 

26,799

   

22,124

   

4,675

 

21.1%

Other lines

 

9,302

   

7,654

   

1,648

 

21.5%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums

 

367,278

   

319,750

   

47,528

 

14.9%

 


 


 


   

Other Than Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

                   

Personal automobile

 

50,136

   

45,762

   

4,374

 

9.6%

Commercial automobile

 

2,082

   

1,729

   

353

 

20.4%

Homeowners

 

9,607

   

7,642

   

1,965

 

25.7%

Other lines

 

272

   

219

   

53

 

24.2%

 


 


 


   

    Other Than Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums

 

62,097

   

55,352

   

6,745

 

12.2%

 


 


 


   

    Total Direct Earned Premiums

$

429,375

 

$

375,102

 

$

54,273

 

14.5%

 


 


 


   
               

      Direct premiums written and earned for the six months ended 2004 and 2003 follow:

               

%

2004

2003

$ Change

Change

 


 


 


 


Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

                   

Personal automobile

$

714,221

 

$

639,819

 

$

74,402

 

11.6%

Commercial automobile

 

52,237

   

46,945

   

5,292

 

11.3%

Homeowners

 

52,918

   

44,787

   

8,131

 

18.2%

Other lines

 

20,057

   

17,139

   

2,918

 

17.0%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written

 

839,433

   

748,690

   

90,743

 

12.1%

 


 


 


   

Other Than Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

                   

Personal automobile

 

101,093

   

94,411

   

6,682

 

7.1%

Commercial automobile

 

4,706

   

4,149

   

557

 

13.4%

Homeowners

 

20,792

   

16,876

   

3,916

 

23.2%

Other lines

 

549

   

455

   

94

 

20.7%

 


 


 


   

    Other Than Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written

 

127,140

   

115,891

   

11,249

 

9.7%

 


 


 


   

    Total Direct Premiums Written

$

966,573

 

$

864,581

 

$

101,992

 

11.8%

 


 


 


   

Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

                   

Personal automobile

$

608,203

 

$

531,271

 

$

76,932

 

14.5%

Commercial automobile

 

45,668

   

39,244

   

6,424

 

16.4%

Homeowners

 

52,841

   

43,531

   

9,310

 

21.4%

Other lines

 

18,343

   

14,810

   

3,533

 

23.9%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums

 

725,055

   

628,856

   

96,199

 

15.3%

 


 


 


   

Other Than Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

                   

Personal automobile

 

100,044

   

88,613

   

11,431

 

12.9%

Commercial automobile

 

4,055

   

3,185

   

870

 

27.3%

Homeowners

 

18,777

   

14,721

   

4,056

 

27.6%

Other lines

 

512

   

416

   

96

 

23.1%

 


 


 


   

    Other Than Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums

 

123,388

   

106,935

   

16,453

 

15.4%

 


 


 


   

    Total Direct Earned Premiums

$

848,443

 

$

735,791

 

$

112,652

 

15.3%

 


 


 


   

<PAGE>  21

Massachusetts Segment

 

      We experienced growth in direct premiums written in all of our insurance categories in Massachusetts, with growth in personal automobile accounting for approximately 80% of the quarterly and year-to-date increases in Massachusetts. Personal automobile business growth was a result of a 6.5% increase in average written premium per written exposure coupled with a 4.7% increase in the number of exposures written for the six months ended 2004. Our year-to-date homeowners growth was from a 12.3% increase in average premium per policy coupled with a 4.0% increase in the number of policies. Our year-to-date commercial automobile growth was from a 5.1% increase in average premium per policy coupled with a 5.9% increase in the number of policies. Growth in these lines of business came primarily from our agents who had been with our agency force since the second quarter of 2003.

 

Other Than Massachusetts Segment

 

      Personal automobile and homeowners growth accounted for approximately 90% of the quarterly and year-to-date increases in direct premiums written in states other than Massachusetts. The increase in personal automobile and homeowners business was primarily due to additional rate per policy coupled with a slight year-to-date increase in policy count, as we are seeing an increase in competition especially in the Western states for AAA business.

 

Financial Condition

 

      The market and equity value of our total investments decreased 6.0% during the quarter primarily from unrealized losses at June 30, 2004 due to the impact of an increase in interest rates on our portfolio during the quarter. Since the beginning of this year, the market and equity value of our total investments increased 1.3% due to our investing cash from operating and investing activities, partially offset by unrealized losses. Our ratio of total liabilities to stockholders' equity increased slightly at June 30, 2004 from December 31, 2003. This increase primarily resulted from increases in both unearned premiums and unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses. The increase in unearned premiums was primarily from increased personal automobile direct premiums written coupled with the seasonality of the policy effective dates. The total amount of a policy's premium is recorded as written premium on the first day the policy is effective; however, the poli cy premium is earned over the ensuing year. There have been no material changes in our contractual obligations and commercial commitments which we reported in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003.

 

      Industry and regulatory guidelines suggest that the ratio of a property and casualty insurer's annual net premiums written to statutory policyholders' surplus should not exceed 3.00 to 1.00. Our twelve-month rolling net premiums written to statutory surplus ratio was 1.46 to 1.00 for the period ended June 30, 2004 and 2.09 to 1.00 for the period ended June 30, 2003.

 

Contractual Obligations and Commercial Commitments

 

      Our contractual obligations and commercial commitments as of June 30, 2004 by maturity follow:

 

Payments Due by Fiscal Period


Contractual Obligations

Total

2004

2005-06

2007-08

Thereafter







Bond indebtedness principal

$

300,000

$

--

$

--

$

--

$

300,000

Bond indebtedness interest

169,575

8,925

35,700

35,700

89,250

Unpaid losses and LAE (a)

1,015,264


    Total contractual obligations

1,484,839


Commitment Expiration


Commercial Commitments

Total

2004

2005-06

2007-08

Thereafter







Venture capital partnerships

$

12,467

$

--

$

945

$

--

$

11,522






___________________

(a)

The liability for unpaid losses and LAE represents the accumulation of individual case estimates for reported losses, adjustments to this amount on a line of business basis and estimates for incurred but not reported losses and LAE, net of salvage and subrogation recoverable. The liability is intended to cover the ultimate net cost of all losses and LAE incurred through the balance sheet date. We do not know, nor can we reasonably estimate, when these estimated obligations will be paid.

<PAGE>  22

      We have commitments in two venture capital fund investments. These investments are made in limited partnerships and our exposure to loss is limited to our actual investment. One limited partnership investment required a commitment by us to invest up to $50.0 million into the partnership. As of June 30, 2004, we have invested $38.5 million into the partnership. The partnership was formed to operate as an investment fund principally for the purpose of making investments primarily in equity, equity-related and other securities issued in expansion financing, start-ups, buy-outs and recapitalization transactions relating to companies in the areas of insurance, financial services, e-commerce, healthcare, and related businesses, including, without limitation, service and technology enterprises supporting such businesses.

 

      The other limited partnership interest required a commitment by us to invest up to $3.5 million into the partnership. As of June 30, 2004, we have invested $2.6 million into the partnership. The partnership was formed to operate as an investment fund principally for the purpose of making investments in equity and equity related securities of companies operating in the area of insurance distribution and distribution related activities.

 

Liquidity

 

      Our cash flows for the six months ended June 30, 2004 and 2003 follow:

 
 

2004

 

2003

 

Change

 


 


 


Cash from (for):

               

Operating activities

$

111,318 

 

$

96,577 

 

$

14,741 

Investing activities

 

(243,146)

   

(134,529)

   

(108,617)

Financing activities

 

(9,919)

   

(25,608)

   

15,689 

                 

      Operating Activities. Premiums collected less losses and acquisition costs paid increased $53.0 million in 2004 from 2003. Premiums collected outpaced the increases in losses and LAE paid and policy acquisition costs paid. This occurs when we have significant increases in business, as claims paid tend to lag behind premiums collected. In addition, contributing to the increase was the decline in claim frequency in 2004 relative to the first six months of 2003. The increase in cash from operating activities was partially offset by $8.9 million of interest paid on our senior notes.

 

      Investing Activities. Investment purchases less investment sales, repayments and maturities, or net investment purchase activity, increased $105.1 million in 2004 from 2003. This increase in net investment purchase activity came from cash from operating activities. The purchase of additional securities with longer maturity dates and slower anticipated paydowns on securities as a result of increased interest rates during 2004 caused our portfolio duration to increase from 5.6 years at December 31, 2003 to 5.8 years at June 30, 2004.

 

      Financing Activities. Cash for financing activities was primarily for dividends paid to stockholders, partially offset by cash received in conjunction with the exercise of stock options.

 

Investment Strategy and Interest Rate Risk

 

      Our investment strategy emphasizes after-tax investment yield while maintaining overall investment quality. The primary focus of our investment objectives continues to be maximizing after-tax investment income through investing primarily in high-quality diversified fixed income investments structured to maximize after-tax investment income while minimizing risk. We generally invest in securities with maturities intended to provide adequate funds to pay claims and meet other operating needs without the forced sale of investments. When the appropriate opportunity arises, we will recognize investment gains to increase after-tax total return. We held no derivatives, emerging market securities or hedge funds at June 30, 2004 and December 31, 2003.

 

Interest Rate Sensitivity

 

      Our investments include positions in fixed maturity, equity, short-term and cash equivalents markets. Therefore, we are exposed to the impacts of interest rate changes in the market value of investments. We estimated our exposure to interest rate changes and equity price risk at June 30, 2004 using sensitivity analysis. The interest rate impact is the effect of a hypothetical interest rate change of plus-or-minus 200 basis points on the market value of fixed maturities and preferred stocks.

 

      Changes in interest rates would result in unrealized gains or losses in the market value of the fixed maturity and preferred stock portfolio due to differences between current market rates and the stated rates for these investments. The following table summarizes our interest rate risk, based on the results of the sensitivity analysis at June 30, 2004.

<PAGE>  23

   

Estimated Market

     

Hypothetical

   

Value of Fixed

 

Estimated

 

Percentage

   

Income and

 

Increase

 

Increase (Decrease) in

   

Preferred Stock

 

(Decrease) in

 

Stockholders'

Hypothetical Change in Interest Rates

 

Investments

 

Market Value

 

Equity (1)


 


 


 


                   

200 basis point increase

 

$1,785,620

   

$(189,198)

   

(12.8)%

 

No change

 

1,974,818

   

-- 

   

--

 

200 basis point decrease

 

2,154,422

   

179,604 

   

12.2%

 

___________________

                 

(1)

Net of income taxes at an assumed rate of 35%.

 

      The rise in U.S. interest rates during 2004 was the primary reason why our net unrealized gains of $44.9 million at December 31, 2003 were reduced to net unrealized losses of $33.6 million at June 30, 2004. While the equity markets were relatively unchanged during the period, a large part of the increase in our unrealized losses in our equity securities was due to our holdings in several preferred stock mutual funds which had large holdings in fixed income products.

 

Forward-Looking Statements

 

      This quarterly report may contain statements that are not historical fact and constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act. Statements about our expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance are not historical facts and may be forward-looking. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as "anticipates," "estimates," "plans," "projects," "continuing," "ongoing," "expects," "may," "should," "management believes," "we believe," "we intend," and similar words or phrases. These statements may address, among other things, our strategy for growth, business development, regulatory approvals, market position, expenditures, financial results and reserves. Accordingly, these statements involve estimates, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materia lly from those expressed in them. All forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the factors discussed throughout this quarterly report and in our recently filed quarterly and annual reports on Forms 10-Q and 10-K, and other documents filed with the SEC, including our most recent registration statement on Form S-3. Among the key factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements are the following:

 

*

 

the possibility of severe weather and adverse catastrophic experiences;

     

*

 

adverse trends in claim severity or frequency;

     

*

 

adverse state and federal regulations and legislation;

     

*

 

adverse judicial decisions;

     

*

 

adverse changes to the laws, regulations and rules governing the residual market system in Massachusetts;

     

*

 

interest rate risk;

     

*

 

rate making decisions for private passenger automobile policies in Massachusetts;

     

*

 

potential rate filings;

     

*

 

heightened competition;

     

*

 

concentration of business within Massachusetts;

     

*

 

market disruption in Massachusetts, if competitors exited the market or become insolvent;

     

*

 

dependence on our executive officers; and,

     

*

 

the economic, market or regulatory conditions and risks associated with entry into new markets and diversification.

<PAGE>  24

      You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. The risk factors referred to above could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by us or on our behalf. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict which factors will arise. In addition, we cannot assess the impact of each factor on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.

 

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk

 

      Refer to "Investment Strategy and Interest Rate Risk" in Item 2, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, for the interim period information required by this Item.

 

Item 4. Controls and Procedures

 

Evaluation of disclosure controls and procedures

 

      Under the supervision and with the participation of our management, including our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, we evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of our disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rule 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Exchange Act) as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based upon that evaluation, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure that information required to be disclosed in the reports that we file or submit under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported, within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission's rules and forms.

 

Changes in internal controls

 

      There has been no change in our internal control over financial reporting that has occurred during our last fiscal quarter that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

 

Part II - Other Information

 

Item 2. Changes in Securities and Use of Proceeds

 

      During the three months ended June 30, 2004, we acquired shares of our common stock through private transactions which involved the exercise of stock options by our officers. Instead of paying us cash to exercise their stock options, the officers tendered their shares of common stock in our company. The average price paid per share is the value we determined for the shares we acquired, which represents a five-day average of our common stock's daily high and low trading prices. A summary of these transactions follows:

 


2004
Period

Total
Number
of Shares

Average
Price Paid
Per Share

Total Number of Shares
Purchased as Part of
Publicly Announced Plan

Maximum Number of
Shares that May Yet be
Purchased Under the Plan

April

--

--

--

858,300

May

--

--

--

858,300

June

493,361

$ 45.95

--

858,300

<PAGE>  25

Item 4. Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders

 

      On May 21, 2004, at our Annual Meeting of the stockholders, the number of directors was fixed at 17 and the slate of directors, as presented in the Annual Proxy, was approved. The votes as tabulated by EquiServe Trust Company follow:

 
     

Total Vote

 

Total Vote for

 

Withheld from

 

Each Director

 

Each Director

 


 


       

Randall V. Becker

27,915,566

 

1,183,455

Joseph A. Borski, Jr.

27,488,565

 

1,610,456

Eric G. Butler

28,004,215

 

1,094,806

Henry J. Camosse

28,043,582

 

1,055,439

Gerald Fels

27,905,807

 

1,193,214

David R. Grenon

28,033,326

 

1,065,695

Robert W. Harris

28,041,664

 

1,057,357

Robert S. Howland

28,041,531

 

1,057,490

John J. Kunkel

28,043,415

 

1,055,606

Raymond J. Lauring

28,002,164

 

1,096,857

Normand R. Marois

27,597,884

 

1,501,137

Suryakant M. Patel

28,034,421

 

1,064,600

Arthur J. Remillard, Jr.

28,004,007

 

1,095,014

Arthur J. Remillard, III

27,994,848

 

1,104,173

Regan P. Remillard

27,990,289

 

1,108,732

Gurbachan Singh

27,579,966

 

1,519,055

John W. Spillane

28,005,117

 

1,093,904

       

Item 6. Exhibits and Reports on Form 8-K

 

Exhibits:

10.32

 

2004 Book Value Award Agreement

     

10.33

 

Combined Property and Liability Quota Share Reinsurance Agreement

     

31.1

 

CEO Certification Statements Under Section 302 of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

     

31.2

 

CFO Certification Statements Under Section 302 of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

     

32.1

 

CEO Certification Statements Under Section 906 of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

     

32.2

 

CFO Certification Statements Under Section 906 of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

     

99

 

Massachusetts Attorney General's statement to Massachusetts Division of Insurance regarding proposed revisions to Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers rules of operation

     

Report on Form 8-K:

 

      On April 27, 2004, we furnished a Form 8-K for Items 9 and 12. This Form 8-K reported our results for the quarter ended March 31, 2004.

<PAGE>  26

Signature

 

      Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on our behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

 

The COMMERCE GROUP, INC.

/s/ Randall V. Becker


Randall V. Becker

Treasurer and Chief Accounting Officer

Dated this 5th day of August, 2004.

<PAGE>  27