Back to GetFilings.com
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 10-Q
[X] Quarterly report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2003 or
[ ] Transition report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the transition period from to__________________
Commission File Number 0-17446
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Delaware 13-3490286
(State or other jurisdiction of (I.R.S. Employer
incorporation or organization) Identification No.)
Demeter Management Corporation
825 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
New York, NY 10022
(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)
Registrant's telephone number, including area code (212) 310-6444
(Former name, former address, and former fiscal year, if changed
since last report)
Indicate by check-mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all
reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or
for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file
such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing
requirements for the past 90 days.
Yes X No___________
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
INDEX TO QUARTERLY REPORT ON FORM 10-Q
September 30, 2003
PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
Item 1. Financial Statements
Statements of Financial Condition as of September 30, 2003
(Unaudited) and December 31, 2002..........................2
Statements of Operations for the Quarters Ended
September 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited)....................3
Statements of Operations for the Nine Months Ended
September 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited)....................4
Statements of Changes in Partners' Capital for the
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited)..5
Statements of Cash Flows for the Nine Months Ended
September 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited)....................6
Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited)...............7-11
Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of
Financial Condition and Results of Operations.......12-21
Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about
Market Risk.........................................22-34
Item 4. Controls and Procedures.............................34-35
Part II. OTHER INFORMATION
Item 1. Legal Proceedings......................................36
Item 5. Other Information......................................36
Item 6. Exhibits and Reports on Form 8-K....................36-38
PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
Item 1. Financial Statements
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION
September 30, December 31,
2003 2002
$ $
(Unaudited)
ASSETS
Equity in futures interests trading accounts:
Cash 7,369,373 8,415,187
Net unrealized gain on open contracts (MS&Co.) 483,464 1,195,269
Net unrealized loss on open contracts (MSIL) (77,284) (206,630)
Total net unrealized gain on open contracts 406,180 988,639
Total Trading Equity 7,775,553 9,403,826
Due from Morgan Stanley DW 6,259 -
Interest receivable (Morgan Stanley DW) 4,995 7,278
Total Assets 7,786,807 9,411,104
LIABILITIES AND PARTNERS' CAPITAL
Liabilities
Redemptions payable 83,307 41,293
Accrued management fees (MSFCM) 19,467 23,527
Accrued incentive fees (MSFCM) - 279,771
Total Liabilities 102,774 344,591
Partners' Capital
Limited Partners (2,012.293 and
2,168.038 Units, respectively) 7,436,971 8,651,504
General Partner (66.850 and
104.000 Units, respectively) 247,062 415,009
Total Partners' Capital 7,684,033 9,066,513
Total Liabilities and Partners' Capital 7,786,807 9,411,104
NET ASSET VALUE PER UNIT 3,695.77 3,990.48
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(Unaudited)
For the Quarters Ended September 30,
2003 2002
$ $
REVENUES
Trading profit (loss):
Realized (1,101,795) 2,332,037
Net change in unrealized 369,349 (1,143,406)
(732,446) 1,188,631
Proceeds from litigation settlement - 157,127
Total Trading Results (732,446) 1,345,758
Interest income (Morgan Stanley DW) 16,136 31,061
Total (716,310) 1,376,819
EXPENSES
Brokerage commissions (Morgan Stanley DW) 124,058 117,259
Management fees (MSFCM) 62,015 71,024
Transaction fees and costs 5,816 5,061
Incentive fees (MSFCM) - 149,293
Total 191,889 342,637
NET INCOME (LOSS) (908,199) 1,034,182
NET INCOME (LOSS) ALLOCATION
Limited Partners (879,311) 987,833
General Partner (28,888) 46,349
NET INCOME (LOSS) PER UNIT
Limited Partners (432.13) 445.67
General Partner (432.13) 445.67
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(Unaudited)
For the Nine Months Ended September 30,
2003 2002
$ $
REVENUES
Trading profit (loss):
Realized 747,007 2,763,666
Net change in unrealized (582,459) 253,182
164,548 3,016,848
Proceeds from litigation settlement - 157,127
Total Trading Results 164,548 3,173,975
Interest income (Morgan Stanley DW) 62,017 85,959
Total 226,565 3,259,934
EXPENSES
Brokerage commissions (Morgan Stanley DW) 393,388 319,431
Management fees (MSFCM) 218,156 193,046
Incentive fees (MSFCM) 178,017 373,716
Transaction fees and costs 17,610 14,991
Total 807,171 901,184
NET INCOME (LOSS) (580,606) 2,358,750
NET INCOME (LOSS) ALLOCATION
Limited Partners (577,659) 2,256,300
General Partner (2,947) 102,450
NET INCOME (LOSS) PER UNIT
Limited Partners (294.71) 985.10
General Partner (294.71) 985.10
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF CHANGES IN PARTNERS' CAPITAL
For the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2003 and 2002
(Unaudited)
Units of
Partnership Limited General
Interest Partners Partner Total
$ $ $
Partners' Capital,
December 31, 2001 2,493.009 7,485,348 325,857 7,811,205
Net Income - 2,256,300 102,450 2,358,750
Redemptions (210.623) (770,322) - (770,322)
Partners' Capital,
September 30, 2002 2,282.386 8,971,326 428,307 9,399,633
Partners' Capital,
December 31, 2002 2,272.038 8,651,504 415,009 9,066,513
Net Loss - (577,659) (2,947) (580,606)
Redemptions (192.895) (636,874) (165,000) (801,874)
Partners' Capital,
September 30, 2003 2,079.143 7,436,971 247,062 7,684,033
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(Unaudited)
For the Nine Months Ended September 30,
2003 2002
$ $
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net income (loss) (580,606) 2,358,750
Noncash item included in net income (loss):
Net change in unrealized 582,459 (253,182)
(Increase) decrease in operating assets:
Due from Morgan Stanley DW (6,259) (1,367)
Interest receivable (Morgan Stanley DW) 2,283 (1,106)
Increase (decrease) in operating liabilities:
Accrued management fees (MSFCM) (4,060) 4,291
Accrued incentive fees (MSFCM) (279,771) 330,815
Net cash provided by (used for) operating activities (285,954) 2,438,201
CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Increase (decrease) in redemptions payable 42,014 (49,598)
Redemptions of Units (801,874) (770,322)
Net cash used for financing activities (759,860) (819,920)
Net increase (decrease) in cash (1,045,814) 1,618,281
Balance at beginning of period 8,415,187 7,965,887
Balance at end of period 7,369,373 9,584,168
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
September 30, 2003
(Unaudited)
The unaudited financial statements contained herein include, in
the opinion of management, all adjustments necessary for a fair
presentation of the results of operations and financial condition
of Dean Witter Diversified Futures Fund II L.P. (the
"Partnership"). The financial statements and condensed notes
herein should be read in conjunction with the Partnership's
December 31, 2002 Annual Report on Form 10-K.
1. Organization
Dean Witter Diversified Futures Fund II L.P. is a Delaware limited
partnership organized to engage primarily in the speculative
trading of futures contracts and forward contracts on physical
commodities, and other commodity interests, including, but not
limited to, foreign currencies, financial instruments, metals,
energy and agricultural products.
The Partnership's general partner is Demeter Management
Corporation ("Demeter"). The non-clearing commodity broker is
Morgan Stanley DW Inc. ("Morgan Stanley DW"). The clearing
commodity brokers are Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated ("MS &
Co.") and Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited ("MSIL").
The trading manager is Morgan Stanley Futures & Currency
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONTINUED)
Management Inc.("MSFCM" or the "Trading Manager"). Demeter, Morgan
Stanley DW, MS & Co., MSIL and MSFCM are wholly-owned subsidiaries
of Morgan Stanley.
2. Related Party Transactions
The Partnership's cash is on deposit with Morgan Stanley DW, MS &
Co. and MSIL in futures and forwards trading accounts to meet
margin requirements as needed. Morgan Stanley DW pays interest on
these funds based on current 13-week U.S. Treasury bills. The
Partnership pays brokerage commissions to Morgan Stanley DW.
Management fees and incentive fees, if any, incurred by the
Partnership are paid to MSFCM.
3. Financial Instruments
The Partnership trades futures contracts and forward contracts on
physical commodities and other commodity interests, including, but
not limited to, foreign currencies, financial instruments, metals,
energy and agricultural products. Futures and forwards represent
contracts for delayed delivery of an instrument at a specified
date and price. Risk arises from changes in the value of these
contracts and the potential inability of counterparties to perform
under the terms of the contracts. There are numerous factors
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONTINUED)
which may significantly influence the market value of these
contracts, including interest rate volatility.
The market value of contracts is based on closing prices quoted
by the exchange, bank or clearing firm through which the
contracts are traded.
The Partnership's contracts are accounted for on a trade-date
basis and marked to market on a daily basis. The Partnership
accounts for its derivative investments in accordance with the
provisions of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.
133, "Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging
Activities" ("SFAS No. 133"). SFAS No. 133 defines a derivative
as a financial instrument or other contract that has all three of
the following characteristics:
1) One or more underlying notional amounts or payment
provisions;
2) Requires no initial net investment or a smaller initial net
investment than would be required relative to changes in
market factors;
3) Terms require or permit net settlement.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONTINUED)
Generally, derivatives include futures, forward, swaps or options
contracts and other financial instruments with similar
characteristics such as caps, floors and collars.
The net unrealized gains on open contracts, reported as a
component of "Equity in futures interests trading accounts" on the
statements of financial condition, and their longest contract
maturities were as follows:
Net Unrealized Gains
on Open Contracts Longest Maturities
Exchange- Off-Exchange- Exchange- Off-Exchange-
Date Traded Traded Total Traded Traded
$ $ $
Sep. 30, 2003 179,939 226,241 406,180 Jun. 2004 Dec. 2003
Dec. 31, 2002 185,108 803,531 988,639 Sep. 2004 Apr. 2003
The Partnership has credit risk associated with counterparty non-
performance. The credit risk associated with the instruments in
which the Partnership is involved is limited to the amounts
reflected in the Partnership's statements of financial condition.
The Partnership also has credit risk because Morgan Stanley DW, MS
& Co. and MSIL act as the futures commission merchants or the
counterparties with respect to most of the Partnership's assets.
Exchange-traded futures contracts are marked to market on a daily
basis with variations in value settled on a daily basis. Morgan
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONCLUDED)
Stanley DW, MS & Co. and MSIL, each as a futures commission
merchant for the Partnership's exchange-traded futures contracts,
are required, pursuant to regulations of the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission ("CFTC"), to segregate from their own assets,
and for the sole benefit of their commodity customers, all funds
held by them with respect to exchange-traded futures contracts,
including an amount equal to the net unrealized gains on all open
futures contracts, which funds, in the aggregate, totaled
$7,549,312 and $8,600,295 at September 30, 2003 and December 31,
2002, respectively. With respect to the Partnership's off-
exchange-traded forward currency contracts, there are no daily
exchange-required settlements of variations in value nor is there
any requirement that an amount equal to the net unrealized gains
on open forward contracts be segregated, however, MS & Co. and
Morgan Stanley DW will make daily settlements of losses as needed.
With respect to those off-exchange-traded forward currency
contracts, the Partnership is at risk to the ability of MS & Co.,
the sole counterparty on all such contracts, to perform. The
Partnership has a netting agreement with MS & Co. This agreement,
which seeks to reduce both the Partnership's and MS & Co.'s
exposure on off-exchange-traded forward currency contracts, should
materially decrease the Partnership's credit risk in the event of
MS & Co.'s bankruptcy or insolvency.
Item 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL
CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Liquidity. The Partnership deposits its assets with Morgan
Stanley DW as non-clearing broker and MS & Co. and MSIL as
clearing brokers in separate futures and forwards trading accounts
established for the Trading Manager, which assets are used as
margin to engage in trading. The assets are held in either non-
interest bearing bank accounts or in securities and instruments
permitted by the CFTC for investment of customer segregated or
secured funds. The Partnership's assets held by the commodity
brokers may be used as margin solely for the Partnership's
trading. Since the Partnership's sole purpose is to trade in
futures and forwards, it is expected that the Partnership will
continue to own such liquid assets for margin purposes.
The Partnership's investment in futures and forwards may, from
time to time, be illiquid. Most U.S. futures exchanges limit
fluctuations in prices during a single day by regulations referred
to as "daily price fluctuations limits" or "daily limits". Trades
may not be executed at prices beyond the daily limit. If the
price for a particular futures contract has increased or decreased
by an amount equal to the daily limit, positions in that futures
contract can neither be taken nor liquidated unless traders are
willing to effect trades at or within the limit. Futures prices
have occasionally moved the daily limit for several consecutive
days with little or no trading. These market conditions could
prevent the Partnership from promptly liquidating its
futures contracts and result in restrictions on redemptions.
There is no limitation on daily price moves in trading forward
contracts on foreign currencies. The markets for some world
currencies have low trading volume and are illiquid, which may
prevent the Partnership from trading in potentially profitable
markets or prevent the Partnership from promptly liquidating
unfavorable positions in such markets, subjecting it to
substantial losses. Either of these market conditions could
result in restrictions on redemptions.
The Partnership has never had illiquidity affect a material
portion of its assets. Furthermore, there are no material trends,
demands, commitments, events or uncertainties known at the present
time that will result in, or that are reasonably likely to result
in, the Partnership's liquidity increasing or decreasing in any
material way.
Capital Resources. The Partnership does not have, nor expect to
have, any capital assets. Redemptions of additional units of
limited partnership interest ("Unit(s)") in the future will affect
the amount of funds available for investment in futures and
forwards in subsequent periods. It is not possible to estimate
the amount, and therefore the impact, of future redemptions of
Units.
There are no known material trends, favorable or
unfavorable, that would affect, and no expected material changes
to, the Partnership's capital resource arrangements at the
present time. The Partnership does not have any off-balance sheet
arrangements, nor does it have contractual obligations or
commercial commitments to make future payments that would affect
its liquidity or capital resources. The contracts the Partnership
trades are accounted for on a trade-date basis and marked to
market on a daily basis. The value of futures contracts is the
settlement price on the exchange on which that futures contract is
traded on a particular day. The value of foreign currency forward
contracts is based on the spot rate as of the close of business,
New York City time, on a given day.
Results of Operations
General. The Partnership's results depend on its Trading Manager
and the ability of the Trading Manager's trading programs to take
advantage of price movements or other profit opportunities in the
futures and forwards markets. The following presents a summary
of the Partnership's operations for the three and nine month
periods ended September 30, 2003 and 2002 and a general
discussion of its trading activities during each period. It is
important to note, however, that the Trading Manager trades in
various markets at different times and that prior activity in a
particular market does not mean that such market will be actively
traded by the Trading Manager or will be profitable in the future.
Consequently, the results of operations of the Partnership
are difficult to discuss other than in the context of the Trading
Manager's trading activities on behalf of the Partnership and how
the Partnership has performed in the past.
The Partnership's results of operations set forth in the financial
statements on pages 2 through 11 of this report were prepared in
accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the
United States of America, which require the use of certain
accounting policies that affect the amounts reported in these
financial statements, including the following: The contracts the
Partnership trades are accounted for on a trade-date basis and
marked to market on a daily basis. The difference between their
cost and market value is recorded on the Statements of Operations
as "Net change in unrealized profit/loss" for open (unrealized)
contracts, and recorded as "Realized profit/loss" when open
positions are closed out, and the sum of these amounts constitutes
the Partnership's trading revenues. Interest income revenue, as
well as management fees, incentive fees and brokerage commission
expenses of the Partnership are recorded on an accrual basis.
Demeter believes that, based on the nature of the operations of
the Partnership, no assumptions relating to the application of
critical accounting policies other than those presently used could
reasonably affect reported amounts.
For the Quarter and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2003
For the quarter ended September 30, 2003, the Partnership recorded
total trading losses, net of interest income, of $716,310 and
posted a decrease in net asset value per Unit. The most
significant losses of approximately 5.7% were recorded in the
global interest rate markets primarily during September from short
positions in Japanese, European, and U.S. interest rate futures as
bond prices reversed higher due to renewed skepticism regarding a
global economic recovery and lower global equity prices.
Additional losses of approximately 2.5% were recorded in the
agricultural markets, primarily during September, from short
coffee futures positions, as weak coffee crop estimates coupled
with dry Brazilian weather caused prices to reverse higher.
Elsewhere in the agricultural markets, losses were recorded from
positions in cotton futures, primarily during August, as prices
moved without consistent direction. Losses of approximately 1.0%
were recorded in the currency markets, from long positions in the
Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar during July as the value
of the U.S. currency strengthened amid better-than-expected U.S.
earnings data. In the metals markets, losses of approximately
0.9% resulted during August from long futures positions in
aluminum and copper as base metals prices were weighed down by
heavy technically-based selling and expectations for increased
output during the year 2004. Smaller losses of approximately 0.5%
were recorded in the global stock index markets during early
August and late September from long positions in S&P 500 Index
futures as global equity prices retreated amid a broad-
based sell-off prompted by a steady stream of economic data that
raised concerns about the strength of the global economy. Total
expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2003 were
$191,889, resulting in a net loss of $908,199. The net asset value
of a Unit decreased from $4,127.90 at June 30, 2003 to $3,695.77
at September 30, 2003.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2003, the Partnership
recorded total trading revenues, including interest income, of
$226,565 and, after expenses, posted a decrease in net asset value
per Unit. The most significant losses of approximately 5.7% were
incurred in the metals markets during May and June from short
positions in aluminum and copper futures as prices reversed
higher, buoyed by a rebound in U.S. equity prices and hopes for
increased industrial demand. During August, long futures
positions in aluminum and copper experienced losses as prices were
weighed down by heavy technically-based selling and expectations
for increased output during the year 2004. Additional losses of
approximately 4.4% were recorded in the agricultural markets from
positions in coffee and cotton futures as prices experienced
short-term volatile price movement throughout a majority of the
year. Smaller losses of approximately 3.4% were experienced in the
global interest rate markets from short positions in Japanese,
Australian and European interest rate futures during September as
bond prices reversed higher due to renewed skepticism regarding a
global economic recovery and lower equity prices. Further
losses in this sector stemmed from long positions in Australian
interest rate futures during March as prices reversed sharply
lower amid reports of advancing Coalition forces in the Persian
Gulf region. A portion of the Partnership's losses during the
first nine months of the year was offset by gains of approximately
6.8% in the energy markets stemming from long positions in natural
gas futures as prices trended higher during January and February
in response to prolonged frigid temperatures in the northeastern
and midwestern U.S. Additional gains in the energy markets were
recorded during the same time period from long positions in crude
oil futures as prices increased amid the looming threat of
military action against Iraq and an overall decline in
inventories. During July, short positions in natural gas futures
yielded gains as prices declined amid increased reserves and mild
summer weather conditions. In the currency markets, gains of
approximately 4.4% were produced from long positions in the euro
versus the British pound during January as the value of the pound
decreased due to weak economic data out of the U.K. and an
interest rate cut by the Bank of England. Additional currency
gains were recorded from long positions in the Australian dollar
versus the U.S. dollar during January, February, April and May as
the value of the Australian currency increased on the heels of
higher commodity prices and a significant interest rate
differential between the two countries. During May, gains
resulted from long positions in the euro versus the Japanese yen
as the value of the euro continued to trend higher
following the European Central Bank's decision to leave interest
rates unchanged. Total expenses for the nine months ended
September 30, 2003 were $807,171, resulting in a net loss of
$580,606. The net asset value of a Unit decreased from $3,990.48
at December 31, 2002 to $3,695.77 at September 30, 2003.
For the Quarter and Nine Months ended September 30, 2002
For the quarter ended September 30, 2002, the Partnership recorded
total trading revenues, including interest income, of $1,376,819
and posted an increase in net asset value per Unit. The most
significant gains of approximately 19.1% were recorded in the
global interest rate markets from previously established long
positions in German and U.S. interest rate futures, as prices
trended higher throughout the quarter due to investors seeking a
safe haven from falling equity prices and increased pessimism
regarding a global economic recovery. Additional gains of
approximately 1.7% were recorded in the energy markets, primarily
during August and September, from long positions in crude oil
futures as prices trended higher on the increasing possibility of
military action against Iraq. A portion of the Partnership's
overall gains for the quarter was offset by losses of
approximately 6.6% in the currency markets from previously
established long positions in the Swedish krona and Swiss franc
relative to the U.S. dollar as these currencies weakened against
the dollar due to the emphasis on a "strong dollar" policy by the
Bush Administration during July and the persistence of
trendless price activity during August and September. On February
27, 2002, the Partnership received notification of a preliminary
entitlement to payment from the Sumitomo Copper Litigation
Settlement Administrator. The Partnership received payment of this
settlement award in the amount of $157,127 as of August 30, 2002.
Total expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2002 were
$342,637, resulting in net income of $1,034,182. The net asset
value of a Unit increased from $3,672.67 at June 30, 2002 to
$4,118.34 at September 30, 2002.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2002, the Partnership
recorded total trading revenues, including interest income, of
$3,259,934 and posted an increase in net asset value per Unit. The
most significant gains of approximately 24.4% were recorded from
long positions in the global interest rate futures markets as
prices trended higher during a majority of the second and third
quarters due to uncertainty regarding a global economic recovery.
In the currency markets, gains of approximately 9.1% were
recorded, primarily during May and June, from previously
established long positions in the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and
euro relative to the U.S. dollar as the value of these currencies
strengthened against the dollar amid falling U.S. equity prices
and increased tensions in the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Gains
of approximately 3.2% were recorded in the energy markets from
long positions in crude oil futures as prices trended higher
during March, August, and September due to escalating
tensions in the Middle East. A portion of the Partnership's
overall gains was offset by losses of approximately 4.0% in the
metals markets from positions in aluminum and zinc futures as
trendless price activity persisted throughout the period. Total
expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2002 were
$901,184, resulting in net income of $2,358,750. The net asset
value of a Unit increased from $3,133.24 at December 31, 2001 to
$4,118.34 at September 30, 2002.
Item 3.QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Introduction
The Partnership is a commodity pool engaged primarily in the
speculative trading of futures and forwards. The market-sensitive
instruments held by the Partnership are acquired for speculative
trading purposes only and, as a result, all or substantially all
of the Partnership's assets are at risk of trading loss. Unlike
an operating company, the risk of market-sensitive instruments is
central, not incidental, to the Partnership's main business
activities.
The futures and forwards traded by the Partnership involve varying
degrees of related market risk. Market risk is often dependent
upon changes in the level or volatility of interest rates,
exchange rates, and prices of financial instruments and
commodities. Fluctuations in market risk based upon these factors
result in frequent changes in the fair value of the Partnership's
open positions, and consequently in its earnings and cash flow.
The Partnership's total market risk is influenced by a wide
variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the
diversification among the Partnership's open positions, the
volatility present within the markets, and the liquidity of the
markets. At different times, each of these factors may act to
increase or decrease the market risk associated with the
Partnership.
The Partnership's past performance is not necessarily indicative
of its future results. Any attempt to numerically quantify the
Partnership's market risk is limited by the uncertainty of its
speculative trading. The Partnership's speculative trading may
cause future losses and volatility (i.e., "risk of ruin") that far
exceed the Partnership's experience to date or any reasonable
expectations based upon historical changes in market value.
Quantifying the Partnership's Trading Value at Risk
The following quantitative disclosures regarding the Partnership's
market risk exposures contain "forward-looking statements" within
the meaning of the safe harbor from civil liability provided for
such statements by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
1995 (set forth in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934). All
quantitative disclosures in this section are deemed to be forward-
looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor, except for
statements of historical fact.
The Partnership accounts for open positions on the basis of mark
to market accounting principles. Any loss in the market value of
the Partnership's open positions is directly reflected in the
Partnership's earnings, whether realized or unrealized, and its
cash flow. Profits and losses on open positions of
exchange-traded futures and forwards are settled daily through
variation margin.
The Partnership's risk exposure in the market sectors traded by
the Trading Manager is estimated below in terms of Value at Risk
("VaR"). The VaR model used by the Partnership includes many
variables that could change the market value of the Partnership's
trading portfolio. The Partnership estimates VaR using a model
based upon historical simulation with a confidence level of 99%.
Historical simulation involves constructing a distribution of
hypothetical daily changes in the value of a trading portfolio.
The VaR model takes into account linear exposures to price and
interest rate risk. Market risks that are incorporated in the VaR
model include equity and commodity prices, interest rates, foreign
exchange rates, and correlation among these variables. The
hypothetical changes in portfolio value are based on daily
percentage changes observed in key market indices or other market
factors ("market risk factors") to which the portfolio is
sensitive. The historical observation period of the Partnership's
VaR is approximately four years. The one-day 99% confidence level
of the Partnership's VaR corresponds to the negative change in
portfolio value that, based on observed market risk factors, would
have been exceeded once in 100 trading days. In other words, one-
day VaR for a portfolio is a number such that losses for a
portfolio are estimated to exceed the VaR only one day in 100. VaR
typically does not represent the worst case outcome.
VaR is calculated using historical simulation. Demeter uses
approximately four years of daily market data (1,000 observations)
and revalues its portfolio (using delta-gamma approximations) for
each of the historical market moves that occurred over this time
period. This generates a probability distribution of daily
"simulated profit and loss" outcomes. The VaR is the appropriate
percentile of this distribution. For example, the 99% one-day VaR
would represent the 10th worst outcome from Demeter's simulated
profit and loss series.
The Partnership's VaR computations are based on the risk
representation of the underlying benchmark for each instrument or
contract and do not distinguish between exchange and non-exchange
dealer-based instruments. They are also not based on exchange
and/or dealer-based maintenance margin requirements.
VaR models, including the Partnership's, are continually evolving
as trading portfolios become more diverse and modeling techniques
and systems capabilities improve. Please note that the VaR model
is used to numerically quantify market risk for historic reporting
purposes only and is not utilized by either Demeter or the Trading
Manager in their daily risk management activities. Please further
note that VaR as described above may not be comparable to
similarly titled measures used by other entities.
The Partnership's Value at Risk in Different Market Sectors
The following table indicates the VaR associated with the
Partnership's open positions as a percentage of total net assets
by primary market risk category at September 30, 2003 and 2002.
At September 30, 2003 and 2002, the Partnership's total
capitalization was approximately $8 million and $9 million,
respectively.
Primary Market September 30, 2003 September 30, 2002
Risk Category Value at Risk Value at Risk
Currency (1.89)% (2.31)%
Interest Rate (0.08) (1.19)
Equity - (0.21)
Commodity (1.93) (2.53)
Aggregate Value at Risk (2.85)% (3.57)%
The VaR for a market category represents the one-day downside risk
for the aggregate exposures associated with this market category.
The Aggregate Value at Risk listed above represents the VaR of the
Partnership's open positions across all the market categories, and
is less than the sum of the VaRs for all such market categories
due to the diversification benefit across asset classes.
The table above represents the VaR of the Partnership's open
positions at September 30, 2003 and 2002 only and is not
necessarily representative of either the historic or future risk
of an investment in the Partnership. Because the only business of
the Partnership is the speculative trading of futures and
forwards, the composition of its trading portfolio can change
significantly over any given time period, or even within a single
trading day. Any changes in open positions could positively or
negatively materially impact market risk as measured by VaR.
The table below supplements the quarter-end VaR set forth above by
presenting the Partnership's high, low and average VaR, as a
percentage of total net assets for the four quarter-end reporting
periods from October 1, 2002 through September 30, 2003.
Primary Market Risk Category High Low Average
Currency (3.35)% (0.86)% (1.92)%
Interest Rate (2.41) (0.08) (1.45)
Equity (0.23) - (0.06)
Commodity (2.25) (1.74) (1.97)
Aggregate Value at Risk (4.76)% (2.77)% (3.34)%
Limitations on Value at Risk as an Assessment of Market Risk
The face value of the market sector instruments held by the
Partnership is typically many times the applicable margin
requirements. Margin requirements generally range between 2% and
15% of contract face value. Additionally, the use of leverage
causes the face value of the market sector instruments held by the
Partnership to typically be many times the total
capitalization of the Partnership. The value of the Partnership's
open positions thus creates a "risk of ruin" not typically found
in other investments. The relative size of the positions held may
cause the Partnership to incur losses greatly in excess of VaR
within a short period of time, given the effects of the leverage
employed and market volatility. The VaR tables above, as well as
the past performance of the Partnership, give no indication of
such "risk of ruin". In addition, VaR risk measures should be
viewed in light of the methodology's limitations, which include
the following:
? past changes in market risk factors will not always result in
accurate predictions of the distributions and correlations of
future market movements;
? changes in portfolio value caused by market movements may
differ from those of the VaR model;
? VaR results reflect past trading positions while future risk
depends on future positions;
? VaR using a one-day time horizon does not fully capture the
market risk of positions that cannot be liquidated or hedged
within one day; and
? the historical market risk factor data used for VaR estimation
may provide only limited insight into losses that could be
incurred under certain unusual market movements.
The VaR tables above present the results of the
Partnership's VaR for each of the Partnership's market risk
exposures and on an aggregate basis at September 30, 2003 and
2002, and for the four quarter-end reporting periods from October
1, 2002 through September 30, 2003. Since VaR is based on
historical data, VaR should not be viewed as predictive of the
Partnership's future financial performance or its ability to
manage or monitor risk. There can be no assurance that the
Partnership's actual losses on a particular day will not exceed
the VaR amounts indicated above or that such losses will not occur
more than once in 100 trading days.
Non-Trading Risk
The Partnership has non-trading market risk on its foreign cash
balances not needed for margin. These balances and any market
risk they may represent are immaterial.
The Partnership also maintains a substantial portion
(approximately 90% as of September 30, 2003) of its available
assets in cash at Morgan Stanley DW. A decline in short-term
interest rates will result in a decline in the Partnership's cash
management income. This cash flow risk is not considered to be
material.
Materiality, as used throughout this section, is based on an
assessment of reasonably possible market movements and any
associated potential losses, taking into account the leverage,
optionality and multiplier features of the Partnership's market-
sensitive instruments, in relation to the Partnership's net
assets.
Qualitative Disclosures Regarding Primary Trading Risk Exposures
The following qualitative disclosures regarding the Partnership's
market risk exposures - except for (A) those disclosures that are
statements of historical fact and (B) the descriptions of how the
Partnership manages its primary market risk exposures - constitute
forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of
the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act.
The Partnership's primary market risk exposures, as well as the
strategies used and to be used by Demeter and the Trading Manager
for managing such exposures, are subject to numerous
uncertainties, contingencies and risks, any one of which could
cause the actual results of the Partnership's risk controls to
differ materially from the objectives of such strategies.
Government interventions, defaults and expropriations, illiquid
markets, the emergence of dominant fundamental factors, political
upheavals, changes in historical price relationships, an influx of
new market participants, increased regulation and many other
factors could result in material losses, as well as in material
changes to the risk exposures and the risk management strategies
of the Partnership. Investors must be prepared to lose all or
substantially all of their investment in the Partnership.
The following were the primary trading risk exposures of the
Partnership at September 30, 2003, by market sector. It may be
anticipated, however, that these market exposures will vary
materially over time.
Currency. The primary market exposure of the Partnership at
September 30, 2003 was to the currency sector. The Partnership's
currency exposure is to exchange rate fluctuations, primarily
fluctuations which disrupt the historical pricing relationships
between different currencies and currency pairs. Interest rate
changes as well as political and general economic conditions
influence these fluctuations. The Partnership trades a large
number of currencies, including cross-rates - i.e., positions
between two currencies other than the U.S. dollar. At September
30, 2003, the Partnership's major exposures were to the euro,
Japanese yen and British pound currency crosses and outright U.S.
dollar positions. Outright positions consist of the U.S. dollar
vs. other currencies. These other currencies include major and
minor currencies. Demeter does not anticipate that the risk
profile of the Partnership's currency sector will change
significantly in the future. The currency trading VaR figure
includes foreign margin amounts converted into U.S. dollars with
an incremental adjustment to reflect the exchange rate risk
inherent to the U.S.-based Partnership in expressing VaR in a
functional currency other than U.S. dollars.
Interest Rate. The second largest market exposure at
September 30, 2003 was to the global interest rate complex.
Exposure was primarily to the U.S. interest rate sector. Interest
rate movements directly affect the price of the sovereign bond
futures positions held by the Partnership and indirectly affect
the value of its stock index and currency positions. Interest
rate movements in one country, as well as relative interest rate
movements between countries, materially impact the Partnership's
profitability. The Partnership's primary interest rate exposure
is generally to interest rate fluctuations in the U.S. and the
other G-7 countries. The G-7 countries consist of France, the
U.S., Britain, Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada. Demeter
anticipates that the G-7 countries interest rates will remain the
primary interest rate exposure of the Partnership for the
foreseeable future. The speculative futures positions held by the
Partnership may range from short to long-term instruments.
Consequently, changes in short, medium or long-term interest rates
may have an effect on the Partnership.
Commodity.
Energy. At September 30, 2003 the Partnership's energy
exposure was primarily to futures contracts in crude oil and
natural gas. Price movements in these markets result from
geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East,
as well as weather patterns and other economic fundamentals.
Significant profits and losses, which have been experienced
in the past, are expected to continue to be
experienced in the future. Natural gas has exhibited
volatility in prices resulting from weather patterns and
supply and demand factors and may continue in this choppy
pattern.
Metals. The Partnership's metals exposure at September 30,
2003 was to fluctuations in the price of precious metals,
such as gold, and base metals, such as copper and nickel.
Economic forces, supply and demand inequalities, geopolitical
factors and market expectations influence price movements in
these markets. The Trading Manager, from time to time, takes
positions as market opportunities develop, and Demeter
anticipates that the Partnership will continue to do so.
Soft Commodities and Agriculturals. At September 30, 2003,
the Partnership had exposure to the markets that comprise
these sectors. Most of the exposure was to corn and cotton.
Supply and demand inequalities, severe weather disruptions
and market expectations affect price movements in these
markets.
Qualitative Disclosures Regarding Non-Trading Risk Exposure
The following was the only non-trading risk exposure of the
Partnership at September 30, 2003:
Foreign Currency Balances. The Partnership's primary
foreign currency balance at September 30, 2003 was in
Japanese yen. The Partnership controls the non-trading risk
of foreign currency balances by regularly converting them
back into U.S. dollars upon liquidation of their respective
positions.
Qualitative Disclosures Regarding Means of Managing Risk Exposure
The Partnership and the Trading Manager, separately, attempt to
manage the risk of the Partnership's open positions in essentially
the same manner in all market categories traded. Demeter attempts
to manage market exposure by diversifying the Partnership's assets
among different market sectors and trading approaches, and
monitoring the performance of the Trading Manager daily. In
addition, the Trading Manager establishes diversification
guidelines, often set in terms of the maximum margin to be
committed to positions in any one market sector or market-
sensitive instrument.
Demeter monitors and controls the risk of the Partnership's non-
trading instrument, cash. Cash is the only Partnership investment
directed by Demeter, rather than the Trading Manager.
Item 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES
(a) As of the end of the period covered by this quarterly
report, the President and Chief Financial Officer of the
general partner, Demeter, have evaluated the
effectiveness of the Partnership's disclosure controls and
procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of
the Exchange Act), and have judged such controls and
procedures to be effective.
(b) There have been no significant changes in the
Partnership's internal controls or in other factors that
could significantly affect these controls subsequent to
the date of their evaluation.
PART II. OTHER INFORMATION
Item 1. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS
None.
Item 5. OTHER INFORMATION
Management. The following individuals were named to the Board of
Directors of Demeter in the quarter ended March 31, 2003 and were
subsequently confirmed as principals of Demeter by the National
Futures Association:
Mr. Douglas J. Ketterer was confirmed as a principal of Demeter
by the National Futures Association on October 27, 2003.
Mr. Jeffrey S. Swartz was confirmed as a principal of Demeter by
the National Futures Association on October 23, 2003.
Item 6. EXHIBITS AND REPORTS ON FORM 8-K
(A) Exhibits
3.01 Limited Partnership Agreement of the Partnership, dated
as of October 28, 1988, is incorporated by reference to
Exhibit 3.01 and Exhibit 3.02 of the Partnership's
Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 24662).
10.01 Management Agreement among the Partnership, Demeter
Management Corporation and Dean Witter Futures & Currency
Management Inc., dated as of October 28, 1988, is
incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.02 of the
Partnership's Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File
No. 24462).
10.02 Amended and Restated Customer Agreement between the
Partnership and Morgan Stanley DW Inc., dated as of May
19, 2000, is incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.01
of the Partnership's Form 8-K (File No. 0-17446) filed
with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November
13, 2001.
10.03 Commodity Futures Customer Agreement between Morgan
Stanley & Co. Incorporated and the Partnership, and
acknowledged and agreed to by Morgan Stanley DW Inc.,
dated as of May 1, 2000, is incorporated by reference to
Exhibit 10.02 of the Partnership's Form 8-K (File No. 0-
17446) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission
on November 13, 2001.
10.04 Customer Agreement between the Partnership and Morgan
Stanley & Co. International Limited, dated as of May 1,
2000, is incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.04 of
the Partnership's Form 8-K (File No. 0-17446) filed with
the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 13,
2001.
10.05 Foreign Exchange and Options Master Agreement between
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated and the Partnership,
dated as of April 30, 2000, is incorporated by reference
to Exhibit 10.05 of the Partnership's Form 8-K (File No.
0-17446) filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on November 13, 2001.
10.06 Securities Account Control Agreement among the
Partnership, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and
Morgan Stanley DW Inc., dated as of May 1, 2000, is
incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.03 of the
Partnership's Form 8-K (File No. 0-17446) filed with the
Securities and Exchange Commission on November 13, 2001.
31.01 Certification of President of Demeter Management
Corporation, the general partner of the Partnership,
pursuant to rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e), as adopted
pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
31.02 Certification of Chief Financial Officer of Demeter
Management Corporation, the general partner of the
Partnership, pursuant to rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e),
as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of 2002.
32.01 Certification of President of Demeter Management
Corporation, the general partner of the Partnership,
pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as adopted
pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
32.02 Certification of Chief Financial Officer of Demeter
Management Corporation, the general partner of the
Partnership, pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as
adopted pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act
of 2002.
(B) Reports on Form 8-K - None.
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,
the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its
behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
Dean Witter Diversified Futures Fund II L.P.
(Registrant)
By: Demeter Management Corporation
(General Partner)
November 14, 2003 By:/s/Jeffrey D. Hahn
Jeffrey D. Hahn
Chief Financial Officer
The General Partner which signed the above is the only party
authorized to act for the Registrant. The Registrant has no
principal executive officer, principal financial officer,
controller, or principal accounting officer and has no Board of
Directors.
1283: