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UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 10-Q
[X] Quarterly report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2003 or
[ ] Transition report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the transition period from to__________________
Commission File Number 0-17446
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Delaware 13-3490286
(State or other jurisdiction of (I.R.S. Employer
incorporation or organization) Identification No.)
Demeter Management Corporation
825 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
New York, NY 10022
(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)
Registrant?s telephone number, including area code (212) 310-6444
(Former name, former address, and former fiscal year, if changed
since last report)
Indicate by check-mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all
reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or
for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file
such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing
requirements for the past 90 days.
Yes X No___________
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
INDEX TO QUARTERLY REPORT ON FORM 10-Q
June 30, 2003
PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
Item 1. Financial Statements
Statements of Financial Condition as of June 30, 2003
(Unaudited) and December 31, 2002..........................2
Statements of Operations for the Quarters Ended
June 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited).........................3
Statements of Operations for the Six Months Ended
June 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited).........................4
Statements of Changes in Partners? Capital for the
Six Months Ended June 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited)........5
Statements of Cash Flows for the Six Months Ended
June 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited).........................6
Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited)...............7-11
Item 2. Management?s Discussion and Analysis of
Financial Condition and Results of Operations.......12-21
Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about
Market Risk.........................................22-34
Item 4. Controls and Procedures................................35
Part II. OTHER INFORMATION
Item 1. Legal Proceedings......................................36
Item 5. Other Information......................................36
Item 6. Exhibits and Reports on Form 8-K....................36?38
PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
Item 1. Financial Statements
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION
June 30, December 31,
2003 2002
$ $
(Unaudited)
ASSETS
Equity in futures interests trading accounts:
Cash 9,156,037 8,415,187
Net unrealized gain on open contracts (MS&Co.) 204,302 1,195,269
Net unrealized loss on open contracts (MSIL) (167,471) (206,630)
Total net unrealized gain on open contracts 36,831 988,639
Total Trading Equity 9,192,868 9,403,826
Interest receivable (Morgan Stanley DW) 6,369 7,278
Due from Morgan Stanley DW 219 ?
Total Assets 9,199,456 9,411,104
LIABILITIES AND PARTNERS? CAPITAL
Liabilities
Redemptions payable 500,919 41,293
Accrued management fees (MSFCM) 22,998 23,527
Accrued incentive fees (MSFCM) ? 279,771
Total Liabilities 523,917 344,591
Partners? Capital
Limited Partners (2,034.834 and
2,168.038 Units, respectively) 8,399,589 8,651,504
General Partner (66.850 and
104.000 Units, respectively) 275,950 415,009
Total Partners? Capital 8,675,539 9,066,513
Total Liabilities and Partners? Capital 9,199,456 9,411,104
NET ASSET VALUE PER UNIT 4,127.90 3,990.48
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(Unaudited)
For the Quarters Ended June 30,
2003 2002
$ $
REVENUES
Trading profit (loss):
Realized (374,428) (70,295)
Net change in unrealized (127,263) 1,743,746
Total Trading Results (501,691) 1,673,451
Interest income (Morgan Stanley DW) 22,084 27,595
Total (479,607) 1,701,046
EXPENSES
Brokerage commissions (Morgan Stanley DW) 135,196 110,381
Management fees (MSFCM) 75,592 62,904
Transaction fees and costs 6,569 5,534
Incentive fees (MSFCM) ? 203,374
Total 217,357 382,193
NET INCOME (LOSS) (696,964) 1,318,853
NET INCOME (LOSS) ALLOCATION
Limited Partners (676,005) 1,262,991
General Partner (20,959) 55,862
NET INCOME (LOSS) PER UNIT
Limited Partners (313.52) 537.13
General Partner (313.52) 537.13
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(Unaudited)
For the Six Months Ended June 30,
2003 2002
$ $
REVENUES
Trading profit (loss):
Realized 1,848,802 431,629
Net change in unrealized (951,808) 1,396,588
Total Trading Results 896,994 1,828,217
Interest income (Morgan Stanley DW) 45,881 54,898
Total 942,875 1,883,115
EXPENSES
Brokerage commissions (Morgan Stanley DW) 269,330 202,172
Incentive fees (MSFCM) 178,017 224,423
Management fees (MSFCM) 156,141 122,022
Transaction fees and costs 11,794 9,930
Total 615,282 558,547
NET INCOME 327,593 1,324,568
NET INCOME ALLOCATION
Limited Partners 301,652 1,268,467
General Partner 25,941 56,101
NET INCOME PER UNIT
Limited Partners 137.42 539.43
General Partner 137.42 539.43
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF CHANGES IN PARTNERS? CAPITAL
For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2003 and 2002
(Unaudited)
Units of
Partnership Limited General
Interest Partners Partner Total
$ $ $
Partners? Capital,
December 31, 2001 2,493.009 7,485,348 325,857 7,811,205
Net Income ? 1,268,467 56,101 1,324,568
Redemptions (172.466) (613,179) ? (613,179)
Partners? Capital,
June 30, 2002 2,320.543 8,140,636 381,958 8,522,594
Partners? Capital,
December 31, 2002 2,272.038 8,651,504 415,009 9,066,513
Net Income ? 301,652 25,941 327,593
Redemptions (170.354) (553,567) (165,000) (718,567)
Partners? Capital,
June 30, 2003 2,101.684 8,399,589 275,950 8,675,539
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(Unaudited)
For the Six Months Ended June 30,
2003 2002
$ $
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net income 327,593 1,324,568
Noncash item included in net income:
Net change in unrealized 951,808 (1,396,588)
(Increase) decrease in operating assets:
Interest receivable (Morgan Stanley DW) 909 261
Due from Morgan Stanley DW (219) ?
Increase (decrease) in operating liabilities:
Accrued management fees (MSFCM) (529) 2,989
Accrued incentive fees (MSFCM) (279,771) 192,687
Net cash provided by operating activities 999,791 123,917
CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Increase in redemptions payable 459,626 288,335
Redemptions of Units (718,567) (613,179)
Net cash used for financing activities (258,941) (324,844)
Net increase (decrease) in cash 740,850 (200,927)
Balance at beginning of period 8,415,187 7,965,887
Balance at end of period 9,156,037 7,764,960
The accompanying notes are an integral part
of these financial statements.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
June 30, 2003
(Unaudited)
The unaudited financial statements contained herein include, in
the opinion of management, all adjustments necessary for a fair
presentation of the results of operations and financial condition
of Dean Witter Diversified Futures Fund II L.P. (the
?Partnership?). The financial statements and condensed notes
herein should be read in conjunction with the Partnership?s
December 31, 2002 Annual Report on Form 10-K.
1. Organization
Dean Witter Diversified Futures Fund II L.P. is a Delaware limited
partnership organized to engage primarily in the speculative
trading of futures and forward contracts on physical commodities,
and other commodity interests, including, but not limited to,
foreign currencies, financial instruments, metals, energy and
agricultural products (collectively, ?futures interests?).
The Partnership?s general partner is Demeter Management
Corporation (?Demeter?). The non-clearing commodity broker is
Morgan Stanley DW Inc. (?Morgan Stanley DW?). The clearing
commodity brokers are Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (?MS &
Co.?) and Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited (?MSIL?).
The trading manager is Morgan Stanley Futures & Currency
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONTINUED)
Management Inc.(?MSFCM? or the ?Trading Manager?). Demeter, Morgan
Stanley DW, MS & Co., MSIL and MSFCM are wholly-owned subsidiaries
of Morgan Stanley.
2. Related Party Transactions
The Partnership?s cash is on deposit with Morgan Stanley DW, MS &
Co. and MSIL in futures and forwards trading accounts to meet
margin requirements as needed. Morgan Stanley DW pays interest on
these funds based on current 13-week U.S. Treasury bills. The
Partnership pays brokerage commissions to Morgan Stanley DW.
Management fees and incentive fees, if any, incurred by the
Partnership are paid to MSFCM.
3. Financial Instruments
The Partnership trades futures and forward contracts on physical
commodities and other commodity interests, including, but not
limited to, foreign currencies, financial instruments, metals,
energy and agricultural products. Futures and forwards represent
contracts for delayed delivery of an instrument at a specified
date and price. Risk arises from changes in the value of these
contracts and the potential inability of counterparties to perform
under the terms of the contracts. There are numerous factors
which may significantly influence the market value of these
contracts, including interest rate volatility.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONTINUED)
The market value of contracts is based on closing prices quoted
by the exchange, bank or clearing firm through which the
contracts are traded.
The Partnership?s contracts are accounted for on a trade-date
basis and marked to market on a daily basis. The Partnership
accounts for its derivative investments in accordance with the
provisions of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.
133, ?Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging
Activities? (?SFAS No. 133?). SFAS No.133 defines a derivative as
a financial instrument or other contract that has all three of
the following characteristics:
1) One or more underlying notional amounts or payment
provisions;
2) Requires no initial net investment or a smaller initial net
investment than would be required relative to changes in
market factors;
3) Terms require or permit net settlement.
Generally, derivatives include futures, forward, swaps or options
contracts and other financial instruments with similar
characteristics such as caps, floors and collars.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONTINUED)
The net unrealized gains (losses) on open contracts, reported as a
component of ?Equity in futures interests trading accounts? on the
statements of financial condition, and their longest contract
maturities were as follows:
Net Unrealized Gains (Losses)
on Open Contracts Longest Maturities
Exchange- Off-Exchange- Exchange- Off-Exchange-
Date Traded Traded Total Traded Traded
$ $ $
Jun. 30, 2003 (252,411) 289,242 36,831 Mar. 2005 Sep. 2003
Dec. 31, 2002 185,108 803,531 988,639 Sep. 2004 Apr. 2003
The Partnership has credit risk associated with counterparty non-
performance. The credit risk associated with the instruments in
which the Partnership is involved is limited to the amounts
reflected in the Partnership?s statements of financial condition.
The Partnership also has credit risk because Morgan Stanley DW, MS
& Co. and MSIL act as the futures commission merchants or the
counterparties with respect to most of the Partnership?s assets.
Exchange-traded futures contracts are marked to market on a daily
basis with variations in value settled on a daily basis. Morgan
Stanley DW, MS & Co. and MSIL, each as a futures commission
merchant for the Partnership?s exchange-traded futures contracts,
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONCLUDED)
are required, pursuant to regulations of the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission (?CFTC?), to segregate from their own assets,
and for the sole benefit of their commodity customers, all funds
held by them with respect to exchange-traded futures contracts,
including an amount equal to the net unrealized gains (losses) on
all open futures contracts, which funds, in the aggregate, totaled
$8,903,626 and $8,600,295 at June 30, 2003 and December 31, 2002,
respectively. With respect to the Partnership?s off-exchange-
traded forward currency contracts, there are no daily settlements
of variations in value nor is there any requirement that an amount
equal to the net unrealized gains (losses) on open forward
contracts be segregated. With respect to those off-exchange-
traded forward currency contracts, the Partnership is at risk to
the ability of MS & Co., the sole counterparty on all of such
contracts, to perform. The Partnership has a netting agreement
with MS & Co. This agreement, which seeks to reduce both the
Partnership?s and MS & Co.?s exposure on off-exchange-traded
forward currency contracts, should materially decrease the
Partnership?s credit risk in the event of MS & Co.?s bankruptcy or
insolvency.
Item 2. MANAGEMENT?S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL
CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Liquidity. The Partnership deposits its assets with Morgan
Stanley DW as non-clearing broker and MS & Co. and MSIL as
clearing brokers in separate futures and forwards trading accounts
established for the Trading Manager, which assets are used as
margin to engage in trading. The assets are held in either non-
interest bearing bank accounts or in securities and instruments
permitted by the CFTC for investment of customer segregated or
secured funds. The Partnership?s assets held by the commodity
brokers may be used as margin solely for the Partnership?s
trading. Since the Partnership?s sole purpose is to trade in
futures and forwards, it is expected that the Partnership will
continue to own such liquid assets for margin purposes.
The Partnership?s investment in futures and forwards may, from
time to time, be illiquid. Most U.S. futures exchanges limit
fluctuations in prices during a single day by regulations referred
to as ?daily price fluctuations limits? or ?daily limits?. Trades
may not be executed at prices beyond the daily limit. If the
price for a particular futures contract has increased or decreased
by an amount equal to the daily limit, positions in that futures
contract can neither be taken nor liquidated unless traders are
willing to effect trades at or within the limit. Futures prices
have occasionally moved the daily limit for several consecutive
days with little or no trading. These market conditions could
prevent the Partnership from promptly liquidating its
futures contracts and result in restrictions on redemptions.
There is no limitation on daily price moves in trading forward
contracts on foreign currencies. The markets for some world
currencies have low trading volume and are illiquid, which may
prevent the Partnership from trading in potentially profitable
markets or prevent the Partnership from promptly liquidating
unfavorable positions in such markets, subjecting it to
substantial losses. Either of these market conditions could
result in restrictions on redemptions.
The Partnership has never had illiquidity affect a material
portion of its assets. Furthermore, there are no material trends,
demands, commitments, events or uncertainties known at the present
time that will result in, or that are reasonably likely to result
in, the Partnership?s liquidity increasing or decreasing in any
material way.
Capital Resources. The Partnership does not have, nor expect to
have, any capital assets. Redemptions of additional units of
limited partnership interest (?Unit(s)?) in the future will affect
the amount of funds available for investment in futures and
forwards in subsequent periods. It is not possible to estimate
the amount, and therefore the impact, of future redemptions of
Units.
There are no known material trends, favorable or
unfavorable, that would affect, nor any expected material changes
to, the Partnership?s capital resource arrangements at the present
time. The Partnership has no off-balance sheet arrangements, nor
contractual obligations or commercial commitments to make future
payments that would affect the Partnership?s liquidity or capital
resources. The contracts traded by the Partnership are accounted
for on a trade-date basis and marked to market on a daily basis.
The value of futures contracts is the settlement price on the
exchange on which that futures contract is traded on a particular
day and the value of foreign currency forward contracts is based
on the spot rate as of the close of business, New York City time,
on a given day.
Results of Operations
General. The Partnership?s results depend on its Trading Manager
and the ability of the Trading Manager?s trading programs to take
advantage of price movements or other profit opportunities in the
futures and forwards markets. The following presents a summary
of the Partnership?s operations for the three and six month
periods ended June 30, 2003 and 2002 and a general discussion of
its trading activities during each period. It is important to
note, however, that the Trading Manager trades in various markets
at different times and that prior activity in a particular market
does not mean that such market will be actively traded by the
Trading Manager or will be profitable in the future.
Consequently, the results of operations of the Partnership are
difficult to discuss other than in the context of the Trading
Manager?s trading activities on behalf of the Partnership and how
the Partnership has performed in the past.
The Partnership?s results of operations set forth in the financial
statements on pages 2 through 11 of this report were prepared in
accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the
United States of America, which require the use of certain
accounting policies that affect the amounts reported in these
financial statements, including the following: The contracts the
Partnership trades are accounted for on a trade-date basis and
marked to market on a daily basis. The difference between their
cost and market value is recorded on the Statements of Operations
as ?Net change in unrealized profit/loss? for open (unrealized)
contracts, and recorded as ?Realized profit/loss? when open
positions are closed out, and the sum of these amounts constitutes
the Partnership?s trading revenues. Interest income revenue, as
well as management fees, incentive fees and brokerage commission
expenses of the Partnership are recorded on an accrual basis.
Demeter believes that, based on the nature of the operations of
the Partnership, no assumptions relating to the application of
critical accounting policies other than those presently used could
reasonably affect reported amounts.
For the Quarter and Six Months Ended June 30, 2003
For the quarter ended June 30, 2003, the Partnership recorded
total trading losses, net of interest income, of $479,607 and
posted a decrease in net asset value per Unit. The most
significant losses of approximately 4.9% were recorded in the
metals markets during April and May from short positions in
aluminum, nickel and copper futures as prices reversed higher amid
renewed optimism concerning future growth in industrial demand and
a rebound in U.S. equity prices. During June, losses in this
sector resulted from long positions in aluminum futures as prices
declined in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the U.S.
Federal Reserve. Additional losses of approximately 1.6% were
recorded in the energy markets from long positions in natural gas
future as prices reversed sharply lower following news of larger
than expected U.S. reserves. Smaller losses of approximately 1.0%
were recorded in the agricultural markets during May from short
positions in corn futures as prices moved higher amid concerns of
weather related crop damage in the U.S. midwest. A portion of the
Partnership?s overall losses was offset by gains of approximately
1.0% in the currency markets primarily during April and May from
long positions in the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar as
the value of the Australian currency strengthened amid significant
interest rate differentials, uncertainty regarding the Bush
Administration?s economic policy, renewed fears of potential
terrorist attacks against American interests, and investor
preference for non-U.S. dollar denominated assets. Elsewhere in
the currency markets, gains were recorded from long
positions in the euro versus the Japanese yen and the British
pound as the value of the euro continued to trend higher following
the decision by the European Central Bank to leave interest rates
unchanged. Additional gains of approximately 0.9% in the global
stock index markets were recorded during May and June from long
positions in S&P 500 Index futures as equity prices rallied in
response to renewed expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut and
the release of positive economic data. Total expenses for the
three months ended June 30, 2003 were $217,357, resulting in a net
loss of $696,964. The net asset value of a Unit decreased from
$4,441.42 at March 31, 2003 to $4,127.90 at June 30, 2003.
For the six months ended June 30, 2003, the Partnership recorded
total trading revenues, including interest income, of $942,875 and
posted an increase in net asset value per Unit. Gains of
approximately 7.1% were recorded in the energy markets, primarily
during January and February from long positions in natural gas
futures as prices trended higher in response to prolonged frigid
temperatures in the northeastern and midwestern United States.
Additional gains were recorded from long positions in crude oil
futures as prices increased amid the looming threat of military
action against Iraq and an overall decline in inventories. In the
currency markets, gains of approximately 5.5% were produced from
positions in the British pound versus the euro as the value of the
pound decreased due to weak economic data out of the U.K and an
interest rate cut by the Bank of England. Additional gains
were recorded from long positions in the Australian dollar versus
the U.S. dollar as the value of the Australian currency increased
on the heels of higher commodity prices. During May, gains
resulted from long positions in the euro versus the Japanese yen
as the value of the euro continued to trend higher following the
European Central Bank?s decision to leave interest rates
unchanged. Gains of approximately 2.4% were established in the
global interest rate markets from long positions in European and
U.S. interest rate futures as prices continued to trend higher
amid continued uncertainty in the global equity markets, investor
demand for fixed income investments, and the possibility of an
interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the global
stock index markets, gains of approximately 0.9% resulted from
long positions in S&P 500 Index futures as equity prices rallied
during May and June in response to the prospect of lower interest
rates, the release of positive economic data, and renewed
expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut. A portion of the
Partnership?s overall gains was offset by losses of approximately
4.9% recorded in the metals markets, primarily during May and
June, from short positions in aluminum, copper and nickel futures
resulted in losses as prices reversed higher, buoyed by a rebound
in U.S. equity prices and hopes for increased industrial demand.
In the agricultural markets, losses of approximately 2.0% were
experienced during May from short positions in corn futures as
prices moved higher early in the month amid concerns of weather
related crop damage in the U.S. midwest. Total expenses
for the six months ended June 30, 2003 were $615,282, resulting in
net income of $327,593. The net asset value of a Unit increased
from $3,990.48 at December 31, 2002 to $4,127.90 at June 30, 2003.
For the Quarter and Six Months ended June 30, 2002
For the quarter ended June 30, 2002, the Partnership recorded
total trading revenues, including interest income, of $1,701,046
and posted an increase in net asset value per Unit. The most
significant gains of approximately 26.9% were recorded in the
currency markets primarily during May and June from previously
established long positions in the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, euro
and Swedish krona relative to the U.S. dollar as the value of
these currencies strengthened against the U.S. dollar amid
falling equity prices, concerns regarding corporate accounting
integrity and weak U.S. economic data. Significant currency
gains were also recorded from long positions in the euro relative
to the British pound. Additional gains of approximately 4.9%
were recorded in the global interest rate futures markets
primarily during June from long positions in Japanese and German
interest rate futures as prices trended higher following weakness
in U.S. equity markets, geopolitical concerns and uncertainty
surrounding a global economic recovery. A portion of the
Partnership?s gains was offset by losses of approximately 7.1%
recorded in the energy markets primarily during May from
previously established long futures positions in crude oil and
its related products as prices moved lower on supply and
demand concerns. Additional losses of approximately 2.5% were
recorded in the metals markets primarily during April from short
positions in aluminum futures as prices climbed higher on
sentiment that an improving U.S. economy would boost demand.
Total expenses for the three months ended June 30, 2002 were
$382,193, resulting in net income of $1,318,853. The net asset
value of a Unit increased from $3,135.54 at March 31, 2002 to
$3,672.67 at June 30, 2002.
For the six months ended June 30, 2002, the Partnership recorded
total trading revenues, including interest income, of $1,883,115
and posted an increase in net asset value per Unit. The most
significant gains of approximately 16.9% were recorded in the
currency markets primarily during May and June from previously
established long positions in the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, euro
and Swedish krona relative to the U.S. dollar as the value of
these currencies strengthened against the U.S. dollar amid
falling equity prices, concerns regarding corporate accounting
integrity, and weak U.S. economic data. Significant currency
gains were also recorded from long positions in the euro relative
to the British pound. Additional gains of approximately 4.5%
were recorded in the global interest rate futures markets
primarily during June from long positions in Japanese and German
interest rate futures as prices trended higher following weakness
in U.S. equity markets, geopolitical concerns and uncertainty
surrounding a global economic recovery. Gains of
approximately 1.4% were recorded in the energy markets primarily
during March from previously established long positions in crude
oil futures as prices trended higher amid escalating Middle East
tensions and supply and demand factors. A portion of the
Partnership?s gains was offset by losses of approximately 3.1%
recorded in the metals markets primarily during April from short
positions in aluminum futures as prices climbed higher on
sentiment that an improving U.S. economy would boost demand.
Total expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2002 were
$558,547, resulting in net income of $1,324,568. The net asset
value of a Unit increased from $3,133.24 at December 31, 2001 to
$3,672.67 at June 30, 2002.
Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Introduction
The Partnership is a commodity pool engaged primarily in the
speculative trading of futures and forwards. The market-sensitive
instruments held by the Partnership are acquired for speculative
trading purposes only and, as a result, all or substantially all
of the Partnership?s assets are at risk of trading loss. Unlike
an operating company, the risk of market-sensitive instruments is
central, not incidental, to the Partnership?s main business
activities.
The futures and forwards traded by the Partnership involve varying
degrees of related market risk. Market risk is often dependent
upon changes in the level or volatility of interest rates,
exchange rates, and prices of financial instruments and
commodities. Fluctuations in market risk based upon these factors
result in frequent changes in the fair value of the Partnership?s
open positions, and consequently, in its earnings and cash flow.
The Partnership?s total market risk is influenced by a wide
variety of factors, including the diversification among the
Partnership?s open positions, the volatility present within the
markets, and the liquidity of the markets. At different times,
each of these factors may act to increase or decrease the market
risk associated with the Partnership.
The Partnership?s past performance is not necessarily
indicative of its future results. Any attempt to numerically
quantify the Partnership?s market risk is limited by the
uncertainty of its speculative trading. The Partnership?s
speculative trading may cause future losses and volatility (i.e.,
?risk of ruin?) that far exceed the Partnership?s experience to
date or any reasonable expectations based upon historical changes
in market value.
Quantifying the Partnership?s Trading Value at Risk
The following quantitative disclosures regarding the Partnership?s
market risk exposures contain ?forward-looking statements? within
the meaning of the safe harbor from civil liability provided for
such statements by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
1995 (set forth in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934). All
quantitative disclosures in this section are deemed to be forward-
looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor, except for
statements of historical fact.
The Partnership accounts for open positions on the basis of mark-
to-market accounting principles. Any loss in the market value of
the Partnership?s open positions is directly reflected in the
Partnership?s earnings, whether realized or unrealized, and its
cash flow. Profits and losses on open positions of exchange-
traded futures and forwards are settled daily through
variation margin.
The Partnership?s risk exposure in the market sectors traded by
the Trading Manager is estimated below in terms of Value at Risk
(?VaR?). The VaR model used by the Partnership includes many
variables that could change the market value of the Partnership?s
trading portfolio. The Partnership estimates VaR using a model
based upon historical simulation with a confidence level of 99%.
Historical simulation involves constructing a distribution of
hypothetical daily changes in the value of a trading portfolio.
The VaR model takes into account linear exposures to price and
interest rate risk. Market risks that are incorporated in the
VaR model include equity and commodity prices, interest rates,
foreign exchange rates, and correlation among these variables.
The hypothetical changes in portfolio value are based on daily
percentage changes observed in key market indices or other market
factors (?market risk factors?) to which the portfolio is
sensitive. The historical observation period of the
Partnership?s VaR is approximately four years. The one-day 99%
confidence level of the Partnership?s VaR corresponds to the
negative change in portfolio value that, based on observed market
risk factors, would have been exceeded once in 100 trading days.
In other words, one-day VaR for a portfolio is a number such that
losses in this portfolio are estimated to exceed the VaR only one
day in 100. VaR typically does not represent the worst case
outcome.
VaR is calculated using historical simulation. Demeter uses
approximately four years of daily market data (1,000 observations)
and revalues its portfolio (using delta-gamma approximations) for
each of the historical market moves that occurred over this time
period. This generates a probability distribution of daily
?simulated profit and loss? outcomes. The VaR is the appropriate
percentile of this distribution. For example, the 99% one-day VaR
would represent the 10th worst outcome from Demeter?s simulated
profit and loss series.
The Partnership?s VaR computations are based on the risk
representation of the underlying benchmark for each instrument or
contract and do not distinguish between exchange and non-
exchange-traded instruments and are also not based on exchange
and/or dealer-based margin requirements.
VaR models, including the Partnership?s, are continuously
evolving as trading portfolios become more diverse and modeling
techniques and systems capabilities improve. Please note that
the VaR model is used to numerically quantify market risk for
historic reporting purposes only and is not utilized by either
Demeter or the Trading Manager in their daily risk management
activities. Please further note that VaR as described above may
not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other
entities.
The Partnership?s Value at Risk in Different Market Sectors
The following table indicates the VaR associated with the
Partnership?s open positions as a percentage of total net assets
by primary market risk category at June 30, 2003 and 2002. At
both June 30, 2003 and 2002, the Partnership?s total
capitalization was approximately $9 million.
Primary Market June 30, 2003 June 30, 2002
Risk Category Value at Risk Value at Risk
Interest Rate (2.09)% (3.12)%
Currency (0.86) (2.93)
Equity (0.23) (0.14)
Commodity (1.98) (0.99)
Aggregate Value at Risk (2.98)% (4.24)%
The VaR for a market category represents the one-day downside risk
for the aggregate exposures associated with this market category.
The Aggregate Value at Risk above represents the VaR of the
Partnership?s open positions across all the market categories, and
is less than the sum of the VaRs for all such market categories
due to the diversification benefit across asset classes.
The table above represents the VaR of the Partnership?s open
positions at June 30, 2003 and 2002 only and is not necessarily
representative of either the historic or future risk of an
investment in the Partnership. Because the Partnership?s only
business is the speculative trading of futures and
forwards, the composition of its trading portfolio can change
significantly over any given time period, or even within a single
trading day. Any changes in open positions could positively or
negatively materially impact market risk as measured by VaR.
The table below supplements the quarter-end VaR by presenting the
Partnership?s high, low and average VaR, as a percentage of total
net assets for the four quarterly reporting periods from July 1,
2002 through June 30, 2003.
Primary Market Risk Category High Low Average
Interest Rate (2.41)% (1.19)% (1.73)%
Currency (3.35) (0.86) (2.02)
Equity (0.23) - (0.11)
Commodity (2.53) (1.74) (2.12)
Aggregate Value at Risk (4.76)% (2.77)% (3.52)%
Limitations on Value at Risk as an Assessment of Market Risk
The face value of the market sector instruments held by the
Partnership is typically many times the applicable margin
requirements. Margin requirements generally range between 2% and
15% of contract face value. Additionally, the use of leverage
causes the face value of the market sector instruments held by the
Partnership to typically be many times the total capitalization of
the Partnership. The value of the Partnership?s open positions
thus creates a ?risk of ruin? not typically found in other
investments. The relative size of the positions held may
cause the Partnership to incur losses greatly in excess of VaR
within a short period of time, given the effects of the leverage
employed and market volatility. The VaR tables above, as well as
the past performance of the Partnership, give no indication of
such ?risk of ruin?. In addition, VaR risk measures should be
viewed in light of the methodology?s limitations, which include
the following:
* past changes in market risk factors will not always result in
accurate predictions of the distributions and correlations of
future market movements;
* changes in portfolio value caused by market movements may
differ from those of the VaR model;
* VaR results reflect past trading positions while future risk
depends on future positions;
* VaR using a one-day time horizon does not fully capture the
market risk of positions that cannot be liquidated or hedged
within one day; and
* the historical market risk factor data used for VaR estimation
may provide only limited insight into losses that could be
incurred under certain unusual market movements.
The VaR tables above present the results of the Partnership?s VaR
for each of the Partnership?s market risk exposures and on an
aggregate basis at June 30, 2003 and 2002, and for the end of the
four quarterly reporting periods from July 1, 2002 through
June 30, 2003. Since VaR is based on historical data, VaR should
not be viewed as predictive of the Partnership?s future financial
performance or its ability to manage or monitor risk. There can
be no assurance that the Partnership?s actual losses on a
particular day will not exceed the VaR amounts indicated above or
that such losses will not occur more than once in 100 trading
days.
Non-Trading Risk
The Partnership has non-trading market risk on its foreign cash
balances not needed for margin. These balances and any market
risk they may represent are immaterial.
At June 30, 2003, the Partnership?s cash balance at Morgan Stanley
DW was approximately 107% of its total net asset value. A decline
in short-term interest rates will result in a decline in the
Partnership?s cash management income. This cash flow risk is not
considered to be material.
Materiality, as used throughout this section, is based on an
assessment of reasonably possible market movements and any
associated potential losses, taking into account the leverage,
optionality and multiplier features of the Partnership?s market-
sensitive instruments, in relation to the Partnership?s net
assets.
Qualitative Disclosures Regarding Primary Trading Risk Exposures
The following qualitative disclosures regarding the Partnership?s
market risk exposures ? except for (A) those disclosures that are
statements of historical fact and (B) the descriptions of how the
Partnership manages its primary market risk exposures ? constitute
forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of
the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act.
The Partnership?s primary market risk exposures as well as the
strategies used and to be used by Demeter and the Trading Manager
for managing such exposures are subject to numerous uncertainties,
contingencies and risks, any one of which could cause the actual
results of the Partnership?s risk controls to differ materially
from the objectives of such strategies. Government interventions,
defaults and expropriations, illiquid markets, the emergence of
dominant fundamental factors, political upheavals, changes in
historical price relationships, an influx of new market
participants, increased regulation and many other factors could
result in material losses as well as in material changes to the
risk exposures and the risk management strategies of the
Partnership. Investors must be prepared to lose all or
substantially all of their investment in the Partnership.
The following were the primary trading risk exposures of the
Partnership at June 30, 2003, by market sector. It may be
anticipated, however, that these market exposures will vary
materially over time.
Interest Rate. The Partnership?s primary market exposure at June
30, 2003 was to the global interest rate complex. Exposure was
primarily spread across the Japanese, European and U.S. interest
rate sectors. Interest rate movements directly affect the price
of the sovereign bond futures positions held by the Partnership
and indirectly affect the value of its stock index and currency
positions. Interest rate movements in one country, as well as
relative interest rate movements between countries, materially
impact the Partnership?s profitability. The Partnership?s primary
interest rate exposure is generally to interest rate fluctuations
in the U.S. and the other G-7 countries. The G-7 countries
consist of France, the U.S., Britain, Germany, Japan, Italy and
Canada. However, the Partnership also takes futures positions in
the government debt of smaller nations - e.g., Australia. Demeter
anticipates that G-7 countries and Australian interest rates will
remain the primary interest rate exposure of the Partnership for
the foreseeable future. The speculative futures positions held by
the Partnership may range from short to long-term instruments.
Consequently, changes in short, medium or long-term interest rates
may have an effect on the Partnership.
Currency. The second largest market exposure of the Partnership
at June 30, 2003 was to the currency sector. The Partnership?s
currency exposure is to exchange rate fluctuations,
primarily fluctuations which disrupt the historical pricing
relationships between different currencies and currency pairs.
Interest rate changes as well as political and general economic
conditions influence these fluctuations. The Partnership trades a
large number of currencies, including cross-rates - i.e.,
positions between two currencies other than the U.S. dollar. At
June 30, 2003, the Partnership?s major exposures were to the euro,
Japanese yen and British pound currency crosses and outright U.S.
dollar positions. Outright positions consist of the U.S. dollar
vs. other currencies. These other currencies include major and
minor currencies. Demeter does not anticipate that the risk
profile of the Partnership?s currency sector will change
significantly in the future. The currency trading VaR figure
includes foreign margin amounts converted into U.S. dollars with
an incremental adjustment to reflect the exchange rate risk
inherent to the U.S.-based Partnership in expressing VaR in a
functional currency other than U.S. dollars.
Equity. The Partnership?s primary equity exposure at June 30,
2003 was to equity price risk in the G-7 countries. The stock
index futures traded by the Partnership are by law limited to
futures on broadly-based indices. At June 30, 2003, the
Partnership?s exposure was primarily to the S&P 500 (U.S.) stock
index. The Partnership is exposed to the risk of adverse price
trends or static markets in the U.S. and Japanese stock indices.
Static markets would not cause major market changes but
would make it difficult for the Partnership to avoid being
?whipsawed? into numerous small losses.
Commodity.
Energy. At June 30, 2003, the Partnership?s energy exposure
was primarily to futures contracts in crude oil. Price
movements in this market result from political developments
in the Middle East, weather patterns and other economic
fundamentals. Significant profits and losses, which have
been experienced in the past, are expected to continue to be
experienced in the future.
Soft Commodities and Agriculturals. At June 30, 2003, the
Partnership had exposure to the markets that comprise these
sectors. Most of the exposure was to the coffee and corn
markets. Supply and demand inequalities, severe weather
disruptions and market expectations affect price movements in
these markets.
Metals. The Partnership's metals exposure at June 30, 2003
was to fluctuations in the price of base metals, such as
zinc. Economic forces, supply and demand inequalities,
geopolitical factors and market expectations influence price
movements in these markets. The Trading Manager, from time
to time, takes positions as market opportunities develop and
Demeter anticipates that the Partnership will continue
to do so.
Qualitative Disclosures Regarding Non-Trading Risk Exposure
The following was the only non-trading risk exposure of the
Partnership at June 30, 2003:
Foreign Currency Balances. The Partnership?s primary foreign
currency balance at June 30, 2003 was in Japanese yen. The
Partnership controls the non-trading risk of foreign currency
balances by regularly converting them back into U.S. dollars
upon liquidation of their respective positions.
Qualitative Disclosures Regarding Means of Managing Risk Exposure
The Partnership and the Trading Manager, separately, attempt to
manage the risk of the Partnership?s open positions in essentially
the same manner in all market categories traded. Demeter attempts
to manage market exposure by diversifying the Partnership?s assets
among different market sectors and trading approaches, and
monitoring the performance of the Trading Manager daily. In
addition, the Trading Manager establishes diversification
guidelines, often set in terms of the maximum margin to be
committed to positions in any one market sector or market-
sensitive instrument.
Demeter monitors and controls the risk of the Partnership?s
non-trading instrument, cash. Cash is the only Partnership
investment directed by Demeter, rather than the Trading Manager.
Item 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES
(a) As of the end of the period covered by this quarterly
report, the President and Chief Financial Officer of the
general partner, Demeter, have evaluated the effectiveness
of the Partnership?s disclosure controls and procedures
(as defined in Rules 13a?15(e) and 15d?15(e) of the
Exchange Act), and have judged such controls and
procedures to be effective.
(b) There have been no significant changes in the
Partnership?s internal controls or in other factors that
could significantly affect these controls subsequent to
the date of their evaluation.
PART II. OTHER INFORMATION
Item 1. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS
None.
Item 5. OTHER INFORMATION
Changes in Management. The following changes have been made to
the Board of Directors and Officers of Demeter:
Mr. Robert E. Murray resigned the position of Chairman of the
Board of Directors of Demeter.
Mr. Jeffrey A. Rothman, President and Director of Demeter, was
named Chairman of the Board of Directors of Demeter.
Item 6. EXHIBITS AND REPORTS ON FORM 8-K
(A) Exhibits
3.01 Limited Partnership Agreement of the Partnership, dated
as of October 28, 1988, is incorporated by reference to
Exhibit 3.01 and Exhibit 3.02 of the Partnership?s
Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 24662).
10.01 Management Agreement among the Partnership, Demeter
Management Corporation and Dean Witter Futures & Currency
Management Inc., dated as of October 28, 1988, is
incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.02 of the
Partnership?s Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File
No. 24462).
10.02 Amended and Restated Customer Agreement between the
Partnership and Morgan Stanley DW Inc., dated as of May
19, 2000, is incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.01
of the Partnership?s Form 8-K (File No. 0-17446) filed
with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November
13, 2001.
10.03 Commodity Futures Customer Agreement between Morgan
Stanley & Co. Incorporated and the Partnership, and
acknowledged and agreed to by Morgan Stanley DW Inc.,
dated as of May 1, 2000, is incorporated by reference to
Exhibit 10.02 of the Partnership?s Form 8-K (File No. 0-
17446) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission
on November 13, 2001.
10.04 Customer Agreement between the Partnership and Morgan
Stanley & Co. International Limited, dated as of May 1,
2000, is incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.04 of
the Partnership?s Form 8-K (File No. 0-17446) filed with
the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 13,
2001.
10.05 Foreign Exchange and Options Master Agreement between
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated and the Partnership,
dated as of April 30, 2000, is incorporated by reference
to Exhibit 10.05 of the Partnership?s Form 8-K (File No.
0-17446) filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on November 13, 2001.
10.06 Securities Account Control Agreement among the
Partnership, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and
Morgan Stanley DW Inc., dated as of May 1, 2000, is
incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.03 of the
Partnership?s Form 8-K (File No. 0-17446) filed with the
Securities and Exchange Commission on November 13, 2001.
31.01 Certification of President of Demeter Management
Corporation, the general partner of the Partnership,
pursuant to rules 13(a)-15(e) and 15d-15(e), as adopted
pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
31.02 Certification of Chief Financial Officer of Demeter
Management Corporation, the general partner of the
Partnership, pursuant to rules 13(a)-15(e) and 15d-15(e),
as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of 2002.
32.01 Certification of President of Demeter Management
Corporation, the general partner of the Partnership,
pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as adopted pursuant
to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
32.02 Certification of Chief Financial Officer of Demeter
Management Corporation, the general partner of the
Partnership, pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as
adopted pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act
of 2002.
(B) Reports on Form 8-K ? None.
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,
the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its
behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
Dean Witter Diversified Futures Fund II L.P.
(Registrant)
By: Demeter Management Corporation
(General Partner)
August 12, 2003 By: /s/Jeffrey D. Hahn
Jeffrey D. Hahn
Director and Chief Financial Officer
The General Partner which signed the above is the only party
authorized to act for the Registrant. The Registrant has no
principal executive officer, principal financial officer,
controller, or principal accounting officer and has no Board of
Directors.
DEAN WITTER DIVERSIFIED FUTURES FUND II L.P.
NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (CONCLUDED)